Imagining the future of Africa 2025: Global Development Network and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

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1 Introduction Africa. What are our aspirations? What does the future hold for us? Arguably the most significant continent with regards to how the future will be, Africa has grown in leaps and bounds since the colonial era. While this is deservedly laudable, different regions have experienced mixed growth in terms of social, economic and political development. Nigerians were recently voted to be amongst some of the most optimistic people in the world. This not only represents the belief that we shall rise to a better and more prosperous tomorrow, but also shows the potential that the future holds. While it is obvious that the continent will have experienced a paradigm shift by the year 2025, the outcome, whether positive or negative, will highly border on the mechanisms adopted by individual states, regional bodies and the entire continent in general. My essay paper will give an analytical insight on the current situation, economic, environmental, social and political challenges while being keen to provide positive proposals for the same. While I would be wrong to under-estimate the enormous challenges the continent still faces, the proposals and recommendations are reasonable and realistically attainable by the continent. My essay is also influenced by the belief that Africa can no longer afford the travesty of being a bystander as choices are being formulated concerning its future whether in dealing with climate change, world trade or global finance. Social and Political challenges I believe that if there is one area which will determine the position of Africa by 2025, it is the quality of its social governance and political leadership. The African continent boasts of more than five hundred tribes spread across the 54 countries. This represents the multicultural dimensions within the continent. Additionally, a variety of religions are practiced by different individuals. While this represents the level of diversity being enjoyed, it has also, unfortunately, been the undoing of the continent in terms of social and political growth. Whereas it can be argued that the problems being experienced in the continent are structural, an unbiased analysis points to it being as a result of either tribal or religious differences. The youngest nation, South Sudan, is still grappling with the effects of a war between the two major tribes in the country, the Dinka and the Nuer. The Central African Republic meanwhile has experienced one of the worst humanitarian crises in the recent past with fighting amongst

2 Muslim and Christian rebels. Further north, Libya and Egypt are in the middle of recovering from political wars in a bid to end years of political oppression. The political unpredictability has led to a massive loss of lives, weakening of the economies and the loss of the gains that had been accomplished prior to the situations. Situations such as those where the incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo refused to concede defeat in a democratically conducted and independently monitored election should not be tolerated if Africa is to grow politically. This can be addressed by putting policies where such scenarios are mitigated, or avoided altogether. What is encouraging is the fact that similar previous situations have shown that the continent always rises from such problems in a positive manner. A case in point is Rwanda. Having suffered the 1994 Rwandese Genocide, the country has continued to experience positive growth since that time. Further, the Sierra Leone civil conflict proved to be a catapult for the forward movement of the nation. The constant factor being elections, the continent should thereby strive to see to it that they are backed by institutions in which the public have faith. This should further be strengthened by laws that uphold the rights of all individuals and create an inclusive society as opposed to defending ethnicity or special interest groups. In light of the above, my proposals are to the extent of establishing political structures that guarantee the stability of the individual nations. In addition, an accountability mechanism under which every person or agency is accountable to the public for all their actions must be implemented. We must rise above our tribal and religious differences and put in concerted efforts to ensure that we attain leadership that is devoid of any self-interest but is instead focused on achieving individual, national as well as regional growth. Such growth can be attained if we embrace the concept of respect for human rights and the rule of law. This should further be promoted by: 1. Creating awareness on the impacts of good governance and leadership in a bid to see the election of leaders who uphold the rule of law and act as conveyor belts in perpetuating democracy through transparent, effective and accountable leadership. 2. Instilling a culture of non-discrimination of any form, especially tribal or religious. Every action undertaken should be done so with a progressive mindset.

3 3. Recognize the key role of both genders and especially women in progressive and inclusive leadership. There should be a match between the aspirations of the people and the caliber of integrity of the people in leadership positions. 4. Initiating policies which pay keen attention to social development. This should be through an increase in the number of multi-party elections, greater adherence to democratic concepts and promoting the growth of civil society. 5. African countries should strive to protect the integrity of general elections as well as addressing the causes of conflict which can be done through proper institutional reform. There should be as a matter of urgency measures to address election related violence. Environmental challenges That the continent attracts the most number of tourists as compared to the rest of the continents underlines the significance of the environment. From the unique species on the island of Madagascar to the one of a kind Chengoni Rock-Art Area in Malawi, Africa holds an unassailable advantage over and above the rest of the continents. Worryingly, a combined catalogue of mistakes threatens to eradicate this diversity. Of key concern is the illegal and unregulated logging that threatens to wipe out the indigenous rain forest across the central belt. Coupled with the above is the challenge of poaching that has seen the endangering of more species in one year than the previous decade combined. The situation is further compounded by alarming pollution levels. The increase in the number of vehicles within our cities together with gas emissions from the industries not only poses health concerns but also puts at great risk the spiraling of the Sahara Desert due to the resultant fail in rains. While the discovery of oil and gas in a number of countries including Kenya and Uganda provides employment opportunities, it is also a threat to the marine environment as highlighted by the devastating oil pollution in the Delta region of West Africa for the last couple of decades. Statistics indicate that Nigeria s Niger Delta is one of the most polluted places on the planet with more than 6,800 recorded oil spills. Strong and realistic policy instruments need to be adopted to positively harness the continents undoubted natural resource potential for longer and sustained inclusive growth. While different

4 countries in the region are endowed with different natural resources, concerted deliberations to link the different economies will go down a long way in ensuring that there is a similarity in the levels of growth attained by the different regions. The harnessing of natural resources for structural transformation is premised primarily on four main pillars. These are: 1. Maximizing on the revenues gained from natural resources and investing them strategically for the promotion of better structures. 2. Africa being highly dependent on the agricultural sector, increasing the agricultural productivity and creating links between the natural resource sector and the economy in general. 3. Putting in place specially tailored conditions which will ensure the thriving of the natural resource sector. This is inclusive of laws which monitor the exploration in this field as well as regulations in relation to the procedure for the awarding of tenders to the exploring companies. 4. The creation of general framework geared towards structural transformation. This should include the education sector and investment in infrastructure to access relatively larger markets. With the benefit of hindsight in a number of African countries, I believe that the continent will profit positively as a result of taking care of the environment. Economic challenges The major backbones of African economies lie in the fields of agricultural commodities, timber, minerals, metals, hydro carbons and natural resources. The key question therefore is how Africa will achieve growth which provides better productive jobs, given its comparative advantage in terms of land area to population ratio. While focus is being put to ensure the employment of youths in African economies, despite the slow and steady growth, the continent s ability to offer economic opportunities does not match its demographic dynamism. 1 The key to a prosperous 1 African Economic Outlook

5 African economy lies in the structural transformation to guarantee processes which have a higher productivity ratio. This can be achieved by the shift from the traditionally small sectors to newer sectors. It is sad knowing that currently, Africa is the only continent which does not grow enough food to feed its entire population. The pace at which poverty is being reduced does not reflect the relatively fast economic growth being recorded by many countries in the region. In contrast, what is being reflected is the widening gap between the rich and the poor population. In comparison to the emerging economies such as Brazil and China, Africa still lags behind in the reduction of poverty levels. While evidence in Africa is that there are enacted laws aimed at ensuring economic growth, the pertinent concern is that such legislations have not been implemented. In order to create opportunities for sustainable provision of employment opportunities and the creation of wealth, I am opined that the African countries should divert their focus to gaining the maximum output from the natural resources available and at the same time focusing on the sectors that offer more returns. Given that a majority of the jobs are more labor intensive as opposed to being mental intensive, conditions should be defined for diversification and upgrading. The forum organized by the OECD Development Centre in which ministers and high level representatives of the private sector, academia and civil society groups gather to discuss the performance of African economies and the challenges that are being faced is an appropriate forum. A move from the informal economies to the formal economies should be initiated owing to their higher sustainability and inclusive levels. According to the African Development Bank, a total of six African countries are on track to attain growth above seven percent, fifteen countries above five percent and twenty seven countries above three percent. This momentum can be maintained if the stakeholders within the continent strive to tackle the remaining obstacles. The economic transformation that is currently taking place should be managed so that it can be sustainable both in the short and long term periods. My proposals to this include: 1. More investment should also be directed to energy and infrastructure and especially the transport and communication sector.

6 2. Strengthening regional integration through the different regional bodies such as the East African Community (EAC), Southern African Development Countries (SADC) and the Economic Community for West African States (ECOWAS). This is integral in increasing the trade within the continent which is placed at merely 10% by the African Development Bank as compared to 67% within the European Union. 3. Restructuring the educational systems to ensure that the graduates produced are relevant and competent to be absorbed by the job market. This should also be in line with the creation of job opportunities for the semi-skilled labor force. 4. Employ policy makers who shall oversee the better management of economies better owing to their skills and expertise. 5. Adopt the use of eco-friendly waste disposal techniques which shall ensure that the environment will continue being sustained. This is in addition to adopting relevant technology in agricultural production. Summary Form the above analysis; it is worth noting that whereas there are challenges facing the region, a proper and well defined structure laid in place will have a totally different Africa by the year Given the above recommendations, my prospected position of Africa by 2025 includes: 1. The continent will have more than half of the fastest growing economies in the world. 2. The number of people living below the poverty line and in hunger will reduce significantly. 3. There will be a diversity of sectors from which job creation will depend on in addition to the traditional agricultural sector. These include the telecoms industry, financial sector, construction and infrastructure. 4. More political stability with the adoption of good public policies, a higher degree of both local and foreign investment as well as a n economy characterized by a fast growing labor force and rapid urbanization.

7 5. An increase in the financial flows from remittances by the African population in the diaspora. This is also in terms of transferred skills, innovation and entrepreneurship to the country. Conclusion Growing up, I always dreamt of how African countries would forge their future together. In my pristine naivety, I envisaged a United States of Africa. But who could blame me? It was a dream that I grew up and saw quashed. With every passing year, most of the African states failed to contain the consequences of random border splits that split ethnic groups and fuelled tensions. I bore first-hand the greed of leaders who wanted to centralize political and economic powers within their close circles and my hopes were further quashed. 22 years later and here I am equipping myself to be a lawyer, and the dream is certainly back. While some of it might not be practical, a new sense of optimism and belief is sprout in me. My belief is not that of a broken and dispirited Africa that is constantly painted by the global media. Neither is it that stereotyped to be comprised of hunger stricken residents torn in war and disease. It is a dream of a success story. It is a dream of being African in every sense. Let me be part of that dream. What Africa needs is to build on the progress that it has achieved so far. A brighter and better Africa is possible. However, this requires a comprehensive strategy built on security, development, rule of law and human rights. It is our continent. We must have the confidence to change it for the better.

8 References: Aquiline Tarimo, P. M. (2009). Ethnicity, Conflict and the future of African States. Durban: paulines Publications Africa. Clarke, D. (2012). Africa"s Future: Darkness to Destiny: How the past is shaping Africa's economic evolution. London: Profile Books Limited. Magesa, L. (2010). African Religion in the Dialogue Debate: from intolerance to coexistance. London: Transaction Publishers. Piot, C. (2010). Nostalgia For the Future: West Africa after the Cold war. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.