ASIA MONTHLY. Sep 2001

Transcription

1 ASIA MONTHLY Sep 2001 Topics The Problems of Indonesia and the New Megawati Government 1 Malaysia 3 Indonesia 4 Philippines 5 Vietnam 6 India7 China 8

2 Topics The Problems of Indonesia and the New Megawati Government President Wahid was deposed by an overwhelming majority in the People s Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country s highest decision-making body, on July 23, and the new Megawati presidency was born. The new cabinet was inaugurated on August 9, but the Megawati administration was launched facing many troubling political and economic issues. Background of the Birth of the New Presidency The Indonesian political environment that surrounds the new Megawati presidency can be characterized by the following three points. The first is the great number of political parties. Under the Suharto government, the number of political parties was limited to three. In actuality it was one-party rule by the governing Golkar party, but political parties sprouted up after the liberalization of political activity in The major parties are generally divided into 1. the old-guard Golkar party, 2. nationalist political parties waving the banner of national unification and represented by the Democratic Party of Struggle, and 3. Islamic parties. Power conflicts among the parties lead to political unrest. The second characteristic is that, amid rapid democratization, consensus is the current order of the day, whereby the People s Consultative Assembly oversees presidential policies. In particular, the removal of President Wahid from office made clear the superiority of the People s Consultative Assembly. The third characteristic is that the military, as always, holds the deciding vote that decides the fate of the government. Also, some of the factors that led parliament and the People s Consultative Assembly to remove President Wahid from power were: 1. President Wahid reshuffled influential cabinet posts held by members of other parties, 2. he showed a more flexible stance toward independence movements in Aceh and Irian Jaya, and 3. he meddled in military personnel affairs. In the past, when the governing Golkar party held an overwhelming majority in the legislature, President Suharto maintained his dictatorship by achieving a power balance between the parliament and the military. President Wahid, who did not hold this kind of dictatorial political power, was limited in his ability to fight for control with the parliament, the People s Consultative Assembly, and the military. Ultimately, the military turned against him, making his removal from office unavoidable. Interest Group Faction69 Police and Military Faction 38 Nation Democratic Party 5 Nationhood Unity Faction 12 Believers Sovereign Party 8 Moon Star Party 14 Reform Faction 48 Awakening Nation Party 56 (Wahid's Party) United Development Party 67 Indonesian Democratic Party- Struggle (Megawati's Party) 186 Note: Figure in ( ) indicates the number of seats. Isramic parties, shaded portion, hold 205 seats. Source: MPR Homepage Golkar (Ruling party in the Suharto Era) 179 Biggest Political Issues: Banding Political Parties Together and National Unification President Megawati raised the issues of pulling political parties together and national unification as having the highest priority in her inaugural address. These are the true political challenges of the Megawati presidency. The Megawati presidency secured broad support because 1. the Democratic Party of Struggle that she herself leads is the leading party in the People s Consultative Council and parliament, 2. Hamzah Haz, chairman of the largest Islamic party, the Development Unity Party, was brought into the office of Vice President, and 3. she is on good terms with the military. However, in the 1

3 new political balance of the post-suharto era, it appears that the competition for leadership among major political parties will continue into the future, and it cannot be said yet that the Megawati Administration has a solid political base. Although posts were distributed among the major political parties and the military when the cabinet was formed, the fact that economic posts are largely held by nonpolitical technocrats may be a source of destabilization. There are also problems within the power base, such as the fact that the Democratic Party of Struggle itself is made up of a hodgepodge of politicians from different groups, and there are doubts about the rights and interests of Megawati s husband, assemblyman Taufik Kiemas. The president is also under pressure to make hard decisions on separatist movements in Aceh, Irian Jaya and other regions. The Wahid administration reached a ceasefire agreement with the armed, Free Aceh Movement (GAM), organization, and talks ensued. However, a power vacuum was created when proceedings for Wahid s impeachment began in earnest, so the army intensified its clamp-down on independence movements in Aceh. According to the local media, over 1,000 people were killed at the start of President Megawati had previously taken a stance in opposition to local separatism and independence. However, any intensification of strong-arm tactics in the region, while the international community focuses on human rights issues, will inevitably cause Indonesia to be isolated. The test of President Megawati s ability will be the extent to which she can forge a peaceful settlement. Economic Issues: Rebuilding Government Finances and Recovery in Confidence Among Foreign Investors The Megawati Government inherited the accumulated, unresolved problems of rebuilding the economy from the previous administration. Nearly four years have passed since the currency crisis, yet the fruits of structural reforms of the Indonesian economy that should be visible by now have not appeared. The real GDP in January-March 2001 had even fallen as much as 9% below pre-crisis levels. Domestically, the Megawati government should deal with rebuilding the nation s finances and the banking sector. Internationally, it should resume reviewing foreign aid and attract foreign investment. It will be difficult to achieve the goal of holding government deficit in fiscal 2001 (January-December) to 3.7% of the GDP. For example, the government was expecting to take in 6.5 trillion rupiah over the year by privatizing 16 state owned companies, but revenue from this did not exceed 250 billion rupiah in January-July. The recovery of 286 trillion rupiah in bad loans (equivalent to 72% of the GDP), which was transferred from the banks to the Bank Restructuring Agency, is going slowly. As for external relations, after the resumption of the IMF aid that had been cut off, there must be an agreement on the rescheduling of external public sector debt by the creditor nations at the Paris Club meeting, and new foreign aid secured at the meeting of assisting nations. Although 4.96 billion dollars of direct foreign investment, which is 113.2% more than the previous year, was approved in January-June 2001, foreign investors are still watchful of political developments. Also, with rising rents and energy fees, labor disputes and many other such developments, Indonesia s appeal to investing countries is weak, and a recovery in investor confidence remains an important issue. Meanwhile, as regards the current economic situation, at a time when exports are sluggish due to an economic slowdown in the developed countries, the effects of increased public utility charges in order to rebuild government finances, and a weak rupiah, are putting upward pressure on prices. The rate that the prices of consumer goods will increase in 2001 looks set to exceed 10%. There is also a strong possibility that escalating inflation will lead to social instability, raising doubts as to the capabilities of macro policy operations. The economic cabinet team, lead by the Coordinating Minister for the Economic Affairs, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, needs to enact the economic structural reforms agreed to with the IMF and to display their ability, both at home and abroad to tackle the problems described above, thus restoring the confidence of aid giving bodies and investors. In addition, President Megawati must create a political environment in which the economic ministry can make adequate use of its talents. 2

4 Future Outlook President Megawati gained national support because she symbolized the democratization movement, or anti-suharto movement, and because she inherited the charisma of her father, first-president Sukarno. In the future, her ability to govern and the centripetal force she needs to realize her political views will be tested in actual policy operations. The market reacted favorably to the birth of the new administration and the appointment of mainly pragmatic businessmen to economic posts in the cabinet, and the exchange rate recovered from the 1 dollar=11,000 rupiah level to the 1 dollar=8,000 rupiah level. However, given the unstable political environment, the people, major political parties, international community and foreign investors all seem likely to remain watchful of the actions of the Megawati government for the next several months. It is to be hoped that President Megawati will be able to establish her own leadership. She will need to lead the government to consensus, through repeated discussions with the interested parties. If she cannot do this, it will be difficult for her to stay in power until her term is up, in Kazuo Mishima mishima.kazuo@jri.co.jp 3

5 Malaysia Sharp Decline in Exports and Manufacturing Exports and Manufacturing Continue to Drop Exports were down compared to last year for four consecutive months, starting in March. The margin of decline grew month after month, and in June was down 13.5% from last year. The main reason is that IT-related demand is falling due to the economic slowdown in the developed countries. Electrical and electronics products in particular (which are 57.1% of exports) fell drastically by 15.3%. Meanwhile, June imports also dropped off sharply by 10.4%. Since there was also a large drop of 10.2% in intermediate commodities and capital goods (together 88.5% of imports), exports are expected to fall further towards the end of the year. Manufacturing Production & Exports/Imports (YoY) (%) Manufacturing production also fell continuously from March below last year. In June it was down 13.2%, which is the first double-digit decline since January Employment Situation and Slump in Private Consumption Worsen The employment situation is worsening due to the sharp downturn in manufacturing (%) production. The number of employees in the manufacturing sector fell consistently 4.0 from January to May. Labor adjustment has Unemployment intensified, particularly in IT related export 3.0 businesses. The U.S. companies Seagate and Solectron announced layoffs after the 2.0 beginning of 2001 (JETRO Daily, August 9) and there are other signs that the previously CPI (YoY) 1.0 low rate of unemployment is on the rise, reaching 4.0% in January-March, its highest (Source) Department of Statistics (Y/M) point since the same period in Furthermore, the decline in employment is intensifying downward pressure on consumption. The consumer sentiment index put out by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) was 96.2 in April-June, which is a 9.5 point drop from January-March, and down 24.8 points from the same period last year, showing that consumer buying inclination is falling. Disappointing Growth Rate Falls Further This situation has prompted the government to further increase public spending. In March, the government announced a new economic stimulation policy based on an additional budget of 3 billion ringgit (US$789 million). Also, in June, the government issued 1 billion dollars in foreign bonds that should cover the government deficit. Nothing much can be done about sluggish exports, and government measures, such as bringing public works schedules forward, are also limited at a time when there is little hope for an early recovery in the economies of the developed countries. A slow recovery in foreign and domestic demand will also further retard Malaysian economic growth, which is expected to be roughly 2% through (Tatsuro Bando bando.tatsuro@jri.co.jp) Manufacturing Production Exports 10 Imports (Source) Department of Statistics (Y/M) Unemployment and CPI 4

6 Indonesia Downturn in Exports Grows More Serious January-June Exports Down From the Previous Year As with the other ASEAN countries, the dip in Indonesian exports is also growing (%) more serious. Exports have performed at the 4.8 billion dollar level each month since April. In June, they were down 10.2% compared to last year, resulting in January-June exports of 29.3 billion dollars, which is down 0.2% compared to last year. More specifically, oil and gas products were up 6.7%, and non-oil and gas products were down 2.2%. Meanwhile, January-June imports were at billion dollars, up 29.1% compared Source: BPS to the previous year, but the rate of growth has slowed since the second half of < > Exports Imports (Year/Month) Drop in Export Prices and Cooling Markets in Developed Countries Slow Exports The major reasons for the sluggish exports include 1. a drop in the prices of international commodities such as crude oil and palm oil, 2. sluggish economies in the U.S. and other developed countries, and 3. buyer unease due to the political unrest. The price of crude oil, which rose to 37 dollars a barrel at one time, has fallen to the current 27 dollar level. In the case of Indonesia, electronics exports account for less than 10% of all exports, so the effect of the worldwide IT business slump is relatively small. However, the effects of the economic slump in the developed countries are manifest in sluggish exports of such items as plywood/wood products, and textiles. Foreign buyers are growing more worried about late deliveries caused by worsening political unrest and the breakdown of public order surrounding the dismissal of President Wahid, creating a downward trend in orders received. According to commissioner Gusmardi Bustami of the National Export Development Agency, it has been the norm for buyers to place orders six months in advance, but recently, since the political unrest, the majority of orders are placed only one or two months in advance. Initial government forecasts had 2001 exports growing 10% over last year, but this was revised downward to 7.5% to account for the situation described above. Upturn in Exports Requires Drastic Steps A real recovery in exports must wait for a favorable turn in the economies of the developed countries, but there is growing expectation that the inauguration of the Megawati administration will work favorably on exports. Political stability is expected to lead to a recovery in orders from foreign buyers. A stable rate for the rupiah is beneficial for the export industry, which relies on imports for much of its raw materials (e.g., 70% for textile products and 80% for electronics), in that business planning would be made easier. Finally, political stability is not the only requirement for obtaining sustainable growth in exports; a significant improvement in competitiveness is also necessary. Although there is room for expansion in the world market for light manufacturing and processed raw material output, Indonesia cannot continue to be internationally competitive relying solely on low labor costs, but must catch up with updated facilities and state-of-the-art production technology. For example, it is pointed out that the textile industry needs a production system that shortens delivery time and where quick response is possible. There is much room for improvement with regard to quality and new product development. If the response to this is slow, major Indonesian export items will drop in ranking in the international marketplace. Kazuo Mishima mishima.kazuo@jri.co.jp 5

7 Philippines Arroyo Administration Facing Many Issues Arroyo Administration Carrying Out Policy Operations in Earnest It has been approximately half a year since the Arroyo administration was born through a dramatic change in political administrations. In the mid-term elections in May, the governing party secured a majority of 14 seats in the Senate, finally making it possible to carry out policy operations in earnest. However, the general environment has not necessarily been favorable for the new government, with such developments as the growth rate of the real GDP falling to 2.5% in January-March 2001 due to a slowing world economy, frequent kidnapping incidents by the Islamic extremist organization, Abu Sayyaf, and a strong reaction against the administration in the poorest segment of the population. These circumstances led to the current government efforts to lay out a Medium-Term Development Plan (2001 to 2004) under the slogan of eradicating poverty and unemployment. The main points of the plan that were hammered out are strengthening macro-economic stability primarily by resolving the government deficit, individual anti-poverty measures, and the realization of good governance. However, some economists criticize the plan, saying that perhaps there is too much emphasis on anti-poverty measures and the governance issue. Hoping for a Recovery in Foreign Investor Confidence Meanwhile, the confidence of overseas investors in the Philippines has fallen due to such factors as the political turmoil since While there is a broad array of factors that have an effect on investor confidence, political and social factors cannot be ignored in the case of the Philippines at present. It is believed that the Arroyo administration s decision to emphasize anti-poverty measures and governance issues is correct. Another vital matter involves stepping up attempts to deal with Abu Sayyaf and other issues related to Mindanao. The International Institute of Management Development (IMD) World Competitiveness Survey is an indication of the level of confidence of foreign investors. The survey ranks the appeal as investment targets of 49 countries world wide on four factors: economic performance, government efficiency, management efficiency, and infrastructure. The ranking of the Philippines has fallen from 31 in 1999, to 37 in 2000, and to 40 in The Philippines score in terms of corruption and tax evasion in particular is near the bottom. Also, the Philippines has dropped in rank from 8 in 1999 to 10 in 2000 in the annual survey of direct investment from Japan, which is conducted by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and ranks countries that show promise as investment targets. Policy Operations Requiring a Multi-Faceted Approach As mentioned above, efforts toward anti-poverty measures and good governance are particularly vital issues. However, there are a host of other problems. Some issues that require prompt action are improving the government deficit, financial system measures primarily for resolving the problem of bad loans, encouraging the introduction of direct investment, and encouraging competition with the goal of improving productivity in the service industry. Meanwhile, recovering foreign investor confidence and anticyclical measures are important for the short term, and the establishment of an economic and industrial structure where a higher economic rate of growth is possible is required for the medium term. The Arroyo Administration needs to carry out the required economic policy operations in the short and medium term amidst a politically and socially troubled environment. The real ability of the president, who is also an economist, is about to be put to the test. (Satoshi Shimizu simizu.satoshi@jri.co.jp) Source: Business World Original:World Competitiveness Yearbook 2001 by IMD 6

8 Vietnam Export Quotas Requiring Modification Growing Fears Over Slowing Exports There is growing worry in the government over sluggish exports. In early August, the Ministry of Trade and Industry hurriedly gathered businesses in labor-intensive industrial fields, such as textiles, in major markets in Hanoi, Danang and Ho Chi Min, to discuss future actions. At the meeting they discussed how to maintain competitiveness in each industry, but the companies were of the opinion that there are problems with the system of trade and its operation, and voiced a number of criticisms against the government. Sluggish Growth in Textile Exports January-July exports were billion dollars, which is 12% higher than the previous year. The growth rate itself is by no means low, but it was difficult to achieve the target of 16% set by the government at the beginning of the year. The reason for this kind of sluggish growth in exports is that textile products, which are the second largest export item after crude oil, suffered slow growth in exports to markets for which quotas are set, such as the EU. Vietnamese textile products are exported primarily to Japan, where there are no quotas, and to the EU and Canada, where quotas are set. In contrast to exports of textile products to markets without quotas being up 15% in January-July, they hovered at a growth of 6% to markets with quotas. Moreover, because textile products are seasonal commodities, exports tend to peak annually in the summer, and drop off sharply in the second half of the year. Stratification of Trade System Sluggish growth in exports to markets with quotas stems from government trade policy, and in particular, from problems underlying the quota system for exporting textile products. The Ministry of Trade and Industry does not control quotas on textile products, but they do allocate 70% to state-run companies and auction the remaining 30% to other companies, including private businesses. State-run companies are given priority with the allotted quotas, and they also have the advantage in the auctioned portion because they have greater capital strength. Thus, the system clearly favors state-run companies, and acts to create two strata: state-run and private-sector. In point of fact, while the state run companies gather up quotas, they re-sell these to private companies at high commissions. It is said that there are many state-run companies that only survive because of revenue gained in this way. For example, the going processing fee for polo-shirts is on the order of 60 cents a shirt, but the state run companies, which are given the export quota of these shirts, attach a 30 cent commission, and re-sell the quota to the private sector. Although the private sector company makes almost no profit because the actual processing fee is constricted to 30 cents, they have no choice but to put priority on continual operations over profits in order to survive. The government policy of favorable treatment toward state-run companies due to sluggish exports to markets with quotas is squeezing the management of private industries. As a result, the greatest comparative advantage of Vietnam, cheap labor, is canceled out. The textile industry supports both employment and acquisition of foreign currency, and is by nature the sector that can best make use of the comparative advantage of cheap labor. For these reasons alone, it is necessary to revise the quota allotment system from the standpoint of ability and performance, and create conditions whereby state-run and private sector can compete on a level playing field. Yuji Miura hiraiwa.yuji@jri.co.jp 7

9 India Indo-Pakistani Summit Breaks Down Summit Breaks Down Without a Joint Declaration Prime Minister Vajpayee of India and President Musharraf of Pakistan held a summit over three days starting July 14. The summit was broken off without the issuance of the joint statement that was initially planned. This was the first meeting between Indian and Pakistani leaders in approximately two years and five months. The proceedings drew attention since it was the first summit since the outbreak of violent clashes between Islamic extremist factions, who crossed the border from Pakistan, and the Indian army in the Kashmir region in 1999, and the first summit since the military government in Pakistan came to power. Relations between India and Pakistan 1947 The two countries won independence from the U.K., the first India-Pakistan war occurred 1965 The second India-Pakistan war occurred 1971 The third India-Pakistan war occurred 1989 Insurgency of Muslim separatists began 1996 India gave MFN status to Pakistan 1998 India carried out a nuclear bomb test after a 24-year interval Pakistan carried out a nuclear bomb test for the first time 1999 Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and Pakistani Prime Minister Schariff met for mutual understanding The Kargil conflict occurred in the Kashmir The military took power in Pakistan (Source)The Japan Research Institute However, no agreement at all was reached on Kashmir, and there was no visible progress, which was originally anticipated, with such issues as nuclear stewardship confidence building measures in order to prevent an accidental nuclear war, and promoting economic exchange. Different Perceptions of Deep-Rooted Problems and Domestic Affairs The greatest factor in the breakdown of the talks was that the conceptual rift between the two countries concerning Kashmir, which is the most important question at issue, is as wide as ever. When both India and Pakistan became independent of the U.K. in 1947, there was hostility between the two countries over the jurisdiction of Kashmir. The region was the cause of the first India-Pakistan war, following which, zones of occupation were provisionally decided in 1949 through the arbitration of the UN. However, there has been unceasing conflict ever since because of the large number of Muslims in the Indian-occupied zone. Against this backdrop, India considers Kashmir an internal matter, and views activities by paramilitary groups encouraging separatist and independence movements as cross-border terrorism by Pakistan. In contrast, Pakistan feels that the jurisdiction of Kashmir should be decided tri-laterally between India, Pakistan, and representatives of Kashmir, and accords the activities of paramilitary groups the status of movements for independence from Indian tyranny. Additionally, the internal affairs of both countries cannot be ignored. As for India, the National Democratic Alliance, which is the political base of the Vajpayee Administration, is a coalition government comprised of nearly 20 political parties. Thus, it would be untenable to deal with Kashmir while ignoring the strong nationalistic public sentiment. Meanwhile, Pakistan has a military government with an agenda that has placed the highest priority on Kashmir from the outset. Improvements in Bi-lateral Relationships Difficult Since the beginning, there has been the question of the political viability of either government in addition to the wide conceptual rift on the question of Kashmir; the two leaders will lose their power bases if they compromise too easily. Therefore, it was more or less expected that there would be no major visible progress. Yet, most of the meeting was spent on this question, and the issues of nuclear stewardship and economic exchange never even came up. It is the fact that there was no visible progress at all which has raised concern. Although a future meeting was agreed to, the failure of this summit left no sign of tangible improvements in relations. Confidence building between the two countries also struck out, raising concern about further aggravation of the hostilities over Kashmir. Hiroshi Imai imai.hiroshi@jri.co.jp 8

10 China 7.8% Real GDP Growth Rate in April-June, Driven by Domestic Demand Continued High Growth Rate Led by Domestic Demand The real GDP growth rate in April-June 2001 was up 7.8% compared to the previous year, continuing the high rate of growth despite a small drop from the 8.1% of January-March. This is due to the fact that growing domestic demand made up for the drop in foreign demand. In addition to an increase in the purchase of mobile phones and in educational outlays, mostly in urban areas, the government s measures to prop up individual consumption with raises for governmental employees and the like resulted in total retail sales of public consumer commodities in the first half of 2001 of 1 trillion billion yuan, which is 10.3% more than last year. Also, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the first half of 2001 was 1 trillion billion yuan, which is a 15.1% increase over the previous year. More specifically, in contrast to the state sector growing by a wide margin of 17.9%, the growth rate for firms under private management was sluggish (6.5%). By sector, real estate investment was up 28.2% compared to the previous year, investment in the communications industry was up 87.7%, and finally, investment in equipment replacement and technological improvements was also up by a wide margin. As for foreign demand, the growth rate for exports dropped off sharply under the influence of such developments as the economic slowdown in the U.S. June exports were down 0.6%, which is the first negative growth since June In January-June 2001, total exports were up 8.8% at billion US dollars, imports were up 14% at billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was down 34% at 8.1 billion US dollars. The stable economic growth is causing domestic investment in plant and equipment by foreign companies to rise, so imports of mechanical equipment, capital resources, raw materials and the like are expected to continue to increase. As a result, the trade surplus is expected to continue shrinking for the foreseeable future. Direct Investment from Overseas Rises Sharply Due to WTO Membership Since the second half of 2000, anticipation has risen over the opening of markets in conjunction with China s WTO membership, so direct investment from foreign countries is on the rise. The number of new foreign-backed companies established in January-June of 2001 was up 18.5% compared to last year, at 11,973 companies. Foreign direct investment on a contract basis was 33.4 billion US dollars, which is a 38.2% increase, and on a settlement basis was 20.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.5%. Investment in electronics and communications equipment, general machinery, etc., increased drastically, and the recovery in investment from Japan and Taiwan was striking. Looking at direct investment (cumulative total) by country and region, in January-March from 1979 to 2001, Hong Kong invested billion US dollars on a contract basis, and billion US dollars on a settlement basis, making it the largest investing region. Japanese investment is fourth after Taiwan on a contract basis (40.4 billion US dollars), and third on a settlement basis (28.6 billion US dollars). In recent years, the share of the Chinese market held by Japanese companies has continued to drop because western companies one after the other have been investing large amounts in China, and local Chinese companies are also growing quickly. However, since Toyota extended business into Tianjin last year, and such large companies as Toshiba and NEC are seen expanding local production, there is good reason to believe that the presence of Japanese companies in the Chinese market will rise again.(fang Meng miyamori.yoshika@jri.co.jp) (%) Growth Rate of Export in China (Q to Q) 2000/1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2001/1Q 2Q Total Japan United States Hong Kong Korea Germany (source) China's Customs Statistics (Monthly Exports & Imports) 9