Analysis: North Korean Media Campaign Signals Possible Near-Term Launch

Transcription

1 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY This product may contain copyrighted material; authorized use is for national security purposes of the United States Government only. Any reproduction, dissemination, or use is subject to the OSC usage policy and the original copyright. Show Full Version Analysis: North Korean Media Campaign Signals Possible Near-Term Launch FEA OSC Feature - North Korea -- OSC Analysis 11 Feb 09 North Korea has resumed laying the groundwork for a demonstration of its satellite- and missile-related capabilities, renewing efforts to portray its space program as peaceful and within international norms. Pyongyang might time a possible launch to coincide with ongoing events, such as the upcoming opening of a new North Korean legislative session, likely to be held in April, or with annual US-South Korea spring military exercises. Pyongyang's ultimate decision whether to launch will likely reflect its views on relations with the United States. During the past several months, Pyongyang has stepped up its media campaign asserting North Korea's "right" to pursue space research and development -- an endeavor specifically including launching "satellites." Most recently, a 7 February party daily signed commentary portrayed space research and development as a "legitimate right," saying that North Korea's "peaceful advance into space is... justifiable in compliance with the development of the times."[ 1] At the same time, the commentary avoided any mention of the rumors of the North's preparations for a long-range missile launch widely reported in world media since 3 February.[ 2][3][4][ 5] This builds on three other signed commentaries in the party daily since October each by a different senior commentator -- that were all similar in structure and wording.[ 6][ 7][ 8] In a likely attempt to preempt international condemnation in the event of a launch, the commentaries emphasized the "equal right of every country" to pursue space research and development as an "asset of humanity in common." Having party daily commentators address the North's "space" policy allows Pyongyang to make its case for a satellite-related event without making a formal government commitment. Although the "right" to space is not a new theme in North Korean media, the current emphasis -- both in terms of the nature of the discussion and its frequency -- is rare. Dating back to at least 2005, there have been only two other signed commentaries in the party daily claiming this "right."[ 9][ 10] In the uptick in reporting prior to the early July 2006 missile launches -- as well as in a similar spike in reporting last summer -- the campaign was limited to third-party reports on space-related developments in other countries that were framed either peacefully or as attempts to "militarize" space.[ 11][ 12] [ 13]

2 Only Indirect Acknowledgement As was the case in the lead-up to its only two previous long-range missile launches in August 1998 and July 2006, there have been no authoritative North Korean pronouncements confirming or denying rumored launch plans. Pyongyang has, however, used unofficial channels to indirectly acknowledge a possible upcoming launch attempt. Most prominently, Choso'n Sinbo -- a pro-north Korean newspaper in Japan that apparently has editorial ties to the regime -- addressed on 5 February the recent rumors on North Korean launch preparations without specifically denying them.[ 14] The article indirectly linked missile research with North Korean "military countermeasures" that were being undertaken in response to "hostile relations" with the United States. Notably, this was also the case in the run-up to the early July 2006 launch attempts. In late June 2006, an article in the Choso'n Sinbo claimed that a "launch of an artificial earth satellite" could be "carried out at any time in the future... a month later or a year later."[ 15] The article further stated that the "launch itself" would only become a "security issue" where there are "mutually hostile relations." The only other recent signal -- not authoritative but likely vetted -- is the message reportedly given to a senior non-governmental US delegation during a 2-7 February visit to Pyongyang. According to wire services, upon his return, former US Ambassador to South Korea Bosworth told reporters that in regard to possible launch preparations, "they said we should all wait and see."[ 16] [ 17] Timing If Pyongyang decides to conduct a launch it would likely time the move to coincide with ongoing events, such as the upcoming opening of a new North Korean legislative session, likely to be held in April, or with annual US-South Korea spring military exercises. Pyongyang could frame such an event as either the "peaceful use of space" or as a "necessary military countermeasure." North Korea has scheduled elections on 8 March for the 12th Supreme People's Assembly (SPA), which would likely open in early April.[ 18] A launch would fit the regime's current focus on science and technology innovation, building on the December 2008 lighting of the "torch of Kangso'n" and a major policy emphasis on "opening up the gate to a powerful state in 2012" based on advances in science and technology as contained in this year's authoritative New Year's Joint Editorial.[ 19] [ 20] The August 1998 launch attempt coincided with the opening of its 11th SPA and was portrayed as a major technological achievement. The recent Choso'n Sinbo article highlighted combined US-South Korea military exercises that are conducted "around March every year" as a "provocation" that could result in "more hard-line countermeasures." Diplomatic Wild Card The ultimate decision on whether to launch will likely reflect Pyongyang's views on relations with the United States. Almost certainly aware that a launch would be seen by the international community as provocative, Pyongyang appears to be deliberately raising the stakes, possibly the result of a calculus that envisions making headway in bilateral negotiations if it could present itself as an equal partner. If Pyongyang proceeds with a launch, it could indicate a judgment on its part that the United States is not currently ready to move forward bilaterally. A launch would represent a change in Pyongyang's current approach to Washington as suggested by North Korea's positive media portrayals of President Obama and signals emphasizing the importance of improving the bilateral relationship. Dating back to its treatment of the election in November 2008, North Korean media have portrayed cautious optimism regarding the Obama administration. In an authoritative and fairly direct signal, Pyongyang for the first time in seven years failed to level any criticism against the United States in its New Year's policy pronouncement.[ 21] In addition, Pyongyang has portrayed President Obama as a break with the past and

3 a potentially transformational figure.[ 22] [ 23] [ 24] [ 25] [ 26] [ 27] [ 28] [ 29] [1][OSC KPP February 2009 DPRK PARTY ORGAN COMMENTARY: 'RIGHT FOR PEACEFUL USE OF SPACE LIES WITH ANYONE' (U) (U) Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition) in Korean -- Daily (formerly transliterated as Nodong Sinmun) of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea; posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan; URL: [2][OSC JPP February 2009 JAPAN SOURCES: US SATELLITES 'CONFIRM' DPRK READYING LAUNCH OF 'IMPROVED' MISSILE (U) (U) Tokyo Sankei Shimbun Online in Japanese -- Website of daily published by Fuji Sankei Communications Group; URL: [3][OSC KPP February 2009 ROK'S YONHAP CITES INTELLIGENCE SOURCE SAYING DPRK MOVING TO TEST-FIRE LONG-RANGE MISSILE U U Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK. URL: [4][OSC JPP February 2009 AFP Cites Report: DPRK May Be Set for Long-Range Missile Launch U U Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse] [ 5][OSC JPP February 2009 Kyodo: LEAD: N. Korea Moving To Launch Long-Range Missile, Yonhap Reports U U ] [6][OSC KPP January 2009 DPRK PARTY ORGAN ON 'INTERNATIONAL TREND' OF ADVANCING INTO SPACE, KEEPING STEP (U) (U) Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition) in Korean -- Daily (formerly transliterated as Nodong Sinmun) of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea; posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan; URL: [7][OSC KPP November 2008 DPRK PARTY ORGAN ON FOREIGN COUNTRIES' SPACE DEVELOPMENT, MENTIONS DPRK'S RIGHT (U) (U) Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (via Uriminjokkkiri Internet) in Korean -- Daily (formerly transliterated as Nodong Sinmun) of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea; posted on Uriminjokkkiri, external website targeting overseas Koreans; technically administered out of Shenyang, China but reportedly run by the Workers Party of Korea United Front Department. URL: [8][OSC KPP October 2008 DPRK Party Organ Stresses DPRK's 'Peaceful' Development of Space (U) (U) Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (via KPM Internet) in Korean -- Daily (formerly transliterated as Nodong Sinmun) of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea; posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan. URL: [9][OSC KPP March 2008 DPRK PARTY PAPER CRITICIZES US SATELLITE SHOOTDOWN AS 'SIGNAL' OF SPACE ARMS RACE (U) (U) Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (via KPM Internet) in Korean -- Daily (formerly transliterated as Nodong Sinmun) of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea; posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan. URL: [ 10] [OSC KPP February 2008 DPRK Party Organ Decries US for Opposing 'Space Demilitarization Treaty' (U) (U) Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (via KPM Internet) in Korean -- Daily (formerly transliterated as Nodong Sinmun) of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea; posted on the Korean Press

4 Media (KPM) website run by the pro-pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan. URL: [11][OSC KPF August 2008 OSC ANALYSIS: DPRK LAYS GROUNDWORK FOR DEMONSTRATION OF SATELLITE, MISSILE CAPABILITY (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) ] [ 12] [OSC KPF June 2006 OSC Analysis 21 Jun: DPRK Builds Case for Missile Launch (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) ] [ 13] [OSC KPP Source Lan OSC REPORT 19 MAY: COMPARING 1998 PRE-LAUNCH DPRK MEDIA BEHAVIOR TO CURRENT SILENCE (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) ] [ 14] [OSC KPP February 2009 PRO-DPRK ORGAN VIEWS DPRK PRONOUNCEMENTS, WARNS OF ARMY'S 'MORE HARDLINE' MEASURES (U) (U) Tokyo Choso'n Sinbo Online in Korean -- Website of the official organ of the pro-dprk General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (formerly transliterated as Choson Sinbo); URL: [ 15] [OSC KPP June 2006 PRO-DPRK ORGAN VIEWS NORTH KOREA'S POSITION ON REPORTS OF MISSILE LAUNCH PREPARATIONS (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) Tokyo Choso'n Sinbo (Internet Version-WWW) in Korean -- Internet-based version of Choso'n Sinbo (formerly transliterated as Choson Sinbo), the official organ of the pro-dprk General Association of Korean Residents in Japan. URL: [ 16] [OSC KPP February 2009 ROK's Yonhap: US Expert Says DPRK Wants To Continue Denuclearization Talks (U) (U) Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK. URL: [ 17] [OSC JPP February 2009 DPRK Tells Former US Envoy Bosworth 'Wait and See' About Missile Launch (U) (U) Tokyo Kyodo World Service in English -- English service of Japan's largest domestic and international news agency, owned by nonprofit cooperative of 63 newspaper companies and NHK] [ 18] [OSC KPP January 2009 OSC Report: North Korea -- New Supreme People's Assembly Likely To Open in Apr U U ] [ 19] [OSC KPP January 2009 Full Text of DPRK's 2009 New Year's Joint Editorial (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station in Korean -- DPRK-owned central radio network] [ 20] [OSC KPF January 2009 OSC-INR ANALYSIS: DPRK -- NEW YEAR'S MESSAGE DE-EMPHASIZES REFORM, SIGNALS CHANGE (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) ] [ 21] [OSC KPP January 2009 Full Text of DPRK's 2009 New Year's Joint Editorial (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station in Korean -- DPRK-owned central radio network] [ 22] [OSC KPF January 2009 OSC Analysis: DPRK Restrained on PRC, 6PT, Signals Preference for US Relations (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) ] [ 23] [OSC KPF January 2009 OSC ANALYSIS: DPRK POSITIVE ON US INAUGURATION, SOLIDIFIES NEGOTIATING POSITIONS (U//FOUO) (U//FOUO) ]

5