COUNTRY BRIEF - TURKEY

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1 SSI RM Security & Risk Management Consultancy 'Safe in our hands' International House, George Curl Way, Southampton, SO18 2RZ w: e: t: +44 (0) COUNTRY BRIEF - TURKEY SSI RM DIRECTOR'S SUMMARY Turkey is a country struggling with a number of very serious issues including separatist terrorism, internal political instability, Syrian refugees, Islamism, and very serious conflicts in countries on its borders. The authoritarian response of the government is just about managing these problems. Nevertheless, commercial operations can be executed safely with appropriate precautions. Map Crown Copyright 2017 (FCO363 Edition 4). RISK INDICES Country Risk Rating The Country Risk Rating for Turkey is 'three' Out of the 160 countries analysed by SSI RM's Country Risk Assessment Index Turkey is ranked #57 (the higher the ranking the better). For reference the United States of America is ranked #114. Executive Summary Internal Stability Index Conflict Index Terrorism Index Corruption Index Travel Safety Index Crime Index 1

2 Internal Stability Index The Internal Stability Index rating for Turkey is 'moderate risk' with a score of For reference other countries with a similar score for internal stability are Kyrgyzstan (80.3) and Russian Federation (79.2). The situation in Turkey has calmed following an attempted coup on July 2016 (see 'Recent Major Incidents' below). The security environment, however, remains potentially volatile and a state of emergency remains in place. Sporadic demonstrations take place in cities across Turkey, some of which have, in the past, become violent. In Istanbul previous demonstrations have centered on the area around Taksim Square, on Istiklal Street and in the Besiktas and Kadikoy districts and more recently in Okmeydani. In Ankara, the protests have mainly taken place in the central Kizilay district around the Prime Minister s office. In Izmir the focus has been in the town centre, near the waterfront. You should avoid all demonstrations and leave the area if one develops. Police have used tear gas and water cannon extensively to disperse protests. The effects of tear gas can be felt several hundred metres beyond the immediate site of demonstrations. Local transport routes may be disrupted. The conflict in Syria has resulted in over 3.5 million Syrian refugees entering Turkey seeking safety and life support. Conflict Index The Conflict Index rating for Turkey is 'moderate risk' with a score of For reference other countries with a similar score for conflict are Colombia (2.777) and Lebanon (2.782). Historical disagreements with Greece over a number of issues are serious but are very unlikely to escalate into an inter-state conflict. The status of north Cyprus is subject to international mediation. Turkey has no formal relations with Armenia and attempts at rapprochement have failed. 2

3 Terrorism Index The Terrorism Index rating for Turkey is 'high risk' with a score of For reference other countries with a similar score for terrorism are India (7.534) and Somalia (7.654). Although attacks by Islamist terrorist groups cannot be ruled out the principal terrorist threat in Turkey comes from the Kurdistan Workers' Party) PKK. The threat from the PKK is aimed at the Turkish state and its security/armed forces. There are regular attacks by the PKK but they are concentrated in the Kurdish areas of Turkey (south-eastern Turkey/border areas with Iraq and Iran). Foreign businessmen/women and foreign commercial interests are not a target of the PKK. Corruption Index The Corruption Index rating for Turkey is 'moderate risk' with a score of 41. For reference other countries with a similar score for corruption are Burkina Faso (43) and China (40). Travel Safety Index The Travel Safety Index rating for Turkey is 'moderate risk'. The FCO advises against all travel to within 10 km of the border with Syria and to the city of Diyarbakir. The FCO advise against all but essential travel to: the remaining areas of Sirnak, Mardin, Sanliurfa, Gaziantep, Diyarbakir, Kilis and Hatay provinces; and, the provinces of Siirt, Tunceli and Hakkari. Outside of these provinces travel to Turkey should be safe assuming basic precautions are taken. Crime Index The Crime Index rating for Turkey is 'moderate risk'. 3

4 Generally crime levels are low, but street robbery and pick-pocketing are common in the major tourist areas of Istanbul. There is a threat of kidnapping near the Syrian border in Turkey. Terrorist groups operating in Syria, including Daesh routinely use kidnapping as a tactic. They re present in the Syrian border areas and are capable of conducting kidnappings from across the border. RECENT MAJOR INCIDENTS 15 July Turkish Military Coup According to an in-depth report by Al-Jazeera the Turkish government blames the failed coup attempt on Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish preacher and businessman who has lived in selfimposed exile in the United States since Gulen is the leader of a widespread and influential religious movement known as "Hizmet" (Service), which owns foundations, associations, media organisations and schools in Turkey and abroad. Turkish officials say that the coup attempt materialised because Gulenists were increasingly concerned that the government investigation into their illegal actions was coming to an end, and they would be arrested. Gulen, on the other hand, denies any role in the coup and has even alleged that Erdogan orchestrated it himself 'to build a dictatorship' - a claim the president, Turkish spy agencies and even the Turkish opposition have vehemently denied. Regardless of who actually organised the coup what is extraordinary is how a coup of this scale was missed by Turkish intelligence agencies. The coup failed principally because of the response of the people who rapidly came to the government's defence. Since the coup Erdogan has taken several measures, including changing the constitution after a referendum, to concentrate power in his hands. This has increased internal stability in Turkey but at what cost to democracy, human rights, and the future? SUMMARY OF RECENT MINOR INCIDENTS - LAND Organisation Fatalities Location PKK 4 Suruc, Sanliurfa, Turkey PKK 0 Kozluk, Batman, Turkey PKK 6 Eruh, Siirt, Turkey PKK 2 Cizre, Sirnak, Turkey PKK 5 Cukurca, Hakkari, Turkey 4

5 Organisation Fatalities Location PKK 2 Semdinli, Hakkari, Turkey PKK 2 Dogubayazit, Agri, Turkey SECURITY POSTURE MODERATE An incident/attack is possible but not likely. Clients can operate safely in Turkey if security measures and risk controls are implemented in accordance with the SSI RM Security and Risk Management Plan for Turkey. Although the Terrorism Index rating for Turkey is 'high' the threat is from the PKK and is aimed at the Turkey state and its security/armed forces, not foreign businessmen/women and foreign commercial interests. This is why a 'moderate' security posture is appropriate. OTHER INFORMATION Local Laws and Customs It s illegal not to carry some form of photographic ID in Turkey. Make sure you carry your passport and a printed copy of your e-visa or your residence permit with you at all times. Don t take photographs near military or official installations. Ask for permission before photographing people. Health The European Health Insurance Card is not valid in Turkey. Make sure you have adequate travel health insurance and accessible funds to cover the cost of any medical treatment abroad and repatriation. If you need emergency medical assistance during your trip, dial 112 and ask for an ambulance. Natural Disasters Many parts of Turkey are subject to earthquakes. An earthquake of magnitude 6.7 occurred off the coast of Bodrum on 21 July A series of earthquakes of magnitudes up to 5.3 occurred between 6 and 12 February 2017 south west of Canakkale (Gallipoli). Notes: 1. Maps used in SSI RM's Country Briefs are sourced under the Open Government Licence v3.0 from the Foreign & Commonwealth Office's foreign travel advice website. Map Crown Copyright 2017 (FCO363 Edition 4). 5