Executive Summary. MAX Security Solutions Ltd. Office: Back to Table of Contents

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1 October 2016

2 Executive Summary In Europe, the theme of militant-related activity continued to be central in our coverage of the continent with arrests of suspected Islamist militants being recorded throughout. In France, a groups of suspected militants were arrested in relation to a vehicle, containing what appeared to be some of the components to a bomb, which was found near the Notre Dame Cathedral, while later in the month two teenagers were arrested on suspicion of planning militant attacks. At the same time, and despite the new labor laws already being passed, unrest related to the laws was again recorded in Paris. Meanwhile, in Germany, police arrested a 16-year-old Syrian asylum seeker, who was allegedly planning a bomb attack in Cologne. In an unrelated event on the continent, inter-communal tensions in Kosovo between Serbs and Albanians led to an arson attack against a Church in Pristina, as well as a protest over the same church later in the month. In Ukraine, animosity towards Russians led to unruly protests and an arson attack against Russian and pro-russian institutions, while the Donetsk People s Republic and Luhansk People s Republic announced unilateral ceasefires. In the Americas, several notable developments were recorded. For one, FARC and the Colombian government signed a historic peace deal, which is set to be passed following a popular referendum on October 2. Meanwhile, the severe food shortages in Venezuela persisted, leading the Miranda State governor to declare a state of emergency, although this was likely politically motivated. At the same time, the CNE announced that the next stage of the process to recall President Maduro will take place on October 26-28, while announcing other laws that complicate the process and are aimed at preventing a referendum and preventing an early election should a referendum succeed. In Argentina, government austerity measures led to several protests and strikes in the country, as well as the threat for further strikes. In Brazil, former speak of the lower house, Eduardo Cunha, was removed from office by a congressional vote, while the Supreme Court approved of corruption investigations into President Michel Temer, highlighting continued political conflict following the impeachment of former President Rousseff. In Mexico, a large protest was held in Mexico City to express dissatisfaction with Mayor Miguel Mancera, while we anticipate additional demonstrations of this nature. Finally, in the USA, several Islamist attacks were recorded between September 17 and 18, including multiple IED and a stabbing attack claimed by Islamic State. At the same time, the Black Lives Matter protests over perceived police brutality continued following the shooting deaths of African American men. 1 1

3 Global Risk Map/Europe 2 2

4 Global Risk Map/North & South America 3 3

5 The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its link below. ARGENTINA... 5 BRAZIL... 6 COLOMBIA... 7 FRANCE... 8 GERMANY... 9 KOSOVO MEXICO UKRAINE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA VENEZUELA Notable Dates for October

6 ARGENTINA Workers Central Union (CTA) holds rally in Buenos Aires Police disperse protesters in Buenos Aires over gas tariffs Health unions hold strikes to increase wages Assessments & Forecast Economic troubles continue as major union strikes take place throughout country As Argentina s economy continues to stagnate, recording the lowest levels of growth since 2009, major unions, as well as segments of civil society, have continued to protest and strike on a weekly basis pushing to reverse the neo-liberal policies of President Mauricio Macri. In an attempt to enforce an increasingly free-market agenda Macri concluded a 9.3 billion USD deal with holders of Argentina s defaulted debt in April 2016, with the aim of restoring the country s access to credit markets. However, the remedies, although deemed necessary by the political classes, have been poorly received by much of the country s working classes. The devaluation of the peso intensified the country s already-high inflation inherited from previous administrations. The reduction of allegedly unaffordable energy subsidies and an accompanying rise in utility bills further increased the cost of living for consumers, all alongside an unemployment rate of 9.3% and an economy in recession. Throughout the month of September union-organized protests brought tens of thousands of demonstrators onto the streets of Buenos Aires, as well as other cities, demanding an end to the economic reforms and to increase wages while decreasing living costs. Notably, following more than 11,000 public sector workers going on strike on September 27 to protest the 154,000 state and private sector job losses since January, the General Confederation of Labor of the Republic of Argentina (CGT), the largest and most historically important labor union in the country, has promised a 24- hour strike in October. However, as of September 30 CGT agreed with Macri s government to a 10-day grace period in which they will not strike, to allow the government to formulate a response to the problems. The coming months will likely not see sufficient improvement in Argentina s economic situation for the current concerns to be solved with any kind of ease. In that regard, labor unions and Macri s administration will continue to be at odds over the President s economic goals and the short term downfalls for much of the public and private sector workers. With that in mind, we assess that the major protests will continue and even intensify, as the number of people affected by the aforementioned financial policies increases, without a strong consensus on the correct model to spark the economy back into healthy growth. Furthermore, whether or not Macri s policies will be eventually beneficial for the country, the current situation is likely to remain tense for a number of months and likely years. In that regard, more and larger protests should be expected in the near and mid-terms. 5 5

7 BRAZIL NOTABLE DATES Former speaker of the lower house, Eduardo Cunha, removed from office by congressional vote Paralympic Games take place in Rio de Janeiro without major security incident Supreme Court approves corruption investigations into President Michel Temer Assessments & Forecast Eduardo Cunha removed from office This political development took place less than two weeks after the impeachment of former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, a cause for which Cunha was one of the principal supporters. In this context, Cunha s removal was likely the result of political backlash particularly from members of congress belonging to Rousseff s Worker s Party (PT). Moreover, given the nature of the corruption charges against Cunha, this development marked an escalation in overall corruption-related probes and has led to investigations into the corruption records of other PMDB members, including the current President Michel Temer, who may have links to Cunha s affairs. With this in mind, we assess that calls for the removal of other members of congress charged with corruption are likely to take place in the coming weeks, and demonstrations for and against the PMDB and PT are likely to take place in the same period. Michel Temer under investigation for corruption The allegations and subsequent investigations against Temer follow the indictment of former House speaker and Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) leader Eduardo Cunha in the money laundering and corruption probe related to Petrobras, consequently leading to his ouster on September 12. With that in mind, coupled with the growing discontent against President Temer and his recently imposed austerity measures, the September 23 decision is liable to act as a catalyst for further antigovernment sentiments and may influence October 2 municipal elections. In this context, although Temer is unlikely to be directly indicted due to the inherent political nature of the investigation, investigations are likely to lead to protests calling for his ouster across major cities, including in Brasilia and Sao Paulo. Such demonstrations will likely intensify leading up to the October 2 elections. 6 6

8 COLOMBIA NOTABLE DATES FARC hints at halting demobilization until ratification of amnesty law United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) supports peace deal with FARC Colombian President, FARC leader sign peace agreement in Cartagena Assessments & Forecast Colombian government signs historic peace agreement with Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), pending referendum on October 2 In September, Colombia witnessed one of the more important events in its history, with the signing of a peace agreement between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) culminating more than 50 years of violence, which left more than 250,000 people killed and millions of citizens displaced. While the peace accord signed in the coastal town of Cartagena is of transcendental importance, the peace agreement must be ratified by the Colombian people through a national referendum slated to take place on October 2. Many voices within Colombian civil society and political spheres have expressed their opposition to the peace deal, most notably hawkish former President Alvaro Uribe, who has publicly advocated against the ratification, urging Colombians not to allow impunity for war criminals granted by the above-mentioned deal. In spite of the opposition voices, we assess that the accord is likely to be approved by the Colombian people, given the perceived willingness of FARC to embrace peace and a political rather than violent path to achieve its goals. This assessment is further supported by the aforementioned endorsement by AUC, a formerdemobilized right wing paramilitary group to the peace deal, which urged the Colombian people to ratify the accord. If the referendum is approved, the Colombian government will face the challenge of providing sufficient incentives through its demobilization and reintegration programs to lure former rebels into society and to not join other rebel groups, such as the ELN. Meanwhile, despite the deal, there continues to be a threat from the other rebel groups, who may take advantage of the vacuum. 7 7

9 FRANCE Vehicle containing gas cylinders and three cans of diesel fuel discovered near to Notre Dame Cathedral Suspected militants, including several women, apprehended in connection with vehicle discovered on September 3 Labor unions stage protests over new labor laws, culminating in clashes with security forces in Paris Reports emerge of two teenagers arrested in Nice on suspicion of planning acts of militancy Assessments & Forecast Militant attacks thwarted, suspects arrested Several notable arrests of suspected militants took place in France over the past month in connection with both thwarted acts of militancy, as well as imminent attacks, highlighting not only the enduring risk of militant activity that the country faces, but also underscore several notable aspects of the threat. Firstly, whilst the vehicle did not contain a detonator, and those behind it seemed inexperienced, it nevertheless demonstrates the potential for radicalized individuals to employ relatively low-tech modi operandi with significant potential impact which may be difficult for security forces to detect prior to the incident itself. Secondly, the range of individuals arrested over the month demonstrates the scope for self-radicalization, and that domestic militant threats are not necessarily limited by age, gender or citizenship. Finally, the arrest of a suspected militant in Brussels, who purportedly had links with sympathizers in France, serves to underscore the transnational nature of the threat. Controversial labor law continues to inspire protests The conduct of fresh protests on September 15 showcased enduring discontent over the controversial labor laws passed in July. This was highlighted not only in the scope of the event, which reportedly drew approximately 13,000 participants in Paris and some 78,000 nationwide, according to police estimates, but also by the unrest witnessed in the capital, during which at least 12 people were injured and over 30 arrested. With this said, the turnout remains lower than the rallies staged six months ago, and comes as part of an overall trend of declining participation. Furthermore, given the political capital expended in passing the law, it is unlikely to be amended in the coming months. Thus, whilst protests demonstrate the presence of enduring negative sentiment towards the reforms, thus highlighting the potential for additional protests, such events are likely to become increasingly infrequent, and draw increasingly fewer protesters. 8 8

10 GERMANY NOTABLE DATES Police disperses brawl between asylum seekers and far-right residents in Saxon town of Bautzen Police arrests 16-years old Syrian asylum seeker planning nail bomb attack in Cologne Assessments & Forecast Brawl broken up in Bautzen The September 14 clashes come amidst persistent tensions between asylum seekers and far-right residents in Bautzen, as highlighted by the February 2016 arson attack destroying a building slated to be used as refugee home. That said, the incident remains notable given the scope of the hostilities, which lasted for more than an hour. In this context, while a portion of the small group of minor asylum seekers, which had reportedly instigated the brawl, attacked police forces with bottles, some far-right residents chased the refugees back to their shelter and reportedly prevented an ambulance from attending to an injured migrant. With this in mind, the development continues to highlight the elevated potential for unrest between far-right residents and asylum seekers, particularly in eastern Germany. In this context, while local authorities transferred four minor asylum seekers, who had instigated the brawl, to other municipalities and implemented a four-day long curfew on minor asylum seekers in Bautzen, further hostilities between the parties will likely be witnessed in the city given that the antagonism between both sides remains unresolved. Furthermore, further acts of far-right violence directed against asylum seekers, such as attacks being directed against refugee homes, are liable to be recorded across the country over the coming weeks and months given the persistent opposition of far-right elements to the German government s refugee policy. Islamic State-inspired militant arrested in Cologne The development follows the September 13 arrest of three Syrian IS affiliates at refugee homes in the federal states of Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein. That said, while there were no indications of an imminent attack in the latter arrest raid, the September 20 incident remains notable given that the arrestee had reportedly been instructed by an IS recruiter via online chat to place a nail bomb in a garbage can and detonate it. In this context, as highlighted by the precedent July 24 IS-inspired suicide attack in Ansbach, the development highlights the persistent efforts of the Sunni jihadist militant group to carry out or encourage militant attacks on German soil. While the fact that the arrest was made ahead of the materialization of any attack highlights the persistent efforts of German intelligence services to mitigate the risk for militancy by monitoring potential assailants, they remain constrained by the known challenges in preventing lone-wolf attacks, which are often inspired by Islamist propaganda disseminated online. Furthermore, it remains likely that IS has been able to capitalize on the significant influx of refugees into Germany by transferring a number of its militants into the country, which are not yet included on any intelligence watch list. With this in mind, the risk for further Islamist militant attacks targeting elements within Germany over the coming weeks and months exists. 9 9

11 KOSOVO Kosovo PM postpones Parliament s contested border vote Arson attack targets unfinished Serbian Church in Pristina Kosovar Albanian students group holds protest against presence of same Pristina church Assessments & Forecast Kosovo postpones contested Montenegro border vote The decision by Prime Minister (PM) Isa Mustafa to postpone the vote indefinitely was taken as hundreds of anti-government activists gathered near parliament on September 1, threatening to storm the facility if the law passed. While the proposal was originally agreed upon by Pristina and Podgorica in 2015, the issue set off nationwide opposition-led protests, which alleged that the agreement would see the transfer of over 8,000 hectares of land to Montenegro. On September 8, Montenegrin PM Milo Djukanovic indicated that while no new talks have been launched, he would like to see the issue resolved in a democratic manner. Meanwhile, in neighboring Albania on September 21, two leaders of Kosovo's Vetevendosje Movement rallied several hundred supporters in Tirana, declaring that the campaign against ratification of the Kosovo-Montenegro border deal would continue. The decision to postpone the vote was likely an attempt to mitigate any untoward incidents of violence in the immediate term. While both the vote s postponement and PM Djukanovic s conciliatory statements indicate success for Vetevendosje in preventing demarcation; the government will likely attempt to bring the bill back after heightened sensitivities over the issue subside. With that being said, opposition elements will likely continue to actively campaign against the bill despite its postponement, as they attempt to keep the issue on the national conscious and further capitalize on the polarizing nature of the issue. Attacks targeting Serbian churches highlight increasing tensions While this was the first arson attack against the church, it was vandalized a number of times since construction began in Further, given the relatively large crowd of students that participated in the September 18 sit-in at the same church, the incidents highlight trends of polarization among Kosovar youth in regards to the country s Serbian minority. While the student group that organized the protest, Study Cirtic Action, dismissed that it was influenced by any political party, the group often aligns with Vetevendosje on contentious local and national issues. Pristina University and the Serbian Orthodox Church are involved in an ongoing court case over the ownership of the land on which the building stands. While the case was appealed in March 2016, given that it is not considered an urgent case, no date has yet been set for hearings to start. In light of the seemingly elevated tensions, the decision not to expedite the appeal may have been an attempt to allow raised emotions over the issue to subside. However, given the recent large-scale political mobilization over a variety of Serbian and territorial-related international disputes by opposition groups, particularly Vetevendosje, it remains possible the church will become an increasingly large part of the group s agenda, particularly as a date for the cases appeal is set

12 MEXICO Large demonstration held in Mexico City to denounce performance of city s mayor Two Catholic priests abducted, killed in Veracruz State s Poza Rica city Fatal shootout between police, armed assailants in Michoacan State s Morelia Assessments & Forecast Protest against Mexico City Mayor This large-scale protest highlights the growing disaffection with Mayor Miguel Angel Mancera in Mexico City, as evidenced by the significant turnout at the demonstration, as well as the recent decline in approval ratings. While the mayor has attempted to highlight perceived progress made by his government to the electorate, his association with President Enrique Pena Nieto, also currently viewed as widely unpopular by large segments of the general population, is liable to negate these efforts. With this in mind, and in light of growing dissatisfaction within Mexico City in terms of the political environment, further protests against Mancera and his administration are liable be recorded in the coming weeks and months, featuring calls for his removal. Moreover, in light of the antigovernment sentiments of such demonstrations, the potential for unrest unfolding at such protests does exist. Killing of Catholic Priests These killings, as highlighted by the incident on September 19, come amidst a notable and relative rise in violence against Catholic priests in Mexico since As the victims worked in a low-income community, they were likely targeted given that priests are viewed as socially influential, and often speak out against human rights abuses perpetrated by drug gangs. Thus, the priests are viewed as detrimental to the cartels efforts in exploiting socio-economic hardships in rural areas to facilitate drug trafficking. With this in mind, priests, as well as other public and religious figures, are liable to be targeted in the coming weeks by such criminal elements in the region. Fatal shootout in Michoacan State Despite sparse details regarding the assailants affiliations, the incident is reflective of the high level of drug-associated violence in Michoacan State, including the capital of Morelia. While the police were likely responding to the presence of the assailants and the risk that they posed, the shootout broadly reflects patterns of violence emanating from authorities crackdown against drug cartels in the state and rivalries between such groups. Taken as a whole, similar instances of violence are likely to be witnessed across Michoacan state, particularly in Morelia, over the coming weeks and months. In light of this threat, further intensified security measures throughout the region can likely be anticipated

13 UKRAINE NOTABLE DATES Nationalists target pro- Russian media outfit in Kiev with tire fires, smoke grenades. Luhansk separatist group announces unilateral ceasefire. Donetsk separatist group announces unilateral ceasefire. Protesters cause unrest at Russian parliamentary polling sites in Kiev, Odessa. Assessments Nationalist attacks target Russian sites in Ukraine The spate of nationalist attacks targeting pro-russian media houses and the Russian embassy and consulate in Kiev and Odessa, respectively, reflects the deepening anti- Russian sentiment among a significant portion of Ukrainians. The continuing failure of Ukraine, Russia, and pro-russian rebels to reach a lasting ceasefire agreement, as well as the ongoing Russian occupation of Crimea, means that this animosity will remain potent for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the fact that the attacks come amid a lull in overt fighting in eastern Ukraine suggests it is reflective of deeper attitudes among segments of the Ukrainian populace. Although Ukrainian police officers did make arrests in connection with the incidents on September 4 and 18, governmental statements continue to characterize the incidents as minor, in contrast to Russian complaints. The Ukrainian government is unlikely to significantly condemn similar incidents in the future, given the political optics and the nationalists powerful parliamentary interests. In light of this, similar incidents are likely to proliferate in the near future near Russian government symbols in Kiev and other major cities, and are liable to feature localized unrest. Unilateral ceasefires declared by pro-russian rebels The announcement by a Donetsk People s Republic Separatist group of a unilateral ceasefire comes after the Luhansk People s Republic made a similar declaration on September 12 and all sides agreed to an uneasy truce on September 1. The moves likely come in deference to Ukrainian President Poroshenko s statements this month that Kiev would soon pursue constitutional amendments granting eastern regions more political autonomy. However, given that ceasefires have been routinely broken in this conflict and that this one comes out of political utility, these unilateral ceasefires are unlikely to morph into a lasting resolution to the conflict, especially if the constitutional amendment process falters in parliament or if either side feels provoked by the Ukrainian government or military. Moreover, there is reason to believe that fighting in eastern Ukraine and covert Russian involvement in the conflict could intensify over the weeks and months to come. This is in large part due to the US presidential election and the corresponding lame-duck administration, which could be utilized by belligerent actors to reinforce positions without incurring a sustained US response

14 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA IS-linked media claims its militant carried out Minnesota stabbing Multiple explosive devices discovered, detonated in New Jersey, New York Protests in Charlotte, North Carolina following shooting of black male by police Assessments & Forecast Incidents in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota linked to jihadist-inspired militancy This includes the explosives devices discovered and detonated in New York and New Jersey, which were connected to a man inspired by jihadist ideology, and a stabbing at a Minnesota mall, which IS-linked media claimed was carried out by its militant. In this context, such incidents continue to underscore an underlying threat of militancy within the US, largely stemming from IS-inspired lone-wolf militants, and typically against civilian targets in major population centers in the country. In light of this threat, coupled with heightened concerns emanating from American authorities regarding the threat of such militancy materializing in the country, heightened security measures accompanied with further arrests in major cities remain likely over the coming month. Regardless, such attacks as already witnessed may inspire radicalized individuals in the US to attempt further low-intensity attacks. Protests, unrest recorded in Charlotte, North Carolina following shooting of black male by police The protests involved localized incidents of vandalism, forcible dispersals by police, and the wounding of at least 12 police officers due to clashes with demonstrators in the city, thus underscoring the risk of violence emanating from such events. Moreover, the incidents follow a trend of elevated sensitivities surrounding the alleged police brutality targeting the African American community throughout the United States. With this in mind, while details behind the killing of the man in Charlotte have still not been fully released, the reaction by the local community within the city represents the typical response to such incidents in the country, as further witnessed by demonstrations following a shooting of an unarmed black man in Tulsa, Oklahoma on September 20. With this in mind, in light of continuing heightened sensitivities from the African American community regarding these incidents, we assess that further Black Lives Matter protests remain likely in cities such as Charlotte and Tulsa, and elsewhere throughout the country in the coming weeks. Additionally, as precedent suggests, such protests carry the potential to devolve into unrest, including localized scuffles between police and protesters, as well as forcible dispersals by law enforcement if demonstrations grow too big or violent. Claim by IS-linked news agency for Minnesota Stabbing 13 13

15 VENEZUELA NOTABLE DATES Miranda State Governor declares state of food emergency CNE announces next stage of recall process for October Armed forces arrest nearly 400 people for alleged food smuggling Opposition calls for national protest on October 12 against CNE s decision Assessments & Forecast events liable to transpire During the month of September, the severe economic crisis in Venezuela, and the associated ongoing food scarcity persisted throughout the nation. President Maduro designated the Army to control the food production and distribution, however, this measure has not thwarted the rampant black market; conversely, as the crisis persists and worsens, more people have been forced to acquire their essential goods in the informal economy, where prices are prohibitively high for low income Venezuelans. In this regard, as the food scarcity persist, further violence directly linked to food shortages is likely to be recorded in the coming weeks. Additionally, and in relation to the overall economic situation in the country, despite already high levels of crime in recent years, we assess that crime rates will likely continue to climb over the coming months. administration delays recall referendum After months of expectations, the National Electoral Council (NEC) has set the next stage of the recall process for October Thus, this schedule will secure President Maduro s party in power even if he is ousted in an eventual vote, as if the vote takes place later than January 10, there will not be an early election if Maduro is ousted, and instead his vice president will take power. This setback is coupled by the CNEs ruling that the opposition has to get more than 20 percent of the signatures in each state in October instead of 20 percent overall. As a result, opposition s grievances vis-vis the government have visibly increased. In this regard, and under the continuous suspicion of the CNE s bias in favor of the administration, opposition protests aimed to expedite the process are liable to increase. As October draws closer, the risk of unrest related to the abovementioned demonstrations is also likely to increase

16 Notable Dates for October 2016 Brazil Back to portion Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation October 2 First round of municipal elections Municipal elections are slated to take place on this day in municipalities across the country including major cities like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. October 12 Our Lady of Aparecida Day Our Lady of Aparecida Day is a religious holiday in honor of Brazil s patron saint, with government offices, banks and most private businesses slated to be closed. Celebrations, including public speeches and cultural performances, are held across major Brazilian cities. October 30 Second round of municipal elections The second round of municipal elections will be held between the top two candidates from the first round of elections. Colombia Back to portion Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation October 17 Columbus Day Columbus Day commemorates the date of arrival of the Spanish expedition and the first encounters between Europeans and Native Americans. The date is marked as a public holiday, therefore public offices and most private businesses are slated to be closed. Germany Back to portion Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation October 3 German Unity Day German Unity Day is the national holiday in Germany, with government offices, banks and most private businesses slated to be closed. Celebrations, including public speeches and cultural performances, are held across major German cities. Ukraine Back to portion Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation October 14 Defender of Ukraine Day Defender of Ukraine Day is a public holiday in Ukraine and will see government offices and many private businesses closed. Public celebrations in major Ukrainian cities are also planned. Venezuela Back to portion 15 15

17 Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation October 12 Indigenous Resistance Day, Anti-Indigenous Resistance Day commemorates the Government Protests date of arrival of the Spanish expedition and the first encounters between Europeans and Native Americans. Also commemorating the latter s resistance against the invasion from the old world. The date is marked as a public holiday, therefore public offices and most private businesses are slated to be closed. At the same time, calls from the opposition for mass protests against the government s delay of a vote to hold a referendum are slated for this day and liable to result in significant levels of unrest, including clashes with security forces, especially in Caracas

18 Have additional questions? Contact us at or us at DISCLAIMER: Please note that any views and/or opinions and/or assessment and/or recommendations presented in this text are solely those of Max Security. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this text. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. Max Security Solutions accepts no liability for (i) the contents of this text/report being correct, complete or up to date; (ii) consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result and/or on the basis of such contents. Copyright Max Security 17 17

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