South Africa s Spatial Future. Prof Ivan Turok HSRC
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1 South Africa s Spatial Future Prof Ivan Turok HSRC
2 Outline 1. Regional inequality Patterns and trends Driving forces Responses 2. Metropolitan inequality Patterns and trends Driving forces Responses
3 Regional patterns: Personal income tax generated
4 Index Points (1995: base year) Trends in regional inequality (GDP) Gauteng KwaZulu-Natal Western Cape Eastern Cape Mpumalanga Limpopo North West Free State Northern Cape Average
5 Percent (%) 30,0 Ran out of money to buy food? 25,0 20,0 15,0 26,7 10,0 5,0 15,6 8,6 19,6 11,2 17,1 19,8 11,7 0,0 Metro Other uban Rural Total Past year 5+ days in last month Twice as many people report having run out of money to buy food in rural areas compared with in the cities. Sources: CS 2016, own estimates
6 Percent (%) Highest Educational Attainment 11,0 16,4 27,9 33,4 5,4 16, , , ,5 7,1 20 5,5 14,1 10 3,6 8,8 5,6 1,4 3,1 6,1 0 Metro Other uban Rural No schooling Less than primary Primary Less than secondary Secondary Tertiary Half of the workforce in the metros have completed secondary school, compared to roughly one-fifth in rural areas. Tertiary skills are scarce outside of the cities. Sources: QLFS 2015, own estimates
7 Future driving forces Concentration Business clusters Knowledge & information Human capital Innovation infrastructure International connectivity Climate change Rising aspirations Responsive governance Inertia Dispersal Resurgence of agriculture Sunrise on mining Nature-based tourism Renewable energy Routine production Political pressures
8 Percent (%) 100,0 90,0 80,0 Does this household receive a social grant? 34,6 70,0 60,0 50,0 65,9 57,7 40,0 30,0 65,4 20,0 10,0 34,1 42,4 0,0 Metros Other uban Rural Yes Two-thirds of households in rural areas receive a government cash transfer. This is nearly double the proportion in metropolitan areas. No Sources: GHS 2015, own estimates
9 Percent (%) Percent (%) Responses 1. City-regions & the national urban system 2. Support rural-urban migration Rate of unempt / /15 Remained rural Rural-urban Remained urban 3. National spatial framework More responsive to trends More pro-active and strategic Rate of poverty / /15 Remained rural Remained urban Rural-urban
10 Metropolitan inequalities 10
11 Location of formal and informal enterprises
12 Rands (ps/m) Capital value of office space per square metre, Real 1994 prices Differenced Capital Value Central Business District Decentralised Nodes Source: MSCI Real Estate 12
13 Net investment in office space per square metre, Real 1994 prices Central Business District Decentralised Nodes Source: MSCI Real Estate 13
14 Rands (millions) Net investment in office space by Metro, Real 1994 prices CBD Decentralised Nodes CBD Decentralised Nodes Source: MSCI Real Estate 14 CBD Decentralised Nodes Johannesburg Cape Town Pretoria Durban CBD Decentralised Nodes
15 Future driving forces Densification Congestion Convenience Amenities Buzz Social interaction Sunk investment Security Dispersal Rising incomes Middle class aspirations Crime Inertia
16 Wicked problems neglected new slum formation 1. Invaded CBD buildings Legal stalemate 2. Intensive backyarding
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23 Responses: urban land governance Powers & functions in relation to informality & development Planning & policies Regulations & constraints Pro-active & enabling Housing Transport Basic services Education Health etc Zoning Building regulations Environmental Water Use Provision of public land Infrastructure Incentives Programmes
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