The SHaSA (Strategic Harmonisation of Statistics in Africa) GPS (Governance, Peace and Security) initiative: A focus on Corruption

Transcription

1 The SHaSA (Strategic Harmonisation of Statistics in Africa) GPS (Governance, Peace and Security) initiative: A focus on Corruption Mireille RAZAFINDRAKOTO François ROUBAUD DIAL-IRD Meeting Task Force on Corruption Measurement (EGM) UNODC - UNDP Vienna October,

2 I.- Governance survey modules: historical background II.- GPS-SHaSA Initiative: scope, lessons & illustrations Conclusion 2

3 2 veins/approaches in measuring corruption through surveys I.- (economic) Crime Surveys : ICVS Origin: Developed Countries II.- Governance Surveys : IGMS Origin: Developing Countries 3

4 A focus on governance (after structural adjustment) I.- Research: institutions matters! II.- Policies: MDGs, PRSPs A massive need for measurement 4

5 How far can we trust the experts opinion on corruption? (Razafindrakoto & Roubaud (2010), World Development) Population who believes that making bribe is acceptable HH Survey Mirror Survey 0 Cotonou Ouaga Abidjan Tana Bamako Niamey Dakar Lomé Average General population * (% from Household (HH) survey) Expert panel (what they think could be the % of population who believes that making a bribe is acceptable) 5

6 6

7 The global lessons 1: Content Advantages of household sample surveys Transparency of measurement procedures Representativeness, precision, robustness Quantification Comparability of indicators over time. In-depth policy-oriented analyses More appropriate than international indicators and aggregates (complementary approach). Both objective (behaviour, actual experiences) and subjective information (perception, satisfaction) Monitoring and relating the two fundamental dimensions of these phenomena. Socio-economic disaggregation These two dimensions can be combined with traditional variables related to the socio-economic characteristics of individuals and households (gender, income/poverty, occupation, ethnic group, etc.). Possibility to disaggregate information between different population categories (gender, poverty, ethnic groups, discriminated people, etc. Spatial disaggregation (infra-national representativeness; Benin, Madagascar, Peru, Ecuador) To produce regional indicators (relevance for piloting decentralization process, assisting local democracy International comparability Published in Academic Journals (World development, International Statistical Review, OECD Journal on Development, African Statistical Journal, etc.) 7

8 Supply side The global lessons 2: Process Interactions Demand side Conducted by National Statistical Institute Integration in the National Statistical System Investment in capacity building Ownership Reliability Relevance Systematic Presentation / Publication of the result wider public Validation Democratic debate demand Bottom-up approach Light, flexible tool Reconductible time-series Sustainability Marginal cost HH survey «Voicing» empowerment, accountability The Best Way to Relay the Voice of the Citizens 8

9 180 Example 1: Madagascar (1-2-3 Survey) Incidence of bureaucratic corruption, political and economic conditions Antananarivo, Political crisis Political crisis Active anticorruption policy Corruption Civil servants real wage Updated from Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2003), Wage and corruption: the case of Madagascar, Global Corruption Report 2003, Transparency International, pp

10 Example 2: West Africa (1-2-3 Survey) Incidence and determinants of petty corruption in French-speaking Africa Niger Mada Benin Togo Mali Senegal Côte d Ivoire gascar Rate (total population) * 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 9.1% 10.3% 10.9% 16.5% No contact with the administration 33.0% 23.5% 43.1% 41.1% 37.3% 19.0% 28.7% Rate (those who have been in contact 12.1% 11.0% 15.3% 15.5% 16.4% 13.4% 23.1% with the administration) 1 st step: contact with administration Gender (woman) Education Age Inactivity Speak French ns ns ++ ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ++ 2 nd step : Risk factors /corruption Gender n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (woman) Age -- n.s. -- n.s. -- n.s. n.s. Ethnic group/nationality n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (Diola) -- (Ivorian) Religion n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (Catholic) n.s. n.s. -- (Catholic) Education n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. Income + n.s. ++ n.s Civil servant - n.s. -- n.s Sample 6,330 3,020 6,330 1,900 4,530 6,590 4,760 Concordant pairs 70% 59% 71% 67% 65% 65% 63% Sources: surveys, PARSTAT, WAEMU for West Africa and INSTAT/MADIO 2003 for Madagascar. Notes: Logit models with correction of the selection bias associated with contact with the administration. ++ (resp. --): significant coefficient (positive resp. negative) at the 5% level. + (resp. -): idem at the 10% level. n.s.: not significant at the 5% level. Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2004), Daily corruption in French speaking Africa, Global Corruption Report 2004, Transparency International, pp

11 Example 3: Peru (ENAHO Survey) Main problems of the country, (Percentage of the population 18 years of age and over) Falta de Empleo Pobreza Corrupción Falta de Seguridad Ciudadana - Delincuencia Mala calidad de la educación estatal Note: Question with multiple answer. 1 / From 2002 to 2006, was asked by the "proliferation of crime". From 2012 he asks only for the 'crime Source: National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI) - National Household Survey. Module: Governance, democracy and transparency.

12 Example 3: Peru (ENAHO Survey) Expense Quintiles Incidence (total number of individuals) Corruption and poverty at population level Incidence (individuals in contact with the government) Average Cost Pressure from (soles per capita/year) corruption (% of food expenses) Reason for not filing a complaint : fear of reprisals, do not know how to proceed I 2.6% 3.1% % 49.3% II 4.4% 5.3% % 41.1% III 5.0% 5.8% % 22.5% IV 6.2% 7.1% % 30.9% V 7.9% 8.9% % 29.5% Poverty condition Non-poor 6.8% 7.9% % 29.6% Poor 3.9%*** 4.6%*** 15*** 0.7% 36.5%*** Total 5.2% 6.1% % 32.3% Source: Estimate by authors based on ENAHO 2002, IV quarter, INEI. 18,598 households. Herrera J., Roubaud F. (2004), Corruption and Poverty in Peru, Global Corruption Report 2004, Transparency International, pp

13 Corruption in Vietnam : the blank page mystery Cling J.-P., Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền, Nguyễn Hữu Chí, Phan T. Ngọc Trâm, Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2010), The Informal Sector in Vietnam: A focus on Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi: The Gioi Editions, 247p.. 13

14 Source: Youth Integrity Survey 2010, Vietnam. 14

15 Source: Youth Integrity Survey 2010, Vietnam. Dang Giang, Nguyen Thi Kieu Vien, Nguyen Thuy Hang, Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F., Salomon M. (2011), Youth Integrity in Vietnam, Transparency International, Hanoi, June. 15

16 Statistics on governance, peace & security (GPS) are a governance tool and indication of data sovereignty Relevant to Africa s measuring targets of new Goal 16 on justice, peace and accountable institutions in SDGs In My World survey (2m Africans in 7m respondents): o honest and responsible government rated 4 th o protection against crime and violence rated 7th Foundational contribution to establish of Praia City Group on governance in UN Statistical Commission GPS an important aspect of Agenda 2063 in Africa Helpful contribution to reworking of APRM measures

17 The GPS-SHaSA Initiative (NSOs ownership; African Union leadership; UNDP Support; DIAL-IRD scientific assistance) 17

18 The SHaSA initiative Strategy for the Harmonization of Statistics in Africa STG1 Harmonization and institutionalization of Governance, Peace and Security (GPS) statistics African Union Commission (AUC), Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) African Statistical Coordination Committee (ASCC) What is measured? The SHaSA instruments on GPS are aligned with the African Union Charter on Democracy, Elections & Governance (signed by 45 countries)

19 Policy frameworks - AU Charter on Democracy, Elections & Governance - AU Protocol on the Establishment of the Peace & Security Council - African Charter on Statistics, SHaSA Priority Themes and Work Program Add-on Governance module on regular HH surveys Administrative instrument on Governance Indicators - Factual and attitudinal - Core set + country-specific 4 instruments Add-on Peace & Security module on regular HH surveys Administrative instrument on Peace & Security Users - Continental (APRM, Early Warning System, Peace & Security Council, African Governance Platform) - Regional (RECs) - National (plans, post MDG, governance strategies, conflict prevention...)

20 Pilot countries Self-start countries Committed to implement Cape Verde ( ) Benin (2015) Chad Côte d Ivoire* (2015) Burundi * (2013/14) Congo-Brazzaville Cameroon (2015) Cote d lvoire* (2015) Dem. Rep. of Congo Kenya* ( ) Madagascar (2015) Gabon Malawi* (2015) Mali* ( ) Guinea-Conakry Tunisia* (2014) Niger * Official report issued Uganda* (2013) Senegal Admin-based statistics Seychelles Institutionalization (two iterations or +) Togo

21 21

22 Support Survey Cameroon Pilot Countries Cap Verde Kenya Malawi Tunisia Benin Burundi Other Countries (self-starters) Côte d Ivoire Mali Uganda Name of the Survey ECAM 4 IMC GATS WMS GPD EMICoV ECVMB ENV EMOP UNGBS Type of Survey HLS/123 HLS/123 Specific HLS/123 GoV HLS/123 HLS /123 HLS/123 HLS/123 GoV Number of PSUs 1,024 n.a. Test Nb. of HH (theoretical) 12,848 9,918 Pilot 12,700 4,470 22,080 7,128 12,816 5,466 3,750 Nb. of HH (final) 10,303 8,804-14,198 n.a. 21,402 7,006 n.a. n.a. n.a. GPS-SHaSA Module Year of Survey Unit of analysis Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Nb. of HH (from Support Surv) 50% 50% - All All All All 25% % Nb. of individuals/household 1 n.a. 1 1 n.a. All All 1 <3 1 Nb. of individuals (in database) 5,102 3, ,198 14,000 39,991 13,116 3,082 13,835 1,036 Questionnaire Integral Integral Integral Partial Partial+ Integral+ Integral Integral Integral Partial+ Nb. of questions asked n.d. n.a

23 % Countries Burundi Côte d Ivoire Mali 2014 Mali 2015 Ouganda Governance Satisfaction with democracy 1,1 0,0 2,2 0,0 0,0 Victim of corruption 0,8 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 Peace and Security Feeling of safety 0,5 0,0 2,3 0,0 0,0 Threaten with firearm 0,6 0,0 2,8 0,0 0,0 Labour market Activity Rate 0,0 0,0 1,7 2,0 n.d. Salarisation Rate 0,0 0,0 n.d. n.d. n.d. Unemployment Rate 0,0 0,0 1,7 2,0 n.d. 23

24 Burundi Côte d'ivoire Mali 2014 Mali 2015 Uganda Governance Satisfaction with democratcy Contact with administration Victime of corruption Confidence in administration Peace & Security Perception of armed conflict threat Victime of physical assault Existance of structures to solve conflict Feeling of Insecurity Activity Rate Salarisation Rate Unemployment Rate Labour Market 77,0% 56,4% 58,7% 57,5% 72,1% [75,5 ; 78,5] [53,5 ; 59,2] [56,0 ; 61,4] [55,0 ; 60,0] [68,5 ; 75,5] 80,4% 40,6% 11,5% 15,5% 29,0% [78,4 ; 82,3] [37,9 ; 43,3] [10,2 ; 12,8] [14,1 ; 17,1] [25,9 ; 32,1] 4,4% 16,4% 7,5% 4,0% 18,0% [3,7 ; 5,2] [14,3 ; 18,8] [8,7 ; 12,8] [3,4 ; 4,6] [15,3 ; 21,1] 86,6% 72,3% 67,4% 62,2% 61,9% [85,3 ; 87,8] [69,7 ; 74,8] [64,7 ; 70,1] [59,9 ; 64,4] [58,2 ; 65,5] 55,2% 47,2% 53,7% 59,4% 39,0% [53,2 ; 57,2] [43,7 ; 50,7] [49,8 ; 57,5] [55,9 ; 62,8] [34,7 ; 43,6] 4,3% 7,1% 1,7% 0,6% n.d. [3,8 ; 5,0] [5,7 ; 8,8] [1,2 ; 2,2] [0,5 ; 0,8] - 84,9% 65,5% 74,9% 67,1% 5,7% [83,4 ; 86,3] [62,0 ; 68,7] [71, 8 ; 77,8] [64,3 ; 69,8] [4,3 ; 7,5] 7,8% 29,1% 17,5% 31,6% 53,2% [6,8 ; 8,9] [26,4 ; 31,9] [15,5 ; 19,8] [29,3 ; 34,1] [48,8 ; 57,6] 88,0% 56,3% 69,8% n.a. n.a. [87,2 ; 88,8] [53,5 ; 59,0] [68,0 ; 71,5] - - 7,5% 14,9% n.a. n.a. n.a. [6,7 ; 8,4] [12,8 ; 17,3] ,4% 3,5% 5,2% n.a. n.a. [2,1 ; 2,8] [2,6 ; 4,6] [4,4 ; 6,1]

25 Respecct of liberties General Appreciation (in %) Tout à fait Plutôt Pas vraiment Pas du tout Tout à fait Plutôt Pas vraiment Pas du tout Tout à fait Plutôt Pas vraiment Pas du tout se sent libre - liberté d'expression se sent libre - liberté d'association se sent libre - choix de vote/ élection Personal Experience 25

26 % of those who think that the politicians take into account the ordinary citizen demands jamais parfois souvent toujours How the National Deputies listen to the population? 26

27 % of those who fear the general threat of criminal violence in the country Pas du tout Peu probable Plutôt probable Très probable Probability to be personally victim of crime Beaucoup Assez 27

28 28

29 In % Malawi Mali Uganda Burundi Côte d'ivoire Presidency/Government NGO/ Inter. Institution/ Research center Others Total

30 30

31 31

32 32

33 Malawi (3% incidence) Côte d'ivoire (18% incidence) Police Health Uganda (19% incidence) Justice Tax Other Mali (8% incidence) Burundi (3% incidence) % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 33

34 % of victims Quintiles of expenditures/consumption unit (personally or a member of the HH) Total 1 st quintile 2 nd quintile 3 rd quintile 4 th quintile 5 th quintile Incidence (total population) No contact with the administration Incidence (population in contact) In 1,000 FBU (per year) Average amount (HH in contact) Median amount (HH in contact) % Expenditures (HH in contact)

35 en % Perception of corruption in Mali : evolution between 2014 and Pas du tout Pas vraiment Assez Beaucoup Solde d'opinion Sources : Enquêtes EMOP, Modules GPS-SHaSA, 2014 & 2015, INSTAT, Mali ; calculs des auteurs. Note : la question est formulée comme suit : Dans quelle mesure les personnes suivantes sont-elles impliquées dans la corruption? 35

36 36

37 The GPS-SHaSA initiative is already making the difference in three respects: Pushing further the frontiers of statistics (the big push for survey based indicators on GPS) Promoting democratic governance in LDCs and over the world Reverting the usual North-South methodological transfers to South-North, and in particular Africa-Rest of the world A unique opportunity to catch

38 Extensions, next steps: Scaling up in Africa (after pilot phase) : any donors in the room? Enlarging the geographical scope on the methodological component (Praia Group: Done!)

39 39

40 40