Upheaval in Albany. Abstract

Transcription

1 Abstract Albany had always been ground zero for partisan politics at the state level: deeply divided along party lines and seemingly resistant to change. Then came last November s electoral Blue Wave, and, with it, happy predictions of a new Albany full of consensus. But a bruising budget battle laid bare the divisions among various factions of the state s Democratic Party. It is becoming increasingly clear that the newly emboldened left wing and the more moderate and conservative members of the Democratic Party in Albany are on a collision course over how exactly to address key policy issues that could upend entire industries. The rifts are stark, creating a degree of volatility that lobbyists, legislative staff, and lawmakers say may be even more difficult to anticipate and manage than the forces that shaped Albany during its bad old days of divided government. But there are also significant opportunities with so many young members holding office for the first time, as they are learning on the job and still forming their political identities. Marathon Strategies can help you navigate Albany s rapidly changing landscape. We are an independent, full-service communications and research firm that helps corporations, trade groups, and nonprofits achieve their public affairs goals. Born from the trenches of some of the most high-profile political races over the past two decades, Marathon applies the fast-paced, results-driven execution of campaigns to the challenges of a wide range of brands, issues, and causes. We embed ourselves in our clients organizations and we challenge the status quo, using our experience, intellect, data, and analytics to shape opinions and deliver results. The Marathon team comprises experienced campaign operatives, crisis professionals, researchers, digital and data experts, government aides, reporters, lawyers, and television producers who bring a unique perspective to every assignment. As a result, we are trusted advisers to a diverse portfolio of clients, all united by a need for independent, candid, and thoughtful counsel. Marathon can provide similar in-depth analyses to corporations, trade associations, and other organizations that will inform their efforts to achieve their legislative and regulatory public affairs goals. We also devise and implement integrated public affairs and communications campaigns. To learn more about how we can help you achieve your public affairs and communications goals, please get in touch with Phil Singer via info@ or call (212)

2 Introduction For decades, the balance of power in Albany was nearly etched in stone: Republicans controlled the state Senate, Democrats held the majority in the Assembly, and either party could hold onto the governor s seat for years at a time. Gridlock was par for the course, and conventional wisdom said that the New York State Capitol would never change. In 2018, New York voters delivered a shock to the entrenched status quo. New York Democrats retained their sizeable majority in the Assembly, held onto the governorship with 59 percent of the vote, and seized control of the Senate, the last bastion of Republican power in the Capitol. The gridlock, it seemed, would finally be broken. Democrats in both chambers spent the first few weeks of the legislative session passing a flurry of low-hanging progressive legislation Republicans had once blocked, including a package of gun-safety laws and an abortion-rights bill initially introduced roughly 50 years ago. But the mood changed when Amazon s deal to build a corporate campus in Queens collapsed. Governor Cuomo blasted Democrats in the Senate, many of them progressives, for their staunch opposition to the tax incentives offered in the deal, saying they had done tremendous damage and that they should be held accountable. He went so far as to say that Democrats who opposed the Amazon deal violated the law and engaged in a form of government corruption. Democrats fired back, accusing the governor of trying to divide the party. A contentious budget battle followed, exposing profound policy and ideological differences. The budget contained some notable progressive priorities, including a ban on plastic bags and an extension of online voter registration, but it left the rank and file in both houses extremely unhappy with the outcome: 17 Democrats in the Assembly voted against the budget and several others, including Assemblywoman Catalina Cruz, spoke out against it but voted in favor because it was the right thing to do. Even Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie conceded, I ll be the first to say this is not a great budget. One lobbyist said, the mood is still toxic in Albany. The final $175.5 billion bill included: a permanent 2-percent property-tax cap, criminal justice reforms, new taxes to fund the MTA, and other progressive priorities such as a ban on single-use plastic bags. However, many highly consequential policy debates lie ahead over such issues as renewable energy, congestion pricing details, gaming and sports betting, public campaign financing specifics, and affordable housing. Other big-ticket policy items looming over the legislature are legalizing marijuana and expanding access to healthcare. Policy and ideological differences are not the only reasons for the widening rifts among Democrats. In November, voters elected a sizeable class of new lawmakers who are also openly challenging the top-down power structure of the political parties in Albany. In the Senate, for instance, 15 new Democrats some of whom had never held public office hold seats, and 28 legislators in that chamber are under the age of 35. 2

3 Many of these members have been emboldened by the new Senate majority leader, Andrea Stewart-Cousins, who has defied convention with her pledge to do away with the autocratic style that characterizes Albany. She has signaled that she will grant more power to committee chairs and more authority to members to shape the legislative agenda. That is sure to create friction, though, with new members determined to assert themselves against the take-it-slow instincts of the party s more moderate and conservative members. The ideological rifts among Albany Democrats as well as the dramatic differences in their styles and levels of experience create new opportunities for industry stakeholders looking to influence the legislative process. Despite lofty campaign platitudes, many of the young first-time lawmakers have yet to take positions on specific legislation or issues, which means they can potentially be influenced by industries and companies that quickly work to cultivate relationships with lawmakers and their key aides and craft narratives designed to appeal to them. Doing so successfully will require a fresh strategic and tactical approach, particularly since many policy debates now take place in real time on social media. In the same way that the electoral campaigns defied conventional wisdom, the legislative process could break many of the old rules. Industry stakeholders who get out in front of these rapidly shifting dynamics stand to benefit, while those who take a wait-and-see approach risk being caught flat-footed. Below are several issues that hang in the balance, and an overview of how each is likely to play out. The final section of this document briefly lays out what a robust and agile communications campaign should look like for stakeholders who want to tip the scales on these policy debates. Renewable Energy As the Green New Deal reignites discussion in Washington over how to drastically reduce carbon emissions during the next 10 years, a fight is brewing in New York over how to get enough natural gas to communities that need it. Con Edison, New York s primary utility provider, recently imposed a moratorium on natural gas service for new businesses, development projects, and homes in Southern Westchester. The moratorium, which could eventually expand to Brooklyn and Queens, is the result of growing demand for natural gas but limited supply due to insufficient pipeline capacity in the county. Environmental activists have called for Governor Cuomo to kill any new pipeline proposals. Developers say that without new gas infrastructure, construction projects will come to a grinding halt. Exposing the fault lines among Democrats on this issue, labor-backed New Yorkers for Affordable Energy have slammed the blockade on new pipeline development. 3

4 These schisms will loom large over the broader debate on renewable energy. State Senator Todd Kaminsky and State Assemblyman Steve Englebright introduced a measure that would require New York State to generate half of its electricity from renewable energy by 2030 and to eliminate all of its own greenhouse gas emissions by At odds with a proposal put forward by Governor Cuomo that would primarily target New York s public utility sources and invest in renewable-energy projects, the measure is considered by some within the Democratic Party to be unrealistic. Unions worried about heavy-handed regulations destroying good-paying energy jobs have largely remained on the sidelines thus far. The Senate kicked off a series of hearings on climate change in February, but there was no sign of convergence between the conflicting proposals. Senator Kaminsky believes disagreement is promising, saying, The fact that we are all trying to out-green each other either in Congress or here is a really good thing. But this approach could pave the way for a tough legislative fight. Transportation and Congestion Pricing In February, regulators began collecting a $2.50 surcharge on all Manhattan taxi rides below 96th Street. Now, lawmakers representing constituents in New York City are looking for similar revenue streams that might help repair and upgrade the City s ailing bus and subway infrastructure. But their efforts have drawn strong pushback from outer-borough and upstate representatives who don t think their constituents should have to pay for it. Despite these objections, congestion pricing which, Governor Cuomo had said, is an idea whose time has come passed in the 2020 budget. Beginning in 2021, there will be a central business district toll on all vehicles that enter Manhattan south of 60th street. But the details have yet to be determined. Governor Cuomo put together the Fix NYC panel in 2018, which recommended a daily flat fee of $11.52 for cars and $25.34 for trucks. The budget recommends a variable fee depending on traffic patterns, though. The MTA s Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority will make the final decision in the coming months, and a six-person Traffic Mobility Review Board to be nominated by city, state, and suburban officials will provide guidance on how to implement the congestion-pricing system. Many questions remain, and opponents of congestion pricing continue to voice concerns. For example, New Jersey small-business owners and residents are calling the proposed toll unfair. Democratic Assembly member David Weprin took to the floor to rail against the congestion pricing component of the budget and ultimately voted against the budget in protest. With two years before the system goes into effect, there is a lot at stake for businesses that will be impacted by New York s congestion-pricing system. 4

5 Gaming and Sports Betting Modern gambling first came to New York in 1993, when then-governor Mario Cuomo signed a deal with the Oneida Indian Nation to open a casino near Syracuse. In 2013, voters approved a referendum allowing for seven casinos to be built in New York, and Governor Andrew Cuomo signed a law that opened up four of these licenses while keeping the other three closed until Since then, four casinos have opened in Monticello, Schenectady, Tyre, and Binghamton, but they aren t bringing in as much money as expected. Now, some are pushing for the remaining three licenses to open up before 2023, and they are making the case that casinos located in the City as opposed to upstate would be a tax-revenue windfall to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars annually as well as thousands of new jobs. The Business Council of New York sent a letter to Governor Cuomo saying that gaming expansion could bring in up to $1.5 billion. Governor Cuomo said in January that he has no opinion of making any changes at this time, but that s a deflection more than a hard no. If those licenses are made available, MGM and the Genting Group, which operate two racinos (combining live racetrack betting and slot machines) in Yonkers and Queens respectively, say those facilities can be immediately converted to offer the full casino experience. In fact, both MGM and Genting Group are prepared to pay a $100 million exclusivity-loss fee to upstate operators and a combined $1 billion to set up shop in the City. Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, who represents Yonkers, remains on the fence while Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie says that Assembly Democrats are wary of opening the gaming floodgates. Public Campaign Financing Another wrinkle: If New York City casinos do become a reality sooner rather than later, it remains to be seen how the sports-betting issue will play out. The State Gaming Commission recently took the first step toward approving new rules that would allow sports betting at the four upstate casinos. The fate of online sports betting also hangs in the balance. Following several high-profile corruption scandals that ensnared former Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and former Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, there was growing momentum for reforms that would clean up Albany. In fact, since 2000, more than 47 lawmakers have been accused of misconduct, and Governor Cuomo has been criticized by some for being too soft on the issue. In general agreement that something must be done in the budget, Democrats authorized $100 million annually in taxpayer dollars for elections and established a commission that is tasked with determining how to implement an appropriate campaign-finance system. The commission will deliver recommendations in a report by December 1, But there will be a 20-day period for lawmakers to modify those recommendations. Democrats who believe that Albany is plagued by corruption have long talked about campaign-finance reform as a potential remedy. Governor Cuomo s voluntary 6:1 public financing matching plan would impose more stringent contribution limits and free up $350,000 in public funds for every State Assembly candidate and up to $750,000 for State Senate candidates. 5

6 But with some members seeing the proposed campaign-financing system as a threat to their reelection, this debate is not going away. For example, new members in the Senate, many of whom depended on tens of thousands of small donations, are likely to push hard against any pay-to-play loopholes that can be exploited by special interests. Governor Cuomo has also called for a ban on corporate contributions and lowering the limit that triggers lobbying disclosures from $5,000 to $500. Working out the details could get ugly. The soft agreement in the budget came after Senators Alessandra Biaggi and Jessica Ramos and Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou hurled pay-to-play accusations at Governor Cuomo, whose senior adviser responded by calling them idiots. After the budget deal was reached, Senator Gustavo Rivera called the newly created fair election commission bogus, and Assemblyman Charles Barron called it an embarrassment. Depending on where the different Democratic factions end up, businesses could soon face a much more limited ability to contribute to political campaigns. They will be forced to find new, more public ways to influence the debate in Albany. Prevailing Wage and Affordable Housing Many Democrats new to Albany campaigned on reining in developers and landlords, who are likely to face a barrage of legislative activity aimed at making it more difficult for them to operate. Expanding the prevailing-wage mandate, which Governor Cuomo generally supports, could be the first of many changes to come. Queens State Senator Jessica Ramos wants to expand the definition of public works to ensure that private projects backed with any amount of taxpayer dollars are subject to prevailing-wage laws. Proponents say this would put more money in the pockets of workers, but opponents are lining up to warn that the provision would be a death sentence to community development projects because of skyrocketing costs. Both the Real Estate Board of New York and the New York State Association for Affordable Housing say expanding prevailing-wage laws will particularly hurt affordable-housing projects, which would make it difficult for the de Blasio administration to deliver on one of its central promises. Affordable housing is also sure to be a focus in Albany, with rent control set to expire this year. Some progressives could push for an end to vacancy decontrol, an elimination of the vacancy bonus, and expanding the rent-stabilization system beyond the eight counties currently included. All of these proposals could drive a wedge between moderate Democrats and the more radical wing of the party. Legalizing Marijuana With many states having legalized marijuana in recent years and several others moving that way, New York Democrats have long agreed that it is time for the state to bring its laws in line with the national trend. Now, with Republican opposition no longer a major concern, Democrats have a final hurdle: other Democrats. One of the nastiest fights during budget negotiations was over legalizing marijuana, and the fact that the provision was yanked out of the bill shows just how much of an uphill battle it is going to be. 6

7 Governor Cuomo proposed a comprehensive plan to regulate and tax recreational marijuana in his $175 billion January budget. Cuomo s plan dictates that the estimated $300 million in tax revenue generated from legalizing marijuana should go to funding critical fixes for New York City s aging subway and bus systems. But several African American lawmakers threatened to block Cuomo s proposal if tax dollars didn t go to job-training programs and support for entrepreneurs in minority communities. Meanwhile, upstate New Yorkers want their share of the potentially $3 billion industry, calling for the tax windfall to go to major infrastructure projects and statewide economic-development programs. Complicating matters, if marijuana is ultimately legalized without a preemption clause, municipalities around the state could take matters into their own hands and ban it. Several counties have already indicated that they will opt out, which would create a patchwork of marijuana laws in New York and pave the way for messy legal disputes. It remains to be seen if Governor Cuomo s proposal will be taken up again when talks resume, and it s unclear whether legalization could be done before the session ends in June. There s also no obvious path to resolving the deep divisions that exist, especially as each side continues to dig in to gain leverage. Single-Payer Healthcare With single-payer healthcare emerging as a pillar of the Democratic Party s national platform, some New York Democrats are eager to lead the way on implementing far-reaching policy. Assemblyman Richard Gottfried has been unsuccessful at attempts to introduce the New York Health Act essentially Medicare for All for decades. In the last four years, though, he was able to get the bill through the Assembly. But each time, it was DOA in the Senate, where Republicans opposed it. Now, with many of the Democrats who make up the new majority in the Senate having campaigned on the issue, passage of legislation in that chamber is a possibility. And not only is that causing concern among industry groups, it may also put Governor Cuomo in a tough spot politically. Assemblyman Richard Gottfried and Senator Gustavo Rivera reintroduced the New York Health Act in February and said they intend to begin debate on the bill in April. In its current iteration, the bill would create a state trust fund to cover the estimated $139 billion the insurance program would cost in But it is unclear what taxes, if any, will fund the program. In addition, trade groups representing hospitals, doctors, insurers, and employers have come out strongly against the bill, while Governor Cuomo has long been skeptical of a single-payer approach at the state level. 7

8 For his part, Governor Cuomo proposed through his budget to create a commission to identify solutions to expand access to care and bring down costs, but that centrist approach will not satisfy progressives who want to do away with the status quo now. The Senate wants to begin discussions immediately, and that means industry leaders will probably find themselves in the hot seat sooner rather than later. Conclusion Albany is changing at a dizzying pace. What s clear is that one-party rule in the state s Capitol will not bring about two years of cohesion. Rather, the emerging factions among state Democrats will jockey for control of the party s agenda. If there s any doubt that infighting and gamesmanship will take hold, it s useful to look back to the brief two-year period from 2009 to 2010 when Democrats held control of all three branches of state government. That period was a tumultuous time, full of legislative hijinks and warring factions. The stakes could not be higher this time around, with major policy decisions hanging in the balance that could transform entire industries for years to come. From renewable energy and transportation to gaming, affordable housing, marijuana, and healthcare, Democrats have their sights set on big changes. Even with the budget passed, there are also fights brewing over the details of congestion pricing and public campaign financing. But while Medicare for All and Universal Rent Control are effective campaign slogans, the specific policies that end up getting advanced have yet to be determined. Influencing those legislative decisions one way or the other requires a fresh strategic and tactical approach. A robust communications campaign will be vital for stakeholders across a wide range of brands, issues, and causes. Marathon Strategies provides a broad array of services including media relations and strategy, content development, crisis communications, research, and public affairs, as well as paid media, video, and digital services, to shape elite and public opinion on behalf of our clients. We are constantly pushing the boundaries of modern communications. Gone are the old days in Albany when closeddoor discussions and traditional earned-media placements alone could shape a narrative and drive the discussion. Marathon s coordinated and integrated communications programs amplify compelling content through a variety of traditional and digital platforms to ensure that the right messages are reaching the right audiences. For those who have traditionally stayed out of Albany because their interests were dead on arrival, there is an unprecedented opportunity to influence major legislative decisions. And for those who have comfortably navigated the Capitol for years, now is the time to recalibrate. 8

9 About Marathon: Our Services Strategic Communications Public Affairs Competitive Insights Field Operations Digital and Social Media Video and Multimedia Content Strategic Communications Marathon is deeply ingrained in the evolving media landscape. We have strong relationships with editors, producers and journalists, many of whom are friends and former colleagues. From developing proactive media outreach strategies to mitigating crises to generating original content, we help advance your story. Comprehensive communications plans that deploy a wide range of tools to secure high-impact placements. Media training prepares novice and seasoned spokespeople to effectively communicate key messages. Crisis management programs with protocols and tools ensure rapid responses that minimize negative impact. Written content such as op-eds, talking points, speeches and other materialssupport core messages. Public Affairs Marathon is uniquely positioned in the public affairs field, leveraging past political campaign and government-sector experience to solve legislative, regulatory or political challenges. We provide clients with integrated public affairs campaign expertise that combines traditional earned media, unparalleled local and state field operations, digital and analytics and research to help clients win on their issues. We have been involved in some of the most high-profile and successful public affairs campaigns. Coalition strategy: We combine our political, government and media experience to design coalition campaign strategies for clients. Coalition management: We bring together diverse groups of interested parties or clients and manage their public affairs campaign planning and execution. Third-party engagement: We maintain relationships with stakeholders and third-party organizations across the country that can be recruited to lend their voices during critical moments of a public affairs campaign. Competitive Insights Marathon combines field and desk research to deliver a comprehensive assessment of any given topic. We identify proof points that are crucial to effectively implementing communications, political or business strategies. Research reports created through exhaustive reviews of public records provide critical insights. Dashboards track legislation and broad policy trends to provide thorough and straightforward analysis. Original research reports, including white papers and economic impact analyses, help push agendas forward. 9

10 Field Operations Given our experience working on campaigns for both sides of the aisle, we have the knowledge to help clients make a difference where it matters most: locally. With reach into every state, Congressional district and media market, we maintain a nationwide network of campaign consultants, public affairs specialists, communications experts and political operatives that help us implement multistate strategic communications, public affairs and grassroots campaigns. Through local relationship mapping and ally identification, we help clients understand who the local influencers are and how to engage them. We develop local campaigns to influence an issue by devising and implementing grasstops and grassroots programs in local markets. Coalition building and recruitment allows us to engage local voices with shared beliefs to ensure coalitions make a difference locally. Digital and Social Media Strategy At Marathon, we believe digital is a critical component to any communications, public affairs and crisis management strategy. We help clients engage and protect their online reputations by using cutting edge-tools, strategic partnerships and creative thinking to drive our digital planning. Targeting is key. We use industry-leading data and analytics to drive our planning on digital and social media. A data-driven approach ensures the right audiences see the right content on the platforms they use to consume media. Content is king. Whether in the form of an op-ed, video, news story, research insight or infographic, we help clients develop a content pipeline to break through the cluttered media landscape. Optimization is critical. We take published and produced content from our pipeline and optimize it to make it compelling for digital promotion and engagement on any platform, on any device. Video and Multimedia Content A high-quality strategy needs to be backed up by world-class execution and focused collateral. Marathon leverages our campaign experience and forward-thinking design principles to develop compelling and visually appealing content for any audience and channel. Original television advertising and web video with persuasive narratives and compelling visuals. Infographics distill complex issues into powerful visuals. Direct mail reaches audiences less connected to digital channels. 10