The era of climate change skepticism is not over. Dr. Constantine Boussalis

Transcription

1 The era of climate change skepticism is not over Dr. Constantine Boussalis

2 Two futures "Peak and decline" trajectory RCP 2.6 High emission trajectory RCP 8.5 IPCC (2013) Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 1 / 16

3 Two policy futures Option A Option B I won t let anyone take us backward, deny our economy the benefits of harnessing a clean energy future, or force our children to endure the catastrophe that would result from unchecked climate change. Hillary Clinton, November 29, 2015 Any and all weather events are used by the GLOBAL WARMING HOAXSTERS to justify higher taxes to save our planet. They don't believe it $$$$! Donald Trump, January 25, 2014 Dr. Constantine Boussalis BOUSSALC@tcd.ie The era of climate change skepticism is not over 2 / 16

4 Parties divided Climate skepticism in the 114th U.S. Congress Senate: 38 House: 144 Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 3 / 16

5 Partisans divided Believe rise in Earth s Temperature in Last Century Due Mainly to Human Activities Democrats Independents Republicans Gallup Environmental Poll Dr. Constantine Boussalis BOUSSALC@tcd.ie The era of climate change skepticism is not over 4 / 16

6 Why are Americans so divided on the issue of climate change?

7 The climate skeptic countermovement Fossil Fuels Industry Corporate America Conservative Foundations Conservative Think Tanks Front Groups Media Echo Chamber Politicians Blogs Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 6 / 16

8 The climate skeptic countermovement Fossil Fuels Industry Corporate America Conservative Foundations Conservative Think Tanks Front Groups Media Echo Chamber Politicians Blogs Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 7 / 16

9 Conservative think tanks Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 8 / 16

10 The era of science denial is over? Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly [...] The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science. Frank Luntz, Leaked memo, 2002 The real world is leaving behind those who flatly reject the science underpinning the notion that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet. Leo Hickman, Guardian, 2013 [Deniers] now concede that climate change is real, but reject the scientific consensus that human activity---mainly burning fossil fuels---is driving it. Elliott Negin, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015 Dr. Constantine Boussalis BOUSSALC@tcd.ie The era of climate change skepticism is not over 9 / 16

11 What are skeptical think tanks talking about? Energy & Emissions Int l Politics Scientific Integrity Dr. Constantine Boussalis BOUSSALC@tcd.ie The era of climate change skepticism is not over 10 / 16

12 The dynamics of individual topics (a) Cap and trade W axman M arkey 0.10 L ieberman W arner 0.05 Mean Topic Probability (b) Scientific misconduct C limategate 0.05 Congressional hearings M ann controversy D at e Dr. Constantine Boussalis BOUSSALC@tcd.ie The era of climate change skepticism is not over 11 / 16

13 How does aggregate discourse change over time? (b) Relative topic prevalance (all orgs.) 0.6 Science 0.4 Mean Topic Proportion (c) Relative topic prevalance (excl. Co2Science) Policy Policy Science Date Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 12 / 16

14 The world s most prominent skeptical think tank The Heartland Institute 0.8 Science Mean Topic Probability P olicy D at e Dr. Constantine Boussalis BOUSSALC@tcd.ie The era of climate change skepticism is not over 13 / 16

15 The climate skeptic countermovement Fossil Fuels Industry Corporate America Conservative Foundations Conservative Think Tanks Front Groups Media Echo Chamber Politicians Blogs Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 14 / 16

16 Skepticism in the blogosphere Avg. Quarterly Topic Prob Science Policy 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1 2013q1 2014q1 2015q1 Note: Series are generated using 229,183 blog posts from the top 59 climate change skeptic blogs (see Sharman 2014). Aggregate topics Science and Policy are estimated using Latent Dirichlet Allocation. 2016q1 Dr. Constantine Boussalis The era of climate change skepticism is not over 15 / 16

17 Concluding Remarks 1 CTT claims-making has grown rapidly since 1998; reaching a peak in late Discourse touches on a wide range of topics, which cluster into distinct themes associated with politics, policy, science, and scientific integrity. 3 Scientific integrity themes appear closer (semantically) to politics than science. 4 The era of climate science denial is not over. 5 CTTs tend to react to the external environment i.e., they counter claims and thus studies focusing on narrow intervals of time (or a single organisation) are likely sensitive to these contextual factors. Dr. Constantine Boussalis BOUSSALC@tcd.ie The era of climate change skepticism is not over 16 / 16