The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War

Transcription

1 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War WANG Bo & YU Zhen 1 (Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University) Abstract: The Gulf cooperation has gained new momentum after the end of the Cold War. However, it also faces various developing difficulties, including the low level of regional institutional cooperation and integration. The regional context of the regional cooperation in the Gulf region is composed by regional security, energy factors and monarchy form of government, in which regional security is the primary motivation which makes it possible for the co-existence in competition of two tendencies in this region: integration and division. The energy element is the most important reason for external powers involvement in the region as well as an important part in regional cooperation in the Gulf region. The monarchy is the key point to understand the relationship between the GCC and Iran and the geographical spillover of the GCC. These factors jointly shape the regional cooperation in the Gulf region. Key Words: Gulf Regional Cooperation; Regional Security; Energy; Post-Cold War; GCC The Gulf region includes present-day Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, 1 Dr. WANG Bo, professor of Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University; YU Zhen, Ph.D. candidate of Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University. This article is financed by key research projects of China s Education Ministry (08JZD0039), National Social Sciences Foundation of China (13CZJ017), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2013T60402 & 2012M520795), Chinese Ministry of Education Research (KA159225), and Shanghai s Key Academic Discipline. 100

2 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This region has been viewed as the border zone of the Middle East regional culture and empire. Since the discovery of oil in Iran in 1908, the Gulf region has become the focus of the global energy market and the focus of the politics and economics of the whole world. In 1971, six emirates decided to establish the UAE and form a federation, which added Ras Al Khaimah the following year. After that, the first regional integration of the Gulf region was accomplished. The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf was established in 1981, which not only marked officially the establishment of a multilateral mechanism in the Gulf region, but also shaped a regional strategic pattern composed of eight countries, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Iran and Iraq. This regional pattern continues even today. Compared with the studies on regional cooperation in Europe and East Asia in academic circles, the regional cooperation in the Gulf region has not gained enough attention that is in accordance with its strategic status and realistic development situation. This is related to the lack of structural regional cooperation and the low level of integration in the Gulf region. Critics have already focused on such drawbacks; however, the main problem is that scholars have not studied the regional cooperation of the Gulf region in a greater environment including other regional environments (Harders & Legrenzi, 2008: 107). It is just the regional context of the Gulf region based on regional security, energy and monarchy that shapes the characteristics of this region and distinguishes it from cooperation in other regions. 101

3 Regional Security and the Cooperation in the Gulf Region after the Cold War The Gulf region has always been the key international trade route that connects the Middle East with South Asian, East African and East Asian countries. However, the northern border zone of the Gulf region is surrounded by the everglades in south Iraq and lowland swamps in Khuzestan, Iran; the coastline of the Gulf region is constituted by deltas, swamps and peat lands. Such natural geographic barriers between the Gulf region and other regions makes this region a small sub-regional system, this is why the region has maintained its historical unity until it was invaded by the UK in early 20 th century (Potter, 2009: 2, 8). The intervention, especially military presence of powers such as the UK, the US and then the Soviet Union in the Gulf regional affairs, makes its security situation increasingly complex. Regional security becomes the primary concern of the countries within the region. 1) Regional security is the main motivation of cooperation in the Gulf region There was no cooperation in the Gulf region in the true sense until 1971, when the UAE was founded and all Gulf States achieved independence. The GCC, established in 1981, is the most important cooperation mechanism in the Gulf region. The regional pattern has been shaped after its establishment. However, security factors are the most important motivation of its establishment. The Islamic Revolution took placed in 1979 and Iran began to export revolutions to its neighboring countries. In 1980, a war broke out between two regional powers in the Gulf region, Iran and Iraq. Against such severe security backdrop, six Gulf States decided to jointogether to safeguard their security. Since the establishment of the GCC, the regional 102

4 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War strategic pattern made by tripartite parties, GCC, Iran and Iraq, has been formed and continued to this day (Wang, J., 2011: 322). Table 1: Basic situation of modern GCC countries States Date of Early form Current form Portion Portion Portion establish of of government of oil of of energy ment government reserve Natural export in /indepen in total gas GDP dence (%) reserve (%) in total (%) Bahra 1971/0 Constitution Constitutional in 8 al Monarchy Monarchy Iran 1925/1 Monarchy Monarchy Iraq 1921/0 Monarchy Monarchy Kuwa 1961/0 Constitution Constitutional it 6 al Monarchy Monarchy Oman 1951/1 Monarchy Constitutional Monarchy Qatar 1971/0 Constitution Constitutional al Monarchy Monarchy Saudi 1932/0 Monarchy Monarchy Arabi 9 a UAE 1971/1 Constitution Constitutional al Monarchy Monarchy Source of data:data on political development situation comes from Wang Jinglie, 103

5 Interpreting the Middle East: Theoretical Building and Empirical Research, Beijing: World Publishing Corporation, pp Data on energy is compiled in accordance with CIA World Fact-book and BP Statistical Review of World Energy June Three decades had passed after the Cold War when the GCC was established. Before that, the tension of the bipolar pattern had been eased to some extent. Taking this chance, the developing countries could enhance their status and interdependence, as well as actively conduct practices on regional cooperation. This period has been viewed as the second wave of regionalism (Fawcett, L.). Just like other regional organizations that were established during this wave, the GCC knew its security concern clearly as early as the time when it established Iran, which has been viewed as a threat to regional security. However, according to Article 4 of the Charter of the GCC, the basic objectives of the Gulf Cooperation Council are: To effect coordination, integration and inter-connection between Member States in all fields in order to achieve unity between them. To deepen and strengthen relations, links and areas of cooperation now prevailing between their peoples in various fields. To formulate similar regulations in various fields including the following: economic and financial affairs, commerce, customs and communications, education and culture. To stimulate scientific and technological progress in the fields of industry, mining, agriculture, water and other resources; to establish scientific research; to establish joint ventures and encourage cooperation by the private sector for the good of their peoples. Attention has been paid to the economic and cultural fields instead of the stability of regimes and regional security which should have been the core concerns. Although the comprehensive security strategy has 104

6 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War been adopted by the GCC in February 15, 1987 as the overall framework of comprehensive security cooperation, this strategy has not had a chance to be really implemented in the true sense. On the level of regional practices, the most important role that the GCC has played is to prevent wars from spreading to GCC members and submit proposals to the United Nations (UN) on how to end the wars. 2) The post-war GCC region is still under the influence of regional security. Since the end of the Cold War, two wars have broken out in the Gulf region, both of which have strengthened the military presence of the US. Coupled with the appearance of the nuclear crisis in Iran, the Gulf region has faced severe security dilemma. It is just such security situation that influenced by both internal and external factors makes it possible for the co-existence in competition of two tendencies in this region: integration and division. First, the most obvious tendency of integration in the Gulf region after the Cold War is that the GCC could play a role in maintaining regional stability and improve its relationship with Iran. In March 1991, the Damascus Declaration was jointly signed by six GCC States as well as Egypt and Syria, planning to establish an army on peacekeeping. However, the GCC has not successfully carried out collective military action until the Middle East unrest. On February 15, 2011, Shiite Muslims in Bahrain held mass demonstrations, which resulted in instability in Bahrain. Under the request of the government in Bahrain, armed forces from Saudi Arabia and UAE entered Bahrain and provided assistance in stabilizing the situation in Bahrain (Liu, Z. & Zhu, W., 2013: 238). This military action, named the Peninsula Shield, stimulated the security cooperation in the GCC to a large extent. GCC members officially signed on the GCC Security 105

7 Agreement in November 2012 and announced the establishment of a unified general military command during the Manama Summit in December In April 2013, the forces of the Peninsula Shield forged a permanent command named the Advanced Command of the Peninsula Shield Forces. These measures have been regarded as the important progress of the GCC on collective security (Toumi, H., 2013: April 18). After the end of the Cold War, as a former status quo challenger in this region, Iran s strength on transformation and its willingness have been greatly curtailed. Although there is tension between the US and Iran, just like the Sword of Damocles, such tension also provided room for the GCC to resort to mediation. In December 2007, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former president of Iran, suggested the establishment of a security cooperative institution made up of Iran and GCC countries and sign related agreements when he was invited to participate in a summit of the GCC (BBC News, 2007: December 3). In October 2012,during the First Asia Cooperation Dialogue Summit, Ahmadinejad expressed openly that Iran would not be a threat to the GCC (Arab Times, 2013: December 4). Although progress has been made in regional security cooperation, US military presence in the Gulf region and the regional security dilemma caused by Iran s nuclear development still stand in the way of the development of cooperation in Gulf region. Although US troops have withdrawn from Saudi Arabia and have also withdrawn from Iraq, the Quadrennial Defense Review Report published by the US Department of Defense still reiterated the important role of troops abroad in maintaining US global influence and military ability. It stated that the US will continue to support military actions in areas, including Iraq, so as to safeguard US long-term objectives in the Middle East. 106

8 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War Although the GCC rarely posts fierce speech on Iran s nuclear problem and refused the proposal of expanding the defense umbrella raised by former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton, voices that call for nuclear development of Arab countries have long existed in Saudi Arabia after the outbreak of the nuclear crisis of Iran. As early as 1999, officials in Saudi Arabia began to initiate negotiations on nuclear technologies with the Pakistani government. In his meeting with US special envoy in 2009, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia expressed that if Iran crossed the threshold, we will get nuclear weapons (BBC News, 2013: November 6). Some observers suggest that in the medium to long-term Saudi Arabia will turn to China, Pakistan, South Korea, and France to develop its own indigenous nuclear supply chain and weapons program (Friedman, B., 2012: June). In fact, all Gulf States have signed on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons NPT). The source countries of Saudi Arabia s potential nuclear weapons are either Pakistan or other states parties of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Suppliers Group. Hence, if Saudi Arabia really wants to develop nuclear weapons, the political and economic risks ahead of it will be even more serious than Iran s. The security dilemma in the Gulf region will be worse then. Energy Factors in the Cooperation of the Gulf Region after the Cold War The Gulf region is the richest region with oil and natural gas. Since the beginning of the 20 th century, Western powers have intervened in regional affairs and entered fierce competition for the sake of their energy interests. According to the Energy Outlook

9 published by BP Global, the global petroleum consumption will rise by 0.8 percent in the next 20 years. Conventional crude oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, together with the liquid products of natural gas from Qatar can meet the energy demands of expected growth. The Gulf region will still play an important role in the global energy market (BP, 2012: January). 1) Energy factors are the main reasons for the intervention in regional affairs of outside powers. The Gulf region has long been the target of the powers to compete for the regional and even global dominant status because the energy security in this region is closely related to the energy security of the powers. Since 1971, when the US replaced the UK in dominating the Gulf region, the energy in this region has been among US important strategic objectives to maintain its dominance in affairs in the Gulf region and even the whole Middle East. On the one hand, the US maintains its dominance in the region; on the other hand, it signed bilateral military agreements with the Gulf States and dispatched troops to station there, so as to maintain its dominant position in energy development and security in energy transportation in the Gulf region. Although the US has withdrawn troops from Saudi Arabia after the end of the 2003 Iraq War, the Gulf region still plays an indispensable role in US military deployment in the Middle East. The Juffair Naval Base, located in Bahrain, is the base camp of the US navy in the Middle East; the Camp Doha, located in Kuwait, is a core base as well as a large logistics base of US ground troops in the Middle East. Economically, the US insists on signing bilateral agreements with the Gulf States separately, planning to establish a US-Middle East Free Trade Area led by the US. Besides, the US also requires the Middle East countries to make greater efforts in antiterrorism and stop 108

10 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War rejecting Israel, and lists these requirements as objectives of the negotiation. In September 2004, the US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement has been signed by thetwo countries. Although both the US and Bahrain claim it as a new point of the bilateral relationship, it also reveals the failure of the GCC as a whole to negotiate with the US on free trade area (FTA). Therefore, a serious crisis of confidence took place inside the GCC, which as illustrated by Saudi Arabia s rejection of its participation in the 25 th summit of the GCC held in Bahrain. So far, neither the idea of the US-Middle East Free Trade Area nor the objective of establishing a Gulf common market and customs union has come true yet. As the biggest energy importer, the European Union s (EU) energy consumption accounts for 14 to 15 percent of the world while its energy reserve and production capacity are continuously declining. Hence, due to its traditional role in supplying energy to Europe, the importance of the Gulf region to Europe is rising. Europe is very dependent on oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia and natural gas in Qatar (European Commission, 2012). Just because of this interdependence, coupled with the EU s lack of effective measures in influencing the international energy market, the main policy of the EU to the Gulf region is limiting US unilateralism by maintaining the stability of the Gulf region and cooperation with the countries within the region. The EU has committed to develop the GCC as a reliable ally in the Gulf region. In 1988 a cooperative agreement was reached by then European Community and the GCC in which energy cooperation is an important part. Through holding regular political dialogues, the EU shares a common position with the GCC on regional stability and other affairs. However, when it comes to policies toward Iran, European countries began to gradually keep distance from US 109

11 containment policies to protect its own interests. European countries continue to carry out economic cooperation with Iran. The EU always stresses to resolve the Iran nuclear problem through diplomatic efforts and plays a role as a mediator (Yu, Z. & Huang, Lin, 2013: 274, 278). The EU s positive Gulf policies, coupled with its power of example in regional cooperation, have been viewed as an effective political power to content with the US. Besides the US and EU, external powers such as China and Russia, also have wide range of energy interests in the Gulf region. As China has entered the key period of development at the beginning of the 21 st century, it has been China s most important interests in the Gulf region to make sure energy from the Gulf region can come to China smoothly, so as to meet the demands of China s economic development. For this reason, China has made many efforts to safeguard its energy interests through various means, including enhancing political cooperation with the Gulf States and carrying out labor cooperation and mutual investments with them. As an energy exporting power, Russia establishes strategic energy partnership with Saudi Arabia and carries out cooperation with Iran in fields such as oil, gas, nuclear power and Caspian energy development. With the implementation of Russia s policies in the Gulf region which are increasingly flexible, pragmatic, diversified benefit-oriented, Russia has gradually become the balancer in the relationship between the Gulf countries and Western powers. Outside powers intervention caused by their energy interests in the Gulf region makes this region an arena for powers and restricts the Gulf States interdependence on regional affairs on the one hand; on the other hand, powers intervention helps in maintaining the Gulf region s influence in international politics and economics. 110

12 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War 2) Energy cooperation is an important part in regional cooperation in the Gulf region Although the economics of all Gulf States except Bahrain are highly dependent on energy exports, the cooperation patterns on supply and demand among countries have already been arranged orderly in the global energy market. Hence, with regard to energy, cooperation is the mainstream instead of competition among the Gulf States. During the two movements on oil nationalization in the 20 th century, oil-producing countries echoed each other and finally got the right to decide on oil concessions and marking oil price within their countries. The Gulf States initiative on their oil resources makes it possible that they could use the oil embargo as a weapon to balance the Western countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. After the end of the Cold War, due to globalization and increasing interdependence among state actors, a consensus has been reached between energy-consuming countries and energy-producing countries that there would be no winner in disorder and mutual-damaged competition. Provided the efforts in maintaining stability and predictability of the global energy market, the Gulf countries also carry out various cooperation in energy field. By far, there has been no energy cooperative mechanism in the Gulf region that covers all eight countries. Current cooperation mode among Gulf countries is the cooperation inside the framework of existing energy and bilateral cooperation. Six GCC countries implement highly unified energy-export policy externally, and heavily subsidize domestic consumption on energy and electricity internally. On cooperation between the GCC and Iraq, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) can play a role as an energy dialogue platform and coordinate their common oil economic policies. 111

13 After the Iraq War, countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar provided many training and employment opportunities to Iraqis and lots of economic aid in bilateral forms. The energy cooperation between the GCC and Iran is mainly carried out within the framework of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are all members of the OPEC. Because of the common economic interests, even during the period when the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been broken off, officials from both sides still met in regular and special sessions of OPEC and coordinated issues including oil production and price marking. In terms of bilateral exchanges, coast guard of Iran and Kuwait hold regular meetings and discussions on co-managing their maritime boundary; Iran and Omen co-guard the Strait of Hormuz. Even during the Iran-Iraq War, Oman has not followed the overtly anti-iran policy. After the end of the Cold War, the trade volume between Iran and relatively small GCC countries increased rapidly. These small GCC countries encourage investing in Iran domestically, and Iran also established two FTA in Qeshm and Kish to enhance economic changes with these countries and abstract more foreign capitals. Monarchy and Regional Cooperation in the Gulf Region after the Cold War Unlike other developing regions, the Gulf States were not involved in the third wave of democratization that originated from Latin America in the 1970s. They even have not carried out the most important political transitions. Researchers on politics hold that democratic deficit is a serious problem existing in the Middle East 112

14 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War while scholars on regionalism describe the Gulf region as a black hole of regionalism (Posusney, M. & Angrist, M, 2005: 1-2), believing that this region has not bred a more diversified political environment like Latin America and Saharan Africa. However, the Gulf region is the most concentrated region for monarchy in the Middle East. Hence it has also been viewed as the future mode of political coordination in the Middle East (Harders, C. & Legrenzi, M., 2008: 2, 7). There is a paradox between the practice of regional cooperation in the Gulf region and existing theories on international relations, and such paradox climbed on a new-recorded height in the Middle East unrest that took placed in the Middle East in the end of Current Tunisia and Egypt, both of whose leaders were overthrown, all take the republic as their form of government. Although the multi-party system they implemented have also been criticized, compared with other countries that are unstable, Tunisia and Egypt have one step ahead on political development. A discussion has been raised on this phenomenon that seems to be contrary to the general rules of the modernization of world politics (Ding, L., 2013: 36). Based on the portion of the people in power, Greek philosopher Aristotle divided forms of government into monarchy, aristocracy and democracy. Among them, the basic value system of monarchy is religious, paternalism and conservatism essentially. Their traditional ideas believe in the divine right of kings and accept the kings actions as right. Monarchy was the most widely known form of government until World War I after which only a few countries remain as monarchies. Today, the Gulf region has the greatest concentration monarchies. Given that the regional cooperation in the Gulf region currently is led by governments, such monarchy-concentrating situation makes the cooperation among monarchical countries in their 113

15 regions the key factor to understand the cooperation in the Gulf region (Miller, D., 1992: 480). Prior to the end of the Cold War, the role of the monarchical regimes in the Gulf cooperation was related to other factors, including regional security and energy, instead of an important independent variable that could impact the region alone. But that is not the case currently. Specifically, these impacts can be found obviously on the relationship between the GCC and Iran, as well as the geographic spillover of the GCC. 1) Monarchy and regional cooperation in the Gulf region after the Cold War After the end of the Cold War, the regional pattern of the Gulf region has undergone dramatic changes. On the one hand, Iraq under the rule of Saddam and Iran that developed nuclear power have been sanctioned by the West. Iraq in the post-saddam period is still stuck in the difficult post-war reconstruction process. On the other hand, the GCC countries, as status quo powers, are developing steadily. They not only prevent themselves from being attacked by Iran and Iraq, but also improve their relationship with Iran. The most important reason for improvement of the relationship is Iran s change of its attitude toward the political legitimacy of the Gulf monarchies. As entering the 20 th century, the republican wave took place in the Middle East region that was completely ruled by feudal monarchs. During the period between 1952 and 1978, Kings in Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan and Iran have been overthrown successively. To monarchs in the Gulf Arab region, the biggest threat is the idea of Islamic revolution from Iran and its practices of exporting the revolution. The sources of the legitimacy of Gulf monarchies are tribal loyalty, Sunni Islam s religious belief and material forces including wealth and military forces. During Iran s 114

16 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War exporting of revolution, Iran not only influenced many Shiite Muslims in other countries, but also attracted many Sunni Muslims who were unsatisfied with then situation by Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini s repeatedly emphasizing on opposing the Western forces and eliminating social injustice. In 1979, religious extremists energized by Iran s Islamic Revolution occupied the Grand Mosque in Mecca shortly thereafter, which led to the panic of the whole Muslim world (Al-Rodhan, N., 2011: 127). The key problem to the GCC countries was that Khomeini strongly opposed monarchy and deduced the illegality of monarchy from Islamic history. Khomeini holds that Islam opposes monarchy essentially because monarchy can be found in neither Quran nor hadith. Instead, words criticizing it can be found. In Khomeini s eyes, monarchy and succession to the throne are an ominous and valueless political system; monarchy and hereditary are absurd and ineffective; it is Muslims top duty to fight against tyrants (Liu, Z., 2011: 17). These methods of Iran led to the sharp deterioration of the relationship between Iran and the Gulf monarchies. After the Cold War, the improvement of the relationship between Iran and the GCC countries originated from the adjustments of Iran s regional policies. After the death of Khomeini, Iran began to seek regional stability. The orientation of its regional policies was national interests instead of considerations of ideology. During that time, Iran attached lots of attention on its relationship with the GCC countries. In the second month after the death of Khomeini, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was elected as the next Iran president. He delivered a speech, saying that Iran had to stop making enemies and extricate itself from intervening in the domestic affairs of other countries, which sent a signal that exporting revolution was no longer Iran s policy objective (Suwaidi, J., 1996: 84, 91). Seyyed Mohammad Khatami, a moderate and reformist 115

17 leader who came to power in Iran on May 1997, actively proposed the dialogue among civilizations and put efforts in improving the relationship between Iran and its neighbors in the GCC. With the unfolding of the 21 st century, even Ahmadinejad who was known for his hardline attitude, holding hands with Saudi Arabia s King Abdullah when entering the conference room for the GCC in Doha Summit in early December 2007 against the backdrop of Iran nuclear crisis. Although Iran s proposal of co-establishing a joint force with the GCC has not been put on the formal agenda yet, previous hostile relations between the two have been improved a lot. 2) The geographical spillover of the GCC Spillover is a concept raised by scholars on international relations by summarizing the regional cooperative practices in Europe. It is used to describe the mechanism driving regional integration. Geographical spillover means that the regional cooperative mechanism has spilled over its geographical scope (Haas, E., 1958: ). Later researchers always carry out empirical studies around this concept, analyzing in which case regional cooperative organization will enroll new members and the important role of the spillover of regional cooperation in the interaction between geography and growth (Belenzon, S. & Schankerman, M.). Specifically to the regional cooperation in the Gulf region, its spillover refers to the GCC, as dominating agglomeration forces, attracts new members and expends cooperation outside the Gulf region. Monarchy is the important standard for it to enroll new members. After the Cold War, although the GCC have lots of multi-lateral cooperation with other countries and organizations, the GCC itself is not an open regional organization. The members of the GCC have long been limited in the six countries that jointly founded this organization. 116

18 The Gulf Regional Cooperation after the Cold War Yemen, also located in Arabian Peninsula, has not been approved to participate in commissions, such as GCC Council of Health Ministers, Education and Training Bureau, Council of Labor and Social Affairs Ministers, until the 22th summit of the GCC in December Nonetheless, Yemen is not a full member of the GCC even now. However, unlike Yemen, the GCC issued a statement in June 2011, taking the initiative to invite Jordan and Morocco, both of which are monarchies. In November 2012, the GCC declared to establish strategic partnership with Jordan and Morocco and reached a five-year joint action plan, promising to provide $ 5 billion free aid to the two countries, respectively, during these five years. These methods have been regarded as the first expansion of the GCC. Compared with other factors including geo-cultural similarities and complementary in economic structures, shared monarchy has been viewed as the most important one in admissions standards. Also taking Jordan and Morocco as an example here. Although bound by Saudi Arabia, Jordan is just a Middle East country in the narrowest sense. Moreover, Jordan is a country with prevailing pan-arabism and it has differences with the GCC on Palestine-Israel conflict; Morocco, located in North Africa, is seriously influenced by African culture; economically, it relies on the EU. Therefore, it is not so much to view GCC actions as expanding cooperative mechanism to other regions in the Middle East as establishing a state of the union for monarchies in the Middle East. Conclusion The regional context of the regional cooperation in the Gulf region is composed by regional security, energy factors and monarchy form of government, which can explain the questions why the regional 117

19 cooperation in the Gulf region is weakly institutionalized and why the effect of current institutionalization is limited to a large extent. However, the real Gulf regional cooperation should include all Gulf States, promote regional security and economic integration, and play an effective role in easing regional security dilemma, coordinating power factors between internal and external environment, enhancing regional institutionalization and training the sense of community. Although the GCC has just enrolled two monarchies in the Middle East, such action may bring out new challenges to the redistribution of interests and power inside the organization. Lots of alliance treaties are required then, which has long been avoided by the GCC. China has maintained a sound relationship with all GCC countries and carried out cooperation in fields of trade and energy with them. On June 4, 2010, China and the GCC established a strategic dialogue mechanism and signed the Memorandum of Understanding on the Strategic Dialogue between the two. By far, five rounds of negotiations and three rounds of energy group dialogues have been held between China and the GCC on the establishment of the FTA. In future, while developing cooperation with the Gulf States, China should also attach attention to the regional context of the cooperation and coordinate the cooperative efforts with relevant parties. References Al-Rodhan, N. (2011). Critical turning points in the Middle East: , London: Palgrave Macmillan. Belenzon, S. & Schankerman, M. Spreading the word: Geography, policy and knowledge spillovers, retrieved November 21, 2013 from 118

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