DEPORTATION AND DISCRETION: REVIEWING THE RECORD AND OPTIONS FOR CHANGE. Marc Rosenblum. Migration Policy Institute.
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1 DEPORTATION AND DISCRETION: REVIEWING THE RECORD AND OPTIONS FOR CHANGE Marc Rosenblum Migration Policy Institute October 16, 2014
2 Report Overview Analysis of every removal FY Profile of deportees Description of removal patterns Adherence to DHS enforcement priorities Potential changes to enforcement priorities
3 Methodology ICE Enforcement Integrated Database (EID) Data obtained by New York Times FOIA request Report focuses exclusively on formal removals (i.e., excludes returns) Uses DHS data to model non-ice removals CBP non-judicial/non-criminal removals to Mexico or Canada Data are removal events, not individuals
4 Profile of Deportees Basic demographics 91% men vs. 53% of all unauthorized immigrants 91% from Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras vs. 73% of all unauthorized immigrants Mexico and Northern Triangle also: 95% of border removals 96% of expedited removals 98% of reinstatements of removal
5 Profile of Deportees Previous criminal convictions 300, , , , ,000 50, Criminals Noncriminals Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
6 Profile of Deportees Previous convictions: type of crime FY2003-FY2013 Non-criminals Immigration crimes Violent crimes Non-violent crimes Drug crimes Traffic crimes FY2013 Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
7 Profile of Deportees Previous convictions: border removals 350, , , , , ,000 50, Non-criminal Immigration crimes All other crimes Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
8 Profile of Deportees Previous convictions: interior removals 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Non-criminal Immigration crimes All other crimes Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
9 Profile of Deportees Previous convictions by location, FY2013 Border Removals Non-criminals Immigration crimes Violent crimes Non-violent crimes Drug crimes Traffic crimes Interior Removals Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
10 Removal Patterns Removals by arrest location 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50, Total DHS removals Interior Removals Border Removals Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
11 Removal Patterns Removal type by arrest location Border Removals Interior Removals Judicial Expedited Reinstatement Administrative Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
12 Removal Patterns Time between entry and apprehension: Among border apprehensions: 90% occur within 2 weeks of entry 6% occur more than 1 year after entry Among interior apprehensions: 11% occur within 2 weeks of entry 65% occur more than 1 year after entry Among reinstatements: 72% occur within 2 weeks of entry 15% occur more than 1 year after entry
13 Adherence to DHS Priorities Removals by enforcement priority 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50, Not a current priority Recent entrants Immigration obstructionists Criminals Note: Figure includes all DHS removals. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
14 DHS Priorities: Potential Changes Actual and predicted removals, by priority Scenario Removals Total Reduction Actual Removals 2,858,431 NA Predicted Removals Strict Adherence to Current Priorities 2,667,244 7% Exclude Immigration Crimes 2,660,412 7% Exclude non-dui Traffic Crimes 2,652,796 7% Exclude Level 3 Offenders 2,552,984 11% Exclude Nonviolent Crimes 2,424,926 15% Disregard Removals After 10 Years 2,654,943 7% Recent Illegal Entry < 1 Year 2,626,145 8% Recent Illegal Entry < 14 Days 2,599,381 9% Note: Table includes ICE removals only. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
15 DHS Priorities: Potential Changes Share of removals by number of priorities 2010 Enforcement Priorities Met FY (%) FY (%) All Three Priorities: Convicted Criminal/Obstructionist/Recent Entrant Two Priorities: Convicted Criminal/Obstructionist Convicted Criminal/Recent Entrant 5 4 Obstructionist/Recent Entrant One Priority: Criminal Only Obstructionist Only 8 6 Recent Entrant Only Not a Priority 9 5 Total Note: Table includes ICE removals only. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
16 DHS Priorities: Potential Changes Predicted reduction in removals, by scenario Excluded Categories Removals Reduction Actual Removals 2,858,431 NA Non-violent criminals; 10-year-old removal orders 2,383,994 17% "Level 3" criminals; 10-year-old removal orders 2,529,803 11% Non-DUI traffic crimes; 10-year-old removal orders 2,638,777 8% Immigration crimes; 10-year-old removal orders 2,645,394 7% Non-violent criminals; 1 year recent entrants 2,366,267 17% "Level 3" criminals; 1 year recent entrants 2,503,012 12% Non-DUI traffic crimes; 1 year recent entrants 2,610,790 9% Immigration crimes; 1 year recent entrants 2,617,629 8% Non-violent criminals; 10-year removals; 1 year recent entrants 2,320,460 19% "Level 3" criminals; 10-year removals; 1 year recent entrants 2,476,804 13% Non-DUI traffic crimes; 10-year removals; 1 year recent entrants 2,594,747 9% Immigration crimes; 10-year removals; 1 year recent entrants 2,600,101 9% Note: Table includes ICE removals only. Data are based on removal events; not individuals.
17 Discretion During Enforcement Limitations Most removals are priorities for more than one reason Most priority removals fall within core DHS interests Benefits of enforcement during discretion are less concrete than benefits of an affirmative (DACA-style) program Migration Policy Institute
18 Key Takeaways Stark differences between border and interior enforcement: Profile of deportees Removal trends Enforcement patterns Vast majority of removals meet current DHS priorities Changes to priorities would likely have a modest impact on removal numbers Migration Policy Institute
19 For More Information Marc Rosenblum Deputy Director, U.S. Immigration Policy Program MPI (202)
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