Patterns of Uptake and Public Opinion How Framing may have helped Newspapers steer the Public to the Exit

Transcription

1 Patterns of Uptake and Public Opinion How Framing may have helped Newspapers steer the Public to the Exit Bachelor Thesis English Language and Culture Utrecht University, Faculty of Humanities Yasmin Broere ( ) February 2018 First Supervisor: dr. D.L. Cole Second Supervisor: dr. S.J. Cook

2 Broere 2 Abstract This study aimed to investigate a possible relationship between uptake and public opinion during the 10-week Brexit referendum campaign. Previous research on this time period has demonstrated that the three most discussed issues during the Brexit referendum campaign in 2016 were the economy, immigration and sovereignty (Moore & Ramsay 34), while the NHS, employment and national security were also high on the list of most important issues (Duncan). In this thesis, 200 articles from the British red-top newspaper The Sun and black-top newspaper the Daily Mail are analysed and compared to the results of public opinion polls to find any patterns of similarity. This study demonstrates that the uptake by newspapers of terms such as Brexit, EU and immigration increased closer to the final week of the campaign, while attention to health care issues proved to remain low during the course of the 10-week campaign. For both newspapers and voters, control of the EU and immigration levels proved to be the most important issues in the campaign. The rising pattern in uptake of the term unemployment found in the content analysis of The Sun was paralleled by rising percentages, representing levels of importance, in public opinion polls. These findings suggest a relationship between patterns of uptake in newspapers and patterns of public opinion. Since direct relationships between public opinion and the media cannot be studied, it is argued that demographic information may provide us with an indirect way to track uptake of mediatized texts and their effect on public opinion.

3 Broere 3 Index Index 1. Introduction 4 2. Theoretical framework Historical background Theoretical background 9 3. Method Newspaper analyses Design Procedure Data-analysis Public opinion polls Procedure Results Content analysis The Daily Mail The Sun Public opinion polls Ipsos Mori YouGov polls Conclusion and discussion Conclusion Discussion Works cited Appendices Frequency tables Newspaper articles The Daily Mail The Sun Opinion Polls Ipsos Mori YouGov 104

4 Broere 4 1. Introduction The idea that public opinion is influenced by social media, has long been a topic of interest. The debate recently heated up again when, in February 2017, Russian nationals were accused of illegally [trying] to disrupt the American political process (Parlapiano and Lee par. 1). Russian trolls created hundreds of fake social media accounts making it look like they were Americans (Barett, Horwitz and Helderman par. 2). The messages, published in 2016, were intended to promote candidates Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders and to criticise candidate Hillary Clinton. Thirteen Russians were charged for identity fraud and for illegally interfering with the 2016 U.S. presidential election (Barett, Horwitz and Helderman par. 1). Hence, legal action was carried out against people for influencing public opinion in mediatized contexts. It has been claimed, however, that the media also try to influence public opinion during elections (Yaxley par. 1-3). Newspapers are argued to be the public s main source for political information and the question of whether they actively try to influence the nation s voting has long been a topic of discussion. In 1992, British red-top newspaper The Sun claimed responsibility for the outcome of the elections won by the Conservatives. The Sun has often appeared to successfully predict election outcomes, and therefore claims it influences its readership (Martinson par. 11; Analyse the Impact p. 3). After the Brexit referendum, held on June 23 rd, the debate about newspapers political influence came up again. The day following the referendum, The Guardian published an article with the headline Did the Mail and The Sun help swing the UK towards Brexit? and the BBC published the article EU Referendum: measuring the influence of the media. Huw Thomas, author of the latter, argues that newspapers have a direct influence on the audience. Much influence is in the process that preceeds the actual news reporting, namely in the agenda-setting part. Here newspapers decide what to discuss and what to leave out. They can decide to discuss certain topics more than others in order to make it a priority issue for the reader, or, they can completely exclude

5 Broere 5 a certain topic from the discourse. Consequently, newspapers also use framing techniques which determine how a news story is presented. Hence, framing is how newspapers decide what topics their readerships should think about and how they should think about them (Whitaker et al. 7-8). These strategies can help a newspaper steer its readership in a particular direction during election campaigns. This could mean that newspapers, just like the Russian trolls during the U.S. election campaign, aim to interfere with the election process. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate a possible relationship between framing in British newspapers and shifts in public opinion in the 10-week Brexit referendum campaign. An analysis of articles and public opinion poll results will be carried out to answer the two research questions: What are the word patterns used to frame the discussion about Brexit in British newspapers? And how do these patterns relate to patterns of public opinion seen in polls? First the historical and theoretical context of Brexit and media studies are discussed in chapter 1. Next the research method is explained in chapter 2, followed by the results in chapter 3. The conclusion and discussion of the results can be found in chapter 4 and references and appendices follow in chapter 5 and Theoretical framework 2.1 Historical background The past seven decades have seen a period of globalisation in which countries seemed to come together, work together and in which free movement, equal information access and rights were promised (O Rourke & Williamson 7). Globalisation is often regarded as an economic term and described by the Oxford Dictionary as the process by which businesses or other organizations develop international influence or start operating on an international scale, widely considered to be at the expense of national identity ( Globalisation ). Globalisation, however, affects many dimensions and its processes are plural (Pieterse 161-

6 Broere 6 162). In the political dimension, globalisation promised better inter-state relations, open borders and a global political unity (161). These developments would in turn affect the cultural dimension where national identities would make space for hybrid identities and the creation of a world citizen (Campe 2). It seems however, that globalisation has become an illusion, and that it has led to crises within borders as well as between states. In his 1998 publication Globalization and migration: Some pressing contradictions, Castles argues that open borders cause greater diversity, transform identities and blur traditional boundaries (179). His claims now seem to be reality as many western countries struggle with the consequences of international interconnectedness and decreasing state authority. In the United Kingdom, the consequences of globalisation and the decrease of state authority have been argued to have led to the nation s decision to leave the European Union (Kaufmann 3; Roubini par. 2). The UK has struggled with the EU s sovereignty from the moment they joined the European Economic Community (BBC 1 ). Figure 1 shows a timeline for the history of UK campaigns calling for an EU referendum. Consequently, recent migration flows have been proven to result in an in-state crisis and have caused problems predicted by Castles in In 2015, unemployment in the UK was the lowest since 1975 with a rate of 4.3% opposed to 7.08% in 1975 (Trading Economics). Nevertheless, unemployment was still high and left-wing political parties argued that migration was a main cause. The nation was told by political parties, such as UKIP and the Conservatives, that mass migration would have negative effects on healthcare, employability and housing, and that it would increase benefit costs and bring down salaries. Employment and the NHS, the UK s national health service, were therefore frequently discussed issues in the campaigns of political parties (Moore & Ramsay 58). 1 BBC Timeline: Campaigns for a European Union referendum (2015)

7 Broere 7 According to Ipsos Mori, one of Britain s biggest market research organisations, the NHS was the second most important issue in the 2016 referendum campaign. Arguments regarding the NHS stated either that the costs of the EU would be the cause for shortcomings in funding for the NHS, or that leaving the EU would have a negative effect on the UK s economy and therefore on NHS funding. Leave campaigners claimed that immigration had a negative effect on public services such as the NHS, since mass-migration coming into the UK causes an increase in demand for healthcare and, hence, a rise in healthcare costs (Scarpetta par. 6). Finally, employment in general was seen as an important issue in the campaign, by both Leave and Remain voters. It was claimed by right-wing, i.e. leave, campaigners that positions within the health service industry were mainly filled by migrant workers, which supposedly leaves British health care workers unemployed. Left-wing campaigners however, argued that since the NHS depends on migrant workers, leaving the EU would leave the NHS short-staffed. (Scarpetta par. 2). For Leave campaigners, jobs going to foreign workers in times of unemployment was the reason to vote for Brexit. For Remain campaigners, Brexit

8 Broere 8 was a threat to employment in the UK. They believed leaving the EU would mean a rise in unemployment, since multinationals situated in London would most likely move their headquarters to other international cities outside the UK (BBC). Kaufmann argues that Brexit was indeed motivated by economic reasons but that above all immigration was the incentive behind the decision. He claims that we need to look at attitudes and personalities of voters more than at the country s economic circumstances (1). He states that Brexit is about nothing more than xenophobia, the deep antipathy to foreigners ( xenophobia ), which expresses itself in Britain s strong aversion of immigrants (Brexit - Nationalism 1 2 ; Kaufmann 1). Further, it has been argued that anti-immigrant attitudes have always existed in the UK, but that the 2016 referendum legitimised immigration and all its xenophobic connotations into a mainstream political issue (Brexit - Nationalism 2). Anti-foreigners and nationalistic feelings, however, were claimed to be normal in times of crisis (Roubini). In the Brexit campaign, it was mainly the attitude towards different ethnicities and the fear of the consequences of them living in our country (Kaufmann 2). Newspapers have played an enormous role in establishing these negative attitudes and fears. Right-wing newspapers in particular, presented aggressive anti-eu headlines that appealed to populism and the sense of English nationalism (Corbett 20). Media coverage of immigration increased significantly during the 10-week campaign, and immigration was discussed more than any other issue (Martinson par. 3). Martinson states that three newspapers in particular, engaged in negative coverage of immigration: the Daily Mail, The Sun and the Express. As the pro-leave parties started bringing up the negative consequences of migration, pro-leave newspapers increased their coverage of the dangers migration brought about. Many front-page 2 See the ProQuest article Brexit - Nationalism or Xenophobic Populism? (2017)

9 Broere 9 articles saw pictures of refugees trying to enter the country in illegal ways. Main themes included a distrust of migrants, ethnic minorities and welfare scroungers (Corbett 22). 2.2 Theoretical background Newspapers and social media have been shown to play an increasingly important role in representing political views (Seaton 334). First world countries form a so-called information society, and thus individuals and institutions depend on endless information and communication streams to stay informed on world news (McQuail 1). Often, traditional media are the main source of economic and political information, and therefore the media is an important institution in society because of its responsibility to inform and to communicate (Gentzkow, Shapiro and Sinkinson 3074). Finnegan even argues that the biggest social responsibility of the newspaper is to make a success of democracy (167). It is the responsibility of the press to discuss issues regarding economics, welfare and politics and to provide viewpoints on these issues of both those in favour and those against, so that the reader is well-informed enough to take a stand in the discussion (168). It appears however, that most media outlets use certain discourse techniques to influence the reader s viewpoint (Cap xi). Cap claims that manufacturing fear and social anxiety is a common phenomenon in news writing (xi). As mentioned before, newspapers have proven to create frameworks that [help] in making an otherwise meaningless succession of events into something meaningful (Borah 50; Whitaker et al. 8). The framework determines the way in which a story is presented and it often involves specific metaphors, story-telling and word choice (Whitaker et al. 8). Analysis of the linguistic constructions used in frameworks is important, since newspapers often use recurrent set phrases or words which represent the way in which a story is framed (Cook, Robbins & Peiri 25). These set words or phrases can either be literally copied or recycled in a slightly different form. This process is called uptake.

10 Broere 10 Uptake is closely related to agenda-setting. Uptake refers to the action of taking up or making use of something that is available (Oxford Dictionary). Cole and Pellicer define it as a kind of perception or awareness of a fragment of semiotic behaviour that can lead to the recycling or reinterpretation of the fragment (451). This study takes a closer look at the uptake of the word Brexit in newspaper articles which were published in the 10-week Brexit referendum campaign. Brexit is a coinage which refers to Britain s exit from the European Union. The term was a transformed uptake of Grexit. In February 2012, economists Buiter and Rahbari, state that We are raising our estimate of the probability of a Greek departure from the euro zone ( Grexit ) to 50 per cent in the next 18 months. The term used here for the Greek departure of the euro zone was the beginning of a new uptake process. The term was taken up by other media and saw many coinages (Ludowig). In that same year Peter Wilding used the term and recycled it into a version that best suited the political situation in the United Kingdom. He wrote on social media Stumbling towards the Brexit. The term Brexit was slowly picked up again in 2015 in the months before the EU referendum was held. It was three years after its first use, that the uptake increased by 3,400% (Moseley). The following questions arise: What are the patterns of word use used to frame the discussion about Brexit in British newspapers? And how do these patterns relate to patterns of public opinion? Based on findings by The Guardian and Moore & Ramsay, in their study on dominating issues in British newspapers during the referendum campaign, this study will look at frequency of six keywords in news articles; Brexit, referendum, European Union, immigration, NHS and employment. Through the analysis of news articles, I will show how British newspapers used these words to frame stories that discussed issues which were important in the 2016 referendum campaign. Though, it cannot be determined whether newspapers intentionally tried to influence their readership, this study aims to demonstrate

11 Broere 11 whether such an influence was possible. To find a possible correlation between patterns of framing and public opinion, public opinion polls will also be analysed and compared to the rising frequency of the six lexical items in newspaper articles. 3. Method In order to determine whether newspapers try to influence the reader s opinion by framing techniques, an analysis of the content of news articles is needed. To find out whether public opinion moves in a similar pattern with the rising frequency of particular lexical items in newspaper content, an analysis of public opinion polls is also required. The study of newspaper discourses and that of the results of public opinion polls are separate analyses. In the end, the results will be brought together to investigate a possible relationship. 3.1 Newspaper analyses Design In this study, initially five newspapers were selected for research; Daily Mail, Daily Mirror, Daily Express, Daily Star, and The Sun. This study left elite newspapers out of the selection deliberately, because popular newspapers supported the Leave party in the 10-week Brexit campaign. Since a majority of UK citizens voted in favour of Brexit, the opinion of the popular press seems most in line with the public s opinion. Therefore, an analysis of the content of these newspapers seemed most interesting for comparing with public opinion to investigate a possible relationship between the two. However, the analysis of five newspapers proved too much to fit into ten weeks. Each newspaper published approximately 600 Brexit related articles, which resulted in over 3000 articles. Therefore, the decision was made to analyse only two newspapers and to further narrow the data set based on criteria explained below. From that point on, the study focused only on the Daily Mail and The Sun since these are the two most read popular newspapers in Britain and are therefore most likely to have influenced Britons in their decision to vote in favour of Brexit (Ponsford).

12 Broere Procedure To do the discourse analysis portion of this study, 200 articles per newspaper, published in the 10-week referendum campaign, which started on April 15 and ended June 22, were collected. Figure 2 shows the time frames for each week of the campaign. The articles were not collected randomly. The following key terms were used to search for articles with a Brexit related topic: Brexit, referendum, European Union, immigration, NHS and employment based on the main issues that concerned both political camps, namely mass migration, employment, the economy, healthcare and the EU s control over Britain. Since immigrants, migration and refugees all refer to the immigration issue discussed in the campaigns, all terms were combined into one search item. As for the search item European Union the frequently used abbreviation EU was included as well. For the search item employment, the words jobs and unemployment were included. The articles were all analysed in digital form taken from the websites of the relevant newspapers. Most newspapers have an online archive. The Daily Mail has a search system that could be refined to date but not to topic. Therefore, all articles published in the 10-week campaign were collected and sorted by hand using the following criteria: it 1) contained one of the key

13 Broere 13 terms, 2) concerned the United Kingdom and 3) that it clearly discussed the terms as being of importance for the referendum. Once for any one-week period 20 relevant articles were found, the search was moved to the next week until a sample was created with 20 articles for each week. The Sun required a slightly different search method since the online archive could not be refined to date. It was, however, possible to search for lexical items and therefore all articles that applied to the criteria were collected. From the population, 20 articles per week were randomly collected, so that a sample of 200 articles was formed Data-analysis First, it was established when a word was first used in the relevant newspaper. For coinages, such as Brexit, the first use of the word and the time span between that first use and subsequent uptake by newspapers were noted. Next, for each newspaper, a graph was created in which an overview was made of the number of occurrences for each key word from the first until the last week of the campaign. An example can be found in figure 3a. This way it becomes clear whether a word was increasingly used during the 10-week campaign. Frequency was measured by using the online algorithm Wordle. For each week, 20 articles were combined into one single text file and then put into Wordle. The algorithm counted how many times a term was mentioned and then created a word cloud (see figure 3b). To be included in the most frequently used words, the generator automatically set the minimum frequency on 20. All verbs, adjectives, adverbs and other irrelevant words that were mentioned more than 20 times, have been left out of the analysis. Another option of the algorithm showed a list with most frequently used words in the 20 articles. Consequently, the frequency of the previously mentioned key words were put into a table (Appendix 6). If for each newspaper other relevant terms were frequently mentioned they were also included in the table, but only if they were frequently used in at least 5 of the 10 weeks.

14 Broere Public opinion polls To investigate whether public opinion moves in a similar pattern with the rising frequency of the key terms analysed in newspaper content, this study also analysed public opinion polls. The polling data came from two official polling institutions: Ipsos Mori and YouGov UK. The results of all polls were made available online by the institutions and can be accessed for free.

15 Broere Procedure Since in the newspaper analysis several key words were used to investigate uptake, these same words were used in the collection of public opinion polls. All the polls that were included in this study ask questions in relation to Brexit, migration and the European Union. For instance, a poll would state: If we left the EU, would this have a good or bad effect on British jobs? or Which issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which way to vote? (YouGov, Ipsos Mori). Because most questions regarding the terms Brexit and EU stated, If there was a referendum on the British membership of the European Union, how would you vote?, graphs showing the public s voting intention have been included. The results of these polls have been put in a graph ordered by topic. By analysing these results, a conclusion can be made about whether the public s opinion has shifted over the campaign time. 4. Results First, a content analysis of newspaper articles has been performed investigating the topics that were most covered with special attention to the six key terms. The results of each newspaper will be discussed separately. Next, the results of public opinion polls will be discussed. 4.1 Content analysis To do the analysis, 200 Daily Mail articles have been collected and analysed. The results are divided per key word. First the results found for the Daily Mail will be discussed, followed by those for The Sun The Daily Mail Uptake of the term Brexit As mentioned before, the first ever use of Brexit was in a tweet by Peter Wilding in May The term was first uptaken by the Daily Mail in January The term was mentioned 929 times during the 10-week campaign. Figure 4 shows the frequency of mentions for the term Brexit for each week of the campaign. The term Brexit was frequently used in the 10-

16 Broere 16 week campaign, except for in week 3, where the generator only counted two mentions of the term. From that week, the term saw an increase in frequency with a peak in week 6, where it was mentioned 176 times. The term saw another peak in week 9, the week before the referendum, but fell down to 52 in the week the referendum was held Uptake of the term Referendum The term referendum was first used in relation to the 2016 EU referendum in January From this moment, the term has been used 85 times until December 31, Figure 5 shows the rate of uptake of the term referendum in 200 articles, during the 10-week referendum campaign. During the campaign, the word referendum was mentioned 624 times, which is seven times more often than it was used over the course of two years. According to the frequency minimum of 20, set by Wordle, the term is included in the list of most used words in all ten weeks. The number of mentions saw its lowest point in week two, where it came just above the 20 margin and its peak in the final week of the campaign.

17 Broere Uptake of the term EU/European Union The most frequently mentioned term in all weeks was European Union. Articles that mentioned the EU were only included if it was discussed in relation to the referendum. In total, the EU was mentioned 3304 times in the 10-week campaign. 188 of the 200 collected articles mentioned the EU, which means that the average frequency per article was As shown in figure 3 the number of mentions was low in week 2, where it was mentioned 196 times. The peak was in week six and from this week, the term remained close to 400 mentions per week until week 10 where it fell down to 297.

18 Broere Uptake of the term Immigration In this search item, other forms of the word were included as well. Other forms included; immigrant, migration, migrant, refugee and asylum seeker. Initially, the word asylum seeker was not included in the search item, but as it appeared to be a frequently mentioned word it was added to the search. Immigration was the second most covered issue in the 200 articles. Figure 7 shows the rate of uptake over 10 weeks in 200 articles. The Daily Mail started the campaign with a low number of mentions of immigration (66), but the rate of uptake saw a slow increase in the next three weeks with a decrease in week 5. From week 7, however, the rate of uptake saw a strong increase with a peak in the 10 th week of the campaign period, where the frequency hit 292.

19 Broere Uptake of the term NHS The NHS saw the lowest number of total mentions in the Daily Mail during the campaign period. Figure 8 shows the rate of uptake of the term in the 10-week campaign period. The minimum margin was only met three times: in week 5,6 and 9. In week 2,3 and 10 the NHS was not mentioned at all in any of the 200 collected articles. Since, the frequency for this term was extremely low, health care was included to the search item but this did not change anything in the number of articles that could be collected about the NHS or health care in relation to the referendum.

20 Broere Uptake of the term Employment As for the term immigration, multiple forms of the word employment were included in a search item. Employment and jobs were added to the search item, but only if discussed in relation to the Brexit referendum. Figure 9 shows how in the first three weeks of the campaign the term was not mentioned very frequently. In week three the frequency was below the minimum margin of 20. From that week, however, the rate of uptake saw an increase, which led to a peak in week 6. The frequency decreased after week 6 and ended with a frequency of 75 in the final week of the campaign.

21 Broere Other frequently used words During the analysis of the 200 articles, the word cloud generator showed many frequently used words. However, only a few were relevant for the context of this study. Three relevant terms have been added to the table (see appendix 6.1). The first term was Leave. This term was frequently mentioned every week of the 10-week campaign but it reached its peak in week 6 (see figure 10). An appearance of the term was only included if it referred to leaving the European Union. Another term that was mentioned frequently was membership. This term was used less frequently but it still exceeded the minimum margin except in week two (see figure 10). Finally, the economy was a frequently discussed topic in the 10-week campaign period. The frequency exceeded the minimum margin every week with a peak of 101 in week 6.

22 Broere The Sun The second newspaper which has been analysed was The Sun. The number of articles published by this newspaper was much lower than by many other newspapers, including the Daily Mail. During the 10-week campaign, The Sun published 981 referendum related articles. 20 articles were analysed for each week of the campaign. The results are discussed in the following paragraphs Uptake of the term Brexit The first time the term Brexit was mentioned by The Sun was July , which is three years after the first ever use of the term by Peter Wilding. The newspaper has mentioned the term 799 times during the 10-week campaign. The same method that was used for the nalaysis of the Daily Mail has been applied here. Since, especially in the first three weeks, The Sun published much less articles than the Daily Mail, fewer articles had to be cut out of the collection. Figure 11 shows the uptake of the word Brexit for each week of the 10-week campaign.

23 Broere 23 From the graph it becomes clear that the term was not as frequently used in the first six weeks as it was later on in the campaign period. In the first week, the frequency only just rose above the 20 margin, but an increase in uptake can be found from week four. The graph shows a peak in week nine, the week before the referendum Uptake of the term Referendum The term referendum has been mentioned 365 times. In the first week, the frequency did not pass the minimum margin, and therefore it was not included in the most used words of that week (figure 12). Striking is the peak in week two and the lowest point which immediately follows in week three, which is a decrease of approximately 92 per cent in one week s time. The frequency in week three is the lowest of all weeks and is far lower than the minimum margin of 20. In week 4 the frequency hits the minimum margin and from that week the frequency starts to rise again with its highest peak in week nine, after which it falls down to 36 in the final week of the campaign.

24 Broere Uptake of the term EU/European Union Figure 13 shows the the frequency of mentions of the term EU/European Union. The EU has been a frequently discussed issue in The Sun in all weeks of the campaign, with a total of 1813 mentions in 200 articles. It was the most frequently discussed term in 200 articles that were collected for The Sun. The frequency remained under 150 in the first six weeks but increased from week six. In the last three weeks of the campaign the EU was mentioned over 300 times in each week. Week 10 shows a peak of 366 mentions in one week. Hence, the number of times the EU was discussed at the beginning of the campaign, almost tripled during the last week.

25 Broere Uptake of the term immigration In total, immigration has been mentioned 950 times in the 200 articles that were collected for this newspaper. Figure 14 shows the frequency of mentions over the 10-week campaign. In week 1 to 4, the frequency remained under 50 mentions per week, with the lowest point in week three where the issue was not mentioned at all in the 20 articles. From that week the frequency started to increase with the highest frequency in the last three weeks. A peak can be found in week 10, the week the referendum took place. Hence, the topic was discussed 20 times more often in the last week of the campaign than it was in the first week. This makes immigration the second most mentioned term in the 200 articles that were analysed for The Sun.

26 Broere Uptake of the term NHS The term NHS appeared 132 times in the 200 articles that were analysed for The Sun. Figure 15 shows many peaks and low points spread over the 10 weeks of the campaign. The NHS was not mentioned at all in any of the 20 articles from week one. Although the graph shows peaks, the frequency remained under 50 in all 10 weeks. A peak can be found in week two, where the NHS was mentioned 36 times. The frequency remained under the 20- minimum margin six times, which makes it the least discussed term in the 200 articles.

27 Broere Uptake of the term employment Finally, the use of the term employment has been analysed. Again, this search item included terms like unemployment and jobs. The issue of employment was mentioned 545 times in the 200 articles, which makes it the third most mentioned topic. The frequency remained under the minimum margin in the first two weeks of the campaign (see figure 16). The peak can be found in week five, where it was mentioned 9 times more often than in week 1. After this peak, the frequency fell to a much lower point in the following week. Since then the frequency increased and reached a number of 103 in week 10.

28 Broere Other frequently discussed terms The word cloud generator showed other words that were frequently mentioned. A few terms appeared relevant for the context of this study and have been included in the table with most used terms (see appendix 4.2). Like in the Daily Mail articles, the terms leave and economy were frequently mentioned. However, Brussels appeared high on the list of most frequently used words as well. Brussels was often used as another term for the EU. Figure 14 shows the frequency for each of these three terms.

29 Broere Public opinion polls To investigate a possible relationship between public opinion and the content mentioned in the previously discussed newspapers, public opinion poll results have been analysed. Each poll will be discussed separately Ipsos Mori Ipsos Mori played an important role in investigating shifts in the public s opinion during the 10-week Brexit campaign. Figure 18 shows an overview of four of the most important motivations for the public to vote in favour of Brexit. The numbers represent percentages of participants questioned for this poll. The four most important issues that would motivate the public to vote in favour of Brexit were the EU s laws and its control over the UK, the consequences of immigration, the shortcoming in funding for the NHS and the unemployment rate. The original data set also included housing as one of the issues, but since this was not a term analysed in this study, it has been excluded. The yellow line shows the opinion shift on

30 Broere 30 the EU, the purple line the opinion on immigration, the blue line on the NHS and the green line shows the opinion on unemployment in the UK. The many peaks and low points in the graph show an unstable public opinion which changed every week during the campaign. In week one the NHS was considered the least important motivation to vote for Brexit and immigration the most important issue. The graph shows the most peaks for immigration and therefore immigration seemed to be an important motivation in most weeks. The EU laws and its control over the UK seemed the second most important issue for the respondents. However, the percentage of people that consider unemployment as important sees a peak in the final week of the campaign, where it is considered to be the second most important issue following the EU, it sees lower points than any other issue during the rest of the campaign. Consequently, respondents thought the NHS to be the most important issue in week 5, where it reached a peak of 61 per cent, but it almost halved in the following week with a very low point in week 7 (see figure 18). Finally, figure 19 shows the public s voting intention over the course of the campaign. Participants were asked if they were planning to vote Leave or Remain, at three times during the campaign; in mid-april, mid-may and mid-june. The graph shows how the number of Leave voters decreased over the course of the campaign but still remained higher than the number of Remain voters. Remain voters remained steady and the number of people who were unsure which side to vote for increased.

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32 Broere YouGov polls Next, the results by international research firm YouGov have been analysed. YouGov did not question respondents every week of the campaign. They took three polls each conducted on the 16 th of the month. One poll was conducted in April, one in May and the other one in June. Wheras in the previous poll all topics were considered to be the four most important issues in the campaign, here these four topics were selected from the poll results. Four topics, for instance business and terrorism were left out of this analysis because they had not been analysed in the content analysis. Figure 20 shows how important the four issues were to the respondents at the three polling moments. The graph shows that, just like in the Ipsos Mori poll, immigration seems of biggest concern to the respondents. Here it is considered to be the most important issue at all three moments the respondents were questioned. A peak can be found in May and June where the percentage of people who regarded immigration as an important issue was 57 per cent. The second most important issue was the power of the EU over the UK. Here, the peak can also be found in May but the percentage dropped to 41 in the month of the referendum. The NHS and unemployment were considered to be less important issues than the EU and immigration. Both issues saw a decrease in percentage, of people that regarded the topics as important, in the middle of the campaign. However, both topics were regarded as more important in June than in the month. Especially the NHS was regarded as more important. This term saw an increase of 11% (see figure 20). Finally, results represented in figure 21 have been included to analyse the public s voting intention. The number of Leave voters remains relatively stable over the course of the campaign, apart from in week 3 where the number of Remain voters exceeds the number of Leave voters. A peak in Leave voters can be found in the final week of the campaign.

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34 Broere Conclusion and discussion 4.1 Conclusion This study investigated whether public opinion moves in a similar pattern with the frequency of particular lexical items in newspaper content. The frequency of mentions of six terms that are related to the most important campaign issues, namely Brexit, referendum, European Union, immigration, NHS and employment, have been analysed as well as public opinion polls. Analysis of the terms Brexit and referendum demonstrated whether the Daily Mail and The Sun increased the number of articles mentioning the Brexit referendum in the course of the 10-week campaign. The results show that Brexit was the third most frequently discussed issue in both newspapers. Mentions remained high in all weeks, but they became more frequent in the second half of the campaign. For both newspapers, peaks could be found in week 9, the week before the referendum. However, apart from the term referendum in the Daily Mail, the results showed how the frequency of mentions of all other terms dropped in the tenth week. Since this study aimed to compare the frequency of uptake in newspapers with shifts in public opinion, opinion polls and voting intentions have also been analysed. Voting intentions were used to connect the public s attitude to the terms Brexit and referendum. The results show that public voting intentions fluctuate less than the frequency in newspapers. Nevertheless, both intention polls show a rise in Leave voters and therefore both the lexical items and public opinion moved in a rising pattern in the 10-week campaign. Analysis of the term European Union/EU showed that in both newspapers it was the most discussed issue. Results of the analysed opinion polls show that the EU was the main concern for the public. Polls by Ipsos Mori and YouGov find that the issue remains important in all 10 weeks, but the final week shows the highest peak. The results show a similar pattern with that of the content analysis as both show a higher importance in the final weeks of the campaign. In previous research, Moore & Ramsay found that immigration was the second most discussed issue in British newspapers in the 10-week referendum campaign. This explorative study confirms

35 Broere 35 this. Both newspapers started the campaign period with a low frequency in the use of the words immigration, migration, immigrants and refugees, but the uptake saw a rise in the second half of the campaign. The results of public opinion polls show a similar pattern to that of the newspaper content. Both the poll and content analysis results show a higher percentage or number of mentions in the second part than in the first part of the campaign. The differences for the content analysis, however, are much more significant than those of the poll results. The fact that the importance of immigration in the public opinion remained much more stable during the 10-week campaign (in comparison to the newspaper results) might indicate that newspapers followed public opinion rather than the other way around. This term was the only term for which this pattern was found. Finally, previous research argued that healthcare and unemployment were important issues in the campaign. In this study however, newspaper content results did not indicate significant numbers of mentions for either term. Of the terms selected for this study, NHS was the least mentioned term in both newspapers, followed by unemployment. The Sun, however, shows a rise in uptake of the term unemployment in the second half of the campaign. A similar pattern was found in the poll results. In the Ipsos Mori results, unemployment was seen as the second least important issue in the first half of the campaign, but a rising pattern was found from week 7. In week 10 it was seen as the second most important issue. YouGov results for the term unemployment show a low point in the middle of the campaign followed by a rising pattern in the second half of the campaign. These similar patterns show a possible correlation between the newspaper s content and the shift in public opinion results. The Sun has the biggest readership of all newspapers in the UK and therefore an influence on public opinion would be plausible. Many people are exposed to The Sun s political ideas and repetitive discussion of certain issues may result in people taking over these ideas. Next to the six terms selected for analysis, other frequently used words by the two newspapers have been analysed. Both newspapers proved to have used the word Leave very frequently, especially closer to the week of the referendum. There might be a correlation between the uptake of

36 Broere 36 the word Leave by newspapers and the decision of voters to vote in favour of Brexit. The results showed that readers seem to have been bombarded by the word Leave in these last weeks of the campaign. The study also analysed the use of the term membership and in what context it was used. It appeared to be mentioned in relation to the remain party, which was against Brexit. The results show a lower frequency of the term membership, and therefore there might be a possibility that the readership of both newspapers was exposed to more articles about the option of leaving the EU, than to the option to remain. In combination with a high number of articles discussing immigration issues and control of the EU, this might prove to be a strategy used by popular newspapers in framing news articles in times of campaigning. This could mean that there is an imbalance in remain positive and leave positive articles in both newspapers analysed in this study. 4.2 Discussion In weeks 6 and 9 of the campaign, the newspapers showed similar frequency peaks. In this study an overview of referendum events, provided by the BBC, was used to explain these peaks. Firstly, the frequency of immigration saw a rise starting in week 6 in both newspapers. In week 6 official numbers of the UK s immigration level were published and showed that immigration was the second highest on record. Leave campaigners argued that the number could only be decreased by leaving the EU (BBC). Secondly, the frequency of most terms seemed to peak in week 9, a week before the referendum, around the same time that the first, and most, political television debates were held (weeks 8 and 9). Both weeks counted four television debates. This might have influenced the awareness of certain issues for both newspapers and voters, resulting in frequency peaks in week 9. A decline was found in the frequency of most terms in week 10, the final week of the campaign. These results were striking, since week 10 was the week in which the referendum was held and therefore a higher number of mentions was expected. On June 16th, the official campaign activity was suspended until June 19 th, because of the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox. Results found in week 10, which started June 17 th and ended June 22 nd, may therefore have been influenced by this event, and lower frequency is most likely a consequence of the suspension of campaign activity. However, this

37 Broere 37 decline in frequency was only found for terms such as Brexit and EU and terms such as immigration and employment were mentioned more frequently in the 10th week. Therefore, it seems that the newspapers visible campaigning, the publication of articles mentioning the EU and the referendum, were put on a hold because of the MP s murder, but the framing technique which involves adjustment of the rate of uptake of certain issues, which are also part of the campaign, were increased for issues like immigration and employment. This pattern possibly shows a tactic used by newspapers, since immigration was one of the topics people had indicated they really cared about. Both newspapers appear to have continued their campaign by increasing their focus on these issues. Only two newspapers have been used for analysis in this study. The Daily Mail and The Sun are the two most read popular newspapers in the UK and have therefore been selected. Results found in this study therefore do not represent all popular newspapers. Also, both newspapers are popular newspapers, hence elite newspapers have been excluded. To create a full picture of the political influence of newspapers, future research would need to include all popular newspapers or all newspapers, including elites. Also, both polls used in this study published minimal information about their respondents. An analysis and comparison of demographic information could therefore not be made and might be useful for a more nuanced analysis. In conclusion, this study found a possible correlation between news usage and opinion polls for the terms EU, immigration and leave. It appears however, that this correlation was not always in the expected direction. In the case of immigration, poll results seemed to lead frequency in newspapers rather than the other way around. Public opinion polls showed that the issue of immigration was one the nation cared about more than any other issue throughout the campaign. Newspapers may have used this information to influence the reader s voting intention and this could have serious consequences. For instance, in the case of immigration when newspapers confirm the public s worries about immigrants it may create

38 Broere 38 a national aversion of certain groups. It would therefore be useful for future studies to attempt to answer questions about whether and how newspapers influence their readership. However, this study has also demonstrated the difficulty of determining such a direct connection between framing and public opinion, because it is very difficult (or currently impossible even) to exclude all other variables that might affect public opinion. For instance, individuals also have a sense of self-agency and they make choices which may or may not be influenced by what they have been exposed to. For example in the case of the American elections, it would be hard to verify claims about Russian spies that they directly influenced American citizens, since we cannot confirm a direct connection between Russian activities on social media and public voting intentions. However, with the help of big data it may be possible for future research to get close to verifying a direct relationship between the media and public opinion. 5. Works cited Analyse the impact of media on election results (PowerPoint slides) (n.d.). Retrieved from Bachrach, Peter, and Morton S. Baratz. "Decisions and nondecisions: an analytical framework." Power: Critical Concepts 2 (1994): Borah, Porismita. Comparing Visual Framing in Newspapers: Hurricane Katrina versus Tsunami. Newspaper Research Journal, vol. 30, no. 1, 2009, pp , doi: / Barrett, Devlin, et al. Russian troll farm, 13 suspects indicted in 2016 election interference. The Washington Post, WP Company, 16 Feb. 2018, indicted-for-interference-in-us-election/2018/02/16/2504de5e e c e5_story.html.

39 Broere 39 Brexit - Nationalism or Xenophobic Populism? SyndiGate Media Inc, 28 June Campe von, C. (2008). Globalization and its Effects on Nationalism. Retrieved from: Cap, Piotr. The Language of Fear: Communicating Threat in Public Discourse. Springer, Chong, Dennis, and James N. Druckman. "A theory of framing and opinion formation in competitive elite environments." Journal of Communication 57.1 (2007): Cole, Debbie, and Régine Pellicer. Uptake (Un)Limited: The mediatization of register shifting in US public discourse. Language in Society, vol. 41, no. 04, 2012, pp , doi: /s Cook, Guy, Peter T. Robbins, and Elisa Pieri. " Words of mass destruction : British newspaper coverage of the genetically modified food debate, expert and non-expert reactions." Public Understanding of Science 15.1 (2006): Corbett, Steve. "The social consequences of Brexit for the UK and Europe: Euroscepticism, populism, nationalism, and societal division." The International Journal of Social Quality 6.1 (2016): Duncan, Pamela. Immigration is key issue with EU referendum voters, according to Google. The Guardian, 15 June 2016, Finnegan, Richard J. "Social responsibilities of the Newspaper." The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (1942): Gentzkow, Matthew, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Michael Sinkinson. "Competition and Ideological Diversity: Historical Evidence from US Newspapers-Appendix." (2012). Heyes, Jason. Why Brexit would be a disaster for your employment rights. Independent, 9 Mar. 2016, camps-britain-stronger-in-europe-vote-leave-a html.