Gender and Local Executive Office in Regional Russia: Party of Power as a Vehicle for Women Empowerment?

Transcription

1 Olga A. Avdeyeva, Loyola University Chicago* Dekabrina M. Vinokurova, Northeastern Federal University Alexandr A. Kugaevsky, Northeastern Federal University Gender and Local Executive Office in Regional Russia: Party of Power as a Vehicle for Women Empowerment? *Corresponding author: 1032 West Sheridan Rd., Loyola University Chicago Chicago, IL, oavdeyeva@luc.edu 1

2 Abstract We employ political ambition framework to study women s under-representation in Russian local politics. We conduct a survey of current heads of municipal districts, municipal urban and rural settlements in four regions of the Russian Federation. The study reveals gendered pathways to local leadership positions. Incumbent advantage is fully used by male politicians: male incumbents are more likely, than female incumbents, to run for re-election. Self-initiated ambition, term, and age explain male executives decision to run for re-election. Female incumbents are likely to run for next term only if they are supported by the United Russia party. Key words: gender, women s under-representation, political ambition theory, local selfgovernment, candidate emergence, Russian Federation, local politics. 2

3 In Russia, women outnumber men by 10 million people, but their voices are not adequately represented in Russian politics. Very few women occupy the top leadership positions, their numbers are meager in national and regional governments, there were some recent gains of seats in State Duma and regional legislatures by female deputies, but even these modest gains may turn out to be transitory, as some research has suggested (Golosov 2014). The Russian Constitution and the laws regulating the political process recognize and endorse gender equality as one of the fundamental rights; however, these laws do not move enforcement beyond formal recognition. There is no legal, institutional, or administrative mechanisms for advancing women into politics. Moreover, the Russian political arena is often described as hostile to female candidates and politicians with open and overt practices of discrimination used against women in political campaigns (Open Women Line 2003). In this unfriendly political environment, one puzzling question is not why so few women run for political office, but who are those women who run for political office, despite overwhelming challenges, and which factors support their arrival to a political office and their continuous service in these positions? To answer these questions, we premise our work on studies of political ambition and conduct a survey of acting heads of local executive offices 1 (at municipal districts (raion), municipal urban settlements, and municipal rural settlements) in four regions of the Russian Federation: Arkhangelskaya oblast, Sakha Republic, Buryatia, and Tatarstan. We choose to focus on the local executive branch, which has more powers in local decision making, than local legislatures. The focus on local government is particularly important for studies of 1 Local executive offices are referred to as local self-government institutions in the 2003 Federal Law # 131 On General Principles of Organization of Local Self-Government Institutions in the Russian Federation and are designed to model the European Charter of Local Self-Government (Council of Europe, 1985). 3

4 political ambition because local political offices are considered a spring board for progressive advancement to upper levels of government. The findings of the survey reveal gendered pathways to local executive offices: different factors motivate male and female candidates to compete for political office in local elections and inform their decision to run for the next term. First, women, on average, are more likely to run as United Russia party candidates, than men. Men are more likely, than women, to run as independents. On average, more women, than men, recognize party support (in all cases United Russia) as indispensable for their election into position. Party of power, therefore, becomes a vehicle for women s advancement into local political office. Second, different factors explain the decision of female and male incumbents to run in the next elections. For male incumbents, age, self-initiated political ambition, and term in office are statistically significant factors that inform their decision to run in the next elections. Higher term in office negatively affects men s decision to run for a new term. Similarly, older men are less likely to run for a new term, than younger male incumbents. Finally, those men whose interest to participate in politics was self-initiated (as opposed to encouraged by someone else) have higher propensity to maintain this interest and consider running in new election cycle. Thus, for male incumbents individual level factors inform their decision to run for a new term. For female politicians, there is only one significant factor explaining women s decision to run in the next elections. It is the party support. Those women who were supported by United Russia in their initial election are more likely to consider running in a new election cycle. Thus, the incumbency advantage enjoyed by male politicians is smaller for female heads of local selfgovernance offices, who will run again only if they are supported by the party, regardless of incumbency status. Party membership per se does not guarantee women advantage in local 4

5 elections. Moreover, it is not a good predictor of the decision to run again neither for male nor for female politicians. Although many women in our survey indicated having self-initiated interest in politics, self-motivation is not a good predictor for women s decision to run in a new election. Overall, women are found to follow a relationally embedded model of candidate emergence, where they rely on support and encouragement from other political actors to become a politician and continue their political career (Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013). Our final finding is pessimistic: on average, female incumbents are less likely to run for the next term, than their male colleagues. Female politicians are more likely to consider leaving elective political office for appointed positions in local administration, thus, for less visible subordinate positions. This difference in responses is strongly significant and robust. In the following sections, we present and discuss the theoretical rationale for our study on women s advancement in politics in Russia, present the study research design, and discuss our findings in full detail. Political Ambition and Women in Political Offices The field of electoral studies produced a rich theoretical tradition focused on understanding political ambition and the role of electoral incentives and strategic political environment for explaining the behavior of office seekers and office holders. The classic work on political ambition analyzes an extensive career dataset of elected officials to demonstrate that the advancement in electoral politics is a product of progressive political ambition, party competition, and strategic political environment (Schlesinger 1966). David Rohde refines the classic framework by developing a rational choice model of ambition and office seeking defined as a calculus of 5

6 weighted risks, the probability of success, and the expected benefits of service in the elected position (1979). The ambition-centered theoretical tradition produced an extensive research in various fields of electoral studies, including candidate emergence, careerism and professionalization, rules and institutional structures of legislatures, and evolution and change in political parties (Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde 1987; Black 1972; Fiorina 2001; Mayhew 1974; Price 1975; Schleisinger 1985). The initial assumption of gender neutrality of classic models of political ambition was recently challenged in numerous studies of candidate emergence and electoral career development (Bledsoe and Herring 1990; Fox and Lawless 2004; Fulton, Maestas, Maisel, and Stone 2006; Palmer and Simon 2003; Sapiro 1982; Lawless and Fox 2005). First and very importantly, men and women are found to have different levels of initial political ambition, or self-initiated interest to run for elected office, with women having much lower interest to participate in elected politics than men (Fox and Lawless 2005; Lawless and Fox 2010). Second, different factors have a differentiated impact on the decision of female and male candidates to run for political office. For instance, family obligations, career pathways, perceptions of political opportunity, and personal attitudes about qualifications and suitability for elected office are informed by gender (Fulton et al. 2006; Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013; Thomas 2002). Third, men are found to suit the classic political ambition model of candidate emergence and electoral career development, which assumes self-initiated motivation to pursue politics. Women are better suited for relationally embedded model of candidate emergence, in which women decide to engage in electoral politics in response to encouragement and support from strategic political actors, such as parties and interest groups, and they are more likely, than men, to depend on family support (Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013). 6

7 To study the effect of these factors on decision to run for elected office, we adopt a three stage concept of political ambition: discrete ambition (incumbents ran for elected office in the past, but do not plan to do it again); static ambition (incumbents ran for elected office in the past and plan to run for the same position in a new election cycle); and progressive ambition (incumbents plan to run for higher elected office) (Schlesinger 1966; Palmer and Simon 2003). This distinction is especially important to reveal gendered differences in career preferences between female and male incumbents. The obvious question is are female incumbents more likely to withdraw from public service after serving their first term? If so, then the focus on discrete ambition also allows studying the effects of strategic political environment and personal conditions to reveal impeding factors for women s advancement into politics. As such, in our analytical model we will be focusing on the difference between discrete ambition, desire to withdraw from public service, and static ambition, desire to run for a new term, coded as one dependent variable. We will study progressive ambition, plans to pursue a higher elective office, as a separate variable. To explore the effects of various factors on the incumbents propensity to continue their public service, we draw on extensive literature on gendered candidate emergence and identify three main groups of factors to explore: the structure of political opportunity, socio-economic factors and family structure, and attitudinal factors, including initial political ambition and attitudes about political process. Below we discuss each of these factors. The Structure of Political Opportunity Comparative institutionalist research reveals the impact of various political institutions and policy mechanisms on women s representation worldwide, however, not all of them are applicable to the case of local self-government offices in Russia. For instance, the Russian electoral system does not establish quotas for women, and gender quotas are found to be a powerful predictor for 7

8 women s arrival to a political office (Krook 2010; Paxton, Hughes, and Painter 2009; Schwindt- Bayer 2009; Tripp and Kang 2008). We identify several enabling institutional factors that can constitute the structure of political opportunity for incumbent heads of local self-government offices in Russia: political party and local party leadership; local and regional government; and interest groups and non-governmental organizations. The role of political parties in candidate nomination strategies is a well researched area in the U.S. context, however, the results of this research are inconclusive in terms of party effects for recruitment of women. Several studies have found that parties recruit more women as sacrificial lambs in those races which they cannot win (Gertzog and Simard 1981; Carroll and Strimling 1983). Other studies have shown that women can win and benefit from party nominations (Darcy, Welch, and Clark 1994; Burrell 1994; Crowder-Meyer 2013). Yet, other scholars show that party leaders bias can influence the candidate nomination process and reduce number of women candidates (Niven 1998). Similarly, Kira Sanbonmatsu finds that party control over nomination process negatively affects women s chances of being selected as a candidate (2006). Russia represents a considerably different political environment from the Western electoral process and party competition. Numerous scholars and analysts describe current gender regime in Russia as patriarchal, traditional, masculine, men-centric, and in many ways hostile to women candidates and politicians (Belyaeva 2008; Johnson and Novitskaya 2016, Riabov and Riabova 2014; Sperling 2014; Temkina 2013). With gender discrimination taking overt and open forms, we hypothesize that institutional support to female candidates and politicians becomes the main avenue for their arrival to local executive offices and a continuous institutional support is the main explanation for their decision to continue their service in elected position. At the local level, we suggest that party of power, the United Russia, may function as an institutional support to female 8

9 candidates. Sometimes party leaders can act independently from local government authorities in local elections and try to put their candidates into local positions of power. In this situation, a party candidate can be different from a candidate supported by the local government. In this situation, party leaders can act as a vehicle of support to candidates who would not have been chosen by local authorities. If parties are active in local elections, they can put forward women as candidates and support them in their campaign, elections, and their re-election bid. We hypothesize that parties, and in particular, the party of power United Russia, can be a vehicle for bringing more women into local politics. In a highly hierarchical governmental system, the vertical of power, each level of government has a great degree of control over decision-making at a subordinate level, most importantly, control over candidate nomination. Thus, support of the regional government can explain the process of candidate nomination at the local level. We hypothesize that women are more likely to run and stay in power if they are endorsed and nominated by local and regional government authorities or have considerable connections to them. In addition to these two factors of strategic political environment in Russian local politics, we explore a series of controls, such as support from local businesses, local civic organizations, and trade unions. Socio-Economic Factors and Family Responsibilities In addition to institutional factors that adversely impact women s chances of being nominated and elected, the scholarship discusses social roots of political inequality roughly grouped under family factors and socio-economic discrepancies between women and men (Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013). Women s private life responsibilities, such as carrying for other members of their families (husbands, children, and elderly parents, relations with extended families), household maintenance and duties, adversely impact their decision to get involved in politics 9

10 (Welch 1977, Thomas 2002). Women in politics are less likely than men to have children, and when they do have children they have fewer (Carroll 1989; Kirkpatrick 1974; Stalsburg 2010). Young children can put serious constraints on the ability of mothers to choose a career in elected office (Carroll 1989; Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013; Dodson 1997; Thomas 2002). Thus, women are more likely to get involved in politics at a much older age than men, when their children are grown. Similarly, spousal support of their decision to run for elected office is more important to women, than to men (Flammang 1997, Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013). We suggest that these factors can matter in a Russian context as well and include a series of questions to control for family and family responsibilities factors. Among other individual level factors, educational, socio-economic, and occupational differences between women and men are found to impact their decision to run for political office. Structural explanations put forward in a classical study of women s underrepresentation in the U.S. politics pointed out that women were less likely than men to have high income and hold advanced degrees, suggesting that women were not part of the traditional demographic group that constitutes that pool of candidates for political office (Welch 1977). Since then though, American women have made significant gains in terms of educational attainment, including holding degrees in business and law, and increased their share among high income occupations, but their gains in political representation remain significantly lower than the structural models would have predicted. Thus, the impact of socio-economic, occupational, and educational factors is significant, but not sufficient to achieve greater representation of women in politics. Recognizing the importance of these demographic factors, we add a number of controlling questions to our questionnaire. Initial Political Ambition and Attitudes about Political Process 10

11 Interest in politics and motivation to participate in political process is identified as one of the most important factors of why women do not run for political office in the U.S. (Fox and Lawless 2005, 2014). In several important studies women are found to have lower levels of political ambition and self-efficacy, than men. They also often assess their chances to win as much lower than men, and their attitudes about their suitability for public office is often lower than those of men (Lawless and Fox 2010). We include a series of questions to test if there is a difference in women s and men s initial decision to run for local political office. One of the main questions here is whether their decision was self-motivated ( It was entirely my idea to run ) or if they were encouraged or nominated by the third party ( I had already thought seriously about running when someone else suggested it and I had not seriously thought about running until someone else suggested it ). The first answer fits within the classic progressive political ambition model that assumes candidate self-motivation to run. The second and third answer falls under the relationally embedded candidate emergence model that is found to describe the behavior of female candidates. Women and men might have different views about how local politics works which can influence their decision to stay in public service. Here, we ask questions about their beliefs about political competition at the local level and then ask them to explore factors that can facilitate or impede them, such as policy position, candidate biography, candidate sex and ethnicity, support from local government, and other factors. We also include a series of questions about their beliefs about differences in political competition for men and women and ask to evaluate possible explanations for these differences (if they were identified). In the following sections we will present a brief overview of Russian self-governance offices and then discuss the results of our survey. Russian Local Self-Governance Offices 11

12 Following ratification of the European Charter of Local Self-Government, Russia reformed its local executive institutions to adopt a new model in The new system established executive offices with authority of decision making at the local level in a broad range of local policies and concerns. While these self-government institutions are undoubtedly built into the hierarchy of executive power in Russia, the 2003 reform provided considerable autonomy, including financial autonomy and local taxation, in areas concerning budget spending on local infrastructure, housing and maintenance, public order, land-use and land development, municipal schools, preschools and health care, and many other policy areas, as well as authority to monitor the implementation of these policies (Federal Law #131). Thus, the Russian state delegated significant authority to local self-government institutions in local matters. Municipal self-government institutions were established at several levels: municipal city okrug (large cities, often capitals of oblast, krais, and republics); municipal districts, or raion (this administrative unit coincided with Soviet districts which divided republics, krais, and oblasts into smaller administrative units); municipal urban settlements (towns and townships); and municipal rural settlements (often combining several small villages together). The heads of local selfgovernment institutions were to be elected by a direct public vote. The significant authority given to self-government institutions considerably empowered them in local decision-making and increased the competitiveness of the position of the heads of self-government institutions. In the course of a decade following the adoption of this law, local elections for the position of the head of self-government offices have seen significant rise in election competitiveness, especially in larger municipal units, such as cities, municipal districts, urban settlements with large tax base, and in some rural settlements. It is important to note that the intensity of competition depends on the significance and size of the administrative unit with elections in rural settlements being less 12

13 competitive, than elections at all other levels. During the time of economic recession, these positions became even more competitive, especially in those areas where jobs are scarce and jobs with guaranteed pay are even scarcer. In terms of women s representation as heads of local self-government offices, we recognize that women did not arrive in large numbers to these positions. In regions where we conducted research, women constitute a small fraction of heads of local self-government offices: 8% in Tatarstan (out of 563 positions), 11% in Sakha (out of 450 positions), 15% in Arkhangelskaya oblast (out of 165 positions), and 18% in Buryatia (out of 347 positions). It is important to note that the local level of political representation of women demonstrated one of the most dramatic changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union: women constituted up to 50% members of the local councils under the Soviet system. Their numbers fell to a mere 9% average country wide in 1997 (Kochkina 1999, ). 2 Research Design and Data To study women s underrepresentation in executive positions of local self-government offices in Russian regions we developed a survey questionnaire and conducted a mail survey of acting heads of local executive offices. Our questionnaire is based on the Survey of State Legislators questionnaire developed by the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP). Some of the questions are taken from this survey directly, some of the questions were adapted to Russian political context, some questions were omitted, and some questions were added. In total, the questionnaire included 39 questions organized into four sections: Your Current Position, Your Experience of Running for a Political Office, Your Social and Political Involvement; Personal 2 The Soviet system of local councils only roughly corresponds to today s local self-government offices. 13

14 Information. The full questionnaire can be reviewed in the Appendix. The questionnaire was translated into Russian and edited to fit the Russian political context. The English version (Appendix) is a back-translated version of the questionnaire. Our survey of current executives in four Russian regions took two phases. In December 2013, the first wave of 908 mail surveys was sent out to four regions of the Russian Federation (Sakha, Buryatia, Tatarstan, and Arkhangelskaya oblast). In these regions, the researchers identified all available information on current heads of local self-government offices, including their full names, electronic addresses, and mail addresses (out of 1525 positions, 908 had complete information and full addresses). All respondents whose addresses were identified first received an initial electronic letter informing them of the study and inviting them to complete the survey electronically. In this correspondence we also informed them of a mail survey sent to them. The mail packages included a letter fon the researcher s university letterhead addressed to the current head of a local executive office, a survey brochure, and a self-addressed return envelope (with no stamp). Non-respondents with addresses were subsequently re-contacted with reminder messages and additional electronic copies of the survey instrument. The survey response rate was low, but consistent across the regions: 19% in Buryatia, 18% in Tatarstan, 18% in Arkhangeslsksya oblast, and 17% in Sakha (Table 1). <Table 1 about here> In the fall 2014, we conducted the second wave of the same survey in Sakha Republic. At this time, the survey was administered by the Financial Economic Institute of the North Eastern Federal University in Yakutsk, Sakha Republic. The survey was sent to non-respondents of the first wave. The second wave employed a one-time contact sent by mail with a letter from the researchers, the survey instrument, and a self-addressed return envelope enclosed in the mail 14

15 package. The survey generated 33% response rate for this region 3. In total, we received 221 completed surveys from four regions of the Russian Federation. Women were more likely to respond to our survey than men: in Arkhangelskaya oblast they constituted 43% of respondents (as opposed to being 15% of the survey sample), in Buryatia they were 40% of the respondents (as opposed to being 18% of the survey sample); in Sakha they were 26% of the respondents (11 % of the sample), and in Tatarstan women were 20% of the respondents (and only 8% of the sample) 4. We also recognize that most of our responses are coming from the heads of rural municipal settlements, they constitute the majority of the mail sample. Below we present and discuss our main findings. Study Results We compared responses by region and did not find any statistically significant differences in four regions, hence we present data for all regions together. The data is organized and discussed in several blocks. First, we present descriptive data for men and women executives on their personal characteristics, election experience, and political ambition. Second, we present and discuss logit models on their decision to run for this position again in the next elections. Personal characteristics and family status We do not find any statistically significant differences between male and female heads of local executive offices in age, education, and ethnicity (run separately for each region). Men, on average, are present in all age groups, while women are absent in younger age groups: there is no a single woman younger 30 years old, while 2% of men are. Only 2.7% women are in category 3 This response rate is similar to response rate in 2008 CAWP Recruitment Study (Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013). 4 Other research finds that women are more likely to respond to surveys than men (Center for American Women and Politics Recruitment Study 1981, 2008). 15

16 30-35 years old, while 10% men are in this age category. But mean age for both men and women is similar at years of age. Table 2 present means for women in men in several categories. Many men and women executives have university degree, and very few have post-university degrees, but as the two-tailed test of means shows women have a significantly higher educational attainment than their male colleagues (Table 2). This is consistent with research in the U.S. which shows that valence of women running for public office is much higher than valence of similarly situated men (Fulton 2012). <Table 2 about here> In each region, men and women tend to have similar ethnic origins with both Russian and titular ethnic group being represented similarly by men and women heads of local executive offices. In terms of occupational backgrounds, most men and women heads of self-government offices tend to be public schools teachers and economists or accountants. The third occupation for men executives is engineering degrees of different types and degrees related to agriculture. For female executives, the third most common occupation is law and administration. We do not find significant differences in female and male occupational backgrounds that could suggest their different paths to political office. Female and male do differ significantly in their marital status: 94% of our male respondents are currently married, as compared to 66% of married female respondents. More women executives are divorced, 15%, compared to 3% of male respondents. 6% of female respondents were never married, compared to none of our male respondents. This difference is confirmed by t- tests: men are more likely to be married, than women. We suggest that marriage has a positive impact on men s ability to win a political office, but it does not have such association for female heads of local offices. 16

17 Almost all respondents have reported to have children, with two female respondents reporting none. There is no statistically significant difference in the number of reported children. Most female and male respondents reported having two or three children. But the question on the age of youngest child produces expected statistically significant differences between female and male respondents: only one woman reported having a small child age 0-3 years old (1.4% of the female sample), whereas 29 male respondents reported having young children (20% of the male sample). Only 4.2% women reported having children from 0-6 years old, while 25% men executives had children age 0-6. More women reported having grown up children (24 years old and older) - 33% of the female sample, and 25% of the male sample reported having children in this age category. This difference between two samples is strongly significant, as the t-tests show. Men and women recognized that having grown up children was an important factor for their decision to run for elected office: 75% of women strongly agreed or agreed with this statement, and 53% male viewed this factor as very important or important. This is a statistically significant difference in response though (Table 2). We conclude that family status and having small children have had differential impact on female and male executives in local political offices in regional Russia. Married men tend to become candidates and run successful campaign for local self-governance offices, while marital status is not a significant factor for female political aspirants. Men politicians are not impeded by having small children; while for female politicians, having small children can pose a particular obstacle for running in campaigns and competing for political office. Similar to findings in Western democracies, female executives in Russian local executive offices tend to have grown up children (Carroll and Sanbonmatsu 2013). Term and election experience 17

18 Most of the female and male executives were elected to their current position of the head of a self-government office (98% men and 95% female executives), as opposed to being appointed (very few cases). There is no statistical difference between female and male executives in the term they are serving in this position: 56% male and 49% female executives are serving their first term, 21% male and 26% female executives are serving their second term; 16% male and 15% female incumbents are serving their third term in their current position (Table 2). There is statistically significant difference in party membership between female and male executives: 71% female and 48% male executives are party members and ran as party members for this position. 52% men ran as independents and only 28% women ran as independents. Most people who reported being member of a party, reported membership in the party of power, the United Russia. Only four men reported being members of the Just Russia party. 60% men and 80% women reported that their party is active or very active in local elections. This is a statistically significant difference in responses. Yet 19% male and only 5% female executives reported attending training seminars on political campaigns and elections for potential candidates. This is a statistically significant difference in responses, suggesting that women are not being trained and groomed for local political campaigns, but the number of male political candidates who went through special training is also low. Men and women respondents did not display significant difference in answering the question about how competitive their election was and who was their main competitor (party- or non- party candidate; incumbent or not, male or female candidate). Respondents reported low membership in non-governmental organizations (NGOs): only 19 men and 9 women indicated being a member of an NGO. This data reflects that NGOs are generating political participation in Russia s biggest cities; but they are virtually absent in peripheral and rural Russia. This is a very 18

19 distinct pattern from Western democracies, where NGOs serve as vehicles for women s empowerment (especially for Democrat women) and often become those ladders that take women to a public office (Burrell 1994; Rozell 2000). To sum up this section, we report finding differences in party membership between female and male executives with women tending to be members of the United Russia more often. Women are also more likely to indicate their party is active in local elections. Political ambition and political beliefs One of the main questions discussed in the political ambition literature is whether decisions to run for elected office reflect self-motivation of a candidate or if a candidate was persuaded to run by others. Men and women in our survey sample answered this question similarly: 29% of men and 28% of female stated that it was their own decision to run for elected position; 45% of men and 41% of women stated that they were thinking about running and they were approached by someone asking them to run for elected office; 23% of men and 30% of women stated that they did not think about it and they were approached by someone with an offer to run for an elected office. Overall, there is no statistically significant difference in these responses by gender (see Table 2 for comparison of means). Men and women also did not diverge in their answers to the question about who influenced their decision. People close to the candidate had greater influence on their decision: a spouse, a family member, and close friends. In their response to an open ended question about their source of motivation, both men and female respondents stated that approval and requests from citizens of their village/town was another important motivating factor. Overall, we do not find significant differences between answers to this question from female and male respondents. 19

20 We do find a difference in answers to the question, if they are planning to run for the same position in the next election cycle: 61% male and 42% female respondents said definitely yes and probably yes. 20% male and 46% female executives said definitely no and probably no, revealing a large gender gap in motivation to run for elective office among political incumbents (Table 2). Thus, female incumbents in Russian regions are more likely than men to reveal discrete ambition, I occupy this position now, but I do not plan to run for it again, just like congressional widows in the U.S. history (Palmer and Simon 2003). Male incumbents are more likely, than female incumbents, to have static ambition: they are planning to run for this position again to establish their own long-lasting presence in local politics. The story becomes even more intriguing when we analyze answers to our open-ended question about which position these executives would like to move to, if they do not run for this office again. Among women who reported they did not want to take part in the next elections, many indicated they want to move to an appointed position in local or regional administration. Most men, who said they do not want to run said that they want to move to a position higher than they currently occupy, including competing at elections for higher office. This is a remarkable difference in responses that sheds light on how women unfriendly and gender insensitive the Russian political system is. Are there any differences in political beliefs that help explain this difference in political ambition? We ask a range of questions trying to find factors that might explain different predispositions of male and female incumbents on their beliefs about how political process and competition works, but we do not find any statistically significant differences in male and female responses. 20

21 We ask which factors best explain the decision to run for political office and list a battery of factors ranked very important, important, not important, do not know. Men s and women s answers were strikingly similar. They did not differ for importance of financial resources, spousal support, previous experience in administration, relevance of occupation, significant connections to local business, support from local administration, seminars and training for political candidates, self-efficacy (I can make changes!), my personal position on key local issues, and my desire to become a politician. There is only one issue that was viewed differently by women and men: my children have grown up and I could run for elected office : more women, than men thought it was an important factor for their decision to run for elected office. Neither men nor women thought that having significant connections in local government was an important factor for their decision to run for political office. This is an important finding that clarifies our institutional hypothesis about the importance of support from local government. This hypothesis also did not find support in the next question, which factors help candidates win the elections: both men and women did not think that having support of local administration was an important factor in their electoral victory. Overall, answering this question, men and women thought similarly about the importance of the party of the candidate, party position on important policy issues, candidate s position on important policy issues, candidate gender, candidate ethnicity, and candidate connections in local or regional administrations. Male and female respondents did think differently about the importance of candidate biography, with female respondents more likely to view it as a very important factor for winning elections, while male respondents think it might be less so. Both male and female respondents are split in their views on gender bias in politics question. In their answer to the question, if it is harder for female candidates to win local elections, 41% men and 49% women stated that it is harder for 21

22 female candidates to win local elections. Table 2 shows no statistically significant difference in male and female responses (under Women win local elections ). Among those who recognized gender bias, 47% of male and 46% of female respondents stated that the number one barrier for women s advancement is that women candidates lack connections. The second most important barrier indicated by men is women candidates lack support of the population, the second most important barrier to women s advancement indicated by women is women candidates lack experience. In sum, we do not find differences in beliefs between female and male incumbents that could explain remarkable difference in their decision to run for the same office in the next election cycle. This question we explore in detail in the next section. Decision to run in the next elections among the female and male incumbents In this section, we explore those factors that can shed light on the remarkable difference in male and female executives decision to run in the next election cycle. This analysis will help us understand which factors can have a positive impact on women s participation in Russian local politics. To explore this question in detail, we employ ordered logit models to analyze responses to the question, if they are planning to run for the same position in the next election cycle. The answers are coded as 1 definitely not, 2 probably not, 3 - undecided, 4 - probably yes, 5 definitely yes. Table 3 presents the results of the ordered logit model for responses received from both male and female survey participants. <Table 3> In this model we explore several factors that can adversely impact incumbents decision to run for the same position again. In Model 1, we explore four factors, being a female incumbent, party membership, previous position in government, and their term. Three findings are striking: 22

23 female politicians are less likely to run in the next elections; party membership has a statistically significant positive impact on this decision, and current term has a statistically significant negative impact on this decision. 5 Model 2 adds additional controls for age, education, and respondents answer to two question, if it was their idea to run, and if party support was important for their election. Our general expectations for these controls were that age would have a negative impact, older men and women executives would be less likely to run again; and more educated people would be more likely to run again than less educated people. For the question on political ambition, we expected those people who said it was their own idea to run for public office, to be more likely to run again, than those who were invited to run. For the question on party support, we expected those incumbents who were supported by their party in previous elections, will run again. The findings from this model confirm that women are less likely to run again and that the term in the office has a negative impact on incumbents propensity to run in a new election cycle. Among added controls, party support has an expected positive impact on decision to run again; age has a statistically significant result with older executives being less likely to run again. The political ambition question finds support as well: those individuals who stated that it was their own decision to run, are more likely to run in new election cycle. Model 3 adds controls for marital status (1- unmarried, divorced, and separated ; 2 married ) and having small children (0-6 years old). None of these controls reach statistically significant levels for the whole sample, but all other 5 It is important to note that the Federal Law on local self-government offices does not set any term limits for elective officials, thus we do not control for term limits in this model. A large portion of our sample (50% men and 48% women) are serving their first term. Only two people indicated inability to run because of term limits, perhaps locally imposed, thus they were excluded from this analysis. 23

24 factors (being a female politician, term, party support, age, and self-initiated political ambition) hold in this extended model. We reran the same models for men and women separately to see if their answers are different. The findings for male executives responses are presented in Table 4. The findings for female executives are presented in Table 5. We find important differences, which we are discussing below. <Insert table 4> <Insert Table 5> Party membership had a differentiated impact on female or male decision to run again. For male incumbents, party membership is positively correlated with their decision to run again, although party effect disappears when we add controls. For female incumbents, party membership has a negative correlation with their decision to run in new election cycle, as seen in Model 2 and Model 3. This puzzling effect can be explained by the fact that almost all female incumbents are party members, but not all of them consider running again. Thus, party membership does not guarantee party support for female incumbents. For male incumbent three individual level factors explain their decision to run for executive political office again: age, term, and self-initiated political ambition. Term in office has an expected negative association with their propensity to run in a new election cycle. Age too is negatively associated with male incumbents decision to run again: older men are less likely to run again. Those men, who stated that it was entirely their own idea to run for elected office are more likely to run for this position again. Thus, men in Russian local politics follow a classic political ambition model: self-initiated ambition helps them to win political office and maintain their 24

25 presence in local politics until they are ready to retire. Politically ambitious men are rewarded in current political system. For female incumbents, the political reality is very different. The only statistically significant factor for female incumbents decision to run for reelection is party support. Female incumbents are more likely to run in a new election cycle only if they are supported by political party in elections. This reveals that the arrival of female politicians in Russian local politics follows a relationally embedded model of candidate emergence: female politicians arrive and stay in positions of power only if they are supported by other political actors, such as parties. Conclusion Our survey results demonstrate that women and men have some of the same influences, but they also take different paths to leadership positions at local self-government offices in peripheral Russian regions. Female and male politicians were similar in age, term they were serving as heads of local self-government office, their occupational backgrounds, and the propensity to have a self-initiated political ambition as a main motivation for their decision to run for a local political office. But we also find significant differences in their life situations and political career decision making. We find married men are better positioned than unmarried men in competition for a head of a local self-government office. Marital status does not have any impact on women s chances to arrive to political office as we see many more divorced, separated, or never married women become heads of local self-government offices, than men. This finding is only partially consistent with comparative results from other states, where both married men and women are more likely to run and win in local elections. 25

26 While both male and female incumbents are likely to have children, having young children has a differential impact on female and male executives: men with young children do become heads of local offices; while there are virtually no women with children 0-3 years old in these positions. Child rearing and caring responsibilities inhibit women from competing for a local political office. This finding is very consistent with worldwide research on family responsibilities and candidates chances to win elections. Women with small children in many comparative settings are poorly situated to run in elections. Political factors are very important to consider when one analyzes women s chances to compete in local politics in Russia: female executives are more likely than male executives to be party members and run as party candidates. Women are also more likely to report that party support was important for their victory in their first elections. As all women indicated being members of the United Russia, it becomes important to consider the party of power as a vehicle for bringing women into local politics. Men, on the other hand, are equally as likely to run and win as independents and are less dependent on party support in their victory for elected seat. The effect of party support becomes even more important for understanding and explaining women s decision to run for re-elections. Those women who indicated party support was very important for their first election tend to plan to run for the next term. Party membership per se does not help women to arrive to elective political office, only if party actively support female candidates female incumbents are likely to run for reelection. Local party organizations, then, can be considered a machine for empowering women and bringing them into politics. Our findings suggests avenues for possible changes to political practice. If party is so important for women s arrival into local politics, then it is obvious that party recruitment and candidate nomination strategies should change to include more women in this processes. In a 26

27 hierarchical political system, like the one in Russia, this change can be accommodated by the top party leadership, and trickle down the party rank and file to a local level. This change of party practice can be quite important and timely now, because trying times require innovative and inclusive decision-making strategies for responding to social and political challenges. Women politicians and decision makers might be better situated than siloviki to deal with rising poverty and unemployment, deteriorating health, soaring mortality rates, and depopulation of Russian regions. Some recent observations demonstrate that the Russian state is becoming more inclusive of female politicians (Johnson 2016). We hope this trend takes hold and become the new Russian political mainstream. References Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, and David Rohde Progressive Ambition among United States Senators: Journal of Politics 49(1): Black, Gordon S A Theory of Political Ambition: Career Choices and the Role of Structural Incentives. American Political Science Review 66(1): Bledsoe, Timothy, and Marry Herring Victims of Circumstances: Women in Pursuit of Political Office. American Political Science Review 84(1): Belyaeva, G.F Politicheskaya Aktivnost Zhenschin v Rossii. Voprosy GOsudarstvennogo I Munistipalnogo Upravleniya (1): Accessed at Burrell, Barbara A Woman s Place is in the House: Campaigning for Congress in the Feminist Era. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. 27