This research is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council and is a part of UPTAP programme

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Prudence Austin
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of Edinburgh This research is funded by the UK Economic

1 Understanding Immigration Labour Market Impact in Britain Marina Shapira Centre for Educational Sociology University of Edinburgh This research is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council and is a part of UPTAP programme

2 Research Aim To examine the issue of the labour market impact of immigrants in the context of the British labour market. Research Questions: Are differences in labour marker outcomes systematically related to spatial differences in the size of the immigrant population? Does immigrant labour market effect vary: (a) according to the period of migrant arrival in the UK; (b) among different ethnic groups within the British born population; and (c) among groups of population with different levels of education.

3 Migrants have a profound impact on their host country s labour market; There has been a recent dramatic increase in the number of immigrants to Britain; The effect of immigration on the UK labour market is a key policy issue; Existing international and UK research is not consistent.

4 Immigration labour market impact: Theoretical framework of the research Classical economic theory: Migrants compete only with native workers whose level of skills is comparable with that of the immigrant. The influx of immigrant labour force in the local labour market violates labour market equilibrium and results in: the reduction of wages of non-immigrant workers with comparable skills; displacement of native-born workers by immigrants. Existing international and UK research is not consistent. In this study I assess immigrant labour market impact separately for populations with different levels of educational qualification.

5 Immigration labour market impact: Theoretical framework of the present research Sociological theory: stresses the importance of recognition of the multiethnic context of labour markets. suggests that immigrant labour market impact: Is multidirectional and can be positive for some ethnic groups while negative for others; depends on the relative size and number of ethnic minority groups in the local labour market; depends on a degree of segregation between ethnic groups and existence of ethnic enclaves. In this study I control for the size of the ethnic minority population and for the relative size of veteran and new immigrant populations.

6 Immigration labour market impact: Theoretical framework of the present research Geography of the local labour market approach: Spatial difference in labour market opportunities is an important factor that affects the labour market outcomes of workers. Immigrants are attracted to labour markets with particular characteristics and those characteristics have impact both on the labour market outcomes of immigrant and non-immigrant population. In this study Icontrol for differences in labour market conditions across local labour markets measured by: rates of employment; the degree of socio-economic inequality; job opportunities in low-skilled vs. high-skilled services and industries.

7 Data Sources The 2006 Annual Population Survey (APS) data. The size of the Annual Population Survey for 2006 is 375,865 individuals. The 2006 APS provides enhanced annual data for the UK and covers the sample of at least 601 individuals for 201 Unitary Authority (UA)/Local Authority Districts (LAD) among which 180 are included in the present analyses. The aggregate level characteristics at the level of unitary authorities/local areas are estimated from the 2006 weighed APS.

8 Population and sample The individual level units of analysis are individuals aged (excluding self employed). The units of analysis at the level of local labour markets are Unitary Authorities across Britain. 21 localities were excluded from the final sample due to the very small numbers of ethnic minorities and the analysis was conducted on 180 (UA/LAD).

9 Variables: Dependent variable: Labour market destinations Original Categories from the EGP scheme I. Higher Managers and Professionals II. Lower Managers and Professionals III. Higher and Lower Grade Routine non-manual Employees IV. Small Employers V. Lower Supervisory and Technical VI. Semi-routine occupations (skilled manual workers) VII. Routine occupations Categories of the dependent variable 1. Social classes I to III: managerial, professional and intermediate occupations 2. Social classes V and VI: skilled manual and lower supervisory occupations 3. Social class VII: semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations and short term unemployed (reference category) 4. Those who do not have social class: never worked/out of the labour force/long term unemployed

10 Variables Dependent variable Natural logarithm of monthly wages of employed population (excluding self-employed)

11 Independent variables Level of individuals: Comparison groups Ethnicity White British (reference group); Immigrants; British born ethnic minorities. Religion Christians (reference group); Muslims; other religions. Age (and age squared in the income regression). Tenure in the UK for immigrants. Gender ( men the reference group).

12 Level of educational qualification (National Vocational Qualifications): 1. no qualification (or unknown); 2. below NVQ level2; N 3. NVQ Level2; 4. NVQ Level3 (reference group); 5. NVQ level4 and level5. Marital status: 1. single (reference group) 2. married (cohabited) 3. widowed, divorced; separated. Control variables in the regression model that predicts labour market destinations: 1. student status 2. disability status 3. pensioner single parent family 4. number of children Independent variables Level of individuals (contd)

13 Independent variables Level of individuals (contd) The percentage of migrants in UA. The proportion of new immigrants (ie post 2004 arrivals) among all migrants in UA. The percentage of ethnic minorities in UA. The rate of employment. Percentage of UA population employed in manufacturing sector. Percentage of UA population employed in construction sector. Percentage of UA population employed in finance sector. Percentage of UA population employed in personal and other services sector. Percentage of UA population who have unskilled jobs pool. The degree of the overall socio-economic well being of the locality percentage of population in the managerial, administrative and professional occupation (socio-economic classes I and II).

14 Method Multilevel analysis using the Modelling (HLM) statistical package: Hierarchical Lineal level of individuals population aged in Britain in 2006; level of local labour markets 180 unitary authorities in Britain.

15 Method (contd) To test if the impact of the size of immigrant population in the locality on wages of workers varies by their level of education, minority status, religion, or immigrant status the effects of the following independent variables to vary across localities: level of educational qualifications ethnic minority Muslims immigrants. J J Sq J Q J Sq J Q Sq Logit(E k ) ij =( γ 00 + µ oj + γ qkzsj )+ γ q0 x qij + µ qj x qij + γ qs z sj x qij j=1 j=1s=1 j=1q=1 j=1q=1 j=1q=1s=1

16 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Chart 1. Immigrants in Britain, by national/ethnic origin and period of immigrantion Period of immigration before 1961 Period of immigration Period of immigration Period of immigration Estern Europe Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand Rest of Americas Africa Pakistan, Bangladesh India Middle East Rest of Asia Western Europe

17 Chart 2. Percentage of immigrants in localities by government office region - localities with a percentage of immigrants higher than median value Tyne and Wear Middlesbrough Greater Blackburn with Blackpool UA North Yorkshire South Yorkshire West Yorkshire North York UA Lincolnshire Northamptonshire Derby UA Leicester UA Nottingham UA Warwickshire West Midlands Stoke-on-Trent Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Essex Hertfordshire Norfolk Suffolk Peterborough UA Luton UA Southend-on-Sea Thurrock UA Inner London Outer London Buckinghamshire East Sussex Hampshire Kent Oxfordshire Surrey West Sussex Medway UA Bracknell Forest West Berkshire Reading UA Slough UA Windsor and Wokingham UA M ilton Keynes Brighton and Portsmouth UA Southampton UA Cornwall and The Gloucestershire Wiltshire Bath and North Bristol, City of South Plymouth UA Bournemouth UA Swindon Wrexham Ceredigion Swansea Vale of Cardiff Aberdeen City Dundee City East Lothian Edinburgh, City Glasgow City Stirling North North East West Yorkshire & Humberside East Midlands West Midlands Eastern London South East South West Wales Scotland

18 Chart 3. Level of highest educational qualification, by immigration and ethnicity status, UK population aged in % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Don't know No qualifications Other qualifications Below NVQ Level 2 NVQ level 2 Trade Apprenticeships NVQ level 3 NVQ Level 4 and above 20% 10% 0% ethn min white british immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_

19 Chart 5. Destinations in the labour market of the UK population aged in % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% no class(out of the LF, long term unemployed) class VII (semi-skilled or unskilled occupations) or short term unemployed class V to VI (lower supervisory and skilled manual occupations) selfemployed class I to III (higher and lower managerial and professional and intermedeate occupations) 20% 10% 0% ethn min white british immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_

20 Chart 6. Occupational destribution by immigration and ethnicity status, UK population aged in % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 9 Elementary Occupations 8 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 7 Sales and Customer Service Occupations 6 Personal Service Occupations 5 Skilled Trades Occupations 4 Administrative and Secretarial 3 Associate Professional and Technical 2 Professional occupations 1 Managers and Senior Officials 20% 10% 0% ethn min white british immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_

21 Chart 7. Destribution of the UK population aged by the main brunches of industry, immigrant and ethnicity status, in % 80% 60% O-Q: Other services L-N: Public admin, educ & health J-K: Banking, finance & insurance etc I: Transport & communication G-H: Distribution, hotels & restaurants F: Construction 40% D: Manufacturing C,E: Energy & water A-B: Agriculture & fishing % % ethn min white british immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_

22 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Labour market destinations of populaiton in Britain acording to spatial concentrations of "old" immigration up to 2 percent 2 to 5 percent 5 to 10 percent 10 to 20 percent 20 to 30 percent more than 30 percent up to 2 percent 2 to 5 percent 5 to 10 percent 10 to 20 percent 20 to 30 percent more than 30 percent up to 2 percent 2 to 5 percent 5 to 10 percent 10 to 20 percent 20 to 30 percent more than 30 percent up to 2 percent 2 to 5 percent 5 to 10 percent 10 to 20 percent 20 to 30 percent more than 30 percent ethn min white british immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_ class VII no class class V to VI selfemployed class III class I andii

23 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Labour market destinations of populaiton in Britain acording to spatial concentrations of "new" immigrantion no immigrants up to 1 percent 1 to 2 percent 2 to 4 percent 4 to 6 percent more than 6 percent no immigrants up to 1 percent 1 to 2 percent 2 to 4 percent 4 to 6 percent more than 6 percent no immigrants up to 1 percent 1 to 2 percent 2 to 4 percent 4 to 6 percent more than 6 percent no immigrants up to 1 percent 1 to 2 percent 2 to 4 percent 4 to 6 percent more than 6 percent status2: ethn min status2: white british status2: immigrants before 2004 status2: immigrants 2004_ class VII no class class V to VI selfemployed class III class I andii

24 Pearson s correlations among the local labour market level variables I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X I. Immigration * -0.42** -0.27** -0.11* * -0.16** -0.14** II. Immigration ** -0.14** III. Immigration ** 0.21** ** ** 0.13** IV. Immigration * 0.18** 0.09 V. Ethnic minorities ** -0.27** ** 0.07 VI. Employed ** VII. Manufacturing * -0.41** -0.22** VIII. Construction ** -0.34** IX. Banking and Finance ** X. Class I 1

25 Impact of the 1 % increase in the size of the immigrant population on the odds of economic inactivity vs the odds of unskilled jobs or short terms unemployment for different groups of British population Average population immigrants British bor ethnic minorities Without educational qualificaions 0.04 gross impact net impact gross impact net impact gross impact net impact gross impact net impact Percentage of immigrants Percentage of new immigrants among immigrants Percentage of the British born ethnic minorities

26 Impact of the 1 % increase in the size of the immigrant population on the odds of white collar occupations vs the odds of unskilled jobs or short terms unemployment for different groups of the British population White British Immigrants British bor ethnic minorities Without educational qualificaions 0.04 gross impact net impact gross impact net impact gross impact net impact gross impact net impact Percentage of immigrants 0 Percentage of new immigrants among immigrants Percentage of the British born ethnic minorities

27 Gross and net effects of 1% increase in the relative size of migrant population in the local labour market on wages of employed population in local labour market White British Ethnic minorities Immigrants Unclassified level of educational qualifications(mostly new immigrants) NVQ Level Gross effect Net Effect Gross effect Net Ef f ect Gross effect Net Effect Gross effect Net Effect Gross effect Net Ef f ect Percentage of all migrant in the LLm Percentage of "new " immigrants among immgrants

28 Summary In localities where migrants make a larger share of the whole population, the British born population has higher chances of being economically inactive rather than working in low skilled occupations or being short-term unemployed. British born workers are less likely to work in white collar occupations in localities where immigrants who arrived in the UK in 2004 or thereafter make a larger share of the whole immigrant population. Immigrant spatial concentrations do not affect the chances of nonimmigrant population working in higher status blue collar occupations. Immigrant spatial concentrations have different effects on the labour market outcomes of British born and the immigrants themselves. Immigrants who live in localities with large immigrant populations (both old and new immigrants) are less likely to work in white collar occupations. In localities with higher concentration of ethnic minorities both the White British population and immigrants are more likely to work in white collar occupations. Ethnic minorities themselves as well as low skilled workers are less likely to work in white collar occupations in localities with a large presence of British born ethnic minorities.

29 Summary (contd) Concentrations of immigrants have a beneficial impact on the wage levels of British-born populations, but in localities where new immigrants make up alarge proportion of the immigrant population, the wages of British-born workers are negatively affected by spatial concentration of new immigrants. positive relationship between the wages of all British-born workers and the size of the immigrant population in their locality is weaker for those with the highest levels of educational qualifications. the highly qualified are also the group whose wages are most adversely affected where new immigrants make up a large proportion of the immigrant population. impact of the size of immigrant population on the wages of unskilled workers is no different from its impact on workers with average levels of skills or education.

30 Conclusions Overall immigration has a positive labour market impact in term of wages for all groups of non-immigrant population. Immigrants are competing with non-immigrant workers for low skilled occupation, with the latter are more likely being economically inactive than working in unskilled jobs in localities with large immigrant populations. Overall, spatial concentrations of new immigrants are not related (in a statistically significant way) to labour market outcomes of the non-immigrant population if the the local labour market conditions are accounted for. Spatial concentrations of new immigrants do have negative labour market impact (in respect of wages and opportunities of working in white-collar occupations) for non-immigrant workers in the localities where new immigrants make a larger share of the whole population of immigrants.

31 Chart 2.1 Spatial distribution of the immigrants according to the period of immigration in London newimmigrants oldimmigrants Camden Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Islington Kensington and Chelsea Lambeth Lewisham Newham Southwark Tower Hamlets Wandsworth Westminster Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Kingston upon Thames Merton Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Sutton WalthamForest 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Inner London Outer London Chart 2.2 Spatial distribution of the new immigrants - old immigrants ration in London immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_ Camden Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Islington Kensington and Chelsea Lambeth Lewisham Newham Southwark Tower Hamlets Wandsworth Westminster Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Harrow Hillingdon Hounslow Kingston upon Thames Merton Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Sutton WalthamForest Government office regions: Inner London Government office regions: Outer London

32 Chart 2.5 Spatial distribution of the immigrants according to the period of immigration in Midlands, South, East and South West of England newimmigrants oldimmigrants Derbyshire Leicestershire Lincolnshire Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire Derby UA Leicester UA Rutland UA NottinghamUA Birmingham Coventry Dudley Sandwell Solihull Walsall Wolverhampton Shropshire Staffordshire Warwickshire Worcestershire Herefordshire, Telford and Stoke-on-Trent Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Essex Hertfordshire Norfolk Suffolk Peterborough UA Luton UA Southend-on-Sea Thurrock UA Buckinghamshire East Sussex Hampshire Kent Oxfordshire Surrey West Sussex Medway UA Bracknell Forest West Berkshire Reading UA Slough UA Windsor and WokinghamUA Milton Keynes Brighton and Portsmouth UA Southampton UA Isle of Wight UA Cornwall and The Devon Dorset Gloucestershire Somerset Wiltshire Bath and North Bristol, City of North Somerset South Plymouth UA Torbay Bournemouth UA Poole UA Swindon East of England South East South West Rest of West Midlands East Midlands West Midlands Metropolitan County Chart 2.6 Spatial distribution of the new immigrants-old immigrants ratio in Midlands, South, East and South West of England 100% 90% immigrants before % immigrants 2004_ 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Swindon Poole UA Bournemouth UA Torbay Plymouth UA South North Somerset Bristol, City of Bath and North Wiltshire Somerset Gloucestershire Dorset Devon Cornwall and The Isle of Wight UA Southampton UA Portsmouth UA Brighton and Milton Keynes WokinghamUA Windsor and Slough UA Reading UA West Berkshire Bracknell Forest Medway UA West Sussex Surrey Oxfordshire Kent Hampshire East Sussex Buckinghamshire Thurrock UA Southend-on-Sea Luton UA Peterborough UA Suffolk Norfolk Hertfordshire Essex Cambridgeshire Bedfordshire Stoke-on-Trent Telford and Herefordshire, Worcestershire Warwickshire Staffordshire Shropshire Wolverhampton Walsall Solihull Sandwell Dudley Coventry Birmingham NottinghamUA Rutland UA Leicester UA Derby UA Nottinghamshire Northamptonshire Lincolnshire Leicestershire Derbyshire East of England South East South West Rest of West Midlands East Midlands West Midlands Metropolitan County

33 Chart 2.3 Spatial distribution of the immigrants according to the period of immigration in Scotland newimmigrants oldimmigrants Argyll &Bute West Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire GlasgowCity Inverclyde North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire Eilean Siar, Orkney &Shetland Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Angus Scot Borders, The Clackmannanshire Dumfries and Galloway Dundee City East Lothian Edinburgh, City of Falkirk Fife Highland Midlothian Moray Perth and Kinross Stirling West Lothian 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Strathclyde Rest of Scotland Chart 2.4 Spatial distribution of the new immigrants-old immigrants ratio in Scotland immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_ Argyll &Bute West Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire GlasgowCity Inverclyde North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire Eilean Siar, Orkney &Shetland Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Angus Scot Borders, The Clackmannanshire Dumfries and Galloway Dundee City East Lothian Edinburgh, City of Falkirk Fife Highland Midlothian Moray Perth and Kinross Stirling West Lothian Strathclyde Rest of Scotland

34 Chart 2.7 Spatial destribution of immigrants according to period of immigration in the North of England newimmigrants oldimmigrants Tyne and Wear Rest of North East Greater Manchester Merseyside Rest of North West South Yorkshire West Yorkshire Rest of Yorkshire & Humberside Chart 2.8 Spatial distribution of the new immigrant-old immigrant ratio according in the North of England 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% immigrants before 2004 immigrants 2004_ 30% 20% 10% 0% Gateshead Newcastle North Tyneside South Tyneside Sunderland Durham Northumberland Hartlepool UA Middlesbrough Redcar and Gateshead Newcastle North Tyneside South Tyneside Sunderland Durham Northumberland Hartlepool UA Middlesbrough Redcar and Stockton-on- Darlington UA Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Knowsley Liverpool St. Helens Sefton Wirral Cheshire Cumbria Lancashire Halton UA Warrington UA Blackburn with Blackpool UA Barnsley Doncaster Rotherham Sheffield Bradford Calderdale Kirklees Leeds Wakefield North Yorkshire Kingston Upon East Riding of North East North York UA Stockton-on- Darlington UA Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Knowsley Liverpool St. Helens Sefton Wirral Cheshire Cumbria Lancashire Halton UA Warrington UA Blackburn with Blackpool UA Barnsley Doncaster Rotherham Sheffield Bradford Calderdale Kirklees Leeds Wakefield North Yorkshire Kingston Upon East Riding of North East North York UA Tyne and Wear Rest of North East Greater Manchester Merseyside Rest of North West South Yorkshire West Yorkshire Rest of Yorkshire & Humberside

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The Rules May Lawn Tennis Association Limited The Rules Effective 17 May 2018 Lawn Tennis Association Limited The Rules Effective 7 May 208 Lawn Tennis Association Limited INTERPRETATION The Rules. Defined Terms and Interpretation. In the Articles and these Rules, unless the context