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1 : 3 :,,, ;,,,,,, :,,,, (Cai and Wang, 2005),, GDP 2618 %,, 2013, (,2008 ;Cai, 2008),,,,,, (,2008),,,,,,,,, :,,,, ( ),,,,,, 3,, :100732, org. cn ( Lewis, 1972 ; Ranis and Fei, 1961),,,, ;,,, 4

2 2010 4,,,, ( Young, 1992), :, (Ravallion and Chen, 1999),, , 3916 %,,, (Cai and Wang, 2008),,, ( Lau, 2010),, (Minami and Ma, 2009),,,,,, 20 90,,,,, 213, 115,,, 1 30 %, (Cai, 2004),,,,,, ( Rawski, 2001),,,,,,, (total fertility rate),,,, 2040, 16 (,2010),,,,,,,,,,,, : ; ; ; 2000, 1132, 1151 (, 2002),,,,, , 211 5

3 :, (Lewis, 1954),,,,,,,, (Ranis, 2004),,, (demographic transition theory),, (1), (2), (3),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Williamson, 1997),,,,,,,, U,,,,,,,, ( 1) :, ( ) ;,, Thompson(1929) ;,,, Notestein(1945), Caldwell (1976) 6

4 2010 4, ;,, (, ),, 1,,,,,, (Sala2i2Martin, 1997),,,,,,, (world development 1 indicators), 1960 GDP,GDP - 51 % 106 %,, GDP 0 % 10 %,GDP,,,, GDP, 2 GDP, 95 % 2, GDP, U, GDP ;, GDP ;, GDP, ;,, GDP, GDP 2 GDP :,, GDP,, 1, (2004), GDP, 7

5 :, 1 GDP, GDP t P > t U , , ,,,,,,,,, ,,,, 20 70, 6,,, ,, , , :,,,,,, (14 65 ) (15 64 ), 20 60,,, ( 3), (,2008 ; Cai and Wang, 2005),,,,,, 3, %,, 2008, 2030, 14162,, , 9198,,,,,,,,, 8,, ,

6 2010 4,,,,,, (,2009), 2015, 3, :United Nations(2009),,,,, (, ),,,,?,,,,,, 50, 90,, (,2006) 20 80, 30,,,, %, ; 2001 ( GNI),, 1713 %,, 5613 %,,,, (, ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2010,, GDP (JCER, 2007), 2000,2020 GDP 1713, ,

: GDP 112 118 212 Fogel (2007), 2040 GDP 12317, 1416, GDP 815,,,,,,,,,

7 : GDP Fogel (2007), 2040 GDP 12317, 1416, GDP 815,,,,,,,,, 30,,,,, 4, ,, ,,,,, :United Nations(2009) 4,,,,,,,, 10

8 2010 4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2009, 6 115, 6,, %,,, 2007, 45 %, 33 %,,, 12,, (,2010),,,, (,2009),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Solow, 1956), ( Young,1992 ; Krugman, 1994),,, 11

9 :,,,,,,,,2008 :,,2009 :, 2,2010 : :, 2,2004 :, 12,2009 :,,2006 :, 21,,2010 :, 1 21,http :ΠΠwww1chinanews1com1cnΠcjΠcj - ylgdπnewsπ2010π01218π shtml,2002 :, 26 3 Bai, Moo2ki, 1982, The Turning Point in the Korean Economy, Developing Economies, No. 2, pp Cai, Fang, 2004, The Consistency of China s Statistics on Employment : Stylized Facts and Implications for Public Policies, The Chinese Economy, Vol. 37, No. 5 (September2October), pp Π09. Cai, Fang, 2008, Approaching a Triumphal Span : How Far Is China towards its Lewisian Turning Point? UNU2WIDER Research Paper No. Cai, Fang and Dewen Wang, 2005, China s Demographic Transition : Implications for Growth, in Garnaut and Song (eds) The China Boom and Its Discontents, Canberra : Asia Pacific Press. Cai, Fang and Meiyan Wang, 2008, A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China, China &World Economy, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp Caldwell, John C., 1976, Toward a Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory, Population and Development Review, Vol. 2,No. 3Π4, pp Fogel, Robert W., 2007, Capitalism and Democracy in 2040 : Forecasts and Speculations, NBER Working Paper, No Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER), 2007, Demographic Change and the Asian Economy, Long2term Forecast Team of Economic Research Department, Japan Center for Economic Research, Tokyo. Krugman, Paul, 1994, The Myth of Asia s Miracle, Foreign Affairs,Vol. 73,No. 6,pp Lau, Lawrence J., 2010, The Chinese Economy : The Next Thirty Years, presented at the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 16 January. Lewis, Arthur, 1958, Unlimited Labour : Further Notes, Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, XXVI (Jan. ), pp Lewis, Arthur, 1972, Reflections on Unlimited Labour, in Di Marco, L. (ed. ) International Economics and Development, New York, Academic Press, pp Minami Ryoshi and Xinxin Ma, 2009, The Turning Point of Chinese Economy : Compared with Japanese Experience, Asian Economics, Vol, 50, No. 12, pp (in Japanese). Minami, Ryoshin, 1968, The Turning Point in the Japanese Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 82, No. 3, pp ), 1960, 1970, ( Minami, 1968 ; Bai, 12

10 Notestein, Frank W., 1945, Population The Long View, in Theodore W. Schultz (ed. ) Food for the World, Chicago : University of Chicago Press. Ranis, Gustav, 2004, Arthur Lewis Contribution to Development Thinking and Policy, Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 891 (August) Ranis, Gustav and Fei, John C. H., 1961, A Theory of Economic Development, American Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 533 Ravallion, Martin and Shaohua Chen, 1999, When Economic Reform Is Faster than Statistical Reform : Measuring and Explaining Income Inequality in Rural China, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 1, pp Rawski, Thomas G., 2001, What s Happening to China s GDP Statistics? China Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp Sala2i2Martin, Xavier X., 1997, I Just Ran Two Million Regressions, American Economic Review, Vol. 87, No. 2, pp Solow, Robert M., 1956, A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 65 Thompson, Warren S., 1929, Population, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 34,No. 6,pp United Nations, 2009, The World Population Prospects : The 2008 Revision, http :ΠΠesa. un.orgπunppπ. Williamson, Jeffrey, 1997, Growth, Distribution and Demography : Some Lessons from History, NBER Working Paper, No Young, Alwyn, 1992, A Tale of Two Cities : Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore, Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer (eds) NB ER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press. Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend, and Le wis Turning Point in China Cai Fang ( Institute of Population and Labor Economics, CASS) Abstract :The disagreements on changed stages of demographic transition and the role of demographic dividend in dual economy development often lead to divarication among scholars about China s development stages. This paper tries to reveal the nexus between demographic transition and dual economy development : the common starting points, close related processes, and identical characteristics of stages. Based on the empirical evidence of population dynamics, the paper proves the judgment of diminishing demographic dividend and incoming Lewis turning point in China. It also argues that the further economic growth and thus faster entrance of high2income cavalcade is the key and only avenue to close the aging before affluence gap. Accordingly, the paper concludes with proposing measures of exploiting potentials of first demographic dividend, creating conditions for second demographic dividend, and tapping new sources of economic growth. Key Words :Demographic Transition ; Demographic Dividend ; Lewis Turning Point ; Aging Before Affluence JEL Classification :J11,O53 ( : ) ( : ) 13

Professor and Director of Institute of Population and Labor Economics, CASS; Director of Center for Human Resources Research, CASS

CAI Fang Professor and Director of Institute of Population and Labor Economics, CASS; Director of Center for Human Resources Research, CASS Expertise Development Theory and Policy, Agricultural Policy,