7 MONTHS AFTER: DELIVERING ON CAMPAIGN PROMISES

Transcription

1 ONGOING 27 1 ACHIEVED 222 PROMISES 194 NOT RATED 7 MONTHS AFTER: DELIVERING ON CAMPAIGN PROMISES DECEMBER 2015

2 ACRONYMS APC All Progressives Congress APCs Armoured Personnel Carriers CJTF Civilian Joint Task Force CBN Central Bank of Nigeria CDD Centre for Democracy and Development EFCC Economic and Financial Crimes Commission GDP Gross Domestic Product GEJ GoodluckEbele Jonathan HRW Human Rights Watch HYPREP - Hydrocarbon Pollution Restoration Project ICC-OTP International Criminal Court, Office of the Prosecutor ICPC Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IOCs International Oil Companies IPIS Personnel and Payroll Information Systems IPOB Indigenous People of Biafra JTF Joint Tast Force KRPC Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company MCCC Military Command and Control Centre MNJTF Multi-National Joint Task Force NAF - Nigerian Air Force 01

3 NBS National Bureau of Statistics NEITI Nigeria Extractive Industry and Transparency Initiative NNPC Nigeria National Petroleum Commission OSIWA Open Society Initiative for West Africa PIB Petroleum Industry Bill PMB President MuhammaduBuhari PTFP Presidential Task Force on Power PSIC Power Sector Investment Catalogue PWC PriceWaterhouseCoopers RWI Revenue Watch Institute RGI Resource Governance Institute SAN Senior Advocate of Nigeria TAM Turn Around Maintenance TCN Transmission Company of Nigeria UNEP United Nations Environment Programme USA United States of America USAID United State Agency for International Development 02

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS 1 Introduction 3 1.Priority Sectors/Issues: 5 Security 5 The Economy 11 Corruption 14 Oil and Gas 18 Agriculture 22 Social and Environment Sectors Year 2015 and PMB's Interventions "Metering" the Interventions PMB, Committees and Signing of Partnership/Memorandum of Understanding A Look into 2016 and Beyond Concluding Remarks: Matter Arising! Policy Recommendations About Buharimeter 47 03

5 INTRODUCTION his report is the fourth of many reports that willbe released by Buharimeter on the assessment of the performance of President TMuhammadu Buhari (PMB) and the governing party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), on the delivery of its 222 electoral promises. However, this report does not only assess the performance of PMB but also provides useful insights into the current state of key sectors as a way of establishing the basis of measuring outcomes. As such, this report examines issues around insecurity, the economy, oil and gas sector, corruption, agriculture sector and social sectors (with emphasis on enviroment). Further more, it provides infographics that review a range of such issues including: PMB's interventions to address longstanding development problems in priority sectors, ratings of his performance, and the number of committees set up and MoUs signed within his first seven months in office. There is also a look into the policy thrust of some ministries, revealed by their ministers at the end of The report concludes with a set of policy recommendations. 04

6 1Priority Sectors/Issues: Security Nigeria is grappling with a plethora of security challenges impacting democratic consolidation and sustainable development.challenges in the last seven months include: Boko Haram insurgency, conflict between herdsmen and farmers, rural banditry, ethno-religious conflicts, armed robbery, piracy, the secessionist movement, citizenship crisis, militancy, and kidnapping, amongst others. These are negatively impacting the business climate, causing hardship to Nigerians, with thousands of lives and property lost. The infographic below sums up the security challenges in the country: CHALLENGES OF SECURITY IN NIGERIA BOKO HARAM INSURGENCY CATTLE RUSTLING HERDSMEN VS FARMERS' CONFLICT BIAFRA AGITATION PIRACY KIDNAPPING ARMED ROBBERY ISLAMIC EXTREMISM 1 See the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), an annual publication of the Institute for Economics and Peace 2 CDD ECOWAS Counter Terrorism Tracker 05

7 Since the inauguration of PMB on May 29, 2015, the Nigerian military has made progress in curtailing the Boko Haram insurgency in North East Nigeria. President Buhari rejigged Nigeria's counter terrorism architecture, forged regional alliances, appointed new security chiefs and gave orders for the insurgency to be defeated by December2015. The Nigerian Army is making gradual gains in the war against terror: recovering territories and rescuing abducted citizens. Consequently, the adminstration have claimed a technical victory, arguing that Boko Haram is no longer capable of carrying out conventional attacks on security forces or population centres. According to President Buhari during an interview with BBC: "I think, technically, we have won the war Boko Haram has reverted to using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). They have now been reduced to that Boko Haram is an organised fighting force, I assure you, [but] we have dealt with them," (President Buhari on BBC,23rd December 2015). 1 However, Boko Haram was the deadliest terror group worldwide in 2014, accounting for 6,664 deaths. Since the inauguration of the new 2 administration, Boko Haram have killed an estimated 1,949 people 3 with hundreds of thousands internally displaced within this period. The sect continues to display strong resilience and shocking adaptability. Members of the group, who formerly travelled in armoured personnel carriers (APCs), now ride horses, motor bikes and bicycles to carry out their nefarious activities. These range from poisoning water when fleeing villages and adopting soft target attacks using suicide bombing, executed mostly by young girls. The insurgents have also carried out attacks in Nyanya and Kuje, on the outskirts of the capital city, Abuja. 3 According to UNCHR, the total number of internally displaced persons in Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, Yobe, Nasarawa states and Abuja as of August stood at 2,150,451 see 4 Supra 5 Government agency, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has responded to the plight of victims of Boko Haram in many ways, including providing humanitarian services, rehabilitation and training of journalists on rehabilitation programme and health workers on psychosocial support. In similar vein, development agencies such as UNDP and the Red Cross have trained victims of Boko Haram on vocational skills. For example, 500 victims have benefitted from the UNDP's Livelihood Support Scheme. 6 Dickson Adama, 2,400 displaced children now in unity schools - NEMA, Daily Trust, December 27, 2015, 7 The de-radicalisation program was part of the soft approach launched by the former National Security Adviser, SamboDasuki 06

8 The recent pledge of allegiance by Boko Haram to Islamic State has also seen the former becoming savvier in the use of technology; no longer utilising traditional media in disseminating information but rather releasing their news directly on social media. The insurgency is dynamic: taking on different trends on regular basis. However, some challenges arising from the insurgency have not received commensurate attention. Paramount is the situation of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The 4 number of IDPs has increased to over 2 million,over half of which are children. These IDPs can be categorised into different groups: IDPs in camps, IDPs staying with relatives in cramped apartments and IDPs who start new settlements or camp in empty spaces/houses. The main differences between these IDP groups is the varied availability of aid to these groups. While the government and its partners have been 5 responsive, their responses have been largely unable to improve the living conditions of IDPs, which are generally poor. There are severe health hazards in IDP camps, with cholera being just one example. From early September 2015, more than 500 cases of cholera were reported in five camps and the neighbouring communities in Maiduguri, Borno State. Education is also a concern for IDPs, with the government responding by putting in place education programmes in most camps. This includes the School on Wheels programme. A recent 6 report shows that 2,400 displaced children are now in Unity Schools but the numbers of school age children captured under this scheme is just a miniscule proportion of the total IDP population. Reports of human trafficking and sexual violence are also rampant in the camps. Another concern is that the estimated number of Nigerian refugees displaced to other countries stood at 164,715 at the end of October2015, 8 President Buhari's War Against Terror Social Science Research Council, Kujenga Amani 9 International Criminal Court, Reports of Preliminary Examination Activities, 2015, released on November 12, The modalities of the signed agreement are yet to be made public In September 2015, a military operation against cattle rustlers operating in Kamuku and Kuyanbana forests that cut across Kaduna, Niger, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi States, led to the recovery of more than 100 cows. 13 Prior to the emergence of IPOB, there was the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), led by Ralph Uwazuruike's and the Biafra Zionist Movement (BZM) spearheading the agitations for an independent Biafra. 07

9 with 34% in Cameroon, 9% in Chad and 57% in Niger. Most of the camps are overcrowded and lacking basic services and facilities thus posing high health risks to the camp population. As part of its soft strategy to tackle Boko Haram, the government is running a deradicalisation 7 program.however, there are reports of a lack of basic amenities, with reintegration plans for these deradicalised people being the most challenging issue. The government is yet to officially unveil its accountability plans for resolving the Boko Haram insurgency. This may be partly because the problem is not Boko Haram alone. Amnesty International recently issued a report titled Stars on Their Shoulders, Blood on Their Hands indicting the Nigerian military for its wanton killings in the war 8 9 against the insurgency. The ICC-OTP has also established eight possible cases of crimes against humanity in relation to the North East of Nigeria. This includes six possible cases against Boko Haram and two possible cases against the Nigerian security forces. The Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF) have also been accused of allegedly committing war crimes, both against Boko Haram and civilians, while aiding the Nigerian forces in countering the extremists. The government is pursuing several interventionist strategies to curtail the challenges arising from the insurgency. It has set up the soon to be inaugurated Presidential Committee on the North East, and recently 10 signed a $2.3 billion assistance agreement with USAID to eradicate poverty in the country, especially in the North East. However, it is important to state that there mote and immediate causes of violent extremism are still very much alive in the polity. There are smaller, less popular Islamic radical groups present in several parts of Northern 11 Nigeria. For instance, Yanlabaiku in Kebbi state is preaching against 08

10 Western education and Westernisation, and Niger state is pervaded by different radical Islamist groups. Most of these groups live in seclusion, preaching and practicing radical Islam. For example, the Darul Salam is displaced in Mokwa, and the Ibrassiya Huda Islamic Sect is displaced in a forest from Lapai. While for now they may seem peaceful, they are likely to constitute a threat to the Nigerian State in future. Rural banditry continues to constitute a challenge to Nigeria. Armed bandits continue to terrorise rural communities, rustling cattle, raping and abducting women and girls, killing people and committing highway robbery. Rural banditry is threatening cattle herds and increasing tension in Northern Nigeria. Media monitoring reveals that in September 2015 an estimated 119 deaths were recorded from rural banditry attacks alone. While government at both state and national 12 level are making efforts to address this problem, not enough is being done to solve the violence. In several parts of the country, ungoverned spaces continue to exist, with war lords holding sway. States immensely affected by rural banditry include: Kaduna, Plateau, Zamfara, Taraba, Benue, Niger, Nassarawa, Bauchi, and Kastina. The casualities caused by this insecurity area threat to the socio-economic stability of the affected communities and Nigeria overall. Agitation for the state of Biafra continues. The renewed agitation is 13 spearheaded by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) led by Nnamdi Kanu, popularly referred to as the "Director". Kanu, based in London, has apirate radio station 'Radio Biafra' which has been broad casting 14 incendiary messages threatening to bring down the "zoo". Nnamdi Kanu was arrested during a visit to Nigeria on October 14,2015 and has since been charged to court for treasonable felony. Street protests and 15 violence in parts of the country have continued to trail his arrest. The 09

11 attempt to disperse the protests of IPOB by the Joint Task Force (JTF)led to violence: nine protesters were reportedly killed in Onitsha and 16 several injured. The handling of the Biafra protests is generating significant concern as the security agencies are seen to respond inappropriately- not only in alleged extra-juducial killings, but also in the molestation of innocent citizens. For example, the Ohaneze Youth Council released a press statement alleging the molestations of Easterners travelling home for Christmas by the 302nd Battalion of the 17 Nigerian Army on Niger Bridge. The state approach, and particularly the security sector approach, in handling the conflicts remains cause for concern across society. There are fears that if the IPOB is not properly managed, it may degenerate into a low level insurgency, further compounding current security challenges. Soon after the security agents clampdown on the Biafra seperatist movement, there were reports that the Nigerian Army, in preventing an alleged attempted assasination on the Chief of Army staff, General Buratai, killed twenty Shia members in Zaria. The Shiaare said to have put up barricades and blocked the road to be used by General Buratai. The Army went to the sect's enclave Husainiyyah, the residence of sect leader Ibrahim Zakzaky in Gyallesu, and the DarurRahma mosque, where many unarmed people were killed. Human Rights Watch (HRW), has alleged that no fewer than 300 members of the Shiasect were killed and secretly buried by members of 18 the Nigerian army. 14 NnamdiKanu refers to Nigeria as the 'zoo country'. 15 Protests were held in Anambra, Abia, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi,Rivers states and Abuja. 16 Nine Killed as Pro Biafra Protests turned Bloody Vanguard December 3,2015http:// 17 Ohaneze Youth Council Protests Against Soldiers Molestation, December 31, Nigeria accused of killing hundreds of Shia Muslims December Economic and fiscal implications of Nigeria's rebased GDP 10

12 N The Economy The Nigerian economy has enjoyed sustained economic growth for a decade, with annual real GDP increasing by around 7% in Following the rebasing of the economy in 2014, Nigeria emerged as the largest economy in Africa and 26thlargest in the world.however, dwindling commodity prices, fear of post-election violence and the slow start by the new administration have impacted the economy unfavourably. The PMB administration began at a slow pace with ministers only appointed in mid-november 2015, thus making it difficult for any concise policy to be unveiled by the end of This further impacted the already fragile economy. Since the second quarter of 2014, Nigeria has experienced a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal that in 2014 GDP growth decreased from 6.54% in the second quarter to 5.94% in the fourth quarter. GDP growth dropped to 2.35% in the second quarter of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015 is 2.84% in real terms, which represents an increase of 0.49% from the second quarter of 2015, and yet also a 3.38% reduction from the 6.32% recorded in the corresponding quarter of Following the fall of crude oil prices and the resulting pressure on the Naira, the Nigerian inflation rate reached an all-time high in the last six months of Inflation increased to an average of 9.3% between June and November

13 NIGERIA INFLATION RATE Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015 SOURCE: TRADINGECONOMICS.COM / NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS, NIGERIA According to the NBS report of November 2015, the rise in the inflation rate was mainly driven by higher food and non-alcoholic beverage prices. Following the crash in the price of crude oil from $115 per barrel in June 2014 to the current low of around $37 per barrel, the revenues of the country have been hugely impacted. This is because oil accounts for a huge proportion of the Nigerian economy, with the oil sector generating up to 80% of the country's revenue and 90% of foreign exchange earnings. The crash in the oil price has impacted the foreign exchange rate, leading to volatility. The Naira continues to depreciate against other foreign currencies, with, for example, the official exchange rates for the dollar by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) currently at$1 to N197. $1 is trading for N270 on the parrallel market. Several policies have recently been introduced by CBN in an attempt to reduce this pressure on the Naira. These include restricting the supply of foreign 20 These items include rice, cement, margarine, palm kernel/palm oil products/vegetable oil, meat and processed meat products, vegetable and processed vegetable products, poultry -chicken, eggs, turkey, private airplanes/jet, Indian incense, tinned fish in sauce - Geisha/Sardines, cold rolled steel sheet and galvanised steel sheets 12

14 exchange to importers, and limiting products that can be bought using dollars to a list of 40 items.there are also new CBN policies on foreign currency, dollar policy and ATM card use abroad to preserve the external reserves. These policies are, however, all generating unintended negative consequences. Nigeria's foreign trade reports for imports and exports during the third quarter of 2015alsoshowed an unprecedented decline. According to NBS, the value of total merchandise trade comprising Nigeria's imports and exports in the third quarter decreased by N2.5 trillion or 38.3%, compared to the corresponding quarter of The total value of trade in the third quarter of 2015 was N4.02 trillion as against N6.4 trillion in the corresponding period of This was caused by a decline of N132.4 billion or 7.3% and N2.4 trillion or 50.3% in imports and exports respectively, from 2014.The NBS report reveals a steady decline in the economy as the value of trade dropped by N338 billion against the 21 preceding quarter of Devaluation of the Naira, together with the inflationary trend, has raised Nigeria's debt stock payment to N12.12 trillion. The national debt stock, made up of federal and states' external obligations, as well as domestic borrowings, were put at $67.7 billion as of December 31, 2014, but reduced to $63.8 billion as of June 30, However, changes in the exchange rate have affected these figures, as shown by the following. In December 2014, the $67.7 billion balance was worth N11.2 trillion, at the exchange rate of N166/$. This moved to N12.06 trillion at a reduced debt stock of $63.5 billion in March 2015, based on the exchange rate of N197/$. In June 2015, the debt stock rose to $63.8 billion or N trillion, at the exchange rate of N197/$. 13

15 The government has created several directives and policies to improve the economy. Unfortunately, these are mainly monetary policies that could not hold sway in the absence of fiscal policies. The reversal of some economic policies and the poor implementation of the Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) Agreement have not created an enabling environment for investments. The deplorable state of infrastructure in the country is also disturbing given its relevance to boosting investment, industrial growth and the economy. There is hardly any part of the country that has well-maintained roads. The railway system is dysfunctional and the air transport sector is largely inefficient, as well as being unaffordable for the vast majority of the population. The unreliable power supply has been a major challenge for the development of Nigeria's economy. For example, a recent study of power generation statistics between January and August 2015, conducted by the Power Advisory Group, revealed that only 25% of Nigeria's 112,522MW of installed capacity reaches the end users. The shortfall is due to obsolete equipment and poor maintenance of existing 23 power plants. To help address the unemployment rate - that currently 24 stands at 9.90% - government needs to formulate policies to address the problems of the power and transportation sectors and provide adequate social amenities. Mechanisms to ensure the effective implementation of the policies should be put in place, coupled with political will. CORRUPTION Corruption Corruption is one of the major threats to socio-economic, political and human development in Nigeria. Corruption is endemic: it has become embedded in the fabric of society. Since the country'stransition to democracy in 1999, there havebeen attempts to fight corruption with 21 Emeka Anaeto and Emma Ujah, "CBN now to allocate forex to end users", Vanguard, December 28, 2015, page 1 and Currency depreciation, inflation push Nigeria's debt stock above N12 trillion, 23 LaoluAdeyemi, The Year Ends in Dwindling Power Supply, The Guardian, December 26, Unemployment/Under-employment Watch, Q3 2015, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), accessed at the 15th of December

16 several reforms undertaken and institutions created. They include the establishment of anti-corruption agencies such as the Economic and Financial Crime Commission, Independent Corruption and other Practices Commission, and the National Financial Intelligence Unit. Reforms include public service reform, monetisation to reduce waste and personnel, and reform of public procurement. However, it is disturbing to note that the prevailing state of corrupt practices in Nigeria suggests that corruption itself is more institutionalised than the anti-graft agencies established to curb it. Corruption has continued to grow unabated in the face of high impunity, with previous governments making no attempt to prosecute perperators of corruption. The scale of the problem is indicated by the fact that Nigeria is ranked 136 out of 176 countries with a score of 27 out of 100 on the 2014 Corruption 25 Perception Index. Since the inaguration of the new administration, there have been visible efforts to combat corruption in the country. The adminstration has reached out to several foreign states to assist in the recovery of stolen funds. The United States has pledged to cooperate with the PMB 26 administration in locating and retrieving laundered monies. The 27 government has also set up several 'corruption probes', targeted at recovering looted funds and dismantling the setup that had previously engendered financial maladministration. Equally, the anti-corruption searchlight has been beamed on income-generating government institutions such as Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA). The anti-graft agencies are also pursuing cases of high level corruption among the political class. 25 This index measures perceived level of corruption in the public sector.between 2011 and 2014, Nigeria has maintained an average score of 26; which means that the country has made little or no effort within this period to fight against widespread bribery and punish corrupt public official which culminated in the poor score. 26 US to Buhari: We will help you recover stolen funds, Daily Trust, July 21, 2015 [Accessed: July 24 at 27 Ibanga Isine Buhari will probe Jonathan's govt only; Obasanjo's, Others - Presidency, Premium Times, July http:// buhari-will-probe-jonathans-govt-only-not-obasanjos-others-presidency.html] 28 BuhariConstitutes Advisory Committee on Anti-corruption ThisDay August 10,

17 Notable amongst the investigations into corruption is the ongoing arms deal under former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.A13-man committee was set up by the Office of the National Security Adviser to audit the procurement of arms and equipment in the Armed Forces and Defence sector, from 2007 to date. The committee produced a report that indicts former National Security Adviser, Lt Col. Sambo Dasuki, of awarding over N271.8 billion in fictitious contracts. The contracts were for the purchase of four Alpha Jets, 12 helicopters, bombs and ammunition. According to the report, the equipment was neither supplied to the Nigerian Air Force nor in its inventory. Following this, EFCC has arrested and arraigned the former NSA Chief together with other culprits, including Dr. Raymond Dokpesi (the owner of Daar Communication Ltd).The arms probe has shown just how endemic corruption is in the country. Other high level corruption cases pursued since the inauguration of PMB government include: the investigation of Senate President Dr. Bukola Saraki, Zainab Yar'Adua (daughter of former President Umaru Yar'Adua), Mrs. Toyin Saraki (wife of Senate President), Sule Lamido, and others. The administration has also set up a Presidential Advisory Committee 28 on Corruption made up of a seven-member committee to advise on tackling corruption and the implementation of required reforms in Nigeria's criminal justice system. An Anti-Corruption and Criminal Justice Reform Fund has also been established, with funds contributed by three international development partners, namely the Ford Foundation, MacArthur Foundation and Open Society Foundation. The $5 million fund will assist in the implementation of key components of the Action Plan and the work of the Presidential Advisory Committee. 29 Why Buhari removed Ibrahim Lamorde as EFCC chairman 30 RWI is now known as Resource Governance Institute (RGI) 31 RGI measures the quality of governance in the oil, gas and mining sector of 58 countries. 32 The components include Institutional and Legal Setting; Reporting Practice; Safeguards and Quality Control; and Enabling Environment. 16

18 EFCC was reconstituted on the 9th of November 2015, following the replacement of Ibrahim Lamorde with Ibrahim Magu as the Chairman, by PMB. Mr. Lamorde was accused by Dr. George Uboh of diverting N1 trillion, previously recovered by EFCC. In a statement made by PMB's Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Femi Adesina, Mr. Lamorde has been replaced due to the fact that the "Presidency was uncomfortable 29 with some disclosures by the petitioner, George Uboh ". PMB anti-corruption efforts have been commended as a step in the right direction. Positive opinions in this regard are due to the possible positive impact of the efforts on development and democracy in the country. However, the government has been accused of politics of selection in the fight against corruption. A delay in the prosecution of the accused people has been a major criticism of the government. Moreover, while the government has shown unmatched commitment to curbing corruption, such effort should be institutionalised. One of the promises of the current administration is to strengthen the capacity of anti-graft agencies, particularly EFCC and ICPC, by guaranteeing their prosecutorial and financial independence as well as security of tenure. Despite the fact that the anti-grant agencies have shown renewed efforts in the fight against corrupt practices, there has been no effort by the government to amend relevant laws to guarantee their independence in these areas. Moreover, nothing has been done to enact the Whistle Blower Act, as promised by the administration. We believe that through these interventions, the performance of anti-graft agencies would not rely on the personality and political will of President Buhari, but rather the campaign against corruption would be institutionalised and thereby would extend beyond the current administration. 17

19 OIL & GAS Oil and Gas Nigeria has the largest oil and gas industry on the African continent, contributing over 70% of government revenues and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings to Africa's largest economy. However, the oil industry has been plagued with numerous challenges since the country's return to democracy. For many years, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has been accused of suspicious practices, including corruption and absence of accountability and transparency measures in its operations. In 2013, Revenue Watch 31 Institute (RWI) ranked Nigeria 40 out of 58 (with a composite score of 31 42) in its Resource Governance Index (RGI). 32 The RGI reveals the endemic nature of resource governance deficit in the sector. These severe governance challenges have led to: wastage of the country's resources and revenue loss; invention of a makeshift system by the nation's sole oil corporation for financing its operations and discretionary retaining of ever-growing revenue; unbalanced 33 Offshore Processing Agreements (OPAs), amongst others. There is no law that encourages openness nor are there mechanisms for limiting conflict of interest and curbing discretionary power. Combined with only weak or failing standards of transparency these factors make 34 information about the sector inaccessible to citizens. With moribund refineries, the country entered into Offshore Processing Agreements (OPAs) and Crude for Petroleum Products Exchange Agreements, better known as crude oil swaps. Besides the opacity in these agreements, the main fallout is the abysmal performance of the refineries. 18

20 The NNPC's financial and operation report (covering the period of January to August 2015) revealed that contrary to the earlier claim about robust performance of the management of the country's 35 refineries in Kaduna, Port Harcourt and Warri, the refineries actually 36 recorded average capacity utilisation of 10.4%. Nonetheless, hope of a better oil production outlook has been ignited following a recent report that the Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company (KRPC) has 37 commenced daily production of 3.2 million litres of petrol. One of the longstanding challenges confronting the effective provision of the seamless flow of petroleum products to oil retail outlets are the activities of pipeline vandals. Apart from the fact that such activities threaten the availability of petrol to end users, huge amounts of revenue needed to pursue the diversification of the economy are lost through this vandalism. It was reported that Nigeria lost 531million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), valued at N50 billion, to pipeline 38 vandals between January and September In an attempt to tackle the problem, the current administration has put in place mechanisms such as a tracking system of oil flows and a partnership with the Navy to curtail oil theft through vandalisation of pipelines. However, the problem remains severe as emphasis is on preventive measures with no visible attempt to address the root causes for the vandalisation. The price of oil on the international market continues to plummet. 39 Currently, the oil price has fallen to $37 per barrel, the lowest the country has experienced in recent years. This has led to doubts about the capacity of government to generate enough revenue from oil products to fund the 2016 national budget. Oil prices are still falling, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting that they could 33 Aaron Sayne, Alexandra Gillies and Christina Katsouris (2015), Inside NNPC Oil Sales: A Case for Reform in Nigeria, Natural Resource Governance, retrieved at on the 28th of December The 2013 resource Governance Index, Revenue Watch Institute, 35 In the 100days report, it was reported that due to resumption of preliminary operations after the Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) of all the four refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna, the refineries work at their installed capacity-60%, 80% and 70% respectively. 36 Refineries operated at 10% capacity in August, recorded N31.7bn loss, BusinessNews (October 20, 2015), capacity-in-august-recorded-n31-7bn-loss/ 37 Daniel Adugbo, Kaduna Refinery begins daily supply of 3.2m litres of petrol, Daily Trust, December 24, Nigeria loses N50bn to oil thieves in nine months -NNPC, 39 'Oil falls to $37, over 11 year low as excess supply weighs', The Guardian, December 29,

21 fall as low as $20 per barrel in This is far below the benchmark of $38 per barrel for the budget, meaning the government's budget performance may be low if the IMF projections materialise. Nigeria must prioritise the diversification of its economy from sole reliance on oil revenue. This will entail significant political will, a robust legal framework and financing. There is also ongoing public outcry over the need for are duction in the pump price of petrol from N87 to N50. For instance, the President of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), Comrade Bobboi Kaigama, stated that the drastic drop in the price of crude oil on the international market should 40 have a direct effect on the domestic consumption of the product. Nigeria is said to have lost the sum of $ million to gas flaring in 41 the first quarter of Nigeria must also immediately priorities its gas industry so the country can soon attain the status of an gas producing/exporting country. Nigeria is yet to deal with the problem of the shortage of oil produce, especially petrol, to its citizens as well as adequate gas for domestic and industrial use, and the provision of energy for the power sector. In the last few months, queues in oil retail outlets in major cities have not disappeared, despite approval of the payment of over N300 billion to the oil marketers by the National Assembly. Department of Petroleum 42 Resources (DPR) has seized and fined some oil retail outlets for hoarding oil produce and selling it at unofficial prices. Even so, the conspiracy amongst oil dealers increases as Nigerians bought petrol at 43 prices as high as N325 per litre in places like Jos, Plateau State. Although, with the recent re-adjustment of the oil pricing template in the domestic market indicates petrol will sell at N86.50 and N86 at 40 Mohammed Shosanya, 'Petrol should sell at N50 per litre - TUC', Daily Trust, December 25, Michael Eboh, Nigeria loses N72bn to gas flaring, Vanguard, August 4, NafiziDawud, 'Kano Petrol station fined N4.2m for hoarding', Daily Trust, December 28, LamiSadiq, 'Petrol reaches N325 in Jos', Daily Trust, December 24, Bamas Victoria, 'Civil Defence Corp destroys 200 illegal refineries and prosecuted 120 persons involved in vandalism', Daily Trust, December 29,

22 retail outlets owned by independent,major marketers and NNPC respectively respectively from January 1, 2016, how this will pan out is as yet unclear. In the Niger Delta, the Nigerian Navy and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corp (NSCDC) have clamped down on oil bunkers, illegal refineries and piracy. It is difficult to estimate the number of illegal refineries that have thus far been destroyed since the inception of the new administration but it was recently reported that NSCDC alone has 44 destroyed 200 illegal refineries. The Nigerian Navy has embarked on air bombardment and ground destruction of these illegal refineries in various capacities. The condition of the refineries is no doubt inimical to the enviroment, but the bombardment itself has also not helped. Other than the economic loss due to the bombardment, there are debates on what wealth the government could generate from the illegality of the oil refineries. The bombardment occurred amidst the government's effort to encourage modular refineries, with 65 licences already approved. There is a need for government to consider how illegal refineries can become an opportunity for development in the oil and gas sector, rather than simply destroying the refineries and so damaging the environment. The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) is the comprehensive outcome of the Nigeria Oil and Gas Sector Reform Implementation Committee to restructure the oil and gas industry towards achieving sustainable development. The PIB seeks to establish a legal, fiscal and regulatory framework for the petroleum industry in Nigeria; however it has suffered the most challenges in the National Assembly. The new administration has promised to reintroduce a more robust PIB before the 8th National Assembly. The PMB adminstration stance includes promoting efficency 21

23 in NNPC. More so, there is a proposal for the division of NNPC into two companies, namely the Nigeria Petroleum Assets Management Company (NPAM) and a National Oil Company (NOC). AGRICULTURE & OTHERS Agriculture Nigeria is one of the largest countries in Africa, with a total geographical area of 923,768 square kilometers and an estimated population of million. In the 1960s, agriculture was the most important sector in terms of contribution to the country's GDP, foreign exchange and employment generation. The country had a comparative advantage over the exportation of palm oil, cocoa, cotton and groundnut prior to the oil boom in the 1970s. However, despite the rich endowment and success prior to the oil boom, the agricultural sector has since been growing at a very low rate. In the mid-70s, Nigeria became a net importer of various agricultural products. In 1982 alone, Nigeria imported 153,000 million tons of palm 46 oil at the cost of $92 million and 55,000 million tons of cotton valued at $92 million. Between1973 and 1980, a total of 7.07 million tons of wheat, 1.62 million tons of rice and 431,000 tons of maize were imported. The cost of food imports in Nigeria rose from N47.8 million in 47 the 1960s to N88.2 million in 1970 and N1,027 million in Since the 1990s, Nigeria has been spending an average of $60 million on the importation of rice annually. Indeed, in 1994, the agricultural sector 48 performed below the projected 7.2% of budgetary output. The country currently has 75% of land suitable for agriculture but only 40% is 49 cultivated. This trend in the share of agriculture in the GDP shows a substantial variation and long-term decline from 60% in the early 1960s 45 See 46 Alkali, R.A. (1997) The World Bank and Nigeria: Cornucopia or Pandora Box? Kaduna: Baraka Press. 47 Ibid, pg OlukoyaOgen (2007), The Agricultural Sector and Nigeria's Development: Comparative Perspectives from the Brazilian Agro-Industrial Economy, , Nebula, March Omorogbe O., Jelena Z. and Fatima A., 'The Role of Agriculture in the Economic Development of Nigeria' European Scientific Journal, February 2014, Vol. 10, No See 51 The Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report: Quarter One 2014, The Nigerian Bureau of Statistic, accessed at 22

24 50 to 48.8% in the 1970s and 22.2% in the 1980s. In the first quarter of , the contribution of agriculture to GDP was 19.7%. Since the restoration of democracy in 1999, previous administrations have initiated numerous programmes and policies to restore the past success of the sector, with the overall agenda of boosting food production in the country. These included facilitating or improving access to agricultural credit schemes, developing technical-know-how of farmers, and easing access to fertilizers and other facilities. Nonetheless, the growth of the sector is still confronted with numerous challenges, including: lack of access to land for cultivation, lack of access to credit facilities, over-reliance on importation of food produce, rural-urban drift, marketing problems, infrastructure inadequacies, and unstable input and output prices. In view of these challenges, the PMB administration has expressed 52 commitmment to improving this sector. One of the critical steps taken was the establishment of four National Committees on the revitalisation of the agricultural sector in Nigeria by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The government has also signed an MoU with an Indian firm for the establishment of a Bio-fertilizer factory and research center in Abuja, while CBN has launched the Anchor Borrowers' Programme in Kebbi State to boost the production of agricultural produce. 52 The Committees include operationalisation of Federal Government storage and Agro Processing facilities; Resuscitation of Cotton, Textile and Garments; strategic Action Plan for the Development of Grazing Reserves and Stock Routes Nationwide; and Revitalisation of Agricultural Extension Services in Nigeria. 23

25 Social and Environment Sectors In a bid to to address the on going environmental challenges in the Niger Delta, in August 2015, PMB approved a $10 million take-off grant for the implementation of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) Assessment on Ogoniland and the Governing Council of the Hydrocarbon Pollution Restoration Project (HYPREP). The take-off grant will be contributed by the government and the international oil companies (IOCs). Enthusiasm about the socioeconomic implications of the initiative was expressed by not only civil society groups, youth and leaders of the South-South but also Nigerians, who understand its significance to the development of the present day Niger Delta. However, since August 2015, there is no strong indication that this has been meaningfully undertaken. Thus, the remediation project with a $10m Trust Fund is laudable but the public need to know how far the government has gone in committing itself and multinational oil companies to the clean up of Ogoniland. It is particularly concerning that, seven months into the PMB administration, there have been no visible attempts by the government to take necessary action towards the achievement of promises made to improve the education, health and water sectors. This is disturbing given that the economic and security challenges facing the country at the moment are not isolated from the problems confronting these sectors. 24

26 Year 2015 and PMB Interventions

27 Security Relocated the Military Command and Control Centre (MCCC) from Abuja to Maiduguri, Borno State. Established Multi-national Joint Task made up of Nigeria, Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Benin Strengthening regional and international alliances with Chad, Niger, Cameroon, Benin, USA, France, India and Hungary for the fight against Boko Haram. Issuance of Presidential ultimatum to the Nigeria Military to defeats Boko Haram by Dec. 30th, 2015 Directive to the Chief of Naval Staff to clear the Niger Delta of pirates and illegal oil bunkers. 3,032 OFFICERS PARDONED Pardoned and reinstated dismissed 3,032 convicted Nigerian military officers Appointment of new security chiefs (Army, Navy and Air Force) with a marching order to end the insurgency in December,

28 SCHOLARSHIPS Offered scholarships to the children of slain officers and cheques to their families. Donated N40 million to bomb blast victims in Kano State. NORTH EAST INTERVENTION Constituted Presidential Committee on the North East for the development of comprehensive plan for reconstruction of the North-east region, resettlement and rehabilitation of the victims of terrorism CHIBOK GIRLS An offer of amnesty to Boko Haram on the condition that the Chibok girls will be released 433 TERRORIST RE-INTEGRATION Inaugurated Committee to oversee social reintegration of at least 433 terrorists who renounced their membership of the Boko Haram sect. $2.3bn Signed $2.3 billion grant from the United State Agency for International Development to address poverty in Nigeria, especially in the Northeast part of the country MOBILE SCHOOLS Lauched mobile containerised schools in Internally Displaced Persons' (IDPs) Camps to ensure that school-age children have access to basic education while in their respective camps. 27

29 N The Economy Restricted access to foreign currency to stop a slide in the Naira. Stopped cash exchange deposits to forestall a dollar denominated economy and the increasing pressure of the nation's foreign exchange market Directive to exclude some essential raw materials from the list of items valid for the Nigerian Foreign Exchange markets. Reduced annual and daily limit on the usage of naira denominated cards outside the country. Reduced Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Cash Reserves Ratio (CRR) from 13 percent to 11 percent and from 25 percent to 20 percent respectively. Inaugurated a 17-member Power Sector Investment Catalogue (PSIC) Committee to produce a document that would guide investors in the sector for an improved power generation capacity and capability in the country Created waste-cutting unit within the finance ministry to bolster the government's budget position and an economy battered by sliding oil prices. Signed an agreement on Solar Energy with UK to boost its power programme and to provide electricity to rural people. 28

30 Set up a committee to work out modalities for the establishment of a national carrier for the country. Established partnership with the Chinese government to develop rail sector in the country ,648MW Granted licence to eight firms to generate 1,648MW electricity. $2.4 bn Approved $2.4 billion for the construction of Lagos Red Line Rail Project. 29

31 Corruption Publicly declared asset and liability by PMB and the Vice-President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo. Issued directive to civil servants to henceforth respond to the auditor's queries within 24 hours; and all pending queries must be responded to within 30 days. Commenced monthly publication of the NNPC's financial and operational report TSA Introduced Treasury Single Account (TSA) for all federal revenues. CONTINOUS AUDIT PROCESS Ordered constant Continuous Audit Process (CAP) to check personnel costs IPPIS Capturing of staff of all MDAs on the Integrated Personnel and Payroll Information Systems (IPPIS) in order to curtail some of abuses in the government salaries. Partnering with countries such as Switzerland, Britain and USA to help locate and retrieve stolen assets from Nigeria. Set up Committee to review downward existing salaries and allowances of political, public and judicial office holders in the country Constituted a 7-member Presidential Advisory Committee against Corruption (PACC) headed by Professor Itse Sagay (SAN) to advice the administration on how to craft policy and strategy on its anti-corruption programme. Appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) and KPMG to conduct forensic audits into the accounts of all revenue-generating agencies of the government. 30

32 Oil and Gas OPEN OPA BIDDING Reviewed and terminated Offshore Processing Agreement (OPA), and opened a bid for award of fresh OPA with 101 Nigerian and multinational companies competed for the deal. 65 MODULAR REFINERIES Granted licence to 65 Nigerian companies to construct modular refineries with capacities ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 barrels per day Cancelled contract for delivery of Crude Oil to Refineries to reduce cost and the use of marine vessels to strengthen operational efficiency across its value chain. 32% NNPC PERSONNEL REDUCTION Prunned top management personnel of the state-owned firm from 122 to 83 and reduced its Directorate from eight to four, with twelve (12) newly recruited personnel to give the Corporation a new business outlook. Using tracking technology to protect pipeline vandalisation Cancelled oil and gas partnership inspection and monitoring agent's tendering process $1.2bn MULTI-YEAR DRILLING FINANCING Secured a $1.2bn multi-year drilling financing package for 36 Offshore/Onshore Oil wells under the NNPC/Chevron Nigeria Limited Joint Venture. 31

33 Agriculture and Others Set up of four National Committees on the revitalization of the agricultural sector in Nigeria by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. CBN launched Anchor Borrowers' Programme in Kebbi State to boost production of agricultural produce BIO-FERTILIZER FACTORY Signed a Memorandum of Understanding with an Indian firm for the establishment of a Biofertilizer factory and research center in Abuja. MoU Signed MoU with Huawei to train 2000 Nigerians on ICT Approved cleaning up of Ogoniland as recommended by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on the environmental restoration of Ogoniland. $10m Commitment of $10million as a trust Fund for the HYPREP Amended the official gazette establishing the Hydrocarbon Pollution Restoration Project (HYPREP). 32

34 3 Metering" the Interventions. METERING THE INTERVENTIONS The infographics below shows that PMB has only achieved 1 out of the 222 tracked promises, which constitutes 0.5 percent of the promises. More so, it reveals that while the government is taking action to achieving only 27 (12.2 percent approximately) of the tracked promises thus ongoing, 194 electoral promises are still Not Rated. The latter constitutes 87.3 percent of the tracked promises. ONGOING PROMISES ACHIEVED PROMISES UNACHIEVED PROMISES PROMISES NOT YET RATED (Due to no tangible related activities being implemented) CORRUPTION NATIONAL SECURITY EMPLOYMENT AGRICULTURE & DEFENCE ENVIRONMENT NIGER DELTA FOREIGN POLICY INFRASTRUCTURE OIL & GAS SECTORS WITHOUT ANY CAMPAIGN PROMISE BEING IMPLEMENTED AS AT JAN POLITICS & GOVERNANCE 11 ICT 4 INDUSTRIAIZATION 13 SPORTS & CULTURE 13 EDUCATION HEALTH 8 30 WOMEN & YOUTH EMPOWERMENT PWD 1 12 HOUSING 6 WATER & SANITATION 5 SOCIAL SAFETY NET 3 33

35 4 PMB, Committees and Signing of Partnership/Memorandum of Understanding 12 Committees. Buhari Sets Up Committee on War against Corruption Salary Crisis: Buhari names committee to consider sharing excess oil money FG Inaugurates 4 Special Committees to Revamp Agric Sector Buhari set up Committee to begin Probe Management of the Proceeds of Excess Crude Account and its Accruals. FG names 13-member committee on new national airline for Nigeria Federal Government sets up committee on reintegration of repentant Boko Haram members. Buhari raises 13-member panel to probe weapon procurement since 2007 FG inaugurates 16-man committee on restructuring MDAs Federal Government Sets Up Investment Committee to Track Foreign Investors FG Inaugurates C'ttee on Constitution of Boards, Parastatals FG Inaugurates 11-Man Committee on Housing Corruption: FG Sets up C'ttees to Probe Seven Universities, Three Polytechnics 34

36 AGREEMENTS SIGNED BY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Nigeria, US sign $2.3bn agreement to reduce poverty Nigeria, UK sign agreement on solar energy FG signs MoU with Huawei to train 2000 Nigerians on ICT Nigeria, Egypt, Australia, 3 others sign MoU on marine certification 5 Nigeria, Global Good sign MoU on Technological Solutions 6 Federal Government Signs MOU on Bio-Fertilizer 7 8 Govt signs $237m FG pens agreement World Bank to build 500 electricity deal housing units with Nigeria Signs New Oil Swap Agreement Nigeria Signs agreement with Germany to end polio in the country The National Broadcasting Commission Signed an Event Hosting Agreement with CTO 35

37 5A Look into 2016 and Beyond t seems the PMB administration has many plans to achieve electoral promises made to Nigerians, from 2016 onwards. This canbe Ideduced from media reviews of the policy directions of some ministries, as expressed by their ministers, towards the end of Generally, the broader agenda of the policy thrust is to build a more diversified economy, improve the country's internally-generated revenue and job creation. The following presents highlights of policy ideas of some of the ministries: PETROLEUM MINISTRY Finding of more oil and gas to shore up revenue profile of the Federal Government from the Petroleum Sector. Splitting of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, into two companies the Nigeria Petroleum Assets Management Company (NPAM) and a National Oil Company (NOC) that would be run on commercial lines and partly privatised. Gas development and gas infrastructure would also take center stage in order to mop up some of the stranded gas. Privatisation of the [INFOGRAPHICS country's petroleum products HERE] pipeline chain. Removal of subsidy for imported petrol and adjustment of oil pricing template in domestic market in SOLID MINERAL MINISTRY Support and grow Nigeria's position in mineral assets with commercially proven reserves to boost and strengthen domestic industrialization and export markets. Expand geosciences databases and insights through relevant research as well as mineral that the country competes with. 36

38 SOLID MINERAL MINISTRY (contd.) Build an investor friendly regulatory environment. Use a partnership model with investors, communities, artisanal miners and states to create the right incentives for all parties. Strengthen the institutional support to artisanal and small-scale miners for integrating them into the formal economy. Improve access to capital for solid minerals sector operators, large and small, by working closely with banks, and other financial institutions, public and private. Use solid minerals as a growth catalyst for communities by engaging closely with multiple MDAs to ensure that communities are treated with respect and professionalism to ensure that they can build a diversified economy over the years. Undertake an audit of privatised assets. Invest in capacity building for the technical and operational staff in the Ministry and organise the Ministry for optimal delivery of its goals. Partner with non-state actors especially Community Development Associations and Civil Society Organisations to promote participation and inclusion and ensure community development and safer/environmentally sustainable mining practices, etc. 37

39 HOUSING, WORKS AND POWER MINISTRY Re-introduction of highway tolling to raise additional funds to finance road infrastructure and ensure efficient road maintenance. Spending of N10 billion to build low income housing estates in each of the states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Contractors to finish on-going transmission contracts to enable the Ministry transport the power being generated to the Discos to distribute. Identify and enumerate industrial and commercial clusters where manufacturing, fabrication, welding and related productive work is going on, especially by small businesses and to see how the Ministry can use the existing Legal framework to attract embedded power supply to these people who must be ready to pay for the power. Complete 10MegaWatt wind energy project in Katsina, a 215 MW plant in Kaduna and the 3,050 MW plant in Mambilla Taraba State. Get land from the Governors in all states and the FCT to start the housing development across the country using the LagosHoms model, starting with 40 Blocks of Housing in each state and the FCT. Introduce a Multi-Year Tariff Order in electricity billing to the end users. TRANSPORTATION Ministry of Transportation will embark on transportation of petroleum products to their various destinations by rail from 2016 to reduce risks associated with trucking by road. Repositioning of transportation subsector including aviation, road transportation, maritime and water. Resuscitation of commercial traffic from Port Harcourt to Aba, amongst others. 38

40 AGRICULTURE Initiation of Labour Intensive Family Enterprise (LIFE). Construction of 20km Earth/Farm Roads in Niger State. Creation of agricultural extension services office in every local government areas in Nigeria. Proposed signing of $300m rice project with Chinese Company, HellogJiang Pingyuan Rice Group. To set up animal artificial insemination centres across the country. Employment and training of 30,000 youth in agribusiness through Youth Employment in Agriculture Programme (YEAP). OTHERS: Recruitment of 500,000 teachers. Skill acquisition programme for 500,000 non-graduate youth across the country. To unveil a strategic national communication plan to counter the ideology and teaching of the terror outfit and other such groups 39

41 6Concluding Remarks: Matter Arising! even months have passed since the inauguration of the new administration on May 29th, It is obvious during this period Sthat certain steps were taken to address the longstanding development challenges that cut across different sectors of Nigeria's economy. Fundamentally, the government has shown unwavering commitment to fighting corruption and blocking leakages in both the civil service and the oil and gas sector; and is exhibiting a strong political will to fight corruption irrespective of who is involved. However, the fight against corruption must not be devoid of strict adherence to the rule of law. In the last few months, several of the people accused of corruption have been detained against the law, which stipulates that all accused must be brought before the court 48 hours after arrest. Some people granted bail have since been re-arrested and detained. The fight against corruption must be pursued in line with due process and never in abuse of the law. It is also imperative for the government to acknowledge that the fight against corruption should not be confused as sufficient to address all governance challenges in the country. Essentially, fighting corruption is and should remain one of the policy priorities of government but not the only overarching intervention necessary to strengthen governance, especially in a country like Nigeria where democracy is still transitioning. The campaign against corrupt practices should simultaneously exist with interventions such as social provisions that could discourage people from engaging in corrupt practices, and to a large extent, galvanize support for the campaign. This may also help institutionalise the anti-corruption process in the country. Allegations of perceived bias continue to be made against the PMB administration in several parts of the country. For instance, the South Eastern part of the country continues to claim marginalization on the 40

42 part of the government. This they have justified this claim on several occasions by citing the composition of the government. They have also supported this point by making direct reference to the statement of the President, during his official visit to the US, that only people who voted for him will be rewarded. This perceived bias is being used by the Biafra secessionist movements to win converts. The claim of marginalization by parts of the federation is not a new phenomenon. However, it is imperative that the PMB administration embarks on national healing to address the perceived wrongs witnessed in the previous years. This could be a truth and reconciliation commission in a similar model to Obasanjo's Human Rights Violations Investigation popularly referred to as the Oputa Panel. As much as the government has tried to redirect its focus in the fight against Boko Haram to address remote and immediate causes of the insurgency, it has largely adopted an enemy-centric, military approach in the campaign. An enemy-centric approach ensures that the causes of violent extremism are kept alive, rather than addressing the socioeconomic and development issues underlying such extremism. For instance, the North Eastern part of the country is reputed to have the lowest human development indices in Nigeria. Thus, the government needs to streamline its economic, social, political and security reform agenda in order to enhance holistic measures to address the divergent causes of the insurgency. The insurgency is also a great cause for concern due to the number of deaths resulting from asymmetric attacks launched by the insurgents. In the last seven months, an estimated1,949 lives have been lost, and even after it was claimed the war was 'technically' won, the bomb blasts that rocked Adamawa and Borno resulted inthe deaths of over 80 41

43 people. We recognize the effectiveness of the ongoing campaign, as the insurgents have been largely decimated in terms of their inability to control communities and villages in the North East and deploy deadly facilities against soldiers. Nonetheless, the continuous explosion of bombs in public places triggers worries regarding the intelligence gathering capacity of the military and the effectiveness of inter-agency collaboration in the fight against the insurgency. The engagement of the Multi National Joint Task force (MNJTF) in the fight against insurgency also gives room for concern. The MNJTF has a right of hot pursuit and is empowered to operate without frontiers, with the liberty to enter into Nigeria and across the borders of Chad, Niger Republic, and Cameroon, which are plagued by the Boko Haram 53 insurgency. However, there are reports of the MNJTF entering the country and killing citizens. For instance, in Kirawa-Jimni, in Gwoza local government areas of Borno State, there are reports that about 70 residents of the village were killed by Cameroonian troops who were 54 chasing after Boko Haram insurgents. There has been no official response from the Nigerian government affirming or rebutting this incident. This gives room for concern, and the Nigerian government must ensure that in any fight against insurgency, the rights of civilians in armed conflicts must be upheld. The security approach to curbing violent conflicts remains a source of concern to Nigerians. In the past few months, there have been disproportionate responses to violent conflict by security agencies. Besides the alleged extra-judicial killings of the Shia and IPOB members, there are also allegations of the army indiscriminately burning down settlements in the North East. The men of the State Security Services (SSS) have also been accused of carrying out 53 Slow Take Off of Multinational Force: Boko Haram Regroups in Border Villages 54 Boko Haram: Cameroonian soldiers 'kill' 70 Nigerians in Borno village 42

44 commando attacks in several parts of the country, for instance the raid of the AkwaIbom government house. While it may be argued that all acts carried out are in line with the duties of these agencies, it must at no time deviate from the rule of engagement or law. The government has recently expressed its commitment to hire 500,000 teachers to improve the quality of education and address unemployment in the country. While this is a laudable venture, how the government will achieve this remains in contention. For instance the government, as of November 2015, is said to have a total number of 55 89,511 civil servants in employment. Questions remain as to how this astronomical figure will be included in the civil service, how the 500,000persons will be paid considering the economic crunch being faced by the country, and most importantly how all these positions will be filled with qualified persons. The inclusion of women in the PMB administration is generating concern in several quarters. On the campaign trail, the President pledged to implement the National Gender Policy, which makes 56 provision for women to occupy 35% of appointive positions. However, the appointments made so far reveal few women in this adminstration 57 compared to previous adminstrations. There are only six women out of the 36 ministers apointed by the government. This constiutes aproximately 17% of the Cabinet. In the same vein, women constitute approximately 26% of the 18 newly appointed Permanent Secretaries in the Federal Civil Service, plus the Head of Service. The government has also not demonstrated any noticeable effort to integrate youth into the governance process. To promote inclusive goverment and redress the age old generational marginalisation of 43

45 women, youth and other vulnerable members of society, it is imperative that this adminstration work on including women, youth, persons with disabilities and other vulnerable groups in the governance process. While, at this time, we are reading about the policy thrust of some ministries in national newspapers, it is of great concern that most of these are skeletal, failing to provide comprehensive information about the plans of the government to address specific sectorial challenges. Indeed, most of these are lofty ideas as they tend towards how the country's economy can be diversified, improve internally-generated revenue and create jobs. However, having this in a codified format will not only be helpful to promoting all-inclusive growth and development but it will also facilitate effective monitoring and evaluation of interventions for development purposes. 44

46 7Policy Recommendations President Muhammdu Buhari's and his government should: 1. Endeavour to unveil the policy thrust of his administration, particularly for the economic and security sectors. 2. Articulate a "Marshal Plan" to address security challenges posed by terrorism, ethno-religious violence, rural banditry, and kidnapping, amongst others, in the various regions of the Nigerian economy. The plan should balance military and nonmilitary strategies and tools. 3. Address structural and systemic failures of social amenities, infrastructures, institutions and immediately put in place life changing programs that will holistically address extreme poverty, social inequality, injustice, and illiteracy. 4. Prevent the proliferation of violent ideologies and identities, push and pull factors of violent extremism, among others. 5. Improve intelligence gathering and aid to affected victims of terrorism. 6. Priorities transparency in the management and handling of suspects through the regular publication of the names of suspects in military detention. 7. Improve the health, safety, feeding and living conditions of IDPs. 8. Ensure proper psychological, developmental, security and livelihood support to IDPs before reintegrating them back to their communities. 55 IkennaAssomba - 89, 511 civil servants in FG's employ by Nov DG BPSR Friday, VanguardDecember 11, On March 19,2015, the President pledged thisat the town hall meeting with women professionals at the Harbor Point Hall, Lagos. 57 Aisha Alhassan, Kemi Adeosun, Amina Mohammed, Khadija Bukar Ibrahim, Zainab Ahmed and Aisha Abubakar 45 01

47 9. Establish a national healing program to redress concerns about marginalization or other grievances against the state. 10. Prioritise security sector reform. 11. The President should direct his efforts towards implementing policies and programmes for employment generation. 12. Efforts should be put in place to revive the education sector, particularly in the areas of capacity building for unemployed youth through vocational training. 13. Immediately commence the process of amending relevant laws that would guarantee independence of anti-graft agencies in the areas of prosecution, finance and tenure of office. Efforts should also be directed to the enactment of the Whistle Blower Act. 14. The President should demonstrate high level of commitment towards the implementation of the UNEP report for the clean-up of Niger Delta. 15. Make land accessible to farmers by revisiting the 1979 Land Use Act for necessry amendment and implementation of land reform. 46

48 8About Buharimeter uharimeter ( is a monitoring tool that enables Nigerians and pan-nigerians around the globe to keep Btabs on the implementation of the campaign promises of President Muhammad Buhari (PMB) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). It is an independent, unbiased and non-political monitoring platform that provides alternative opinion about government policy, where necessary. By analysing data gathered through tracking of media reports, policy analysis, opinion polling, and rating government performance, we hope to empower Nigerians to take an active role in making the APC-led government live up to its campaign promises. Our progress rating is not based on mere policy pronouncement by the government, but actionable steps taken to achieve a promise. In carrying out this task, CDD collated data on the campaign promises of PMB through the daily monitoring of print and electronic media. An expert analysis of sectorial issues were undertaken; and citizens' views, as expressed in the media, were systematically rated, before making judgment calls on the status of the implementation of specific promises. Weekly in-house reports were also prepared for the purpose of trend monitoring. These reports are the building blocks for the monthly reports, for which a database was created. We seek to strengthen our sources of information for the assessment of government's performance through creating a space on Buharimeter's website that allows citizens and other stakeholders to regularly inform us about government actions (I- Witness). Buharimeter is a project of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) with support from the Open Society Initiative for West Africa (OSIWA) and Department for International Development (DFID). Disclaimer: Views expressed in this report are those of CDD but not OSIWA and DFID. 47

49 Project by: Supported by: Infographics & Layout by: