Lessons from the Agreed Framework with North Korea and Implications for Iran: A Japanese view

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Lessons from the Agreed Framework with North Korea and Implications for Iran: A Japanese view"

Posy Hood
5 years ago
Views:

1 From Pyongyang to Tehran: U.S. & Japan Perspectives on Implementing Nuclear Deals At Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC March 28, 2016 Lessons from the Agreed Framework with North Korea and Implications for Iran: A Japanese view Nobumasa Akiyama Hitotsubashi University

2 What to Achieve through Nuclear Deals? State level Nonproliferation Eliminating/containing nuclear weapon capability Security Regime change/ Transforming into a nonthreatening, cooperative regime Nuclear Deal Regional level Preventing regional proliferation domino Stabilizing regional strategic dynamics 2

Why Did the Agreed Framework Fail? North Korea s perspective Sense of insecurity Threat of regime change remained.

of North Korea s commitment to denuclearization Unclear sequence of denuclearization process, verification and

North Korea s arms export Commitment of China? 3 Gap on endgame: regime change or regime security? U.S.

3 Why Did the Agreed Framework Fail? North Korea s perspective Sense of insecurity Threat of regime change remained. Delay in the delivery of incentives US delayed in delivery of fuel oil Other Parties (US, Japan, China and ROK) Lack of North Korea s commitment to denuclearization Unclear sequence of denuclearization process, verification and incentive provisions Different levels of threats Different views on North Korea s nuclear threats Sanction loopholes North Korea s arms export Commitment of China? 3 Gap on endgame: regime change or regime security? U.S. Domestic Politics: Lack of consensus and low prioritization Ambiguity of verification arrangement Ineffectiveness of incentive/disincentive mechanisms

4 Different Threat Perceptions: Incorporating them into One Deal? No direct nuclear threat Regional nonproliferation No nuclear threat, but more conventional threats United States ROK DPRK: Regime survival China Japan Collapse of North Korea North Korea triggering Japan s nuclear option WMD terrorism Insurgency Missiles 4

Japan s Attitude Toward Agreed Framework and Six Party Talk Threat perception Insurgency/terrorist-like attack abduction Not much on nuclear weapons

the 2000s 1) Try to achieve the stability through normalization and resolution of abduction issue, 2) While supporting US security agenda (Iraq War) But

5 Japan s Attitude Toward Agreed Framework and Six Party Talk Threat perception Insurgency/terrorist-like attack abduction Not much on nuclear weapons (until Taepodong launch in 1998) Dominant agenda on North Korea in domestic political context Normalization talks Abduction issues Japan s strategy in the 2000s 1) Try to achieve the stability through normalization and resolution of abduction issue, 2) While supporting US security agenda (Iraq War) But Much attention to Abduction Nonproliferation agenda was overshadowed. Linkage between abduction and denuclearization (at Six- Party Talk) Strategy did not work 5

6 North Korea-Iran Comparison: Assessing Implications on Iran North Korea Six Party Talk Key regional players included Declared intention to weaponize Separated Pu, eventually weaponized Very low Sanction loopholes Dictatorial dynasty Elements Framework of dialogue Level of nuclear development (when negotiation started) Dependency on international market Political system Iran P5+1 Key regional players not included Denying its intention to weaponize Centrifuges and two reactors in place Potentially high Stringent sanction scheme Religious Supreme leader Relatively plural, and receptive of public Suggested withdrawal from NPT (and withdrawn eventually) Non-cooperation with IAEA Survival of the regime from pressure for regime change Association with nonproliferation regimes Key strategic objectives Reiterated its association with NPT Expressed its willingness to cooperate with IAEA Establishing itself as a regional power Iran is more sensitive to external pressures and incentives. Iran seems to be more bound by international norms. But Iran may have much longer term vision on the deal. 6

7 Lessons for US-Japan Alliance Security: Reassurance Close communication on; Security concerns on both side, and Vision on regional security = how to shape the relationship among major stakeholders Reaffirm mutual security commitments including; Ensuring the credibility of nuclear extended deterrence, Building missile defense architecture, and Working on joint operational capacity Diplomacy: Coordination and unified message Coordination in behavior at UNSC and IAEA Keeping international momentum for compliance Working together for stringent export controls Capacity building of other states Intelligence sharing matters Ensuring Sanction schemes to work Closing loopholes 7

8 Thank you! Nobumasa Akiyama

Summary of Policy Recommendations

Summary of Policy Recommendations 192 Summary of Policy Recommendations Chapter Three: Strengthening Enforcement New International Law E Develop model national laws to criminalize, deter, and detect nuclear