Asia-Pacific Security-Economics Dynamics: Insights from Negotiation Analysis

Transcription

1 Asia-Pacific Security-Economics Dynamics: Insights from Negotiation Analysis by Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit Presentation for the ISA Hong Kong Conference, 15 th -17 th June 2017, Hong Kong University, Hong Kong

2 About This Project A study of Asia-Pacific security-economic dynamics on regional cooperation How do economic priorities (e.g. reliance on trade routes or transnational production networks, resource exploitation) shape states security objectives, patterns of behaviour, and cooperation outcomes? Contributions to the existing literatures: Enhance the understanding re: economics-security nexus in the Asia-Pacific. A strategic approach.

3 About This Project How does the security-economic nexus play out in regional water resource management (WRM) cooperation? WRM is a process which promotes the co-ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems (Global Water Partnership Technical Advisory Committee, 2000)

4 About This Project Case = WMR cooperation in the Mekong subregion, focusing on the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Agreement What shaped the details of WRM cooperation under the LMC Framework?

5 Mekong Subregion

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7 Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Framework (LMC)

8 Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Established in 2015 Members: China and five ASEAN states (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam) Sanya Declaration (coined at the 1 st LMC Leaders' Meeting, 23 March 2016): 3+5 Cooperation Framework 3 Pillars + 5 Priority Areas Pillars: (1) Political and Security, (2) Economic and Sustainable Development, and (3) Social, Cultural and People-to-People. Priority Areas: 1) connectivity, 2) production capacity, 3) crossborder economic cooperation, 4) water resources, 5) agriculture and poverty reduction

9 Meetings Place Date Selected Negotiation Outcomes Parties welcomed the ideas of founding the 1 st Lancang-Mekong River Dialogue and LMC SOM Beijing, China 6 April 2015 Cooperation as a mechanism to support Meeting subregional cooperation among six countries. 2 nd LMC SOM Meeting 1 st LMC Foreign Ministers Meeting 3 rd LMC SOM Meeting Chiang Rai, Thailand Jinghong City, Yunnan province, China Sanya, Hainan Province, China LMC Meetings August November February 2016 Discussed the Concept Reached consensus re: the concept Paper of the establishment of the LMC, Discussed priority areas of cooperation. Welcomed the early harvest approach Launched the LMC by endorseing the LMC Concept Paper, agreed on the LMC coop directions (3 prioritiy areas of cooperation Political/Security, Economic/Development, and Social/Cultural) Finalized on 3 output documents comprising of 1) Sanya Declaration of the 1st LMC Leaders Meeting 2) Joint Statement of the Production Capacity Cooperation of the LMC Countries and 3) Joint List of the LMC Early Harvest Projects.

10 Meetings Place Date Selected Negotiation Outcomes China would develop hydroelectric resources of Lancang-Mekong River in a scientific manner, Press Release by Beijing, China 17 March 2016 establish Lancang-Mekong water resource Chinese Ministry of cooperation center, share information and data foreign Affairs of the River, and jointly protect the ecological resources along the River. 1 st LMC Leaders Meetings (Sanya Declaration - Theme: Share River, Share Future ) Sanya, Hainan Province, China LMC Meetings 23 March 2016 Set the 3+5 Cooperation Framework; LMC Organizing Structure. Issued the Joint Statement on Production Capacity Cooperation. Adopted a list of early harvest programmes (inclu. WRM projects) Agreed to enhance WRM cooperation such as the establishment of a WRM center in China as well as technical exchanges, capacity building, drought and flood management, data and information sharing, conducting joint research and analysis related to Lancang-Mekong river resources

11 LMC Meetings Meetings Place Date Selected Negotiation Outcomes 2 nd LMC Foreign Ministers Meeting Siem Reap, Cambodia 23 December 2016 Endorsed the General Principles for the Establishment of the Joint Working Groups on the LMC Key Priority Areas and looked forward to the early establishment and operation of the JWGs; tasked the SOM and working groups to explore the formulation of a Five-Year LMC Action Plan. 1 st Meeting of the Joint WG of LMC on Water Resource Management 2 nd LMC Leaders Meeting Beijing, China 26 February 2017 Beijing China 10 March 2017 Expected in 2018 China emphasized the capacity-building, drought management aspects of water resource cooperation The LMC China Secretariat (to facilitate cooperation) was set up. Formation of WGs on priority areas are accelerated.

12 LMC Decision-Making Structure Leaders Meetings Foreign Ministers Meeting (FM) Senior Officials Meetings (SOM) Working Group Meetings (WG)

13 Selected LMC Outcomes 1 st LMC Leaders Meetings (23 Mar 2016): Agreed to enhance WRM cooperation such as the establishment of a WRM center in China as well as technical exchanges, capacity building, drought and flood management, data and information sharing, conducting joint research and analysis related to Lancang-Mekong river resources 2 nd LMC Foreign Ministers Meeting (23 Dec 2016): Set up the Joint Working Groups on the LMC Key Priority Areas 1 st Meeting of the Joint WG of LMC (26 Feb 2017): Emphasized the capacity-building, drought management aspects of water resource cooperation

14 WMR elements of the LMC Agreeement

15 What shaped the details of WRM Cooperation under the LMC Framework?

16 What shaped the details of WRM Cooperation under the LMC Framework?

17 Securitization Securitization defined as a process in which an actor declares... a particular issue to be an existential threat to a particular referent object (McDonald, 2008: 69). When states identify an issue as posing a threat to national security, the issue becomes securitized. Securitization of environmental resources is mainly about access to and control over such resources (Vogler 2002).

18 LMC Parties Securitization of Water Issues China Laos Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Securitization of water issues Strategic access to sea (Mekong river as alternative to the Malacca Strait), Trade, security, Energy security Trade security (electricity exports) Food security & trade security (Mekong delta) Food security & trade security (Tonle Sap) Food security (Northeast) Main Objectives in LMC negotations Navigation, Hydropower development Hydropower development Flood & Drought management; info sharing Flood & Drought management; info sharing Flood & Drought management; info sharing Myanmar N/A N/A

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25 Tonle Sap Lake

26 aaa Mekong Delta

27 Negotiation Process 1. Issue Linkage/Issue Trading Issue linkage: the simultaneous discussion of two or more issues for joint settlement (Sebenius, 1983). States exchanged concessions to get a package deal e.g. SALTs talks, WTO s Doha Round, WU s fisheries policy

28 Negotiation Process China s concession: WRM Center in China to share information about water storage & release Downstream countries concession: China and Laos can produce sustainable hydroelectricity Cooperation on navigation a bargaining chip? The Agreement on Commercial Navigation on Lancang-Mekong River (2000) Members = China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand (no Cambodia, no Vietnam)

29 Negotiation Process 2. Venue Selection Venues can affect negotiation dynamics and outcomes (Baumgartner and Jones, 1993). Venue shopping = Finding a decision setting that offers the best prospects for reaching one s policy goals (Pralle, 2003, p. 233). E.g. EU s public health and labour market policies, the first COC consultation between ASEAN and China in September 2013

30 Negotiation Process Roles of Thailand How to get China more involved in regional WRM cooperation? Thailand s strategy A new, broad-based cooperation framework with WRM elements inside Thailand proposed LMC as alternative to other WRM frameworks Mekong River Commission (1995) has 4 members (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam). Myanmar, China are Dialogue Partners = Observers

31 Negotiation Process 17 th China-ASEAN Summit (13 Nov 2014) : Chinese Premier Li said in order to promote the development of ASEAN sub-region, China is willing to respond positively to Thailand s initiative, and explore the feasibility of setting up the LMC 1 st LMC Foreign Ministers Meeting (12 Nov 2015): Approved the LMC Concept Paper. LMC was launched

32 What to do next? Ongoing project, ongoing negotiations. 1 st Joint WG meeting on WRM in February My findings are preliminary What to do next? 1. Do more interviews, esp. Chinese and Myanmar officials and/or experts 2. Analyze the WRM cooperation details of the future Joint WG meetings

33 Thank you very much.

34 References Baumgartner, F. and Jones, B. (1993) Agendas and Instability in American Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. McDonald M (2008b) Securitization and the construction of security. European Journal of International Relations,14(4): Pralle, S. (2003) Venue shopping, political strategy, and policy change: the internationalization of Canadian forestry advocacy, Journal of Public Policy, 23(3), Volger, J. (2002). The European union and the securitisation of the environment. In E. Page, &M. Redclift (Eds.), Human security and the environment: International comparisons (pp ). Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Hensengerth, O. (2009). Transboundary river cooperation and the regional public good: The case of the Mekong River. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 31(2), Sebenius, J.K. (1983) Negotiation arithmetic: adding and subtracting issues and parties. International Organization, 37(2), Global Water Partnership Technical Advisory Committee (2000). Integrated Water Resources Management. Background Paper No. 4 (Stockholm, GWP).

35 Frameowkrs of WRM Cooperation in the Mekong Subregion Mekong River Commission (1995) ASEAN Mekong Basin Development Cooperation (1996) Lower Mekong Initiative (2009) Mekong-Japan Cooperation (2009) Mekong-ROK Cooperation (2011) Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (2015)

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