General Election 2015: an FTI Consulting briefing paper

Transcription

1 General Election 2015: an FTI Consulting briefing paper

2 Leadership Succession 2 // FTI Consulting LLP

3 ForEWord Thursday 7 May will see the country head to polling stations in what has been labelled the most unpredictable election since Much like that election, the electorate is likely to wake up the next morning with no clear result and a hung parliament. Frenzied political negotiations between parties will ensue to determine the next tenant of downing street. in 1974, as a twenty five year old Labour activist, i watched the conservatives fail to convert consistently favourable polls into a seat majority despite winning a greater share of the vote than Labour. The snp doubled its share of the popular vote and sent seven Mps to Westminster. Key issues of contention between the parties were immigration, the recent entry to the EEc and a clear commitment to immediately seek a fundamental re-negotiation of the terms of [that] entry, all of which bear remarkable similarity to the current state of affairs. fundamental questions about the extent to which regulators should intervene in the economy, the course of action to take with regards to debt and deficit and the prospects of efficiently collecting fair tax contributions from multinationals. in 1974, policymakers struggled to understand the implication of the oil embargo and the entry into an era of ever increasing oil prices. in 2015, energy policy is being re-defined by the collapse of the price of Brent, the potential for a global climate change agreement in paris and spiralling tensions with and within big energy producing regions. security at home and abroad is being challenged by chaos in the Middle-East, tense relations with Moscow and the threat of terrorism. an incoming government will have to deal with increasingly disparate security challenges where the boundaries between domestic and foreign policy are less discernible and the relationship between civil liberties and security is increasingly contested. in the uk, political risk features increasingly on the boardroom agenda. a series of global business leaders have found themselves mauled in parliament, and no business is immune to the impact of government policy. after this election, the ability of business to fulfil its potential to create value for customers, employees, investors and society as a whole will be even more dependent upon its effectiveness in engaging with decision-makers in and around government. on 7 May, just as i did in the spring of 1974, i will be anxiously watching results come in. peter snow s swing o meter may have given way to predictive algorithms but nail-biting re-counts, unexpected defeats and continuing political uncertainty will certainly keep me gripped as, i suspect it will you. The most unpredictable election since 1974 since then the environment has changed. Voters tribal loyalties to the two major parties have been eroded, with new parties rising and, sometimes, rapidly falling. Trust in the political establishment has been dented by repeated scandal, and over the past five years a stable coalition government has reassured voters that hung parliaments need not mean chaos. new political forces to be reckoned with have emerged, eroding the conservative/labour domination of Westminster and influencing the policy directions of mainstream parties. rapid globalisation and the legacy of the financial crisis have raised For all these fundamental changes, many of the policy questions that will be hotly discussed before and following will be surprisingly familiar to the 1974 voter. What place does the uk have in or out of the European project? What is the role of government in the economy? What should be the role of the private sector in our national health service? how should we control immigration? having been in government until July 2007 and served as an adviser and non-executive director to a number of companies in different sectors since then, i have seen the dramatic effect of the global financial crisis on the political and regulatory environment in which business operates. The Rt Hon. Patricia Hewitt Senior Adviser, FTI Consulting FTI Consulting LLP // 3

4 contents ThE state of ThE nation 5 TradiTion and processes 6-7 options For GoVErnancE 8-9 a party affair 10 conservative party 10 LaBour party 11 ThE LiBEraL democrats 12 uk independence party 13 scottish national party 14 ThE rest 15 ones To WaTch 16 LEadErship successors 17 MarGinaL seats 18 spotlight on ThE seven MosT MarGinaL seats in ThE uk 19 all about ThE issues? 20 ThE EconoMy 21 home affairs and immigration 24 immigration 24 security and criminality 24 ForEiGn policy and ThE Eu 25 security and defence 26 scotland and devolution 27 EnErGy and climate change 28 TransporT 29 EducaTion 30 LocaL GoVErnMEnT and housing 31 LiFEsTyLE 32 conclusion 33 ThE FTi consulting public affairs TEaM 34 public affairs and GoVErnMEnT relations our TEaM 35 FinanciaL services and ThE city 22 ThE nhs and healthcare 23 4 // FTI Consulting LLP

5 ThE state of ThE nation For the first time since the second World War, Britain has been governed during this parliament by a coalition of parties consisting of the conservative party, which holds 302 seats in the current parliament and are led by the prime Minister, david cameron, and the Liberal democrats, who have 56 seats and are led by the deputy prime Minister, nick clegg. This government will not fight the forthcoming election on 7 May as a coalition the parties are rather ostentatiously going their separate ways, and have been doing so for some time, even while in government. splits within that coalition have given rise to the biggest single problem the conservative party now faces in its attempt to retain government (and, preferably, govern alone). after five long years in power, because the Lib dems have blocked it, the Tories have failed despite the powers of incumbency to deliver overdue changes to the constituency boundaries on which elections are fought. This may sound like an arcane point, but as every gerrymanderer knows, it isn t it s vital to the outcome at the polls. Labour presently has a baked-in advantage in our constituencies, reliably winning smaller seats in the north of England while the Tories fruitlessly amass piles of votes in more populous southern seats which contribute nothing extra to their standing in the house of commons. consider this: at the 2005 General Election, Labour won with a three point lead over the Tories they took government with a majority of more than 60 seats. Five years later, in 2010, the conservatives had a seven point lead over Labour, but did not gain an overall majority at all. as the latest polls show, the two main parties are polling neck-and-neck in national terms. This really means that Labour is ahead. By how much is unclear, as there are so many intangible factors to be considered on a seat-by-seat basis candidate preference, willingness to vote for a minor party, and so forth but they re ahead. This is enhanced by the coinciding change in fortunes of the minor parties. The rise of the Eurosceptic united Kingdom independence party (ukip) splits the right, harming the conservatives. The remarkable decline of the Lib dems splits the left, helping Labour. The Lib dems face ignominious defeat at the polls nationwide, losing perhaps over half their seats. on the other hand, having won the European elections last year, ukip is presently polling at somewhere between 12 and 14 per cent. as they draw their support predominantly from those who might otherwise vote Tory, anything north of four or five per cent significantly impairs the prospects of conservative success in marginal seats. Taken together, these points are the challenges for cameron s conservatives in May. on the other hand, there are two major advantages in their favour. First, the economy is steadily improving. For an important slice of the population, quality of life has not improved for a very considerable time, producing a disconnection for some between economic numbers and their own sense of how things are going. yet the country as a whole increasingly feels like things are on the up and this is traditionally the most important electoral consideration in the united Kingdom, as elsewhere. The conservatives will repeat their messaging about their long term economic plan, the driving down of the deficit, and the addition of 1,000 jobs per day since they took office, right up until polling day. second, Ed Miliband, leader of the Labour party and putative future prime Minister, consistently underwhelms the public. cameron is regularly preferred as a leader in head-to-head polling and a desire to avoid disturbing that clarity may explain the apparent reluctance of the Tory campaign team to have head-to-head leader debates. predictably, these are therefore the twin themes of the Tory campaign. There s a minor party point that harms Labour, too north of the border, a resurgent scottish nationalist party, (snp), has rebounded remarkably from its recent defeat in the independence referendum and looks set to capture a swathe of Labour (and Lib dem) seats. This doesn t help the Tories much though, as an alliance between the right-of-centre conservatives and solid-left snp just won t happen although contrary to metropolitan London speculation, their fantastically bitter rivalry with Labour means a Lab/ snp coalition is pretty unlikely, too. Taken together, all of this means that the election will be close, and it is unlikely that a single party will form a majority government in its own right. another coalition of some form is very possible. ironically, despite their forthcoming beating, it is likely in my view that so long as the electoral mathematics add up, the chastened Liberal democrats will remain the most palatable (or least unpalatable) choice as a partner for both of the major parties. clegg s party has already demonstrated that they can be a party of government rather than just a party of protest. Therefore, in an election which everybody loses Labour not improving their vote, but gaining seats; the Tories getting more votes, but fewer seats; ukip getting a pile of votes distributed across the whole country, and almost no seats as a result; the Lib dems getting savaged, but still having more seats than ukip the perverse outcome may well be that the party which loses worst gets to stay in government with a new coalition partner. The ultimate irony? all of the other parties, which on this analysis will have lost out from it, campaigned to keep our electoral system during this parliament: only the Lib dems, perhaps the sole beneficiaries from it in May, wanted to change it. By Alex Deane Managing Director & Head of Public Affairs FTI Consulting LLP // 5

6 TradiTion and processes HUNG PARLIAMENT 3 2 COALITION 1 2 what is the role of GovernMent during an election Period? what will HaPPen if there is no Clear MaJority? purdah began on 30 March 2015, the day parliament was dissolved. Throughout this period strict restrictions apply to the civil service. Ministers must exercise care not to bind future governments and should avoid taking major policy decisions, entering into significant government contracts and making senior public appointments. in the event of a hung parliament these principles will continue to apply throughout any period of negotiation between the parties as they look to form a viable government. if decisions cannot wait, they may be handled by temporary arrangements or following relevant consultation with the opposition. convention dictates that in the event of no clear majority the incumbent will have the first option at forming a government - david cameron would likely remain in office and seek to hold on to power be that through building a coalition or attempting to govern as a minority. should the incumbent party not be able to command the confidence of the commons by passing a queen s speech, there will follow a flurry of inter-party discussions to try and establish formal coalitions or confidence and supply arrangements. recent examples suggest that previous prime Ministers only step aside when there is a clear choice of who should be put forward to the queen to form the next government. it remains to be seen whether or not these examples will be regarded in future as having established a constitutional convention. 6 // FTI Consulting LLP

7 ELECTION 7 MAY 2015 MAJORITY GOVERNMENT 1 MINORITY GOVERNMENT QUEENS SPEECH SELECT COMMITTEE CHAIR ELECTIONS SELECT COMMITTEE MEMBERS CONFIRMED SECOND ELECTION 3 4 what will the role of the Civil service be? what HaPPens if there is a Clear MaJority? during the negotiations, should the leaders of the parties seek the support of the civil service, it can only be organised by the cabinet secretary with the authorisation of the prime Minister. Throughout, the support must be provided on an equal basis to all parties and the civil service will continue to advise the incumbent government in the usual way. in the event of a clear majority, the process of forming the government will stick to the traditional course. if the incumbent is defeated in the polls, the prime Minister will tender his resignation and that of the government to the queen, advising who should be asked to form the next government. The date of the first meeting of the new parliament will be determined by a proclamation issued by the sovereign recent convention suggests this would fall on the first Wednesday following the election. The house of commons will meet to take the oath and elect a speaker and in the second week of parliament s sitting the queen s speech will outline the government s legislative programme. FTI Consulting LLP // 7

8 options For GoVErnancE The hegemony of two-party politics is over, for the immediate future at least. The British electorate has adjusted to the idea of a hung parliament following five years of stable coalition, but post-election negotiations are likely to be far more complicated this time around. not only has the impact of the coalition on the Liberal democrats introduced a much higher degree of caution among the minority parties, but with the margins looking so tight, negotiations will have to account for a number of possible allegiances, encompassing a much broader group of parties than in any previous election. Minority GovernMent The conservatives shied away from this in 2010, but would either of the main parties now consider forming a minority government? Both sides face internal opposition to any new coalition agreements but with the introduction of the Fixed Term parliaments act, which abolished the prerogative power of dissolution, there are new risks to consider. Whilst previously one could expect to see an intense bout of popular policy decisions before a second election was announced in the hope of securing a majority, the prime Minister s hands are now tied. requiring two-thirds support in the commons for another election, the incumbent party would perversely need to secure the support of the opposition to go to the polls early, or face the prospect of having to limp on as a minority government until put out of its misery by a vote of no confidence. don t be surprised however, if in the event of another hung parliament, the Fixed Term parliaments act is repealed as part of post-election negotiations. two Party Coalition in 2010 the Liberal democrats played kingmaker, but with the party predicted to lose half its seats it remains to be seen whether it will have the clout to support either of the major parties in a two-way coalition. despite ruling out a formal coalition, the snp may be Labour s best hope if they can secure a confidence and supply arrangement. Expected to win a significant majority of scotland s seats, the snp s success will be somewhat of a catch-22 for Labour since most of those seats they are expected to take are currently in Labour hands. south of the border there is strong anti-snp sentiment and Labour will be under pressure to avoid an arrangement which will undoubtedly involve significant policy benefits for scotland. 8 // FTI Consulting LLP

9 rainbow Coalition The assumption that no overall majority in May will result in a two-party coalition is no safe bet the multitude of smaller parties vying for a share of the vote will not only impact the number of seats gained by each of the main parties, but by diluting the vote share it has the potential to undermine the legitimacy of both Labour and the conservatives if they try to govern alone, or in coalition. The media have been quick to highlight the prospect of a coalition of the losers, with a strong possibility that come 8 May, negotiations will begin around forming a rainbow coalition. For Labour this could depend on a confidence and supply arrangement, involving the Lib dems, plaid cymru, the snp or the Greens. For the conservatives it becomes more problematic if the Lib dem party offered to lend its support once more, it certainly wouldn t accept a deal with ukip to bolster the numbers. The democratic unionist party offers another option, with some polls predicting it to return with up to ten seats. a Grand Coalition Given both age-old enmities and recent exchanges in the house of commons, such an outcome is almost unfathomable. Both leaders have dismissed any suggestion of such an arrangement, but with the electorate so split it could be argued to be the truest reflection of public sentiment. arguments persist that while both of the main parties have been keen to exacerbate their differences in the lead up to the election, sitting either side of the centre ground, there is significant crossover in policy agendas. not seen in the uk since the Government of national unity of 1945, it s highly unlikely to occur in FTI Consulting LLP // 9

10 a party affair Conservative Party To an extent, the conservative party has pinned any hope of an electoral victory on Lynton crosby s carefully choreographed and highly disciplined election campaign. There is no issue by issue approach for the conservatives, just one consistent message: the long term economic plan is working. This single focus approach is helpful for managing both external reactions but also internal divisions. The same key issues which have split the party time and again Europe and immigration have not only failed to go away under the coalition; they have become more pronounced and problematic. in particular, the unclear narrative on the European question is having a particular impact on those conservative Mps feeling the ukip threat in multiple marginal seats across the country. The electoral mathematics doesn t look good for cameron. despite a strong, steady stream of good data, the conservatives are failing to capitalise on the economic recovery, while the prime Minister s comparable popularity to his opposite number Ed Miliband does not seem to be solving the party s long term image problems. This is a particular problem given their failure to appeal to key swing groups such as women. cameron has come under fire for the lack of female representation within the party, with just 48 female conservative Mps and four female cabinet Ministers while the policy agenda has consistently trailed Labour in the polls with female voters, particularly mothers. all in all it seems unlikely that the conservatives will win the 325 seats required for an overall majority. it didn t manage it in 2010 and that was before ukip started to chip away at its votes. yet optimism remains and the 2014 party conference was positively buoyant. Conservative campaign pledges: Delivering a stable economy through the long term economic plan Helping people have the security of owning their own home Ensuring hardworking families have decent standards of living Securing a stronger NHS and education system david cameron cameron remains the most trusted party leader in the eyes of the electorate, even on the conservatives traditional weak spot the nhs. Time and time again the prime Minister has returned to the conservative line the economic plan is working, and in osborne s words, Britain is standing tall again. cameron has a number of success stories against which to leverage his position unemployment at an all-time low, increasingly encouraging growth figures and a shrinking budget deficit. But his reputation as a leader of the minority, for the minority, persists. support for him is widespread, but shallow: he does not motivate the faithful as others have done in the past, and there are no cameronites in the country to provide a base of support and proselytise for him. under his stewardship, the party membership has decreased by around 27,000. rumours abound that if the conservatives fail to secure a majority in May cameron will be forced to step down as leader of the party. however, if - as predicted there is no clear majority, then it is likely that cameron will retain his grip on party power throughout any period of negotiation. The prime Minister has proven that he is able to lead a coalition government and, as polling day nears and the reality of electoral uncertainty mounts, that fact may help to swing the votes of those sitting on the fence. 10 // FTI Consulting LLP

11 labour Party Whatever one s opinion about Ed Miliband as future prime Minister, the party s polling has consistently stood up. The opposing political parties have not been able to break the 35 per cent barrier that the party has, to its credit, held on to despite a supposedly unpopular leader at the helm. The reason for this consistency is the immoveable core vote and active grass roots that allow the party to withstand negative assets. Electoral geography also gives the party a significant advantage. it s no secret that there has been a shift to the left in party policy, compared with the Blair/Brown years. some may view it as cynical politics others as good opposition but taking the side of the disadvantaged voter in the face of public sector cuts has proved distinctive. it is also, importantly, a conviction of the leader. as the economy started to grow under osborne, a major line of attack was removed from Labour s arsenal, but the party adjusted quickly and has reemphasised differentiation in the hope of voter preference for more gradual cuts. The Labour party needs another 68 seats to secure an overall majority in the house of commons, and has a campaign focused around five promises: A strong economic foundation An NHS with the time to care Controls on immigration A country where the next generation can do better than the last The leadership has pinned its hopes on instilling a narrative of fear in the electorate: fear that the conservatives will destroy the nhs, and fear that cutting too severely and quickly will lead to harsh realities for the public. it s a powerful message, but only time will tell if the large and politically decisive uk middle class will buy it. having once been Labour s electoral bedrock, scotland is now a challenge and the majority target of 68 gained seats net will be much more difficult to achieve if the snp bandwagon holds up. some polls suggest around 40 seats could be taken from Labour and the Lib dems in scotland it is unlikely to be as much as that but it s a significant threat to a potential Labour majority. if the party does enter into government (in one form or another) it will have a significant job on its hands to repair negative perceptions of it held by uk business. Business doesn t represent the multifaceted electorate, but it s vital to have on side. Higher living standards for working families Ed MiLiBand Miliband is not a popular Labour prime Ministerial choice, polling behind neil Kinnock in both his 1987 and 1992 campaigns. The paradox of steady party popularity coupled with leader unpopularity could come back to bite on polling day. But the party know their leader is not their greatest asset and as such are focusing on the issues especially the nhs. compare this to cameron who is front and centre of the conservative campaign in the knowledge that he s more popular than Miliband. But Miliband has played a clever hand, downplaying his unpopularity by making light of it and stressing his convictions. The hope is that when it comes to polling day the Labour base will hold up and that the left will stay united in the face of a fragmented right. FTI Consulting LLP // 11

12 a party affair the liberal democrats after decades in the wilderness, the Liberal democrats are for the first time facing a General Election with a record in government to defend. From a party of protest, to a party of power, the 2010 to 2015 journey has been a remarkable one: the Liberal democrat s electoral success in May will depend largely on how it presents its record as part of the coalition. it is undeniable that the Liberal democrats have proven resilient in the face of public disapproval a number of policy u-turns and compromises to the conservatives have left approval of the party, and its leader, consistently low, lingering around or below the ten per cent point for most of this parliament. With 56 seats to protect, the Liberal democrats will be keen to maintain their history of capitalising on incumbency. The party often fares well in individual seats it already holds, but it has a mammoth task to convince voters nationally of their credibility. since party conference season passed, the leadership has sought to distance itself from the conservative party. Messages have had a defensive focus, emphasising what they have stopped the conservatives doing rather than championing Lib dem achievements. in an election characterised by a split vote across the left and right of the political spectrum, leader nick clegg is keen to highlight the position the Liberal democrats supposedly hold as a party of moderation at the centre ground. one question the party will have to consider is who they get into bed with should they hold the key to power. The present coalition has much to boast about, presiding over an economy in positive growth and with a string of achievements co-credited to both parties. But there is tension between the parties within it, especially on the backbenches, which could force the hand of any coalition negotiations. The question still lingers over whether the Liberal democrats would prop up a Labour-led government while Ed Miliband is a leader. This all depends on two obvious things: the number of seats maintained by the Liberal democrats in May, and which of the larger parties does better given that clegg s 2010 pledge to speak first to the party with the most seats seams a precedent which the party is likely to follow. For the Lib dems, optimistic commentators have suggested that the number might drop only to the forties, whilst others have suggested that a decimation of the seats will cut the Liberal democrats to the twenties. nick clegg deputy prime Minister nick clegg, like his party, has suffered in the polls since the previous election. in the same way Ed Miliband s personality polls badly, clegg faces an image problem and questions are being raised about his future as leader of the party. While a leadership contest in the Liberal democrats is certainly not imminent, reports suggest that several Mps say there is an unspoken assumption that he will stand down as Liberal democrat leader in the next parliament - whatever the result in May. polling has suggested that clegg could lose his sheffield hallam seat to the Labour party, which has only fuelled the Labour campaign to oust him. if he does maintain his seat, which should not be ruled out, then contrary to recent media speculation, we can expect him to see out another parliamentary term, if reports from his aides are to be trusted. 12 // FTI Consulting LLP

13 uk independence Party ukip s journey to the political mainstream began in 1999, when they obtained three European parliament seats. Their political history has since then been one of peaks and troughs, albeit with a generally upward trajectory: their winning performance in the European elections in 2014, coupled with successes in council elections and two Westminster by-elections throughout this parliamentary term, has cemented their position in this election as a significant challenger party. nigel Farage s commitment has been an important mainstay for the party and its supporters, rocked by the increased scrutiny it has faced. Various revelations about the behaviour and attitudes of particular party members have emerged over the past year, threatening ukip s credibility, but perhaps because of their out-of-the-mainstream, populist positioning this seems not to have had too adverse an effect on its poll performance, which consistently floats between ten and fifteen per cent - outperforming the Liberal democrats since ukip must convince the public of their credibility when it comes to offering robust policy across the spectrum, rather than just their platform on immigration and Britain s Eu membership. describing ukip as a classical liberal party, communications lead Gawain Towler recently released 100 reasons to vote ukip, a varied, but non-comprehensive overview of the party s agenda. Towler s reasons form part of an ongoing tussle between libertarians and more socially conservative populists which often goes unnoticed by the political mainstream but becomes more significant as ukip s influence rises. What has not gone unnoticed is their growing membership, often at the expense of the conservative party, whose defectors are untroubled by the conservative claim, vote Farage, get Miliband -or even think increasingly that they re both the same. ukip has upped its game when it comes to targeting seats, understanding the drawbacks of First-past-the-post as an electoral system for its chances of success. The party has intelligently focused its efforts on a limited number of constituencies, where the collapse of support for the Liberal democrats and conservatives means the seats are most vulnerable to them. included in this is heywood and Middleton, where they came within a whisker of winning at the recent by-election. in some seats now, ukip isn t splitting the conservative vote the conservatives are splitting theirs. consider the narrowness of the band of options for ukip: winning two seats (i.e. what they already have) would be a bad result, whilst a sum total of four what they are projected to gain - would be excellent. however, the real impact of the people s army in 2015 is what it does to others. in many southern seats, the ukip vote threatens to be the difference between the conservatives managing to hang on to marginals and losing them to Labour. in the immediate term, facing a hung parliament, the political leaders may need to bargain even more than in 2010 to form a functioning government. past lines about never doing a deal with the conservatives whilst led by david cameron are now conspicuous by their absence from Farage s talking points. nigel FaraGE For many, nigel Farage is ukip and ukip is nigel Farage. There is no doubt that the charismatic leader has been a huge part of ukip s ascendency, leading ukip to its first victory in a nationwide uk election at the 2014 European election. his outsider telling it like it is status appeals to an electorate dissatisfied with the three traditional parties and a media who are happy to buy into personality politics. Farage has already said that if he doesn t win the Thanet seat he will step down as ukip leader. FTI Consulting LLP // 13

14 a party affair scottish national Party 2014 will long be remembered as a milestone year for the snp. despite losing the scottish referendum they ran a far tighter race than many predicted. Their support base has soared and in 2014 alone the party membership more than tripled from 27,000 to over 90,000. one in ten scottish adults is now a member of the party, making the snp the third largest party in the uk by membership. To some extent, the referendum has legitimised the party to a broader scottish audience, addressing persistent credibility issues and providing a platform from which to launch a significant General Election campaign. The polls vary on how many of scotland s 59 seats the snp can expect to gain in May. The most conservative estimates suggest few more than 20, but the more optimistic have predicted figures in the late forties. The majority of those seats expected to fall into snp hands are traditional Labour strongholds. The snp has been conscious to target old Labour voters with their social democratic ideology, mixed with messages for a dynamic and progressive vision for scotland. The scottish Labour party has taken years to adjust to this having been out of government in scotland since a perceived failure by Ed Miliband and the Westminster branch to engage with scottish Labour in the lead up to the referendum has helped the snp s cause. consider this, without the potential risk of an immediate exit from the uk there could be more than a few non-independence supporting, pro-scotland and anti-westminster establishment voters that will view the snp as a viable alternative to a lacklustre Labour. The snp s message is focused on anti-austerity a clear differentiator and appeal to traditional Labour heartlands. policies such as the 50p rate of tax and a combative stance to keeping the conservatives out of power has done much to enhance this appeal with the scottish electorate. The snp will have to be careful though if they do end up holding the balance of power and use it in a way that is viewed as overly obstructive and regressive, then the party could feel the impact in the 2016 scottish parliament elections. nicola sturgeon scottish First Minister nicola sturgeon is a powerhouse and was the natural successor to her friend and mentor alex salmond. sturgeon has enjoyed high trust ratings among the electorate from the outset. she has a reputation for being serious and straightforward to work with which should come in handy for the task ahead: securing more powers for scotland and taking her party into the 2016 scottish election. Jim Murphy s election as leader of scottish Labour has done little to dampen the snp s electoral hopes as they continue to poll stably. salmond will not be the snps Westminster leader but he will crave influence which could be problematic for internal snp politics. 14 // FTI Consulting LLP

15 ThE rest democratic unionist Party northern ireland s democratic unionist party (dup) is currently the fourth largest party in Westminster with eight incumbent Mps and may well be in a position to prop up a coalition of the right should the opportunity arise in May. The dup have enjoyed electoral success in recent general elections, and increasingly within local councils, a unionist tide is growing in northern ireland. This trend has led the dup and the ulster unionist party (uup) to join forces in a formal pan-unionist pact for this election. This alliance aims to maximise the unionist voice in Westminster, through fielding only one pro-union candidate in up to four of the eighteen northern irish parliamentary constituencies. on this basis, some polls show the dup returning with up to ten Mps, making them an attractive coalition option to prop up a conservative-led government through coalition or confidence and supply. Likely issues for the dup could include the costs on business from reforms to the electricity market and upholding The stormont house agreement. ukip too recognise the potential for support from the dup to propel them into an attractive position to get into bed with the conservatives. Leader nigel Farage, said the party could form part of a coalition government with the conservatives and the dup, stating that in that circumstance there would be some points of agreement between us and the dup. however the dup have been left out of the recently announced seven-way TV debate despite having more Mps than four or the seven parties invited to debate, most obviously the snp and plaid cymru. Plaid CyMru With three Mps currently representing the party in the house of commons, plaid cymru will seek a greater mandate to stand up for Wales in Westminster. Leader Leanne Wood has grand ambitions for the election, pledging to join other anti-austerity fringe parties in the hope that collectively they can rebalance the power in Westminster. The level of dissolution within the Liberal democrats in Wales has bolstered the commitment of plaid in some seats. however, despite the Lib dems polling at six per cent, there is little appetite for plaid s vision for Wales. a BBc poll showed just six per cent of the Welsh population eager to see a greater degree of devolution. The party s support too has slipped plaid cymru is no longer the official opposition in the Welsh assembly, polling at around ten per cent, behind Labour, the conservatives and ukip. Green Party The past two years have seen relatively significant gains for the Green party, with support increasing three-fold. however, consistently polling at around the 6.5 per cent mark they are unlikely to add to their current seat in Brighton. With twelve key seats in their sights the Greens are likely to have the greatest impact on the electoral outcome by splitting the share of the vote in particularly tight Labour and conservative contests. if elected, the Greens will abolish the bedroom tax or spare bedroom subsidy, end austerity, return the railways to public hands, scrap tuition fees, phase out the use of fossil fuel and increase the minimum wage to 10 an hour by 2020 quite a policy agenda. during a now infamous radio interview, leader natalie Bennett was backed in to a corner over funding for the party s plans to build 500,000 social rented homes, seriously denting her already questionable credibility amongst the electorate. FTI Consulting LLP // 15

16 ones To WaTch With 86 Mps standing down at the General Election there will be an influx of new talent across all parties. in recent years we have seen newly elected Members move quickly up their party ranks and five of those currently attending cabinet were elected for the first time in KiT MaLThousE, north WEsT hampshire nusrat Ghani, WEaLdEn craig MacKinLay, south ThanET christine JardinE, Gordon VicToria ayling, GrEaT GriMsBy Defending a conservative majority of 18,583. He is former Deputy Mayor of London for policing and for Business and Enterprise. Currently a Member of the London assembly representing West central. Defending a conservative majority of 17,179. Ghani previously worked at the BBc World service and on policy for health charities including Breakthrough Breast cancer and age concern. Defending a conservative majority of A semi-marginal conservative seat, Mackinlay is up against ukip leader nigel Farage. A former leader of ukip himself, Mackinlay is seen as key on the Eu question. A relatively safe Lib dem seat, Jardine will defend incumbent Malcolm Bruce s majority of A journalist by trade the former special advisor to nick clegg should do well if she succeeds in defeating alex salmond. Challenging a Labour majority of 714. Ayling contested the same seat for the conservatives in having defected in 2013 she is now a key ally of nigel Farage. In 2010 UKIP secured just 6.2 per cent of the vote in this seat. stephen KinnocK, aberavon polly BiLLinGTon ThurrocK sir KEir starmer, holborn & st pancras alex salmond, Gordon darren hall, BrisToL WEsT In a safe Labour seat, Kinnock will hope to defend hywel Francis 11,039 majority. Husband of the danish prime Minister and son of former Labour leader neil Kinnock, he formerly worked at the British council, World Economic Forum and the Global Leadership and Technology Exchange. Challenging a conservative majority of 92. Close advisor to Ed Miliband and media director for his leadership campaign in 2010, the former BBc journalist will face a tough campaign in one of the most important election battlegrounds. Replacing retiring incumbent Frank dobson Mp, he seeks to defend Labour s 9942 majority. A former Director of public prosecutions who oversaw the prosecution of chris huhne, starmer has been touted as a future attorney General. Currently held by retiring Liberal democrat Mp sir Malcolm Bruce, salmond will hope to return to Westminster by overturning the incumbent party s 6748 majority. Salmond will be fighting to ensure that the snp secures its position in Westminster. Hall contests Bristol West against incumbent Mp Lib dem stephen Williams who carries a majority of 11,366 and Labour s candidate Thangam debbonaire. In the 2014 local elections the Green s got the most votes within the seat, suggesting it could now be a three-way marginal. 16 // FTI Consulting LLP

17 LEadErship successors With so much at stake for each of the leaders, we take a look at potential changes in party leadership post-election. Boris Johnson, Mayor of London ThErEsa May, home secretary GEorGE osborne, chancellor of ThE ExchEquEr TiM Farron Mp For WEsTMorLand and LonsdaLE The London Mayor will seek his return to Westminster in May in the safe conservative seat of uxbridge, where incumbent conservative Mp, John randall secured 48.3 per cent of the vote in speculation has long been rife around Boris s political ambitions, and there have already been calls from conservative Mps to make Boris - the one nation Tory and one of Britain s most popular politicians - central to the conservative election effort. The longest serving holder of her current cabinet post for 50 years, she has been the Mp for Maidenhead since a member of the shadow cabinet from 1999 to 2010, including stints as shadow secretary of state for Education and Employment, shadow secretary of state for Work and pensions, and shadow Leader of the house of commons, May became the first female chairman of the party in despite a recent feud with downing street she is still considered to be a frontrunner in any leadership battle to succeed david cameron. Elected to his seat in 2001, osborne became the youngest conservative Mp in the house of commons. his first frontbench appointment came in 2003 as part of the shadow Economic affairs team, quickly followed by his appointment as shadow chief secretary to the Treasury. he served as campaign manager for david cameron s leadership campaign. in 2010 he took up his role of chancellor of Exchequer, in one of the most testing economic environments of recent history. Farron became the Mp for Westmorland and Lonsdale in 2005, ending the conservatives 95 year rule, in what was seen as a key success for the Liberal democrats. he served as president of the party from 2010 to January 2015 and since the start of the coalition has positioned himself to the left of the party s leadership, a move that has won favour among activists keen to maintain distance from the conservatives. if nick clegg loses his seat in May, many see Farron as the man to rebuild the party. chuka umunna, shadow secretary of state For BusinEss, innovation and skills andy BurnhaM, shadow secretary of state For health yvette cooper, shadow home secretary douglas carswell Mp For clacton The Labour Mp for streatham since 2010, chuka umunna has risen quickly up the ranks. umunna was a key member of Ed Miliband s leadership campaign team and within five months of becoming an Mp was appointed parliamentary private secretary to the party leader. since taking up his post in the shadow cabinet, umunna has spoken out on the benefits of immigration to the uk, the need for better regulation of the financial services industry and investment in schools. considered to have Blairite tendencies, umunna has been cautious not to make any public pronouncements of leadership ambitions. a former parliamentary researcher and special advisor, andy Burnham was first elected as the Mp for Leigh in he entered the cabinet in 2007 as chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown before being promoted to secretary of state for culture, Media and sport. having been appointed secretary of state for health in 2009, Burnham put himself forward as a successor to Gordon Brown, but only secured 10.4 per cent of the vote. he has championed Labour s plans to integrate social care into the nhs, winning favour with the trade unions and party rank and file. yvette cooper was called to the government just two years after being elected as an Mp in the safe Labour seat pontefract and castleford in she has held a number of government positions during her political career, including chief secretary to the Treasury, secretary of state for Work and pensions, shadow Foreign secretary and her current post of shadow home secretary. Familiar with the party machine, parliament and with extensive experience in the house of commons she has been tipped as Labour s first female leader. after defecting from the conservatives in 2014, douglas carswell became ukips first Mp after retaining his clacton seat in a by-election. political commentators have touted carswell as Farage s replacement after the leader indicated that he will step down as leader if he fails to win his south Thanet seat. carswell has become known at Westminster for being an outspoken advocate of political reform and action to clean up British politics. he has proposed radical changes to force politicians to answer outwardly to the electorate, leading the daily Telegraph to nominate him Briton of the year 2009, and spectator readers voted him their choice as parliamentarian of the year in the same year. FTI Consulting LLP // 17

18 MarGinaL seats Little about this election is certain. What makes it so unpredictable is the potential for a split vote across both sides of the political spectrum. What we do know is that, as usual, marginal seats will prove to be fundamental in determining who will become the next prime Minister. Marginal seats are those which require a swing of five per cent or less for the incumbent party to lose. There are 650 individual contests for seats in the house of commons, 194 of which are considered marginal. in 12 of the 17 elections since 1950, fewer than 1 in 10 seats changed hands from one party to another. To secure a majority and avoid the inevitable compromises of coalition negotiations, both major parties must add seats to the current total they hold, 20 for the conservatives and 68 for Labour, an outcome few would predict with much confidence. on the right ukip are polling close to the conservatives in around 10 seats, making it possible that they will add to their current two Mps. similarly, a three way contest on the left between the Green party, the snp and Labour, will potentially cost Labour a majority and as some polls suggest, up to 52 seats in scotland. 194 Most MarGinal seats in britain, needing up to a Five Per Cent swing to CHanGe Hands.* // FTI Consulting LLP

19 spotlight on ThE seven MosT MarGinaL seats in ThE uk solihull lib dem majority 175 a target conservative seat, solihull is one of the most marginal seats in the Midlands. incumbent Liberal democrat Mp Lorely Burt who first won the seat in 2005 is unlikely to retain it with the polls projecting a conservative gain for candidate Julian Knight. BoLTon WEsT labour majority 92 The fourth most marginal seat in the uk, sitting Labour Mp Julie hilling is likely to have a close fight against conservative christopher Green. despite a 6 per cent swing to the conservatives in 2010, Labour retained the seat, and the polls indicate another slim Labour majority. north WarWicKshirE Conservative majority 54 The most marginal conservative seat in the country turned blue in 2010 after being held by Labour since as sitting Mp dan Byles steps down, and just a 0.1 per cent swing is required to lose the seat, Labour s Mike o Brien is in with a good chance of regaining his seat. oxford WEsT and abingdon hendon Conservative majority 176 a staunch Labour seat since 1997, in 2010 a 4 per cent swing saw conservative Matthew offord win the seat from andrew dismore. The two go head-tohead once more, and it is likely to be a struggle. polls are predicting a Labour gain, but a late surge in the polls for the Green party could yet keep dismore out. Conservative majority 106 The unpopularity of the Liberal democrats is likely to make the contest for the seat one-sided. conservative Mp nicola Blackwood is predicted to build on the seven point swing she gained in 2010 unseating former Liberal democrat Mp Evan harris. Labour has never held the seat, and continue to poll badly. camborne and redruth hampstead and KiLBurn Conservative majority 66 Whilst a conservative hold is predicted in this cornish constituency, concern is mounting over how smaller parties could disrupt the outcome. Both 2010 candidates are standing again; conservative Mp George Eustice and former Liberal democrat Mp Julia Goldsworthy against the backdrop of growing popularity for ukip. Eustice needs just a 0.1 per cent swing away to lose the seat. polls predict a slim conservative hold. labour majority 42 ThurrocK Conservative majority 92 hampstead and Kilburn is the most marginal seat in Britain. The incumbent Mp Glenda Jackson announced in 2011 that she was stepping down after more than 20 years in parliament. The polls predict a Labour hold with their candidate Tulip siddiq, the first Bengali woman to sit on camden council. siddiq goes up against conservative simon Marcus and Liberal democrat Maajid nawaz. Thurrock is number two on Labour s national target list. The seat was won with a swing of 6.6 per cent from Labour in 2010 by Jackie doyle-price. having built up a successful profile as a constituency Mp, her main challenger is a senior Labour figure, polly Billington, a close ally to Ed Miliband. however ukip s rise in the area is thrusting candidate Tim aker in, making it a three-way marginal. The party now has six seats in the council and are polling in some cases higher than Labour. FTI Consulting LLP // 19

20 all about ThE issues? The battleground so far for this election has been set. The nhs, immigration and the economy are the key issues the parties have focused on to win over the hearts and minds of the British electorate, and importantly their core voters. The nhs is fraught with issues, but most seriously, a funding crisis in an era of spending cuts. an aggregate of around 40 per cent of the population mark the nhs as the most important issue to them, the highest level of concern since april consistently scoring better on the issue than the conservatives, debating health plays to Labour s strengths and shores up the party s natural left-of-centre vote. in June 2014, immigration began to poll as one of the most important issues to the electorate. The level of concern had increased to 38 per cent from 33 per cent in 2013, in line with the rise of ukip. ukip has made the issue front and centre of its campaign, giving voice to a rising sentiment among the working class that immigration is harmful to jobs and the economy. Many polls hitting the headlines are publicising the intended voting patterns of a representative sample of the entire uk population. They are interesting to monitor trending movements after key events, but this can have little relevance when transposing these percentages into the expected number of electoral seats for that political party, so caution must be exercised when reading the polls. in the following section we take a closer look at the key issues defining this election campaign and the main policy agendas across the parties. The nhs, ImmIgraTIon and The economy are The key Issues The parties have FoCused on Much the same is true of the conservatives with regards to the economy: they poll better when voters are asked about economic competence and the issue is historically more important to those on the right. as employment has risen and the deficit has reduced, concern over the economy has fallen 13 per cent since 2013, leading the conservatives to believe (and persistently argue) that it s long term economic plan is working. The party has shaped its agenda around its successes on saving the country from a double dip recession and against many odds, stimulating sustained economic growth. For example, in scotland, FTi s own polling shows there is a concentration of voters in many electoral seats such that although the snp is only polling at 3 per cent nationally, their support could result in over 40 Mps being elected. conversely, ukip are attracting well over twice as many supporters across the uk, but their supporters are more geographically spread out and are likely to only yield a couple of Mps. in summary, it s not how many voters one has nationally; it s where they re clustered. in polls, respondents are asked who they ve decided to vote for, or are most likely to vote for, at that moment in time. however, the electorate could still change their minds. With such a huge number of fickle voters, key public events such as the televised debates could have a dramatic impact come polling day. 20 // FTI Consulting LLP

21 ThE EconoMy according to conservative campaign strategists, a strong economy is paramount to conservative electoral success. obr forecasts from the March 2015 Budget show that growth forecasts have been revised upwards for 2015 from 2.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent and in 2016 from 2.2 per cent to 2.3 per cent before pushing to 2.4 per cent in osborne was handed a boost with the reduction in the price of oil and the consumer spending power this developed. he was also handed a boost with reductions in debt interest payments, reductions in welfare payments and the sale of government bank assets and shares all of which will be used to reduce debt as a percentage of Gdp. public sector debt is now expected to fall from a peak of 80.4 per cent of Gdp this year to 80.2 per cent to 71.6 per cent in , with the claim that austerity will end a year earlier than previously anticipated. unemployment is of course a primary economic indicator and is expected to plateau at around per cent for much of the next parliament. if conservative campaign strategists are right in their perception that voters will back a party with strong economic credentials, then the conservatives should be seen to be on a strong electoral footing: despite osborne s promise to pay off the structural deficit by 2015, which now seems will not be achieved until all parties are committed to tackling the deficit: but the method by which this is to be done represents some significant distance between the two largest parties. This difference masks a point that by mutual consent goes largely undiscussed in front of an electorate tired of public spending constraints that the next parliament is facing a tougher round of spending consolidation, no matter who is in downing street. robert chote, obr chairman, summarised public spending projections in the next parliament under present conservative plans as a rollercoaster deeper real cuts in the second and third years than we have seen to date, followed by the sharpest increase in spending for a decade in the fifth. The snp, Greens and plaid cymru have been vocal in opposing austerity but they can get away with such rhetoric without the responsibility of government. Looking at the polls, the economic competency ratings of osborne vs Balls indicate a clear preference when it comes to managing the economy it s therefore no coincidence that the economy does not feature front and centre of a Labour campaign. yet competency ratings are predominantly based on past and current perceptions of trust and track record not enough consideration is given to the type of economy that each party has in mind. This debate matters because it goes to the heart of discussing the nature or more precisely the level of state involvement in our economy. The Labour party intends to mould the economic debate by tying the notion of a strong economy to the idea of a fairer economy specifically targeting low wages and zero hours contracts, as well as small business start-up relief and support. The productivity of the uk workforce has been a theme that the shadow Business secretary, chuka umunna, has tried to push - naturally, since observers conclude that whilst other indicators are favourable, uk productivity has failed to improve under this government. We re all waiting for a much anticipated rise in interest rates something which andy haldane - a member of the Bank s Monetary policy committee (Mpc) recently poured cold water on. how the next government copes with potential homeowner difficulties from this will be important for credibility. questions over currency valuation are paramount and the uk s balance of payments is concerning to some economic commentators. neither party has so far really addressed this point. The notion of currency devaluation is slim but uk exporters are suffering with the high valuation of sterling and that makes long term sustainable growth harder to achieve. The cole review, to be published after the election, will likely provide significant content for Labour party export policy. a coalition of the left is one of the biggest worries to some business leaders a weak government, held to ransom under a confidence and supply agreement with the snp could give investors the jitters. Miliband may change his interventionist rhetoric should he enter government but given all that has come from him until now he will have to work very hard to please business especially if he s to maintain the 2.4 per cent increase in investment growth forecast for not enough ConsIderaTIon Is given To The Type of economy ThaT each party has In mind one of the policies that s had the strongest political cut through has been osborne s northern powerhouse which seeks to counter potential perception of conservative austerity in marginal seats. Working towards a more balanced economy in geographical terms is something that will likely dominate the next parliament. despite relatively strong domestic growth figures and projections, inevitable Eurozone unpredictability looms large over whichever party is next in government. FTI Consulting LLP // 21

22 FinanciaL services and ThE city it was always going to be a difficult parliament for financial services following the upheaval at the end of the last Labour administration. The extent of architectural reform has been significant, and the chancellor has been forced to bat for London in Brussels on more occasions than he would wish. at home, we are likely to see renewed confidence amongst increasingly assertive regulators and investigators who have been given license to rid the industry of perceived bad practice. The tax practices of financial service companies will continue to face intense scrutiny something on which Labour and the conservatives can agree. personal finance product development will bring cheap, exciting and, hopefully, socially responsible benefits for the consumer. it s likely that support measures that encourage further competition in banking in business and personal capacity will be a focus for a new government. providers that stay one step ahead of the regulators should beware though: as we saw with payday loan caps, government has the regulatory teeth to clamp down on what it sees as irresponsible behaviour. FinTech is strongly championed by the Treasury at present how new technologies (via apple, Facebook, Google and other start ups) become ingrained in personal finance will be a growing theme that will be closely watched by politicians and regulators. The payments system regulator (psr) will find its feet in the new parliament and this could have far reaching implications as it looks to achieve the objectives of innovation, competition and promoting interests of service users. as well as payment system operators, the psr will also have oversight of payment services providers using that system (such as a high street bank), and the infrastructure providers. The regulator presently has a remit over some but not all players in the payments market, which has caused controversy and is likely to alter in the coming years. The implications of the pension reforms that came into place at the end of this parliament will start to be felt by the new government. potential hiccups could be very damaging for the conservative party specifically in ensuring that consumers are given appropriate advice before using their annuity. as for wholesale markets, the development of a capital Markets union (cmu) will have the backing of regulators and politicians as London could benefit substantially. however, perceptions of the next government by Brussels will be important in ensuring that this advantage can be taken. Brexit potential will not endear a uk government to Brussels, but the ongoing soft lobbying presence of commissioner Jonathan hill will help. The next government will have to deal with a significant amount of implementation of Brussels policy that s been in the pipeline for years such as psdii. a strong financial sector is paramount for the next government of whatever colour; despite perceptions of antibusiness rhetoric, Ed Balls does recognise this. a vibrant sector that pays its way in line with growth should be their party s motto. if parliament is hung again, the space for campaign driven politicians to target financial services will be increasingly viable and government and regulators will potentially be more interventionist if Labour is in downing street. as March s Budget showed through the increase of the bank levy to 0.21 per cent, coupled with Ed Ball s commitment to fund spending commitments in a similar vein, the sector is seen as a good and costfree target in electoral terms. it will be important for financial service providers to emphasise that, if long term sustainable growth is to be realised, they cannot be used as a bottomless cash cow to meet public spending policy commitments. a healthy financial sector makes for healthy public services. 22 // FTI Consulting LLP

23 ThE nhs and healthcare discourse in health has focused around two key themes: the systems through which healthcare is administered and the use of those services. questions of funding, privatisation and the integration of health and social care nationwide have been dominant. For the conservatives, the tactic has been one of avoidance, as they seek to avoid shedding votes over the issue. Labour, on the other hand, see this as their strongest suit, positioning themselves as the guardians of the nhs, ardently fighting against both real and perceived privatisation and promising to invest an additional 2.5 billion of funds a year in healthcare, on top of the conservative s 2 billion spending plans. The promise of additional funding is a pledge that crosses party lines, but the more pertinent question, and the one most likely to shape policy negotiations, is where the funds will come from. Labour will use the mansion tax as a key source, supplemented by a clamp down on corporate tax avoidance and a new tax on tobacco companies. The Lib dems will increase taxes on high earners in their bid to secure an extra 1 billion a year, while ukip have promised an extra 3 billion funded by leaving the Eu and through middle management cuts. prime Minister s questions has witnessed some of the most brutal attacks on the subject of healthcare with Ed Miliband s plans to weaponise the nhs a fruitful source of conservative attack lines. conversely, david cameron has come under fire for his perceived failure to save a&e units across the country was a pivotal year for secretary of state for health, Jeremy hunt. The alleged crisis in a&e departments nationwide has shattered his carefully crafted image as the champion of patient care, while the debate around competition and the need for efficiency in the provision of care have brought the issue of privatisation to the fore. With a third of nhs contracts awarded to private firms between april 2013 and august 2014, shadow health secretary, andy Burnham has been tugging on the electoral heart strings with his pledge to repeal the health and social care act and launch a ten-year plan for health and care. Built around opposition to competition for nhs contracts, anti-private sector rhetoric continues to dominate the Labour agenda. in reality, there wouldn t be wholesale repeal of the act, but provisions would be put in place to allow the nhs to return to its default position. Burnham will be more concerned with part three of the act, which relates to competition. This could be heavily amended and Monitor s duties to promote competition repealed. Burnham may look to repeal section 75 which allows for regulations to be made on procurement, choice and competition, although other provisions may be put in place to avoid procurement going completely unregulated. The question of the nhs in Wales has been used to full effect by the conservative party as they try to undermine Labour s position as the champions of the national health service. The decision taken by Welsh Government Labour Ministers to cut health funding, by what the ifs now estimates to be 8.6 per cent in real terms, while the conservative led government in England has protected nhs funding, has given rise to allegations of gross mismanagement by Labour. cameron hasn t held back, stating: Frankly what we have in our nhs in Wales is a scandal and it s a scandal that s entirely the responsibility of the Labour party who are running the Welsh assembly Government. devolution has been front and centre in the debate around improving quality of care and more closely integrating health and social care services to try and ease pressure on hospital departments. Greater Manchester devolution has been FronT and CenTre In The debate around ImprovIng QualITy of Care has been granted full control of its 6 billion health and social care budget from april 2016, but while shadow chancellor Ed Balls has stated that Labour would continue to devolve more control of nhs budgets to the regions, andy Burnham has insisted that a model must be developed that can be applied nationally to avoid the disintegration of the nhs into a so-called swiss cheese model. he has heavily stressed the importance of whole person commissioning, single year of care budgets and accountable providers. Whatever the outcome in May, the nhs will continue to dominate debate and headlines, particularly if the electoral outcome prevents the governing party from implementing policy that is central to their agenda. FTI Consulting LLP // 23

24 home affairs and immigration immigration a crucial battleground between and within political parties - immigration policy will remain a top priority for both a conservative party threatened by ukip and a Labour party often at odds with elements of its blue-collar constituency. For david cameron, the issue will be closely linked to affirming a tough stance on access to benefits (on which the European commission has recently taken the uk to court) and on Eu free movement rules. a February 2014 survey suggested the majority of the electorate (70 per cent) think that immigration should be either reduced or stopped completely (against 20 per cent for keeping at the current level and 4 per cent for increased). The relatively high crossparty grassroots support for tougher immigration laws has driven all mainstream party commitments on the subject. on the right, Mps have been keen to portray immigration as the source of societal concerns e.g. criminality and unemployment. on the contrary, the Labour party continues to tie the question of immigration to low wages and abusive employment conditions, drawing the limelight back to stagnating living standards. as a 2010 commitment which the conservative led government has clearly and squarely failed to deliver i.e. cut immigration to the tens of thousands the issue has served an Ed Miliband keen to further entrench the ukip/conservative divide. Bringing net-migration to below 100,000 a year from 242,000 by removing access to benefits seems as optimistic as successfully renegotiating Eu freedom of movement with a strongly reluctant Germany. however, whilst conservative intentions fall short in terms of realism, Labour commitments in the area remain vague at best focusing on stronger border controls and smarter targets to avoid disincentivising highly skilled immigration. similarly Liberal democrats would re-introduce exit check at borders and ensure Eu migrants deserve any benefits they receive. drawing inspiration from australia, nigel Farage s party has to ensure that it capitalises on conservative/labour voter dissatisfaction on the subject which remains a fundamental and core element of ukip s appeal. using a combination of a point-based selective immigration system and higher deportations (intra and extra Eu) based on English language tests, ukip aims to reduce net immigration to 50,000 a year. against the tide and apparent popularity of anti-immigration policy, both the Greens and plaid cymru would facilitate asylum seeking while the snp would devolve control of the issue. Business and university leaders have voiced concern with over-zealous restrictions and this will need to be accounted for by the next government. security and CriMinality regular headlines covering the uk s security services operations in particular data collection and media attention around young Britons leaving for syria have compelled mainstream parties to adopt tough stances. persistently arising proposals to encourage commercial ventures to capture, collect and store personal communication data are unlikely to stop in the new parliament, whoever forms government. driven by the civil service s desire to increase telecommunication interception capabilities a new administration will need to face the issue which both preceding administrations have failed to put to bed. The Labour party has accused the coalition government of weakening Terrorism prevention and investigation Measures (TpiMs) and other counter-terrorism powers. The shadow home secretary yvette cooper has focused on walking a fine line between pragmatic support for intelligence agencies which are striving to keep pace with changing and emerging technology and popular and vague - calls for improved oversight of their activities. on the other side of the aisle, home secretary Theresa May supported the outlawing of groups inciting hatred and combating disruptive public speaking by backing Extremism disruption orders (Exdos). With little to gain and much to lose when it comes to tackling anti-terrorism measure, mainstream parties would...mainstream parties would rather make TheIr mark on security on The streets rather make their mark on security on the streets. Labour s pledge to scrap police and crime commissioners and increase funding for frontline policing are direct challenges to both a key coalition policy and to the chancellors deficit reduction ambitions. similarly, its strong endorsement of the European arrest Warrant (EaW) puts the limelight on deep conservative divisions over the issue, enhanced by ukip s clear call to withdraw from EaW. 24 // FTI Consulting LLP

25 ForEiGn policy and ThE Eu one of the fundamentally divisive issues of our political era, Britain s place or lack thereof in the European union is set to occupy a central role in the election. a Labour party increasingly at odds with the business community hopes that the party s commitment to staying in will appeal to business leaders. a Eurosceptic conservative party threatened by ukip views its commitment to a referendum as its salvation. re-negotiation and reform are on everyone lips but the understanding of both words varies widely between parties and individual politicians. despite the comprehensive review of the Eu s competencies which the coalition government has undertaken, there is very little clarity as to which criteria would define a successful re-negotiation. While david cameron might find some cautious endorsement in certain European capitals and on certain issues, fundamental Eu reform implying a treaty change is very unlikely to garner significant support across the union. Both Berlin and paris have no intention of re-opening the pandora s Box of treaty change. would defend it as it currently exists, let alone argue for an ever closer union. Even if a Labour majority enters parliament post-may, the momentum of demand for a referendum may yet have gained too much political force for Ed Miliband to avoid one. The prospect of an in-out referendum spells a period of uncertainty which would go well beyond May While the snp, the Liberal democrats, Labour party would fall squarely into a pro in camp, the conservative party would face potentially disastrous divisions within its ranks in a prolonged campaign. should Brexit become a reality, the ramifications would be immense. on wider foreign policy questions, whether in Brussels, Washington or new york, an incoming government will continue to engage with international partners on pressing foreign policy issues. The commitment to maintain government overseas aid budget at 0.7 per cent of national income, now enshrined in law by the international development Bill, is unlikely to be questioned unless there is a change of leadership in one of the main parties. The european QuesTIon Is multifaceted remain front and centre of the new prime Minister s concerns. similarly, the struggle against the islamic state and attempts to re-create stability in iraq and syria will not fade away. Labour s iraq trauma has left deep scars within the party, which will undermine any bold positioning on interventionism and may be a significant weakening factor for Ed Miliband should he walk into number 10. neither the ukrainian crisis or the is situation are likely to come to a close soon. The first real test of the new leadership on the international scene will be its contribution to negotiate a successful outcome to the iran nuclear talks. Linked to the iranian questions a change in number 10 would certainly spell a re-calibration of the uk s position on the israeli/palestine question. a Labour-led government would be likely to offer stronger support to palestine in the united nations, particularly in light of the recent results of the israeli elections. George osborne recently announced that the uk is to be one of the founding members of the asian infrastructure investment Bank despite concerns expressed by the us over uk involvement. This issue may have ruffled a few diplomatic feathers but it shows a direction of travel in uk political circles towards closer cooperation with china. Tying into most controversial political issues sovereignty; immigration; financial regulation; security; aid; trade etc. the European question is multifaceted. While the Green party may resent the ongoing negotiation of the Transatlantic Trade and investment partnership (TTip) between the us and the Eu, ukip and factions of the conservative party will target the Eu s freedom of movement rules. plagued by grassroots antagonism and issuespecific opposition, the Eu has yet to find a leading uk political figure that The continued widening of the uk trade deficit, which reached 34.8bn in 2014, will likely see more emphasis put on the role of ukti and the Foreign office in promoting uk exports throughout the world. The strong commitment to this economic diplomacy which has characterised the coalition government seems certain to continue regardless of the election result. Tensions with russia over the ukrainian crisis and the question of new and renewed sanctions will FTI Consulting LLP // 25

26 security and defence defence of the realm is said to be the first duty of the government, yet the uk s defence spending has reached a new low. This led critics to remark that the current government has overseen the greatest decline in British influence abroad for generations. The fight against the islamic state and growing diplomatic tensions between russia and the West over the ukraine are likely to weigh heavy on party leaders minds. These global conflicts, which have rightly dominated the media, have focused the attention of the electorate on what means are available to defend the country, and raised the question about how outward-facing the uk can and should be. in foreign wars. With the uk s spending on third world aid set to be greater than the spend on defence, the government is under pressure from backbench Mps, defence chiefs and even some cabinet members to recommit to nato defence spending requirements. recent analysis by the institute of Fiscal studies (ifs) warned that other government departments could face cuts of up to 16.3 per cent or 26.6billion rather than the current forecast of 18.3billion if the conservative party leadership give in. as a result of huge cuts faced by the Ministry of defence, the British army s regular soldier headcount has plummeted to just 82,000. With the threat of an extra 40 per cent being cut, Britain will be left with the smallest army since the 1770s. Labour supports The british government appears To have Chosen To retreat InTo diplomatic IrrelevanCe douglas alexander, labour s shadow ForeIgn secretary The advent of the scottish national party having a shot at propping up a Labour government means the geographic positioning of the uk s nuclear deterrent could be a key point of discussion post election. on the left, the snp, the Greens and the Lib dems have all committed to abolishing Trident, whilst Labour, ukip and the conservatives have all committed to either renewing or replacing it. snp Leader, nicola sturgeon has however said that a decision to abolish Trident is a condition to doing a deal with Labour. in addition to the consideration of security, the uk defence manufacturing industry is also a significant economic contributor. it is worth an estimated 35bn, accounting for nearly 10 per cent of uk manufacturing and employing over 300,000 people. according to the cbi, there are more smes operating in the uk s defence manufacturing sector than France, italy, Germany, and spain combined, and Britain is currently the world s second largest defence exporter. currently, the defence budget stands at 36billion with no commitment from either major party to sustain spending at two per cent of Gdp as prescribed by nato. in stark contrast, nigel Farage s ukip seeks to actually increase spending to 50billion despite protesting that the uk is far too involved the idea of cutting army top brass in favour of junior ranks. ukip meanwhile have made creating a Veteran s administration one if its key priorities, pledging to guarantee ex-servicemen and women a job in the police, prison service or Border Force as well as giving them priority for social housing. 26 // FTI Consulting LLP

27 scotland and devolution While Britain continues to reconsider its relationship with the European union, the union of nations and how powers are devolved continues to be a subject of contention. The outcome of the scottish referendum has once again brought the question of how powers should be distributed across the union to the fore. since the last election, devolution in the uk has expanded rapidly - developing from devolution of powers to countries within the union, to the transfer of powers to cities. (EVEL). a mechanism by which English Mps could be given an exclusive role in deciding laws that affect England only is unsurprisingly proving contentious. The government has put forward its proposals, but Labour is cautious perhaps because the potential for it to gain a house of commons majority would be seriously challenged under such a scheme. Wales too have extended their powers through the st david s day agreement. The new proposals, which aimed to bring Wales level with scotland, allow the national assembly to lower the Following suit, large cities across the uk have been granted greater powers, in a decentralisation trend that looks set to continue. The creation of the chancellor s northern powerhouse has led to an agreement where Manchester will elect a Mayor with extensive localised powers over issues including housing, transport and policing. Further announcements devolving control of money for skills, training and the nhs have been made most significantly, Greater Manchester s local government will have control of more than a quarter of public money spent in its area. wales Is still not being TreaTed with The same respect as scotland, ThIs ConTInuIng ImbalanCed approach Is damaging To The uk. Carwyn Jones, FIrsT minister of wales narrowly avoiding the collapse of the union left Westminster and its leaders vowing to grant scotland additional powers in a number of policy areas, including social security and consumer affairs. The findings of the smith commission, set up in response to the last minute appeal by uk party leaders to save the union, may have contributed to the referendum result. This has not stopped the march of the snp though, and the concern of many in Westminster is that the ratchet progression of scottish nationalism will continue. a lot will depend on how the scottish Labour party fares under the leadership of Jim Murphy. it appears to be too late for significant electoral ground to be pulled back from the snp in time for May a more concrete bellwether of scottish Labour s post referendum position will be the holyrood election in May in preventing the constitutional crisis which would have ensued, English Mps too looked to alter their own rights with efforts to address the West Lothian question through proposals for English votes for English laws voting age to 16 for assembly elections, have control over hydraulic fracturing, ports and bus regulation. despite this, Wales First Minister carwyn Jones criticised the government for not affording Wales the same respect as scotland, calling it third rate devolution. in 2014, the British and irish Governments also reached a landmark agreement on the future of northern ireland. The stormont house agreement, heralded as very significant and remarkable is intended to bind the parties and communities closer together on resolving past issues, coming to a settlement on welfare reform, and for the Executive, passing a balanced budget. The agreement also helped to resolve several other ongoing political contentions including the devolution of corporation tax to northern ireland, while the British Government agreed to provide a financial package of an additional 2bn from 2014 to With the possibility that northern irish parties could become kingmakers in May, further concessions for northern ireland may be on the agenda for the next parliament. other cities making these city deals to date include cardiff, Glasgow, aberdeen and the West yorkshire combined authority. The trend is set to continue in the new parliament. FTI Consulting LLP // 27

28 EnErGy and climate change notwithstanding the unusual harmony between the main party leaders pledging action on climate change, uncertainty is plaguing the industry and investors. The party leaders have committed to working across party lines to seek a fair, strong, legally binding, global climate deal which limits temperature rises to below two degrees centigrade. however, whilst they share the same objective, they differ on their respective approaches in keeping the lights on and the uk s energy security in the face of rising tensions between russia and the West. in a bid to reduce the uk s carbon footprint and pave the way to a low-carbon future, both the Labour party, conservatives and Liberal democrats seek a broad energy mix ; a combination of nuclear, renewables, carbon capture and storage (ccs) and potentially domestic shale gas - though opinion varies of how much of each technology. being built in Britain in a generation, is set to be the most expensive nuclear reactor in the world producing some of the uk s most expensive electricity at roughly twice the price that Finland will pay with a similar, but cheaper reactor. Labour, whilst cautious over nuclear power have offered their support for the project. in the same stead, the conservatives have expressed enthusiasm for the controversial practice of hydraulic fracturing or fracking, and Labour whilst supportive, are taking a more cautious approach. simultaneously, whilst the parties have committed to a low carbon future their actions might be thought to tell a different story. against mounting pressure, in osborne s March 2015 Budget he provided 1.3bn worth of tax breaks to help save and secure the future of a struggling north sea oil industry. in a more generous than expected support package for the north sea, the office for Budget responsibility assessed that these combined tax cuts will boost production by 15 per cent by the end of The Labour party is generally more positive towards renewables than the conservative party, however it is yet to set out what that preference might mean in practice. Labour seem to be focused on energy prices, but whilst bringing down energy prices is certainly a vote winner with an electorate, a modern energy and climate change policy is about finding a balance between prices, climate change and energy security. in his cost of living crisis targeting of the energy companies Miliband plans to pass emergency legislation forbidding energy firms from increasing domestic prices until 2017 and cut energy bills by up to 10 per cent next winter if elected. as part of Labour s one nation policies, the party will seek to intervene in the energy market by giving the independent energy regulator ofgem price-cutting powers, if it is shown that individual firms are not passing on cuts derived from falling wholesale prices. Labour has also confusingly pledged to scrap ofgem and replace it with with a tough new energy regulator. o nshore wind Is part of a broad mix, but IT s a key part. and IT s The CheapesT, large scale, at The moment. ed davey, liberal democrat secretary of state For energy and ClImaTe Change david cameron s conservatives have been widely criticised for abandoning their ambitions to be the greenest government ever, and one would be hard pressed to find green finger marks on their energy policy. among the conservatives, there is greater appetite to develop a strong nuclear industry at the expense of Britain s largest, cheapest source of renewable energy, onshore wind turbines, having committed to dramatically cutting subsidies in the area and giving local communities the power to block all new developments. hinkley point, the first nuclear power station the decade and drive 4billion of new investment over the next five years. The next government may well be kept busy in fending off threats from energy companies to sell their north sea assets something the snp will have a particular interest in. There was little money earmarked for renewables in the March Budget but, at the insistence of his coalition partners, the chancellor announced the commencement of formal subsidy negotiations for the ambitious 1bn Tidal Lagoon project. Both major parties have relegated energy issues to (at least) the second rank in this election, despite the fact that 1970s style power rationing is a real possibility in coming winters. in June 2014, national Grid began recruiting businesses to switch off at times of peak demand in order to keep household s lights on. Whilst these were measures of last resort, further winter blackouts haven t been ruled out, with significant new interventions needed. 28 // FTI Consulting LLP

29 TransporT The provision of transport across the uk remains central to a number of cross party election themes namely securing Britain s economic prosperity, rebalancing growth across the country and minimising the cost of living. in a clear play to the business community Miliband has defined the need to implement a system of infrastructure planning to ensure the uk is better equipped to meet its long term needs in power generation, communications and transport. as a key part of this the party has announced plans to establish a national infrastructure commission, in line with the armitt review. The infrastructure act came into force in February of this year and will allow for the creation of highways England, which the coalition has estimated could save the taxpayer at least 2.6 billion over the next ten years. the need to upgrade transport links in the north of the country and attempted to close the gap in planned infrastructure investment between north and south, almost 2,000 per person. The high speed railway between London and Birmingham, hs2, has been one of the most criticised schemes of this parliament, but Labour has given its backing to its completion (although Miliband has stated that his party would not sign off on a blank cheque ). The project has highlighted the difficulties of large scale infrastructure development in the uk and the problems that government faces in implementing such significant infrastructure programmes. The need to increase airport capacity remains one of the most contentious issues in the debate around transport and infrastructure and has continued to be a political sticking point. policies designed To appeal To The IndIvIdual voter have been CenTral To CampaIgnIng efforts policies designed to appeal to the individual voter have been central to campaigning efforts, with Labour promising an annual cap on rail fare increases and George osborne s commitment to extend the freeze on fuel duty, making it the longest duty freeze for 20 years. The Lib dems have suggested replacing air passenger duty with a per plane duty and the incoming government will be under pressure to review all current air duties. ukip has pledged its opposition to tolls on public roads while insisting speed cameras are used as a deterrent and not as a source of revenue. Transport provision featured heavily in the chancellor s final Budget of this parliament which emphasised The decision to release the results of the davies commission has removed the issue from the immediate election agenda, but the new administration will be under pressure from business leaders to make a swift decision and steer the necessary legislation through parliament. Both cameron and Miliband have made public u-turns on their opposition to a third runway at heathrow, while nick clegg made a failed bid to convince his party of the need for expansion. in the event of coalition talks the Liberal democrats may be forced to reconsider their position in the face of party membership opposition, a move which could serve as a stark reminder of the tuition fee scandal of FTI Consulting LLP // 29

30 EducaTion There has been an entire overhaul of the education system in the uk since the coalition formed in From the accelerated expansion of the academies and free schools programmes, to the tripling of tuition fees for higher education, this government has left its mark. regardless of who wins the election, the education system will be subject to continued change over the coming years as a result of the coalition s work. disparaging of the coalition s approach to higher education policy, particularly on the matter of fees, Ed Miliband has pledged to cut tuition fees to 6,000 a policy many in the tertiary education sector have opposed. But this remains the only costed policy and a more tangible one than the promised Liberal democrat review of higher education financing or the potential for further rises from the conservatives. david cameron set his sights on schools, protecting the budget from reception to GcsEs in cash terms, though pre-school budgets and post-sixteen education would not see the same protection. The Liberal democrats offer the same protection, but from cradle-to-college. The conservatives pledge to continue with their academies programme, converting a further 3,500 schools into academies exempt from local authority control. schools that do not perform well on literacy and numeracy standards would be forced to convert to academies too. This compounds a promise to drive up standards by supporting parents and communities to establish 500 more free schools. criticised as Kafkaesque by Labour, the reforms led by former Education secretary Michael Gove will be continued by his successor, nicky Morgan, who is undimmed in her commitment to progress the establishment of free schools. ukip have set out policies to increase the number of grammar schools, while some conservatives are hinting that the foot is hovering over the pedal on the same commitment, which the party champions for reflecting excellence and achievement. capitalising on the disquiet arising from teaching unions, Labour promises to reverse the academies and free schools programmes, returning oversight to local authorities and axing the department for Education from directly managing schools. Labour also promises to radically transform vocational education by offering increasing numbers of apprenticeships and reintroducing the qualified Teacher status (qts), the standard that was unpopularly removed by Michael Gove. The Liberal democrats share in this commitment to reintroduce the qts, a qualification they believe will drive up standards across schools. The cabinet reshuffle last year which saw nicky Morgan take over as Education secretary was a move by the government to reconnect with the teaching community, who generally felt that Gove s reforms were extreme. Morgan promises to improve the working conditions for teachers and work to promote academic rigour and strength through a focused national curriculum. The national curriculum is important for the conservatives, who would continue to focus on the core subjects, maths and science, and would continue to develop initiatives to increase the number of children choosing career routes in these areas. The Liberal democrats are keen to ensure the core curriculum is set by independent experts and mental and sexual health education is provided in state schools, academies and free schools, a cornerstone of their election priorities. The pupil premium would continue under a Liberal democrat government, offering more money for disadvantaged children and the implementation of the free school meals would continue. Labour proposes to double sure start childcare places and cut class sizes. 30 // FTI Consulting LLP

31 LocaL GoVErnMEnT and housing over the past six months the uk government has led major developments in devolution in the united Kingdom with city devolution and regional growth emerging as mainstream political themes in the wake of the scottish referendum. despite much talk of localism, the coalition has not proven particularly friendly to local authorities, in part because of an inherent mistrust based on the misdeeds of a few authorities and ancient difficulties which have coloured The secretary of state for communities and Local Government Eric pickles views. Local government has also taken a hit in the reduction of public spending in this parliament. however, Manchester will elect a new Mayor with extensive localised powers over issues including housing, transport and policing in 2017, and it s likely the same will follow in Leeds, Liverpool and Birmingham. This only adds to the existing pressures from local authorities for more power and control over their finances. passing over any tax take. one thing the conservatives have pledged is a review of the business rate system, following on from changes put in place by Eric pickles earlier this parliament. There are some outcomes which seem inevitable whatever the General Election result. on public service reform, the main parties appear to agree on public sector reform allowing more joined up working between bodies receiving government support, particularly around areas such as integrating health and adult social care, skills and employment, housing revenue account borrowing, families with complex needs and probation. With regard to planning, a continuation of one size fits all country wide policies are expected. Finally, it is clear that both major parties believe there are too many local authorities, particularly in rural areas where an area can be covered by county, district and parish councils. For renters they will cap rent increases and scrap letting fees to estate agents. The Liberal democrats will build 300,000 a year, with up to five new garden cities in cambridgeshire, Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and oxfordshire. snp and plaid cymru both oppose the bedroom tax or spare room subsidy while ukip s policies include the establishment of a uk Brownfield agency to incentivise the building of affordable homes on brownfield sites by handing out grants, tax breaks and low interest loans. The Greens will abolish the right to Buy, build 500,000 social rented homes by 2020, paid for by scrapping the buy-to-let mortgage interest tax allowance and give councils the power to borrow money to build houses or buy them on the open market. They also propose a rent cap to prevent exploitation by private landlords and will set up a living commission to work out how to bring rents back in line with incomes. There are some outcomes which seem InevITable whatever The general election result in the devolution debate Labour appears to be prepared to pass over more powers and money than the conservatives. Both parties will continue to cut local government spending but it is believed that the Labour party will be less severe. The biggest difference between Labour and the conservatives is on taxation. in London, Boris Johnson s finance commission argued for devolution of more of London s tax take to the Mayor, specifically property taxes and possibly a sales tax. Labour appear more open to this idea than the conservatives who are very resistant to one area of policy that s always felt at a local level is housing. Various pledges have been made across the political spectrum with regard to house building. under the conservatives first time buyers in England under the age of 40 would be able to buy a house at 20 per cent below the market rate, with 100,000 starter homes to be built for them. There s also potential of a revival of right to Buy. Labour have proposed to build 200,000 houses a year by 2020, including new towns and garden cities, while giving greater powers for councils to reduce the number of empty homes. FTI Consulting LLP // 31

32 LiFEsTyLE Following the end of the duty escalator on beer, the cut in beer duty in the March Budget demonstrated once again that politicians believe lifestyle industries and products capture the electorate s attention. albeit nuanced by broader arguments around choice, health and public responsibility, these complex consumer issues will continue to be a feature of debates in the commons long into the next parliament. The tobacco industry has been rocked by the last-gasp success of the campaign to standardise plain packaging, the consequences of which are yet to arise after its implementation. The debate is far from over, especially if the conservatives form another government: questions about illicit trade and intellectual property remain unanswered and noises about costly and timeconsuming lawsuits are rumbling. Tobacco companies have set their sights on other industry challenges too: the evolution of alternative tobacco and nicotine products such as Electronic Vaping product (EVps, commonly known as e-cigarettes) means that big tobacco faces continued uncertainty as to what their products will look like and how they can be sold in the near future. Going into the election, support for the alcohol industry appears sweetened with a 1p reduction in beer duty and duty on cider and spirits such as scotch whisky cut by 2 per cent, to back one of the uk s biggest exports, as osborne outlined in the last Budget. Whilst currently unsuccessful, the argument for minimum unit pricing has not been permanently defeated, with a report emerging from the house of Lords recommending a trio of paternalistic measures: minimum pricing, a variable tax rate in line with alcoholic strength and new rules on alcohol labelling. These are particularly likely to be pursued in the event of a Labour victory at the polls. alcohol faces a local/national pincer movement; the Local Government association has called for the government to divert a fifth of the current total annual duty on alcohol to councils and has requested power for councils to take public health issues into consideration when deliberating licenses, and supporting licensing and trading standards departments to tackle the black market in alcohol. authorities like newcastle and ipswich are mooting the prospect of local control over late night levies or the strength of alcohol which can be sold in their areas. as with proposals for local control over gambling (the number of bookies in an area, and what s available within them), such measures can grow, spreading out so that in the end the effect is the same, or similar to, a national ban, without the national debate that would have gone with it. The government faces pressure to take action against fixed odds betting terminals (FoBTs) in efforts to tackle problem gambling. This is not as simple an argument as it may seem; whilst some argue that too many outlets offering FoBTs on a high street can lead to a degradation of the street appearance and impact on the local economy, the impact of shop-based terminals (with the employment they offer and rates they generate) versus internet gambling as a source of addiction and poverty is more complex. There s a safety point at play too, since the ability to police the age of gamblers, verify that they re not drunk, observe and identify problem gamblers and so forth is much easier when the provider of the opportunity to gamble can actually see the punter which of course doesn t happen when the gambling s being done at home. The government has set out that the future of FoBTs is unresolved. With the industry being placed under continued scrutiny, it can be expected that the gambling industry s future faces uncertainty, though the Treasury will be wary of legislation that reduces the income it receives from the already heavily taxed and regulated gambling industry. sugar and fat in food and drink are next in the firing line, with a coordinated campaign by health bodies having grown momentum over the course of this parliament. a tax on soft drinks and energy drinks has been debated by public health officials and opposed by industry, but the government has not yet committed to a review or any progress on the issue. The debate should not be dismissed given the focus public health research is placing on diet and sugar intake, and the repeated cycle shown throughout this parliament in all of the tobacco, gambling, alcohol and food and drink debates that progress for the nannying side of the argument is never permanently beaten. seemingly, it s just delayed. 32 // FTI Consulting LLP

33 conclusion no public affairs team can pretend to know all of the results in may or just what those results will mean for the westminster parliament. so much can still change between and within the parties contesting the election, and domestic and international events can always tip the most careful of calculations into error and irrelevance. but there are some things that we can say. There s still time in the campaign for blunders, scandals and quitting candidates. we still await the truly transformative digital campaign in uk politics. Cameron or miliband will be prime minister. The losing leader will quit. and we can say with certainty that the need for businesses and individuals to understand and interact with government and regulators will be undiminished whatever the outcome. Indeed, with ever-more prescriptive and voluminous legislation emerging from a political environment of exceptional complexity, perhaps the need for insights on and engagement with parliamentarians and decision makers has never been greater. we hope that you ve enjoyed this short guide to the parties contesting the uk s 2015 general election, and the issues over which it s been fought. whether it s given you more questions as well as answers; if you ve realised that your company has a public affairs need with which we might assist; if you think we ve nailed something you ve been wondering about for a while; or you think we ve called all of this crazily badly we d love to hear from you. enjoy the election! alex deane alex.deane@fticonsulting.com FTI Consulting LLP // 33

34 ThE FTi consulting public affairs TEaM KEY SERVICES Public affairs support of business strategies about Fti ConsultinG FTi consulting is a global business advisory firm that provides multidisciplinary solutions to complex challenges and opportunities. Government engagement transaction & tax Advisory With the global expertise of leading professionals, combined with our sector knowledge we are committed to protecting and enhancing the enterprise value of our clients. We organise and implement results-focused, research-driven programmes and campaigns that support your business objectives. Political Diplomacy & Country-level Risk Analysis Public Policy advocacy PubliC affairs Managing and mitigating political risk is an essential component of corporate governance and strategic business planning. Whether facing traditional political challenges, entering new markets, pursuing an M&a transaction or strengthening brand positioning in policy centers, our senior advisory teams combine the public policy, capital markets and sector-specific expertise needed to address communications challenges in politics and policy across the globe. lobbying & Direct Advocacy Political Communications & social media present in all key policy and regulatory capitals, our public affairs teams are composed of former regulators, policymakers, lawyers, politicians, journalists and industry experts. They work hand-in-hand to deliver tailored multi-jurisdictional government and regulatory engagement strategies and help clients navigate the policy environment. Public Opinion Research & economic Analysis united KinGdoM Government investigations in London, our public affairs practice headed by alex deane, former chief of staff to david cameron, supports leading corporates, professional services, governments and non-governmental organisations in navigating Westminster and Whitehall. mock hearings & media training Content Analytics & speechwritting sitting within FTi consulting s 160+ strong uk strategic communications team our uk public affairs practitioners counsel clients facing legislative threats and investigations or support their engagement with policymakers and regulators in London. closely integrated with FTi consulting s public affairs teams in Berlin, Brussels, paris and Washington we ensure the right messages are delivered at the right time through the appropriate channels. This helps our clients to remain ahead of the curve in an increasingly unpredictable policy and geo-political environment. integrated Communication Working jointly with our in-house economic consultants, financial communications experts, sector specialists, risk experts, tax advisers and competition economists FTi consulting s public affairs team offers a unique suit of services to enhance and protect reputations. 34 // FTI Consulting LLP

35 Public Affairs AND Government Relations Our Team Alex Deane Managing Director and Head of UK Public Affairs Rt. Hon. Patricia Hewitt Senior Advisor Philippa Roe Senior Advisor Liam O Keefe senior director Alexander HolROyd Director Alex Deane is a Managing Director in the FTI Strategic Communications practice and Head of Public Affairs in London. A former Chief of Staff to David Cameron he has worked with investment funds, venture capitalists and listed companies to enhance their political outreach and standing as well as providing guidance on multimarket regulatory issues. Alex is an elected Common Councilman in the City of London, the famous Square Mile, home of Britain s financial centre where he serves on the main decisionmaking body, the Policy and resources Committee. He read English Literature at Cambridge University. Rt. Hon. Patricia Hewitt has had a long and distinguished career in politics, government and business. She served in Tony Blair s Cabinet as Secretary of State for Health, Secretary of State for Trade and Industry and Cabinet Minister for Women, having previously held posts as Economic Secretary to the Treasury and e-commerce Minister. After leaving government, Patricia served on the Board of BT plc until March She is currently a Director of EuroTunnel Group, a member of the global advisory board of the technology firm, Sutherland Global Services and Chair of the UK India Business Council. As the current Leader of Westminster City Council, Philippa brings 25 years of board level experience across business and politics to the FTI Consulting team. Philippa is Chair of the West End Partnership, sits on the boards of Royal Parks and the London Local Enterprise Partnership and is Deputy Leader of the Local Government Association and Deputy Leader of London Councils. She was a member of the Imperial College Council, chair of their audit and spent several years in the City - first with Schroder s, then as a director of Citigroup. Liam O Keefe has over seven years experience in public affairs and communications having previously worked in the European Parliament, for Weber Shandwick Public Affairs and in Kenya for Accountancy for International Development. He specialises in strategic advice, project implementation, regulatory affairs, with a particular focus on translating regulatory issues into politically palatable campaigns, crisis management and building campaigns that stretch from the local to the international. He studied Politics at Edinburgh University. liam.okeefe@fticonsulting.com Alexander worked for the Brussels-based public affairs team of FTI Consulting prior to relocating to London. Alex has extensive experience advising clients facing cross-border and multifaceted challenges. He focuses on ensuring leading clients have coherent political and policy engagement across jurisdictions. Alexander is Franco-British and holds a degree in European Studies from Kings College London. Prior to joining FTI Consulting he worked for a European think tank and in journalism. alexander.holroyd@fticonsulting.com alex.deane@fticonsulting.com LauRA sainsbury Senior ConsuLTant John Gusman ConsuLTant Amy Yiannitsarou ConsuLTant Catriona Stirling Global Network Coordinator Lucy Oliver Team Assistant Prior to joining FTI Consulting, Laura worked at Bellenden Ltd, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and in journalism. With a strong background in developing campaigns at local, regional, national and European levels, her sector experience spans financial services, housing, third sector and energy. Laura read Politics, Philosophy and Economics at Oxford University. She is a school governor and a former Vice-Chair of the Association of Professional Political Consultants Young Consultants Committee. With expertise in executing communications programmes, stakeholder outreach and political intelligence gathering, John joined FTI from Westminsterbased public affairs agency PLMR. His sector experience spans across education, health, energy and financial services. John worked for David Laws MP during the 2010 election and holds a degree BA (Hons) in Communications and Media. john.gusman@fticonsulting.com Amy joined FTI from Westbourne Communications and has experience in energy, legal and financial services public affairs. Formerly a Press Associate at cchq, Amy ran as a Conservative Candidate for a local election in Amy read BA (Hons) Politics and Ancient History at Nottingham University. amy.yiannitsarou@fticonsulting.com Catriona is responsible for coordinating FTI Consulting s network of independent affiliate partners across the Americas, EMEA and Asia- Pacific regions. Prior to joining FTI Consulting in 2014, she worked for the Lord Mayor of the City of London. Catriona holds a BA (Hons) degree in History from the University of Leeds. cat.stirling@fticonsulting.com Lucy joined FTI Consulting from a boutique consultancy firm in the City and has experience in Legal, Financial Services, Government Affairs and Property Management. Having worked closely with the leaders of large corporations, she has earned a high level of experience dealing with all aspects of the consultative cycle. Lucy provides logistical support to the UK Public Affairs team. lucy.oliver@fticonsulting.com laura.sainsbury@fticonsulting.com FTI Consulting LLP // 35