VOTING IN NEW ZEALAND

Transcription

1 VOTING IN NEW ZEALAND EARLY THEORIES OF VOTING Economic Voting is based on rational self-interest, and is seen as a product of short-term influences - current issues (1950s) - rational choice theorists were interested in individual behaviour, seeing the world as individuals being the most important actors, whose decisions are the most important to understand and assess how we vote collectively. The collective is made up of individuals We pursue self-interest: we aren t voting for the betterment of society, rather to our own preferences and what is in our own interests Party competition is like a marketplace (Anthony Down s An Economic Theory of Democracy) Psychological Voting behaviour reflects the emotional attachments we form with parties early on in our adult life; long-term factor that remains stable (1950s) Political psychology is a subfield of political science Sociological Voting is a product of the social groups to which we belong (e.g. church, trade unions, family, rural/urban etc.) Voting is something broader than our own self-interest Long-term influences on voting behaviour Social background - e.g. class, income Early experiences and learning - e.g. parents political loyalties, education Organisational memberships - e.g. trade unions, church Ideology and political attitudes - e.g. role of the state, individual vs collective goals, materialist vs post-materialist values Party identification - which party do you identify closest with? These are not likely to shift from one election to another - they stay with us all our life. Short-term influences on voting behaviour Policy proposals Current state of the economy Media coverage Leadership Influence of others

2 - Approximately 2/3 of party voters are party identifiers - The long-term influences in 2008 did matter, but there are of course arguments that party identification is falling. - However, 44.5% of people said they were not close to a political party. - If the n (sample size) is random and big enough, we can safely use the result as a good indicator of electoral outcomes VOTER VOLATILITY Over time, voters are rejecting party labels We use them only as a cue on issues - we expect certain parties to respond to certain issues with certain policies, and we wait for these cues Less engaged and content with the political parties - we are no longer emotionally or habitually identifying with political parties View themselves as independent voters Change voters from one election to next (swing voters) - it was once argued that a certain age group of women were more likely to be swing voters, but this is unlikely to be the case nowadays and at the time, the data wasn t sufficiently coded and counted to be deemed useful Women s voting: National used to be abhorred for its gender gap, but John Key has closed this considerably under the current National-led government Wait and choose close to the election Volatility may be sophistication Strategic voting - using opinion polls and media We take what we read/hear in the media and in opinion polls and use this to form our decision Attitudes on issues more complicated and less economic in focus new issue dimensions : health, environment, education etc. we look beyond economics Split voting possible in MMP electoral system electorate vote and party vote 42% of voters had decided a long time ago who they were going to vote for in the 2008 New Zealand General Election - this is more likely to be due to long-term influences, and these people are likely to be party identifiers. This changed to 34.7% in the 2011 General Election. 30% of voters had decided during the campaign who they were going to vote for in the 2008 New Zealand General Election - this is more likely to be due to short-term influences. We are seeing that there are more volatile voters, and are less likely to be party identifiers.

3 WHY ARE VOTERS BECOMING MORE VOLATILE? - more highly educated and rejecting traditional ideologies - lack of attention to traditional support groups (e.g. Maori, low income workers and elderly) - Anthony Downs median voter theory - both major parties are trying to appeal to the moderate voter by moderating their policies - post-materialist voters, and more diverse electorates - competition from new parties for voter loyalty and support (more choice) - incentives provided by MMP for strategic and split voting WHY DO VOTERS SPLIT THEIR VOTE? Our split voting rate is much higher than Germany (whose MMP system we derived our current electoral system from) - some say it is confusion, but evidence from NZES suggests it is in fact a strategic decision. This fits with the economic voting theory - that we choose what serves our best interests. To avoid waste votes in electorate seat Major party vote in electorates Minor party vote with party vote Recognition that party vote determines share of seats parties hold in parliament To ensure threshold parties win representation To elect a coalition partner Epsom / NZ First / Green OTHER FACTORS (NON-PARTISANS) Economics Performance of the economy Negative evaluations of prior performance Voters perceive strongly that National has performed unwaveringly during the economic woes during the last government term National is generally perceived as the natural party of government (National in government for 28 years, whereas Labour was only in for 6 years, during the period of the two-party system) Issues (2008) Global warming Crime Demographics (2008) Ideological self-placement Age (older folks tend to vote National - why? natural party of government, FPP system meant you either voted National or Labour)

4 IN CONCLUSION... Long-term influences still matter, and party identification therefore is still a key determinant of voter choice. But, there is also an increase in the number of volatile voters. 30% of these are non-partisan (do not identify strongly with a particular party), but their choice when voting depends on issues, age, economics and leaders MMP supports split voting, and strategic voting to a certain extent too

5 POST-WAR NEW ZEALAND THEME: New Zealand politics was dominated by the theme of continuity. Between mid-1970s and 1984, that continuity began to break down. What was continuity based on? 1. Two-party monopoly on power (Labour was a very transformative government... National was the result of a coalition between two parties in 1936) 2. Broad consensus between the two major parties over the direction of New Zealand politics Reasons for two-party dominance: lack of social divisions (no class system as such unlike Britain, quite egalitarian, no language problems, no parties distinguished by culture or religion)... the main divide was socio-economic (where they live and the lifestyle they have, resulting from their jobs/income)... There was a Ratana movement merged with Labour Party, thus Maori voted Labour. broad base of voter support (National voters tended to be from rural electorates because they depended on the countryside as their livelihood, wealthier urban electorates which were populated by people in business and professions) etc. VOTER TYPES National = generally people with high incomes Labour = blue-collar workers, tradespeople, teachers and nurses, beneficiaries Post-war prosperity - people remained faithful to one party or the other... and they were rewarded through the prosperity that resulted from one party being elected over and over again FPP electoral system - either Labour or National e.g election... National gains 38.8% and 47 seats, but Labour 39% with 43 seats... also Social Credit Party gains nearly 20% with only 2 seats Problems: disproportionate, and punished small parties / rewarded larger parties

6 THE OUTCOME: National became known as the natural party of government Because Labour suffered from narrow electoral base, it was mainly in opposition Minor parties (such as Social Credit) were frustrated outsiders National was the party with new ideas in 1949 Labour had a very elderly leader (Nash), made mistakes, and National returned to power in 1960 with Holyoake, then Marshall. Labour returned in 1972 with Kirk, who died, followed by Rowling. Then Muldoon until 1984 Consensus: campaigned as ideological adversaries: National said Labour was socialist, National said they were a party of self-determination. Labour said National was almost neofascist / right-wing, a party which believed in a small State and everyone struggling to make a living on their own. government pragmatically according to a common core of values: these guided and guarded their administrations DISTRIBUTION OF PARTIES ON THE LEFT-RIGHT ECONOMIC SCALE: National has been depicted as centre-right, Labour centre-left. They each tried to push them as far right/left respectively, to attract more voters. This is how things worked during the post-war period. Areas of two-party agreements: Mixed economy - capitalist, but government also has a role to play and standard of living is adequate for most Belief in an active state - State had a role to play in giving equal opportunity, rich paid much more tax than poorer people so as to distribute income fairly throughout the country... government intervened and raised

7 money to build railways/airways/telecommunications etc. and guarded those assets for the good of all citizens (i.e. paid for by taxpayer, and must be owned by taxpayer)... National and Labour both agreed on this. (real life example: Radio Hauraki was created under a National government, and National believed so much that radio should be public not private, they tried to shut it down... Radio Hauraki was in fact incredibly successful) Universal welfare: first Labour government built state houses, created a free education and health system for all... most expensive: Muldoon said you could retire at 60 years old at 3/4 of the average wage Preservation of NZers way of life through limited immigration Domestic and foreign security: Anti-nuclear laws CONTRADICTORY VIEWS: The golden age of prosperity: Strong economy Full employment - for most of this period Family wage - it was assumed that most women would stop work at least while children were going to school / growing up... so men earned a family wage so that she doesn t have to go to work, and could support them and 3 children Home ownership the norm - huge influx of new housing (e.g. Pakuranga, Mt. Roskill, Hillsborough, Glen Innes... state houses were developed on quarter-acre sections). People could borrow at lower interest rates to be repaid over a long period of time... strong commitment to private ownership of cars, so public transport wasn t a feasible option for most Safe and intimate community Dull and over-regulated society: Small and homogeneous population - little diversity Social uniformity - strong pressure to conform, intolerance of difference Conservative social values - school system which reinforced the idea of obedience Provincial lifestyle - Auckland was essentially a big small town... few cafés or restaurants, just tea rooms (e.g. no Ponsonby café culture) Few sources of entertainment: TV only arrived in 1960 Unrepresentative political elite: tended to reflect dominant socio-economic groups of their party --> (National - farmers and middle-aged men // Labour - trade union reps)

8 Unravelling of the consensus: 1. Economic stagflation (interest rates soared) 2. Loss of colonial and trade dependency (most of what we produced went to Britain... new markets discovered, we diversified) 3. Welfare state under strain - constantly looking for ways to cut back 4. Pressure for social liberalisation and reform - e.g. Women s movement in 1970s, anti-nuclear, peace movement, Maori activism all began in 1970s 5. Growing social divisions - big social movements and interest groups were formed and challenged two major parties 6. Beginnings of an ideological struggle within major parties - more free market policies? 7. Muldoon s autocratic leadership was questioned - during a period of stagnation, when oil prices were so high, he decided NZ should be more self-sufficient, so he borrowed more from overseas CONCLUSION 1. Gradual erosion of electoral support (1/4 NZers were part of a political party, this changed) for the two major parties - party membership began to hollow, increase in protest parties 2. Growing division within National over the extent of government regulation and control - Jim Bolger began to question National s commitment to a mixed economy and active welfare state 3. Emergence of a more youthful and professional leadership within Labour (e.g. David Lange, Roger Douglas, Helen Clark)... none of them reflected the working-class, a few of them were lawyers so they didn t necessarily represent the typical working-class base of voters who tended to vote for Labour

9 NEOLIBERALISM THEME Discontinuity A former consensus unravels, and the election of a Labour government in 1984 signals the end of post-war continuity. A period of change - the Keynesian welfare state and its bipartisan nature was beginning to be questioned. Free-market policies overseas in Britain (Thatcher) and Labour in Australia showed that Keynesian welfare state of post-war was not going to be sustainable, and thus not desirable. An agreement that existed now begins to fall apart The commitment to the universal welfare (Keynesian welfare) state were the characteristics of the post-war period, but this consistency began to fall. The election of a Labour government in 1984 signals the end of post-war continuity. Policy change: Neo-liberal reform, support of the free market (economy became deregulated, Labour immediately devalued the currency to avoid disaster) Why did this continuity stop? Response to crisis - NZ was going through a period of profound change in the 70s, economy worsening, welfare system unaffordable, population became disillusioned by the solutions being offered, autocratic leadership Emergence of a new generation of politicians - born during or after World War II Public mood for change - two-party system, being told what to do... wanted a liberal and reformist government Response to crisis: Oil shocks in the 1970s (prices went up and had a dramatic inflationary effect on NZ economy) Stagnating economy (high interest rates, little growth, rapid rise in cost of living) Crisis of the welfare state - increasing cost as more and more people became unemployed meant it was no longer feasible (heading towards retirement at 60 years old and generous superannuation of 1975 by Muldoon government - 3/4 of average wage) Increased borrowing to finance spending (Think Big policies) - owned and operated by the state, cost of aluminium and steel declined rapidly Culture of economic regulation - people began to feel that government was trying to control too much e.g. price freeze (retailers could not charge more than what government ordered), wage freeze, driverless days (couldn t drive your car on one particular day a week)

10 EMERGENCE OF A NEW GENERATION OF POLITICIANS Professionally trained, middle-class elite: many were children of workingclass NZers but people who had been given the opportunity to go to University (became lawyers, doctors and accountants) Valued less collective and more individualistic: traditional collectivist Labour view (all for the social good, suppress own ambitions to create a better society) was changing to an individualistic view, so more interested in economic and social change (e.g. Lange, Douglas, Palmer) PUBLIC MOOD FOR CHANGE Disenchantment with politics of division: New Zealand was divided with South African tour visit during apartheid. People who opposed it tended to come from larger urban centres, those who favoured it were from provincial towns or rural areas. Desire for less government control over the lives of citizens: unions were being targeted by government and there were strikes. Racial, age and gender division: growth of social movements with new and radical agendas Maturing sense of national consciousness and identity: major changes taking place in public perception TERMINOLOGY: Neoliberalism: laissez-faire liberalism, less state control and less government interference in the economy Neo-conservatism: committed to free market policies, socially conservative (particularly in the USA) New Right: more independent and believed in a limited government Rogernomics: Roger Douglas was the architect of many new reforms - principles: 4th Labour government, young and educated who had been influenced by international market-driven policies, returned to NZ and condemned Muldoon and said he could solve it Things they did: less government interference and more laissez-faire capitalism / free market policy Principles of Neo-liberalism: Replaced Keynesian welfare state of the post-war era. Belief in the efficiency of the market (self-regulating mechanism) - supply and demand, and therefore prices... the market invisible hand leads us to desirable market outcomes Paramount importance of individual freedom and competition: if the state interferes too much, people become too dependent on the state, they will lose their personal ambition, so we must maximise individual freedom and liberty so they can pursue their own interests Highly restricted role of the State: protects rights, liberty and property of citizens, tax brackets changed (dropped from 66% to 33%)

11 Areas of policy change in the 1980s and 1990s: Economic (Keynesian welfare state became neo-liberal) Changes to the welfare system, should be more targeted and growing middle-class should take greater responsibility for their own lives Social values Labour market needed to be more competitive and so legislation was passed in 1991 Defence - a more independent NZ Foreign affairs - challenging traditional alliances Constitution - needed more constitutional constraints and liberties at the same time, Bill of Rights was passed in 1990 Economic reforms included: Freeing up the financial and exchange markets Remove subsidies - up until that time, particularly manufacturers and farmers, were given subsidies to protect their businesses from external competition Removing tariffs on consumer goods - creating a more open and competitive market Relaxing shop trading hours Reducing income and company tax and moving to direct taxation (GST) - 66% top tax reduced to 33% Privatising state-owned assets - selling off Telecom and Post Office Savings Bank, railway, Maui Gas, NZ Steel etc. Introducing user charges - designed mainly to make people who could afford it more responsible for their own social and financial wellbeing (e.g. hospital park charges) Divisions within the two major parties: Inside cabinet: people who were strongly opposed to what was going on. Within the caucus: (MPs from a political party who get together and talk about things): MPs who supported government and those who didn t, some even left the party Inside the party: party members began to protest the way their parties were going Inside the electorate at large: growing divisions The effect of this was the emergence of new parties: New Zealand Party (1983), Bob Jones set up NZ Party, who said Muldoon government was autocratic and not enough of a free market, started a libertarian party which collapsed into Labour in 1985 Greens (1990) - focused more on environmental issues Liberals (1992)

12 New Zealand First (1993) - decided he would leave National after much disagreement ACT (1994) - the Association of Consumers and Taxpayers - wanted National to go further with reforms, said they hadn t gone far enough Electoral Change Royal Commission on the Electoral System (1986) - David Lange in 1987 the night before the election that if Labour was re-elected, they would hold a referendum on the new system. After they won, he changed his mind. National promises a referendum on MMP in 1990, hoped that people would vote for change. First referendum in 1992, second binding referendum in 1993, voted for MMP over several other alternatives such as STV. MMP comes in 1996 Smaller parties now had a greater say Helen Clark-led Labour government was elected John Key-led National government was elected.

13 POLITICAL PARTICIPATION What do we as citizens do as political animals and do we interact with government? There are many ways we can measure and reflect this. QUOTES: While many in countries under dictatorial rule struggle bravely to achieve democracy, many people living in democracies are alienated from politics and feel it does not work properly. Gerry Stoker It is claimed that people hate politics, political parties have lost loyal voters as well as grassroots members, while electoral turnout has fallen and public disaffection has spread. Pippa Norris General sense that the meaning of politics to citizens is in decline. the slow slump in interest in politics and current events is due to the replacement of an older generation that was relatively interested in public affairs by a younger generation that is relatively uninterested. Robert Putnam Works with social capital concept. Explains decline of political participation. Not saying that young people don t care about politics, he believes television and technology etc. have ruined social capital (not sharing things, not being together, not encouraged to talk about politics). We don t socialise sufficiently with people and talk politics, less likely to talk and thus less likely to engage. Interest in politics by age: Older people tend to be more interested in politics. But we don t know if younger people will start to become more interested in politics... will they be more politically active? This is the worry for democratic scholars, because there is an argument put forward by American political science scholar that voting is habitual - the earlier you create the habit, the more likely you are to continue practicing the habit. He thinks voting age should be raised to 21 years or 25 years... What is it? Why does it matter? How do New Zealand citizens participate? Chapters 8.1, 8.2 and 8.3 WHAT IS IT? Participation in the process of government - it is an activity, it isn t an attitude. It s the process by which citizens, as distinct from public officials or elected politicians, choose political leaders, governments, and help shape and implement policies. WHY DOES IT MATTER? legitimises the democratic process - more people turning out to vote, tells us more about the whole set of democratic institutions that we have. Why did we change from

14 FPP to MMP? Partly because of declining voter turnout. We use participation as a measure of the legitimate nature of our democracy makes politicians accountable - when government isn t working under urgency, we have a really good select committee process. Not all select committees are chaired by MPs, so you don t necessarily get a negative outcome. improves quality of representation - more egalitarian, anybody can stand for parliament (essentially) makes for better decision-making creates a more cohesive community - social inclusion: the more people who feel like they have a say, the more likely we are to function better as a society. The more groups out there feeling marginalised, the more likely it is to have civil unrest (perhaps not so much in New Zealand). prevents government by a privileged elite - range of people who are doing the governing on our behalf Government is run by a few big interests In 2008, 38.2% of voters agreed, in 2011, 47% of voters agreed (increased between 2008 and 2011). But why? In the 12 months leading up to 2011, people felt worse off - economic recession. Everybody tends to associate National representing business and rural interests, as opposed to the worker interests typically associated with Labour. People like me have no say over what the government does... In 2008, 41.7% of voters agreed, in 2011, 48.3% of voters agreed (increased between 2008 and 2011). MAIN FORMS OF PARTICIPATION: low-cost participation high-cost participation LOW COST PARTICIPATION Voting in local and national elections (minimum element) - participation isn t compulsory - comparatively easy to enrol in New Zealand - comparatively easy to vote on election day Voting in referendums Subscription membership of a political party, interest group or social movement Accessing political blogs and party websites - very passive connection Following political developments in the media In Australia, voting is compulsory. Bad on some levels because you are forced to exercise your vote even if you don t want to - to send a message that you disagree with all political parties and don t want to vote. Most people vote the way they do because of the political party which they identify with. Voter turnout in 2011 was 74.21%. Idea that MMP would fix turnout hasn t happened. HIGH INTENSITY PARTICIPATION Becoming a parliamentary candidate or contesting a local body election

15 Making submissions to Parliament on proposed legislation Working on an electoral campaign Political demonstrations, industrial strikes with political objectives Various forms of civil disobedience such as refusing to pay taxes, fines or obey a conscription order Community action around local issues (e.g. housing or environment) WHO PARTICIPATES? - 18 to 24 years old are less likely to vote: - life-cycle argument (when you re young and have things to do etc., you are just less likely to participate in politics... as you become mature, you might participate) - generational argument (as new generations come onboard, they are just less likely to be political) - confidence and efficacy ( rational choice - focuses on the individual: is it in their interest to vote? If it s not, they won t... when they are confident that they know what they re doing, they believe what they are doing will make a difference) - Maori are less likely to vote: Maori or General roll? - Ethnic minorities and new migrants: less likely to turnout - Politically marginalised or disaffected: less likely to turnout SOCIAL BIAS IN PARTICIPATION: those who are less educated / have less income / have less social status are generally less likely to vote. New opportunities for participation Non-mainstream parties Social movements New technology (interactive party websites, political blogs and electronic voting) Deliberative democracy (citizen s assemblies and juries) POINTS TO TAKE AWAY FROM THIS LECTURE:

16 NEOLIBERALISM 1984 is often considered a watershed in New Zealand s political history. Neoliberalism is a modified form of political liberalism, favouring free market laissezfaire ideals, minimal state intervention, and the paramount importance of individual freedom, choice and responsibility. Public mood for change - the public were becoming more and more disillusioned by the policies offered by the two major parties. Moreover, there were growing divisions both within and between the major parties, especially after the National government under Muldoon prior to In 1984, the 4th Labour government was elected under the leadership of David Lange is often considered a watershed in New Zealand s political history. The policies introduced by this government are typical of neoliberal politics. The government began by immediately devaluing the high dollar. Privatisation of state assets such as NZ Steel, Maui Gas, Telecom and Post Office Savings Bank. Removal of tariffs on imported goods, and relaxing shop trading hours, to bring about a more open and competitive marketplace. The growing pressure for social reform and liberalisation led to the emergence of smaller, protest parties such as New Zealand Party in 1983 and the Greens in A referendum held in 1993 showed 85% support for a change from the FPP electoral system, which culminated in the introduction of MMP (Mixed Member Proportional) in POST WAR NEW ZEALAND The themes of continuity and consensus strongly dominated the post-war landscape in New Zealand. Why was their consensus between the two parties? Lack of major social divisions VOTING CHOICE To determine the legitimacy of democracy, we often look at political participation, but equally important is looking at the reasons behind why we vote the way we do. The first theory is the economic rational choice theory, which suggests that voters are motivated by self-interest in voting. Psychological theory states that we vote according to the emotional attachments early in life. The last idea proposed is sociological, saying that the groups we are part of are strong determinants of Long-term factors include our socio-economic background, education and party identification, which both psychological and sociological theory suggest come from our parents and close family. Short-term factors include the influence of others, media coverage and opinion polls, leadership and the state of the economy.

17 % of those eligible to vote did so Rational choice voters tend to believe that one vote doesn t make a difference, which would lead to the prediction that these economic voters would not vote - however, in the 2008 New Zealand General Election 75% of eligible voters did participate. In this case, we should look to psychological and sociological theory to help predict the reasons why voters voted the way they did % split their votes (strategic, not accidental) Why do voters split their votes? Most voters realise that party vote is what determines the share of seats which each party receives in parliament. It is due to this, coupled with the fall in party identification and engagement, that voters are more likely to devote their electorate vote to someone they like regardless of their political affiliation. Why are voters becoming more volatile? More educated, and thus ready to challenge traditions and political norms Volatility may in fact be sophistication - in 2008, 30% of voters split their vote between electorate and party vote. Less habitual identification and engagement with political parties % decided a long time ago who they were going to vote for Long-term factor of partisanship still important, something which psychological theory strongly predicts % decided during the campaign However, large number of voters are becoming more volatile, possibly due to the shortterm influence of others (sociological theory). MMP favours split voting, and strategic voting to some extent. Long-term influences such as party identification are still important, but there is a growing volatility within voters.