Migration During Armed Conflict: Nathalie E. Williams Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina April 19, 2012

Transcription

1 Migration During Armed Conflict: Nathalie E. Williams Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina April 19, 2012

2 Main Research Questions: 1. How does armed conflict affect population behaviors? Migration Marriage Childbearing Trauma, fear and mental health 2. How do these changes in individual level behaviors affect long-term demographic and social change?

3 Organization 1. Significance- why it s important 2. Theory migration and forced migration 3. Problems with existing theory 4. New theoretical advances 5. Empirical analysis using new theory and Chitwan data 6. Conclusions

4 Part 1 Significance Why social science research on armed conflict is important

5 Practical Significance Conflict is pervasive and continuing Major war (> 1000 battle deaths / year) Minor conflict * Data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (

6 Practical Significance 9 million refugees million asylum seekers million internally displaced 2 = 35 million registered conflict migrants + Many more un-registered and un-enumerated conflict-related migrants 1 UN High Commissioner for Refugees 2 Brookings Bern Project on Internal Displacement

7 Practical Significance Indirect effects of armed conflict WORLDWIDE - Economic collapse - Violence spreads across borders - Conflict related migrants ~ every country - Affects population growth and change

8 Part 2 Forced Migration What it means and why it s not always appropriate for social science

9 Forced Migration- media and aid organizations Photos by: United States Institute of Peace, UNHCR, Sri Lankan Army

10 Forced Migration- in law Forced vs. Voluntary migrants Political vs. Economic migrants No agency vs complete agency Appropriate for: legal / policy definitions of refugees and internally displaced migrants Legal refugee status = legal rights, protection, and aid Dependent on: Migration wasn t their choice, they cannot help themselves, and are in need of protection

11 Forced Migration- in academia Theory: When faced with physical threat from armed conflict, people will migrate away. Conflict (civil war, int l war, genocide, HR violations Forced migration. (# of refugees, internally displaced increases) Empirical Support: Clark 1989, Davenport et al 2003, Edmonston and Lee 1992, Gibney, Apodaca and McCann 1996, Moore and Shellman 2004, Schmeidl 1997, Weiner 1996, Zolberg et al 1989

12 Forced Migration- Problem!! Even in severe conflicts, many people do not migrate. Afghanistan: 90% NOT officially displaced Iraq: 82% NOT officially displaced Darfur: 43% NOT officially displaced Nepal: Most NOT officially displaced * Data from 2006, UNHCR

13 Assumptions If a person migrated during armed conflict, then that person migrated because of armed conflict. People are all the same - Everyone has the same probability of migrating during armed conflict (100%). All people have the ability and can migrate during armed conflict. Danger is the only thing that matters. Other considerations about life are not important. Realistic????

14 Forced Migration Studies Existing research and theory do not address: Why do some people migrate when faced with violence and some people do not? Your ideas??

15 Part 3 Sociological theory of migration during armed conflict A Risks, Resources, and Responses Framework

16 General theory Demographic Perspective 1. Consider all migrants, not just forced migrants or refugees, but also self-settled, unregistered, and internal migrants. 2. Survey all people who could migrate Representative population samples at the origin. Sociological Theory 3. Allow for agency: People have choices 4. Consider structures / constraints: conflict, communities, families, norms, roles, opportunities

17 Risks, Resources, and Responses Framework Basic Assumptions: 1. There are variances in how people - Experience -Perceive - And actively respond to armed conflict. 2. These variances will depend on their individual, family and community circumstances.

18 Experience- Risk - If people are threatened, we can expect them to change their behavior (migrate). - Different people face varying levels of threat - This depends on their social, economic, and political characteristics = Risk factors Community Family Conflict Threat Migration? Individual

19 Perceive- Risk - People perceive threat differently - Perception of threat (not actual threat) determines behavior - Perceptions of threat depends on their social, economic, and political characteristics Community Family Individual Conflict Actual Threat Perceived threat Migration?

20 Active responses and resources - People are active agents during armed conflict. - They can use whatever resources they have to seek protection, decrease threat and create opportunities for behavioral reactions to threat. - Different people have different social, economic, political, cultural, and personal resources available. Community Family Individual Conflict Actual Threat Perceived threat Migration?

21 Risks, Resources, and Responses 1. We must examine risk factors, perceptions and resources in order to understand people s responses to armed conflict. 2. Any individual, family, or community characteristic can affect actual risk, perceived risk, and be a resource at the same time. Community Family Conflict Actual Threat Perceived Threat Migration? Individual

22 Part 4 Quantitative analysis using the Risks, Resources, and Responses Framework Migration during the Maoist- Gov t conflict in Nepal

23 Study 1- Mass media and perceptions of threat Did use of the mass media affect migration during the conflict? If so, how? Individual: Watches tv Reads newspapers Listens to radio Conflict Actual Threat Perceived Threat Migration?

24 Study 1- Mass media and perceptions of threat Literature from US and Europe: Mass media provides information about crime, conflicts and dangers and makes them seem more dangerous. Hypothesis for migration in Chitwan: People who use the mass media will feel more afraid of violence during the conflict. People who use the mass media will be more likely to migrate during the conflict.

25 Study 1- Mass media and perceptions of threat Method: Population data: Chitwan Valley Family Study, ISER Conflict data: ISER and SATP Every month Compare characteristics of people who migrate after a gun battle to characteristics of people who don t migrate after gun battles

26 Study 1- Mass media and Outcome variable: - Migration perceptions of threat Predictor variables: - # of gun battles per month - Watches tv at least once a week - Listens to radio at least once a week - Reads newspaper at least once a week - Gender, age, education, married, # of children,

27 Study 1- Results Effects of major gun battles on migration, by newspapr reading 35% Predicted probability of migration 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Reads news Doesn't read # of gun battles per month People who read the newspaper were more likely to migrate after gun battles.

28 Study 1- Results Effects of major gun battles on migration, by TV watching 25% Predicted probability of migration 20% 15% 10% 5% Watches TV Doesn't watch 0% # of gun battles per month People who watched TV were more likely to migrate after gun battles.

29 Study 1 - Results Effects of major gun battles on migration, by radio listening Predicted probability of migration 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Radio No radio 0% # of gun battles per month People who listened to the radio were more likely to migrate after gun battles

30 Study 1- Summary of Results Evidence from this study supports the hypothesis: Watching TV, listening to the radio, and reading the newspaper increased the likelihood that a person would migrate away from Chitwan after a gun battle.

31 Study 2- Land and livestockresources Did owning land and livestock affect migration during the conflict? If so, how? Family: # kattha of land # of livestock Conflict Actual Threat Perceived Threat Migration?

32 Study 2- Land and livestock - Migration costs money - Land and livestock are a source of money (resource) - harvest from land - sell livestock or land Hypothesis for migration in Chitwan: People who have more land and livestock will be more likely to migrate away during the conflict.

33 Study 2- Land and Livestock Outcome variable: - Migration Predictor variables: - # of gun battles per month - # kattha of land owned - # of livestock owned - Gender, age, education, married, # of children,

34 Study 2- Results Predicted monthly probability of migration for men 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 0 kattha 10 kattha 24 kattha 40 kattha # of gun battles per month More land more likely to migrate away after a gun battle.

35 Study 2- Results Predicted monthly probability of migration for men 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 0 LSU 1.5 LSU 3 LSU 6 LSU # of gun battles per month More livestock more likely to migrate after a gun battle

36 Study 2- Summary of Results Evidence from this study supports the hypothesis: People who owned more land and more livestock were more likely to migrate away from Chitwan after a gun battle.

37 Conclusions 1. Many people do not migrate away during conflict. 2. Evidence that: - Perceptions of violence affected migration (mass media) - Economic resources affected migration (land and livestock) - Community characteristics, gender, # of kids, also important

38 Conclusions 3. Current theory about migration during armed conflict is too simplistic. 3. Need for more research to understand why some people migrate during conflict and some people do not.