Dirección Internacional de la Empresa Lección 1ª: La dinámica de integración global. Fases

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1 Dirección Internacional de la Empresa Lección 1ª: La dinámica de integración global. Fases Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Curso Emilio Ontiveros

2 Programa Introducción. El ámbito de estudio. 1. La dinámica de integración global. Fases. 2. Encuentros en la tercera fase. 3. La crisis global de La más compleja de la historia. 4. La irrupción de las multinacionales de los emergentes. 5. La nueva demografía. 6. Un mundo dispar: desigualdad y pobreza. 7. La búsqueda de la sostenibilidad. 8. Enfrentar la complejidad y la incertidumbre. 9. La internacionalización de la empresa española (1) 10. La internacionalización de la empresa española (2) 2

3 1. La dinámica de integración global. Fases 3

4 Globalization is, in some respects, a centuries-old phenomenon. Globalization in the general sense of the term is not new. All innovative and dynamic societies in history have been in some way cosmopolitan. Nor is it irreversible. The last episode of globalization from fell victim to a backlash following the First World War. CEPR,

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9 Differences between the two eras: a) While migration flows are lower now, economic openness has been rising during the past half century. b) Transport costs have declined, and tariffs have fallen substantially. c) The increase in intra-industry trade and outsourcing has been significant, as have increased foreign direct investment and financial capital flows. d) Distance and national borders are still powerful barriers to economic interaction. e) International migration is significantly lower than in the period. f) By some measures net capital flows are no bigger now than then, although they are broader in the sense that there is investment in a wider range of sectors. g) Trade between countries, taking account of their economic mass, falls off steeply with distance - trade in capital and ideas no less than trade in goods and services. CEPR,

10 Total Exports of Goods and Services As a Percentage of World GDP,

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13 Fuente: Paul Krugman 13

14 Fuente: Paul Krugman 14

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16 The most important lesson concerns the shape of the backlash against the globalization of This was motivated in part by its distributional consequences, and it generated protectionist responses - protection against agricultural imports in continental Europe and against manufactured imports and immigration in the New World. CEPR,

17 The nineteenth century saw a series of dramatic technological developments (chiefly the steamship and railroad), which were to have a profound impact on international trade. The impact on transport costs was substantial: British ocean freight rates were relatively constant between 1740 and 1840, before dropping by about 70% between 1840 and

18 Trade policy: Until the 1870s, trade policy reinforced these trends. Britain liberalized from 1815 to 1846, when it took the decisive step towards free trade. The years after 1860 saw significant European tariff cutting: for example, by 1877 Germany had virtually become a free trade country (Bairoch, 1989, p. 41). In the late 1870s, however, cheap New World and Russian grain began depressing European land values, sparking a powerful continental protectionist response. In the United States, Northern victory in the Civil War ensured high levels of protection for the rest of the century. On the other hand, in Asia declining transport costs did not have to contend with rising tariffs: China, Japan, Korea, Thailand, India and Indonesia all moved towards free trade, most forced to do so by colonial dominance or gunboat diplomacy. 18

19 The net result was substantial, world-wide commodity market integration. For example, Liverpool wheat prices exceeded Chicago prices by 58% in 1870, but by only 18% in 1895; the cotton price spread between London and Bombay fell from 57% in 1873 to 20% in 1913; while the jute price spread between London and Calcutta fell from 35% to 4%, and the rice price spread between London and Rangoon fell from 93% to 26%. (Collins, 1996). 19

20 Unweighted world average own tariff, 35 countries (%) 20

21 Globalisation and new technology the telephone, the steamship, the train had knitted the world together. John Maynard Keynes has a wonderful image of a Londoner of the time, sipping his morning tea in bed and ordering the various products of the whole earth to his door, much as he might today from Amazon and regarding this state of affairs as normal, certain and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement. The Economist, Dec 21st

22 Yet within a year, the world was embroiled in a most horrific war. It cost 9m lives and many times that number if you take in the various geopolitical tragedies it left in its wake, from the creation of Soviet Russia to the too-casual redrawing of Middle Eastern borders and the rise of Hitler. From being a friend of freedom, technology became an agent of brutality, slaughtering and enslaving people on a terrifying scale. Barriers shot up around the world, especially during the Great Depression of the 1930s. The globalisation that Keynes s Londoner enjoyed only really began again in 1945 or, some would argue, in the 1990s, when eastern Europe was set free and Deng Xiaoping s reforms began bearing fruit in China. The Economist, Dec 21st

23 Average tariffs on manufacturers, selected countries,

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38 Globalization Debate Does globalization cause poverty? Why are so many people opposed to globalization? Does globalization diminish cultural diversity? Can globalization be controlled? 38

39 Cuestiones relativas a la lección: a) Describe the shifts in the world economy over the past 30 years. What are the implications of these shifts for international businesses based in Europe? North America? Hong Kong/Taiwan? b) How have changes in technology contributed to the globalization of markets and production? Would the globalization of production and markets have been possible without these technological changes? 39

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41 Bibliografía adicional de la Lección 1: BORDO, MICHAEL D., ALAN M. TAYLOR AND JEFFREY G. WILLIAMSON (2001) Globalization in Historical Perspective Conference held May 4-5, Forthcoming from The University of Chicago Press CEPR (2002) Making Sense of Globalization. A Guide to the Economic Issues Capítulo Globalization, Policy Paper No. 8, Julio 2002 CRAFTS, NICHOLAS (2000) Globalization and Growth in The Twentieth Century IMF Working Paper (WP/00/44) FOREMAN-PECK, JAMES, ED. (1998 ) Historical Foundations of Globalization Edward Elgar, Northampton, Mass GALEZA, TADEUSZ (2011) Where Investment Goes Finance & Development, Septiembre, Vol. 48, No. 3 41

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