Prospects for Sustainable Development in Vietnam in the New Century. Nguyen Huu Ninh, Luong Quang Huy

Transcription

1 Prospects for Sustainable Development in Vietnam in the New Century Nguyen Huu Ninh, Luong Quang Huy Centre for Environment Research, Education and Development 279/24 Giang Vo, Hanoi, Vietnam Tel/Fax: Introduction Environmental change, set against a backdrop of pronounced societal trends over coming decades will undoubtedly test the resilience of Vietnamese society. This paper considers particular challenges that Vietnam faces during the early Twenty-first century. Drawing on the discussion presented in this paper, we consider how emerging trends might affect levels of vulnerability and resilience, taking as examples three particular threats and opportunities resulting from national and international processes, and draws out implications for policy. We consider, first, the impact of globalization on Vietnam and its environment. We then examine the spatial dimension of the development process within Vietnam, focusing on poverty, patterns of economic growth and population distribution. Finally, we discuss the land allocation process and the consequent trends to access to resources, which shape patterns of vulnerability and resilience. In the concluding section, we identify three key issues that must be given serious consideration if sustainable and equitable development is to be secured. Some parts of materials of this paper has been selected from the book titled Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam (Edited by W. Neil Adger, P. Mick Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh. Routledge, London, 2001). 2 The impact of economic globalisation It is difficult to pin down what is meant by economic globalisation. In the broadest sense of the term, 'globalisation reflects a widespread perception that the world is rapidly being mounded into a shared social space by economic and technological forces and that developments in one region of the world can have profound consequences for the life chances of individuals or communities on the other side of the globe (Held et al. 1999). Economic globalisation, during the contemporary period, can be characterised by near-universal participation in the international financial and monetary order; unprecedented gross flows in capital and diversity in these flows; a high transaction velocity, with 24-hour trading; the potential for high, externally-driven impacts within national economies; extensive international surveillance and regulation and the development of private financial infrastructures, all facilitated by modern technology; further growth of multinational banking and the role of the International Monetary Fund in poorer economies; increasing decentralisation, collaboration and competition; and a shift in the power balance between private finance and states (Held et al. 1999). 1

2 Table 1. FDI flow breaking in economic sector in Vietnam from US$ million Heavy Industry , EPZ's Light Industries N/A N/A Food N/A N/A Oil & Gas ,171 0 Construction 264 1, Transportation & Communications Real Estate 1, Ag, Forestry & Fishery Services Total 3,048 3,032 2,336 1,806 1,474 1, Source: The World Bank, 2001 Particular economic aspects of the process discussed in previous chapters have included the trend towards deregulation of capital markets and the freer flow of capital across borders. Foreign direct investment has increased in importance in many Asian developing countries over the past decade and financed many industrialisation strategies (Kim 1997). But, in addition to the movement of capital, there is much international pressure for once-protectionist countries to liberalise trade in good and services. Vietnam has stated its aim, following full accession to the regional economy through ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations), to become a full member of the World Trade Organization In these pronouncements, Vietnam demonstrates a commitment to the rigours of liberalised trade but, wary of the potential social and environmental impacts is ambivalent in implementing free trade policies (Tongzon 1999). A further aspect of globalisation is the opening of financial markets. In this respect, as economic renovation continues step by step, Vietnam will increasingly face the challenge of volatile financial and currency markets. The volatility of these markets constituted the major cause of the Asian economic crisis of 1997 (Wade 1998). It is argued that the flows of capital and the volatility of markets lead to other manifestations of globalisation, such as increasing discrepancies between rich and poor. Income is becoming more unequally distributed in many regions with particular uses in inequality in the former centrally planned economies (e.g. Krugman 1994; Krugman and Venables 1995). 2

3 Table 2. Economic indicators - World Bank estimates based on Vietnam Living Standards Surveys 1993 and 1998 Indicator Human Development Education Primary enrollment rate (net) Female Male Lower secondary enrollment rate (net)* Female Male Upper secondary enrollment rate (net)* Female Male Child Nutrition Incidence of Stunting Among Children 0-59 Months Female Male Adult Nutrition Incidence of moderate and severe malnutrition in adults (Body mass index less than 18.5) Female (non pregnant) Male Access to infrastructure % of rural population with public health center within the commune % of rural population with access to clean water** % of urban population with access to clean water** % of population using electricity as a main source of lighting Ownership rates of Consumer Durables % households owing a radio % households owing a television % households owing a bicycle Footnote: * The rapid increase in secondary enrollment rates reverses a decline in enrollments in the period. ** Clean water is defined to include piped water, deep wells with pumps and rainwater. Source: World Bank estimates based on Vietnam Living Standards Survey 93 and Vietnam Living Standards Survey 98. In general, Vietnam has been cushioned from the worst impacts of the Asian economic crisis that began in But integration with the regional economies and the development of export-led industrialisation can bring unforeseen environmental consequences (see also Bezanson 1998). The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is not proven - simply dashing for industrial-based economic growth and hoping this will lead to increased demand for environmental quality is not a viable option. In fact, Vietnam has been successful in implementing the first stages of environmental protection policies in the 1990s, 'perhaps enabling the economy to undergo industrialisation with comparatively less pollution than the first wave of industrialising countries' (Forsyth 1997). Even this tentative conclusion must be tempered, though, with the evident 3

4 consequences of rapid growth, unevenly distributed towards major urban areas. The sheer speed of growth, scale and spatial concentration of economic activity is an important macro-determinant of sustainability. Even with a late-coming, heavily interventionist industrial policy many economists believe that Vietnam has the opportunity to benefit from growth in labour intensive sectors such as clothing and textiles, and can move from these to; more capital intensive industries. This strategy is depicted as the classic 'flying geese' strategy of East Asian development. Both proponents and critics of these strategies - see, for example, Radelet and Sachs (1997) and Hart-Landsberg and Burkett (1998) - agree that governance is a key issue. Radelet and Sachs argue that Asia has achieved rapid growth despite severe limitations in its governance. Strong central governments control powerful and political bureaucracies that can override local interests, the judiciary and even private property rights leaving local governments weak and unable to address urgent infrastructural and regulatory challenges (Radelet and Sachs 1997). Table 3. Measures of regional poverty incidence and economic performance Region Percentage of total population Percentage of regional population below poverty line* Regional distribution poor (% of total) Annual economic growth (%) Northern Uplands Red River Delta North Central South Central Central Highlands South East Mekong Delta Note: *Poverty line defined as culturally specific level of imputed-income, calibrated by World Bank for each region. Source: United Nations Development Programme (1995), World Bank (1995). Weak regulation and enforcement can result in significant environmental costs. The Asian Development Bank (1997) has reviewed evidence of environmental degradation in Asia's cities costing billions of dollars as a result of weak and corrupt governance in the major economies. Clearly, there are important lessons to be learnt from Vietnam's Asian neighbors. 3 The spatial dimension Poverty at the national level in Vietnam has a marked spatial dimension (Table 3, Figure 2). It is also concentrated within particular sectors in the rural economy such as agriculture and forestry (United Nations Development Programme, 1995). The upland regions of the north and central Vietnam, as well as the central coastal regions, have the lowest incomes per capita and the greatest reliance on agriculture. At the national level, poverty is concentrated within the ethnic minorities of Vietnam (United Nations Development Programme, 1995). 4

5 Figure 1. Incidence of poverty in Vietnam Source: World Bank estimates based on Vietnam Living Standards Survey 93 and Vietnam Living Standards Survey 98. There are many suggested strategies for the alleviation of poverty in Vietnam, particularly with regard to its high incidence in certain regions. Most of these strategies centre on sustained economic growth (Vietnam Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment 1994; United Nations Development Programme 1995; World Bank 1999b). The regions with the highest incidence of poverty (Table 3) have, however, been least successful in stimulating economic growth during the past decade, particularly the central coastal regions. Poverty alleviation strategies advanced by government and aid agencies recommend reduction in the relative isolation of these regions, for example, through road building, alongside investment in targeted social services in education, health and agricultural research and the provision of a social safety net. Vietnam has a long-standing policy of attempting to achieve balanced regional development through, inter alia, redistribution of its population from high-density areas into previously less productive agricultural areas and by restricting movement to cities. The national government policy of encouraging out-migration from the Red River Delta, for example, begun under the Five Year Plan, was motivated by the desire to reduce high population densities and involved direct subsidy often to levels such as VND 4,000,000 per household, significantly more than the annual income for most families (Xenos et al. 1993). People were encouraged to move from the delta regions to more sparsely populated and previously non-agricultural upland areas such as Bac Thai, Son La and Lai Chau (Thrift and Forbes 1986). In the period from 1961 to 1975 alone, one million people moved out of the Red River Delta as a result. Although empirical research shows that policy interventions of subsidies and regulations have been successful in encouraging migration, the 'sending' provinces and cities were still experiencing net immigration in the 1980s (Anh Dang et al. 1997). 5

6 Figure 2. Poverty headcount. Source: GSO-World Bank

7 In the present-day, the vast majority of land that could be turned over to agriculture has already been converted, and the limited prospects for further expansion of irrigation technology place a major constraint on increasing agricultural production (Pingali et al. 1997). Thus, much resettlement in coastal areas involves conversion of coastal wetlands, mangroves and estuarine mudflats to agricultural land or for use in aquaculture; households are being encouraged to move without consideration of local institutional and environmental contexts and this has ambiguous impacts on social vulnerability. In upland areas, resettlement often requires forest clearance in fragile ecosystems. Sustainability can be difficult to guarantee under both these circumstances. Increasingly, migration in Vietnam is occurring through temporary movements with migrants retaining family ties, and even land, in their home areas, and often sending remittances back to those rural areas, even from large distances, and returning home on a seasonal basis or after an extended period away. Many migrants headed for Hanoi during the late 1980s and early 1990s They came mainly from the Red River Delta, but also from southern and central provinces (Vu Lu Tap and Taillard 1993). This is classic pull migration, with the attraction of increasing real wages and opportunities in Hanoi and other cities. The easing of restrictions on population movement, alongside market reforms, will undoubtedly increase population mobility and forms of spontaneous migration. A study by Anh Dang et al. (1997) suggests that temporary and circular migration will increase as a proportion of all migration as a result of the relaxation of labour laws. Considering implications for social vulnerability and resilience, one of the most positive effects of migration - indeed, often its prime rationale from the migrant s point of view-is the creation of opportunities for livelihood enhancement and risk sharing, through, for example, remittance income (Locke et al. 2000). Reduction of pressure on the natural resource base in the sending areas may be a secondary benefit but must be considered alongside environmental consequences in the migrant receiving areas. Figure 3. Projected reductions in poverty Source: Agrawal and Beard (2001) 7

8 The tension between planned migration policies and the spontaneous demand for increased population mobility is a major challenge both for Vietnam and for many Southeast Asian countries. Migration policies and incentives need jointly to consider the interaction of market opportunities, labor mobility, the nature of available resources, cultural issues and spatial physical planning to minimise risks and enhance benefits. The underlying cause of 'pull' migration in the Vietnamese context is the contrast between the opportunities available in the agrarian rural economy and the greater opportunities for poverty alleviation in the urban economy and its associated growth sectors. The creation of alternative economic growth poles is a feature of government policy and must be a key consideration both in alleviating pressure on Vietnam's burgeoning cities and reducing inequity across the nation. Poverty and access to resources are the keys to understanding vulnerability at the individual level, and policies for poverty alleviation are, therefore, critically important in this regard. 4 Land allocation and access to resources Perhaps the most important institutional changes in the agricultural areas of Vietnam over the final decade of the twentieth century were those associated with land allocation. The land allocation process began in 1988 and was confirmed with the Land Law in The process varies according to the type of land. Rice land, for example, is generally allocated on the basis of household membership, while hill land is allocated based on the ability of households to pay cooperatives for the rights to 'improvements' such as planted trees (Rambo 1995a). Access to land fundamentally determines access to resources in the agrarian economy and, hence, levels of vulnerability and resilience. At this time, though, the net effect of the land allocation process in Vietnam is difficult to assess. For example, some authors argue that, in the areas of provision of public services, such as agricultural research, health and education, the private control of land and consequent increases in private income have been taken as signals to reduce state expenditure on these public goods with ambiguous impacts on the social structure of rural areas acting in different directions (Rambo 1995a; Tipping and Truong Viet Dung 1997). By contrast, Kolko (1997) sees land privatisation, and the parallel emergence of both private credit systems and land rental markets, as having had an overwhelming negative, indeed, cataclysmic impact: The basic structure of what had once been the large majority of the nation's relatively stable, organised universe was now placed under severe stress and profoundly traumatised, especially in the northern Red River Delta and along the central coast. It was entirely predictable that the reallocation of land would necessarily affect rural social peace fundamentally for a very long time, creating incalculable risks. (Kolko 1997: 91). The negative consequences of land allocation for vulnerability are clearly related to social disruption and stress and to restricted access and entitlement to resources. Regional disparities in land allocation also have impacts on resilience. In the intensive agricultural lowlands, allocation has been relatively equitable and transparent, and, with leases allocated to households rather than individuals, has avoided gender bias in inheritance patterns (Rambo 1995a). The negative consequences of these reforms on social resilience in these regions have, therefore, been concentrated on the loss of forms of collective action. Although food production has dramatically increased with individual land holding, for example, the reduction in the role of agricultural cooperatives has had negative consequences. According to Rambo: Maintenance of communal irrigation networks has become problematic in some areas as there is now no effective institutional arrangements for mobilising; the labour to keep the system in repair. (Rambo 1995) 8

9 In the upland areas, full account of the differences in resource use structure, particularly of forest use, has not been incorporated into the land allocation process. Moreover, sustainable development for ethnic minorities requires recognition of the resilience of traditional management practices and 'space' in which to coexist within wider Vietnamese society. Both these factors mitigate against effective and equitable land distribution. In addition, political influence and lack of transparency have conspired to result in more inequitable land transformation in highland areas. In lowland agricultural regions, such practices are somewhat avoided by making the rules clear and unambiguous, and, according to Le Trong Cuc and Rambo (1993), by village level solidarity and autonomy built up over the past three decades. Inequitable allocation and rent-seeking bureaucratic allocation of resources is, however, also observed in the lowlands with respect to common property resources. For resources such as mangroves, existing use by poorer households are overturned by individual allocation of land for reclamation or aquaculture. 5 Conclusions Sustainable development - ensuring equitable economic growth while protecting the environment on which all depend - necessitates limiting the vulnerability of human populations and natural ecosystems and enhancing their resilience. Human communities under pressure, whether environmental or socio-economic in nature, will likely overexploit the natural resource base and their prospects for economic growth will be ever more limited. It follows that policies and measures directed towards reducing vulnerability to environmental change, strengthening resilience and facilitating the ability to cope with stress and, where appropriate, to adapt must form a key part of any effective strategy for sustainable economic growth. Checks and balances are required so that trends within the country and at the international scale do not erode the capacity of the Vietnamese people to manage environmental stress. The process of land allocation, for example, can affect social resilience directly by skewing access to resources and indirectly through the weakening of forms of collective action and a reduction in formal social expenditure. Positive tendencies should be strengthened, with compensation promptly deployed to offset adverse effects. A number of authors in this volume have stressed the importance of considering the biophysical and social context, so that measures are not imposed without regard for circumstance and that the benefits of diversity in response are realised. As far as international trends are concerned, Vietnam needs to resist those aspects of economic globalisation that are considered socially undesirable, such as inward investment in polluting industries and opening of certain commodity markets on which poorer sections of the population are dependent, and take advantage of the benefits that greater interaction with the international community can bring. Given the speed of environmental and societal change and our inability to provide accurate forecasts of relevant trends, flexibility, supported by continual monitoring and evaluation, must be a necessary attribute of any sustainable development strategy. This resonates with many aspects of Vietnamese government policy, particularly with regard to step-by-step development planning. We identify three priority areas that we consider will play a fundamental role in determining prospects for sustainable development in Vietnam. First, there is a strikingly clear need to manage carefully continuing engagement with the process of economic globalisation, reconciling advantages with the loss of self-sufficiency and independence that must follow. Second, we underline the significance of Vietnam's traditional commitment to equity, in terms of both power and access to resources. This commitment provides a very effective basis for limiting social exclusion and promoting sustainable resource utilisation. Third, we emphasise the importance of empowerment at the local level, another historic characteristic of the nation given the traditional basis of the Vietnamese economy in the rural village, and, through this, the realisation of diverse opportunities for development trajectories that are sensitive to local and regional environmental and socio- cultural circumstances. 9

10 If there is one lesson for policymakers that emerges above all others from the review presented in this book, it is that due consideration must be given to the resilience of individuals and local communities when processes such as land allocation and institutional reform are encouraged on the basis of economic efficiency gains at the national level. If that message is taken seriously, and there are hopeful signs that this is occurring, then the new road of doi moi (innovation) may lead to the reality of sustainable development. References Adger, W.N., Kelly, P.M. and Nguyen Huu Ninh (2001) Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, Routledge, London. Agrawal, N. and Beard, J. (2001) Halving Poverty and Eradicating Hunger by 2010, prepared for the Poverty Task Force Vietnam. Anh Dang, Goldstein, S. and Mcnally, J. (1997) Interal migration and development in Vietnam, International Migration Review 31: Bezanson B.A. (1998) Tiger cubs at the crossroads: some policy issues facing Vietnam, IDS Bulletin 29,3: Forsyth, T. (1997) Industrialisation in Vietnam: social change and environment in transitional developing countries, in R.M. Auty and K. Brown (eds) Approaches to sustainable Development, London: printer. Held, D., McGrew, A., Goldblatt, D. and Perraton, J. (1999) Global Transfomation: Politics Economics and Cultural, Cambridge: Polity Press. Kim, K.S. (1997) Income distribution and poverty: an interregional comparision, World Development 25: Kolko,G. (1997) Vietnam: Anatomy of a Peace, London, Routledge. Krugman, P. (1994) The myth of the Asian miracle, Foreign Affairs 73,6: Krugman, P. and Venable, A.J. (1995) Globalisation and inequality of nations, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110: Locke, C. Adger, W.N. and Kelly, P.M. (2000) Changing places: The impacts of migration on social resilience, Environment 42,7: Pingali, P.L. Nguyen Tri Khiem, Gerpacio, R.V. and Vo Tong Xuan (1997) Prospects for sustaining Vietnam s rice exporter status, Food Policy 22: Radelet, S. and Sachs, J. (1997) Asia re-emergence, Forein Affairs 76,6: Rambo, A.T. (1995) Privatization of communal land in Northern Vietnam, Common proverty Resource Gigest 33:7-9. Thrift, N. and Forbes, D. (1986) The Price of War: Urbanisation in Vietnam , London: Allen and Unwin. Tongzon, J.L. (1999) The challenge of regional economic integration: The Vietnamese perspective, Development Economic 37: United Nations Development Programme (1995) Poverty Elimination in Vietnam, Hanoi: United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Population Fund and United Nations Children s Fund. Vietnam Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (1994) Red River Delta Master Plan Report: Soils and Land Use, Hanoi: United Nations Development Programme and Ministry of Science Technology and Environment. 10

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