Bogazici University Department of Economics Spring 2017 EC : Turkish Economy

Transcription

1 Bogazici University Department of Economics Spring 2017 EC : Turkish Economy Instructor: Ceyhun Elgin Office: NB 212 Office hours: TBA Website: Lecture: T, Th, Th 8, 7, 8; NH 302, NH 302, NH 302 is the best way to reach me. Please allow up to 24 hours for a reply. 1 Course description This course aims to increase student knowledge and understanding of the Turkish economy. To this end, various issues concerning the Turkish economy will be covered both from a historical and analytical perspective. Topics to be covered include, but are not limited to; economic organization in, and resources of, Turkey; structure and trends in income, production, population, finance and trade; and evolution of economic policy. Moreover, students will also be encouraged to draw on material from other countries to gain a comparative perspective. 2 Prerequisites According to the university catalog EC 203 (Microeconomics 1) and EC 205 (Macroeconomics 1) are prerequisites for EC 470. Moreover, you have to be a senior level (fourth year) student in order to be eligible for taking this course. Since economics uses mathematical modeling as a tool to understand complex human behaviour; Math-wise, I will take as granted that you know how to work with calculus (derivatives and general optimization). Considering that this is an applied theory course we will also be working with the data. Therefore, at the very minimum, you should have a working knowledge of some program to organize data (like Microsoft Excel). 3 Textbook There is no required textbook of the course. Course readings will be made available online. 4 Course requirements 4.1 Class participation Attendance is not mandatory. However, active participation in class is strongly encouraged (as it will constitute 10 % of your overall grade) and you should keep in mind that the definition of participation includes relevant contributions to class discussion, and participation in in-class activities. 1

2 4.2 Midterm and Final Exams There will be one midterm exam and one final exam. The tentative date and time for the midterm exam is Tuesday, March 8th. 4.3 Group Presentation Last 8-9 weeks of classes will be devoted to group presentations. To this end, you will come up with groups of at most 4 students. Each group will also have a group leader. Presentation groups will be responsible for preparing a 30 minute presentation about a topic related to the course s material. Each presentation will be followed by a class discussion. (A suggested list of topics is provided below). I expect a formal exposition, and will assume that all members of the team worked together to prepare the presentation. To assess this, the order of exposition will be random; each team member must be ready to present any given part of the presentation. Each student s grade on the presentation will be as follows: 70% will depend on my assessment and 30% on the score given by the group leaders. Topics will be chosen by the groups on a first-come first-served basis. 1. Macroeconomic Policy: Monetary Policy and the Central Bank 2. Macroeconomic Policy: Fiscal Policy: Taxation and Budget Expenditures 3. Macroeconomic Policy: Inflation, Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy 4. Macroeconomic Policy: Stability, Growth, External Balance and Debt Sustainability 5. Political Economy, Political Business Cycles, Economic Determinants and Effects of Elections 6. Crises of the Turkish Economy 7. Development Planning in Turkey 8. Turkish Economy from an institutionalist perspective: Role of Private and Public Institutions 9. Globalization, Foreign Trade Liberalization, Customs Union with the EU and inward and outward FDI 10. Sources of Growth and Growth Financing - Savings, Investment, Capital Accumulation, Foreign Capital Inflows, FDI 11. Growth, Productivity and Employment in Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services 12. Agriculture - Transformation of Agriculture 13. Labor Market, Unionization, Participation, Employment, Unemployment 14. Public Enterprizes, Privatization and Regulation 15. Income Distribution and Poverty 16. Energy Economics: Perspectives from Turkish economy 17. Environmental Economics: Perspectives from Turkish economy 18. Informal (Shadow, Hidden) Economy in Turkey 2

3 19. Economics of Education 20. Outsourcing in Turkey 21. Gender Issues in the Turkish Economy 22. Impact of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis on Turkish economy 23. Turkish Economy in Turkey as an Open Economy: Trading Partners of Turkey 25. Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees 5 Grading policy and grading scale The weights for the final score will be as follows: Concept Percentage of final grade Attendance & Participation 10% Midterm Exam 30% Group Presentation 20% Final Exam 40% Below is the grading scale for the course. I reserve the right to lower these cut-off points (i.e., increase the letter grades for percentages), but I will not raise the cut-offs (i.e., make it harder to get good grades). Percentage Grade AA BA BB CB CC DC DD F 3

4 6 Tentative Course Schedule The material that will be covered is summarized below. In the course of progress this schedule may change. I will notify you in advance when such a change occurs. Week 1: Introduction, Pre-republic and Early (First) Republic Era 1. Introduction to the Course 2. Revolution and War Years: Open Economy in the Early Republic: Protection and Etatist Industrialization: Second World War: Week 2: Fall of the First Republic and the Second Republic 1. Integration with the World Economy: Unsustainable Integration and Re-Integration: Domestic Oriented Import Substitution: Economic and Political Crisis, Fall of the Second Republic: Week 3: Third Republic 1. Restrengthening of Capital and Trade Liberalization: Financial Liberalization and Thereafter: ** means that the reading is very important. * means that the reading is somewhat important. Readings for the First Three Weeks Alexander, A. P Industrial Entrepreneurship in Turkey: Origins and Growth. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 8:4 p * Boratav, K., and Yeldan, E., Turkey, : Financial Liberalization, Macroeconomic (In)-Stability and Patterns of Distribution ** Cecen, A., Dogruel, A., and Dogruel, F Economic Growth and Structural Change in Turkey , International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 26, No. 1 (Feb., 1994), pp ** Ertugrul, A., and Selcuk, F A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, , Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 37: 6, p ** Erder, N., Karaosmanoglu, A., Cilingiroglu, A. and Sonmez, A., Seruveni, Istanbul Bilgi Universitesi Yayinlari. * Planli Kalkinma 4

5 Kucuk, Y The Macro-Model of the Plan. * Kucuk, Y Sectoral Programming in the Plan * Nas, T Tracing the Economic Transformation of Turkey from the 1920s to EU Accession, Chapters 2 and 3. * Okyar, O Development Background of the Turkish Economy, Source: International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3 pp ** Pamuk, S Intervention during the Great Depression Another look at Turkish experience Ch 12 in the Mediterranean Response to Globalization before 1950, Routledge Press, London and New York. ** Pamuk, S Political Economy of Industrialization in Turkey. MERIP Reports, No. 93, Turkey: The Generals Take Over pp ** Sakallioglu, U., and Yeldan, E Politics, Society and Financial Liberalization: Turkey in the 1990s, Development and Change, 31, pp * Shorter, F. C The Population of Turkey after the War of Independence. Int. J. Middle East Stud. 17 (1985), * Turkes, M A Patriotic Leftist Development Strategy Proposal in Turkey in the 1930s: The Case of KADRO (CADRE) Movement Int. J. Middle East Stud. 33, * Taymaz, E and E. Voyvoda (2012) Marching to the Beat of a Late Drummer: Turkey s Experience of Neoliberal Industrialization since 1980?, New Perspectives on Turkey, No 47, pp * Week 4: A Retrospective Evaluation 1. Evaluating the Growth Performance 2. Evaluation the Economic Policy Readings for Week 4 Altug, S., A. Filiztekin and S. Pamuk Sources of Long-Term Economic Growth for Turkey, , European Review of Economic History, Vol. 12, pp ** Bugra, A., and Keyder, C The Turkish welfare regime in transformation, Journal of European Social Policy, 16:3, pp * Cicek, D., and Elgin, C. 2011, Not-Quite-Great Depressions of Turkey, Economic Modelling, 28(6), pages ** Cicek, D., and Elgin, C. 2011,Accounting for Turkish Business Cycles, with Deniz Cicek, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, vol. 26(309), pages * Geyikdagi, V. N., and Geyikdagi, Y. M Liberalization in Turkey: Does History Repeat Itself?,Middle Eastern Studies, 45, * Imrohoroglu, A., Imrohoroglu, S., and Ungor, M Agricultural Productivity and Growth in Turkey.* 5

6 Elgin, C. and Kuzubas, T. U Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector, Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, vol. 27 (316), pages * Onis, Z. and Senses, F. (2007), Global Dynamics, Domestic Coalitions and a Reactive State: Major Policy Shifts in Post-War Turkish Economic Development, METU Studies in Development, Vol. 34. No. 2, 2007, pp ** Weeks 5-6: Current Issues in the Turkish Economy 1. Labor Issues 2. Political Economy 3. Crises 4. Regulation 5. Informality Readings for Weeks 5-6 Adaman, F.; Bugra, A. and Insel, A. (2009), Societal Context of Labor Union Strategy: The Case of Turkey, Labor Studies Journal, 34(2): ** Arpac, O. and Bird, G. (2009), Turkey and the IMF: A case study in the political economy of policy implementation, The Review of International Organizations, 4 (2): * Bakir, C. (2009), Wobbling but Still on its Feet: The Turkish Economy in the Global Financial Crisis, South European Society and Politics, 14(1): * Dumludag, D. (2009), An Analysis of The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: The Role of The Institutional Context, Journal of Business Economics Management, 10(1):15-30.* Emrence, C. (2008), After Neo-liberal Globalization: The Great Transformation of Turkey, Comparative Sociology, 7: * Rodrik, D. (2009), The Turkish Economy after the Crisis, Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper, 2009/9.** Onis, Z. (2009), Beyond the 2001 financial crisis: The political economy of the new phase of neo-liberal restructuring in Turkey, Review of International Political Economy, 16:3 August 2009: * Onaran, O. and Oyvat, C The Political Economy of Inequality and Boom-Bust Cycles in Turkey: Before and After the Great Recession.** Zenginobuz, E. Ü. (2008), On Regulatory Agencies in Turkey and Their Independence, Turkish Studies, 9(3): * Herr, H. and Sonat, Z. M. (2014). The fragile growth regime of Turkey in the post-2001 period. New Perspectives on Turkey. 51.* Elgin, C. and Sezgin, M. B. (2015). Informality in Different Sectors: Evidence from a Firm- Level Survey in Turkey.mimeo.* 6

7 Cantekin, K. and Elgin, C. (2015). Extent and Growth Effects of Informality in Turkey: Evidence from a Firm-Level Survey. mimeo.** World Bank Group -Turkey Partnership: Country Program Snapshot** World Bank Report: Turkey Country Economic Memorandum Informality: Causes, Consequences, Policies* World Bank Report on Turkey s Transition: Integration, Inclusion, Institutions* 7