Mexico at the Crossroads

Transcription

1 Mexico at the Crossroads Peter Bohmer Economics for Everyone, August 24, 2018 Note: Photos are not included here. This is an expanded version of the talk I gave at Traditions Café in Olympia for Economics for Everyone on August 22, I. Returned in July from three months in Mexico where with faculty member. Maria Isabel Morales, I took a class from TESC, ARGC, to two states in Southern Mexico, Oaxaca and Chiapas. During our ten week program, we met and worked with many NGO s and social movements and I individuals including those involved in popular education, defense of communities and communal land against mining companies, the protection of water and the environment and against the privatization of land. And against violent repression. We met with teachers and students involved in supporting public education and indigenous languages, and popular educators. We also visited autonomous communities such as Alemania in Oaxaca and two Zapatista communities, La Realidad and Morelia in Chiapas. Oaxaca and Chiapas, are the two poorest States in Mexico and the two States with the highest proportion of indigenous or original people in Mexico, probably close to 50% although official estimates are much lower. Much of our study and interactions were with indigenous communities and their struggles against poverty, for relevant and quality education and for self-government. I stayed in Mexico three weeks after the class ended to cover July 1 st elections which were elections for over 3000 positions including all of their Senate and Deputies, the President, Mayor of Mexico City and eight governorships, mayors and local officials. I will discuss what happened in second part of talk, Part V. Talk based on studying Mexico for over 40 years including spending over two years there including over six months in Oaxaca. In this talk (writing), I will first analyze the depth and the many crises that most Mexican people are living with. Based on our three months travel and study in Oaxaca and Chiapas, I will describe and analyze several social movements. The courage and commitment of many of its members are inspiring. Although there seems to have been a decline in the strength and extent of collective resistance to the many forms of oppression compared to the period between the late 1960 s and 1980 s, there is growing resistance and organizing against mining and destruction of the environment in rural areas, especially indigenous ones. There is also, however, a lot of repression. I will also briefly examine the nature of migration into Mexico and from Mexico to the United States and conclude with my reflections on the recent elections in Mexico. In this very important elections, the progressive candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez and his reform party, MORENA, swept to victory. This is a positive result and step forward but unlikely by itself, to resolve or substantially reduce the major economic, environmental and social problems. 1

2 Map! II. Mexico is today in the midst of an economic, social, political and cultural crisis. July 1 st election is a step forward but unlikely to address fundamental problems in Mexico. A. Context, The PRI, explain, ruled Mexico , came back to Presidency, Enrique Pena Nieto, Until 1982, national capitalist development limited imports, development of industries such as Steel and Auto, Public ownership of telephones, electric companies, nationalization of oil in 1938; limited support for countryside, growth of income for urban population which was rapidly growing, cooption of movements and major repression, for example, Tlatelolco massacre in Mexico 2

3 city of over 300 mainly students on October 2, 1968 just before Olympics. Not as brutal as Central America many disappearances in 1970 s. 2. Since 1982, neoliberal development meaning selling off of public industries like telephones, source of wealth of Carlos Slim; welcoming without restrictions foreign investment like Walmart, Banks and mining companies and imports such as corn reducing spending for public education, making it easier for firms to fire people and work part-time rather than full-time, anti-union, e.g. teacher s union, lower real minimum wage, ending subsidies for small farmers (campesinos) production and basic food such as tortillas, milk. Institutionalized with Nafta in 1994 but had been going on for over 10 years and has continued. Open up of energy sector for drilling by foreign companies. Small cash program, Prospera, for families, about $55 a month. Income and wealth Inequality has grown as has an ideology of individual advancement rather than collective and community development. Top 1% has over 50% of wealth. Mexico today is totally integrated into a global capitalist economy large flows of money into country. Fear of capital flight, B. Economic Poverty is officially almost ½ of population, about 2/3 in rural areas and over 70% for Oaxaca and Chiapas. Although there is little official unemployment, over ½ of employment and growing is in the informal sector (not covered by labor laws, social security, selling goods on street); the minimum wage which covers far more workers then here is 88 pesos or less than $5 a day and falling when we consider inflation, maybe equivalent to $12 a day when we adjust for lower prices in Mexico. Real wages have been stagnant or falling for the last 10 years, very low economic growth. Slow decline of currency because of capital flight and higher inflation than U.S. to 19 pesos per dollar which makes imports more expensive. income distribution Mexico is one of the most unequal countries in the world, far more unequal than even U.S. C. Social, Environmental and Cultural Crisis 1. Insecurity beginning of Drug war mobilization of military over 30,000 disappeared, over 200,000 murders worst projected over 30,000, five times rate of U.S. although lower than Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador; many not reported much tied to violence among gangs, but many caught in crossfire, also kidnappings, extortion. high killing of women feminicide. Fear is quite high, in both urban and rural areas although not in all parts of country. 2. Corruption bribes for jobs, with police, government contracts, Odebrecht, contributes to cynicism-major campaign issue. 3

4 3. Migration From rural areas especially, often few over 18 in rural areas Lower price of corn, climate refugees, lack of schools, health services. To urban areas, U.S., Canada 4. Influence of U.S. and neoliberal culture consumerism, individualism, standards of beauty, declining indigenous languages, still 30 in Oaxaca and Chiapas. 5. Continuation of racism very high poverty among indigenous (original) people and communities; languages not valued, e.g., in schools. 6. Environmental lack of water, undrinkable; logging, air quality, erosion of land. D. Political Loss of support for PRI, Pena-Nieto 10% support in polls, Govt, police not seen as solution.. Less than 10% of crimes reported, less than 10% convictions. These interrelated crisis are not new but have intensified in recent years. There is of course, resistance-- growth of feminist and LGBT movements, against mining, keeping alive the case of the 43 students from Ayotzinapa, Guerrero who disappeared almost four years ago, but strong feelings of hopelessness, focus on private lives and survival. Will come back to in more detail. III. PE of Migration A. Mexican 1. Mexico has changed from rural to urban country, 75% rural and 25% urban in 1950 to 80% urban and 20% rural by Migration from countryside to urban areas and U.S. As already mentioned neoliberalism has been a major contributor, e.g. high poverty in rural areas, also from Mexican cities to U.S. as formal sector and living wage jobs have declined a % of work force. Growing violence also less of a factor than Central America has contributed. Almost 40 million people of Mexican descent in U.S. Before militarization, much movement back and forth. This has declined because of danger, costs of coyotes. Remittances, money sent back to Mexican families by Mexican immigrants to U.S., almost $30 billion in 2017, similar to tourism and oil. For most Mexicans who migrate distinction between immigrant and refugee is artificial as people are both. 2. Militarization of U.S. Border, deportations and racism towards Mexican immigrants is part of U.S. history, e.g., mass deportations in 1930 s but intensified with Trump and Republican party. 3. Position friend of mine, Mexican from El Paso, one mile from Juarez, no justification for life being different if one grows up in Juarez or El Paso. B. Central American Migration cannot be separated from U.S. wars and intervention there: El Salvador, Guatemala from 1954 coup to present, Honduras coup in 2009 which 4

5 U.S. at the very least knew about and then supported coup govt. Growth of gangs such as MS13 have origins in U.S. war and support of military in El Salvador. and deportations to El Salvador of gang members. 1. To Mexico Large migration into and through Mexico. Militarization of Southern Border, Guatemala, Merida Initiative (Plan Mexico) and 2014 Plan Frontera Sur. Three times more deportations from Mexico than U.S of Central Americans. Estimate of one million Central Americans in Mexico, a large numbers in Oaxaca and Chiapas, very exploited, paid even less than Mexican farm workers, 2. Huge repression, violence rapes, extortion, assaults by Mexican military, police, gangs, some community members. 3. Also solidarity. Identification, goes back to 1980 s, Guatemala to Chiapas, Samuel Ruiz accompanied Guatemalans fleeing war and murder. Mayan origin. a. Refugee Caravan in March, April 2018; over 1000; majority Honduran, support by communities in Mexico in April; many refugees still in Tijuana as U.S. has sharply reduced allowing entry and claims for asylum or granting them, e.g., fleeing domestic or gang violence is for the most part, no longer allowed as cause for asylum. Trump and Fox News falsely called it an invasion. Trump sent more troops to Mexican border as response. b. Refugee Centers 1. Hermanos en Camino Ixtepec, Oaxaca, Alejandro Solalinde, along trail, La Bestia. Theology of Liberation, see 2 slides, Hermanos en Camino. Support, protection, declining numbers, maybe 100 were there when we visited in May. 2. Also groups in Oaxaca, Caminos that puts up Central Americans and Voces de Mesoamerica, an excellent group in Chiapas that educates population, provides support for refugees legal, housing. Growing number of non-central Americans in Chiapas including Haitians, Africans. Growth of Immigrant Justice Movement in Mexico, U.S. important, connect it to U.S. foreign policy and neoliberalism. IV. Key Movements, mainly In Oaxaca and Chiapas A. Growth of Women s Movement, against violence, for reproductive rights Abortion without restriction only exist in Mexico City, Zapatista Communities. Domestic violence more open than U.S. Marches against feminicide, June 1, 2018 fotos from Chiapas, Show March against Feminicide, 1,2, 3 They connect forms of oppression: race (indigenous), class and gender in Oaxaca, Chiapas Growth of women s consciousness 5

6 Also LGBTI, gay pride--huge march 100,000 in Mexico City, June 23, Like U.S., growth of consciousness although long way to go and uneven. B. Anti-Extractivism, Environmental As part of development strategy, and increasing under outgoing President, Enrique Pena Nieto, selling mine concessions to Mexican and especially foreign companies Canadian, then Chinese and U.S. Special Economic Zones often communities are supposed to agree but often lied to, causing divisions, false promises about access to land, non-pollution (clean), fair payments for land, major resistance and repression. Major resistance in Oaxaca, Chiapas, Guerrero, Puebla, Michoacán. Inspiring, many generations resisting together, some victories but continual struggle, won t end with Presidency of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). C. Examples 1. Frente Popular en Defensa del Soconusco. (FPDS), Three year organization in Acacoyagua and Escuintla, Chiapas, blocking road with occupation, against 21 mining concessions: multigenerational, building support throughout Mexico and movements against mining and extractivism throughout the Americas. Preserve Soconusco River. Popular education, research, much by Otros Mundos, an ecosocialist group led by Mexican women, we affiliated with in Chiapas. Otros Mundos works respectfully with communities, mainly indigenous in defense of water and territory research, food sovereignty, teaching in Native Languages like Tzotzil and Tseltal. By extractivism I mean an economy built on taking out, removal extracting resources from the earth and selling on world market. Major resistance and repression throughout Americas to this strategy Dangerous jobs, pollution and contamination of air and water, expulsion of residents, Almost two year occupation (planton) by FPDS on main road. One of high points of trip, ate with them during occupation, shared experiences. see foto,frente Popular en Defensa de Soconusco see three fotos Otros Mundos 2. Finca Alemania Occupied deserted coffee plantation 5 years ago in Santa Maria Huatelco, near Oaxacan Coast 105 families, schools, production of bricks, food;, aim for autonomy, part of CODEDI. Committee for Defense of Indigenous Rights. Visited late May, 2018 See fotos, 2, Finca Alemania 6

7 Leader of Alemania autonomous Community and CODEDI, Abraham Hernandez, who we seminared with and welcomed us, very hospitable. Abraham Hernandez was kidnapped, tortured and assassinated in nearby community, July 7 th, Followed earlier executions. Professor Maria Isabel Morales said to me how it brought home reality of our trip and Mexico CODEDI is active in defense of territories, against mining and extractivism likely reason for assassination. According to Miguel Angel de los Santos, a professor of law at the Autonomous University in Chiapas and defender of political prisoners and communities, repression in Mexico today unlike 1970 s is mainly in rural areas and against communities and their leaders fighting mining concessions, dams, logging, dispossession, especially indigenous rural communities. Confirmed by Frayba, Center for Human Rights, Fray Bartolomo de las Casas founded by Bishop Samuel Ruiz, active in working for collective human rights, of indigenous communities and people. By collective rights--rights of indigenous people and community to their land, autonomy, culture, etc. 3. Many other e.g., Capulam in the Sierra del Norte, against wind parks, Parque Eolicas in Juchitan on the Isthmus of Oaxaca displacement, lies, health of animals and people, loss of haring, skin infection D. For food sovereignty, healthy food Movements, especially in Oaxaca against GMO products, maintaining native corn (maiz), to maintain access to land, against privatization of land and nature e.g. CEDICAM (Center for Integral Campesino Development of the Mixteca) Active in the upper Mixteca region of Oaxaca, a poor and dry region of major migration to the United States, including Oregon and Washington. Mixtecas are second largest indigenous group, after Zapotecs in Oaxaca. CEDICAM is involved in developing organic agriculture in the Mixteca by sharing knowledge and teaching members of communities to teach others about water conservation, organic fertilizers, producing for themselves and nearby communities, history, food sovereignty. The director of CEDICAM told us that although the amount of rainfall has not decreased in the last 40 to 50 years, because of climate change, the rain was five or more times intense when it rained, although only one fifth as many days. This caused further erosion of the soil leading to less production and more migration. See Photo: CEDICAM E. Racial Justice Afro-Mexican community over a million, Oaxaca, Veracruz-- demand for recognition. Visited community in Costa Chica of Oaxaca. See fotos, 2 Afro Mexicano 7

8 F. Labor Movement weak, teachers, Student (omitted in talk) 1. Weakness of labor movement, have been mainly connected to the PRI 2. Decline in membership and influence since Mexican turn to neoliberalism in 1980 s. 3. Significant has been reform part of Teacher s Union, CNTE (National Coordination of Workers in Education) in Michoacán, Guerrero, Chiapas and especially Oaxaca, Section 22. a. Major occupation led by Section 22 in Oaxaca in 2006, self-government, murderous repression, over 20 killed. Led to some improvements for teachers wages but not more b. Neoliberalism in education cut funding, Educational reform: require standardized tests to teachers for hiring and retention, easier firing, less job security. It is really an attempt to decrease labor rights., c. Section 22 led May Day, 2018 protest in Oaxaca connected labor demands, for teachers and health workers to support for political prisoners and against repression. Strike by teachers in Oaxaca and Tuxtla Gutierrez, Chiapas in May, June Occupation for a month in Zocalo in Oaxaca by Section 22-- main demand ending Education Reform, which is labor deform occupation ended without victory although Lopez Obrador said he will overturn educational reform Need for teachers union to make more of a priority, quality of public education they have lost public support since 2006 also some problems of corruption and divisions within CNTE and Section 22. See photos, May Day (2) and Teacher s Strike, Oaxaca 4. Although not currently strong, there are student movements with anticapitalist perspectives at public universities and teacher s colleges (Normal Schools). There is also growing interest at the teachers colleges of learning to teach in Native languages. The social movement, led by the parents of the 43 students from the teacher s college in Ayotzinapa, Guerrero who were kidnapped and disappeared on September 26, 2016 with government involvement and cover up has continued and kept their case in the public consciousness. It has furthered the loss of legitimacy of the Mexican state and increased understanding about their complicity in disappearances. We met with a student who was shot but survived the kidnapping of the Ayotzinapa students. G. Alternate Media, Cultural Resistance (skipped) 1. Mainstream media newspaper, radio, TV absence of left perspective existed in past, e.g., La Jornada, El Proceso progressive but limited today. 8

9 2. Healthy alternate media collectives websites. community radio, video met with many in Oaxaca and Chiapas also Zapatista radio in Altamirano In Juchitan, Oaxaca community Radio Totopo, actively involved in struggle against destructive wind farms, and in solidarity with social moments, See fotos, Radio Totopo and Radio Comunitaria and Parque Eolica, Juchitan Also community Radio of EZLN, Altamirano 3. In Oaxaca with a group we affiliated with SURCO, Servicios Universitarios y Redes de Conocimientos, construction of internet connection and free cell phone use in poor rural communities, like Yaviche, Oaxaca (Zapotec Community in Sierra del Norte, Oaxaca. 4. As a result of 2006 Occupation in Oaxaca by teachers and wider coalition, APPO, development of revolutionary art collectives and people committed to working with oppressed communities. a. We affiliated with Lapiztola in Oaxaca. They and with communities do impressive posters, murals, graffiti, etc. For example, they did a painting of John Carlos and Tommy Smith raising their fists in support of Black Liberation at the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City opposite, Centro Ollin Tlahtoalli, whom we were affiliated and studied Spanish with. We did the following participatory art project with Lapiztola. Photo--Lapiztola b. Also worked with Demetrio Barrita, Zapotec artist who works with communities throughout Oaxaca and Puebla. Photos -Demetrio Barrita (2) c. Also in San Cristobal, Chiapas Photos, Engaged Art H. Zapatistas and Indigenous struggles (Original People) 1.!994 armed uprising, today five autonomous areas small, we visited two La Realidad y Morelia, poor communities in Chiapas in poorest state in Mexico. 2. Demand for rights -San Andres 1996 which govt signed with EZLN but never ratified: included control over natural resources, development and autonomy. 3. Major repression, e.g., Acteal, killing of 45 people in December, 1997 from group, Las Abejas (the bees) unarmed although similar program to Zapatistas. Military bases are near places we visited but threats today are from paramilitaries, nearby communities. 4. Declining support for Zapatistas since They supported a candidate Mariuchuy, head of National Indigenous Congress (CNI) where EZLN plays a major role but she had limited support in indigenous communities outside of Chiapas. Also Mexico is an urban country but there program is primarily rural and indigenous. Govt. has provided resources to 9

10 nearby communities undermining support for Zapatistas. They have not been effective in develop larger program and strategy that goes beyond Chiapas. 5. We class of 26, spent six days in two communities, La Realidad and Morelia. We met with their local governments, Juntas de Bien Gobierno. EZLN government seemed very respected by community; part of, community, honest. Women play major role, Acceptance of LGBT. Equality, Major decline in violence against women, proud of indigenous languages, indigenous culture. 6. Although small in population that is EZLN, very positive is EZLN alternative to capitalism and neoliberalism: communal land and enterprises, use of popular assemblies for decisions (also true in many other communities) 7. These caracoles get no support from Mexican government their own schools, health clinics, security, armed self-defense. 8. To Zapatistas Cause of oppression and injustice is global capitalism, solution is autonomy meaning self-rule. Some success and important advances for quality of life but autonomy is limited. Zapatista communities are not economically autonomous: they sell coffee on global market (no control over price); many work outside caracoles, foreign donations. Only one hospitals for major sickness have to go outside EZLN communities although impressive health clinics. EZLN communities not participate in elections, often position that main daily struggles was between Zapatistas and Partidistas, i.e., communities that supported one of the political parties. To EZLN, all parties were equally supportive of a corrupt and oppressive global capitalist system. (true of two main parties in Chiapas, Green Party and PRI but I question this with regards to MORENA (see next section, V) 9. Feeling of freedom and dignity inside communities although dangerous outside, 10. We were invited, painted a mural in the community that was more hospitable, Morelia. See Photos Aguascalientes, Morelia V. Mexican Elections, July 1, 2018 A , Dominance of Neoliberal Parties----mass corruption by corporations, US and Mexican. Government, police, military connected to narcotraffickers and gangs including the PRD (Revolutionary Democratic Party) which started as left party in PRD involved in disappearance and coverup of students in Ayotzinapa, Guerrero. Little faith in elections: stealing of Presidential Elections in 1988 from Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas in 1988 and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the PRD in Worse at local level. Together with stagnation of economy, insecurity, possible collapse of PRI which has had major organizations in communities as well as mass organizations unions (CTM), peasant, student, etc. high possibility of a non-mainstream party winning at all levels although cynicism. 10

11 B. AMLO left PRD after 2012 election, immediately formed Movement for National Regeneration, which became a political party (MORENA) in 2014, very dependent on AMLO C. Elections as already mentioned at all levels on July 1, Three major parties, who led coalitions, One coalition led by PRI, included Green Party; a second coalition led by PAN, included PRD; and third, led by Morena with two other parties, PT (Workers Partyt, left) and Encuentro Social, PES (conservative, family values) called Juntos Haremos Historia (Together We Make History) Latter very dominated by Morena and AMLO. D. Main issue of Lopez Obrador and where he connected most with population in campaign was anti-corruption, history of non-corruption, e.g., as mayor of Mexico City, Improve security and reduce gang violence not by further militarization of country but by increasing social programs and reducing poverty. E. Violent campaign, 150 politicians and 40 candidates from all political parties killed, also many journalists. F. Expectation and fear of fraud by population because of past elections many observers, I was one, visited some pooling booths. Strong support for AMLO but fear election would be stolen although Lopez Obrador way ahead in polls. I think he was too far ahead in polls to carry out the level of fraud necessary to deny him victory. G. Results, overwhelming victory for Lopez Obrador and MORENA: small growth in turnout, Even bigger victory than polls predicted. 53% for AMLO, (Morena and Juntos Haremos Historia), they won 31 of 32 states; 22% for PAN Candidate and only 16% for PRI. A fourth Trump type candidate, El Bronco, Jaime Rodriguez got 5% of the vote, Large majority for Morena in the Chamber of Deputies, (like our House of Representatives) 300 out of 500 seats; smaller but significant majority in Senate, 69 out of 128 seats. Even with fraud, MORENA won majority of governors including the largest State, the State of Mexico that were open and the mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum. EZLN communities and autonomous communities like Cheran in Michoacán did not participate in election. H. Incredible jubilation and excitement-- this is very important given feelings of cynicism and despair. I was in Zocalo, night of July 1 st when it became clear AMLO had won. Enthusiastic and huge crowd, 8-10,000 to the left of Lopez Obrador enthusiastic applause when AMLO on large screen said poor would be his priority, also indigenous people and rural communities and LGBTI rights. Similar reaction in Zocalo in Mexico City, 100, 000 people plus., Very positive and exciting and important was hope, feeling of community, possibility. See photos: Election victory, Juntos Haremos Histori 11

12 I. New govt will take power December 1 st, 2018 PRI in power until then but so far smooth transition Post-election situation facing AMLO and MORENA global capitalism, fear of capital, Mexican and foreign, fleeing country (capital flight), and capital strike causing deeper econ crisis. AMLO ran a less left, less anti-corporate campaign than 2006 and 2012, e.g. modify not end Nafta; he assured bankers in campaign he would work with financial capital, was not a threat to them; and he got some support from national capital. J. Proposed program and policies during campaign and since election victory 1. Increase pensions, include informal sector (double pension per retiree); significantly increase scholarships and financial aid, especially for low income and rural youth;, increase prices to campesinos for food they produce and low or no interest credit to them; increase significantly government spending for health and education; Large increase in minimum wage. Call for 4 th transformation which is vague but claim equivalent to earlier ones such as Mexican Revolution, 2. Possibly legalize marijuana, opiods (?); release people from prison for nonviolent drug crimes, also release nonviolent people involved in production and trade of drugs. Put armed forces back in barracks both on border and in drug war. Focus less on southern border with Guatemala, better treatment of migrants but replace military by modernized and better trained police which is a limited change. 3. Pay for increased social program spending not by raising taxes but by ending or reducing corruption. Anti-Corruption major part of his campaign, e.g., in debates with other debates 4. Continue to honor existing contracts with mining and energy companies that were not corrupt, non-bribes, that were honest and legal. Where corruption was involved, contracts would be reopened with Mexican companies favored as would they be in future concessions. In energy, more public investment but continued role of transnational oil corporations. 5. Pro regulated market, private ownership of the means of production. Better labor regulations, more workers rights. 6. Orthodox fiscal and monetary policy balance government budget, independent national bank. 7. Independent foreign policy against intervention in Venezuela, Nicaragua, more independent from U.S. but aim for good relations. 8. Airport backing off of total opposition to Atenco Airport near Mexico City;, met with Carlos Slim now only against use of public money for it. Has been major struggle in Mexico for 15 years, would displace thousands. 9. Support for 1996 San Andres Accords, Indigenous economic rights, more self-determination. So far opposition by EZLN to AMLO, long history of conflict. 12

13 SUMMARY--Some important and positive policies are likely but especially in the economic realm are insufficient to address the neoliberal and extractivist model. K. Cabinet mixed, mainly establishment, often served PRI or PAN governments, although many, mainly in noneconomic positions good. 1. Good Secretary of Interior, Olga Sanchez Cordero, (key position), active in 1968 student movement has called for transparency, human rights, legalizing of abortion, marijuana and maybe opium, ending of repression but not for ending repressive Law of Internal Security of Pena Nieto. Also Irma Sandoval, who will be Controller General, dealing with corruption and contracts with corporations. 2. Economics mainstream academic economists mainly Keynesian but also Alfonso Romo, main adviser; industrialist from Monterrey. Powerful neoliberal, socially and economically conservative. L. Conclusion Big Step forward; So much better than alternatives in Mexico; It is also important because it is against the trend in Latin America of movement to the right Argentina, Chile, Brazil. 1. Centrist economically Not willing to break fully with neoliberalism fear of backlash; at best like Lula in Brazil in terms of economic policies reduction of poverty, some improvement in income distribution, important and positive reforms but limited campaigned against raising any taxes, even for wealthy; also like Lula, conservative fiscal policy balance government budget. 2. AMLO is honest, good for popular morale, more hopeful population, less cynicism and resignation. Likely decline in corruption but probably insufficient to generate enough revenue to adequately increase spending for health, education, anti-poverty programs. 3. Systemic corruption and insecurity are deeply rooted in the Mexican political economy. The replacement of the PRI and PAN by AMLO and MORENA is necessary. However, honesty at the top, the President and some of his cabinet, and growth in anti-poverty and social programs are unlikely to reduce substantially corruption and violence in the next six years. It is likely that these major social problems will not worsen; this is important but insufficient. 4. The program and political philosophy and economics of AMLO and MORENA are not transformational- at best social democratic or even worse, a modified and gentler neoliberalism. 5. Less repressive but how willing is he to challenge behavior of police, military, para military? 13

14 6. US, especially with Trump, are likely to have major conflicts with new Mexican e.g. immigration We should support movements and govt there critically and strongly oppose U.S. threats and intervention in Mexico. 7. Does hope and growth of optimism by popular classes get translated into waiting for AMLO to solve economic and social crisis then limited change. Best possibility is organizing and building to the left of MORENA and AMLO coalition of EZLN and autonomous communities like Cheran; together with labor, women s groups, communities, environmental groups, indigenous people, students, anti-capitalist, etc.-- that this coalition support AMLO and MORENA against right-wing and U.S. but that it also that it develops a left formation that is independent of MORENA, and aimed at revolutionary change to an economically and socially just Mexican society. I wanted to be positive about the July, 2018 election in Mexico and was very excited when the results came in on the night of July 1 st and the next day, July 2 nd. The huge defeat of the PRI and PAN is exciting and very positive and necessary. The victory of AMLO and MORENA at all levels of government, e.g., their majority in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate, is an important step forward for the large majority of Mexican people and will make possible needed reforms. There will be important and positive changes in the next few years that improve the lives of most Mexicans with the new AMLO led govt. However, these improvements will also be limited, given the Mexico s insertion and role in the global capitalist economy and the interrelated severe crises in Mexico-- unless this election becomes an opportunity for the growth and working together of social movements, groups and maybe new political parties committed to the economic, social and political transformation and liberation of Mexico. Thank You. Peter Bohmer 14