Risk Mapping Ethiopia

Transcription

1 Risk Mapping Ethiopia Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid January 2012 Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs

2 Table of Contents HAZARDS 3 Natural Hazards 3 Droughts 3 Floods 3 Conflicts 4 Eritrea 4 Somalia 4 Ogaden 4 Epidemics and other poverty-related health problems 4 Livestock diseases 4 Locusts 4 VULNERABILITY 5 Indicators 5 CAPACITY 5 Government 5 Civil society and local capacity 5 Current Cordaid Partners 6 Caritas Network 6 International Coordination 6 SYNTHESIS 7 Resources and contacts 7 Appendix: hazard map Ethiopia 2

3 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Fast Facts 1 Capital: Addis Abeba Population: 82.1 mln (est.) Population Density: 74 people/sq.km Administrative regions: 9 ethnically based countries (kililoch), 68 zones, 550 woredas Major ethnic groups: Oromo, Amhara, Somali, Tigray, Sidama Major religion: Christianity (about 2/3), Islam National languages: English, Amharic, Oromo, Tigrinya, Somali Climate: tropical monsoon, but with local variations, highlands much cooler Pop. Affected by natural disasters (average/year/mln people): World Risk Index: 60 Cordaid sectors: CT, DRR, H&W Hazards Natural hazards in Ethiopia are strongly related to climate change and have a great impact on the food security of large part of the population. Natural Hazards Droughts Drought is recurrent throughout Ethiopia. Especially in the southern and eastern parts it often hits millions of people. Oromoiya, SNNPR, Somali and Afar are regions where predominantly pastoralists may be affected by the drought. 2 More than 11% of the population is exposed to droughts. That is nearly 10 million people. 3 Usually, the pastoral dry season falls in January-February, but droughts have occurred between January to September 4 With climate change droughts tend to become more prolonged. 5 In Amhara and Tigray regions droughts affect mainly agriculturalists. 6 Floods Floods are even more frequent than droughts in Ethiopia, yet they tend to affect much less people and are less prolonged in time. Major floods causing loss of life and property occurred in 1988, and Nationwide, there is flood risk from March-November, but since local climates can vary greatly, incidents of flooding also vary in time and space. 8 Ironically, the risk of flooding often increases after long periods of drought, when the soil has limited absorption capacity. The South Omo and Wabe Shebele rivers are most prone to flooding. Dire Dawa is Ethiopia s second largest city which has known a number of major floods in history. Disaster preparedness however seems to be improving and an unexpected flood in April 2010 did not cause any fatalities. 9 1 Based on viewed on Cordaid, Ethiopia Context Analysis- Disaster Risk and Climate Change. 3 PreventionWeb (2011). Ethiopia. viewed on WFP Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch, Seasonal and Hazards Calendar, p National Metereological Agency Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia. 6 Cordaid, Ethiopia Context Analysis- Disaster Risk and Climate Change. 7 National Metereological Agency Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia, p.5. 8 WFP Emergency Preparedness and Response Branch, Seasonal and Hazards Calendar, p viewed on

4 Conflicts Eritrea After a referendum in 1993 Eritrea became independent. Demarcation of the border appeared to be problematic and turned into a military conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea in the 90s. During the conflict tens of thousands people were killed. Continuing tensions might threaten stability. 10 A UN-mission was charged with maintaining peace in the border region from Somalia The relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia has often been tense throughout history. With the ongoing conflict in Somalia, there continues to be potential of spread of the conflict into/with Ethiopia. Invasion of Somalia by Ethiopian forces in 2006 gave rise to further insurgency and aggravated the situation. The invasion had been instigated by Ethiopia s concern of further spread of fundamentalist Islam. 12 As long as the conflict in Somalia continues, conflict potential seems to remain for Ethiopia. Ogaden The Ogaden territory in the southwest of the Somali province is an area which has strong links with Somalia. The Ogaden National Liberation Front is a rebel group striving against the Ethiopian government and for independence. The ONLF and the Ethiopian Government have often accused each other for using violence. The region has a long history of unrest which is unlikely to change. Due to the remoteness of the area, the conflict receives little international attention. 13 Epidemics and other poverty-related health problems Various epidemics continue to constitute real threats to people s lives. Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) often appears in periods of flooding when proper sanitary conditions are not met. Ethiopia is located in the meningitis belt, with epidemics often occurring in seasonal cycles, but usually declining with the onset of the rainy season. Especially SNNPR and Oromiya have been severely affected in the past, but also Amhara, Gambella and Tigray. 14 Livestock diseases Rift Valley Fever, Tsetse and Trypanosomosis are threatening to livestock, yet generally well-controlled. 15 Sudden outbreaks of diseases however can have a great impact on the livelihoods of the population. Locusts Incidentally, invasions of locusts occur in Ethiopia. Breeding is well-controlled within Ethiopia, but migrating swarms from neighbouring countries such as Somalia constitute a hazard for the agricultural production in the country viewed on viewed on viewed on viewed on viewed on viewed on IRIN, Ethiopia: Locust threat in northwest, viewed on

5 Vulnerability Indicators 17 Human Development Index (out of 187) GDP per capita (USD) Living below 1,25 (USD) a day (% pop) Life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) Gini coefficient Adult literacy rate (% aged >15) Mean years of schooling (of adults) Gender inequality index Global hunger index (>20 alarming) Corruption perceptions index (10 = clean) n.a Ethiopia s population lives predominantly in rural areas (83.2%) 18, with the majority of the people living on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism. As a result, livelihoods of most people are strongly affected during periods of drought. Ongoing climate change might greatly impact on the occurrence and severity of hazards and increase people s vulnerability. 19 Over the past 55 years, average temperature in Ethiopia has risen by about 0.37 C every ten years. Average nationwide rainfall has remained more or less the same. 20 Capacity Government Ethiopia has a Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Center (DPPC). There is strong awareness among the government of the importance of disaster prevention. In the 2009 government statement at the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, it was stated that: the Government of Ethiopia employed the Business Process Re engineering (BPR) and took decisive steps to transform its disaster management system from a traditionally reactive and relief oriented system to a proactive, disaster risk reduction and management focused system. 21 In line with this, government has chosen a more people-centred, decentralised approach with a multihazard and multi-sector focus. 22 A national policy for DRR is being prepared. Management committees have been set up on woreda/district level in which government and NGOs unite to work on Disaster Risk Management and Food Security (DRMFS). Capacity of these committees varies greatly between districts. There is strong government control on activities of NGOs. 23 Civil society and local capacity Local capacity and resilience of pastoralists and small-scale farmers in Ethiopia has often been lauded for being well-adapted to seasonal weather changes. A report commissioned by USAID stated that: 17 UNDP Ethiopia Country Profile: Human Development Indicators, viewed on and and viewed on UNDP Ethiopia Country Profile: Human Development Indicators, viewed on Official statement of the Ethiopian delegation to the second session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, National Metereological Agency Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia. 21 Official statement of the Ethiopian delegation to the second session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, Ibid. 23 Based on information provided by Gijs Aarts,

6 Due to the recurrent nature of crisis, Ethiopian livelihood systems have evolved to manage diverse disaster hazards, e.g. the migration patterns of pastoralists are designed to optimally manage the impact of drought on pasture and water resources; farmers seek to mitigate covariate risks through diversifying their cropping patterns; families strategically use family members to combine production with wage labour, etc. 24 There seems to be awareness among civil society organisations of the value of such community-based approaches, which is also shown by Cordaid s CMDRR programmes. Capacity of civil society varies greatly, but is often overstretched as Ethiopia is one of the donor darlings that receives ample international assistance. Formally, international NGOs are only allowed to provide services, whereas local NGOs are also allowed to work on lobby and advocacy. An NGO is defined as international as soon as more than 10% of its income comes from abroad. 25 Current Cordaid Partners Sector: DRR Name and kind Geo location Core business Strategy turnover staff of org. Jeccdo NGO Urban settings CMDRR Service >500, AFD NGO South Ethiopia Support to pastoralists Service and >500, CMDRR SOS Sahel South Ethiopia idem idem >500, Acord Ethiopia South Ethiopia idem idem >500, CIFA Ethiopia Moyale idem idem 100, , Caritas Network The national Caritas is called the Ethiopian Catholic Secretariat. Cordaid does not work together with Caritas partners in Ethiopia. There are no DRR and emergency aid contingency plans in Ethiopia amongst the Caritas network. International Coordination The Cluster approach for humanitarian operations was introduced in Ethiopia in May The following coordination structure is in place from local to national level: 26 Sectoral Task Force Government Lead Cluster Lead (UN & Int. Orgs.) Emergency Health MoH WHO Nutrition MoH/DPPA UNICEF Food Aid MoARD WFP Water & Environmental Sanitation MoWR/FMoH UNICEF Camp Management, Emergency Shelter DRMFSS UNHCR/IOM/UNICEF and NFIs Protection (specific roles to be defined To be determined UNHCR in terms of reference for cluster) Working groups 24 Lautze et al Risk and Vulnerability in Ethiopia: Learning from the past, responding to the present, preparing for the future. (A report for USAID), viewed on Based on information provided by Gijs Aarts, viewed on

7 DRR Technical Working Group DRMFSS OCHA (convener) Early Recovery DRMFSS (convener) UNDP (convener) Logistics DRMFSS WFP Emergency Telecoms DRMFSS WFP Synthesis Droughts and floods are major hazards in Ethiopia. They are very likely to aggravate as a result of climate change. Furthermore, Ethiopia is facing violence and conflict with bordering countries. The following points illustrate the main risks in this country based on hazards, vulnerability (as population exposed) and history. - In the future we may expect that droughts and consequential floods will become a more common and intensifying phenomenon. The areas prone to drought and flooding are little populated but vast. More than 11% of the population is exposed to drought which equals near 10 million people. In the past large droughts have affected 5 to 15 million people. - Ethiopia also faces potential conflicts. The country might see continued conflict with Somalia. Added to that there is a continued influx of Somali refugees into the country who can put a strain on the local population. The Ogaden are also leading continuous violence in the south east which is not expected to change. This can lead to pockets of violence, mostly in the east, not affecting large numbers of people. Resources and contacts Mitiko Kassa, HFA Focal Point DPPC, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, PO Box 5686, Addis Abeba, tel, Vincent Lelei, head of OCHA Ethiopia Country Office, Addis Abeba, tel , lelei@ un.org Gijs Aarts, PO DRR, Cordaid HQ: gijs.aarts@cordaid.nl Inge Barmentlo, PO CT, Cordaid HQ: iba@cordiad.nl Ton Haverkort, Cordaid regional coordinator: thacor@cordaid.net Sinkenash Bekele, Cordaid country coordinator: sbecor@cordaid.net 7