Brazil: predicting the past remembering the future US elections and Brazil
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1 Brazil: predicting the past remembering the future US elections and Brazil Alexandre Barros, Ph.D. Early Warning BACCF 23 August 2012 Miami
2 Thank you
3 It lasts only 30 minutes and it doesn t hurt
4 Where is the world crisis going?
5 The Future will always be like the past unless it is different
6 Brazil and US curves very similar with a 60 years lag used to be 90 years Brazil is, roughly, where the US was after WWII, within proportions
7 Brazil and US relations Little change with Republicans & Democrats Brazil not priority under either party Most issues technical Brazil away from major US conflict areas Drug question moving to flexibilization?
8 Inflation & credit bubble? World Cup & Olympics Overflow: USA, Europe, China?
9 Early Warning - Brasília - (61)
10 Taxes hurt the poor
11 Class C (53%) urban voters already more than the sum of classes A + B Risks of the upward curve Frustration of emerging middle class Brazil now blacker the whiter
12 Average age of Brazilian is going up World = 26 years
13 Demographic News Demográficas
14
15
16 And now, from 4am to7am, Complexo do Alemão Estadão 2011/07/31
17 Education looking backwards
18 Economic Growth pushes education...not the other way around.
19 And now, 4am-7am, Favelas Complexo do Alemão Estadão 2011/07/31
20 Foreign Relations South America North America Africa Middle East Iran and Turkey China
21 Brazil s Foreign Relations All neighbors except Chile and Ecuador Priority Africa Middle East Iran and Turkey Tyrants go, countries stay No matter what, Brazil will have to live with its neighbors
22 North America Good relations Important trade and investment Good military relations...within limits Aircraft: fighters and trainers How to deal with South America? No involvement on US crusades Middle East is none of Brazil s business Iran and Turkey
23 Africa Brazil has African roots Is Brazil white? Closeness Proximity of geological oil resources Good investment opportunity Long term relationship They need expertise Brazil has: construction
24 China: news on the Eastern front? Biggest commercial partner: whose is it not? Good investment opportunity Long term relationship Chinese expertise innovation & manufacturing
25 Reforms Labor laws Professional Regulations Patents Human power Importation Fiscal reform
26 The poor made money......and they want more......of everything!
27 Labor Laws Costs and Flexibility The Economist 2012/ 05/26 Early Warning: Oportunidade & Risco Político / Políticas Públicas - Brasília: (61)
28 US Demographics & Technology Crisis slows down population growth US will need immigrants desperately People are not coming
29 US Demographics & Technology I m sorry Mr. President, but many of these jobs will not return to the US (Steve Jobs) Robotization Work without workers (NYT ) Tesla
30 New Conservative Voters It s the economy! End of Inflation Access to credit Property to preserve Low inflation unmasked high taxes
31 60 years in Brazil A company which has been in Brazil for more than half a century and has seen it all: presidential suicide, resignation, coup, impeachment, dictatorship... Brian Smith, President of Coca Cola, apud Miriam Leitão, O GLOBO, 29 July 2005
32 Since the Real Plan (1994) 5 external crises 2 explosions of exchange rate 1 banking crisis Several political scandals The soda market doubled (2005) Brazilians drank 6 billion liters of soda now they drink 12 billion one day [crises end] and Brazil will continue to be an excellent market» Brian Smith, President Coca Cola Brasil, apud Miriam Leitão, O GLOBO, 29 July 2005
33 Thank You The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously.
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