Re-Framing Transboundary Water Politics: Opening

Transcription

1 Re-Framing Transboundary Water Politics: Opening Building the Water Agenda: Policy responses to scarcity and shock Chatham House, 9-10 July 2012 Mark Zeitoun Water Security Research Centre School of International Development University of East Anglia

2 Yes, there are no water wars but there are many tense and destructive water CONFLICTS

3 Absence of War does not mean the Absence of Conflict = Tensions causing destruction (for the most vulnerable in the weakest states) and worsening international relations

4 Reframing Transboundary Water Politics ULTIMATE CHALLENGE: Reconciling basin and aquifer boundaries with state borders (sovereignty vs common resources and community) (How) can transboundary waters bring peace or conflict? What are the drivers of conflict and cooperation? What policies and institutions can lead to agreements? What are the flashpoints for transboundary water conflicts? To Reframe first RE-THINK each of the above

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6 Re-Framing Transboundary Water Politics: What Really Matters for effective diplomacy Building the Water Agenda: Policy responses to scarcity and shock Chatham House, 9-10 July 2012 Mark Zeitoun Water Security Research Centre University of East Anglia

7 What Matters? POWER matters good analysis must incorporate interventions must confront NORMS matter interventions require a benchmark 1. Some helpful theory 2. Tigris and Euprhrates 3. Policy responses

8 1 Some helpful theory a) Politics driving water interaction b) Cooperation & Power c) Levelling

9 1a) Politics driving water interaction Environmental Determinism : Water can lead to peace We can learn from North America and Europe environmental peacemaking supposedly apolitical interventions, in very political contexts - Western-centric - ignores / wishes away politics -liberal assumptions about power and equality - little evidence of success Political Economy / Ecology : Water and society co-produced (Physical and Social water scarcity) Water is subordinate to larger forces (ideological, political, economic) enhancement of classic politics, diplomacy, international relations + look outside the box at economics, finance, food trade (i.e. the nexus) learn from mistakes made in other basins

10 1b) Cooperation Cooperation is poorly theorised, or understood either Conflict or Cooperation Wolf (2007)

11 1b) Cooperation BUT Dataset quality and interpretation issues Kalbhenn (forthcoming) TWINS Conflict and cooperation co-exist Liberal interpretation of cooperation Cooperative efforts can be part of the problem (teaties on Jordan and Ganges) because of power Mirumachi (2007)

12 1b) Power Power asymmetry is a fact of life but can be used to lead or to dominate. a fact of life Forms of Power: Hard Power (upstream position, military, economy) Soft Power (ideology, allies, discourse, etc)

13 1b) Power + Cooperation Not all cooperation is pretty [link] Hegemon s prerogative : Selective policy engagement ( cherry-picking responsibilities) Emphasise conflictive or cooperative face of interaction Agenda of basin hegemon (bully or leader) followed while alternatives offered by non-hegemons are ignored as not pragmatic or realistic (e.g. Bangladesh, Palestine ) hurried diplomacy can lead to perpetuation of conflict Zeitoun, Mirumachi, Warner (2011)

14 1b) Power + Cooperation Effective diplomacy requires: Cooperation to be evaluated in the specific political context Confronting power and power asymmetry a) Influencing Power (moving from basin bully to basin leader) Positive-sum outcomes, benefit-sharing, etc Sadoff and Grey (2002) seek standards, not just political pragmatism b) Challenging Power Level the players Level the playing field Phillips and Woodhouse (2010) Zeitoun and Jägerskog (2011)

15 1c) Levelling Level the players e.g. Capacity-building especially negotiations and lawyers (not just techno-managerial capacity) Level the playing field Objective Standards (to inform treaties): International Water Law 1997 UN Watercourses Convention no significant harm ; prior notification ; equitable and reasonable use In absence of agreed standards and principles, space for effective diplomacy is closed down

16 2 Tigris & Euphrates

17 Tigris and Euphrates With uncoordinated upstream development : is this the future also of Cambodia, Egypt, Bangladesh? Turkey Syria Development context: - Abstractions upstream - effect on livelihoods (&ecosystems) Political context: -Turkey as Basin Leader or Basin Bully? - Tri-lateral committee often bi-lateral -talk of benefit-sharing, oil for water, joint training, etc (soft power) - How effective is the cooperation? Interventions by UNDP, UNESCO, others: -Levelling the players without levelling the playing field? -What standardsare brought to the table (along with inducements)? Iraq Iran UN-IWTFI 2011 (Walther Casey) UN-IWTFI 2011 (Walther Casey)

18 3 Policy Responses

19 Policy Responses (last slide!) 1. Ask who says Power and Norms do NOT matter (i.e. who benefits from status quo)? POWER matters good analysis must incorporate look for evidence of and interpret soft power interventions must confront NORMS matter interventions require a benchmark a) Influencing Power moving from basin bully to basin leader b) Challenging Power Level the players Level the playing field Thank you m.zeitoun@uea.ac.uk

20 References Kalbhenn A and Bernaeur T forthcoming International Water Cooperation and Conflict: A New Events Dataset. Mirumachi N and Allan J A2007 Revisiting transboundary water governance: power, conflict cooperation and the political economy. Proceedings from CAIWA International Conference on Adaptive and Integrated Water Management: Coping with Scarcity, November 2007.Basel, Switzerland. Phillips D and Woodhouse M2010 Benefit Sharing in the Nile River Basin: Emerging Strategies for Fresh Water Use at the Country and Selected Sub-basin Levels, as Revealed by the Trans-boundary Waters Opportunity Analysis. Nile Basin Initiative, Socio-economic Development and Benefit Sharing component, Windhoek. Sadoff C W and Grey D 2002 Beyond the river: the benefits of cooperation on international rivers. Water Policy UN-IWTFI2011 Managing Change in the Marshlands: Iraq's Critical Challenge. United Nations White Paper.United Nations Integrated Water Task Force for Iraq. Wolf A T 2007 Shared Waters: Conflict and Cooperation. Annual Review of Environmental Resources Zeitoun M and Warner J 2006 Hydro-Hegemony: A Framework for Analysis of Transboundary Water Conflicts. Water Policy Zeitoun M and Mirumachi N 2008 Transboundary water interaction I: Reconsidering conflict and cooperation. International Environmental Agreements Zeitoun M and Jägerskog A2011 Addressing Power Asymmetry: How Transboundary Water Management May Serve to Reduce Poverty. Report No. 29.Stockholm International Water Institute., Stockholm. Zeitoun M, Mirumachi N and Warner J 2011 Transboundary water interaction II: Soft power underlying conflict and cooperation. International Environmental Agreements

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22 Misc Additional Slides

23 Tibet/ China BRAHMAPUTRA Nepal Bhutan India GANGES RIVER Bang. MEGHNA

24 2c) POWER Power asymmetry is a fact of life and can be used to dominate or to lead. a fact of life FORMS OF POWER HARD SOFT

25 2b) Cooperation Cooperation is poorly theorised, or understood Wolf (2007) either Conflict or Cooperation Zeitoun and Mirumachi (2008)

26 Naho Mirumachi Conflict and Cooperation Co-exist: TWINS approach

27 BASICS of WATER DIPLOMACY KNOWLEDGE Water Security through INTERDEPENDENCE OBJECTIVITY (in interests, and in standards)

28 KNOWLEDGE Climatic and social context Political context State of science Water Conflicts very context-specific, with unique local topography, use, traditions, issues, etc regional or bi-lateral, often hegemonic rivers good groundwater high uncertainty water security a policy goal Form of conflict Main Issues Distribution, Use water Scarcity(or surplus) scarcity a social + physical phenomenon + securitization (or de-securitization) of the resource Used together, the concepts can serve to maintaina water conflict, or(in theory) resolve it.

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30 Destruction of Water Infrastructure Palestinian water cistern in the West Bank, demolished by the Israeli Military. International Committee of the Red Cross (Michael Talhami)

31 Case Study -Iraq Growing Insecurity 30 years of instability; Growing Sectarian Divide Reduction in transboundary flows; Drying of the Marshlands; Resource deterioration; Climate Change; Food and energy security growing dependence on neighbors; Decline in technical and managerial capacity; Severely weakened negotiations position; and Limits economic development. International Committee of the Red Cross (Michael Talhami)

32 Reframing Transboundary Water Politics (How) can transboundary waters bring peace or conflict? What are the drivers of conflict and cooperation? What policies and institutions can lead to agreements? What are the flashpoints for transboundary water conflicts? To Reframe first RE-THINK each of the above