Event Schedule. Thu, Sep 14, :00pm. Registration 1:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 14 In front of Aula Magna (Piazza San Marco 4, Firenze) 2:00pm

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1 Thu, Sep 14, 2017 Event Schedule 1:00pm Registration 1:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 14 In front of Aula Magna (Piazza San Marco 4, Firenze) 2:00pm Welcome 2:30pm - 2:45pm, Sep 14 Aula Magna (Piazza San Marco 4, Firenze) Speaker: Giorgia Giovannetti professore ordinario, European University Institute Bernard Hoekman Director, Global Economics, Robert Schuman Centre (Global Governance Programme), European University Institute Plenary 1: Presentation by winner of WTO Prize 2:45pm - 3:30pm, Sep 14 Aula Magna 3:00pm Conference briefing 3:30pm - 3:40pm, Sep 14 Aula Magna Speaker: Ian Wooton Professor of Economics, University of Strathclyde

2 Coffee Break 3:40pm - 4:10pm, Sep 14 Via Capponi 9, Firenze 4:00pm Session A1: TRADE POLICY 1 4:10pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Room 3 8 Subsessions EMPTY SLOT 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 14 Economic effects of cumulative FTAs on the EU agricultural sector 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 14 Perspectives on a G-Zero world : takeaways from trade policy research 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 14 Tariff reductions, entry, and welfare: theory and evidence for the last two decades 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 14 Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:40pm, Sep 14 Agricultural trade effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement: A Mexican perspective 5:40pm - 6:00pm, Sep 14 The effect of offshoring on re-training of workers: evidence from matched employeremployee data from Denmark 6:00pm - 6:20pm, Sep 14 The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think 6:20pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Session A2: POLITICAL ECONOMY 1 4:10pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Room 5 8 Subsessions Globalization and conflicts: the good, the bad and the ugly of corporations in Africa 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 14

3 How are attitudes towards free trade shaped? Evidence from Europe 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 14 Trade and endogenous borders 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 14 Euroscepticism: another brick in the wall 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 14 Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:40pm, Sep 14 On trade and the stability of (armed) peace 5:40pm - 6:00pm, Sep 14 Neighbors and friends: the effect of globalization on party positions 6:00pm - 6:20pm, Sep 14 Are politically connected firms more likely to export? 6:20pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Session A3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 1 4:10pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Room 8 8 Subsessions Does tax competition make mobile firms more footloose? 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 14 Labor market imperfections, markups and productivity in multinationals and exporters 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 14 Redefine foreign : implications for FDI spillovers 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 14 The impact of transfer pricing laws on trade mispricing and firm investment 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 14 Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:40pm, Sep 14 Do multinationals transplant their business model? 5:40pm - 6:00pm, Sep 14 The heterogeneous impact of Brexit: early indications from the FTSE 6:00pm - 6:20pm, Sep 14 FDI and aid analysis: does it mitigate structural economic vulnerabilities? 6:20pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14

4 Session A4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 1 4:10pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Room 9 8 Subsessions Dollar funding and firm-level exports 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 14 Import quality, export quality and the role of innovation: evidence from French firms 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 14 Export intermediaries and adjustments to exchange rate movements 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 14 Do more globally engaged firms really pay higher wages? Empirical evidence from Chinese firms 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 14 Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:40pm, Sep 14 Do firms charge different markups: domestic versus export markets 5:40pm - 6:00pm, Sep 14 Mark-up responses to financial shocks 6:00pm - 6:20pm, Sep 14 Germs, roads and trade: resilience of globally Sourcing firms in face of the SARS epidemic 6:20pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Session A5: DEVELOPMENT 1 4:10pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Room 13 8 Subsessions Demand patterns and structural change in the era of globalization 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 14 Global value chains and structural upgrading 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 14 Globalization and social change: gender-specific effects of trade liberalization in Indonesia 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 14 Corruption and international trade: a comprehensive analysis with gravity 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 14

5 Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:40pm, Sep 14 Can trade buffer extreme weather shocks? Evidence from rice in the Philippines 5:40pm - 6:00pm, Sep 14 The uneven effect of globalization on trade costs 6:00pm - 6:20pm, Sep 14 Sources of heterogeneous gains from trade: skill-premium vs. non-homotheticity 6:20pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Session A6: SERVICES 1 4:10pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Room 14 8 Subsessions Winners and losers of service offshoring 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 14 Services liberalization and GVC participation: heterogeneous effect by income level and provisions 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 14 Serving abroad: export, M&A, and greenfield investment 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 14 Inequality and trade in services, the case of Great Britain 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 14 Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:40pm, Sep 14 The determinants of services trade: firm-level evidence 5:40pm - 6:00pm, Sep 14 Value added from services exports 6:00pm - 6:20pm, Sep 14 Revisiting beneficiation: natural resource industries and backward linkages to knowledge-intensive business services 6:20pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Session A7: NETWORKS 1 4:10pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Room 16

6 8 Subsessions How do business sentiments propagate within the European Union? 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 14 Developing country firms in global production networks: a firm-level analysis 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 14 Global and local centrality of emerging countries in the World Trade Network 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 14 Modelling the exchange of weapons in the Cold War period: a two stage approach for valued networks 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 14 Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:40pm, Sep 14 Trade network structure, income effects and vertical differentiation 5:40pm - 6:00pm, Sep 14 The impact of media on trade: evidence from the 2008 China milk contamination scandal 6:00pm - 6:20pm, Sep 14 Learning and the value of trade relationships 6:20pm - 6:40pm, Sep 14 Fri, Sep 15, :00am Session B1: TRADE POLICY 2 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Room 6 EMPTY SLOT 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 15 Market power and export taxes 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 15 Factor decomposition of Japan s trade balance 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 15 Economic modelling of EU free trade agreements: reflections by a partial bystander 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 15 Bilateral trade agreements and trade distortions in agricultural markets 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 15

7 Session B2: POLITICAL ECONOMY 2 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Room 5 The trade origins of economic nationalism: import competition and voting behavior in Western Europe 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 15 Contesting an international trade agreement 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 15 Globalization for sale 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 15 Costs and benefits of Brexit: the triangle of interests 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 15 Protection is for sale, but only for very effective sectors 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Session B3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 2 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Room 8 Business services and multinational corporation: theory and evidence 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 15 Overseas production expansion and domestic transaction network 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 15 Greenfield hires 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 15 Decomposing value chains within Swedish multinationals 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 15 Production clusters and offshoring 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Session B4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 2 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Room 9

8 Servitize and export: evidence from German firms 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 15 The competitiveness of the European firms: a continental approach 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 15 Competition in export markets and multi-product firm productivity in Italian manufacturing 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 15 Exchange rate movements, firm-level exports and heterogeneity 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 15 The distribution of firm productivity: measurement and implications for trade models 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Session B5: TRADE THEORY 1 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Room 13 A north-south model of trade with search unemployment 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 15 The global productivity distribution and Ricardian comparative advantage 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 15 Banking across borders with heterogeneous banks 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 15 Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 15 The dynamic impact of bilateral free trade agreements: any difference between countries? 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Session B6: SERVICES 2 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Room 14 Exploring the nexus between bank market power and international trade 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 15

9 Cross-border banking in the EU since the crisis: what drives the great retrenchment? 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 15 Aid for trade in services and effect on services trade 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 15 Trading firms and trading costs in services: the case of Sweden 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 15 Air cargo market structure, intermodal competition, and prices: evidence from Chinese imports from Europe 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Session B7: NETWORKS 2 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 15 Room 16 Trade policy and the network of global value chains 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 15 The digital connection: online business platforms and firms export performance 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 15 Trade and domestic production networks 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 15 Revisiting ASEAN enlargement effects on trade: a gravity approach 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 15 Learning to import from your peers 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 15 10:00am Coffee Break 10:40am - 11:10am, Sep 15 11:00am Session C1: TRADE POLICY 3 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Room 6

10 Impacts of regional trade agreements on international trade patterns revisited 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 15 NTMs avoiding the commodity trap 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 15 The impact of gradual economic integration on export: the case of Brexit 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 15 Trade liberalization, infrastructure and firm performance: evidence from Ethiopian census data 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 15 The impact of abundance of natural resources on regional integration: empirical evidence 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Session C2: REGIONALISM 1 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Room 5 Trade creation and trade diversion in deep agreements 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 15 The Euro and the CFA Franc: evidence of sectoral trade effects 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 15 Preferential trade agreements and global sourcing 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 15 How intermediates trade affects the formation of free trade agreements: a study analyzing pairwise trade flows of 70 countries 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 15 Competitiveness as ability to adjust: the EU-10 export structure and its convergence to the German pattern 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Session C3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 3 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Room 8 Impact of the intellectual property tax regime on FDI activities at the city level

11 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 15 Wage inequality and the role of multinational firms: evidence from German linked employer-employee data 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 15 Export platforms and multinational demand risk diversification 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 15 Are vertical linkages with foreign firms different? Evidence from Viet Nam 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 15 Local linkages: the interdependence of foreign and domestic firms 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Session C4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 3 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Room 9 Offshoring of R&D, innovation and productivity. firm-level evidence from EU countries 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 15 The impact of Chinese competition along the quality ladder: evidence from French exporters 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 15 The effects of Japanese customer firms overseas outsourcing on supplier firms performance 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 15 Employment volatility and foreign shocks 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 15 What's next? Returning to exports after a failure 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Session C5: TRADE THEORY 2 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Room 13 Capital tax competition and vertical fiscal externalities in a federation under variable labor supply 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 15

12 RCA: choosing the right measure 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 15 Finance, organization, and the product mix of exporters 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 15 Quality polarization and international trade 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 15 Commercial policies in the presence of input-output linkages 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Session C6: MIGRATION 1 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Room 14 Immigration, offshoring, tasks and technology adoption: implications for natives wage structure 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 15 Learn and return: productive knowledge diffusion through migrant workers 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 15 The labour market integration of refugees in Germany: evidence from a field experiment 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 15 Migration, relationship-specificity and trade 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 15 Exporting creative and cultural products: birthplace diversity matters! 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Session C7: NETWORKS 3 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 15 Propagation of shocks due to natural disasters through global supply chains 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 15 Learning from customers: export market entry and the role of firm networks 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 15 Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 15 The percolation of knowledge across space

13 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 15 Local labor market effects of international sourcing: evidence for the Netherlands 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 15 12:00pm Lunch 12:50pm - 2:00pm, Sep 15 2:00pm ROWE Young Economists Prize 2:00pm - 2:15pm, Sep 15 Room 8 Break (no coffee) 2:15pm - 2:20pm, Sep 15 Session D1: TRADE POLICY 4 2:20pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Room 6 Challenges of DCFTA for Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 15 Trade impacts of naming and shaming of forced and child labor 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 15 The impact of trade liberalization on the stock market: a sector-level approach. 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 15 Welfare analysis of trade policies in factors and goods 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 15 Data concepts and sources of non-tariff measures (NTMs): an exploratory analysis 3:40pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Session D2: REGIONALISM 2 2:20pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Room 5

14 Trade effects of the Euro: a non-parametric assessment using value-added data 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 15 Regional interconnectedness in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from regional value added trade and regional sectoral linkages 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 15 Hubs and spokes in regional trade agreements 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 15 Using text-as-data analysis to assess the design and impact of trade agreements 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 15 Exporter and importer effects on trade flows: a three-way model 3:40pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Session D3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 4 2:20pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Room 8 Does a tax credit matter for job creation by multinational enterprises? 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 15 Foreign retail entry under domestic rivals 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 15 FDI in natural resources and institutional and political distance 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 15 Foreign market entry, incumbency advantages and news: a model of international R&D competition with simultaneous entry and exit 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 15 Vertical FDI and global sourcing strategies of multinational firms 3:40pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Session D4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 4 2:20pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Room 9 Experimentation speed across products: evidence from Peru in the USA market 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 15

15 Flexibility and productivity heterogeneity of multiproduct exporters 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 15 Acquiring international experience makes firms also exporting? A lesson from a wage posting model 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 15 How firms accumulate inputs: evidence from import switching 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 15 Redistribution, selection, and trade 3:40pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Session D5: TRADE THEORY 3 2:20pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Room 13 Continuous spatial monopolistic competition: matching goods with consumers 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 15 Productivity, fair wage and offshoring domestic jobs 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 15 Costs, trade patterns, endowments, global free trade, terms of trade, and GE solutions 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 15 Heterogeneous firms and international trade: the role of financial fragility and monetary policy 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 15 An anatomy of the transfer problem 3:40pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Session D6: MIGRATION 2 / LABOUR 1 2:20pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Room 14 The political economy of immigrants integration 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 15 Foreign workers and indirect exports: firm-level evidence from Viet Nam 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 15 EMPTY SLOT

16 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 15 Having the right mix: the role of skill bundles for comparative advantage and industry performance in global value chains 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 15 Globalization, gender, and the family 3:40pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Session D7: ANTI-DUMPING 1 2:20pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 Room 16 Preferential trade agreements and antidumping protection 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 15 Granting market economy status to China in the EU: an economic impact assessment 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 15 False friends? Empirical evidence on trade policy substitution in regional trade agreements 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 15 Antidumping: take it off, take it all off 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 15 The performance of exporting firms under import protection 3:40pm - 4:00pm, Sep 15 4:00pm Coffee Break 4:00pm - 4:30pm, Sep 15 Session E1: TRADE POLICY 5 4:30pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Room 6 The innovation channel of Brexit 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 15 A theory of new trade agreements

17 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 15 The effects of import competition on firms environmental performance: an investigation for an emerging economy 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 15 Importing under trade policy uncertainty: evidence from China 5:30pm - 5:50pm, Sep 15 Ad-valorem equivalents of trade agreement provisions: what implications for UK trade negotiations? 5:50pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Session E2: REGIONALISM 3 4:30pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Room 5 Cooperation versus choosing between regional trade agreements: the case of Ukraine 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 15 Consequences of FTA withdrawal: evidence from EU enlargement 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 15 The cost of borders: evidence from the Eurasian customs union 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 15 The treatment effect of regional trade agreements 5:30pm - 5:50pm, Sep 15 The impact of the European reform of preferential rules of origin on utilization rates and trade flows 5:50pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Session E3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 5 4:30pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Room 8 The grass is greener among cultural neighbours: the effects of cultural proximity on greenfield FDI 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 15 ODI and firm-level performance: is China different from the remaining BRIC countries? 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 15 Do exchange rate regimes affect foreign direct investment?

18 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 15 Italian firms in global value chains: updating our knowledge 5:30pm - 5:50pm, Sep 15 Welfare and trade margins with multinational production 5:50pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Session E4: GROWTH 1 4:30pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Room 9 Endogenous growth and north-south technology transfer with two intermediate inputs 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 15 The disaster-growth nexus: shedding light on the local effects of natural events 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 15 Uneven growth in the extensive margin: a new explanation for the lag of agricultural economies 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 15 Energy security and trade competitiveness 5:30pm - 5:50pm, Sep 15 Trade in services versus trade in manufactures: the relation between the role of tacit knowledge and the scope for catchup 5:50pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Session E5: TRADE THEORY 4 4:30pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Room 13 Population aging, technology, and the north-south trade 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 15 From China with love 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 15 Now we re talking: a theoretical foundation for the effect of languages on trade 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 15 A simple model of Brexit under oligopoly 5:30pm - 5:50pm, Sep 15

19 Vertical and horizontal dynamics in export unit values 5:50pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Session E6: LABOUR 2 4:30pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Room 14 Does labor cost impact firms exports? 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 15 Modeling wasteful commuting as inter-regional trade in labour 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 15 Wage response to trade in tasks: evidence for European countries from EUSILC microdata 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 15 Why the make or buy decision might not be a linear one when the labour market is imperfect 5:30pm - 5:50pm, Sep 15 Global value chains and labor market outcomes 5:50pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Session E7: ANTI-DUMPING 2 4:30pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15 Room 16 How does trade respond to trade disputes? Evidence from Chinese exporters 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 15 Tit-for-tat trade policy? 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 15 Trade policy and the China Syndrome 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 15 The GATT/WTO welfare effects: :30pm - 5:50pm, Sep 15 EMPTY SLOT 5:50pm - 6:10pm, Sep 15

20 6:00pm Break (no coffee) 6:10pm - 6:15pm, Sep 15 Plenary 2: From Ricardo to Brexit and beyond 6:15pm - 7:00pm, Sep 15 Aula Magna Authors: Peter Neary On the two hundredth anniversary of the publication of On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, which is also the year when the United Kingdom begins its negotiations to leave the European Union, it is timely to review Ricardo s contributions to our understanding of economic theory in general and to the study of international trade in particular. Ricardo presented definitive answers to three of the central questions in interna- tional trade: what determines the pattern of trade?; are there aggregate gains from trade?; and what are the distributional consequences of trade? His answers to the first two questions were a major advance over Adam Smith s common-sensical analysis, based on absolute advantage. The theory of comparative advantage predicts trade patterns and aggregate gains from trade and remains one of the central planks of con- temporary trade analysis. By contrast, Ricardo s analysis of the effects of repealing the Corn Laws can be seen as a common-sensical approach to understanding the effects of trade on income distribution, but it provides only a starting point to the problem. At best, it can be interpreted as a simple version of the specific-factors model, so it fails to account for the case of more than one intersectorally mobile factor. These principles provide more than enough analysis for understanding the broad effects of globalization: the greater the difference between countries, the greater will be the aggregate gains, but also the greater will be the losses to factors specific to import-competing sectors. Understanding the effects of changes in trading arrange- ments requires at least two additional considerations, which modern analysis has high- lighted. One is the effect of gravity on trade, which implies that trade volumes fall with distance, and that so-called global value chains are mostly megaregional. A second is that trade between similar economies is mostly intra-industry trade, which yields gains from diversity while imposing less costs of adjustment. All these considerations, old and new, have straightforward implications for choosing between alternative trading arrangements subject to the constraint that domestic adjustment is low. Ideally, trade links should be privileged when they are with countries that are relatively close and that have broadly similar economic structures, though with some internal differences to allow for the efficient establishment of regional value chains. From the perspective of the UK, the implication is clear: the preferred trading partner is the EU Single Market. Slides available at Speaker: P Peter Neary Oxford University Sat, Sep 16, :00am

21 Session F1: TRADE POLICY 6 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Room Refettorio The trade disputes as a catalyst to trade flow: evidence from 19 years of WTO disputes 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 16 Belt and Road : the China dream? 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 16 The microeconomic adjustment to customs-driven administrative barriers 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 16 Choked by red tape? The political economy of wasteful trade barriers 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 16 Does international trade favour proximity in culture and beliefs? 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Session F2: STRUCTURAL MODELS & GRAVITY 1 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Room Seminario 2 Who benefits from trade liberalizations? Evidence from the exporter dynamics database 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 16 Exports dynamics: a gravity model applied to Portuguese wine 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 16 The gravity of trade in intermediate goods 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 16 Looking into GVCs: the influence of foreign services on export performance 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 16 The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models: the role of solution methods and baseline calibration 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Session F3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 6 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Room Seminario 3

22 Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 16 Vertical versus horizontal foreign direct investement and technology spillovers 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 16 The role of management practices in acquisitions and greenfield FDI 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 16 A tale of two property rights: knowledge, physical assets, and multinational firm boundaries 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 16 MNE activity in Poland: horizontal, vertical or both? 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Session F4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 5 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Room Seminario 4 Firm-level determinants of direct and indirect exports 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 16 Exporting and frictions in input markets: evidence from Chinese data 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 16 International sourcing and employment in times of financial crisis: the case of France 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 16 Behavioral characteristics of applied general equilibrium models with variable elasticity of substitution between varieties 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 16 ICT and export performances in Visegrad and Central and Eastern European countries: evidence from firm-level data 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Session F5: TRADE THEORY 5 / INSTITUTIONS 1 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Room Capitolo Business perceptions on burdensome NTMs and their impact on international trade

23 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 16 Standards and market power: evidence from Tunisia 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 16 Scale economies in European trade 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 16 Institutions, services reforms and manufacturing productivity: the case of Italian firms 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 16 Government efficiency and exports in China: a treatment effect analysis? 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Session F6: LABOUR 3 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Room Emeroteca The impact of globalization on the structural unemployment: an empirical reappraisal 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 16 Non-Tariff Measures and the Extensive Margin of Trade: The Case of Swiss Exports 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 16 The evolution of tradable and non-tradable employment: evidence from France 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 16 Enterprise employment restructuring: the role of budget constraints 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 16 Labor market discrimination, comparative advantage, and the impact of trade 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Session F7: ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY 1 9:00am - 10:40am, Sep 16 Room Teatro Selection and agglomeration of heterogeneous firms in space: the case of Italy 9:00am - 9:20am, Sep 16 Location and agglomeration of firms in times of conflict: the case of Ukraine 9:20am - 9:40am, Sep 16 Industry cluster and firm performance 9:40am - 10:00am, Sep 16

24 Producer heterogeneity, value-added and international trade 10:00am - 10:20am, Sep 16 Domestic transport costs, Canada, and the Panama Canal 10:20am - 10:40am, Sep 16 10:00am Coffee Break 10:40am - 11:10am, Sep 16 11:00am Session G1: TRADE POLICY 7 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Room Refettorio No double standard: quantifying the impact of standard harmonization on trade 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 16 The currency union effect: a PPML re-assessment with high-dimensional fixed effects 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 16 Technical regulations, intermediate inputs and performance of domestic firms: evidence from India 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 16 Breaking badly: the currency union effect on trade 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 16 Has the euro protected its members from the "Great Trade Collapse"? 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Session G2: STRUCTURAL MODELS & GRAVITY 1 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 2 Where does dirty money go? A gravity analysis 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 16 The gravity in bilateral exports of factors

25 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 16 How to evaluate computable models of trade 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 16 Estimating trade elasticities for manufacturing industry in the OECD countries: a dynamic gravity application 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 16 Crossing the border: regional exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Session G3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 7 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 3 Determinants of intra-firm trade: evidence from a small open European economy 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 16 Payment contracts and trade finance in export relationships 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 16 Have exports become less responsive to exchange rate movements? The role of global value chains 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 16 Intangible assets and the organization of global supply chains 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 16 Jobs, FDI and Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from firm-level data 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Session G4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 6 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 4 Export market entry and initial values 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 16 Tasks, occupations, and wage inequality in an open economy 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 16 Skill premium and online trade 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 16

26 An empirical dynamic model of trade with consumer accumulation 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 16 There and back again? Heterogeneous firms, product quality and reshoring decision 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Session G5: INSTITUTIONS 2 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Room Capitolo Growing through trade in intermediate goods: the role of foreign growth and domestic tariffs 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 16 Formation of north-south trade agreements and institutional distance 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 16 NGO monitoring and industry equilibrium: empirical evidence from a new database 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 16 Do procedural protections matter? New evidence from a natural experiment in the investment treaty network 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 16 The impact of migration on FDI 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Session G6: LABOUR 4 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Room Emeroteca Posted workers and local labour markets: a spatial CGE analysis 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 16 Manpower constraints and corporate policies 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 16 Rising wages and intra-country industry relocation: evidence from China 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 16 The impact of Chinese competition on Mexican labor outcomes 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 16 Labour market reform, firm-level employment adjustment and trade liberalisation

27 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Session G7: ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY 2 / ENVIRONMENT 1 11:10am - 12:50pm, Sep 16 Room Teatro Trade and spatial agglomeration: what can we learn from the import side using interregional flows 11:10am - 11:30am, Sep 16 Fiscal equalization in the spatial economy 11:30am - 11:50am, Sep 16 On trade and renewable resources with cross-sectoral externalities 11:50am - 12:10pm, Sep 16 Degrowth vs pure reduction targets: a gravity analysis of carbon leakage, global emissions, and welfare 12:10pm - 12:30pm, Sep 16 Trade in resources and environmental regulation 12:30pm - 12:50pm, Sep 16 12:00pm Lunch 12:50pm - 2:00pm, Sep 16 2:00pm Session H1: TRADE POLICY 8 2:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Room Refettorio A new perspective of economic complexity: province to province trade in the Spanish case 2:00pm - 2:20pm, Sep 16 Do we need deeper trade agreements for GVCs or just a BIT? 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 16

28 Does trade policy of VAT rebates benefit workers: evidence from China 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 16 Targeted export promotion in general oligopolistic equilibrium 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 16 Does persistence in internationalization and innovation influence firms performance? 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Session H2: STRUCTURAL MODELS & GRAVITY 3 2:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 2 Orthodox and non-orthodox factors of foreign trade of regions: a gravity panel data model for Poland and Spain 2:00pm - 2:20pm, Sep 16 Imports, exports and domestic innovation 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 16 Nowcasting the Czech trade balance 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 16 On the persistence of cultural differences in the face of globalization: a gravity estimation approach 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 16 Importing from home: explaining the home bias in trade puzzle 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Session H3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 8 2:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 3 How deep is your love? Innovation, upgrading and the mode of internationalization 2:00pm - 2:20pm, Sep 16 Fiscal competition for FDI with knowledge spillovers and trade costs 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 16 Offshoring and product differentiation in the export market 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 16 Tax competition for FDI with profit shifting opportunities

29 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 16 Determinants of FDI for Spanish regions: evidence using stock data 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Session H4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 7 2:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 4 Scope and sectoral impact of state-owned enterprises in Europe 2:00pm - 2:20pm, Sep 16 Promoting EU wine trade in a world of heterogeneous firms: incentives for quality and collective reputation 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 16 Trade shock, R&D, and firm growth during bad times 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 16 Count data models in the analysis of firm export diversification 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 16 Firms financing structure, export and internationalization 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Session H5: DEVELOPMENT 2 2:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Room Capitolo Service offshoring and firm employment 2:00pm - 2:20pm, Sep 16 Does aid for trade reduce trade costs? Panel data evidence from inverse gravity 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 16 Trade in unhealthy foods and obesity: evidence from Mexico 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 16 Measuring within-country income inequality from trade data 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 16 Efficiency, innovation, and imported inputs: determinants of export performance among Indian manufacturing firms 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16

30 Session H6: LABOUR 5 2:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Room Emeroteca Import competition and workplace injuries in US manufacturing industries 2:00pm - 2:20pm, Sep 16 Short- versus long-run effects of offshoring when sectors are heterogeneous 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 16 The China Shock revisited: Insights from value added trade flows 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 16 Trade openness and the skill premium: an inverted- U relation? 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 16 Cross-border exports and foreign affiliate sales of services firms: evidence on destination-specific modes of supply 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Session H7: ENVIRONMENT 2 2:00pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 Room Teatro Trade liberalization and environmental degradation: a time series analysis for Turkey 2:00pm - 2:20pm, Sep 16 Carrot and stick: collateral effects of green public policy 2:20pm - 2:40pm, Sep 16 The pollution outsourcing hypothesis: an empirical test for Japan 2:40pm - 3:00pm, Sep 16 Trade disruptions from natural disasters: evidence from monthly data 3:00pm - 3:20pm, Sep 16 Environmental laws: the effect on environmental outcomes in an open economy 3:20pm - 3:40pm, Sep 16 3:00pm Coffee Break

31 3:40pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 4:00pm Session I1: TRADE POLICY 9 4:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Room Refettorio 4 Subsessions Trade policy in the Melitz model 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 16 Euro imbalances in global value chains 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 16 Empirical examination of the invoicing currency choice in international trade 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 16 Destination-based corporate taxes and trade policy 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Session I2: STRUCTURAL MODELS & GRAVITY 4 4:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 2 4 Subsessions Constrained Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation of structural gravity models 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 16 Does GLOBALGAP certification promote agricultural exports? 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 16 The European Union in turmoil: a general equilibrium analysis of trade and welfare 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 16 Value-added trade, gross trade and spatial autocorrelation: case of EU member states 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Session I3: FDI, MNEs & FIRM ORGANIZATION 9 4:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 3 4 Subsessions

32 The global recession and the shift to re-shoring: myth or reality? 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 16 Migration and FDI: the role of job heterogeneity 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 16 Like father like son: technology transfer and productivity effects from firm ownership 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 16 The impact of foreign investment regulation on firm productivity and employment in Indonesia 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Session I4: FIRM HETEROGENEITY 8 4:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Room Seminario 4 4 Subsessions Globalization and profitability: the case of Ecuatorian firms 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 16 Firm heterogeneity, location and export performance: empirical evidence from Ukrainian firm-level data 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 16 Towards a comprehensive industrial policy approach more than just picking cherries 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 16 EMPTY SLOT 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Session I5: INSTITUTIONS 3 4:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Room Capitolo 4 Subsessions The impact of Chinese penetration on employment skills and productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 16 Structural transformation in Mexico: what is the role of FDI? 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 16 Roads to trade: the welfare effects of connecting mines versus cities 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 16

33 Industrialisation and the big push in a global economy 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Session I6: SERVICES 3 4:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Room Emeroteca 4 Subsessions Trade and inequality: evidence from worker-level adjustment in France 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 16 Migration impacts on bilateral trade in services 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 16 What determines trade in health services? A gravity approach 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 16 EMPTY SLOT 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Session I7: ENVIRONMENT 3 4:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 Room Teatro 4 Subsessions Globalization, the gains from variety, and the environment 4:10pm - 4:30pm, Sep 16 Output, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and international trade nexus: evidence from EU-15 countries 4:30pm - 4:50pm, Sep 16 EMPTY SLOT 4:50pm - 5:10pm, Sep 16 EMPTY SLOT 5:10pm - 5:30pm, Sep 16 5:00pm Break (no coffee) 5:30pm - 5:35pm, Sep 16

34 Plenary 3: Empirical productivity distributions and international trade 5:35pm - 6:20pm, Sep 16 Authors: Katharina Erhardt; Peter Egger; Sergey NigaiIn models of international trade featuring heterogeneous firms, identifying the shape and location of the firms productivity distribution is necessary for modelling firm selection into production and exporting. We argue that the existing parametric approaches to modelling efficiency distributions across different countries and sectors produce large deviations from the firm-level data, which, in turn, translates into incorrect estimates of the measures of active firms, trade and welfare. For that, we use micro-level data for several countries and sectors, estimate firm-level productivity distributions in a non-parametric way and feed them into general equilibrium models of trade. We calibrate the model to the aggregate data on production, prices and trade flows and find that a counterfactual trade liberalization under empirical productivity distributions would entail larger welfare gains from trade relative to the parametric assumptions, e.g., Pareto. We argue that these differences constitute a new and large empirical margin of the gains from trade that has been previously ignored. Speaker: Katharina Erhardt Forscher (Postdoktorand), ETH Zürich Powered By Whova