GOVERNMENT EVALUATION

Transcription

1 CNI Indicators ISSN Year 6 Number 3 September 216 CNI-Ibope survey GOVERNMENT EVALUATION September /216

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3 CNI-Ibope survey GOVERNMENT EVALUATION September / 216

4 216. CNI - National Confederation of Industry. Any part of this publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned. CNI Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC P474g CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA National Confederation of Industry CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation - (September 216). Brasília: CNI, p. ISBN Evaluation of the government. 2. Government of Brazil. 3. Survey research CDU: 354 (49.5) CNI National Confederation of Industry - Brazil Customer Service SAC Setor Bancário Norte Tels.: / Quadra 1 Bloco C sac@cni.org.br Edifício Roberto Simonsen 7-93 Brasília DF Tel.: Fax:

5 CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN Year 6 Number 3 September 216 President Michel Temer s popularity remains stable The results of the second CNI-Ibope survey about the Michel Temer administration are very similar to those of the first survey. Indecision, as reflected in the percentage of Doesn t know/didn t answer, continues high and the population s ratings are practically unchanged from those observed in the June 216 survey, with the exception of the comparison to Dilma Rousseff s administration. President Michel Temer s popularity remains low, albeit still higher than President Dilma Rousseff s was in ch 216. The percentage of the population rating the government as excellent or good oscillates between 13% and 14% within the margin of error while the percentage that rates it as bad or terrible remains at 39%. Evaluation of the Michel Temer administration 13% Jun/16 14% Sep/16 Excellent/Good 39% Jun/16 39% Sep/16 Bad/Terrible The percentage of those who approve and disapprove of president Michel Temer s way of governing have also hovered within the margin of error. The approval rate fell from 31% to 28% and the disapproval rate rose from 53% to 55%. The percentages of Brazilians who trust or do not trust in the president followed a similar trend: down from 27% to 26% and up from 66% to 68%, respectively. The percentage of those who consider the Temer administration better than Dilma Rousseff s oscillates between 23% and 24%. However, the percentage that considers the Temer government to be worse is up from 25% to 31%. Almost half the population in the Northeast region considers the Temer government worse than Dilma s this is the region where President Michel Temer is least popular. Summary Evaluation of the government Page 6 Approval of the government by area Page 7 Perception of news items about the government Page 8 Evaluation of the government: from José Sarney to Michel Temer Page 9 Results table Page 1 5

6 CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN Year 6 Number 3 September 216 GOVERNMENT EVALUATION Evaluation of the Michel Temer administration Approval of the way of governing Confidence in President Michel Temer Excellent/Good Fair Bad/Terrible Doesn t know/ Didn t answer Jun/16 Sep/ Has confidence in Doesn t have Doesn t know/ confidence in Didn t answer Jun/16 Sep/ Approves Disapproves Doesn t know/ Didn t answer Jun/16 Sep/16 6 Highlights by respondent profile Popularity falls among younger people Young people in the age group showed the greatest drop in the Temer government s approval ratings. The percentage of people in this age group that rated the government as bad or terrible rose from 33% to 38%, while the percentage of those who disapprove of president Temer s way of governing increased from 54% to 6%. However, this group contains the lowest percentage of respondents for whom the Temer administration is worse than Dilma s (26%). Almost half of these young people (49%) consider them to be the same. Popularity is higher in the South region President Temer s popularity is higher among residents in the South region. The percentage of those who rate the government as excellent or good has jumped from 12% to 21%. Thirty-six percent of the region s residents believe that the Temer administration is better than that of Dilma Rousseff, compared to 24% who consider it to be worse. The Northeast region shows the highest percentage of people rating the Temer administration as bad or terrible (5%). A similar percentage (48%) considers the Temer government to be worse than Dilma s, while 14% consider it to be better. The Temer administration is better rated by respondents with higher incomes Twenty percent of respondents with a household income of more than five times the minimum wage rate the government as excellent or good, 35% approve of president Temer s way of governing, and 32% have confidence in the president. These are the highest popularity ratings, even though the percentages for bad or terrible (33%), disapproval (49%) and distrust in the president (64%) are higher.

7 Comparison with the Dilma administration Perspectives for the remainder of the Temer administration Mainly among Mainly among The percentage of those who believe residents in the residents in the that the remainder of the Temer South region and Northeast region administration will be excellent or respondents with a and respondents good is 1 percentage points higher household income of with a than that of those who rate the more than five times household 7 government as excellent or good. the minimum wage. income of up to one minimum 6 wage Better The same Worse Doesn t know/ Excellent/Good Fair Bad/Terrible Doesn t know/ Didn t answer Didn t answer Jun/16 Sep/16 Jun/16 Sep/16 Approval of the government by area The ratings by area remained unchanged from June 216, although the percentages varied within the margin of error in some cases. Interest rates and taxes continue to be the areas with the worst ratings. In both cases, the approval and disapproval ratings amounted to 15% and 77%, respectively. The highest rated areas are the environment, with 32% approval and 56% disapproval, and education, with 31% approval and 62% disapproval. It is worth stressing that the environment is the area with the highest percentage of respondents who didn t know or preferred not to evaluate the government s actions: 13%. Perception of the Temer government by area Environment Education Fighting hunger and poverty Fighting inflation Fighting unemployment Approves Public security Disapproves Health care Taxes Doesn t know Didn t answer Interest rates

8 CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN Year 6 Number 3 September 216 Perception of news items about the government Perception of news items about the government News items recalled by the population 1 Welfare reform / Changes to retirement rules / Changes in the welfare factor 7 Demonstrations against the Temer administration 5 President Temer s trip to China, participation in the G2 meeting 4 Government debates on proposed labor law reform / Working day of up to 12 hours 4 Other news items about president Michel Temer s administration 3 Temer Out protests/ New elections/ Movement against the political coup 3 Other news items about social programs / government programs 3 Temer s speech at the UN / Delegates walk out during Temer s speech at the UN 3 High school reform proposal 2 Demonstrations in Brazil (not specified) 2 Demonstrations against the Dilma administration 2 Demonstrations against corruption 2 Jeers for president Michel Temer at the military parade on September 7 and at the Olympics 2 Michel Temer takes office as President of the Republic 2 Lava Jato (Car Wash) operation / Investigation into corruption at Petrobras/ Petrolão scandal 2 The rise in unemployment 2 Other news items about politics 1 Demonstrations calling for the impeachment of President Dilma 1 Strikes in Brazil (not specified) 1 House of Representatives revokes Eduardo Cunha s mandate 1 Public spending adjustments by the Temer administration/ Limits on government spending 1 Government corruption (not specified) 1 Olympic Games/ Olympics in Rio de Janeiro IDEB results showing setbacks in Brazilian education, especially in high-school 1 education 1 Economic crisis (not specified) 1 Tax increases 1 Inflation/ Price increases the USA Michel Temer s trip to the USA / Michel Temer wants to attract investors during trip to 1 the USA Impeachment process against president Temer / Investigation into his involvement in 1 corruption 1 New government political and economic measures / proposals / projects / debates 1 News about health care (health care frauds / chaotic public health system) 1 Notícias sobre Saúde (fraudes na saúde/ caos na saúde pública) 1 None 52 Doesn t know/didn t answer 8 For 43% of the respondents, recent news items have been more unfavorable to the government, while 18% believe they have been more favorable. No significant changes were observed as compared to June, meaning that the percentage of those who believe that news items have been more favorable is unchanged and the percentage that considers them to be more unfavorable oscillates by 3 percentage points (from % to 43%). The measures announced by the Temer administration are uppermost in the population s memory: 17% of the respondents mentioned at least one news item about one of the measures announced or being discussed by the government. Welfare reform features prominently: the issue was recalled by 1% of the population. The debate on amending labor laws also stood out, as mentioned by 4% of respondents. Demonstrations are another commonly mentioned issue, with 14% of respondents recalling at least one demonstration. The demonstrations against the Temer administration were mentioned by 9% of respondents, while 3% recalled anti- Dilma or pro-impeachment demonstrations. The president s trips abroad (G2 and the USA) were mentioned by 6% of respondents and 4% mentioned a news item about the economy. The percentage of respondents that answered none, didn t want to mention anything, or couldn t recall any news items about the government remains high: 53%. This percentage, which tends to be around 39%, rose to 63% in the first Temer administration survey. Perception of news about the government More favorable Neither favorable nor unfavorable More unfavorable 14 Doesn t know/didn t answer

9 Evaluation of the government: from José Sarney to Michel Temer Percentage of respondents who consider the government excellent or good (%) 1 Sarney Collor Itamar Fernando Henrique Lula Dilma Temer Feb 199 Nov Sep 216 Percentage of respondents who consider the government bad or terrible (%) 1 Sarney Collor Itamar Fernando Henrique Lula Dilma Temer Feb 199 Nov Sep 216 9

10 CNI-Ibope survey - Government evaluation ISSN Year 6 Number 3 September 216 RESULTS TABLE Sep/16 Evaluation of the government Excellent / Good 14 Fair 34 Bad / Terrible 39 Doesn t know/didn t answer 12 Perspectives for the remainder of the Temer administration Excellent / Good 24 Fair 3 Bad / Terrible 38 Doesn t know/didn t answer 8 Approval of the president s way of governing Approves 28 Disapproves 55 Doesn t know/didn t answer 17 Confidence in the president Have confidence 26 No confidence 68 Doesn t know/didn t answer 6 Approval of the government by performance area Interest rates Approves 15 Disapproves 77 Doesn t know/didn t answer 8 Fighting unemployment Approves 27 Disapproves 67 Doesn t know/didn t answer 6 Public security Approves 24 Disapproves 7 Doesn t know/didn t answer 6 Fighting inflation Approves 27 Disapproves 64 Doesn t know/didn t answer 8 Fighting hunger and poverty Approves 29 Disapproves 64 Doesn t know/didn t answer 8 Taxes Approves 15 Disapproves 77 Doesn t know/didn t answer 8 Sep/16 The environment Approves 32 Disapproves 56 Doesn t know/didn t answer 13 Health care Approves 23 Disapproves 72 Doesn t know/didn t answer 5 Education Approves 31 Disapproves 62 Doesn t know/didn t answer 7 Perception of news items about the government More favorable 18 Neither favorable nor unfavorable 26 More unfavorable 43 Doesn t know/didn t answer 14 Comparison with Dilma Rousseff Better 24 The same 38 Worse 31 Doesn t know/didn t answer 7 The sum of the percentages may not be equal to 1 due to rounding errors. i Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,2 interviews in 143 municipalities. Survey period: September 2 25, 216. The estimated margin of error is 2 percentage points above or below the results found in the sample. The confidence level is 95%. Learn more The complete data from this survey, earlier versions and the methodology can be found at: 1

11 CNI POLICY AND STRATEGY DIRECTORATE DIRPE José Augusto Coelho Fernandes Director for Policy and Strategy Research and Competitiveness Unit GPC Renato da Fonseca Executive Manager for Research and Competitiveness Edson Velloso Renato da Fonseca Technical Team Carla Regina P. Gadêlha Editorial production CORPORATE SERVICES DIRECTORATE DSC Fernando Augusto Trivellato Director for Corporate Services Administration, Documentation and Information Department ADINF Maurício Vasconcelos de Carvalho Executive Manager for Administration, Documentation and Information Managing Board for Documentation and Information GEDIN Alberto Nemoto Yamaguti Normalization IBOPE Inteligência Elaboration of the survey

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