Risk Mapping Sudan. Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid. January 2012 Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs

Transcription

1 Risk Mapping Sudan Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid January 2012 Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs

2 Table of Contents Fast Facts 3 HAZARDS 3 Conflicts 3 Darfur crisis 3 Unresolved border issues 3 South Kordofan 4 Abyei 4 Blue Nile 4 Natural Hazards 4 Droughts and drought-related conflicts 4 Environmental degradation and climate change 4 Floods 5 Epidemics 5 Locusts 5 VULNERABILITY 5 Indicators 5 CAPACITY 6 Government 6 Civil society 6 Cordaid partners 6 International cooperation 7 SYNTHESIS 8 Resources & contacts 8 Appendix: hazard map Sudan 2

3 Republic of Sudan Fast Facts 1 Capital: Khartoum Population: > 30 mln (est., excl. South Sudan) Population Density: n.a. Administrative regions: 15 states/wilayat, 133 districts. Some regional administrative bodies established by peace agreements Major ethnic groups: Sudanese Arabs, Nubians, Coptic Major religion: Islam Official languages: Arabic, English Climate: arid in north, more tropical towards south Main rain: July-Sept, dry winds: Jan-March Pop. Affected by natural disasters (average/year/mln people): World Risk Index: 48 (173) Cordaid sectors: CT, DRR, H&W, Entrepreneurship Hazards Conflicts Sudan has known a long history of violent civil conflicts. In several parts of the country conflicts continue until today. Religion, ethnicity, tribal origin, and access to natural resources have been important drivers of conflicts. Coupled to natural hazards of floods and droughts, the humanitarian situation in many areas continues to be complex and concerning. 2 Darfur crisis The current humanitarian situation in Darfur is rooted in long-standing conflicts between the predominantly nomadic Arabs and sedentary farming communities over land access. In times of famines, such conflicts tend to intensify. In 2003 the fighting turned into a more intense conflict between on the one hand, the government forces (SAF), supported by Arab Janjaweed militias and on the other side rebels of the Sudan Liberation Army/Movement (SLA/M), later splitting up in different factions of which SLA/Minni Minawi s faction was the most important) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). 3 Despite various rounds of peace negotiations and tentative peace agreements signed, fighting and insecurity remain. In 2011, this was so especially in the regions of Khor Abeche, the Jebel Marra area and Shangil Tobay. As a result of the unrest, about 1,9 million people live displaced in Darfur, the majority in IDP camps such as Zamzam. 4 Unresolved border issues One of the contentious issues in the Common Peace Agreement between North and South Sudan is the demarcation of the border. Clashes between SAF and SPLA forces continue to constitute a serious threat to stability, especially in South Kordofan, Abyei, and Blue Nile. 5 1 Based on viewed on Most data available on Sudan still include South Sudan. 2 International Crisis Group, December Sudan Conflict History, viewed on International Crisis Group, December Sudan Conflict History, BBC Q&A: Sudan s Darfur Conflict, and viewed on , 4 UN, Sudan: UN and Partners Work Plan 2011: Mid Year Review, p.12 viewed on Ibid. 3

4 South Kordofan Armed clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Sudan People s Liberation Army-North broke out around Kadugli in South Kordofan in June As this is the lean season, people were especially vulnerable. About 200 thousand people got displaced or severely affected, many fled to Kadugli. 6 Abyei Abyei, in Southern Kordofan, is a disputed area with serious conflict potential. Abyei s status was one of the most contentious topics in the negotiations of the Common Peace Agreement between Sudan and South Sudan. Under pressure of the US, Sudan agreed on holding a referendum to decide under which regime it would fall after South Sudan s independence. By now, the referendum has been withheld indefinitely and the area has special administrative status, its population being considered as citizens of Southern Kordofan State and Northern Bahr-el-Ghazal simultaneously. In May 2011 clashes were report between the armies of North and South, after which the Armed Forces of Sudan eventually took control, an estimated people fled the area. From July 2011 onwards, a UN peacekeeping mission (United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei) is stationed in the area. 7 Blue Nile In September 2011 new fighting broke out between government and different militia. Over people got displaced or severely affected in the regions of Kurmuk and Damazine. 8 Natural Hazards Droughts and drought-related conflicts Drought is a recurrent hazard in large parts of Sudan (apart from the Greenbelt), especially when occurring between June and September. North-Kordofan, North Darfur and the Red Sea Hills suffer most chronically from drought. Major droughts and related periods of food insecurity have occured 1991, 1987 and Tensions between pastoral nomads and sedentary farmers tend to increase in periods of drought as they compete over limited resources such as water and grazing/farming land. 10 Environmental degradation and climate change Together with rapid population increase, the number of livestock has increased rapidly in Sudan. At the same time, sedentary farming has become more recurrent, also in areas which are not optimal for agriculture. This all adds to soil depletion, deforestation, erosion and increased competition over natural resources. 11 Climate change has a further adverse influence and has been depicted as one of the underlying causes of many of the conflicts in Sudan Ibid, p International Crisis Group, Sudan: Abyei at a dangerous tipping point, and viewed on viewed on WFP Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch, Seasonal and hazards calendar, p Ali, Ibrahim M.M., Marginalization of pastoral nomads in Blue Nile State, Sudan, oral presentation at Anthropological Workshop, Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology, Halle, Germany, Ibid. See also UNEP, Sudan: Post-conflict environmental assessment, viewed on on UNEP,

5 Floods Rain-induced river floods, just like droughts are recurrent events in riverine areas, such as areas along the Nile and Gash rivers. Khartoum and Kassala are two major cities that have been affected in the past by floods. 13 Epidemics In the complex humanitarian situation that characterizes many parts of Sudan, an outbreak of a disease can rapidly turn into an epidemic and affect many people. Over the last years, Sudan has experienced outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever, cholera, and yellow fever. 14 Locusts Locust plagues incidentally occur in the North, West and East of Sudan. Plagues are more likely when rains are abundant. A major outbreak occurred in 2007 in the North East and coastal plains along the Red Sea. 15 Vulnerability Indicators 16 Human Development Index (out of 187) GDP per capita (USD) Living below 1,25 (USD) a day (% pop) Life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) n.a Adult literacy rate (% aged >15) Mean years of schooling (of adults) Gender inequality index Global hunger index (>20 alarming) Corruption perceptions index (10 = clean) Levels of development in Sudan although variable are generally low. In regards to the humanitarian situation, a recent UN report indicatively referred to chronic vulnerabilities that have beset the country over the last decades. 17 Poverty is most severe in rural areas in Sudan. People who live on rain fed agriculture are particularly affected due to: unpredictable rainfall patterns; water shortages during the dry season; barriers on migration routes leading to disputes; cattle raiding. 18 In areas where conflicts are most intense, vulnerability is generally highest, for both the settled people and for the IDP s. These regions include Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile. 19 Often, also the settled population flees its homestead at night to find safety and shelter in the bush. 20 Until the secession of South Sudan, pastoralists have always freely moved from North to South Sudan. Negotiations are ongoing about the legal status and the requirement of a passport for these people. This 13 WFP Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch, Seasonal and hazards calendar, p viewed on viewed on For monitoring of current situation, see 16 Based on UNDP, Sudan Country Profile: Human Development Indicators, viewed on and and viewed on UN, Sudan: UN and Partners Work Plan 2011: Mid Year Review, p.16 viewed on FAO, Rural poverty in the Sudan, viewed on viewed on IRINNews, Zouhal Iead, I go to Ethiopia to sleep then come back to Kurmuk, viewed on

6 might lead to further vulnerability. 21 Yet, as long as borders are not clearly demarcated, transborder movement will be hindered more by armed forces in the area than by the lack of a passport. 22 Christians are also a vulnerable group. At the split-off of South Sudan, Sudan s president Bashir announced the new constitution of Northern Sudan would be entirely Islamic; the majority belief in the North. 23 He repeated this claim in October Future will reveal whether sharia law will prejudice the Christian minority in North Sudan Capacity Government The Northern Sudanese state has limited capacity and is facing many challenges. 24 A major challenge is to establish and maintain a stable relationship with South Sudan. Since 1991 Sudan has a Council for Civil Defence which acts as a coordinating body for disasters and natural calamities. Coordination mechanisms at state and county levels still have to be developed. A National Platform has not been established due to a lack of financial means. 25 With the secession of South Sudan, financial means might further decrease, as oil revenues might reduce. 26 Civil society The Sudanese civil society is generally characterized as weak. Despite significant support from donor countries, not so much has been achieved on a local level in terms of capacity building, also because many partners prioritise direct relief over capacity building and local empowerment. 27 Cordaid partners Sector: Conflict Transformation Name and kind of Geo location Core business Strategy turnover staff org. Radio Abyei (FPU) Abyei, South Radio broadcasting NGO Kordofan and Blue Nile Asmaa Khartoum Women Service delivery >500,000 >50 empowerment IDCS Khartoum Constitution Lobby/advocacy Salmmah Women s Resource Centre (SWRC) Khartoum awareness-raising Women empowerment SuWEP Khartoum Women in peace building KACE Khartoum Democracy and governance Capacity building, lobby Lobby/Advocacy Lobby, advocacy >500, UN, Sudan: UN and Partners Work Plan 2011: Mid Year Review, p.21 viewed on Ali, Ibrahim M.M., Marginalization of pastoral nomads in Blue Nile State, Sudan, oral presentation at Anthropological Workshop, Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology, Halle, Germany, The Guardian, Omar al-bashir: northern Sudan will adopt sharia law if counry splits, viewed on UNISDR Regional Office for Africa, Inventory of national coordination mechanisms, legal frameworks and national plans for disaster risk reduction in Africa. 25 Ibid. 26 IPS, , Oil conflict threatens to break out, on IIRR, Community managed disaster risk reduction (CMDRR) TOT Training for Cordaid partners in Sudan- Report. 6

7 International cooperation In 2008, the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for arrest of Sudan s president al-bashir for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur. 28 In a response, the Sudanese Government ordered the expulsion of a number of ingos from the country, affecting the provision of humanitarian assistance especially in Darfur. 29 The cluster approach in place in Sudan is as follows: 30 Sector Government Lead Lead Agency (international actors) Basic Infrastructure and North: Ministry of Physical Planning and Public UNOPS Settlement Development (BI) Utilities, Ministry of Transport South: Ministry of Housing, Lands and Public Utilities, Ministry of Transport and Roads Education and Culture (E) North: Federal Ministry of General Education UNOPS South: Ministry of Education, Science and Technology Health and Nutrition (HN) North: Ministry of Health South: Ministry of Health WHO/UNICEF Water and Sanitation (WS) North: Public Water Corporation under the UNICEF Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources South: Ministry of Rural Development and Cooperatives Food Security and Livelihoods (FSL) Protection and Human Rights (PHR) Mine Action (MA) Common Services and Coordination (CCS) Non-Food Items and Emergency Shelter (NS) Cross-Sector Support for Return and Reintegration (RR) Camp Coordination and Camp Management Cluster North: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry South: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry North: National Council for Child Welfare, UN- Government Committee on Children and Armed Conflict, Humanitarian Affairs Commission, Commissioner for Refugees South: SSRRC, Ministry of Gender, Social Welfare and Religious Affairs, SPLA, SSDDRC/SPLA North: National Mine Action Authority South: Southern Sudan Demining Commission North: Humanitarian Affairs Commission, Ministry of International Cooperation South: Southern Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission, Ministry of Regional Cooperation North: Humanitarian Affairs Commission South: SRRC North: Humanitarian Affairs Commission South: SRRC FAO/WFP UNMIS POC/ UNHCR UNMAS OCHA/RCSO UNJLC UNMIS RRR UNHCR 28 ICC, , viewed on Reliefweb, , Sudan expels aid agencies after ICC warrant, viewed on viewed on

8 Synthesis A number of different conflicts continue to constitute a threat for Sudan. Consequences of climate change might aggravate conflicts in the future. The following points illustrate the main risks in this country based on hazards, vulnerability (as population exposed) and history. - Major conflicts, causing large-scale displacement (of several millions of people) are in Darfur, Abyei, South Kordofan, Blue Nile and in the North-South border region in general. - Droughts (June-September) and floods are recurrent in Sudan. With increasing numbers of livestock, and shifts towards sedentary farming, consequences of drought will be more strongly felt. Exposure today is relatively low. Resources & contacts (in Arabic) (on Darfur) Bernadette Hermans (PO ER/EP, Cordaid HQ): bernadette.hermans@cordaid.nl, Jeroen de Zeeuw (PO CT, Cordaid HQ): jeroen.de.zeeuw@cordaid.nl, Ilse Simma (Coordinator, Caritas Coordination Unit): ci.sudan.coord@gmail.com, John Ashworth (Sudan expert, freelance consultant) : ashworth.john@gmail.com;