SKILLED MIGRATION; THE PERSPECTIVE OF EDUCATED AND SKILLFUL AFGHAN CITIZENS FEBRUARY-MARCH 2017 ALI HASSANI

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1 SKILLED MIGRATION; THE PERSPECTIVE OF EDUCATED AND SKILLFUL AFGHAN CITIZENS FEBRUARY-MARCH 2017 ALI HASSANI

2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper is the result of a team effort, and every team member has played an important role in this research. The Skilled Migration Team would like to express gratitude to all of the enumerators and fieldworkers involved in the project. I would like to specifically thank the following people for their contribution in the implementation of the research and/or preparation of this report. My good friends, the executive director of SDFO, Mr. Shakib Mohsenyar and Abdul Rahim Karim have been my best colleagues from the beginning of the research. Their contributions, especially in the review of the questionnaire, careful reading of the draft report, and participation in the discussion group have been valuable. Also I should thank Mr. Abdul Zaher Modaqeq for his participation in the process of developing the questionnaire, reading the draft report, and giving valuable consultation and suggestions. I have learned a lot about research from Mr. Modaqeq. Lastly, I thank our survey team for their cooperation in data collection and data entry. Special thanks to Mohammad Murtaza Yousufi for his hard work in ensuring the survey s success. I appreciate his accuracy and perseverance. Our survey team members were: Ahmadzia Muslimyar Matiullah Hemmat Zarifa Arezoo Shima Jafari Somayah Keshawarz Abdul Rashid Jamal Ewaz Akbari Taherah Hassani Masuod Khawari Mohammad Zidane Naveed Ahmad Alkozay

3 CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Introduction Methodology 3 Results 4 Conclusion 5 References

4 TABLES Table 1 Sampling frame1 Table 2 Sampling frame2 Table 3 Sampling frame for Kabul province Table 4 Sampling frame of four other provinces Table 5 Reasons for leaving the country according educational level Table 6 Reasons for leaving the country according to ethnic groups

5 FIGURES Figure 1 Marital statues Figure 2 Age of the Respondents Figure 3 ethnic ratio of the respondents Figure 4 Education level Figure 5 Employment Status Figure 6 Salary Amount Figure 7 Migration of Respondents Friends Figure 8 Migration of Respondents Family Members Figure 9 tendency to migration Figure 10 Destination of the potential immigrants Figure 11 Migration experience Figure 12 Reasons for Immigration Figure 13 If I stay in Afghanistan, I can obtain all I want Figure 14 If I stay in Afghanistan, I hope for better economy in the future Figure 15 If I stay in Afghanistan, there is no serious obstacle to progress Figure 16 If I stay in Afghanistan, I won t feel discriminated Figure 17 Patriotism among respondents Figure 18 Patriotism among surveyed provinces Figure 19 Ethnicity and willing to stay in the country Figure 20 Having immigrated friends and tendency to migrate

6 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The main purpose of this study is to understand the level of desire of educated and skilled Afghans to immigrate and to identify the fundamental causes of their desire to migrate. Methodology We used quantitative methodology for the implementation of this study. The data was collected through closed questionnaire. The target population of 5000 educated/skilled people was initially selected. The sampling strategy was multi-stage. The survey was conducted in Kabul and four large provinces: Herat, Kandahar, Nangrahar, and Balkh. Key Findings 53% of respondents have no desire to migration; while 27% desire to migrate. The remaining 20% of them selected the no idea option or did not answer this question. There is a close relationship between migration of friends/family members and the desire to migrate. We did not find a strong positive correlation between education level and the desire to migrate, which was generally low among skilled respondents; only 12.16% of university professors, as the lowest rate, tended to leave country. On the other side, the highest desire to migration observed between physicians 26.3%. The reasons for migration among those who desire to migrate vary. 10.1% of the respondents report economic issues; 11.7% report finding better opportunities; 17.2% report security issues; and 16.2% report seeking educational opportunities as the reason for their willingness to migrate. Unemployment is reported by only 4.6% of the respondents. 32.3% report an other reason to migrate. University student and respondents with a bachelor s degree are seeking more educational opportunities, while those with masters and doctoral degrees expressed that they want to migrate because of insecurity and to find better opportunities. More than half of the respondents (58%) have a positive attitude about the future of the country.

7 Page 2 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background According to a UNCHR, 2015 report, more than half (54%) of all refugees worldwide came from just three countries: the Syrian Arab Republic (4.9 million), Afghanistan (2.7 million), and Somalia (1.1 million) (UNCHR, 2015). Afghanistan held the world record for having the highest number of refugees for nearly 4 decades until the Syrian Crisis. According to the data compiled by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), on average, one out of every four refugees worldwide was an Afghan. The organization s report states that there were 2.6 million Afghan refugees in 2012 alone. Around 95 percent of them were said to be living in the neighbouring countries of Iran and Pakistan. Most of the remaining five percent were believed to have enough money to pay traffickers to take them to Europe or the United States (UNHCR 2012a, 2012b). In the last four decades, Afghans have experienced three waves of migration: (1) After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, many people left the country and primarily went to Pakistan and Iran; (2) The civil wars and the Taliban regime in 1990s caused an increased rate of Afghan immigrants, especially to Western countries (UNHCR, Afghan Refugee Statistics, 2005); (3) The third wave is ongoing. After 2001, many refugees came back to the country. According to UNHCR statistics, about 3.5 million refugees from Iran and Pakistan returned to the country. More than 3 million of them received assistance of UNHCR. But a new trend of immigration and asylum seeking started again. Since 2013, Afghanistan has provided the second largest group of refugees and immigrants to reach Western borders (UNCHR, 2014). A growing number of people have left the country in the last three years, yet there is a dearth of demographic information. The education level of those who have left is unknown. Yet we can extrapolate some of this information by researching the educated and skilled population remaining in Afghanistan and analysing their desire to migrate.

8 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 1.2 Conceptual framework The general trends of contemporary migrations are globalization, acceleration, differentiation, feminization, and politicization (Castles, Miller, 2003). Globalization means that the number of countries affected by migrations has been rising. Acceleration indicates that the international flows of people are growing in volume. Differentiation denotes that there is more than one type of migration between particular countries. For example, migration may be political or economic, permanent or temporary, etc. Feminization describes the observation that the share of women in all regions and in all types of migration has been rising. And politicization indicates that international migration increasingly affects domestic and international politics. (Castles, Miller, 2003). The main causes of migration increase are political, ecological and demographic pressures (Castles, Miller, 2003:4), conflicts and wars, the free market, and the globalization of labour. Most migrants from developing regions are low-skilled workers, but the migration of university-trained people is growing. Thousands of doctors, engineers, and nurses from less developed regions mainly Asian countries work in Europe, North America and Australia. This is a useful solution for skilled people who cannot find jobs in their countries, but on the other hand it leads to a shortage of professionals at home. In the Philippines, one of the main labour resource countries, hospitals have been closed due of the shortage of qualified personnel, a situation caused by migration to the UK. (Castles, Miller, 2003:171). The migration of highly educated people, of professionals, and especially its consequences for the sending country, is one of the most commonly discussed problems in international migration. The flow of skilled migrants educated human capital has been seen as damaging to the country that has invested in their education, particularly when this is a developing country. Since the 1950s this has been called brain drain. The expression was first used by the British Royal Society to describe the post-war outflow of scientists and technologists from Europe to North America ( The phrase brain drain suggests that the promotion of migration of educated people is a form of exploitation of poor countries by rich ones. There are also some new terms which have been popularized in the recent migration literature. Brain waste describes the situation where educated migrants earn less than equally educated natives, or when their work duties in the destination country are below their qualifications. There is an extreme case of brain waste, whereby an increase in education has no impact on income earned in the destination country (Ozden, Schiff, 2006:12). The brain gain expresses the beneficial brain drain (Ozden, Schiff, 2006:11), understood as the development of education in the sending country as a result of the higher salaries of educated migrants or as a return of human capital and all complementary investment from rich to poor

9 Page 4 countries (Kapur, McHale, 2005:X). Brain circulation illustrates a new phenomenon: the international brain exchanges, and refers instead to the flows of professionals between developed countries (Blitz, 2005; Teferra, 2005). To study the brain drain in Afghanistan, the term brain had to be defined, a difficult task. Who are the representatives of this idiom/term? Should we use it for very qualified individuals, as it is used in the advanced societies? For this study, we define the term according to the human capacity available in the country. So we define this term here as those educated/skilled peoples who are included in the below categories: School Students: Top 5 students in 10th grade to 12th grade at high school University Students and university graduates Highly skilled individuals that have a high position in state organization or have their own business: university professors, researchers, teachers, writers, journalists, engineers, physicians, entrepreneurs, businessmen/women, skilled workers, and high level civil servants (directorate and upper) 1.3 Research Objectives The objectives of this research are to: Identify demographic characteristics strongly correlated with immigration Analyse the desire to migrate among educated/skilled Afghan citizens Explore reasons for migration

10 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 Research Questions The research questions to be answered by this study are: 1. How prevalent is the desire to migrate among educated/skilled Afghan citizens? 2. What are the reasons for the desire to leave the country? a. Is there any causal relation between political instability and desire to leave the country? b. Is there any causal relation between economic issues and the desire to leave the country? c. Is there any causal correlation between better job opportunities and the desire to leave the country? d. Is there any causal relation between better education opportunities and the desire to leave the country? 2.2 Data Collection Method In this study, we have used quantitative and qualitative methodology to answer the research questions. We first performed a desk review, then we conducted quantitative data analysis. The data collection was performed with a tailored questionnaire. In the sampling, elements of ethnicity, literacy and income levels, professional activity, and experiences of migration were taken into account Questionnaire Design The questionnaire was informed by literature review and focus Group Discussion (FGD). At the beginning, the brain drain and migration literature was reviewed. According to the literature, we found the following were the main reasons for the immigration of skilled and educated people, so we considered these in the questionnaire: Educational level Immigration background Employment situation Attitude about the future in the country of origin Expectations of domestic and economic needs met in home country

11 Page 6 These five factors were discussed in in several Focus Group Discussions. Using these discussion results, the questionnaire was developed. The first draft of the questionnaire was shared with FGD members. Their comments were then considered in the revision of the questionnaire. We first conducted a pilot phase. In this step, 30 respondents were interviewed. Following this, the questionnaire was reviewed and its reliability was measured according to Cronbach s Alpha. To measure the attitude about staying in Afghanistan 10 questions were developed by the researcher. They were developed according to Likert scale. To know the reliability of questions there are different to tests to measure the reliability like Split_Half, Guttman and Cronbach s Alpha. In this research the questions reliability was tested by Cronbach s Alpha test. The result was s below: Reliability Statistics Cronbach s Alpha N of Items When the result of the Cronbach s Alpha is more than.60 it means that questions are reliable Unit of Study and Sampling The sample size was 5000, and the demographics included educated and skilled persons in 5 major provinces. The sampling strategy was a multistage sampling. This study utilized a three-stage sampling strategy. The first stage identified the provinces sampling Units for selection. Within the provinces sampling units, samples were selected. See below for more details on the process. A. Selection of the Provinces The five provinces of Kabul, Balkh, Herat, Kandahar and Nangarhar were selected because they are the main urban populated provinces and represent about one third of the population of Afghanistan. Also, they account for a geographical dispersion across the 5 main regions of the country, allowing for a greater representation of socio-demographic profiles, including ethnicity and language. In every province except Kabul, the target number of questionnaires was set at 875. The target number in Kabul province was set at 1500 due to its larger population and ethnic and linguistic diversity.

12 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens B. Selection of Respondent Categories in Each Province In the previous section of literature review, we defined the term brain drain as the migration of educated and skilled persons. The operational definition of this phrase in Afghanistan context is suggested as below: 1. Educated people are those with minimum 10 years of school. We have only considered 1st-5th position students. University students and graduates are also included in this category. We stratified educated samples into 2 main categories according to their level of education: High school students who have got 1st to 5th position in 10th to 12th grades. We focused on this demographic because many young people report a desire to migrate. University students and graduates in 3 majors (medical, engineering and humanities) from private and public universities, but mostly from public universities (about 65%). 2. Skilled peoples are defined as top significant job holders that have a high position and/or salary compared to other jobs in the society. This category includes job holders/practitioners as university professors, researchers, teachers, writers, journalists, engineers, physicians, entrepreneurs, businessmen/women, skilled workers, and high level civil servants (directorate and upper levels). As students get older, their desire to migrate increases, so we sampled more heavily in the older student populations.

13 Page 8 Table 1: sampling frame1 Categories Sub-categories Sample Size Sub total School students Top 5 students in 10th grade University students and graduates (public and private universities) Top 5 students in 11th grade 430 Top 5 in 12th grade 470 Medical doctor Engineering & computer science 550 Humanities 550 Top significant jobs University professors Researchers 204 Teachers 208 Writers 208 Journalists 224 Engineers 208 Physician 208 Entrepreneurs 208 Businessmen/women 208 Skilled workers 208 High level civil servants (directorate and upper) 208 Total

14 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens C. Distribution of sampling society according to gender and ethnicity According to the rate and migration probability of women, 20% of sample size is allocated to them. We have allocated 20% to each of the 4 largest ethnic groups (Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, and Uzbek) and the remaining 20% is to other ethnic minorities (see table2 below). Table 2: sampling frame2 Categories Sub-categories Sample Size School students University students and graduates (public and private universities) Top significant jobs Top 5 students in 10th grade Top 5 students in 11th grade Top 5 students in 12th grade Medical doctors Engineering & computer science Gender ratio Ethnicity ratio Female Male Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others Humanities University professors Researchers Teachers Writers Journalists Engineers Physician Entrepreneurs Businessmen/ women Skilled workers High level civil servants Total

15 Page 10 Table 3: sampling frame for Kabul province Categories Sub-categories Sample Size School students University students and graduates (public and private universities) Top significant jobs Top 5 students in 10th grade Top 5 students in 11th grade Top 5 students in 12th grade Medical doctors Engineering & computer science Gender ratio Ethnicity ratio Female Male Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others Humanities University professors Researchers Teachers Writers Journalists Engineers Physician Entrepreneurs Businessmen/ women Skilled workers High level civil servants Total

16 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens Table 4: sampling frame of four other provinces Categories Sub-categories Sample Size School students University students and graduates (public and private universities) Top significant jobs Top 5 students in 10th grade Top 5 students in 11th grade Top 5 students in 12th grade Medical doctors Engineering & computer science Gender ratio Ethnicity ratio Female Male Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others Humanities University professors Researchers Teachers Writers Journalists Engineers Physician Entrepreneurs Businessmen/ women Skilled workers High level civil servants Total

17 Page Selection and Training of the Survey Team The survey team consisted of 12 surveyors. The interviewers were selected from the five regions targeted in this survey. In order to ensure the quality of the survey, a three day training session, including the pilot, was conducted for the survey team. The 3-day training took place in February It included: 1. Review of the methodology and questionnaire (one day) 2. Pilot test in Kabul (one day) 3. Feedback of the lessons learned and planning for the actual survey (one day) Before training, all the surveyors received the manuals that consisted of the explanations of the project and a guide on how to approach respondents. 2.4 Data Collection The data collection was conducted with written surveys in the 5 selected provinces. The questionnaire was prepared in both the official languages (Pashto and Dari) and surveys were conducted in the native language of the respondent. Supervisors were trained to monitor the quality of data collection by having a daily check. Also, a quality control table was added at the end of the questionnaire. All surveyors were asked to check filled questionnaires immediately after a respondent finished his/her own questionnaire to ensure that no question was missed. All surveyors were requested to fill a quality control table at the end of each questionnaire. 2.5 Data Analysis The questionnaires were returned to the SDFO office in Kabul after collection. In Kabul, a trained team entered the data into an SPSS database. To check the data accuracy, the database was then checked and cleaned by the project s senior researcher. The statistical data was analysed by the SPSS. 2.6 Limitations We faced several limitations during the research process. Some notable problems are as follows: 1. It was hard to reach some categories of respondents in some provinces. Therefore, the interviewed samples for those groups are fewer than were planned. 2. Some of the interviewees were not willing to answer certain questions, such as their salary amount or ethnicity. 3. As recruitment of female surveyors was challenging in conservative parts of Afghanistan, surveying women was too very challenging for male surveyors. But our surveyors have been reached their target.

18 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 3 RESULTS In this section, research results are discussed. At first, respondents backgrounds are introduced. Research findings according to survey objectives and research questions are discussed in the second part of this section. 33% 13% 0% 1% 53% 3.1 Gender and Marital Status of the Respondents 79.1% of respondents were male and 20.9% of them were female. Our target for gender ratio was 80/20. Concerning the marital status of the respondents, 53% were single, 13% were engaged, and 33% were married. Only 0.4% of were divorced and 0.6% of them were widow/er (figure1). Single Engaged Married Divorced Widow Figure 1: Marital Status of Respondents 3% 3.2 Age of the Respondents In this survey, respondents between ages 20 and 35 were categorized as young. They form 65% of our respondents. 23% of respondents are between 15 and 19 years old. We named this age category teenagers. 8.9% were adult (36-45 years old), and the remaining 3.4 % were old (46 years old and above). 9% 23% 65% Teenager Young Adult Old Figure 2: Age of the Respondents

19 Page Ethnicity Ratio In order to consider the viewpoints of the entire country, all major ethnic groups were interviewed. Based on the ethnicity groups and their access, the data couldn t be collected based on the predefined sampling quantity. 35% of respondent were Pashtun, 21% were Tajik, 18% were Hazara, 8.4 were Uzbek, and the remaining 17.1% consisted of other ethnic groups. 8.4% 18.4% 17.1% 21% 35% Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others % % % % % % 500.0% 0.0% 31.2% 21.6% 15.1% 7.1% 9.0% % 1.5% 1.6%.9% Figure 4: Education Level 3.4 Education Level 21.6% of the respondents are university graduates, 31.2 % are current university students, and 6% are 14th grade students. The sample also included respondents with high school education (34.3%), illiterate or primary literate (those who have studied until 6th grade) (3.1%), and respondents with master or PhD degrees (6.7%). Among the university students and graduates, 20.9% are studying/have studied medical sciences, 28.2% engineering and computer science, and the remaining 48.9% are studying/ have studied the humanities. Of current and previous university student respondents, 63% are studying/have studied in public universities and 35.3% in private universities. 1.7% did not answer this question.

20 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 20% 40% 40% 3.5 Employment Status 40.4% of respondents were unemployed, 39.8% had permanent jobs, and 19.7% had a part-time job. Among employed respondents, 32% were in the public sector, 35.4% were in the private sector (including NGOs), and 26% were self-employed. Jobless Full-time Job Part-time Job Figure 5: Employment Status 3.6 Salary Amount More than 40% of the respondents have incomes of $0 to $50 USD per month. This is largely because many of our respondents are students who do not have a job (55.8%) and thus, have no salary; 44.2% of all unemployed respondents were university students. 28.9% have an income of $101 to $250, and only 5.5% earn more than $500 per month. Figure 6: Salary Amount

21 Page How many of your friends have migrated? Only 14.9% of respondents said that none of their friends have migrated. 60.7% reported between 1 and 10 friends have migrated abroad. The remaining 24.4% reported more than 10 friends have migrated. When asked about migration of the respondents family members, results were similar. As shown in Figure 8, 21% of the respondents stated that none of their family members have migrated. 54.9% of respondents said that 1 to 10 of their family members have migrated. Figure 7: Migration of Respondents Friends Figure 8: Migration of Respondents Family Members

22 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 3.8 How much are you interested in migrating? The respondents reaction to question about their desire to migrate was surprising. More than half (53%) did not show any inclination to migrate. Only 21.2% showed much and very much interest in migration. Kandahar residents were more interested in migrating (36%), than the other four provinces: Kabul 28.2%, Herat 27.1%, Balkh 18.4%, and Nangrahar 25.1%. Much 9% Rather Much 5% Few 8% Very Much 13% Very Few 12% Not at all 53% Figure 9: Desire to migrate 3.9 Destination of the potential migrants Those interested in immigration indicated a variety of ideal destination. More than eighty countries were selected as the migration destinations by the respondents. Among those countries, the below destinations were most frequently selected by respondents: USA (6.6%), Germany (6.4%), Turkey (5.4%), Canada (5.2%), Australia (3.2%), UK (2.5%), and Iran (2.35%). Figure 10: Destination of the potential immigrants

23 Page % 36.8% 3.10 Have you ever migrated? 63.2% of the respondents said that they have never migrated. 36.8% reported that they had migrated, indicating more than 50 destination countries, but most have been to Iran (14.4%) and Pakistan (17.9%). Yes No Figure 11: Migration experience 3.11 Reasons for leaving the country The respondents gave various reasons for migration. 10.1% mentioned economic issues ; 11.7% pointed to finding better opportunities, such as homes, welfare, and healthcare, and 18.2% pointed to security issues as their reason for migration. 16.2% were seeking more educational opportunities. Only 4.6% reported unemployment as a reason for their desire to migrate. 5.5% pointed to political instability, and 33.7% selected others option as their reason to migrate % % 16.2% T 10.1T 11.7% 4.6% 0.0 Political Instability Economic Issues To Seek Opportunities Security Issues More Educational Opportunities Unemployment Other Figure 12: Reasons for Immigration

24 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens A large number of illiterate (44.1%) and primary school educated respondents (20%) gave no reason for migration. 20.6% of illiterate and 24.4% of primary educated respondents stated insecurity as their reason for migration. Economic issues and insecurity were pointed to by high school students. A large number of 14th grade students (18.3%) also pointed to economic issues as their reason. University student and graduates most commonly chose educational opportunities as their reason. 24% of those with masters and doctoral degrees reported that they want to migrate because of insecurity and to find better opportunities. As bellow table shows, eight options had been considered for this question, including an option Others. A large number of respondents from different educational levels had chosen this option, suggesting that there were more other reasons for respondent s to have desire to migration. Table 5: Reasons for leaving the country according educational level Reason of leaving the country Education level no response political instability economic issues to find more opportunities security issues more educational opportunities unemployment others Total Illiteracy 44.1% 2.9% 8.8% 5.9% 20.6% 17.6% 100.0% primary education 20.0% 4.4% 4.4% 8.9% 24.4% 15.6% 22.2% 100.0% 10th grade students.6% 5.4% 12.0% 10.8% 21.1% 24.1% 5.4% 19.9% 100.0% 11th grade students.4% 10.1% 14.1% 9.7% 20.7% 15.0% 6.2% 23.8% 100.0% 12th grade student 2.9% 3.4% 21.5% 8.0% 17.2% 14.3% 7.2% 25.5% 100.0% 14th grade student 3.3% 3.3% 11.1% 14.4% 18.3% 9.2% 3.9% 36.6% 100.0% University student.1% 5.2% 11.1% 14.5% 15.1% 19.1% 6.8% 28.2% 100.0% University graduate 9.1% 8.5% 15.1% 15.9% 13.7% 2.3% 35.4% 100.0% Master degree 7.4% 8.5% 12.8% 21.3% 10.6% 39.4% 100.0% PhD 4.0% 4.0% 16.0% 24.0% 24.0% 28.0% 100.0%

25 Page 20 Ethnicity was an important factor in determining reasons for migrating. Security issues is the main reason for Pashtun respondents (29.2%) and Hazara respondents (29.9%). Also a significant number of Tajik (26.7%) and Hazara respondents (28.1%) stated that they leave the country to find better opportunities. Table 6: Reasons for leaving the country according to ethnic groups Ethnic group Reason of leaving the country Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others Total political instability 27.0% 25.5% 18.4% 9.2% 19.9% 100.0% economic issues 31.4% 24.0% 19.4% 8.8% 16.3% 100.0% to find more Opportunities 19.1% 26.7% 28.1% 10.4% 15.6% 100.0% security issues 29.2% 18.0% 29.9% 6.5% 16.5% 100.0% more educational opportunities 25.4% 19.2% 25.1% 10.7% 19.7% 100.0% unemployment 21.5% 23.1% 25.6% 10.7% 18.2% 100.0% others 46.1% 16.2% 15.8% 4.5% 17.4% 100.0% 3.12 Perceptions of Opportunities for those Remaining in Afghanistan A series of questions were asked to measure respondents attitudes toward their potential future in the country. The responses were promising. 52.4% of respondents believe that they can achieve their ambitions. 42% are hopeful for their economic future. Also, 42% felt no serious obstacle to progress. 10.6% 15.6% 19.2% 36.8% 17.8% Fully Disagree Disagree No Idea Agree Fully Disagree Figure 13: If I stay in Afghanistan, I can obtain all I want

26 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens Agree 38% Fully Disagree 16% Fully Disagree 8% Disagree 18% No Idea 20% Questions geared to respondents attitudes towards staying in Afghanistan showed that 44% were hopeful for their economic future (completely agree or agree), while 26% completely disagree or disagree. 20% did not have any idea. Figure 14: If I stay in Afghanistan, I hope for better economy in the future 13% 11% 38% of respondents see serious obstacles to their own progress by staying in Afghanistan, while 42% of them, do not see such an obstacle. 20% have no idea. 29% 20% 27% Fully Disagree Disagree No Idea Agree Fully Disagree Figure 15: If I stay in Afghanistan, there is no serious obstacle to progress

27 Page 22 17% 16% One question asked if the respondent felt they would be discriminated against if they stayed in the country. 43% of respondents felt no discrimination, 39% reported that if they stay in Afghanistan, they will feel such a discrimination. 18% had no idea. 26% 18% 23% Fully Disagree No Idea Disagree Agree Fully Disagree Figure 16: If I stay in Afghanistan, I won t feel discriminated 3.13 I like Afghanistan and people of my country 93.7% of respondents reported that they like Afghanistan. 3.5% of them have no idea. Only 2.8% did not like their country. Figure 17: Patriotism among respondents

28 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 3.14 Patriotism among Surveyed Provinces One of the questions asked people to give their opinion on this statement: I love Afghanistan. As shown in the chart below, the percentage of citizens agreeing with this statement varies among the surveyed provinces. In Kabul, 70.9% completely agree, 23.7% agree. The result was similar in Nangarhar, yet different in Herat (where 58.5% fully agree and 28% agree). Figure 18: Patriotism among surveyed provinces 3.15 Ethnicity and desire to stay in the country As is shown in the chart below, the desire based on different ethnicity, overall it s the same with very less difference., ethnicity is not an important factor in wanting to stay in the country. Figure 19: Ethnicity and willing to stay in the country

29 Page Having immigrated friends and desire to migrate Figure 20: Having immigrated friends and desire to migrate As shown below, there is a close correlation between migration of friends and the desire to migrate. As the number of migrated friends rises, the desire to migrate increases. 38.2% of those with no immigrant friends are willing to leave the country. Among those had 1-10 friends immigrated, 47.3% are interested in migrating. The interest for those with migrated friends, was 55.8%, and for those with migrated friends was 56.5%. Finally, 57% of them with more than 31 migrated friends have a desire to migrate.

30 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 4 CONCLUSION The objectives of this research were to identify demographic characteristics that have strong positive relationships with the desire to immigrate, analyse the desire to migrate educated/skilled Afghan citizens, and to explore their reasons for wanting to leave the country. To obtain these objectives, we interviewed a sample of 5,000 people across the five most populated provinces: The research questions to be answered by this study are: 1. How is desire to immigration among educated/skilled Afghans? 2. What are the reasons of their desire for leaving the country? Important findings and results are: 53% of the respondents have no desire to immigrate, while 27% do. The remaining 20% of them, selected no idea or did not answer this question. Those wanting to immigrate listed more than 80 countries to move to. The most frequently mentioned destinations for migration are: USA (6.6%), Germany (6.4%), Turkey (5.4%), Canada (5.2%), Australia (3.2%), UK (2.5%), and Iran (2.35%). 60.7% of respondents have between 1-10 immigrant friends. There is a close relationship between migration of friends and higher desire to migrate. Only 38.2% with no migrant friends want to migrate, while this percentage is 57% among respondents with migrant friends. There is no significant relationship between education level and the desire to migrate. Illiterate and low educated respondents were slightly more inclined to migrate than those with high education levels. The reasons stated for migration are different. Seeking better educational opportunities (16.2%), security problems (17.2%), finding better opportunities (11.7%), economic problems (10.1%), and unemployment (4.6%) were the most commonly cited reasons. 32.3% of the respondents selected other as the reason for migration. About 20.6% of illiterate and 24.4% of primary educated respondents cited insecurity as a more pointed reason for migration. Economic issues and insecurity were pointed to by high school students. University student and graduates want to migrate to seek more educational opportunities. Those with masters and doctoral degrees expressed that they want to migrate because of insecurity and to find better opportunities.

31 Page 26 In answer to the question regarding staying in Afghanistan and building a better life, 52.4% of the respondents believe they can achieve their ambitions. 42% are hopeful about their economic future, and 42% felt no serious obstacle to progress. More than half of the respondents (58%) have positive attitudes about the future of the country. They reported that if they stay in Afghanistan, they can obtain what they want; enjoy their life; and feel free in what they are doing. They are hopeful about their future employment. They also think that their abilities will not be ignored.

32 Skilled Migration The Perspective of Educated and Skilful Afghan Citizens 5 REFERENCES 1. Castles S., Miller M.J., (2003), The Age of Migration, 3rd ed.,, New York and London: The Guilford Press Özden C., Shiff M., (ed.) (2006), International Migration, Remittances & The Brain Drain, Washington DC: The World Bank & Palgrave Macmillan. 4. Kapur D., McHale J., (2005), Give Us Your Best And Brightest. The Global Hunt for talent and Its Impact on the Developing World, Washington DC: Center for Global Development. 5. Blitz B.K., (2005), Brain circulation : the Spanish medical profession and international medical recruitment in the United Kingdom, in: Journal of European Social Policy 2005; 15; 363, 6. Teferra D., (2005), Brain Circulation: Unparalleled Opportunities, Underlying Challenges, and Outmoded Presumptions, in: Journal of Studies in International Education 2005; 9; 229, 7. Modaqeq, A. Zaher (2015), Tendency to immigrate among Kabul year citizens, Kabul Afghanistan. 8. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2012a) United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR),2015