Lessons and proposed key policy responses to mitigating the risks from the current global financial crisis

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Lynne Haynes
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1 Trade and Development Board Investment, Enterprise and Development Commission Multi-year expert meeting on international cooperation: South-South cooperation and regional integration Geneva, 4-5 February 2009 PRESENTATION SUBMITTED TO THE EXPERT MEETING Lessons and proposed key policy responses to mitigating the risks from the current global financial crisis by Mr. Alphious Ncube Director, Financial Sector Management Programme, Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI) The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.

2 Expert Meeting on International Cooperation: South-South Cooperation and Regional Integration, 4-5 February 2009, Geneva, Switzerland. Lessons and proposed key policy responses to mitigating the risks from the current global financial crisis By Alphious M. Ncube, Director, Financial Sector Management Programme, The Macroeconomic & Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI) The case for the Eastern and Southern African economies 1 This note responds to a request from UNCTAD to brainstorm on the issue of the current global financial crisis and its implications to the South South cooperation. The note specifically makes reference to the African countries, in particular the Eastern and Southern African countries, where MEFMI has a capacity building portfolio working closely with the ministries of finance & planning and their central banks in thirteen member countries. Specifically MEFMI covers capacity building in Debt management, Macro economics management, Reserves and Financial Market Development. The responses in this paper follow the question order as documented on page 13 of the paper circulated by UNCTAD ref: TD/B/C/.ii/MEM.2/2; Sect B. Introduction The period 2002 to 2007 marked substantial growth of investments in the Eastern and Southern African Economies. Growth during that time was underpinned by improved macroeconomic conditions and policies, favourable commodity prices, lower inflation, and increased remittances from citizens in Diaspora. This was further augmented by favourable domestic interest rates that attracted sizeable Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) both from abroad (developed and emerging economies) and from within the region (especially South Africa Transnational Corporations (TNC) to various countries within the Eastern and Southern Africa). Equally important in this investment driven growth equation was the increased Official Development Assistance (ODA) through programme aid, (Budget support, BOP support), Sector support or Sector Wide approaches, debt relief initiative (HIPC, etc) and other programmes to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets. Official foreign exchange reserves of these economies increased underpinned by increased capital flows and debt relief programmes. Management of these official reserves, through optimal asset allocation strategies was seen by many central banks reserve 1 Angola, Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe

3 managers as the most efficient way in managing these reserves. All these contributed to the investment driven growth in the region. As the first round effects of the global crisis started to unfold in the major economies, the Eastern and Southern African economies felt they were not directly affected by the crisis. The region continued to experience relative growth albeit at a slow rate. Investments, led by regional FDI s, continued to flourish in these economies on account of high attractive interest rates. However, as the global crisis widened, moving from the housing sector in the US to the global banking sector with several financial loss revelations from major commercial banks and investment houses, fears amongst developing countries started to emerge. The concerns were centered on the contagion effects which would soon catch up with the continent and swamp the economic progress achieved in the recent past through the following effects: 1. Reduced capital flows. Sustained market turbulences abroad would affect equity prices for international stock and bonds. This would in turn affect investors profits and hence limit there expansion in developing countries, or affect their investment sentiments on account of risk aversion and preference to keep their capital to where they can monitor it closely (so called flight to safety). Likewise prices of international bonds issued by developing countries to finance infrastructure development were equally affected and subsequently affected funding of on going projects. This was demonstrated by Mr Khor yesterday when he mentioned that South Korea raised money at libor plus 600 basis points recently. 2. Reduced international demand of exports from developing world. The effects from the global economic downturn in developed economies significantly affected financial institutions lending capacity; house hold incomes through the slackened labor market (job cuts) and eventually affected the consumption chain patterns. This led to low industry utilization capacity, manufacturing decline, and slackened consumption. Consequently, international demand for exports and industrial raw materials from developing countries have started to decline. Likewise demand for manufactured goods and other finished products (AGOA) from the developing countries are equally affected especially after the buy America policy adopted by America recently. The implication of this to the small developing economies like those in the Eastern and Southern Africa would be loss of export earning, constrained real economic expansion resulting in lower growth rates going forward. 3. Reduced remittances from the Diaspora as the labor market slackens.

4 A number of Eastern and Southern African countries now depend on remittances from abroad both in the region (mainly SA) and globally. The retrenchment of these employees as the growth in the global economy slackens is a major cause for concern for the region. Trends are already showing remittances declining. Loss of jobs would intensify this trend. 4. Reduced Official Development Assistance (ODA). During the past years, considerable progress had been registered in enhancing support of development in the East and Southern African economies. ODA volumes have increased and more commitments have been made by the advanced economies (G8) for stepped up assistance. At the same time efforts have been undertaken to render ODA commitments in a better delivery mode to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). All this might be lost as funds might be channeled to resuscitate and/ or deal with the global crisis whose direction and extent of damage is yet to be fully evaluated. All the major economies, namely, USA, Europe and Japan are already reported in recession. 5. Possibility of increased Non Performing Assets (NPA) in the banking sector. Banks that had funded long term investment projects, on account of booming growth and expectations of future high growth rates and performance are vulnerable to default as these projects would now technically find it difficult to honor their obligations. This, expected as a second round effect, would impact on the progress of the banking sector and going forward, greatly set the already achieved banking sector stability backward. A. Policy Responses to Mitigate Risks. Concerned that these effects would significantly affect the economic progress achieved, the African Union (AU) together with the African Development Bank (AfDB) organized a meeting of African Ministers of Finance and Planning & Governors of the Central Banks in Tunis, on 12th November The objective of the meeting was to discuss the impact of the global crisis on African economies, its impact on Aid to Africa and come up with a common African position on how to address the challenges and mitigate its effects. The meeting highlighted the effects of the financial crisis on Africa, and indicated that trade and investment flows are likely to be affected because of the concerns about recession in the developed countries, which are the main consumers of Africa s raw materials. With respect to official Development assistance to Africa, the meeting observed that is also likely to be negatively affected, thereby further worsening the achievement of the already off the track Millennium Development Goals (MDG) by During the meeting, it was agreed to set up a committee that was tasked with the responsibilities of monitoring developments, provide regular follow up, advise and make proposals on how best to contribute to the international deliberations in relation to the economic impact of the financial crisis and mitigating measures.

5 The meeting also welcomed the proposed responses by the African Development Bank, the emergency Liquidity Facility, and the Trade Finance Facility for the innovative ways of supporting low income countries to help them mitigate the effects of the crisis. In another effort, the AU has just organised a meeting in Ethiopia Addis Ababa for the African heads of state. The objective of the meeting is to further discuss the way forward to dealing with the crisis. The resolutions of this meeting were not yet available at the time of writing this note. B. Regional Economic Blocks within Eastern and Southern African Countries (i) Other than the meeting organized by the AU in Tunis, where African Ministers and Governors of central banks were united as a block, and the very recent one for the African heads of states in Addis Ababa, there is no current evidence to suggest that different regions within Africa have emerged or merged stronger than others after the revelations of the global financial crisis. This is something we are yet to see in the near future as hangover events filter through various stages. It should also be noted that The AU meetings do not necessarily mean that Africa emerged or has emerged stronger as one economic block but rather is a sign of concerted efforts willing to get together and address a common problem. On country levels consultations between central banks and ministries of finance of various countries are an ongoing process, while at the economic regional blocks (SADC, EAC, COMESA) consultations are also an ongoing process to try and find ways to mitigate these risks. (ii) A number of policy lessons can be emulated from these events; First, Africa as a block needs to stand ready for any eventuality all the time and not necessarily meet when crisis has risen. Concerted efforts therefore must be designed to establish long and sustainable institutions that will deal with such problems. In another perspective, as a continent there is need to foster focused economic integration where countries would need to come together under one umbrella and take advantages of large economies of scale. C. Lessons drawn from regional integration in enhancing south-south cooperation. The ultimate objective of regional integration is to bring together a group of countries, in most cases neighbouring countries, into a cooperating arrangement that will positively foster social, economic and political issues within the region. By promoting a well designed and focused south-south regional cooperation, these economies will effectively accelerate the transition to a more open, valuable and balanced economic independence and benefit from the following.

6 Within the integrated approach, both quality and marketing techniques will improve and promote diversification and export production on a larger scale with wider markets and increased regional demand. Integration will also increase the market size and, where economies of scale are present, reduce the cost per unit. This will benefit both producers and customers in the integrated market. To the consumers, it will make it possible to purchase goods at their real prices due to the competitive environment which would impose an obligation to the producers of goods and services to offer the best prices possible. According to Thomsen (1994) host country market size is one of the strongest determinants of where foreign firms invest. Consequently Investors outside the integrated regions would be attracted in large numbers to take advantages of the concessionary policies put in place to safeguard the region's industries. Investor relocation to take advantages of concession would bring along substantial transfer of technology. Integration will enable such countries to bargain with additional strength in what they produce best (comparative advantage) and consequently get better returns. Once achieved, regional integration will boost the South South bargaining power in the international markets. D. Implication of potential decline in ODA. The implication of reduced ODA assistance to South South cooperation is double edged. On one hand, reduction in ODA will greatly constrain a number of countries whose programmes and sector development targets depend highly on ODA handouts. Such programmes includes support for national poverty alleviation, government public service programmes, education, fighting corruption, and other state and administrative capacities. Reduction would mean that the commitments made and those that had been projected forward would fall short of the amounts required to achieve the MDG targets as funds would be channelled to temper the global financial crisis in advanced economies. African countries therefore will not be able to create self propelling systems that will lead to independence from donor aid and ultimately to economic growth and development. On the other hand, reduction in the ODA might enable these countries work hard and reduce dependency, a syndrome that has kept African developing economies behave as beggars all the time. E. Potential of interregional Investment fund. The potential for interregional investment fund is high and the will has already been kick started by the AU meeting for African Ministers and Central Bank Governors that

7 took place in Tunis. Plans are already underway to establish the African Investment Bank and the African stock exchange which will organize domestic resources and redirect them to bigger investment projects. F. Lessons From The Current Global Financial Crisis 1 The Eastern and Southern African region is not immune to global financial crisis as most of the countries are already feeling the pinch from recession in the major economies. The recession does not bode well for the export led economies. This calls for the diversification of exports to include manufactures, the increase of local demand and reduction of dependence on commodity exports. 2 In the financial sector, there is need to improve corporate governance and controls even in developed economies, and to avoid excessive leverage as witnessed recently. Unsound risk management including weak underwriting practices should not be swept under the carpet. 3 The problems of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mae and AIG call for strong oversight and regulation, even of Government institutions. In the Eastern and Southern Africa region, we have similar institutions with very weak regulation and supervision. 4 Stabilisation of systemically important institutions (so called too big to fail institutions) has introduced a new paradigm shift in policy especially with respect to ownership of these institutions. The hitherto pillar for privatisation has been tempered with seriously. 5 There is also a strong call for effective oversight of too big to manage institutions that conduct business across borders. The question is can these conglomerates be managed effectively from the centre or should the management be decentralised? Conclusion There is need for countries that form the South South cooperation to remain vigilent in safeguarding recently achieved growth. Recession in advanced economies will surely have an adverse effect on the growth. Sustained strong economic performance will therefore be needed to substantially reduce poverty and also achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Strong growth will therefore require a focus on productive investment alongside maintaining stable macro economic conditions. As these countries commence preparations ahead of these risks, there would be need to consider the following: 1. Manage exchange rate volatilities of their local currencies against major currencies through appropriate monetary policy tools. This would require adoption of a tight monetary stance to prevent excessive depreciation.

8 2. There will be need to design appropriate fiscal stimulus packages that will generate domestic demand to offset the slackened foreign demand. 3. Investment in social protection and human development to hinder severe permanent declines in the welfare of the poorer households should be put at the fore front. 4. Increased regulatory and supervisory best practices for financial sectors to avoid banking crises that might ruin the whole economy and wane confidence and stability that has been achieved over a long period. 5. Promote and strengthen regional or bloc integration to take advantage of larger market benefits, increased competition, gains from nee trade opportunities, etc. 6. Previous crises have shown that developing countries can be vulnerable to highly volatile international capital flows even when their macroeconomic fundamentals look OK. 7. Likewise abdicating responsibility to the private sector, especially in the banking industry has also proved to be risky. In view of the above therefore, there is need to review the economic liberalization approach and assess whether it is logical to further pursue it (especially in countries that had not yet fully liberalized) or instead take a more cautionary strategy. These responses must be systematic, comprehensive, decisive and very well coordinated.

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP Ministerial Round Table Discussions PANEL 1: The Global Financial Crisis and Fragile States in Africa The 2009 African Development Bank Annual Meetings Ministerial Round