Jordan s experience with social and labour market policy reforms. Prof. Nidal Katamine

Transcription

1 Third International IPR-MENA Social Policy Conference on: A new social contract for MENA countries: Experiences from Development and Social Policies Jordan s experience with social and labour market policy reforms Prof. Nidal Katamine 5-6 December

2 Arab spring 2 of 29 2

3 Content Socio economic indicators Labour market indicators National Employment strategy: Coherence between Economic Policies Poverty alleviation (satellite units) Active labour market programs (ALMP) and supporting institutions Self employment Migrant Policies Syrian Crisis Other socio-economic labour market related policies 3 of 29 3

4 Jordan: Some Macroeconomic indicators Foreign Direct Investment in Jordan (JD Million) Per Capita GDP at Current Market Prices (JD) Population (In Millions) Change in Nominal GDP at Market Prices of 29 Source: CBJ 4

5 Some socio-economic indicators Indicators Population (In Million) GDP at Current Market Prices value ,637 Ref. Year Unemployment rate (Q2 2016) 14.7% Q Inflation rate Illiteracy Rate (Population Age15+) 1.4% females (9.8%) and Males (3.7%). July Students in Basic Education females (49.2%) Males (50.8%) of 29 5

6 Jordan Syria Iraq Palestine yemen Indonesia Pakistan Banglsdish Turkey srilanka Phillipine India Sudan Somalia Libya Egypt Morroco USA Others Millions Population in Jordan according to Nationality Non- Jordanian 31% Jordanian 69% of 29 Source: DoS 6

7 Distribution of all population, 2015 Male Female Distribution of Jordanian population, 2015 Females to males around 50%:50% Male Female 7 of 29 Source: DoS

8 Labour market Indicators Unemployment rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Female Total Male Unemployment rates 10 years ago.. Q2 8 of 29 Q2 Annual Average 8

9 Labour Market Indicators Unemployed 2015 )209,569( Labour Force 2015 )1,607,599( Employed 2015 )1,398,030( 50.4% Tawjihi دون and توج ه فما below. 63.9% 9.3% دبلوم متوسط Diploma 9.7% 60.0% 40.3% 40.0% 20.0% Bachelor بكالور وس فأعلى and Above 0.0% 26.5% 0.0% 20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0% 0.31 إناث Females 16.0% 0.69 ذكور Males 84.0% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9 0f 29 Dos, NCHRD

10 Economic Growth and Created Jobs Economic Growth jobs 3.1% , % , % , % , % , % , % , % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 New entrants to the labour market are estimated at 120, 000 per annum. 10 of 29 Dos and CBJ

11 Economic growth and Employment Despite variation, the employment output elasticity is Employment-output elasticity, , (employment lagged by one year, two year moving average). 0.0 Employment Growth of Jordanians Economic Growth Rate 11 of 29 Calculated based On Dos, CBJ and NCHRD

12 Vocational and Technical Training Job Polarization, EU % changes in labor supply/skills upgrade (ISCED) and labor demand for skills/tasks (ISCO) (Maselli, 2012) Supply Demand 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Net Employment Creation by Sex and Nationality Similarly the middle is missing in Jordan 0 Low-Skilled Medium-Skilled Hgh-Skilled J Non-J Male Female The Middles is missing 12 of 29 NES review report

13 National Employment Strategy (NES) NES has been launched under the patronage of His Majesty in 2012, to concentrate on Employment policies, enhancing the Standard of livings and increase employability, wages and Correct mismatch and enhance SMES Restructure the Economy and increase productivity productivity. Steering committee and technical ones have been established. Reduce unemploym ent 13 of 29 NES Horizons

14 NES Policies and Economic Growth Spur investment Economic empowerment for females Economic growth Human capital Enhance business environment 14 of 29

15 Prioritizing sectors: Where to concentrate :value added, trade and/or employment L e v e l o f Skill Level Education The size of the bubble indicts the sector s share of employment Telecommunications Financial and insurance services IT Bubble size = share of employment Air transport Medicine industries s k i l l s Construction electricity and water Health Restaurants and hotels Trade Agriculture Mining Transformative Industries Commercial trading 15 of 29 22/31 International trade

16 280, , , , , , ,707 Migrant Workers and Replacement policies Legal Migrant workers 340, , , , , , , , , , More than 60% are Egyptians. 16 of 29 MOL

17 Jordanians Vs. Migrants..Replacement is the tool Legal Migrants 4% 0% 315,045 Employed 1,398,030 %26 96% %10 %64 Illegal Migrants 0%4% **300,000 unemployed 209,569 40% 51% 96% 9% 17 of 29 Tawjihi and below Bachelor and above Diploma DOS, MOL

18 Thousands Labour market indicators , توجيهي فما دون Training and replacement دبلوم متوسط Correct Mismatch Jordanians المشتغلون Employed االردن ون المتعطلون Unemployed االردن ون Jordanians العمالة Migrants الوافدة بكالوريوس فأعلى Tawjihi and below Diploma Bachelor and above Replacement policies How?? Vocational and technical training 18 of 29

19 Replacement scenarios 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 Employed (Tawjihi and below) estimates 1,044, % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Unemployment scenarios 13.0% 12.8% 12.7% 11.9% 10.6% 10.3% 10.1% 9.2% 950, , , , , % 4.0% 2.0% 850, % 800,000 0% 10% 15% 50% 0% 10% 15% 50% البطالةOverall االجمالية (توجيهي below فماand دونTawjihi )البطالة 19 of 29 MOL estimates

20 Created Jobs and Demand the Evidence Created Jobs as according to qualifications بكالور وس فأعلى دبلوم تلمذه مهن ة ثانوي فما دون 20 of 29 Sorce: DoS

21 Active Labour Market Programs (ALMP) Employment fairs Micro finance Employment Tools Satellite Units Training and Employment programs 21 of 29 21

22 Ministry of Labour and supporting institutions VTC Training عدد الملتحق ن Trainees المنتظم ن عدد الخر ج ن Graduates DEF indicators] NET_ Construction sector of عدد المشتغل ن بفرص عدد الملتحق ن بالتدر ب time دائمة Full ف قطاع االنشاءات Trainees عمل workers عدد فرص العمل عدد المشار ع Projects الممولة Jobs المولدة created % of the beneficiaries are females Source: MOL, VTC, NET, DEF

23 Satellite Units 23 of 29 23

24 MoL Procedures toward mitigating the impact of the Syrian crisis Finalizing Jordan Compact The Rule of origin (RoO) instructions to encourage investments. The Target for 2016 around 50,000 work permits. Encouraging Employment intensive programs (EIP) (KfW, ILO, GIZ) to create more jobs. Stop recruitment of new Migrants Grace periods for issuing work permits for Syrians Contact unions and cooperatives to issue work permits in agriculture and construction sectors. Relaxed inspection campaigns. Daily work permits are increasing sharply. 24 of 29 24

25 Registered Syrians on UNHCR data base 25 of 29 UNHCR

26 14,531 12,262 5,883 5,328 4,543 3,481 3,076 2,451 2,101 2,067 1,782 1,643 1,555 1,377 1,146 1,102 1,093 1,008 84,067 The Distribution of Registered Syrians on UNHCR data base Education level (18 years and above) profession 515,887 Refugees have reported their educational status 79,500 Refugees have reported having no education 66,951 Refugees have not provided any data 233,500 Adults above and equal age ,915 Adults reported on the current or previous occupation 62,585 Adults reported no occupation 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, of 29 ACCOUNTANTS ELECTRONICS SECONDARY MOTOR VEHICLE BLACKSMITHS AND PRIMARY EDUCATION BAKERS, PASTRY - HAIRDRESSERS, BARB COOKS CARPENTERS AND TAILORS, DRESSMAKE GENERAL MANAGERS SALES SALESPERSONS CAR, TAXI AND VAN FARMERS (CROP AND BUILDERS FARM-HANDS & HOUSEKEEPERS UNHCR

27 Number of Syrian Work permits ,783 28, of 29

28 Other Socio-Economic Labour market related policies Minimum wage Tripartite committee to revise the minimum wage taking into consideration: Standard of livings, inflation rate, competiveness of the economy, cost of production..etc. Child labour Enforce the labour law Anti-Human trafficking Detailed inspection Enforce law Follow international standards. 28 of 29 28

29 Thank you Q & A 29