Results from the Afrobarometer Round 5 Survey in NIGERIA

Transcription

1 Results from the Afrobarometer Round 5 Survey in NIGERIA 1 of 4 Public Release events 22nd/May/13, Lagos, Nigeria 1

2 What is the Afrobarometer? The Afrobarometer (AB) is a comparative series of public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy, leadership, identity, and other related issues. The AB is an independent, non-partisan, African-based network of researchers. The first round of surveys took place in in 12 countries. The Network is now conducting Round 5 surveys in up to 35 countries during Purpose: To measure popular perspectives on the social, political, and economic environments in each country where it is implemented and across Africa. Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making processes by providing high-quality public opinion data to policy-makers, policy advocates and civil society organizations, academics, media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans. 2

3 Country Coverage: Round 1, , 12 countries Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda Round 2, 2-3, 16 countries Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal Round 3, 5-6, 18 countries Benin, Madagascar Round 4, 8-9, countries Burkina Faso, Liberia Round 5, 11-13, up to 35 countries Algeria, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d Ivoire, Egypt, Guinea, Mauritius, Morocco, Niger, Togo, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan 3

4 Country Coverage Round 5:

5 Who is the Afrobarometer? A Pan-African Network of survey researchers and analysts. In each country there is a National Partner responsible for survey implementation. In Nigeria, the National Partner is CLEEN Foundation and Practical Sampling International (PSI) as National Investigator. Three Core Partners provide technical assistance and Network management: o o o Center for Democratic Development (CDD), Ghana Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, Kenya Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP), Benin Two Support Units for capacity building and quality assurance o o Michigan State University University of Cape Town Round 5 Core Funders include o o o o DFID SIDA USAID Mo Ibrahim Foundation 5

6 Survey Methodology Nationally representative sample of adult citizens o all respondents are randomly selected o every adult citizen has an equal and known chance of being selected Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent s choice Standard survey instrument across all countries for comparability The survey interviewed 2, adult Nigerians; A sample of this size yields results with a margin of error of +/- 2% at a 95% confidence level. Field work for Round 5 in Nigeria was conducted between 29 th October and th November in 12. Afrobarometer s work in Nigeria is coordinated by The CLEEN Foundation and field work was carried out by Practical Sampling International PSI. 6

7 Survey Demographics Mean Age Gender Weighted Un-weighted Male % % Female % % Location Urban 44% 44% Rural 56% 56% Education None 16% 16% Primary 15% 15% Secondary 46% 46% Higher 21% 21% 7

8 Q97. Education of respondent Valid No formal schooling Inf ormal schooling only Some primary schooling Primary school completed Some secondary school/high school Secondary school completed/high school Post-secondary qualif ications, not univ ersity Some univ ersity Univ ersity completed Post-graduate Don't know Total Cumulativ e Frequency Percent Valid Percent Percent

9 States Weighted Un-weighted Region / Province Abia 2% 2% Adamawa 2% 2% Akwa-Ibom 3% 3% Anambra 3% 3% Bauchi 3% 3% Bayelsa 1% 2% Benue 3% 3% Borno 3% 3% Cross-River 2% 2% Delta 3% 4% Ebonyi 2% 2% Edo 2% 2% Ekiti 2% 2% Enugu 3% 2% FCT 2% 2% Gombe 1% 1% 9

10 Weighted Un-weighted Imo 3% 3% Jigawa 3% 3% Kaduna 4% 4% Kano 6% 6% Katsina 4% 4% Kebbi 2% 2% Kogi 2% 2% Kwara 2% 2% Lagos 8% 8% Nasarawa 1% 1% Niger 3% 3% Ogun 3% 3% Ondo 3% 3% Osun 3% 3% Oyo 4% 4% Plateau 2% 2% Rivers 4% 5% Sokoto 2% 2% Taraba 1% 1% Yobe 2% 1% Zamfara 2% 2%

11 Elections, Politics, and Corruption in Nigeria 11

12 Key Findings of R5 Nigeria Election: Majority of Nigerians believe the quality of April 11 elections is better compared with the 7 elections. Rotation of Presidency: Nigerians have a strong support for the rotation of Presidency across regions. Creation of more states: Majority admitted that Creation of more States will improve development of Nigeria, and creation of more Local government areas will improve development of local communities. Corruption: Nigerians say Government interference the most important challenge for the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission and Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Fuel Subsidy: Wide majority say Government Officials benefits most from fuel subsidies. 12

13 1. Perception of the quality of national elections

14 Nigerians Interest in public affairs 7 63% 36% 1% Interested Not interested Don't know 14

15 When you get together with your friends or family, would you say you discuss political matters? 56% 23% 21% Occasionally Frequently Never Don't know % 15

16 2% 2% 4% 12% 12% % 17% 15% 16% 31% % 33% 38% 38% % Nigeria's 11 General Election: What the public say Measuring the Freeness and fairness of the last elections in Nigeria Not free and fair Free and fair, with major problems Free and fair, but with minor problems Completely free and fair Don't know Gubernatorial election National election State's Assembly election 16

17 Compared with the 7 national elections, would you say that the quality of the April 11 national elections in Nigeria was better, the same, or worse? 7 65% 18% 15% Better Same Worse Don t know/ Do not understand question 2% 17

18 Nigerians opinions on the Performance of Independent National Electoral Commission INEC in conducting April 11 elections % 27% Good Poor Don t know/not aware of other elections 1% 18

19 Voters admission of elections incentives offered to them in return of votes 8 74% 7 57% 15% 15% 13% 8% 8% 7% 3% 1% Never Once or twice A few times Often Don t know Elections incentives offered to you Elections incentives offered to neighbours 19

20 Independent National Electoral Commission INEC in Performing Their Duties % 31% The INEC is a neutral body INEC makes decisions that favour particular interest 1% 2% Neither Don t know

21 2. Rotation of Presidency 21

22 Findings Rotation of Presidency: Nigerians have a strong support for the rotation of Presidency across regions. Creation of New more states: Majority of Nigerians believe Creation of more States will improve development of Nigeria. Creation of New more Local Government Area: The survey revealed what the public think about creation of More Local Government Areas in Nigeria Government performance: Majority of Nigerians say the government in performing badly in the maintaining public safety and security and in Managing the conflict between Moslems and Christians. Corruption: Majority of Nigerians view Government interference Most important challenge facing anti-corruption agencies in the country. 22

23 Rotation of Presidency The Nigerian Presidency should rotate across regions vs. anyone should be able to contest regardless of region [% Agree/Agree very strongly] 7 % % The Nigerian Presidency should rotate across region Anyone should be able to contest regardless of region

24 What Residents in Urban and Rural say The Nigerian Presidency should rotate across regions vs. anyone should be able to contest regardless of region 7 58% % 41% % 1% % The Nigerian Presidency should rotate across regions Anyone should be able to contest regardless of region Neither Urban Rural 24

25 Gombe Yobe Nasarawa Niger Rivers Kaduna Plateau Enugu Katsina Bayelsa Kebbi Adamawa Anambra Bauchi Ogun Akwa-Ibom Ebonyi Kano FCT-Abuja Lagos Kogi Ekiti Imo Cross-River Sokoto Taraba Borno Jigawa Oyo Delta Osun Zamfara Ondo Abia Edo Kwara Benue The Nigerian Presidency should rotate across regions; What residents in Nigeria states say 9 8 % Agree/ strongly agree 7 % 25

26 Kwara Benue Edo Abia Ondo Zamfara Osun Delta Oyo Taraba Borno Cross-River Jigawa Sokoto Ekiti Imo Kogi Lagos FCT-Abuja Ebonyi Kano Ogun Bauchi Adamawa Bayelsa Kebbi Akwa-Ibom Katsina Anambra Enugu Plateau Kaduna Rivers Niger Nasarawa Yobe Gombe % Anyone should be able to contest for Nigeria presidency regardless of region. % Agree/strongly agree 26

27 Creation of new more States in Nigeria Majority Nigerians say Creation of more States will improve development in the country [% Agree/Agree very strongly] 7 63% 36% Creation of more States will improve development of Nigeria will have no impact on development 1% 1% Agree With Neither Don t know 27

28 What the Rural and Urban residents say about creation of new more states in Nigeria 7 64% 62% 35% 37% 2% 2% Creation of more States will improve development of Nigeria will have no impact on development Neither Urban Rural 28

29 Creation of more Local Government Areas The survey revealed what the public think about creation of More Local Government Areas in Nigeria 7 62% 37% More LGAs will improve development of local communitie will have no impact 1% Don t know 29

30 What the Rural and Urban residents say about creation of new more Local Government Areas in Nigeria 7 64% 62% 36% 38% Creation of more LGA's will improve development of Nigeria Urban will have no impact on development Rural

31 Government Performance Performance of current government in handling matters [% Very badly/fairly badly, Well/Fairly well] 7 63% 37% Performance in maintaining public safety and security % % Performance in managing conflict between Moslems and Christians Badly Well 31

32 3. Corruption in Nigeria 32

33 President and Officials in his cabinet Only 2% of Nigerians say President and Officials in his cabinet are not corrupt 54% 42% Some of them Most of them None Don't Know 2% 1% 33

34 Only 2% of Nigerians say State governors and officials in their office are not corrupt 51% 47% Most of them/all of them 2% % Some of them None Don't Know/Haven't heard enough 34

35 9 Public Perceptions of Police involvement in Corruption in Nigeria 8 78% 7 Most of them/all of them % 2% 1% Some of them None Don't Know/Haven't heard enough 35

36 Public Perceptions of involvement in Corruption by Members of Parliament and Government Officials 7 56% 59% 41% 39% None Some of them Most of them Don't Know Members of Parliament Government officials 36

37 Corruptions Performance of anti corruption bodies in Nigeria % 45% 44% 43% % 8% Approve Disapprove DK / Haven t heard enough Performance: Officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission Performance: Officials of the Economic and Financial Crime Commission 37

38 Corruptions Most important challenge facing anti-corruption bodies in Nigeria None of these 1% % Inadequate funds Don t Know Judicial corruption Corruption by personnel of ICPC % 9% 11% 12% 14% 14% 28% 29% Government interference 37% 35% Most important challenge for the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Most important challenge for the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission 38

39 Approval for the Merger of EFCC and ICPC 48% 37% 15% Approve Disapprove Don t Know 39

40 4. Fuel subsidy in Nigeria

41 Fuel Subsidy removal in Nigeria Key Findings Majority of Nigerians believe the government officials benefit more from the fuel subsidies 62% of Nigerians say government should maintain the fuel subsidy 41

42 Who benefits from fuel subsidies in Nigeria? 52% 22% % 3% 3% Government Officials Wealthy Nigerians Fuel Import companies Ordinary Nigerians Don t know 42

43 The government should maintain a fuel subsidy vs. The fuel subsidy is too expensive [% Agree/strongly Agree very] 7 62% 37% The gvt. should maintain a fuel subsidy The fuel subsidy is too expensive 1% Neither 43

44 Small or medium scale business start-ups in Nigeria 7% 7 29% 1% Difficult Easy Don't know 44

45 Conclusions The Nigeria public have the believe that creation of more States and Local government Areas will improve development of the country % of Nigerians approve the rotation of Presidency across regions against % who say anyone should contest for the office of the presidency regardless of the region Majority of Nigerians say the quality of the 11 general election in Nigeria is better than 7 national elections, Wide majority of Nigerians say Government Officials benefits most from fuel subsidies. Most Nigerian residents say it is difficult to start-up a Small or medium scale business in Nigeria 45

46 AREAS OF FOCUS IN THE NEXT EVENT Economic condition in Nigeria Security and perception of safety in Nigeria 46

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