Immigration & Farm Labor. Philip Martin:

Transcription

1 Immigration & Farm Labor Philip Martin:

2 Highlights Hired workers: average employ, 425,000 in 2015; unique farm workers, 850,000: up 10% since 2005 Hired farm workers = Mexican-born (90% in CA); not authorized (55%); settled & aging (38-39) Employer responses to fewer newcomers Satisfy current workers: bonuses, super training. Growers inelastic supply: wage increases do not = more workers Stretch current workers: mechanical aids, change production practices to make work easier; older & women Substitution: labor-saving mechanization (& switch crops) Supplement: young H-2A workers provide fresh blood, but (1) recruit US, (2) provide housing, (3) pay AEWR ($12 CA) Uncertainty: no one knows best combination

3 Average FTE employment and # workers up 10% Average FTE Employment and Unique Farm Workers: 2007, 2012, , ,000 FTE Employment Workers 700, , , , , , ,

4 Since 2009: more workers are brought to crop farms by nonfarm employers than are hired directly by crop farms Average FTE Crop and Crop Support Employment, , ,000 Crop Crop Support 200, , , , , ,

5 Why don t US workers take $30,300 ag jobs? Fruits & FLCs are 55% of FTE employment: $18k & $10k This image cannot currently be displayed.

6 3,000 US FLCs;; 1,400 in CA FLCs: Increase efficiency of worker-job matching or act as risk absorbers?

7 Common crop support: harvesting tree fruits Hard to monitor workers in trees = piece rates

8 CA strawberries #1 ag employer: 90% of US 3 billion pounds from 40,000 acres, 60,000 to 70,000 workers

9 Vegetables: direct-hire & workers via crop support firms (some are partners)

10 Nursery & dairy Big 5 of 20: crop support, FVH, & dairy = 82% of $12.7 bil CA ag wages in 2015

11 Hired Crop Workers Men born in Mexico: 90%; unauthorized 55% Trends: Fewer newcomers (workers in US less than 1 year). From 20% to 2% today. Result: average age (38-39) up Settled & aging; families with US-born children; half get some means-tested benefits; few FTC migrants Employ and earns: more weeks, higher wages Average $10.20/hour across US; $10.10 in CA in 2014 CA 36 weeks or 205 days of farm work Average earnings $17,500-$20,000/year; almost $100 a day Farm work like nonfarm work: live off the farm, commute to work, have 1 farm employer during year

12 Unauthorized newcomers down: settled & less mobile Among unauthorized immigrants, a decline from Mexico but rise from elsewhere since 2009 In milli on: 6.9 Larger share of unauthorized immigrants are long-term residents % ofadultunauthoriz.edimmigrants, bydurationofu.s. residenre exlcan years or more 2.0 1, O h r Less than 5 years te: Shadingsurroundinglines indicates I~ and higt, points of the estimated 9cr; confiden e interval. The differen es in 1995and 2000 bet1 een Me icanand Other are notstatistical~ 1significantat 9Cr; confidence interval. Source: Pe I Research uenterestimates for based on augmented 1\merican Communitf Survey data (IPUMS; for based on March Supplements of the current Population SuriJe_'. Estimates for 1990from arren and arren (2013. era II umberofu.s. Unauthori::ed Immigrants H Ids Stead_ Sirce 2009 PE\ RESEARCH CENTER te: Data labels are for 1995, 2003, 2005 and Source: Pe Research Center estimates for based on augmented Americlln Oommunil) Sun.e_ data (IPUMS); for 1995, 1998, 2000 and 2003 based on March Supplements of the Current PopulationSun.e_. "Overall umberofu.s. Unauthorc:ed Immigrants Holds Stead_ Since 2009 PEW RESEARCH CENTER

13 Agriculture: among first to feel effects of fewer unauthorized newcomers

14 Employers: 4-S responses Satisfy current farm workers with bonuses, benefits, & better supervisors. If supply of workers in US = inelastic, wage increases do not add to supply Stretch with mechanical aids that increase productivity: conveyor belts in fields, dwarf trees. How much to invest, how fast to deploy? Substitute: labor-saving mechanization. Will wages keep rising to justify investments? Involve seed companies with long time horizons? (Switch crops?) Supplement the labor force with H-2As. Expand or change current program (1) no-recruitment (2) nohousing, and (3) reduced AEWR program? Allow H-2A workers in dairy & other year-round jobs? From 10- month to 3-year visas & Asians?

15 Satisfy: bonuses, benefits, supervisor training & respect Most farmers: satisfy will not ENLARGE ag workforce

16 Stretch: mechanical aids to raise worker productivity

17 Substitute: mechanize olives, carrots, tomatoes, nursery

18 Defense vs ag robots: performance vs costs

19 Supplement with H-2As: 75,000 FY07, 165,000 FY16. CA & WA up OFFICE OF FOREIGN LABOR CERTIFICATION H-2A Temporary Agricultura l Labor Certification Program - Selected Statistics, FY 2016 A,PPI 1 1cat1ons R ece1ve d 1 Review of Positions Certified FY 2016 FY 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 8,801 1,755 3,861 2,145 A.pp11ca I" t" ions p rocesse d Determination FY 2016 Q1 Q2 Total Determinations 8,684 1,146 3,649 Certified 8,297 1,064 3,553 - Denied Withdrawn Positions Reauested 172,654 24,563 52,216 Positions Certified 165,741 23,779 50,887 Processed Timelv2 95.0% 99.3% 90.5% Top States 5% 4% 3% - 3% 2% %FY Q4 Change FY15 1, % Q3 Q4 2,577 1,312 2,468 1, ,373 34,502 58,753 32, % 98.1% Florida North Carolina Georgia Washington California Louisiana Kentucky New York Arizona South Carolina Remaining States Top 10 States Top 10 Employers % of total certified FY 2016 Florida 22,828 North Carolina 19,786 Georgia 17,39 2 Washington 13,689 California 11,106 Louisiana 8,301 Kentucky 6,779 New York 5,522 Arizona 5,391 Sout h Carol ina 3,896 North Carolina Growers Assoc iation NCGA 12,161 Washington Farm Labor Assn. AFLA 9,455 Fresh Harvest, Inc. 3,819 Rodrigo Gutierrez- Tap ia 3,182 Zirkle Fruit Company 2,596 Elkhorn Packing Company 2,304 Peri & Sons Farms, Inc. 2,003 Virginia Ag ricultural Growers Assn. VAGA 1,642 R and R Harvesting, Inc. 1,638 Alewelt Concrete, Inc. 1,343 Berries 3 15,335 Hay and Straw 4 10, % 11.9% 10.5% 8.3% 6.7% 5.0% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 2.4% 7.3% 5.7% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 9.3% 6.1%

20 H-2A FY17 up 16% from FY16;; 200,000 jobs cert in FY17? EMPLOYMENT ANO TRAINING ADM IN ISTRATION, U.S. OOL OFFICE OF FOREIGN LABOR CERTIFICATION H-2A Temporary Agricultural Labor Certification Program - Selected Statistics, FY 2017 YTD lications Received Applications Q1 2,355 Processed Q2 Determination YTD Q1 Total Determinations 1,552 1,552 -C ertified 1,498 1,498 - Denied Withdrawn Positions Reauested 1 Positions Certified Processed Timelv 2 29,067 29,067 28,116 28, % 98.7% Top States 1.8% Q2 Q3 4.7% Oranges Top Crops Lettuce 5.3% 4.1 % 4.1%4.0% 3.6% Citrus /3.4% Nursery & Green. Workers Livestock General Farm Workers Berries Broccoli Spinach Crawfish Remaining Crops 1 Positi ons requested derived from data not publicl y disclosed. 2 Percent of complete H-2A applications resolved 30 days before the start date of need. A complete H-2A application is defined as one contain ing all the documentation (e.g., housing inspection report, workers ' compen sation, recruitment report) necessary for the OFLC Certif ying Officer to issue a final determ ination 30 days befo re the start date of need. Q3 Q4 Q4 Florida Arizona Louisiana Washington California Georgia South Carolina Arkansas Texas Colorado Data as ofdeember 31, 2016 All figures are rounded and not audited Selected Statistics bv Worker Positions Certified Review of Positions Certified FY 2017TD (% of total certified FY 201TO) Florida 9, % Arizona 4, % Louisiana 1, % Washington 1, % Top 10 California 1, % States Georgia 1, % South Carolina 1, % Arkansas % Texas % Colorado % Top10 Employers Foothills Packing, Inc. 1, % Elkhorn Packing Co., LLC 1, % WA FLA % Fresh Harvest, Inc % Tanimura & Antle Fresh Foods, Inc % The Growers Company, Inc % Overlook Harvesting Comoanv, LLC % A. Oseguera Company, Inc % Southern Gardens Groves Coro % Citrus Harvesting, Inc % Orange s' 3, % Lettuce' 2, % Citrus 2, % Nursery and Greenhouse Top10 Workers 1, % Crops/ Livestocks 1, % Occupations General Farm Workers 1, % Berries 6 1, % Broccoli 1, % Spinach % Crawfish % 30range s Category includes listed Pnmary Crops of Oranges, Tangerines, and Valen a a Oranges. ' Lettuce Categ ory includes listed Primary Crops of Lettu ce and Romaine. 5Livestock Category includes listed Primary Crops of Cattle, Goats, Livestock, Open Range Livestock, Pigs, and Sheep. 68errie s Category includes listed Primary Crops of Bluebenies and Strawberries EMPLOYMENT AND TRAI NING ADMINISTRATION, U.S. DOL OFFICE OF FOREIGN LABOR CERTIFICATION H-2A Temporary Agricultural Labor Certification Program - Selected Statistics, FY 2016 lications Received' % FY Change FY15 1,755 3,861 2,145 1, % Applications Processed Determ l natkm FY Total Determinations 8,684 1,146 Certified 8,297 1,064 Denied Withdrawn Positions Reauested 172,654 24,563 Positions Certified 165,741 23,779 Processed Tlmelv % 99.3% Top States ,649 2,577 1,312 3,553 2,468 1, ,216 61,373 34,502 50,887 58,753 32, % 96.6 % 98.1% F lorida North Carolina Georg ia Washington California Louisiana Kent uck y New York Arizona South Carolina Remaining States Berri es Top Crops Hay and Straw Apples Tobacco General Farmworker Melons Sw eet Potatoes Lettuce Nursery & Greenhouse... Com Remaining Crops 1 Please note that applications received will not match posted disclosure data as this data set only includes adjudicated applications. 2 Percent of complete H-2A applications resolved 30 days before the start date of need. A complete H-2A applieation is defined as one containing all the documentation (e.g., housing inspection report, recruitment report) necessary for the OFLC Certifying Officer to issue a final determination 30 days before the start date of need. Data as of September 30, All figures are rounded and not audited. Review of Positions Cert ifi ed FY 2016 (% of total certified FY 2016) Florida 22, % North Carolina 19, % Georgia 17, % Was hington 13, % Top 10 California 11, % States Louisiana 8, % Kentucky 6, % New York 5, % Arizona 5, % South Carolina 3, % North Carolina Growers Association (NCGAl 12, % Washington Farm Labor Assn. (WAFLA) 9, % Fresh Harvest, Inc. 3, % Rodrigo Gutierrez-Tapia 3, % Top 10 Employers Zirkle Fruit Company 2, % Elkhorn Packing Company 2, % Peri & Sons Farms, Inc. 2, % Virginia Agricultu ral Growers Assn. /VAGA) 1, % Rand R Harvesting, Inc. 1, % Alewelt Concrete, Inc. 1, % Berries 3 15, % Hay and Straw 4 10, % Apples 5 9, % Tobacco 6 9, % Top 10 Crops/ General Farmworker 8, % Occupations Melons 7 8, % Sweet Potatoes 7, % Lettuce 8 7, % Nursery and Greenhouse Workers 6, % Corn 9 5, % s:..:~,,; ;" dud stad rnary " '" Barnas. ' ackba ' m as. ueb8rnas. ' R aspbamas. : ~ as Crops o B 8 a d 4 Hay and Straw ca tegory includas of listed Prma ry Crops of Alfalra and Hay and Straw 5 Appl8S Catagay lndudas ol Hstad Primary Crops of Ajlpla [)-ops, Apples, D. arf Apples, and GraMy """" "tobacco Category Includes of list&d Primary-Crops of Air-ClX&d. Bur1ey, Cutting, Flue-Cured, Setting, Stripping and Tobacco 'Melon category indlloes oflis\00 Primary Crops of Cantaloopes. Melons. and Watermelons "Lettuce Cat&gOry Includes of list&d Primary Crops of Iceberg, Lettuoft and Romaine ' Com Category indudes of bt&d Primary Crops of Gorn and Sweat Com

21 CA: 3,000 in 2012, 8,600 in 2015, 11,000 in 2016 CA: vegetable firms operate in Yuma & Salinas Border labor force is legal; BP agents check buses H-2As to Salinas: house in motels or on-farm housing? T&A: $8 million to house 800 workers in Spreckels, $10,000 per bed Old: largest CA H-2A user: Sierra-Cascade strawberry nursery (1,300 H-2As in Tulelake; WWII Japanese intern) New: Fresh Harvest, FLC certified to fill 4,000 jobs with H-2A workers in FY16 Half of CA farm labor is in SJV, where fruit industry is concentrated, & less grower-shipper integration. H-2A expansion in CA led by coastal vegetable growers Some shippers: increase imports of FVH commodities, esp Mexican berries

22 AEWRs 2017: $12.57 in CA;; <$11 in southeast & AZ-NM Highest: grains & OR-WA $13.79

23 CA: 50% increase in minimum wage by 2022 (now $10.50) p o J.1, u. So or pr ( S, C iforni io

24 Big variance in median earnings: $18,000 Delano, $108,000 Los Altos Windfall gains for workers or job losses in SJV? Eureka $23,949 Redding $28,846 Los Altos $108,543 Sacramento $33,751 $17,786 $108,543 Chico $25,305 -Folsom $62,363 S.Lake Tahoe $26,266 - Delano Fresno / $26,534 /$17,786 Median annual earnings, by city California cities with at least 10,000 workers have median annual earnings of widely varying amounts, according to the most recent census data, rangingfrom more than $108,000 in Los Altos to less than $18,000 in Delano. Bakersfield $32,294 San Bernardino _-$24, 822 FIGHl CALl~ NIA 15 CA Cities (Rank out U Metro Joble ss Rate, I Local alary Equivalent to I 15 an Hour F :\1inimum Wage Areas for Jan. Jobless Rates) I Jan ,000 in San Francisco Adjusted for Local Cost or Living El Centro (#387) 19.2% S4 l.92 I S6.29 Merced (#384) 12.8% $ S6.45 Vi alia-porterville (#383) 12.3% $43,652 $6.55 Hanford-Corcoran (#382) 11.4% $40,684 $6.10 Salinas (#38 1) 11.2% $52,638 S7.90 Yuba City (#379) I 0.9% S S6.84 Baker field (#378) 10.7% $42, Fresno (#377) 10.6% $43, 199 $6.48 Madera (#376) 10.2% $42,457 $6.37 Modesto (#375) 9.4% $44,724 $6.71 Manhattan Beach $85,855 Rancho Palos Verdes $68,512 Sources: Employme nt Development Department' s Occupat io nal Employmen t Statistics and Wages report and U.S. census American Commun ity Survey J Calexico $21,883 SHARON OKADA sokada@sacbee.com

25 Projected median wage in 2022 in Fresno & Merced = $20 Historic experiment: min wage of $15 = ¾ median wage Ratio of minimum wage to median wage in 2022 Rough consensus among economists sympathetic to minimum wage increases: BELOW 50% (mostly beneficial) 60% to 70% (serious concerns) 50% to 60% (may create difficulties) ABOVE 70% (potentia/ty disruptive) MEDIAN WAGE IN 2022 RATIO O $15 MINIM M (PROJECTED) TO MEDIAN WAGE Redding Fresno $20.3 San Francisco San Jose e Chico Sacramento Stockton Merced Meroed $20.3 Chico $2.23 Bakersfield $21.44 Redding $ Fresno Stockton $ Los Angeles Bakersfield CALIFORNIA Los Angeles $ San Diego $25.38 SI Sacramento $ San Francisco $ San Diego San Jose $

26 AB 1066: 8/40 overtime. Dairy, irrigators, equip operators

27 Summary Hired worker employment up as expansion offsets mechanization. Farm workers: fewer new entrants = aging & settled unauthorized workers with US-born kids Employer responses Satisfy current workers to retain Stretch with labor-stretching mechanical aids Substitute: labor-saving mechanization (switch) Supplement: H-2A workers; reduce recruitment, housing, & AEWR requirements How fast does new enforcement occur? Which of the 4 S s takes priority? What variance by commodity and area?