African Conflict Prevention Programme (ACPP) Pretoria

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1 African Conflict Prevention Programme (ACPP) Pretoria ACPP Daily Briefings Week 4 The ACPP Daily Briefings are held weekday mornings in the ACPP Pretoria s Situation Room and the Briefing Notes are the minutes of this meeting during which each regional expert of the Programme reports on the latest human security developments in his/her region, followed by general discussions around the table. An intern then compiles a summary of the meeting, which is reviewed by the respective researchers, and a senior researcher edits the report and provides quality control before returning it to the intern to prepare it for dispatch to the mailing list to which you have subscribed. ACPP-Pretoria research team Dr Issaka K. Souaré (N. Africa) Dr David Zounmenou (W. Africa) Mr Andrew Atta-Assamoah (E. Africa & the Horn) Ms Dimpho Motsamai (S. Africa) Dr Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa (S. Africa) Ms Refiloe Joala (Intern) Ms Naomi Kok (Intern) Tuesday, 7 February 2012 CONTENTS East and Horn of Africa: Sudan: Oil tension could lead to war West Africa: Mali: Tuareg insurgency could endanger presidential elections Nigeria: Fresh MEND s Attacks on the Nigerian Agip Oil Company raise security concerns of foreign companies Today s Briefings Compilation Ms Naomi Kok Editor Dr Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa

2 Summary of Briefings East and Horn of Africa Sudan: Oil tension could lead to war President Omar al- Bashir s interaction with the media last week has shed light on a number of important issues, especially concerning the relationship between Sudan and South Sudan. The first important issue that emerged is that the President thinks the tension between the two countries resulting from the oil crisis can possibly lead to war. According to Al- Bashir however, Khartoum would not initiate any war, but if presented with it, they will have no option but to engage in it. Al- Bashir warned that if this were to happen, there would be very high attrition for both countries especially the South. Juba s response to the question of the possibility of war has been swift. Vice President Riek Machar has responded to Khartoum by saying that the South will not go to war with the North. According to Machar they are not avoiding war based on a fear of defeat but rather because the situation in which they find themselves with the North does not make war an option. President Salva Kiir has also reiterated the position of Juba not to go to war with Khartoum. President Bashir s admission of the possibility of war comes after his second vice president, Al- Haj Adam Youssef reportedly warned that the Sudan Armed Forces could strike as far as Juba in pursuit of rebels operating in the troubled border areas of Sudan. The situation offers a glimpse into the thinking of the two capitals and even though it is not conclusive of imminent war, speaks to the extent of tensions between the two countries and the need for swift diplomatic solutions to ease the tension. It is high time regional organisations and the African Union stressed the need for the two countries to be circumspect in their political rhetoric so as not to exacerbate the tension between the two. Such a move is crucial because a number of important post- independence issues still remain unresolved. The international community, both in Africa and beyond, might not favour a war between the two countries. However, if war were to recur between the two countries, the possibility of other countries becoming involved will be high. President Bashir also admitted in the same interview that this year will be economically difficult for the North, however, attempts are being made to diversify the economy through expansion of gold and agricultural production. Sudan has been exporting gold since 1991 but it has not really been given much attention over years. Last year, however, a number of important agreements with various companies were signed towards expanding the gold production base of the country. Coming after the split and the oil row between Khartoum and Juba, a diversification of the economy is perhaps one of the most important and economically prudent measures that can be taken by the leadership in Khartoum. Diversifying the economy will ease the over- reliance on oil, which is the primary reason for the on- going oil crisis. Such a move is also important for the future stability of Juba. Even though oil might remain an important major source of income, it is in the long- term interest of the new state to consider diversification of the economy away from oil. Given Juba s endowment in terms of fertile agricultural lands, widening the agricultural base of the country is necessary. The President s admission of economic hardship is perhaps an important indication into the moves by Sudan regarding the oil. Sudan s stances at the negotiation table need to be interrogated critically since they appear to reflect the internal push for alternative sources of improving the national budget rather than an elaborate anti- Juba policy. ACPP Daily Briefing, Tuesday, 7 February

3 West Africa Mali: Tuareg insurgency could endanger presidential elections It seems even after his death in October last year, Muammar Gadaffi has managed to remain central to the Tuareg insurgency in Mali and a fragile peace in the northern region of the country. After Gadaffi s death, thousands of Tuaregs who had previously served in his army, have now returned to Mali, Chad and Niger among others with potential risks of destabilising those countries. Key questions in the minds of many are who can fill the vacuum left by the Libyan dictator and what impact the ongoing violence in Northern Mali could have on the already volatile and complex security environment of the Sahel. As anticipated, the Tuareg insurgency against the Mali government has been re- ignited and strengthened with weapons from Gadaffi s arsenal. The Tuareg- led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (NMLA) is one of the oldest insurgents threatening the territorial integrity of Mali. The secessionist claims of the movement are not new as the group has since the 1960s vowed to liberate Azawad, as they call Northern Mali, from Malian occupation. Even though generations of Tuaregs have come to the realisation that the creation a Tuareg state might be impossible and have progressively accepted the authority of the existing states through numerous peace accords and concessions, the reality is that opportunistic leaders from that group and other disgruntled citizens continue to threaten the territorial integrity and national security of most Sahelian states. What is new, and this after efforts by the government of Mali to address some of the concerns raised by the Tuareg community, is the recurrence of violence sparked by the precarious situation in Libya and the absence of a strategy to control and absorb Tuaregs returning from the embattled North Africa. Indeed, on the 16 th and 17 th of January, NMLA soldiers attacked military barracks in various cities such as Menaka, Aguelhoc and Tessalit. The militants held these three towns for a short period of time, but the government managed to reclaim them by the 20 th January. This, however, did not stop the insurgents as they continued to attack the towns of Anderamboukane and Lere on the 26 th of January. The insurgents relied on hit and run tactics which consist of attacking government positions and retreating to the desert since they do not have the necessary means to sustain their military offensive. However, some reports have suggested that the rebellion has received support and endorsement from former Libyan high- ranking military officers including General Ali Kanna, Colonels Seid Intalla and Lech Didi. According to Mali s Foreign Minister, Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga these militants have access to anti- tank and anti- aircraft weapons as well as enough small arms to be able to put up a fight against the Malian army. There have been both government and civilian casualties and more than people have been displaced. Meanwhile, far from being a purely military exercise for the national army, the insurgency came at the time when Mali is looking forward to holding its presidential elections in April There is a fear that if peace is not restored immediately, the presidential elections might be under threat with risks of generalised instability in the country. Already, social tensions are building up among various communities in the country. Parents of slain soldiers in the fighting took their anger to the street against members of the Tuareg community. To mitigate the tensions, the Muslim community as well as other religious leaders in Mali have been calling for peace, while the political leadership has been meeting in Algeria to craft yet another strategy to deal with the Tuareg insurgency. The resurgence of the Tuareg militants is ACPP Daily Briefing, Tuesday, 7 February

4 causing a major problem for Mali, especially considering the already big threat of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). While Bamako did not expect this sudden rise in the insurgency due to the various actions undertaken by successive governments since the 1990s and particularly the accidental death of former rebel leader Ibrahim Ag Bahanga, opposition forces in Mali are of the opinion that the government has failed to anticipate and devise a preventive strategy to counter the negative impact of the citizens returning from Libya. According to the leader of the Party for African Solidarity, Democracy and Independence (SADI), Oumar Mariko, Chad and Niger, unlike Mali, anticipated, monitored closely the movement of the Tuareg both before and after the downfall of the Libyan dictator. Other opposition leaders even accused the outgoing president of not doing enough to counter the rebellion. Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT) is very familiar with the security problems in Northern Mali and has given preference to dialogue with the insurgents over the years. Recently, Mali launched a special programme for the restoration of state authority in the region, a programme that sought to address some of the socio- economic grievances aired by concerned communities. The programme also aims at reducing the influence of the AQIM on the youth by offering them socio- economic alternatives. As he comes to the end of his term with no intention to manipulate the constitution of the country to hang onto power, ATT hopes to leave a legacy of a peaceful and consolidated democracy. This might be compromised if he fails to reach a peace agreement with the insurgents and to offer enough guarantees that peace provisions will be implemented by an eventual new president. Internationally, the resurgence of the Tuareg insurgency is also causing tensions among regional and external actors. The latest issue of Lettre du Continent (2 February 2012) contends that Mali accused France of being the instigator of the NMLA s attacks. According to the report, it is alleged that France would like to use the NMLA to fight AQIM and free the six French hostages still held by the terrorist group in the Sahel. Another factor that fuelled Bamako s concern is the claim from the NMLA that France and Qatar ought to be their preferred mediators in the conflict. It is not clear what would France s interest be in an unstable Mali. And it would be extremely risky to seek the instrumentalisation of the NMLA to reach out to the AQIM let alone the liberation of the hostages. One thing that is important to highlight beyond speculations and suspicions is that key regional and extra- regional actors need to cooperate and work on a coherent and medium to long- term regional security strategy to mitigate the security risks in the Sahel. That dialogue among the actors still remains incoherent. Nigeria: Fresh MEND s Attacks on the Nigerian Agip Oil Company raise security concerns of foreign companies Over the weekend, the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND), which had been dormant for almost a year, claimed responsibility for the attacks that led to the destruction of Agip Oil Company s crude oil pipeline in the Bayelsa East Senatorial district. These attacks were the most significant since the completion of the amnesty programme of The Joint Task Force (JTF) in the Niger Delta has vowed to locate the persons responsible for the weekend bombing of the Agip facility. Meanwhile, MEND has warned that the JTF will regret launching an investigation into the attacks and has threatened to carry out more bomb attacks in the next few weeks. ACPP Daily Briefing, Tuesday, 7 February

5 The recent attacks on oil facilities could only mean that MEND has never ceased to be a threat to peace and security in Nigeria. While the amnesty programme is said to have reduced the recurrent violence in the region, many including some MEND members believe that the federal government still has a lot to do to consolidate peace. It is argued that since the amnesty was concluded, little attention was given to the root causes of the conflict. There are also reports that some militants, disappointed by the absence of job opportunities, have decided to return to the creeks. A key concern with these new attacks is that MEND indicated its plan to target South African companies operating in Nigeria. The movement has issued a warning to the South African government because of the alleged South African interference with the legitimate demands of the Niger- Delta people. It is not clear why the militants have indicted South Africa and why they directed their threats towards South Africa s MTN and SACOil. But one could attempt to establish a link between the ongoing trials of the former militant leader Henry Okah in South Africa and the precarious situation in the Niger Delta. Okah was accused of masterminding two car bombings in Abuja, Nigeria on October 1, the country's Independence Day, in Close to 20 people were killed and 36 were injured. It is speculated that the adjournment of the trial by the Johannesburg High Court until October 2012 might have angered the militants. The South African Ministry of Internal affairs has stated its belief that the Nigerian government would protect South African investments in the Niger Delta. Concerned about the threats to the security of its investments in Nigeria, MTN has requested Abuja for assistance. Nigeria is facing tough times due to having to deal with Boko Haram in the North and a possible resurgence of violence in the Niger Delta. If these security threats are not managed properly they might impede the transformation agenda of President Goodluck Jonathan as well as strain Nigeria s commercial relations with its business partners. At a time when the federal government is striving to attract foreign direct investment, these issues deserve urgent attention. End ACPP Daily Briefing, Tuesday, 7 February