Terms of Reference for Evaluation Temporary cash assistance in Tripoli Oxfam Lebanon Programme

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1 Terms of Reference for Evaluation Temporary cash assistance in Tripoli Oxfam Lebanon Programme Background & Rationale The influx of Syrian refugees to Lebanon over the past 6 years has added intense pressure to existing infrastructure and limited resources in an already fragile economy struggling to cope with high unemployment and the rising cost of living. Competition over jobs and a stagnating economy has led to decreased availability of work opportunities, increased short-term contracts and social benefits withheld from employees. 1 The situation is particularly dire for poor women who face increasing difficulties because many are forced to work, generally in informal and low paid jobs, and also have to maintain their childcare and households duties. While humanitarian assistance initially addressed the immediate needs of the refugee population, the size and duration of the displacement has put increasing socio-economic pressure on both the host country as well as the refugee population. Only an estimated 22% of refugees will be receiving multipurpose cash assistance (MCAP) by the end of Diminished humanitarian aid, restrictions on the right to work and limited access to services has left many Syrian refugees on the edge of destitution. Protection risks also abound. According to the Oxfam 2016 report, Lebanon: looking ahead in times of crises, an estimated 57% of Syrian refugees have no legal residency, increasing their risk of exploitation. A study conducted later in the year by the Lebanese Centre for Human Rights found that 86% of Syrian refugees interviewed do not have legal residency permits. Since detention is a major risk, mobility is reduced resulting in less access to healthcare, employment, ATM machines and contracted shops to redeem food vouchers. Employment is almost exclusively through informal structures since the ability to legally work is very difficult to obtain. Therefore, refugees tend to find daily labour positions leaving workers vulnerable to abuse by employers, such as arbitrary withholding of pay and threats to report them. 2 This precarious existence leaves households extremely vulnerable to shocks, whereas any health emergency, injury or period of unemployment can lead to a downward spiral of poverty. Lebanese households are also under increased pressure as indicated in the study Social Protection, Poverty and Inequality in Lebanon. While the national social protection system provides support to many of the poorest households, the study found that many receiving NPTP assistance, which is limited to education, health subsidies and some food vouchers for the poorest, still struggle to meet their basic needs. A link was also noted in the study between severe poverty and socio-economic shocks for both Lebanese and Syrian refugees. When a shock occurs, such as the loss or impairment of the breadwinner, the household must resort to negative coping strategies such as taking out debt that can t be repaid, taking children out of school and selling productive assets. This tends to increase vulnerability to future shocks and it becomes extremely difficult for the household to recover without external assistance. Providing unconditional cash assistance as part of Lebanon s social protection platform is one way households can be supported to maintain a minimum standard of living. Access to reactive cash assistance can provide an important source of support to help households recover and to help them avoid falling deeper into poverty. 1 Oxfam, Social Protection, Poverty and Inequality in Lebanon, Oxfam, Lebanon: looking ahead in times of crises, P a g e

2 In November 2016, Oxfam, Utopia and the NPTP began piloting Temporary Cash Assistance (TCA) in the Bab al Tabbaneh Social Development Centre (SDC) and surrounding neighbourhoods of Tripoli for vulnerable Lebanese and Syrian refugee households. Tripoli city is home to one of the highest rates of poverty in Lebanon, 3 with 57% of the population considered deprived according to the Urban Poverty Index, 4 73% of households claim to be unable to access any type of health coverage 5 and 11% are illiterate 6, severely constraining employment options and quality of life. The Bab al Tabbaneh neighbourhood is one of the most vulnerable areas in Tripoli with 87% considered economically deprived 7, 72% unemployment, high risk of conflict, and a high concentration of refugees. The purpose of TCA is to provide 4 months of cash assistance to vulnerable Lebanese and Syrian refugee households coping with a socio-economic shock so that they can more easily meet their basic needs, remain above the poverty line and be less likely to increase negative or irreversible coping mechanisms while coping with the shock. The aim is to avoid a downward spiral before it starts. The temporary duration is to allow households time to recover and find alternative solutions while maintaining their standard of living. Beneficiaries receive $175 per month in less than a week after assessment 8 to help ease the burden immediately. Cash assistance is also complemented with referrals to other services such as protection, livelihoods and healthcare within and external to the SDC to provide more sustainable assistance to the household. This project also aims to allow Oxfam to generate data to look deeper into more effective, efficient and sustainable response options to Syrian refugee and Lebanese poverty through community based approaches and support to SDCs through a strengthened and responsive social protection system. The project will compare targeting methodologies and vulnerability criteria between Lebanese and Syrian refugee households living in the same communities to provide analysis on how responses can become more harmonized as well as tailored to each group. Due to the economic and competitive pressures on both poor Lebanese and Syrian refugees, harmonized community based poverty reduction interventions targeting both groups are essential to reduce poverty within communities and to maintain social stability in this context of protracted crisis. Overall objective This evaluation aims to assess the impact of the TCA project on vulnerable Lebanese and Syrian refugee households experiencing a socio-economic shock, to inform the country programme of how the project design can be improved and potentially scaled up as well as to contribute to the wider humanitarian response analysis on temporary cash as a modality in addressing poverty among refugee communities as well as issues of structural poverty in Lebanon through learning from this pilot project. The primary stakeholders for the evaluation report are the Oxfam country programme in Lebanon with a particular focus on the Economic Justice, Protection and Policy teams, but also the WASH sector for the elements of programme integration. Externally, the evaluation report will be shared with the Ministry of Social Affairs (MoSA) and the National Poverty Targeting Programme (NPTP) to help inform their social protection work. It will also be shared with the Basic Assistance sector, other cash actors and donors to further the discussion on vulnerability, targeting and poverty alleviation responses in a complex and protracted crisis. 3 Peace building in Lebanon, Tripoli Special Edition, UNDP, Poverty in Tripoli, ESCWA, Lebanese Centre for Research and Consulting, Al-Monitor, Tripoli s Poverty Hampers Development, Peace building in Lebanon, Tripoli Special Edition, UNDP, In most cases, cash was provided within 4 to 5 days on average. Cases that needed further follow up took longer (7 to 10 days). 2 P a g e

3 This evaluation seeks to explore three levels: programmatic impact, programme development and learning. The programmatic impact level will aim to understand how the Temporary Cash Assistance project impacted targeted households to meet the intended objective of allowing beneficiaries to meet their basic needs, maintain their standard of living and not increase negative coping strategies during the socio-economic shock, including being able to avoid negative protection responses. Analysis will be disaggregated to have a more detailed understanding of the impact on beneficiaries, especially vulnerable groups such as female headed households, households with sick or chronically ill members and unregistered refugees. The evaluation will also explore the relevance of the design, identification approach and targeting criteria. Based on the above findings, the second level will provide recommendations for improvements to the design (including possible redesign and other cash modalities) of the TCA project and to guide a possible expansion or scale up both in terms of beneficiary numbers and geographical coverage. Potential linkages between Emergency Cash Assistance (ECA), TCA and other types of cash assistance will be explored to understand how different approaches could be joined up as part of an improved and flexible cash modality to provide more comprehensive support to the community. These linkages also need to take into account how cash assistance fits within the national social protection system in Lebanon and how it can expand further in that direction to better support poor Lebanese households. Finally, the learning components will look at the targeting approach in comparison to the basic assistance sector desk formula to see how the TCA methodology can work in complement by using a qualitative approach and by using a community based approach as an entry point for the identification of beneficiaries and qualitative targeting criteria. Beneficiary profiles will also be explored to provide data on which households were found to meet the vulnerability criteria but were found by the desk formula to not be severely vulnerable. This can provide some information on the profiles of households that may fall through the cracks of the desk formula. In addition, the targeting criteria and approaches of the other cash work we do as Oxfam, such as ECA, should be analysed to see how/if it makes sense to bring them together into one more flexible and effective response. The project will also compare vulnerability criteria between Lebanese and Syrian refugee households to analyse how the TCA project could contribute to a more harmonised, better quality and sustainable approach to poverty reduction in Lebanon for all vulnerable households in need. This learning will support Oxfam to see where it can add value in terms of supporting alternative identification and targeting methodologies, especially working through SDCs and the NPTP to provide cash assistance as part of a larger and more sustainable social protection mechanism. Scope of work The first component will focus on the household level impact (spending, coping strategies) using existing baseline/endline data and reports, household interviews and/or disaggregated focus group discussions among the 300 beneficiaries in Tripoli, team member interviews as well as additional information from the second extension phase of the project. The second level will build on analysis from the first and will be complemented with secondary research 9 and key informant interviews to understand how the project can be developed and scaled up as well as the learning questions. The questions below will be refined and most likely reduced in consultation with the selected consultant. 9 Examples of secondary data include: 2016 VaSYR, SMEB review, LCC Impact Assessment, LCC study on Cash and Gender in Lebanon, Oxfam ECA analysis report 3 P a g e

4 Specific Objectives and expected outputs 1) To understand how the provision of temporary cash assistance has impacted on the beneficiary household s ability to meet their basic needs, their use of negative coping strategies and ability to maintain their standard of living during the shock. The evaluation should investigate to what extent the temporary cash assistance was able to meet its intended objectives. Within this, several sub areas will be explored as per Oxfam s Policy on Programme Evaluation such as how relevant the project design and targeting criteria is in relation to the context and needs of the target population and the effectiveness of the project to meet its objectives. The evaluation will also explore if the project led to any unintended positive or negative impacts at the household and community level, including any protection risks. The following key questions should be answered as part of this project evaluation: - To what extent was the temporary cash assistance project (cash + referrals) effective in meeting its intended objectives (meeting basic needs, coping strategies, maintaining standard of living)? -Are there indications that TCA impacted on protection results? -On what basis were households excluded from the project and was this done consistently? -How do households who received TCA compare with households experiencing a socio-economic shock but did not receive cash assistance? -To what extent is TCA paired with referrals to support services (livelihoods, protection and psycho-social support) an effective means of supporting households to recover from the shock in the Lebanon context? -To what extent is the project s design relevant to the specific context (refugee/host, urban) and population needs? -Was the identification process and targeting criteria appropriate to select the intended households (vulnerability + shock)? -To what extent is the assistance provided adequate in terms of the amount of money provided (enough money for households to meet their basic needs in combination with their own resources?) and duration (long enough time for HHs to find alternative solutions to the lack of income due to their shock?) to help households recover (return to normal state) after the shock? -What evidence is available regarding the different impacts of TCA on households, specifically those that are disabled, female headed households, facing health crises and without work? For which profiles did TCA have the greatest or least impact? -Did the project have any unintended positive or negative impacts at the household or community level, including any protection issues? 2) To inform the future design and scale up of Oxfam s cash programme in Lebanon Building on the first objective, the second component of the evaluation aims to provide recommendations to Oxfam on how the TCA project can be taken forward. This will include improvements to the design to increase impact, cost-efficiency, accountability, and to consider options to better integrate TCA with Oxfam s other programmes such as livelihoods, protection and WASH. The consultant will also advise Oxfam on how cash programming in Lebanon can be scaled up over time to reach a larger population and geographical area, including within informal tented settlements and periurban areas. The following key questions should be answered as part of this project evaluation: - What adjustments to the project should be considered by Oxfam to: -increase project impact (looking at cash and referrals) -increase costs efficiency -work better for beneficiaries (more convenient) -improve accountability mechanisms -better integration with other Oxfam sectors 4 P a g e

5 - Feasibility to scale up the project in terms of numbers and a larger geographical area. If yes, under what conditions or with what changes to the methodology? - What could a scale up of the project look like? This question should look at scale up into informal tented settlements and peri-urban areas in terms of set up, targeting and identification. -What are the potential linkages between Emergency Cash Assistance (ECA), TCA and other cash to be better integrated as part of an improved cash modality? -How can Oxfam more closely engage with SDCs and the NPTP to support the vulnerable Lebanese in the community? Is there space for support to Syrian refugees through SDCs? -Is the project cost effective (VfM) compared to other types of cash assistance (MCAP/PCAP)? -Was the targeting approach (working with Lebanese households through government institutions (SDCs/NPTP lists) and community based targeting for refugees) an effective approach to identify and target households for TCA? -How can technology be better utilised to improve project outcomes monitoring, evaluation, tracking provision of services? - How can TCA be imbedded into the Lebanese social protection system to influence future poverty reduction strategies for Lebanese and other vulnerable groups (Syrian but also Palestinian refugees)? 3) Capture learning from the implementation of the pilot project Finally, the third objective will focus on what can be learned from the implementation of the pilot project and how this can contribute to a better understanding of response options to address the structural causes of poverty in Lebanon. This learning will support Oxfam to see where it can add value in terms of supporting qualitative and community based approaches to effectively identify and target households in dire need of assistance to meet their basic needs. First it will look at the TCA project as a complementary methodology to MCAP in Lebanon to understand to what extent is can provide an effective, cost- efficient, accountable, and community based assistance to those in need. This component will look at questions around beneficiary identification, provision of cash, and accountability systems and will attempt to infer if there is an added value in implementing an alternative approach outside of the current MCAP methodology endorsed by the Basic Assistance sector and how Oxfam can further contribute to growth in this area. In addition, the approach TCA used to target households will be compared to the Basic Assistance desk formula to understand if the qualitative approach used provided a useful and more accountable alternative to selecting households for cash assistance and if there is an added value to also using the approach, for example to location households missed by the desk formula (eg unregistered, deregistered, major life change). The project will also compare vulnerability profiles between Lebanese and Syrian refugee households to analyse how the TCA project could contribute to a more harmonised, better quality and sustainable approach to poverty reduction in Lebanon for all vulnerable households and be imbedded in a strengthened social protection system. This learning will also help feed in to sector understanding of different ways to support households to be more financially stable, as well as how integration with existing social protection mechanisms can support poverty alleviation and offer solutions for scalability in case of future crises. The following key questions should be answered as part of this project evaluation: -Is there an added value to Oxfam s TCA approach and if so, how can it be bolstered - specifically looking at community engagement, cost-efficiency, accountability, and finding those most in need? -How does the TCA approach compare or complement the desk formula? Specifically looking at targeting criteria, identification, cost-effectiveness, accountability and how the assistance was provided? 5 P a g e

6 -Is there potential for Oxfam to support the harmonisation of vulnerability profiles of Lebanese and Syrian refugee households to streamline targeting criteria to contribute to the creation of a better quality, inclusive and sustainable social protection system in Lebanon? What are the entry points?-how can this project feed into response options for poverty reduction that can promote community engagement and that sits within SDCs and the NPTP? -How does this project sit within the current sector response and donor steer, is their room or interest, appetite for funding? Expected deliverables 1. An agreed evaluation plan outlining the approach and methodology aligned with the overall and specific objectives. This will be reviewed by Oxfam s technical advisers (in country / global) for final approval. 2. Draft report of the evaluation: The Consultant is responsible for submitting a draft report in English (electronic copy) within 8 days after completion of the data gathering. The feedback will be provided by Oxfam within maximum two (2) working weeks after the submission of the draft report and will also include the raw data. 3. Final evaluation report, of approximately 30 pages (excluding annexes), of publishable quality with a stand-alone executive summary of no more than 3 pages (in English). The consultant is expected to deliver the final evaluation report within 5 days following the date of receiving feedback. It will include changes/modifications, agreed between Oxfam and the consultant. Main report sections are as follows: o Executive Summary o Table of Contents o Introduction o Evaluation Findings/answered questions o Conclusion and lessons learned o Actionable recommendations for Oxfam and partners The report shall systematically answer the key evaluation questions and fairly and clearly represent the views of different stakeholders, and give clear conclusions substantiated by the available evidence. In addition, the final report should contain the following annexes, as well as any other relevant material: o Initial and final Terms of Reference for the evaluation o Data collection tools o Itinerary and final timetable o List of persons interviewed o List of documents reviewed 4. Deliver a presentation of preliminary findings for stakeholders (Oxfam + partners); The methodology is expected to include, but does not have to be limited to: - Desk review of project documentation (i.e. project proposal, theory of change, project logframe, baseline and endline study, monitoring data, produced documents and reports, as well as relevant context analysis and updates) - Interviews / Meetings with: o Oxfam, partner staff and main stakeholders involved in and contributing to the project s implementation o Other relevant key stakeholders (e.g. MoSA, Basic Assistance sector lead, National Poverty Targeting Programme, Lebanon Cash Consortium, Social protection leads (ILO, UNICEF, FAO) Donors). - Post-Project monitoring survey o Comparison of impact should be made between different groups: 6 P a g e

7 7 P a g e Female headed households Registered/Not registered refugees Severely vulnerable/not severely vulnerable refugees (desk formula) Syrian refugees/lebanese HHs NPTP beneficiary/not Disabled/chronically ill family member Type of shock: short-term (e.g. mild accident/job loss) and long term (e.g. death of breadwinner, long term illness) Key tasks Task 1: Inception Have an inception meeting with Oxfam and partners to clarify on the expectations from the evaluation and have a mutual understanding before the evaluation begins. Task 2: Literature / desk review: Review of existing project documents, sector guidelines and literature to develop a solid contextual understanding of the humanitarian situation, poverty dynamics and humanitarian cash assistance in Lebanon. In addition, also to review the baseline, endline and post distribution monitoring results, reflection meeting report as well as documented feedback from those involved in the project. Task 3: Develop detailed methodology and approach to undertake the evaluation (with a strong focus on disaggregated data) Based on literature review refine the key questions where required. Develop an evaluation plan to be endorsed by Oxfam and partners. If relevant, train data collectors (Oxfam, partner and/or externally hired) on the methodology used within this study and orientate them on the ground to ensure that the outcomes meet the quality standards Task 3: Data collection, analysis and interpretation The first component will focus on the household level impact using existing data and reports. Complementary data will be collected in the form of household interviews and/or disaggregated focus group discussions, team member interviews as well as additional information from the second extension phase of the project. The second level will build on analysis from the first and will be complemented with secondary research and key informant interviews. Task 4: Reporting, recommendations and presentation Key tasks to including convening a meeting with Oxfam and partner staff to share and validate preliminary evaluation findings. Prepare a draft evaluation report that reflects feedback provided by Oxfam and partners during the abovementioned meeting and integrate feedback on the draft report, and finalization of the evaluation report in close discussion with Oxfam (within 5 weeks from start). Time frame: Activity Minimum days Comment required Literature and Desk review 2 Development of methodology and evaluation plan 3 In country Data collection 10 In country Analysis 4 Feedback to the team & partners 1 In country Report 5 This can be done from abroad Total 25

8 Logistics and reporting The evaluator will report to the Emergency Food Security and Livelihoods Coordinator, with engagement from the MEAL Coordinator Logistics within country will be arranged by Oxfam such as transport to Tripoli Oxfam will arrange translation if required Oxfam is responsible for providing access to relevant project documents and data, and facilitating access to relevant stakeholders and beneficiary groups. Consultant profile Oxfam is looking for a consultant with strong track record in conducting evaluations of cash and social protection programmes. The consultant should have the following background, skills and competencies: Advanced university degree or equivalent in Humanitarian/Development Studies, Social Sciences, and other related fields; At least 7-10 years of relevant experience; Demonstrable experience of producing high-quality, credible evaluations (samples required); Practical experience in the design and implementation of evaluations of cash based programmes in the NGO sector, especially in relation to refugees; Excellent and proven quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis skills, and familiarity with different methodologies for evaluation; Excellent and concise writing and verbal communication skills in English. Arabic is an asset; Relevant geographical experience in the Middle East, ideally including previous work in Lebanon, familiarity with MCAP in Lebanon and working with Syrian refugees; Ability to work with a team under pressure to produce agreed deliverables in a timely manner; The consultant must be flexible, collaborative, innovative and able to make constructive criticism. Expression of interest 1. A cover letter of no more than 1 page introducing the consultant and how the skills and competencies described above are met, with concrete examples. Please also use this cover letter to indicate the applicant s availability for the proposed period; 2. A brief technical proposal (2 pages max) of the proposed process, including: a. Key considerations for this evaluation b. Proposed evaluation methodology c. Timeline for implementation specifying dates 3. A budget (one page max) indicating daily fee (and required number of days), and other costs as outlined above. 4. A CV for the consultant(s), including 3 referees (with addresses) 5. Two examples of reports from previous evaluations/reviews in the sectors of intervention of this project or other relevant areas. Applications should be submitted to Lebanonjobs@oxfam.org.uk with TCA Evaluation Consultancy in the subject line OR Upload the documents to the Oxfam GB s website. Any questions are to be directed to: Rachel Eichholz, REichholz@oxfam.org.uk 8 P a g e