INEQUALITY AND INTERNAL CONFLICT. Syed Mansoob Murshed ISS-Erasmus University & Coventry University, UK

Transcription

1 INEQUALITY AND INTERNAL CONFLICT Syed Mansoob Murshed ISS-Erasmus University & Coventry University, UK 1

2 INTERNAL CONFLICT AND UNDER-DEVELOPMENT This topic has received a great deal of attention recently: Development Community Conflict Perpetuates Poverty. Poverty makes civil war more likely Strategic Studies Community post cold war Failed States Complex Humanitarian Crises: military interventions and refugee influxes 2

3 Ergo Poverty Alleviation State Building 3

4 Causes of Conflict Aristotle s Politics 21 st Century Avariciousness Greed or opportunity State s Incompetence Weak State Capacity Inequality Grievance 4

5 GREED: Collier and associates A Motivation akin to Banditry Desire to control Natural Resource Exports Found not to be robust to different definitions of natural resource dependence or abundance Better at predicting conflict duration Focus should be on lootable resources: oil/gas and alluvial diamonds 5

6 Greed: Poverty-Conflict Trap Nuanced version of greed: Contextualised to where poverty is endemic, because: Poverty makes soldiering a less unattractive livelihood strategy Civil war perpetuates poverty and vice versa 6

7 Weak State Capacity The State s Ability to: Coerce: forcefully deter rebellion Cajole: Provide Security and Public Goods The above require resources; otherwise security and public goods are privatised. Civil war may hamper state fiscal capacity Weak fiscal institutions Reliance on aid and resource rents Low tax/gdp ratio 7

8 Both greed and weak state capacity arguments ignore Grievance producing INEQUALITY and DISCRIMINATION. WHY? Empirical: Data on between group inequality (not just socio-economic class) is hard to come by and therefore ignored. Theoretical: Grievances are infinite, ubiquitous and omnipresent. Rebellion has to be feasible and financially viable. Argued earlier by Charles Tilly as mobilization theory. 8

9 Nature of Inequality Would not matter if there is no uncertainty and a level playing ground for life chances. Good Inequality (of outcome): Human beings are incentivised by rewards and punishments; ergo, too much inequality can discourage effort (not always pecuniary). BAD Inequality: Categorical-Durable Inequalities (Charles Tilly) Inequalities of Opportunity (John Roemer) 9

10 Bad Inequalities are hard to Shift: What is harder to shift? Income Inequality Or an inequality based upon systematic discrimination of a group Inequalities of Opportunity Disadvantaged socio-economic background Employment discrimination: race, religion, ethnicity Political exclusion of certain ethnicities 10

11 Two Non-Mutually exclusive Developments in Economics The Economics of Identity Behavioural Economics 11

12 Individual and Group Identity Individuals identify with groups If their group is disadvantaged even if the individual is not They act according to group norms: In some circumstances errant individuals can be brought back to conformity with group norms, particularly in closely knit poor communities 12

13 Behavioural Economics: An individual s preferences are not exclusively innate, but are a product of life experiences, history and a variety of psycho-social phenomena People dislike ultimata Prefer fairness even if personally worse off 13

14 Conflict and Inequality Individuals may choose to participate in group causes, and even fight. What is salient in this regard? Two concepts: Relative Deprivation (Ted Gurr): individuals who are left behind Horizontal Inequality (Frances Stewart): inequalities between groups based on ethnicity, caste, class, religion Economic dimension Political dimension 14

15 Growth and Inequality Growth can increase both poverty and inequality, as is common now. Although average income rises poverty can rise because it is so unequally distributed. Inequalities of opportunity intensify Growth can reduce poverty but raise inequality Some countries reduce both (Brazil recently) Truly pro-poor growth reduces both inequality and poverty 15

16 Globalisation and Conflict Increased globalisation (more international trade) worsens the distribution of income Policies to foster globalisation (increased inward investment, say) can lead to wage compression Both the above can cause relative deprivation if say the income share of the top 10% rise at the expense of the bottom 40%. 16

17 New Forms of Conflict Mass protest Isolated insurgencies in economically successful democracies like (Maoist insurgencies) in India Rising sectarian violence 17