Lesson-1. Introduction to Business Economics

Transcription

1 Lesson-1 Introduction to Business Economics Economics has been recognized as a special area of study for over a century. Virtually, all four-year colleges offer courses in economics and most of them allow students to major in the subject. Economists maintain high profiles in governments and have been well represented among the highest appointees in the federal government of the United States. The press reports on their doings and sayings, sometimes with praise and admiration and sometimes with ridicule and scorn. Economics and economists are words that almost everyone has heard of and uses. But what exactly is economics? A very few people can give a good definition or description of what this field of study is all about. If ordinary citizens cannot give a good definition or description of economics, they can be excused because economists also took long time to define their own field. In recent years, the subject matter that economists have studied has expanded, making its boundaries less defined. In recent years, for example, economic journals have published papers on topics such as sex, crime, slavery, childbearing and rats. It is not surprising that if one economist, in a lighter moment, suggested that economics can be defined as what economists do. Defining economics as what economists do does not tell anything which one did not already know. A good definition should explain what it is that makes economics a distinct subject, different from physics or psychology. One should not expect to find a short definition that conveys the message with absolute clarity. No one should believe that there is only one correct definition possible. Many good definitions are also possible and each will focus on some important aspect of the subject. To use an analogy, there is not one spot from which one can best view Niagara Falls. Each viewpoint obscures some features and emphasizes on others. There are, ofcourse, some spots that are clearly superior to others but people can disagree on deciding the best amongst them.

2 Slide 1 Introduction to Economics The economic problem Opportunity cost Production possibility frontiers Slide 2 The Economic Problem Unlimited wants Scarce resources-- Land, labor, capital Resource use Choices Slide 3 The Economic Problem 1. What goods and services should an economy produce? Should it emphasize upon agriculture, manufacturing or services or should it be on sport and leisure or housing? 2. How should goods and services be produced? Labor intensive, land intensive, capital intensive? Efficiency? 3. Who should get the goods and services produced? And even distribution? More for the rich or for those who work hard?

3 Slide 4 Opportunity Cost It is the cost expressed in terms of the next best alternative sacrificed Helps to get the true cost of decision making Implies valuing different choices Slide 5 Production Possibility Frontiers 1. Show the different combinations of goods and services that can be produced with a given amount of resources? No ideal point on the curve Any point inside the curve suggests that resources are not being utilised efficiently Any point outside the curve means not attainable with the current level of resources Useful to demonstrate economic growth and opportunity cost Slide 6 Production Possibility Frontiers Capital Goods Yo A Y1 B Xo X1 Consumer Goods

4 Slide 7 Production Possibility Frontiers Capital Goods C Y1 Yo A.B Xo X1 Consumer Goods Slide 8 Positive and Normative Economics Health care can be improved with more tax funding Pollution control is effective through a system of fines Society ought to provide homes for all Any strategy aimed at reducing factory closures in deprived areas would be helpful Positive Statements Capable of being verified or refuted by resorting to fact or further investigation Normative Statements Contains a value judgement which cannot be verified by resort to investigation or research What is economics? One of the earliest and most famous definitions of economics is given by Thomas Carlyle who in the early 19th century termed it as dismal science. Carlyle noticed the anti-utopian implications of economics. Many of the utopians, people who believe that a society of abundance without conflict is possible, believe that good results come from good motives and good motives lead to good results. Economists have always doubted this and it was the forceful statement of this disagreement by early economists such as Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo that Carlyle reacted to. Another definition of the early phase which is perhaps more useful is given by an English economist, W. Stanley Jevons, who in the late 19th century wrote, Economics is the mechanics of utility and self interest. One can think of economics as the social

5 science that explores the results of people acting on the basis of self-interest. There is more to man than self-interest and the other social sciences, such as psychology, sociology, anthropology and political science, attempt to tell about those other dimensions of man. The assumption of self-interest underlies virtually every economic theory. At the turn of the century, Alfred Marshall s Principles of Economics was the most influential textbook of economics. Marshall defined economics as, a study of mankind in the ordinary business of life; it examines that part of individual and social action which is most closely connected with the attainment and with the use of the material requisites of wellbeing. Thus, it is on one side a study of wealth; and on the other, and more important side, a part of the study of man. Many books of the period covered in their definitions something about the study of exchange and production. These kinds of definitions revolved around economics based topics. These definitions reflected upon processes involved in meeting people s material needs. Today, the economists do not use these definitions because the boundaries of economics have expanded. Although exchange always remains at the heart of economics yet the economists study more than exchange and production. Most of the contemporary definitions of economics involve the notions of choice and scarcity. Perhaps the earliest of these is given by Lionell Robbins in According to him, Economics is a science which studies human behavior as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses. Virtually, all textbooks have definitions that are derived from this definition. Though the words used differ from author to author yet the standard definition is more or less the same. Economics is the social science which examines how people choose to use limited or scarce resources in attempting to satisfy their unlimited wants. In other words Economics is the science of choice, i.e. the science that explains the choices that we make and how those choices change as we cope with scarcity. It should be noticed that scarcity is central in all the definitions. Scarcity and Choice Scarcity means that people want more than is available. Scarcity limits us both as individuals and as a society. As individuals, limited income, time and ability keeps one away from doing and having all that one might like. As a society, limited resources (such as manpower, machinery and natural resources) fix a maximum on the amount of goods and services that can be produced. Scarcity requires choice. People should choose which of their desires they will satisfy and which they will leave unsatisfied. When a person, either an individual or as a society, choose more of something, scarcity forces him/her to take less of something

6 else. Economics is sometimes called the study of scarcity because economic activity would not exist if scarcity did not force people to make choices. When there is scarcity and choice, there are costs. The cost of any choice is the option or options that a person gives up. For example, if you gave up the option of playing a computer game to read this text, the cost of reading this text is the enjoyment which you would have received playing the game. Most of the economics is based on a simple idea that people make choices by comparing the benefits of option A with the benefits of option B (and all other options that are available) and choosing the one with the highest benefit. Alternatively, one can view the cost of choosing option A as the sacrifice involved in rejecting option B. One chooses option A when the benefits of A outweigh the costs of choosing A which are the benefits one loses when one rejects option B. The widespread use of definitions emphasizing choice and scarcity shows that the economists believe that these definitions focus on a central and basic part of the subject. This emphasis on choice represents a relatively recent insight into what economics is all about. The notion of choice is not stressed in older definitions of economics. Sometimes, this insight yields rather clever definitions. According to James Buchanan, An economist is one who disagrees with the statement that whatever is worth doing is worth doing well. Buchanan noticed that time is scarce because it is limited and there are many things one can do with one s time. If one wants to do all things well, one should devote considerable time to each and thus, should sacrifice other things. Sometimes, it is wise to choose to do something quickly so that one has more time for other things. What is a science? Should we accept claims of economists who say they are scientists? To decide, we should first know what science is. Philosopher Karl Popper s widely accepted definition of science says that a statement is scientific only if it is open to the logical possibility of being found false. This definition means that scientific statements are evaluated by testing them and by comparing them with the world around us. A statement is non-scientific if it takes no risk of being found false. It means that there can be no way to test a statement against observable facts or events. Popper called this distinction the line of demarcation. An implication of Popper s definition is that one can never be completely sure that any scientific theory is true. Accepted scientific theory is the only theory that has not yet been contradicted by evidence, though the future may bring a contradiction. For example, one cannot be absolutely sure about the statement, The sun will rise in the east tomorrow. This statement is true because it is a scientific statement. One can easily think of a logical possibility that would refute a statement, A sunrise in the west. One can confidently reject this statement in a view that such an event will not happen because the sun has always risen in the east. However, the fact that all previous

7 experiences have been consistent with the statement does not prove that the statement will never be refuted. Popper saw the growth of scientific knowledge as a process of conjecture and refutation. Someone originally comes up with a way of explaining a set of facts, i.e. a conjecture or guess or theory about how the facts are related. If further observation is inconsistent with the theory, the theory is considered refuted and a new theory or conjecture is found. In contrast, if the original explanation is non-scientific, it will never be refuted and there will never be any need to change beliefs. Most of the economists see their discipline as scientific in Popper s sense of the world. An economic theory makes statements about how facts fit together. There are constantly new sets of facts arising that allow one to test the theory to see whether the facts are similar to the predictions of theory. However, this process is more difficult for economists than it is for physical scientists. Unlike physical scientists, economists can almost never use controlled experiments to gather facts with which to test theories. Rather they have to use whatever facts the world gives them and rely on statistical procedures to draw conclusions. Though statistical procedures let economists hold some variables constant to see the effect of other variables just as a controlled experiment does yet they are subject to serious limitations. If there are variables that a theory says are important but cannot be measured or can be measured only imperfectly, statistical procedures may give misleading results. The procedures also may fail if a theory is uncertain. The strength of a properly done controlled experiment is that there is no need to list all the factors that are controlled. The procedure is such that only one factor, or a small and known group of factors, is different between the control and experimental groups. Given these difficulties, it is not surprising that the controversy about whether a theory is supported or rejected by the facts can last for many years in economics. However, there is a minority of economists who do not see economics as scientific in Popper s sense. A group of economists called the Austrian school, for example, has argued that economics starts with assumptions and economic theory is the logically deduced result of those assumptions. If a theory does not fit the facts, one cannot conclude that the theory is wrong. It is only inappropriate to apply the theory in that particular situation because the initial conditions do not agree with the assumptions of the theory. Besides distinguishing between scientific and non-scientific statements, one can make a positive/normative distinction. Positive and Normative Economists make a distinction between positive and normative which stands parallel to the Popper s line of demarcation. David Hume explained it well in 1739 and Machiavelli used it two centuries earlier, i.e. in A positive statement is a

8 statement about what is and contains no indication of approval or disapproval. A positive statement can be wrong. The moon is made of green cheese is incorrect but it is a positive statement because it is a statement about what exists. A normative statement expresses a judgment about whether a situation is desirable or undesirable. The world would be a better place if the moon were made of green cheese is a normative statement because it expresses a judgment about what ought to be. It should be noticed that there is no way of disproving this statement. If one disagrees with it, one has no sure way of convincing someone who believes the statement made is wrong. Economists have found the positive-normative distinction useful because it helps people with very different views about what is desirable to communicate with each other. Libertarians and socialists, and Christians and atheists may have very different ideas about what is desirable. When they disagree, they can try to learn whether their disagreement stems from different normative views or from different positive views. If their disagreement is on normative grounds, they know that their disagreement lies outside the realm of economics. So, any economic theory and evidence will not bring them together. However, if their disagreement is on positive grounds, further discussion, study and testing may bring them together. Economists can confine themselves to positive statements but only a few are willing to do so because such confinement limits what they can say about issues of government policy. Both positive and normative statements should be combined to make a policy statement. One should make a judgment about what goals are desirable (the normative part) and decide a way to attain those goals (the positive part). Economists often see cases in which people propose courses of action that will never get them to their intended results. If the economists limit themselves to evaluate whether or not proposed actions will achieve intended results, they confine themselves to positive analysis. One should realize that although economists can speak with special authority on positive issues yet even the best could be wrong. However, most of the economists prefer a wider role in policy analysis and include normative judgments as well. On normative issues, an economist cannot speak with special expertise. Addressing most of the normative issues ultimately depends on how one answers the following question: What is the meaning of life? One does not study economics to answer this question. Most of the statements are not easily categorized as purely positive or purely normative. Rather, they are like tips of an iceberg with many invisible assumptions hiding below the surface. Suppose, for example, someone says, The minimum wage is a bad law. Behind this simple statement are assumptions about how to judge whether a law is good or bad (or normative statements) and also beliefs about what are the actual effects of the minimum wage law (or positive statements).

9 Unintended Consequences The conventional definitions of economics ignore an important aspect of the field. Economists are not interested in examining every case of actions based on costs and benefits. They are interested only on those that have some sort of unexpected or unintended consequences. Because people live in so complex systems that they cannot fully understand them, their choices can have system-wide implications that they themselves neither intended nor expected. Economics starts with individuals making choices based on self-interest but it is primarily interested in how these actions affect society as a whole. Do these choices lead to chaotic results or to harmonious ones? The economists concern with unintended consequences of human choice and action leads them to argue that good results do not necessarily come from good intentions and good intentions do not necessarily lead to good results. In contrast, some parts of our popular culture believe that intentions determine results. For example, people who try to find a conspiracy behind all the world s problems whether that conspiracy is of communists, Jews, bankers, the CIA or multinational oil companies, start with a belief that bad results come from bad people with bad intentions. As like any other field of study, economics has a history and there are books that attempt to trace the trail of economic thought back to its origins. Though the trail can be traced back to the ancient Greeks yet it is a difficult trail to follow prior to In 1776, Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations, a book that was clearly on economics and that inspired a large number of books, pamphlets and articles in the next 50 years. Before this book, most of the ideas about economics were scattered in writings that were mostly on politics or ethics or philosophy, not in books that were clearly on economics. If one looks at the topics and theories that modern economics textbooks contain and compares them to those things that Smith discussed, one is struck by how little of contemporary economics comes directly from Smith. What comes from Smith is a concern about and an interest in unintended consequences. The most famous term in the The Wealth of Nations is invisible hand. Smith used this term only once in the following quotation:...by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was not part of it. Another quotation makes clearer that what unintended consequences the invisible hand leads to: Every individual is continually exerting himself to find out the most advantageous employment of whatever capital he can command. It is of his own advantage, indeed, and not that of the society, which he has in view. But the study of his own advantage

10 naturally, or rather necessarily leads him to prefer that employment which is most advantageous to society. Smith was not sophisticated in the level of economic theory that he used. He did not understand the concepts that are considered basics at present, such as the model of supply and demand. Alfred Marshall developed the modern treatment of supply and demand a century after Smith. In his comprehensive survey of economic theory, Joseph Schumpeter dismisses Smith as a theorist by saying, The fact is that The Wealth of Nations does not contain a single analytic idea, principle, or method that was entirely new in Though the idea that there could be systematic unintended consequences was in the air at the end of the eighteenth century, no one articulated it better than Smith. Because he expressed so well the idea that these unintended consequences are of vital importance for understanding how a society works, Smith has often been called the father of economics. His book is concerned with a question that has aroused interest among economists for two hundred years. The question is as follows: Under what conditions are actions based on self-interest beneficial to society? Many economic theories have been developed and improved in an effort to get better answers to this question. The two most influential economists in the generation after Adam Smith were David Ricardo and Thomas Malthus. Though they disagreed on many things yet they were generally agreed upon the topic of population growth. Malthus is best known for his writings on this topic. He believed that there was a tendency for human populations to grow more rapidly than the food supply could be increased. Land was fixed in amount and more food could be produced either by tilling it more intensively or by adding less-productive land to tillage. In either case, an extra hour of labor brought less than an average return of food. The implication of these two different growth rates is clear-- eventually a segment of the population would face starvation and this would cut the growth rate of population. Malthus argument on population is related to possible unintended consequences. Suppose a society aids its most needy members by giving them food. As a result, they can survive and reproduce. Helping the poor would, according to Malthus argument, increase population and in the future lead to even larger numbers on the verge of starvation. Hence, charity would be self-defeating. All attempts to improve society seem doomed to failure, according to a strict reading of the Malthusian argument and a truly dismal conclusion, as Carlyle noted. However, Malthus and Ricardo were wrong when they applied this argument to human populations. The predictions they made did not occur. They underestimated both the capability of technology to improve crop yields and the future of birth rates. As it became apparent that they were wrong, economists lost their interest in the study of population. It seemed that they did not have the unintended consequences to explore. Since that time, economists have occasionally developed other clever theories with

11 intriguing possibilities of unintended consequences. This was done only to find that they too were in conflict with real-world experience. One should keep this in mind that one learns what contemporary economists believe. There is a possibility that today s secure truth may be tomorrow s embarrassing mistake. How to study Economics? Agatha Christie wrote a series of mystery novels in which she challenged the readers to outwit her fictional heroine, Miss Jane Marple. By the end of the book, a reader had the same facts that Miss Marple had. But the facts do not speak for themselves. Rather, it was Miss Marple s ability to look at those facts in a special way or to see something significant where most of the readers could not see anything which would let her solve the mystery. Facts in economics, as in an Agatha Christie novel, need to be organized in some way before they can tell one about anything. By themselves, they are meaningless. Thus, the study of economics involves more than a memorization of facts. Economics tries to organize facts with its theory. A good theory tells about which facts are important and which are not, and what is cause and what is effect. The study of economics involves learning about how to organize facts the way economists do. People who do not understand economics still try to make sense of the world around them by trying to see the pattern in the facts they observe. Sometimes they use a goodversus-bad model. In this model, there are two conflicting groups who are classified as good people and bad people. These groups are usually involved in a zero-sum game-- one person s gain is another s loss. Further, evil motives possessed by the bad people lead to bad results unless these people are in some way controlled. Good motives lead to good results. An example of a good-versus-bad viewpoint was expressed at a town meeting of a small Indiana community during the winter of The meeting focused on the natural-gas shortages that the community was facing. One citizen declared that the town faced not an energy problem but a pricing problem. He noted that several years back, there had been shortages of gasoline at 40 cents per gallon but no shortages at 60 cents. Therefore, he declared that there could be a conspiracy at that time by oil companies to increase prices and now it was the turn of the gas producers. The events he observed do fit into a good-versus-bad framework. He saw a bad result. He saw a bad motive-- the desire for profit seems to many people the same as greed or avarice. To connect motive and result, he inferred the existence of a conspiracy. Though a good-versus-bad model is sometimes appropriate (especially in small-group situations) yet economists are very reluctant to use it. The economic model of supply and demand gives a more sophisticated interpretation of the gasoline shortage-- one that is depersonalized and unemotional with no bad groups involved. This model suggests that, in case of shortage, one should search for government regulation of prices. The model does not suggest that such regulation is something one should look for. Infact,

12 there were price restrictions in place at the time and such restrictions could lead to shortages. The good-versus-bad view of the world is attractive because one is able to understand the model at a very young age and because one sees the model used so often as in fairy tales, in comic books, in movies and in television shows among other places. As one knows how to use this model and because our culture discourages use of alternative explanations such as fate or mystery, it is easy to fall back to this model if one does not have a more sophisticated model to explain one s world. Economic issues affect every individual and most of the people have opinions on them. These opinions may be based on a good-versus-bad view, some other non-economic framework, or simply slogans that are often repeated. Often the hardest problem that students have in learning about how economists interpret the world is to unlearn their old and non-economic views. Unlearning old ways of thinking can be difficult as a well-known example illustrates. In the late 15th century, Christopher Columbus believed that by sailing a relatively short distance to the West, he could reach Asia. Contrary to popular myth, it was Columbus, not his critics who had an outdated view of the world. He believed that the world was much smaller and that Asia was much larger than they actually are. His critics in their guesses were much closer to the truth. Columbus made four trips to the Caribbean but he never realized the significance of what he had found. He died believing that he had found a short cut to the Far East. Rather using the facts he had before him to alter and improve his ideas of world geography, he insisted on keeping his old views and trying to make the facts fit in. Economic education involves learning to see reality from new perspectives. Sometimes these new perspectives may surprise you. They may even shock you. But if you take some time to look at the reasoning behind these economic ways of looking at things, you will find that they consist of carefully thought out and applied common sense. Summary Economics is essentially a subject that looks at choices, such as how individuals, governments and businesses make the decisions and what are its consequences. It is likely to be a strong likelihood that every issue raised in the class involves some form of decision or choice. For example, if fines were the answer to poor attendance, the choice would have been to remain absent and get fined or to attend the class and avoid the fine. Then, the question would be how much of a fine is necessary for those who choose to remain absent? All this can be precisely summarized through the figure 1.1 which is as follows:

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14 Figure 1.1 The Economic Problem