Science and Technology Policy

Transcription

1 Science and Technology Policy USAEE/ North American Conference Rosina Bierbaum Dean and Professor September 25, 2006

2 FIRST LESSON LEARNED ON THE SCIENCE POLICY JOB: Science is not the loudest voice so use it wisely!

3 Is science being held to a higher standard? What happened to the precautionary principle? What happened to changing an unsustainable trend? Acid rain Ozone depletion Health-based standards

4 OTA, 1984

5 The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

6 A few Assertions about the Players in Science and Technology Policy The White House focuses on the President s agenda The federal agencies focus on law, including their missions - but they are led by political appointees Congress makes the laws with great difficulty Many laws are outdated, ambiguous, even poor, resulting in court battles There are special interests on all sides Stalemate is not a rare outcome

7 Science Policy: Many Masters President Congress OSTP OMB Appropriations Subcommittees $ $ NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE DOC(NOAA) and other agencies

8 Plenty of advice OSTP President OMB National Academies (NAS/NAE/IOM) Congress Appropriations Subcommittees PCAST $ $ Expert testimony NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE DOC(NOAA) and other agencies Expert Advisory Committees

9 Plenty of advice and and pressure! Special Interests Media President Media Congress OSTP OMB National Academies (NAS/NAE/IOM) Appropriations Subcommittees Lobbyists PCAST Media $ $ Disciplines Expert testimony Special Interests Industry Consumers NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE DOC(NOAA) and other agencies Expert Advisory Committees Neal Lane, 2003

10 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE

11 Research will get Squeezed in Future Budgets Most of the budget is NOT discretionary X X X X X

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15 State of the Union 2006 Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world. So tonight I announce the Advanced Energy Initiative -- To change how we power our homes and offices, we will invest more in zero-emission coalfired plants; revolutionary solar and wind technologies; and clean, safe nuclear energy. We must also change how we power our automobiles. We will increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen. We will also fund additional research in cuttingedge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn but from wood chips and stalks or switch grass. Our goal is to make this new kind of ethanol practical and competitive within six years. Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025.

16 U.S. DOE Energy RD&D 1978-FY2007 Admin. Request Electricity T&D Fossil (including CCT demo) Renewables Efficiency Fusion Fission Request million 2000$

17 Change from FY06 to FY07: Administration Request in Broad Categories (million 2000$) Category FY06 FY07 Request % change Renewable energy % Fission % Efficiency % Fusion % Non-hydrogen efficiency % Fossil % Electricity T&D % Kelly Sims-Gallagher, Harvard, 2006

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19 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T Grade B+ FALLING PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE

20 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE

21 What Do the American People Know? (from survey done for NSF s SE Indicators *) Plants produce oxygen Continents have been moving for millions of years Light travels faster than sound Earth goes around the sun Not all radioactivity is manmade >70% Earliest humans did not live with the dinosaurs Earth takes one year to go around the sun Electrons are smaller than atoms Antibiotics do not kill viruses Lasers do not work by focusing sound waves 50% * From NSF (National Science Board) Science and Engineering Indicators, chapt. 7

22 What Do the American People Believe? (from various polls reported in NSF s SE Indicators *) Psychic or spiritual healing - mind over body ( > 50%) ESP (50%) Haunted houses (>40%) Ghosts (40%) ET visits ( >30%) Astrology is scientific or sort of (40%) Evolution in schools teach only evolution (20%) teach with creationism (> 45%) do not teach evolution at all (16%) } > > 60% * From NSF (National Science Board) Science and Engineering Indicators, chapt. 7

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24 Increasing Confidence in the Science IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability and other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming. IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities.

25 Adverse impacts-- Since the 2001 IPCC Report, evidence has grown: Rapid ice melt (Greenland and the Arctic) deadly heat-waves increased intensity of major storms increased frequency & intensity of droughts increased frequency of great floods change in species ranges & behavior increased frequency & extent of wildfires US Public response to the science?????????

26 Public Understanding of Science Universities, science-based NGOs, the National Academies, & other professional societies generate many valuable studies of S&T for policy, but channels for communicating results are weak; Science news reporters dwindling; sound-bite world & effort to always portray 2 sides to an issue don t t help. Interest of public is low because of limited understanding of stakes (vicious circle). Ability of public to penetrate & discriminate arguments with S&T content is limited by short-comings in S&T education at K12 and college levels.

27 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE Grade C- RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE FALLING

28 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE

29 The integrity of U.S. science has always been non-partisan Science, like any field of endeavor, relies on freedom of inquiry; and one of the hallmarks of that freedom is objectivity. Now, more than ever, on issues ranging from climate change to AIDS research to genetic engineering to food additives, government relies on the impartial perspective of science for guidance. President George H.W. Bush, April 23, 1990 But something has changed: Restoring Scientific Integrity in Policymaking, calling attention to misrepresentation & misuse of science by some in the current Administration, was signed initially by 62 scientists, including many Nobel Laureates; now 9000 have signed.

30 When scientific knowledge has been found to be in conflict with its political goals, the administration has often manipulated the process through which science enters into its decisions. This has been done by placing people who are professionally unqualified or who have clear conflicts of interest in official posts and on scientific advisory committees; by disbanding existing advisory committees; by censoring and suppressing reports by the government s s own scientists; and by simply not seeking independent scientific advice. Scientists statement, 18 February 2004

31 UCS Examples of misrepresentation of science or interference with h science Aluminum num Tubes in Iraq Breast Cancer Endangered Species: Salmon, Florida Panther, Bull Trout, Trumpter Swans EPA Air Pollution Rules Threaten Public Health Forest Management HIV/AIDS Education Mercury Emissions Mountaintop Removal Mining Political interference at NOAA National Nuclear Security Admin Panel NIH: Drug Abuse Panel Arms Control Panel Army Science Board Workplace Safety Panel President's Council on Bioethics Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS Fogarty Internat l Center Advisory Board Reproductive Health Advisory Committee Lead Poisoning Prevention Panel U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Survey FDA Survey Adapted from of- political.html

32 Other administrations have, on occasion, engaged in such practices, but not so systematically nor on so wide a front. Furthermore, in advocating policies that are not scientifically sound, the administration has sometimes misrepresented scientific knowledge and misled the public about the implications of its policies. Scientists statement, 18 February 2004 The 62 original signers hold, among them, 20 Nobel Prizes and 18 National Medals of Science. They include the president of Caltech; former directors of the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the National Bureau of Standards, FermiLab,, and the Livermore Lab; 2 President s Science Advisors and 3 former presidents of the American Association for the Advancement of Science

33 On June 21, 2004, 48 U.S. Nobel Laureates in science issued an open letter to the American public, saying in part: The prosperity, health, environment, and security of Americans depend on Presidential leadership to sustain our vibrant science and technology; to encourage education at home and to attract talented scientists and engineers from abroad; and to nurture a business environment that transforms new knowledge into opportunities for creating quality jobs and reaching shared goals. President Bush and his administration are compromising our future on each of these counts. And by ignoring scientific consensus on critical issues such as global climate change, they are threatening the earth s s future. (emphasis added)

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36 A wake-up call on the integrity of science the case of climate change The President was able to simply reject the Kyoto agreement - without a public outcry and in spite of significant international criticism The White House (CEQ) was able to manipulate the Department of State and EPA reports to mislead the public about the science of climate change Influential members of Congress can get away with outrageous statements about the science of climate change : greatest hoax perpetrated on the American people ; Alaska is warming but fossil fuels have nothing to do with it. That s my opinion and it s s as good as any scientist s. s. A popular author, Michael Crichton,, is convinced that the science of global warming and climate change is a hoax - and he has set out to convince the American public of that and is invited to brief the President and testify on climate science to the Congress.

37 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE Grade D- NADIR POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE

38 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE

39 The White House, Congressional and interagency processes have changed National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) less active to coordinate research PCAST not active in broad science and environmental oversight Congress did away with the Office of Technology Assessment OSTP does not lead on climate science EPA intends to close labs, cut its cadre of upper-level scientists and reduce regulatory oversight, according to an internal agency document (June 8 memo).

40 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE Grade C- FALLING

41 We can all have our own opinions, But we can t all have our own FACTS!!!

42 Policy Informed by Science Number of members of Congress with graduate training in S&T is tiny; top officials in Executive Branch agencies (other than NSF, OSTP, NIH and NOAA) rarely have graduate degrees in S&T. minus Fewer hearings on substantive issues (climate, manned space exploration, new nuclear weapons, stem cells, environmental regulations, missile defense, GMOs, nuclear waste and reactor safety); more Christmas tree bills; more partisan science. minus BUT Many more Science Fellows on the Hill & in agencies (>150 this year!). Plus, over the long term Increasing number of Science, Technology and Public Policy graduate programs in major universities, recognizing importance of excelling in this domain. Plus, over the long term

43 A FEW SCIENCE POLICY MATTERS THAT CAUSE CONCERN OVERALL HEALTH OF S&T GRADE B+ Falling PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE GRADE C- Falling RESPECT FOR THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE GRADE D- Nadir POLICY INFORMED BY SCIENCE GRADE C- Falling

44 Changing Landscape on climate change Sense of the Senate Resolution Pressure coming from Cities States Mainstream corporate America International Drumbeat of science New voices: Evangelicals

45 Sense of the Senate Resolution, It is the sense of the Senate that Congress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions at a rate and in a manner that-- (1) will not significantly harm the United States economy; and (2) will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major trading partners and key contributors to global emissions.

46 Corporate Commitments and Results 10% reduction $650 million saved 69% reduction $2 billion saved 10% reduction It s made us more competitive 5% reduction Absolute cap 35% reduction $200 million saved 19% reduction 10% reduction 72% reduction 25% reduction $100 million saved 6% reduction 65% reduction $791 million saved 17% reduction 13% reduction 9% reduction 1% reduction $1.5 billion clean tech R&D 37% reduction 25% reduction

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48 State Policies Renewable Power (RPS) and Fuels (RFS) Standards Hawaii Power (20) Fuels (5) Both (3)

49 From A Plea from Religion and Science for Action on Global Change. May, We are people of religious life and people of science......stewardship, justice, protection of the weak, intergenerational duty, and prudence are universal values when responsible scientific study has identified grave risk. Global warming is a universal moral challenge. Earth s climate embraces us all.

50 Climate Change: An Evangelical Call to Action February 8, 2006 Claim 1: Human-Induced Climate Change is Real Claim 2: The Consequences of Climate Change Will Be Significant, and Will Hit the Poor the Hardest Claim 3: Christian Moral Convictions Demand Our Response to the Climate Change Problem Claim 4: The need to act now is urgent. Governments, businesses, churches, and individuals all have a role to play in addressing climate change - - starting now.

51 Time for a new approach? Continue to improve the science and technology. Devote time to policy and education as civic scientists. Try to separate the science and policy from politics. Recognize the realities of near-term economic needs but invest in the future Criticize exaggeration on both sides. Form alliances with other fields to defend S&T. Build bridges between universities, fed. and ind.. Labs. Work to increase research funding (for all fields).

52 Everything that is really great and inspiring is created by the individual who can labor in freedom. (Albert Einstein, Out of My Later Years (1950))