Election Chartbook. A compendium of slides on the 2016 election

Transcription

1 Election Chartbook A compendium of slides on the 2016 election October 20, 2016 Producer: Owen Minott Contributions from: Alex Perry, Katharine Conlon, Justin C. Brown, Owen Minott, Ben Booker, Libbie Wilcox, Madelaine Pisani Director: Afzal Bari

2 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Reference Slides and Election Indicators Chapter 2: Polling Numbers and Other Statistics Chapter 3: Campaign Finance and Super PACs.. 60 Chapter 4: Clinton s Campaign Chapter 5: Trump s Campaign Chapter 6: Issues and Events Impacting the Election Chapter 7: Trump and Clinton on the Issues Chapter 8: Battleground State Strategies Chapter 9: Debate Intel Submit suggestions and feedback to ominott@nationaljournal.com

3 Chapter 1 Reference Slides and Election Indicators

4 STATE OF THE RACE State of the presidential race: July 2016 General election polling Polling averages by HuffPost Pollster as of 10/19/ % 40.7% Right Direction Wrong Track All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are on the wrong track? Clinton Trump Since the first debate, and the following leaked tape of Trump s comments about sexually assaulting women, Trump has steadily fallen in the polls Presidential approval rating 51.3% President Obama has seen his approval ratings consistently rise since Christmas In December his approval rating was averaging at about 43%. While the President has seen his approval ratings rise, boding well for Clinton, most still believe that the nation is on the wrong track, giving hope to Donald Trump s campaign. Sources: Kyle Trygstad, Where Things Stand at the Midpoint of the Year, National Journal, July 5, 2016; Huffpost Pollster,, October 19, 2016 Justin C. Brown 4

5 COOK POLITICAL REPORT ELECTORAL RATINGS Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio are complete toss ups Map of Cook Political Report s electoral college ratings Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican WA CA OR NV ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT ME RI CT NJ DE MD DC NH MA AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL Source: Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings, September 23, October 19, 2016 Ben Booker and Owen Minott

6 COOK POLITICAL REPORT ELECTORAL RATINGS Cook ratings point too close race in presidential election The Cook Political Report: Electoral College ratings Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R 15 STATES 3 STATES* 5 STATES 4 STATES* 3 STATES 3 STATES 18 STATES California (55) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) D.C. (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maine-01 (1) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) New Jersey (14) New Mexico (5) New York (29) Oregon (7) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (12) Maine-AL (2) Minnesota (10) Virginia (13) Michigan (16) New Hampshire (4) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10) Colorado (9) Florida (29) Nebraska-02 (1) Nevada (6) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Arizona (11) Georgia (16) Iowa (6) Maine-02 (1) Indiana (11) Missouri (10) Utah (6) Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Mississippi (6) Montana (3) Nebraska-AL (2) Nebraska-01 (1) Nebraska-03 (1) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Carolina (9) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (38) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3) 188 EV 25 EV 59 EV 70 EV 33 EV 27 EV 136 EV *Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes Source: Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings, September 30, October 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. and Madelaine Pisani

7 Johnson, Stein fade in closing weeks as young voters move away from third parties Voters age in four-way race Quinnipiac national pool: September 8 13 v. October 5 6 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline Analysis Young voters have shifted their support from third party candidates to Clinton over the last month Johnson s support among millennials declined 18 percentage points, while Stein s support fell 6 percentage points Sources: Colin Diersing, Johnson, Stein fade in closing weeks, National Journal, October 11, October 14, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 2

8 More traditionally Republican editorial boards come out in support of Clinton Conservative newspaper endorsement tracker HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline Name Date of last Dem endorsement Date of Clinton endorsement Over 75 years September 7, 2016 Over 100 years September 23, 2016 Never in their 36-year history September 27, 2016 Never in their 148-year history September 30, 2016 Over 100 years October, 9, 2016 Sources: Karyn Bruggeman, Clinton draws large crowd at Ohio State, National Journal, October 11, October 14, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 4

9 PRESIDENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC POLLING Women favor Clinton,,en lean Trump this election cycle Support for presidential candidates and parties by gender Pew Research Center, August September 2016 Trump s margin of lead in polls Clinton s margin of lead in polls GOP s margin of lead among all registered voters Democrats margin of lead among all registered voters Men Women Source: Pew Research Center, October 18, 2016 Owen Minott Jr.

10 PRESIDENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC POLLING Clinton has overwhelming lead among African American voters Support for presidential candidates and parties by race Pew Research Center, August September 2016 Trump s margin of lead in polls Clinton s margin of lead in polls GOP s margin of lead among all registered voters Democrats margin of lead among all registered voters White Black Latino Source: Pew Research Center, October 18, 2016 Owen Minott Jr.

11 PRESIDENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC POLLING Clinton team hopes for high youth turnout on election day Support for presidential candidates and parties by age group Pew Research Center, August September 2016 Trump s margin of lead in polls Clinton s margin of lead in polls GOP s margin of lead among all registered voters Democrats margin of lead among all registered voters Young voters for candidates for parties Early middle-aged voters for candidates for parties Late middle-aged voters for candidates for parties Older voters 65+ for candidates for parties Source: Pew Research Center, October 18, 2016 Owen Minott Jr.

12 Voters with postgraduate degrees prefer Clinton PRESIDENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC POLLING Support for presidential candidates and parties by age group Pew Research Center, August September 2016 Trump s margin of lead in polls Clinton s margin of lead in polls GOP s margin of lead among all registered voters Democrats margin of lead among all registered voters Postgrad College grad Some college even High School or less Source: Pew Research Center, October 18, 2016 Owen Minott Jr.

13 THIRD PARTY CAMPAIGNS Third party challengers prepare their campaigns for 2016, Libertarian ticket may be attractive to voters Major third party candidates in 2016 Name Gary Johnson Name Jill Stein Party Libertarian Party Green Last Political Position Held Governor of New Mexico ( ) Last Political Position Held Lexington, MA Town Meeting Member ( ) Vice President William Weld, Former Gov. of Massachusetts Vice President TBD Analysis The Johnson-Weld ticket was confirmed on May 29 and became the first ticket of any party to consist of two governors since the 1948 election cycle. Gary Johnson is running on a platform that is socially liberal and fiscally conservative, a political ideology that currently resonates well in the Mountain West and the Northeast: two regions in which both candidates have political experience. Johnson was shown to be polling at 13% in the state of Utah, a historically Republican state that largely refuses to back Donald Trump. Nationally, he has hovered around 7%. The ticket is currently on the ballot in 37 states and working on access in all 50 states. Analysis Jill Stein has yet to be officially awarded the Green Party nomination, however she is seen as the presumptive nominee after winning nominating contests in 29 states. Stein has committed to running on a platform that very much resembles Bernie Sanders policy goals but Stein s approach has been called slightly more pacifist and more ambitious. Stein has been polling nationally around 5% but has failed to show a promising regional appeal from which she could make an impact on the electoral college vote. The Green Party is expected to have ballot access in 47 states as 3 states petition processes have given the party trouble. Sources: Julia Azari, The States that Love (and Hate) Third-Party Candidates, FiveThirtyEight, July 6, 2016; Libertarian Party, 2016 Presidential Ballot Access Map, ; Bernie Quigley. Gary Johnson and William Weld Could Bring a Libertarian Awakening, The Hill, May 23, 2016; Nora Kelly Gary Johnson is Having a Good Day, The Atlantic, May 24,2016; Lindsay Castleberry, Right Down the Middle: Gary Johnson Sticks to the Issues, Fox Business, July 6, 2016; Bill Scher, Think You ve got it Locked, Hillary? Meet Jill Stein, Politico, June 19, 2016; Jill 2016, Dr. Jill Stein Secures Green Presidential Nomination, June 15, September 30, 2016 Justin C. Brown 13

14 2016 ELECTION CALENDAR 2016 election calendar Election Date Debate FEC Deadline Convention March April May June July August September October November December Mar. I: Caucuses (AK GOP, CO Dem., CO GOP, MN, ND GOP, WY GOP) Primaries (AL, AR, GA, MA, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA) Mar. 3: Fox News GOP Primary Debate Mar. 5: LA Primary, GOP Caucuses (KY, ME, KS), Dem. Caucuses (KS, NE) Mar. 6: ME Dem. Caucus, PR GOP Primary, Democratic Primary Debate Mar. 8: Primaries (MI, MS, ID Rep.), HI GOP Caucus Mar. 9: Univision/The Washington Post Democratic Primary Debate Mar. 10: CNN/Salem Radio GOP Primary Debate Mar. 15: Primaries (IL, MO, FL, NC, OH), MP GOP caucus Mar. 22: AZ Primary, Caucuses (ID Dem., UT Dem., UT Rep.) Mar. 26: Dem. Caucuses (AK, HI, WA) Apr. 5: WI Primary Apr. 9: WY Dem. Caucus Apr. 14: CNN/NY1 Democratic Primary Debate Apr. 15: FEC Filing Deadline Apr. 19: NY Primary Apr. 26: Primaries (CT, DE, PA, MD, RI) May 3: IN Primary May 10: Primaries (NE GOP, WV) May 17: Primaries (KY Dem., OR) May 24: WA GOP Primary June 7: Primaries (CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD), ND Dem. Caucus June 14: DC Dem. Primary June 28: UT Primary July 15: FEC Filing Deadline July 18-21: Republican Nat l Convention (Cleveland, OH) July 25-28: Democratic Nat l Convention (Philadelphia, PA) Sept. 26: First Presidential Debate Oct. 4: Vice Presidential Debate Oct. 9: Second Presidential Debate Oct. 15: FEC Filing Deadline Oct. 19: Third Presidential Debate Nov. 8: Election day Sources: Washington Post, 2016 Primary Debate Schedules, March 16, 2015; FrontloadingHQ, The 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar, September 30, 2016 Katharine Conlon, Justin Brown and Christine Yan 14

15 AP calls Democratic presidential primary for Hillary Clinton, Trump clinches GOP nomination 2016 PRESIDENTIAL DELEGATE TRACKER Democratic delegate count Allocated Delegates 2,383 Delegates Needed to Win the Democratic Nomination Republican delegate count Allocated Delegates 1,237 Delegates Needed to Win the Republican Nomination Clinton Win: 2,806/4,765 Trump Win Total 2,472 Delegates Needs 672 delegates Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns the first week of May Sanders Short 503 delegates Sources: Associated Press, Delegate Tracker; Politico, Delegate Tracker. September 30, 2016 Alexander Perry, Christine Yan, and Katharine Conlon 15

16 HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE Pew analysis shows Hispanic perceptions of parties largely unchanged Which party has more concern for Latinos Pew Research Center National Survey of Latinos, August 23 September 21 Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline Democratic Party Republican Party No difference Analysis 75% of Hispanic registered voters have discussed Trump s comments about Hispanics and other minorities in the last year 74% of Hispanic registered voters who have discussed Trump s comments are absolutely certain they will vote Sources: Ally Mutnick and Colin Diersing, PEW analysis shows Hispanic perceptions of parties largely unchanged, October 13, October 14, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 16

17 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP California, Texas, Florida and New York hold large electoral power Number of electoral votes per state Analysis The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and a majority of 270 electoral votes is needed to elect a President. Each state is allocated electors based on the number of members of Congress it has. In addition, DC has 3 electors. Except for Maine and Nebraska, states have a winner-take-all system which allots all the electoral votes in the state to the winning candidate. Source: U.S. Electoral College, Distribution of Electoral Votes, National Archives, December 10, 2010; National Journal Research, September 30, 2016 Katharine Conlon, Christine Yan 17

18 CONSISTENTLY DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN STATES Based on past presidential elections, Democrats may hold a slight advantage heading into 2016 general election States that voted consistently in the past six presidential elections Voted Republican every election since 1992 Voted Democratic every election since 1992 Share of Electoral Votes Historically Won by Democrats and Republicans since needed to win presidential election Analysis Democrats won 18 states plus the District of Columbia six times in a row, which in 2016 would earn 242 electoral votes, about 90 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. In contrast, Republicans consistently carried 13 states over the last six elections, which in 2016 would earn the party 102 electoral votes, 38 percent of the 270 needed to win. For more information on the political climate of the presidential primary, read Charlie Cook s analysis. Sources: Archives.gov, US Electoral College ; National Journal, Charlie Cook, Is Clinton s Tide Shifting? ; Politifact.com, 18 States Have Voted Democratic in Six Consecutive Elections with 242 Electoral Votes, George Will Says September 30, 2016 Christine Yan 18

19 EARLY VOTING MAP 34 states allow a form of in-person early voting In-person early voting laws, by state Early in-person voting No early in-person voting Analysis 13 highlighted states do not legally have early voting but have In-person absentee voting, allowing a voter to apply in person for an absentee ballot, without an excuse, and cast that ballot in one trip to an election official s office. Sources: National Conference of State Legislatures, Absentee and Early Voting, January 5, 2016; U.S. Vote Foundation, State Election Dates and Deadlines, Accessed February 12, 2016 September 30, 2016 Justin C. Brown 19

20 HISTORICAL ELECTION TRENDS After two-term presidencies, parties rarely maintain control of the White House Presidential election results following 2 nd presidential term Year President Party 2 nd Term Approval Party Election Result 1960 Eisenhower Republican 61% Democrats take White House 1968 Kennedy/Johnson Democrat 50% Republicans take White House 1976 Nixon/Ford Republican 53% Democrats take White House 1988 Reagan Republican 55% Republicans keep White House 2000 Clinton Democrat 61% Republicans take White House (Dems win popular vote) 2008 G. W. Bush Republican 37% Democrats take White House 2016 Obama Democrat 50%? Sources: Post-World War II Presidential Elections Following Second Presidential Term, Cook Political Report, Dece,ber 6, 2016; Presidential Approval Ratings -- Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends, Gallup; RealClearPolitics, September 30, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 20

21 The Democratic advantage: a diversifying electorate PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS BY RACE Percentage of voters in past presidential elections by race Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Analysis Democrats hopes of holding the White House rest on remobilizing the Obama coalition of millennials, single women, and nonwhite voters Minorities are less likely to vote GOP; the trend of a diversifying electorate in recent elections is an advantage for Democrats Contributions from Josh Krashaaur Sources: Thom File, The Diversifying Electorate Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elections), Census.gov, May 2013 September 30, 2016 Christine Yan 21

22 PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL AND DESIRE FOR CHANGE The GOP advantage: desire for change Percentage responding to question: All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are on the wrong track? Wrong Direction Right Direction Wrong Direction: 66% Obama s presidential job approval (Gallup Poll) Disapprove Approve Disapprove: 50% Right Direction: 20% Approve: 46% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Sources: Gallup.com, Jan 4-10, 2016; NBC/WSJ Poll, Dec 6-9, September 30, 2016 Christine Yan, Justin C. Brown 22

23 2012 VOTER DATA New data shows that 2012 voters were whiter, older and less educated than previously thought Voter data: exit polls v. voter file 2012 Election Exit Polls Voter File The voter file, a compilation of local records of all registered voters, is a more reliable sources than exit polls. Census data closely mirrored the voter file numbers. Why this is good news for Trump: Exit poll data from 2012 led many to believe that Republicans would need to make inroads with young and non-white voters to win future elections Trump has not successfully courted those two demographics, but he polls well with old, uneducated whites However, the new voter file and census data suggests that Trump may have a path to victory that does not require increased support from minority and young voters Source: Nate Cohn, There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That s Good News for Trump, The New York Times, June 9, September 30, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 23

24 VOTER REGISTRATION DATA GOP making gains in swing state voting registration Registered voters, by party Millions of people Democrats 2014 Democrats 2016 Republicans 2014 Republicans 2016 Republicans have a much a greater increase in voter registration than Democrats in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Iowa However, Democrats have done a better job at increasing voter turnout in Hispanic-heavy western states Colorado, Nevada and Arizona Source: State registration data; Ben Schrekinger, Hope for Trump: GOP Winning Registration Race in Key States, Politico, August 22, 2016; John McCormick, Battleground- State Voter Registration Gives Democrats Early Edge, Bloomberg, March 13, September 30, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 24

25 2016 and future elections may see new swing states NEW POTENTIAL BATTLEGROUND STATES 4 new potential battleground states Utah has been one of the most reliably red states in the US, voting Republican in each of the past 12 presidential elections. A June poll had Clinton and Trump tied with 35%; Libertarian Gary Johnson trails with 13%. Mormons could play a role in turning Utah blue. In the GOP primary, Trump came in last place and over 50 points behind Cruz. Mitt Romney, a prominent Mormon, has been a vocal critic of Trump. In Georgia, Clinton is looking to replicate her husband s success: Bill Clinton won the state in Despite Republicans holding all statewide positions and winning the last five presidential elections here, the four major polls from May had Trump leading by less than 10% (his largest lead was 9% and his smallest was 1). Clinton polls much, much better among black Georgians, and 81% of the states growth between came from minorities. Arizona is home to the fifth-highest number of eligible Hispanic voters in all of the states, although less than half of the Hispanic population is eligible to vote due to a lack of voter registration or citizenship. Reports show Hispanic voter registration on the rise, and 89% of Hispanic people view Trump unfavorably. A June poll in the state showed Trump with only a 4- point lead. Michigan has voted blue in the past six elections, but Trump s populist rhetoric and aggressive push against trade deals could carry him to victory. Polls from early spring had Clinton up by double digits, but a late May poll had her up only 4 points. Source: Ben Kamisar, 5 Unexpected States That Could Be Battlegrounds, The Hill, June 6, October 3, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 25

26 VOTING RATES BY AGE Americans 45 and over are more likely to vote than younger Americans Reported voting rates in presidential election years, by age Sources: United State Census, Reported Voting Rates in Presidential Election Years, by Selected Characteristics: November 1964 to 2012, Historical Time Series Tables, October 3, 2016 Katharine Conlon 26

27 VOTING RATES BY GENDER In recent years, females have been more likely to vote than males at the polls Reported voting rates in presidential election years, by gender Male Female Sources: United State Census, Reported Voting Rates in Presidential Election Years, by Selected Characteristics: November 1964 to 2012, Historical Time Series Tables, October 3, 2016 Katharine Conlon 27

28 PARTY IDENTIFICATION Identification with U.S. political parties nears all-time low U.S. party identification Yearly averages, all adults Republican Independent Democratic When asked which party they lean towards, independents split evenly between Democrats (16%) and Republicans (16%) The number of adults identifying as Democrats (29%) is at an all-time historical low since Gallup began asking this question in 1958 Source: Gallup, Democratic, Republican Identification Near Historical Lows, January 11, September 30, 2016 Owen Minott 28

29 PROBLEMS FACING THE US Government is seen as biggest problem in US second year in a row Percentage of respondents on most important problem facing the US Annual average percentage across monthly measures for each year Government Economy Unemployment Iraq/ISIS Immigration Government Economy Unemployment, Immigration Iraq/ISIS Sources: Lydia Saad, Government Named Top U.S. Problem for Second Straight Year, Gallup, January 4, 2016 October 3, 2016 Christine Yan 29

30 PRESENTATION CENTER VOTER TURNOUT IN PRIMARY ELECTIONS High voter turnout for primary elections in the rust belt 2016 primary presidential election voter turnout rate Based on Voting-Eligible Population 1-20% 21% - 30% 31% - 40% 40%+ WA OR ID MT WY ND SD MN WI MI VT NY ME NH CA NV UT CO NE KS IA MO IL OH IN KY WV PA VA AZ NM OK AR TN NC SC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL No data available: CA, CO, MT, NJ, NM, SD, WA, WY Source: Michael P McDonald, State Turnout Rates, 2016, United States Elections Project, October 3, 2016 Katharine Conlon 30

31 PRIMARY VOTES Trump received the most GOP primary votes in history Number of primary votes for the Republican nominee, in millions Source: Gwynn Guilford, Trump Really Did Win the Most Republican Primary Votes in History Technically, Quartz, June 9, October 3, 2016 Katharine Conlon 31

32 PRIMARY VOTES Obama holds the record for primary votes from his 2008 campaign Number of primary votes for the nominees of both parties, in millions Source: Gwynn Guilford, Trump Really Did Win the Most Republican Primary Votes in History Technically, Quartz, June 9, October 3, 2016 Katharine Conlon 32

33 PRESENTATION CENTER REPUBLICANS AGAINST TRUMP Trump s campaign success is dividing Republicans in many offices throughout the nation Current Republican elected officials who will not support Donald Trump 3 House Representatives: Scott Rigell (VA-02) Carlos Curbelo (FL-26) Glenn Grothman (WI-06) 2 Senators: This man does things and says things that I teach my sixand three-year-olds not to say I could never look them in the eye and tell them that I support someone so crass and insulting and offensive Rep. Carlos Curbelo Lindsey Graham (SC) Ben Sasse (NE) I will not support a nominee so lacking in the judgment, temperament and character needed to be our nation s commander in chief. Accordingly, if left with no alternative, I will not support Trump in the general election should he become our Republican nomine. Rep. Scott Rigell 2 Governors: I m not going to vote for him in November I m not willing to concede that the Republican nomination is over and you guys shouldn t either. Gov. Charlie Baker Susana Martinez (NM) Charlie Baker (MA) Sources: Anna Merod, Christina Coleburn and MSNBC Staff, Meet the Republicans Speaking Out Against Trump, MSNBC, March 14, March 24, 2016 Justin C. Brown 33

34 David Wasserman: over 100 House Republicans yet to endorse Trump by name Level of support for Trump among Republicans in the House % of Republican Representatives Number of Representatives 27.9% 27.5% 18.6% GOP CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT FOR TRUMP From the Cook Political Report Key: 1. Endorsed Trump by name before the Indiana primary* 2. Endorsed Trump by name after the Indiana primary* 3. Has endorsed Trump by name, with reservations 4. Has stated support for the "nominee," but not by name 5. Hasn't made a definitive public statement regarding Trump 6. Publicly undecided on whether to support Trump 7. Has stated he/she will not vote for or endorse Trump 4.5% 8.5% 8.1% *After the Indiana primary, Ted Cruz dropped out of the race and Trump became the presumptive nominee 4.9% Most Supportive of Trump Least Supportive of Trump David Wasserman, Republicans' Support for Trump Depends on Their Vulnerability, Cook Political Report, July 8, July 20, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 34

35 THIRD PARTY BALLOT ACCESS Gary Johnson leads Libertarian party to ballot access in all 50 states Libertarian party presidential ballot access On the ballot WA OR MT ND MN ME ID WY SD WI MI NY CA AK NV AZ UT CO NM NE KS OK TX IA MO AR LA IL MS IN OH KY TN AL GA WV SC PA VA NC Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party currently have the most accessible third party ticket as they are confirmed to be on the ballot in all 50 states and DC. This marks the first time since 1996 that a third-party candidate has secured full ballot access across the country. FL Source: Libertarian Party, 2016 Presidential Ballot Access Map, September 14, 2016 Justin C. Brown 1

36 THIRD PARTY BALLOT ACCESS Jill Stein gains ballot access in most states, only shut out of 3 states Green party presidential ballot access On the ballot Write-in option only No ballot line or write-in option WA OR MT ND MN ME ID WY SD WI MI NY CA NV UT CO NE KS IA MO IL IN OH KY WV PA VA AK AZ NM TX OK AR LA MS TN AL GA SC NC The Green Party has ballot access in 44 states and DC while voters can write-in Jill Stein in GA, IN and NC. FL Source: Green Party US, Ballot Access, September 14, 2016 Justin C. Brown 2

37 Chapter 2 Polling Numbers and Other Statistics

38 GENERAL ELECTION POLLING Clinton leads Trump in polls across the board Comparison of national polls Poll: ABCNews/WaPo CBS/NYT CNN/ORC Fox News NBC/WSJ Date of Last Poll: 10/22-10/25 9/28-10/2 10/20-10/23 10/15-10/17 10/10-10/13 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Undecided Source: Huffpost Pollster, 2016 General Election: Trump v. Clinton v. Johnson, October 26, October 26, 2016 Justin Brown and Owen Minott

39 PRESIDENTIAL POLLING If Trump were to win the election it would be the biggest late comeback in the history of presidential polls Major moments from the Clinton and Trump campaigns RealClearPolitics National Polling Average in a 2-way matchup Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Oct Benghazi hearings 12/7/2015 Trump s Muslim Ban 2/1/2016 Clinton wins the Iowa Caucuses 6/6/2016 Clinton becomes the presumptive nominee 7/25-28/2016 Democratic National Convention 45 8/6/2015 First Republican Debate /13/2015 Paris Attacks 2/9/2016 Trump wins NH Primary 5/3/2016 Ted Cruz drops out, Trump becomes presumptive nominee 7/18-21/2016 Republican National Convention 30 7/5/2015 9/5/ /5/2015 1/5/2016 3/5/2016 5/5/2016 7/5/2016 9/5/ /7/2016 Washington Post uncovers a 2005 tape of Trump making lewd remarks Sources: Eliza Collins, 12 quotable moments from Hillary Clinton s primary campaign, USA Today, June 7, 2016; Clare Foran, The end of a political revolution, The Atlantic, July 6, 2016; RealClearPolitics 2-way polling average, September 22, 2016; Liz Kreutz, Hillary Clinton s 10 memorable moments in a year long campaign, ABC, April 12, 2016; RealClrearPolitics National Polling Average, October 19, October 19, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 4

40 The release of Trump s 1995 tax returns and the 2005 Access Hollywood video weigh heavily on his campaign PRESIDENTIAL POLLING Major moments in Trump s campaign from 9/7/2016 to 10/19/2016 RealClearPolitics National Polling Average in a 2-way matchup with Clinton Donald Trump 9/10/2016 Trump embraces Clinton s deplorables terminology. Trump s poll numbers rise from 42.8% to 43.4% over two weeks. 9/26/2016 First Presidential Debate 9/16/2016 Trump admits Obama is a citizen. Trump s numbers go from 43.9% to 44.2% over two week. 10/3-4/2016 The New York Times breaks a story revealing Trump s 1995 tax returns. The Vice Presidential Debate is held in which Pence outperforms Trump according to most pundits. Trump s poll numbers go from 44.3% to 41.9% over two weeks. 10/7-19/2016 The New York Times, People Magazine and CNN run stories about multiple women who claim to have been sexually abused or assaulted by Trump. Trump s poll numbers drop from 42.5% to 41.9%. 10/9/2016 Second Presidential Debate 10/7/2016 The Washington Post uncovers a 2005 tape of Trump and Billy Bush making lewd remarks about a woman. 40 9/7/2016 9/14/2016 9/21/2016 9/28/ /5/ /12/ /19/2016 Sources: Katie Smith, The rise of Trump: 26 weeks that changed 2016, USA Today, December 20, 2015; James Fallows, The daily Trump: filling a time capsule, The Atlantic, September 8, 2016; Becket Adams, A working timeline of Donald Trump s campaign for the GOP nomination, Washington Examiner, May 7, 2016; RealClearPolitics 2-way polling average, September 22, 2016 October 19, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 9

41 HILLARY CLINTON FAVORABILITY RATINGS Hillary Clinton s favorability has declined since 2011 Jan 2009 October 2016 Hillary Clinton favorability ratings Favorable Undecided Unfavorable 53.2% 43.3% Analysis Hillary Clinton s favorability has steadily declined over the past few years She has been more unfavored than favored since mid-2015 Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: Hillary Clinton Favorable Rating, October 20, October 20, 2016 Christine Yan, Libbie Wilcox, Owen Minott and Justin Brown

42 PRESIDENTIAL POLLING As Trump s campaign falters among accusations of sexual assault, Clinton s poll numbers rise Major moments in Clinton s campaign from 9/7/2016 to 10/19/2016 RealClearPolitics National Polling Average in a 2-way matchup with Trump Hillary Clinton 9/10/2016 Clinton apologizes for deplorables comment. 9/26/2015 In the first presidential debate Clinton is considered by many as the winner. Clinton also makes headlines by referencing Alicia Machado s experience as Trump s Miss Universe. Clinton s poll numbers rise from 45.9% to 47.9% over two weeks /12/2016 Clinton takes a day off to recover from pneumonia. Clinton s numbers fall then recover to around 46%. 10/7-19/2016 Trump s 2005 Access Hollywood video dominates headlines and is a leading topic in the second debate. After Trump says the video is just locker room talk, multiple women accuse Trump of sexual abuse or assault. WikiLeaks slowly releases thousands of s from Clinton s campaign staff. The s offer a glimpse into the inner workings of the Clinton campaign. Over these 12 days Clinton s poll numbers rise from 47.9% to 49.1%. 42 9/7/2016 9/14/2016 9/21/2016 9/28/ /5/ /12/ /19/2016 Sources: Scott Detrow, What s in the latest WikiLeaks dump oc Clinton campaign s, NPR, October 12, 2016; Clare Foran, The end of a political revolution, The Atlantic, July 6, 2016; RealClearPolitics 2-way polling average, September 22, 2016; Liz Kreutz, Hillary Clinton s 10 memorable moments in a year long campaign, ABC, April 12, 2016; RealClrearPolitics National Polling Average, September 24, October 19, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 14

43 Donald Trump s favorability has decreased in recent months DONALD TRUMP FAVORABILITY RATINGS May 2015 September 2016 Donald Trump favorability ratings Favorable Undecided Unfavorable 61.8% 34.3% Analysis Donald Trump has consistently been more unfavored than favored since May 2015 Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: Donald Trump Favorable Rating, October 20, October 20, 2016 Christine Yan, Libbie Wilcox, and Justin Brown, and Katharine Conlon

44 GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS Clinton s lead over Trump has narrowed in recent Colorado polls June 2016 Oct 2016 Colorado polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 8 points in the most recent Colorado poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

45 Clinton starts to pull ahead in Nevada state polling GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS May 2016 Oct 2016 Nevada polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 7 points in the latest Nevada poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

46 GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS Clinton pulls ahead of Trump in recent Florida state polling Jan 2016 Oct 2016 Florida polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 4 points in the most recent Florida poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

47 Trump pulls ahead in Iowa state polling GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS June 2016 Oct 2016 Iowa polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Trump leads Clinton by 5 points in the most recent Iowa poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

48 Clinton holds onto her lead in Michigan state polling GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS May 2016 Oct 2016 Michigan polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 9 points in the latest Michigan poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

49 Clinton still leads in New Hampshire GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS May 2016 Oct 2016 New Hampshire polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 7 points in the latest New Hampshire poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

50 Clinton has a narrow lead over Trump in the most recent North Carolina polls GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS May 2016 Oct 2016 North Carolina polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 2 points in the latest North Carolina poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

51 Clinton and Trump are head to head in the most recent Ohio state polls GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS May 2016 Oct 2016 Ohio polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton and Trump are tied in the latest Ohio poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

52 Clinton maintains lead over Trump in Pennsylvania state polling GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS June 2016 Oct 2016 Pennsylvania polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 6 points in the latest Pennsylvania poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

53 GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS Clinton takes large lead in Virginia May 2016 Oct 2016 Virginia polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 13 points in the latest Virginia poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 13, 2016; Alexandra Jaffe and Ali Vitali, Trump s campaign is pulling out of Virginia, NBC News, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

54 Clinton s lead widens in recent Wisconsin state polling GENERAL ELECTION BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLING NUMBERS June 2016 Oct 2016 Wisconsin polling numbers, by candidate Clinton Trump Undecided Clinton leads Trump by 8 points in the latest Wisconsin poll Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: 2016 Colorado President: Trump vs. Clinton, October 19, October 19, 2016 Christine Yan, Madelaine Pisani, and Katharine Conlon

55 CANDIDATES APPROVAL ABROAD Hillary favored over Trump in every G20 country other than Russia International poll of US presidential candidates YouGov, April 2016 Clinton s lead over Trump The poll included candidates Sanders and Cruz, who have less name recognition abroad Just 2% of Mexicans supported Trump The poll also found President Obama to be tied with Pope Francis as the world s most popular leader *Representative of the online population Russia Source: Will Dahlgreen, Donald Trump Top Pick for US President... in Russia, YouGov, April 18, September 30, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 55

56 Rep. Richard Hanna is the first sitting Republican member of Congress to endorse Clinton PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT TRACKER Number of endorsements from political leaders Candidate Representatives Senators Governors Total Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Source: Aaron Bycoffe, The Endorsement Primary, FiveThirtyEight, June 7, 2016; National Journal Research, 2016; Maxwell Tani, A World-Class Panderer : GOP Congressman Becomes the First to Endorse Hillary Clinton Over Trump, Business Insider, August 2, August 2, 2016 Katharine Conlon 56

57 The Chicago Tribune is the most high-profile media endorsement Johnson has received Endorsements by the top 10 most widely circulated newspapers NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENT TRACKER Name USA Today Not Trump Historically does not endorse candidates The Wall Street Journal The New York Times Clinton Obama Obama Los Angeles Times Clinton Obama Obama New York Post Romney McCain The Mercury News Obama Obama New York Daily News Clinton Romney Obama The Chicago Tribune Johnson Obama Obama Newsday Romney Obama The Washington Post Clinton Obama Obama Source: Reid Wilson, Whip list: Whom the top 100 newspapers have endorsed, The Hill, October 5, October 5, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 57

58 VOTERS FROM RURAL AREAS Rural voters from Vermont, South Carolina and West Virginia showed up at Democratic primaries in large numbers Percentage of people from rural areas voting in Democratic primaries Based on entrance and exit polls for each state primary 0-25% 26% - 50% 51% - 75% 76% - 100% No data WA OR ID MT WY ND SD MN WI MI VT NY ME NH CA NV UT CO NE KS IA MO IL OH IN KY WV PA VA AZ NM OK AR TN NC SC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL No exit poll data available: AZ, RI, and DE Primaries ID Dem., UT Dem., AK Dem., HI Dem., WA Dem. Source: CNN, 2016 Election Center, May 11, May 11, 2016 Katharine Conlon 58

59 VOTERS FROM RURAL AREAS Vermont, Mississippi and West Virginia had large numbers of GOP rural voters at the polls Percentage of people from rural areas voting in GOP primaries, by state Based on entrance and exit polls for each state primary 0-25% 26% - 50% 51% - 75% 76% - 100% No data WA OR ID MT WY ND SD MN WI MI VT NY ME NH CA NV UT CO NE KS IA MO IL OH IN KY WV PA VA AZ NM OK AR TN NC SC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL No exit poll data available: AZ, RI, and DE Primaries, UT GOP, NE GOP Source: CNN, 2016 Election Center, May 11, May 11, 2016 Katharine Conlon 59

60 Chapter 3 Campaign Finance and Super PACs

61 2016 FEC REPORTING DEADLINES Key FEC filing dates in 2016 Monthly deadline Quarterly deadline Pre-General/Post-General deadlines* Year-end deadline* January February March April May June July August September Report Deadlines for Monthly Filers Report Deadlines for Quarterly Filers Jan. 31 (Year-End 2015) Jan. 31 (Year-End 2015) Feb. 20 Apr. 15 Mar. 20 Jul. 15 Apr. 20 Oct. 15 May 20 Jun. 20 Jul. 20 Aug. 20 Sep. 20 Oct. 20 Oct. 27 (Pre-General) Dec. 8 (Post-General) * applies to all filers Oct. 27 (Pre-General) Dec. 8 (Post-General) October November December Source: Federal Election Commission, 2016 Reporting Dates. January 7, 2016 Christine Yan 61

62 FEC FILING FREQUENCIES FEC filing frequencies by type of committee Type of Committee House and Senate Campaign Committees Presidential Campaign Committees National Party Committees State, District, and Local Party Committees Separate Segregated Funds (SSF) PAC Nonconnected (Super) PAC Nonelection (odd-numbered) Year (e.g. 2015) Quarterly Quarterly Monthly Monthly or Semi-annual* (*Committees file semi-annual reports only if they file quarterly reports in election years) Semi-annual* (*If SSF opts for monthly filing in election years, they must file only November & December monthly reports in a nonelection year) Monthly or Semi-annual* (*Super PACs file semi-annual reports only if they file quarterly reports in election years) Federal Election (even-numbered) Year (e.g. 2016) Quarterly Monthly* or Quarterly (*Only if on January 1 of the election year, the committee has received/anticipates receiving contributions aggregating $100,000 or more OR has made/anticipates making expenditures aggregating $100,000 or more) Monthly Monthly or Quarterly* (*Committees that do not engage in reportable federal election activity can opt to file quarterly reports) Monthly or Quarterly Monthly or Quarterly Sources: Federal Election Commission, Campaign Guide for Nonconnected Committees, May 2008; Federal Election Commission, Campaign Guide for Corporations and Labor Organizations, January 2007; Federal Election Commission, Campaign Guide for Political Party Committees, August 2013; Federal Election Commission, 2015 Reporting Dates December 7, 2015 Christine Yan 62

63 2016 ELECTION: FUNDRAISING AND OUTSIDE SPENDING Advocacy groups have distinct benefits and limits Advocacy Groups and Their Regulations DONORS Traditional PACs Contribution Limit Must Disclose Donors? Can Coordinate with Candidate? Can be Primarily Political? Can Expressly Tell Voters Who to Vote For? $5,000 per year Regulator FEC Super PAC Unlimited FEC 501(c)(4) Non-profit Unlimited IRS 527 Non-profit Unlimited FEC Source: Bloomberg Politics, July 31, 2015; OpenSecrets.com: Center for Responsible Politics. April 12, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 63

64 2016 ELECTION: FUNDRAISING AND OUTSIDE SPENDING Clinton has more money left to spend than Trump Presidential candidates money in the bank Millions of dollars; as of September 21 Campaign committee cash on hand (Democrats) Outside groups cash on hand (Democrats) Campaign committee cash on hand (Republicans) Outside groups cash on hand (Republicans) Will Trump s fundraising disadvantage hurt him in the last months of the campaign? Source: Open Secrets/Center for Responsive Politics, September 21, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 64

65 2016 ELECTION: FUNDRAISING AND OUTSIDE SPENDING Clinton has spent more money Trump Money spent by presidential candidates Millions of dollars; as of September 21 Money spent by campaign committee (Democrats) Money spent by outside groups (Democrats) Money spent by campaign committee (Republicans) Money spent by outside groups (Republicans) Source: Open Secrets/Center for Responsive Politics, September 21, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 65

66 Clinton has raised more money than Trump Total money raised by presidential candidates Millions of dollars; as of September ELECTION: FUNDRAISING AND OUTSIDE SPENDING Money raised by campaign committee (Democrats) Money raised by outside groups (Democrats) Money raised by campaign committee (Republicans) Money raised by outside groups (Republicans) Source: Open Secrets/Center for Responsive Politics, September 21, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 66

67 Trump raised $90M in August, reaching a record high for the campaign AUGUST CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISING Self-reported August fundraising levels Clinton s campaign Trump s campaign Although Trump s campaign reached a fundraising high this month, Clinton s campaign raised $53 million more $70 million of Trump s totals came from small donations and $2 million came from Trump himself The Clinton and Trump totals also include the money raised by their joint fundraising committees for the DNC and RNC Trump s campaign made the case this week that it does not need to raise as much money as Clinton in order to win By comparison, in August 2012, Mitt Romney s campaign raised $111 million Source: Candace Smith, Trump campaign announces $90M fundraising haul in August, ABC News, September 8, 2016; Danielle Kurtzleben, Trump continues to trail well behind Clinton in fundraising, NPR, September 8, September 9, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 67

68 Super PACs support Clinton and Trump 2016 ELECTION: FUNDRAISING AND OUTSIDE SPENDING Presidential candidates and their associated organizations Clinton Trump Priorities USA Action Make America Great Again Correct the Record Notes: Clinton s PAC Priorities USA Action supported President Obama s re-election bid in 2012 Sources: Matea Gold and Cristina Rivero, The 2016 Presidential Contenders and Their Big-money Backers, Washington Post, August 11, June 22, 2016 Christine Yan and Owen Minott Jr. 68

69 Money bomb: Trump raises $18M day after debate Presidential campaign fundraising disclosure reports FEC, August 2016 Trump Clinton HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline $18M raised after first debate Background Trump s campaign announced it raised $18 million the day after the debate, almost closing the $18.1 million fundraising gap between Trump and Clinton in August The money came in part from a National Call Day, indicating that much of it came from large donations Sources: Karyn Bruggeman, Trump airs debate grievances, National Journal, September 28, September 30, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 6

70 Chapter 4 Clinton s Campaign

71 TIM KAINE PROFILE Clinton s VP: Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) Biography Senator Tim Kaine has represented Virginia in various public offices including Mayor of Richmond, and as both Governor and Senator of the state. He grew up a Roman Catholic in a suburb of Kansas City. His father ran an ironworking and welding shop where Kaine often worked. Kaine graduated from the University of Missouri in three years and went to Harvard Law school. He took a brief hiatus from studying law to spend nine months teaching in Honduras on a Jesuit missionary trip. Kaine moved to Richmond to be with his wife, Anne Holton, where he began working for a federal judge and as a civil rights lawyer. Kaine won his 2005 gubernatorial race on a quality of life platform that emphasized tax relief for homeowners, a statewide pre-k initiative, and new transportation infrastructure. His opponent criticized Kaine for opposing the death penalty, calling him too liberal for Virginia. Kaine s second year as governor, 2007, was marked by the passage of a $1 billion transportation bill he negotiated with a Republican-controlled legislature and the Virginia Tech mass shooting. When the shooting occurred, which killed 32 students, Kaine flew home from trade negotiations in Japan and was praised for his handling of the tragedy. In February 2007, Kaine endorsed Barack Obama for president. Kaine helped Obama win the Virginia primaries, one of the candidate s most significant victories. After the election, Obama named Kaine chairman of the DNC. Kaine went on to beat George Allan (R-VA) in 2012 for a Virginia senate seat Allan had held from Biography Currently: Junior Senator of Virginia Previously: Governor of Virginia Education: University of Missouri, B.A. (1979) Harvard University, J.D. (1983) Family: Anne Bright Holton (wife), three children Previous Experience Lecturer, University of Richmond School of Law ( , ) Practicing Attorney ( ) City Council, Richmond ( ) Mayor, Richmond ( ) Lt. Governor, Virginia ( ) Governor, Virginia ( ) Chairman, DNC ( ) Senator, Virginia (2012-present) Pro: Kaine speaks Spanish and can campaign easily on Hispanic media. Pro: He will likely have some electoral benefit in Virginia. Pro: He is a seasoned politician and is unlikely to make a gaffe or embarrass Clinton. Kaine as VP Con: Kaine may not excite the base, partly because he is not well-known. Con: He isn t overwhelmingly adored by those familiar with him according to Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight. His lack of popularity could add fuel to frustration from those farther left. Election Results: 2012 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Tim Kaine (D) 53% George Allen (R) 47% Sources: National Journal Research; Harry Enten, Hillary Clinton Picks Tim Kaine, Betting She Can Beat Trump Without a Splashy VP, FiveThirtyEight, July 22, July 25, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 71

72 Clinton s diverse management staff includes Latina, first gay presidential campaign manager Staff leadership Staff Member Role Previous Experience CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES John Podesta Campaign Chair Senior Advisor, President Barack Obama Founder, Center for American Progress Chief of Staff, President Bill Clinton Robby Mook Campaign Manager Executive Director, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) State Director, NV, IN, OH, 2008 Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign Amanda Renteria Political Director Chief of Staff, Sen. Debby Stabenow Candidate for Representative, California s 21 st Congressional District Joel Benenson Chief Strategist and Pollster Founder and CEO, Benenson Strategy Group Chief Pollster and Senior Strategist, Barack Obama Presidential Campaigns Huma Abedin Vice Campaign Chair & Personal Chief of Staff Deputy Chief of Staff, Department of State Aide, Senator Hillary Clinton Intern, First Lady Hillary Clinton Sources: Twitter, 2016; Juliet Eilperin, John Podesta: The Man Behind President Obama s New Environmental Push, Washington Post, March 4, 2014; Linkedin, 2016; Jonathan Bacon, Hillary Clinton s Chief Strategist Joel Benenson on Bringing Campaign Tactics to Brands, Marketing Week, December 10, 2016; BallotPedia, 2016; G. Paul Burnett, The New Nork Times, Redux; Whitehouse.gov; Mark Wilson, Getty Images; Hillary for America, P2016. September 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 72

73 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Clinton s policy advisors come from a range of backgrounds Policy staff Staff Member Role Previous Experience Jake Sullivan Senior Policy Advisor Director of Policy Planning, Department of State Deputy Policy Director, 2008 Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign Senior Policy Advisor and Chief Counsel, Sen. Amy Klobuchar Maya Harris Senior Policy Advisor Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress Vice President, Ford Foundation Executive Director, ACLU North Carolina Ann O Leary Senior Policy Advisor Co-founder, the Opportunity Institute Vice President, Center for the Next Generation Laura Rosenberger Foreign Policy Advisor Chief of Staff, Deputy Secretary of State National Security Council Staff Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016, DCCC, 2016; Center for American Progress, 2016, LinkedIn, 2016; Hillary for America, P2016; Twitter, September 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 73

74 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Clinton s communications staff lead by campaign veterans Communications staff Staff Member Role Previous Experience Jennifer Palmieri Communications Director Deputy Director of Communications, President Obama Senior Vice President, Center for American Progress Spokesperson/Advisor, John Edwards Campaign Press Secretary and Spokesperson, Democratic National Committee Deputy Press Secretary, President Bill Clinton Jim Margolis Media Advisor Media Consultant, 2008 and 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign Partner, GMMB Produced Ads for 1992 Bill Clinton Presidential Campaign Brian Fallon Press Secretary Director, Office of Public Affairs, Department of Justice Spokesman for Attorney General Eric Holder Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; GMMB, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; Hillary for America, P2016. September 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 74

75 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Clinton s outreach staff is young and diverse Field and Outreach Staff (1) Staff Member Role Previous Experience Marlon Marshall Director of State Campaigns and Engagement National Field Director, 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign National Field Director, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Lorella Praeli Latino Outreach Director Director of Advocacy and Policy, We the Dream LaDavia Drane African American Outreach Director Director, Policy and Legislative Affairs, Mayor Muriel Bowser Executive Director, Congressional Black Caucus Legislative Director, Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) Dominic Lowell LGBT Outreach Director Director of Strategic Partnerships, Rock the Vote VP of investment Services, the Democracy Alliance Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016, DCCC, 2016; Center for American Progress, 2016, LinkedIn, Hillary for America, P2016; Image of Lorella Praeli from Reuters. September 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 75

76 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Clinton s outreach staff is young and diverse Field and Outreach Staff (2) Staff Member Role Previous Experience Laura Schiller Director of Congressional Affairs Chief of Staff, Sen. Barbara Boxer Speechwriter, First Lady Hillary Clinton Michelle Kwan Outreach Coordinator Champion Figure Skater Simone Ward Florida State Director National Political Director, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chris Wyant Ohio State Director Ohio State Director, 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016, DCCC, 2016; Center for American Progress, 2016, LinkedIn, 2016; Chrissie Thompson, Cincinnati's Chris Wyant to Run Hillary Clinton's Ohio Campaign, Cincinnati.com, May 3, 2016; Patricia Mazzei, Meet Hillary Clinton s Florida Campaign Staff, the Miami Herald, June 3, 2016; Hillary for America, P2016; Laura Schiller image by Katie Stoops, from Wamu September 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 76

77 Clinton s pollsters helped Obama win in 08 and 12 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Pollsters Staff Member Role Previous Experience John Anzalone Pollster Founder, Anzalone Liszt Grove Research (ALG) Pollster, 2008 & 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign David Binder Pollster Founder, David Binder Research Pollster, 2008 & 2012 Obama Presidential Campaign Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; GMMB, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; Hillary for America, P2016. September 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 77

78 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Clinton picks Salazar as chair of transition Clinton-Kaine Transition Project leadership Staff Member Transition Team Role Previous Experience John Podesta Ken Salazar President (also Campaign Chairman) Chair Senior Advisor, President Barack Obama Founder, Center for American Progress Chief of Staff, President Bill Clinton Secretary of the Interior Senator from Colorado Tom Donilon Co-Chair National Security Advisor, President Obama Jennifer Granholm Co-Chair Governor of Michigan Neera Tanden Co-Chair President, Center fro American Progress Maggie Williams Co-Chair Director, Institute of Politics at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University Rohit Chopra (Not yet announced) Student Loan Ombudsman, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Sources: John Wagner, Clinton s Campaign Team Grows as the Democrat Eyes the White House, The Washington Post, August 16, 2016; Kimberly Hefling and Michael Stratford, Clinton Names Warren Ally to Transition Team, Politico, August 30, Setember 14, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 78

79 Clinton receives support from the President, VP, and Elizabeth Warren Top Clinton endorsements from Thursday, June 9 th CLINTON ENDORSEMENTS ENDORSEMENT ENDORSEMENT ENDORSEMENT I want those of you who have been with me since the beginning of this incredible journey to be the first to know that I'm with her. I am fired up. And I can't wait to get out there and campaign with Hillary." President Barack Obama I'm ready. I am ready to get in this fight and work my heart out for Hillary Clinton to become the next president of the United States and to make sure that Donald Trump never gets anyplace close to the White House" Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Anybody who thinks that whoever the next president is -- and God willing, in my view, it will be Secretary Clinton Vice President Joe Biden Sources: Edward-Isaac Dovere, Joe Biden Endorses Hillary Clinton, Politico, June 9, 2016; Eric Bradner, President Barack Obama Endorses Hillary Clinton in Video, CNN, June 9, 2016; Carrie Dann, Elizabeth Warren Endorses Hillary Clinton on Rachel Maddow Show, NBC, June 9, June 10, 2016 Katharine Conlon 79

80 CLINTON ENDORSEMENTS Clinton receives endorsement from Republican business leaders Previous political contributions to GOP candidates from select business leaders who now endorse Clinton Name Jeff Brotman Position Co-Founder and Chairman of Costco Wholesale Corp. Political Contributions to GOP Candidates $2,700 Jim Cicconi Senior Executive Vice President at AT&T Services Inc. $12,700 Barry Diller Chairman and Senior Executive of IAC and Expedia $2,700 Reed Hastings Founder and CEO of Netflix $2,700 James J. Murran Chairman and CEO of MGM Resorts International $2,300 Sources: Tamara Keith, Republican Executives Are Among Business Leaders Endorsing Clinton, NPR, June 23, June 24, 2016 Katharine Conlon 80

81 SCOTUS STRATEGIES Liberals continue to push for a more left-leaning nominee Preferred liberal picks for the Supreme Court Goodwin Liu, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California Former Professor of Law at U.C. Berkeley, Liu s nomination by Obama to the 9 th Circuit Court of Appeals was blocked in 2011 by Republicans due to his widely known liberal leanings Liu would be the first Asian-American to serve on the court Jane Kelly, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit Judge Considered by Obama as a possible Scalia replacement, Kelly was criticized by conservatives for her work as a public defender representing certain unappealing clients Kelly was confirmed in a 96-0 vote by the Senate in 2013 Nina Pillard, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Judge Pillar, a former Georgetown law professor, now sits on the second highest court in the nation Pillar was part of the legal team that successfully argued to eliminate Virginia Military Institute s discriminatory policies against woman in 1996 Robert Wilkins, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Judge In 1993, Wilkins sued Maryland in one of the first successful Driving While Black racial profiling lawsuits in Wilkins v. Maryland State Police Wilkins is a highly respected judge who has received many accolades for his legal and judicial practice Paul Watford, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit Judge Also considered as a replacement for Scalia, Watford was praised by judges on both sides of the aisle when Obama nominated him to the 9 th circuit in 2011 SCOTUS has ruled in favor of all of Watford s opinions that have come before them, including a critical criminal-justice decision regarding warrants and hotel guest records Sam Baker, Liberals ideal Supreme Court pick, National Journal, September 6, September 7, 2016 Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox 81

82 Chapter 5 Trump s Campaign

83 PRESENTATION CENTER MIKE PENCE PROFILE Trump s VP: Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN) Biography Governor Mike Pence is a lifelong Hoosier elected as the 50 th Governor of Indiana in Pence grew up as a John F. Kennedy-admiring Catholic, but graduated from Hanover College in 1981 as a Republican and an Evangelical Christian. He earned a J.D. from Indiana University School of Law in Following two years of practicing law, Pence ran for Congress twice, unsuccessfully, against incumbent Philip Sharp. He also began broadcasting a conservative talk-radio program called The Mike Pence Show in 1994, which became syndicated statewide. In 2000, Pence ran for Congress again on a platform of across-the-board tax cuts and reform of Medicare financing. Pence was elected to represent Indiana s Sixth Congressional District and served six terms through During that time he served as House Republican Conference Chairman and Chairman of the House Republican Study Committee. In 2011 Pence ran for Governor amid speculation that he was eyeing a run for president. He ran again on a platform of cutting state individual and corporate income taxes and eliminating the estate tax. His opponent criticized him as an elite attack dog of the far right and pointed to his long-standing opposition to Planned Parenthood. Though Pence had a massive financial advantage, he chose not to run negative ads in response. Pence did cut taxes as Governor and won approval for his Healthy Indiana Plan 2.0 in response to the Affordable Care act. He continues to fuel presidential rumors with a recent trip to Israel and a close relationship to the Koch Brothers. Biography Currently: Governor of Indiana Previously: Representative of Indiana s Sixth Congressional District Education: Hanover College (1981) Indiana University, J.D. (1985) Family: Karen (wife), three adult children Previous Experience Counselor, Hanover College Admissions ( ) President, Indiana Policy Review Foundation, conservative think-tank ( ) Host, The Mike Pence Show ( ) Representative, Indiana s Sixth Congressional District ( ) Pro: Pence bring strong support from the Republican establishment. Pro: Trump must carry Indiana to win the general election. Pro: Pence appeals to moderates on immigration issues. Pence as VP Con: Pence does not agree with Trump on his controversial call to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. and called it offensive and unconstitutional. Con: Pence endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz (R- TX) during the primaries. Election Results: 2012 Indiana Gubernatorial Race Mike Pence (R) 49% John Gregg (D) 47% Rupert Boneham (Libertarian) 4% Sources: National Journal Research; Joseph Weber, Christopher Snyder Gov or VP? Indiana s Pence Has Friday Ballot Deadline Foxnews.com, July 11, 2016; Mike Pence Election Results: GOP Wins Indiana Governor s Race, Huffingtonpost.com, November 6, 2012; Carl Cannon, Caitlin Huey-Burns, Does Pence Help Trump? Real Clear Politics, July 14, July 19, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 83

84 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Trump hired the president of Citizen s United Management and strategy staff Staff Member Role Previous Experience Stephen Bannon Chief Executive Head of Breitbart News Kellyanne Conway Campaign Manager Founder and President, The Polling Company David Bossie Michael Glassner Ed Brookover Barry Bennett Deputy Campaign Manager Deputy Campaign Manager Senior Advisor, Delegate Selection Strategist President, Citizens United Executive, Defeat Crooked Hillary super PAC Advisor, Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin Iowa Strategist, 2000 George Bush Presidential Campaign Senior Advisor, 1996 Bob Dole Presidential Campaign Chair of Political Practice, Greener and Hook Consultant, National Republican Congressional Committee National Field Director, Republican National Committee Founder, Rob Portman Super PAC Founder, Liz Cheney Super PAC Senior Advisor, Make Us Great Again PAC (Rick Perry Super PAC) Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; Jabine Botsford, Who is Corey Lewandowski? His Rise and His Relationship With Donald Trump, The Keene Sentinel, April 3, 2016; CNN, 2015; Kevin Cirilli, Who s Who in Trump World, The Hill, August 14, 2015; Valentina Zarya, Donald Trump s Campaign Staff is 75% Men, Fortune, June 1, 2016; Maggie Haberman, Donald Trump Fires Corey Lewandowski, His Campaign Manager, New York Times, June 20, 2016; National Journal Research, 2016; Robert Costa, Trump Enlists Veteran Operative David Bossie as Deputy Campaign Manager, The Washington Post, September 1, September 2, 2016 Katharine Conlon and Owen Minott Jr. 84

85 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Hope Hicks leads Trump s communications team Communications staff Staff Member Role Previous Experience Hope Hicks Communications Director Public Relations for Ivanka Trump, Trump Organization Account Manager, Hiltzik Strategies Jason Miller Senior Communications Advisor Senior Communications Advisor, Ted Cruz 2016 Presidential Campaign Katrina Pierson Spokesperson Tea Party Activist Tea Party Candidate for House of Representatives, Texas District 32 Daniel Scavino Jr. Director of Social Media Director of Development, Joe Torre Safe at Home Foundation Assistant Clubhouse Manager, Trump National Golf Course Regional Manager, Coca Cola Justin McConney Director of New Media Head of New Media, Trump Organization Michael Abboud Communications Coordinator RNC Communications Aide Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; LinkedIn, 2016; National Journal Research, August 17, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 85

86 CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Roger Ailes to advise Trump following departure from Fox, sexual harassment charges Advisors Staff Member Role Previous Experience NEW Roger Ailes Advisor Chairman, Fox News Ken McKay John Mashburn Roger Stone Sam Clovis Sarah Huckabee Sanders Brian Jack Senior Advisor Policy Director Political Consultant Co-Chair and Policy Advisor Senior Advisor National Delegate Management Director Formally Chris Christie s campaign manager Previously worked on campaigns for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) Counsel or aide with Jesse Helms (R-NC), Trent Lott (R-MS), Rom Delay (R-TX) Previously lawyer for Womble Carlyle Sandridge and Rice Organizer, Brooks Brothers riot protest against 2000 Florida recount Founding Partner, Black, Manafort and Stone Director of Youth Outreach, Regan Presidential Campaign 1976 Host of Radio Show, Impact With Sam Clovis Professor of Economics, Morningside College Inspector General, US Space Command Vice President, Tsamoutales Strategies Campaign Manager, 2016 Mike Huckabee Presidential Campaign Previously ballot access and delegate selection for Ben Carson Worked on American Israel Public Affairs Committee Staff assistant at the Republican National Committee Sources: Ballotpedia, 2016; LinkedIn, August 17, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 86

87 Gov. Christie leads Trump presidential transition team CAMPAIGN STAFF PROFILES Trump presidential transition team Staff Member Transition Team Role Previous Experience Chris Christie Chairman Governor of New Jersey Bill Palatucci General Counsel Attorney RNC Member Rich Bagger Senior Member Chief of Staff, Governor Chris Christie William Hagerty Director of Appointments Director of Appointment, Mitt Romney 2012 Presidential Campaign Mike Rogers National Security Advisor (role not finalized) House Intelligence Committee Chairman Sources: Josh Rogin, Top Corker Aid Joins Trump Transition Team, The Washington Post, August 3, 2016; Zeke Miller, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Campaigns Invited to White House Transition Meetings, Time, July 29, 2016; Rebecca Savransky, Rogers to Play Senior Role on Trump Transition Teams: Report, The Hill. August 16, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 87

88 SUPPORT FOR GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES Republicans are supporting Trump as much as they supported Romney and McCain GOP voter support for nominee one month after nomination secured GOP Support for Republican Nominee GOP Support for Democratic Nominee Even though Trump has abandoned party orthodoxy on a range of issues, Republican voters have rallied around Trump since he clinched the nomination Consolidating the GOP vote will give Trump a floor of support and make it difficult for Clinton to win the general election in a blowout Clinton has yet to unify the Democratic party, but her supporters expect a bump in support after the Democratic National Convention Reagan Bush Dole Bush McCain Romney Trump Harry Enten, GOP Voters Are Rallying Behind Trump As If He Were Any Other Candidate, FiveThirtyEight, June 1, June 16, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 88

89 SCOTUS STRATEGIES Donald Trump s list of potential nominees meets expectations, largely white and conservative Donald Trump s Supreme Court shortlist None of Donald Trump s possible nominees are people of color. Steven M. Colloton (IA) 8 th Circuit of US Court of Appeals Dian S. Sykes (WI) 7 th Circuit of US Court Appeals Raymond W. Gruender (MO) 8 th Circuit of US Court of Appeals Thomas M. Hardiman (PA) 3 rd Circuit of US Court of Appeals Raymond M. Kethledge (MI) 6 th Circuit of US Court of Appeals Joan L. Larsen (MI) Michigan Supreme Court William H. Pryor Jr. (AL) 11 th Circuit of US Court of Appeals Thomas R. Lee (UT) Utah Supreme Court Allison H. Eid (CO) Colorado Supreme Court David R. Stras (MN) Minnesota Supreme Court Don R. Willett (TX) Texas Supreme Court Sources: Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump releases list of potential United States Supreme Court justices, Trump Campaign, May 18, 2016; Matt Flegenheimer, Donald Trump s docket: a look at his Supreme Court wish list, NY Times, May 18, September 7, 2016 Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox 89

90 Chapter 6 Issues and Events Impacting the Election

91 Supreme Court cases and presidential actions helped define the major issues for 2016 presidential election Timeline of events affecting the 2016 election EVENTS AFFECTING 2016 ELECTIONS June 2015 June 2015 June 2015 July 2015 Aug 2015 (King v. Burwell) Decision The Supreme Court ruled to uphold federal subsidies for all eligible Americans under the Affordable Care Act. This effectively upheld the ACA s constitutionality making its repeal a major rallying cry for Republican presidential candidates. For Democratic candidates, especially Hillary Clinton, preserving and championing the ACA took on added significance. (Obergefell v. Hodges) Decision The Supreme Court ruled the 14 th amendment required all states to grant and honor same-sex marriage licenses. The decision brought the issue to the fore within the Republican primary causing social issues to become a major criteria when vetting candidates. Congress Approved and Obama Signed Trade Promotion Authority for Trans-Pacific Partnership Congress granted Obama authority to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without Congressional amendment. Democratic candidates denounced TPP as undermining U.S. labor with Republicans split over the issue. Establishment candidates largely favored the deal while outsider candidates like Trump and Cruz considered it bad for the economy. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was Announced The JCPOA or the Iran Deal, was announced and Republicans quickly lambasted it. For Republicans, it provided a contrast on how they would be a stronger commander-in-chief than Democrats. For Democrats, the deal was seen as evidence of their prudence and measured leadership contrasted with the Republican s hot-headedness. Obama Announced Finalized Clean Power Plan President Obama announced the Clean Power Plan, which empowered the EPA to regulate carbon emissions. Democrat candidates largely supported the measure seeing it as a critical step to combating climate change. Republican candidates viewed the plan as imposing burdensome regulations upon states, which would aversely impact the economy. Source: InfoPlease, February 2016; BBC, Russia Joins War in Syria: Five Points, October 1, 2015; Allie Maloy, Obama Unveils Major Climate Change Proposal, CNN, August 3, February 19, 2016 Ben Booker 91

92 EVENTS AFFECTING 2016 ELECTIONS National security became one of the top issues towards the end of 2015 due to Syria and terrorism Timeline of Events Affecting the 2016 Election Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Russia Entered Syria and Began Air Campaign to Support Syrian Dictator Bashar al-assad Russian airplanes and ground troops entered Syria to support Syrian leader Bashar al-assad. Further questions about U.S. Middle Eastern strategy were discussed in the presidential debate, especially on the Republican side. Republicans used Russian presence as an example of continued U.S. weakness under Obama. Obama Announced U.S. Ground Troops in Syria A rift began to appear between Democratic candidates on national security with Hillary Clinton largely supportive of Obama s Syria strategy while Bernie Sanders wanted all U.S. troop withdrawn from Syria. A similar rift emerged in the Republican campaign with most Republicans calling for a more muscular strategy with an increased troop presence, while others called for the U.S. to embrace a less interventionist foreign policy in the Middle East. Paris Terrorist Attack ISIL operatives killed 130 people and caused widespread panic across France. National security became a top concern amongst voters, especially Republicans. Republican candidates called into question the vetting process for Syrians and Iraqis entering the U.S. causing a major discussion about whether the U.S. should be letting in Syrians or Iraqis at all. Democrats tried to differentiate themselves as the more welcoming party and painted Republicans as fear-mongering. San Bernardino Terrorist Attack Two gunmen, who were a couple, attacked a social services clinic killing 14 and injuring 22 people. One of the perpetrators, Tashfeen Malik, was a Pakistani immigrant and a permanent legal resident. Her immigrant status made fears over Middle Eastern immigrants more acutely felt and made terrorism the dominant topic in the national conversation. Source: InfoPlease, February 2016; BBC Russia Joins War in Syria: Five Points, October 1, 2015; Allie Maloy, Obama Unveils Major Climate Change Proposal, CNN, August 3, February 19, 2016 Ben Booker 92

93 Justice Antonin Scalia s unexpected death has put added significance on the 2016 presidential election Timeline of events affecting the 2016 election EVENTS AFFECTING 2016 ELECTIONS Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Feb 2016 U.S. and Iran Prisoner Exchange U.S. and Iran exchanged prisoners resulting in five U.S. prisoners being released. Four returned to the U.S. and one remained in Tehran. Democratic candidates pointed to the exchanges as proving that diplomacy could produce results without the need for military intimidation. Republican candidates pushed back against this sentiment pointing to an incident where Iran held U.S. sailors hostage, albeit temporarily. Some of Hillary Clinton s s Were Marked As Classified Some of Hillary Clinton s s from her time as Secretary of State were retroactively labeled as containing classified information. Republican candidates pointed to this as showing how reckless Clinton was and how she cannot be trusted to handle sensitive information. The Democratic candidates continued to consider the a smear campaign with Clinton arguing major Republican officials like Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice used a similar private server while handling retroactively classified material. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia Died On February 13 th, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died. A discussion began on whether Obama should appoint a new Supreme Court justice or whether it should wait until the next president. Consequently, the presidential election took on added significance as the winner was seen as the one who would appoint Scalia s successor and determine if the court would have a liberal or conservative majority. Source: InfoPlease, February 2016; BBC, Russia Joins War in Syria: Five Points, October 1, 2015; Allie Maloy, Obama Unveils Major Climate Change Proposal, CNN, August 3, February 19, 2016 Ben Booker 93

94 Public opinion on the issues as election approaches PUBLIC OPINION ON THE ISSUES Gay Marriage Cannabis Gun laws Obamacare Syrian refugees Taxes Source: Gallup, 2015; Justin Worland, Most Americans Say the Rich Aren t Taxed Enough, Time, February 22, 2015; Rebecca Shabad, Poll: Majority Opposes Accepting Syrian Refugees into US, CBS News, December 23, 2015; David Knowles and Ben Brody, Bloomberg Politics Poll: Majority of Americans Say Obamacare Should Get Time to Work, Bloomberg Politics, April 17, 2015; Bryan Beutler, Obamacare Is More Popular Than It Seems If You Discount These People's Opinions, The New Republic, April 20, February 18, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 94

95 HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE Clinton campaign staff has greater female representation than Trump campaign Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline Clinton s Staff Trump s Staff 7/15 of the highest paid employees are women 2/15 of the highest paid employees are women Sources: Matt Viser, Donald Trump s Campaign Pays Women Less Than Men, The Boston Globe, June 4, June 7, 2016 Owen Minott Jr. 95

96 SCOTUS STRATEGIES Next president could be responsible for as many as four Supreme Court nominations SCOTUS appointment timeline and Clinton s strategy Following Antonin Scalia s death, a still empty seat needs to be filled Merrick Garland is the name currently on the table for confirmation by the Senate, however Republicans have made it clear that they do not plan on confirming Garland before the election. Should Hillary Clinton win the election, there has been growing pressure for her to nominate a more liberalleaning judge. Clinton has not written off the possibility of re-nominating Garland, but doing so would likely anger progressives and Bernie Democrats that are becoming essential to a Clinton election win. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, at 83, is most likely to retire next While Democrats have no official strategy for filling the seat of liberal-leaning Justice Ginsburg, many believe that Clinton would be committed to finding a female replacement. Several names including Patricia Millet (DC Circuit Court) and Jane Kelly (8 th Circuit) have been floated as possible female, left-leaning judges that would be suitable for the Supreme Court. Breyer and/or Kennedy could retire before the 2020 election While neither has indicated an intent to retire, Justice Breyer and Justice Kennedy will both be in their 80s by the 2020 election. Should either of the men vacate their seat unexpectedly, many believe Clinton would consult President Obama s previous shortlist including standouts such as Paul Watford (9 th Circuit) or Sri Srinivasan (DC Circuit Court). Sources: Lydia Wheeler, Clinton s court shortlist emerges, The Hill, July 30, 2016; Ben Geman and Sam Baker, How Hillary Clinton would handle the Supreme Court, National Journal Daily, July 28, September 7, 2016 Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox 96

97 SCOTUS STRATEGIES What will happen to Merrick Garland? President Obama s Supreme Court nomination possible outcomes Background A month after the death of Antonin Scalia on February 13 th, President Obama nominated Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. Senate Republicans have refused to meet with Garland on the principle that Obama should not be allowed a high court choice in his final year. Confirm before end of year? Many Senate Republicans were surprised that President Obama nominated a more moderate judge who has some conservative appeal. Hillary Clinton would have to win the election for Senate Republicans to consider confirming Garland before the end of the year. Many speculate that Clinton would instead nominate a more liberal judge in Garland s place, leading some senators to believe that they should confirm Garland while he s available. Merrick Garland Supreme Court Appointee No confirmation for Garland? Hillary Clinton has not ruled out the possibility of re-nominating Garland if she wins; however, there is growing pressure from progressives for a more left-leaning nominee. Senate Republicans may face a much more contentious confirmation battle should they pass on Garland in the case of a Clinton election win. If Donald Trump were to win the presidency, the Senate would almost certainly let Garland s nomination expire as Trump would likely nominate a right-leaning judge. Sources: Lydia Wheeler, Clinton s court shortlist emerges, The Hill, July 30, 2016; Ben Geman and Sam Baker, How Hillary Clinton would handle the Supreme Court, National Journal Daily, July 28, September 7, 2016 Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox 97

98 Chapter 7 Trump and Clinton on the Issues

99 CLINTON VS. TRUMP ON GUN CONTROL Clinton supports gun control to prevent gun violence; Trump wants to protect the Second Amendment Comparison of Clinton s and Trump s gun violence plans Background Checks Hillary Clinton s Proposals Comprehensive background checks; Close Charleston loophole that allows gun sales to proceed if background check not completed within 3 days Donald Trump s Proposals Fix, but do not expand, background check system states should put criminal and mental health records into the system Mental Health Close loopholes that allow people with severe mental illnesses to purchase and possess guns Expand mental health treatment programs Federal Crimes Make straw-purchasing a federal crime Bring back Project Exile Felons committing violent crimes involving firearms are prosecuted federally and go to prison for 5 years with no parole or early release Gun bans Prohibit the sale of assault weapons No bans on any kind of guns Miscellaneous Increase funding for inspections of gun dealers; revoke licenses of dealers who knowingly break the rules Repeal gun industry s immunity protection Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act End unregulated internet gun sales and gun show loophole Prohibit all domestic abusers, including those in dating relationships, from possessing weapons Protect 2 nd amendment Concealed carry permit should be valid across state lines Allow military personnel to carry firearms on bases and at recruiting centers Sources: Donald J. Trump, Protecting our Second Amendment Rights Will Make America Great Again, DonaldJTrump.com; Hillary Clinton, Gun violence prevention, HillaryClinton.com. March 31, 2016 Christine Yan 99

100 Clinton and Trump have no common ground in gun control platforms CLINTON VS. TRUMP ON GUN CONTROL Comparison of Clinton and Trump s gun control proposals Proposal Clinton Trump Comprehensive background checks X Close Charleston loophole allowing gun sales to proceed if background check not completed within 3 days Repeal gun industry s immunity protection Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act Increase funding for inspections of gun dealers; revoke licenses of dealers who knowingly break the rules X X X Make straw-purchasing a federal crime X End unregulated internet gun sales and gun show loophole Prohibit all domestic abusers, including those in dating relationships, from possessing weapons X X Prohibit the sale of assault weapons X Source: John Wagner, Bernie Sanders says he is pulling together a plan to address gun violence, Washington Post, October 5, 2015; HillaryClinton.com; Jessica Taylor, Bernie Sanders Walks a Fine Line on Gun Control, NPR, June 24, 2015; Dan Merica, Where is Bernie Sanders Gun Control Plan? CNN, February 18, March 31, 2016 Christine Yan and Owen Minott 100

101 PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON HEALTHCARE Presidential candidates health care stances generally adhere to respective party lines Overview of candidates stances on major health care legislation Affordable Care Act Single-Payer Medicare Medicaid Abortion Hillary Clinton Keep Expand Expand Supports Donald Trump Replace Keep Keep Ban Sources: The Briefing, "Hillary Clinton's Plan for Lowering Out-of-Pocket Health Care Costs", HillaryClinton.com, September 23, 2015; Dylan Scott, "Explaining Hillary Clinton's Trip to the Health Policy Twilight Zone," National Journal, April 21, 2015; "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again," DonaldJTrump.com, May 19, 2016; "Affordable Health Care is a Basic Human Right", HillaryClinton.com, May 19, 2016; "Bernie Sanders on Healthcare," FeeltheBern.org, May 19, 2016; Rachel Witkin, "Where 2016 Candidates Stand on Mental Health Issues" NBC News, February 24, 2016; Julie Edgar, Health Care Reform: Health Insurance & Affordable Care Act, WebMD, May 20, 2016; "Annotated Transcript: The Aug. 6 GOP Debate", Washington Post, August 6, June 30, 2016 Emilia Varrone 101

102 Presidential candidates stances on health policy span political spectrum Details on 2016 presidential candidates platforms on health care PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON HEALTHCARE Health Care Program Clinton Trump Affordable Care Act (ACA) Preserve & Build Repeal & Replace Prescription Drug Prices Control drug prices & hold drug companies accountable. Lower barriers to trade to allow drug makers from overseas to sell in the U.S. Medicaid Expansion Support new incentives to encourage states to expand? Unclear, Trump proposes state block-grants for Medicaid Medicare Buy-In Supports people 50+ to be able to purchase Medicare coverage? Unknown, Trump promised to improve Medicare by making the country rich Public Option Supports public option, suggests state initiatives under ACA Does not support Mental Health Parity Wants mental health parity with physical health issues Supports current reform plan in Congress Provider Price Transparency Would expand disclosure requirements Require transparency from doctors and hospitals Sale of Health Insurance Across State Lines? Early 2015 Clinton expressed an open mind, not currently in her platform Allow health insurance to be sold across state lines Sources: The Briefing, "Hillary Clinton's Plan for Lowering Out-of-Pocket Health Care Costs", HillaryClinton.com, September 23, 2015; Dylan Scott, "Explaining Hillary Clinton's Trip to the Health Policy Twilight Zone," National Journal, April 21, 2015; "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again," DonaldJTrump.com, May 19, 2016; "Affordable Health Care is a Basic Human Right", HillaryClinton.com, May 19, 2016; "Bernie Sanders on Healthcare," FeeltheBern.org, May 19, 2016; Rachel Witkin, "Where 2016 Candidates Stand on Mental Health Issues" NBC News, February 24, 2016; Alan Rappeport and Margot Sanger-Katz, "Hillary Clinton Takes a Step to the Left on Health Care," New York Times, May 10, June 30, 2016 Emilia Varrone 102

103 Short on details: presidential candidates stances on mental health Details on 2016 presidential candidates platforms on mental health PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON MENTAL HEALTH Health Care Program Clinton Trump Mental Health Parity Wants mental health parity with physical health issues Supports current reform plan in Congress Substance Abuse Sees addiction as an illness, and focuses on prevention, treatment and recovery. No policy position. Stated that the planned border wall will reduce drug entry into the US Veteran s Mental Health Expand mental health services for veterans and their families to reduce veteran suicides Increase funding for PTSD, traumatic brain injury and suicide prevention services Developmental Disabilities, Autism Improve screening, awareness and research; require health insurance coverage for services; introduce an Autism Works Initiative No policy position on improving services for those with developmental disabilities or autism Community Health centers Invest in community health centers to improve primary and preventative care No policy position on community health centers Sources: HillaryClinton.com, August, 2016; DonaldJTrump.com, August, 2016; Dylan Scott, Donald Trump s Plan for Heroin Addiction: Build a Wall and Offer some Treatment, STAT, August 1, August 16, 2016 Emilia Varrone 103

104 Both Clinton and Trump support RFS and GMO s, but differ on most other agriculture issues Overview of candidates stances on agriculture PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS ON AGRICULTURE Agricultural Subsidies Invest in Rural America Support the Renewable Fuel Standard Support Biotechnology and GMO s Immigration and Farmworker Labor Promote Clean Energy Hillary Clinton Supports farm subsidies with a focus on helping smaller family farms Clinton has proposed simplifying regulations on community banks and expanding access to capital for rural businesses Some reforms of RFS are necessary, but supports overall strengthening of RFS and access to E15, E85, and biodiesel blends Did not support preemption of labeling laws, supports use of biotechnologies Clinton has been endorsed by the United Farm Workers Clinton s plan for rural America highlights clean energy and fully fund the Environmental Quality Incentives Program Donald Trump Does not support the wide use of farm subsidies, but has indicated support for ethanol/corn subsidies? Trump supports the Renewable Fuel Standard matching the blend levels set by Congress Trump has expressed his support for biotechnology in food products Trump s promise to build a wall and halt immigration could affect food supply by eliminating necessary farmworker labor Trump has said that fossil fuels are great and the U.S. should be burning more of them Sources: National Journal Research; DonaldJTrump.com; HillaryClinton.com; Helena Bottemiller Evich, Trump Woos the Heartland, Politico, May 27, 2016; Deena Shanker, A Donald Trump Presidency Could Lead to Food Shortages in the U.S., Quartz, March 30, 2016; Ballotpedia, August 5, 2016 Claire Carter 104

105 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Trump supports investing in fossil fuels, while Clinton wants greater environmental regulation and clean energy Overview of major candidates stances on energy and environment Support Hydraulic Fracking Approve the Keystone XL Pipeline Support the Renewable Fuel Standard Implement the Clean Power Plan Implement the Paris Climate Agreement Promote and Invest in Clean Energy Hillary Clinton Supports fracking, but in a limited fashion and would like to see it more regulated Clinton believes building the Keystone XL Pipeline would be a setback in fighting climate change Some reforms of RFS are necessary, but supports overall strengthening of RFS and access to E15, E85, and biodiesel blends Supports the CPP and would fend off Republican efforts to weaken regulations Supports the Agreement and is committed to reducing U.S. carbon emissions Clinton wants the U.S. to produce enough renewable energy to cover half of its energy needs by 2030 Donald Trump Trump strongly supports oil and gas exploration to increase U.S. energy supplies Trump supports renewing the Keystone XL Pipeline project to increase oil supply Trump supports the Renewable Fuel Standard matching the blend levels set by Congress Trump wants to rescind the CPP because he believes it has crippled the coal industry, which has only increased energy prices Strongly opposes the Agreement because he considers climate change a hoax and the Agreement too burdensome Trump is not opposed to clean energy investment, but he would rather invest in fossil fuels because it is cheaper Sources: National Journal Research; DonaldJTrump.com; HillaryClinton.com; Ballotpedia, August 24, 2016 Ben Booker 105

106 Trump s family care plan give working parents substantial tax breaks, but also increases the deficit significantly Key policy takeaways from Trump s speech TRUMP VS. CLINTON CHILDCARE PLAN Childcare tax deductions Individuals earning up to $250,000 and joint filing households making up to $500,000 will be able to deduct the average cost of child care for up to four children and elderly dependents from their taxes Households with a stay-at-home parent will also qualify for this deduction CNBC reported last month that the childcare tax break would cost $158 billion a year Childcare rebates For families not making enough money to pay federal income taxes, Trump proposed a $1,200 childcare rebate This came in response to the criticism Trump s childcare tax deduction plan faced last month for disproportionally placing the burden of childcare on low income families Paid maternity leave Trump promised to guarantee six weeks of paid maternity leave; currently, the U.S. is one of the only countries in the world that does not mandate paid leave of any kind for new parents He did not mention paternity leave Dependent care savings account This savings account would allow for tax deductible contributions and tax free appreciation year-to-year In addition, the government also would match half of the first $1,000 deposited each year The savings account plan would cost the government $25 billion a year and does not benefit families who cannot afford to contribute money to this account annually Analysis This proposal addresses some of the essential issues Democrats are focusing on this election cycle Trump has already overhauled his tax plan once before during the campaign as estimates placed the cost of his initial plan at $9 trillion over 10 years Trump s campaign said they would reduce unemployment insurance fraud to finance a portion of their plan The proposal also pledged to promote family and community-based solutions as well as to incentivize childcare at the workplace, but it did not go into detail Source: Fact sheet: Donald J. Trump s new child care plan, Donald J. Trump, September 13, 2016; Scott Detrow and Domenico Montanaro, Trump campaign sketches out family care plans; questions linger over funding, NPR, September 13, 2016; Noun Project, Nut Chanut, Parkjusuh, CreativeStak, Alex Tai. September 14, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 106

107 TRUMP VS. CLINTON CHILDCARE PLAN Clinton s childcare plan focuses primarily on early education and tax cuts Key policy takeaways from Clinton s proposal Cap childcare costs at 10 percent of income Using tax cuts or state block grants the government will subsidize childcare costs exceeding 10 percent of a family s income Universal pre-school Over the next 10 years, Clinton pledged to ensure preschool is available for every 4-year-old in the country and to double the government investment in Early Head Start programs Paid maternity and paternity leave Clinton promised 12 weeks of paid family leave for both parents guaranteeing at least twothirds of their salary Raising childcare workforce salaries Clinton s Respect and Increased Salaries for Early Childhood Educators (RAISE) initiative will fund and support states and local communities that increase the compensation of childcare providers and early educators Expand home visiting programs Clinton pledged to double the government investment in evidence-based home visiting programs that provide visits by social workers or nurses during and after pregnancy to improve maternal and child health Analysis Clinton first unveiled her childcare plan in May The campaign has not released funding specifics, but they have indicated that most programs will be funded by tax increases on the wealthy Childcare takes up an average of 30% of a minimum-wage worker s earnings in every state, so subsidizing any costs over 10% of income will be substantial Support student parents with scholarships and childcare Clinton has pledged to increase access to childcare on college campuses and provide financial support to parents in college Source: Early childhood education, Hillary Clinton, May, 2016; Leigh Ann Caldwell, Comparing Trump and Clinton s child care plans, NBC News, September 13, 2016; Danielle Paquette, The enormous ambition of Hillary Clinton s child-care plan, The Washington Post, May 12, 2016; Noun Project, Michael Thompson, Grego Cresnar, Rediffusion, Mani Amini. September 14, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 107

108 2016 CANDIDATE SCIENCE & TECH POSITIONS Presidential candidate stances on science & tech issues indicate different visions of future policy Comparison of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump s opinions on critical policy topics Issues Clinton Trump Encryption & the FBI Apple Dispute Privacy & Surveillance Broadband Regulation Cyber Warfare NASA Funding Investment in Infrastructure Does not want to force companies to provide backdoors; suggests creating a Manhattan-like project by tech companies and the government; took an equivocal position in FBI-Apple dispute Voted for the PATRIOT Act in 2001 and its reauthorization in 2006, but voted against extending the act s wiretap provision; expresses support for NSA reform; pledged to modernize the MLAT process Led a project expanding online access overseas as Secretary of State, is aiming for affordable universal Internet access in the US, and plans to fight the telecom industry; supports net neutrality Has challenged China with regards to hacking efforts, saying countries attempting to compromise US cybersecurity will pay the price Supported reversing 2008 NASA spending cuts, has reiterated her support and wants to grow its budget this election cycle Released a five-year $275 billion infrastructure proposal, which includes investing in transit and roads, creating smart cities with an infrastructure compatible with the Internet of Things, and using clean energy sources Supported a court order that would have required Apple to develop a backdoor; referred to Apple as disgraceful for resisting the court order to give encrypted data to the FBI, called for a boycott of Apple products Vocalized support for reauthorizing the PATRIOT Act and NSA collection of bulk cellphone metadata collection in 2015; called for database on incoming Syrians and surveillance of mosques Does not support net neutrality, calling it a top down power grab by Obama, fears it will lead to the censorship of conservative media Suggested closing the Internet in some way in order to combat ISIS recruitment tactics and has criticized the Obama Administration's response to Chinese cyberattacks Has expressed positive views on NASA, but wants to focus on domestic infrastructure improvements first Calls for increased spending on rebuilding US infrastructure, has promised to spend at least $1 trillion, plans on investing in high-speed railways, airports, roads, power grid, highways, and a 1000 mile wall on the US-Mexican border Sources: 2016 Candidate Report Card, Engine Research, 2016; Hillary Clinton s Infrastructure Plan, Hillary for America, 2016; On the Issues, 2016; Joan Solsman, Apple v. the FBI, the Wrap, February 19, 2016; Norman Anderson, Infrastructure in a Trump or Clinton Administration, The Hill, March 8, 2016; Clinton vs. Trump: Comparing the Candidates Positions on Technology and Innovation, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, September September 6, 2016 Yanni Chen 108

109 Chapter 8 Battleground State Strategies

110 Battleground state: Clinton approaches Pennsylvania with confidence while Trump is ambitious Presidential candidate strategy in Pennsylvania Pennsylvania From Clinton s Perspective Clinton and Kaine spent the first days after the Democratic Convention on a bus tour through Pennsylvania and Ohio promoting Clinton s plans to add jobs and encourage domestic manufacturing. Clinton then returned to PA, stopping in Scranton and Philadelphia with Vice President Biden. Their aim in this bus tour was to take on Trump where he is the strongest: among blue collar white males. Holding the DNC in Philadelphia likely created momentum for the Clinton campaign in the state. On why Republicans will have a hard time picking up Pennsylvania, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said, For every blue-collar Democrat we will lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two or three moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Philadelphia. The state has not gone Republican since Pennsylvania was not among Clinton s initial ad buys, indicating a degree of confidence in carrying the state. Pennsylvania From Trump s Perspective Pennsylvania has a large population of citizens with the Trump-voter profile: blue-collar white males. Despite the demographics, Pennsylvania is considered a reach for Trump right now because of his weakness in appealing to college-educated moderate Republicans Trump s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, maintains that Pennsylvania is wide open and notes if Trump can get those 20 electoral votes, there are many more ways of getting to 270. Trump trails Clinton by 10 points in the state and his unpopularity is contributing to the boost Democratic Senate challenger Katie McGinty has experienced in her own race. She leads by an average of 3 points. Pennsylvania s incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) faces significant pressure from McGinty to disavow Trump. In an op-ed column published in May, Toomey wrote, Trump was not my first, second or third choice. I object to much in his manner and his policies I find his campaign highly problematic. PENNSYLVANIA BATTLEGROUND Sources: Tom Fontaine, In Tight Senate Race, Toomey Teetering in Support of Trump, TribLive, August 7, 2016; Dan Balz, Philip Rucker, In Final 100 Days, Clinton and Trump to Chart Different Paths to White House, Washington Post, July 30, 2016; POLITICO s Battleground States Polling Average, August 9, 2016; Lisa Hagen, Trump Effect Spills Into Pennsylvania Senate Race, The Hill, August 21, August 22, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 110

111 Wisconsin may have lost its battleground appeal for Trump Presidential Candidate Strategy in Wisconsin Wisconsin From Clinton s Perspective Wisconsin has been going blue in presidential elections since 1984, however it has a large population of white, blue collar voters who fit the profile of a Trump voter. Clinton does have strong support in Milwaukee and Madison and a Trump victory would be difficult without them. Neither Clinton nor Trump has invested in Wisconsin advertising. For Trump that doesn t mean much because he has not spent much on ads in any state, but for Clinton it indicates she is confident in support from Wisconsin. She also has $98 million reserved for airtime nationally, so we may see some of that moved to Wisconsin in the future if need be. Tim Kaine spent August 5 th touring a Milwaukee microbrewery. Clinton is currently polling at an average of 43.8% to Trump s 35.4% in Wisconsin. Wisconsin From Trump s Perspective Trump is facing a tough fight for Wisconsin, with Milwaukee and Madison appearing to be Democrat strongholds. Trump s challenge is somewhat compounded by Trump s rift with the state s Republican leaders, Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Ron Johnson, and Speaker Paul Ryan, who Trump was reluctant to endorse before Ryan s primary. None of these Wisconsin Republicans attended Trump s August 5 th rally in WI. The state s talk radio hosts, who were influential in Trump s Wisconsin primary loss, have maintained their opposition to the candidate. Trump held a rally August 5 th in Green Bay, a key swing area, and Mike Pence spent time in Waukesha the preceding week. WISCONSIN BATTLEGROUND Sources: Adam Wollner, On Wisconsin? National Journal, August 5, 2016; POLITICO s Battleground States Polling Average, August 9, August 9, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 111

112 Battleground state: North Carolina is no longer the Republican stronghold it once was Presidential candidate strategy in North Carolina North Carolina from Clinton s perspective Clinton appears to have a slight edge in North Carolina, leading Trump by 0.7 points in the most recent RCP Average Though NC is a key state for Clinton to take from Trump, Democratic party leaders may pressure the candidate to spend time in other states to bolster Senate candidates who may help the party gain a majority Black voters, an electorate with whom Clinton has a strong advantage, have a bigger share of the total vote in NC than in any other battleground state with 23% Obama was the first Democrat in three decades to carry the state, but lost to Romney in NC in 2012 Clinton has 30 field offices in the state, while Trump has only recently opened three Clinton and Clinton supporters have booked $16 million in PA ads, while Trump has booked just $1 million in ads North Carolina from Trump s perspective Trump and Clinton have been neck and neck in September NC polling, though overall Clinton appears to have a slight edge and as of September 13 th, Trump trails Clinton by 0.7 points in the RCP Average State GOP operatives call NC a must-win state for Trump and worry that the candidate s under-developed ground game will fail to consolidate the Republican base in the state Without the base, Trump will have a difficult time overcoming his unfavorability with NC s large population of college-educated voters as well as Black and Latino voters Trump opened his first three field offices in the state on September 12 th in an effort to surpass Clinton considering he was able to keep the race very close with little to no ground game in the state Lara Trump, the candidate s daughter-in-law, and Omarosa Manigault, a former Celebrity Apprentice contestant, met with volunteers at the launch of these offices to energize supporters NORTH CAROLINA BATTLEGROUND Sources: Katie Guleck, Time running out on Trump in North Carolina, POLITICO, August 18, 2016; Gabby Morrongiello, Trump opens first field offices in N.C. while Clinton opens no.20, Washington Examinier, September 12, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, 25 battleground counties to watch, POLITICO, August 8, 2016; RealClearPolitics Poll Average, September 13, 2016; Niall Stanage; Will Trump or Clinton Win? The 11 states deciding the race, The Hill, September 7, September 13, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 112

113 Battleground state: Trump and Clinton play tug of war for the white working class vote in New Hampshire Presidential candidate strategy in New Hampshire NEW HAMPSHIRE BATTLEGROUND New Hampshire from Clinton s perspective Clinton has held a strong lead in New Hampshire since the race began and according to the most recent RealClearPolitics Average, she is up five points in the state, though a recent NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows a tighter race among likely NH voters Clinton runs a robust ground game in the state, evident in her 17 NH field offices, while Trump has only one field office in the state The NH electorate is about as white as Iowa s, but the social attitudes in the state lean more libertarian, which contributes to Clinton s stronger lead in NH than in Iowa Because Bernie Sanders is a favorite in NH (he won the NH primary in February), Clinton will likely campaign with him in the fall to unite the state s Democratic base Clinton has also planned to spend $8.7 million on TV advertising in NH New Hampshire from Trump s perspective Trump may be making a late comeback in NH, the state that gave him his first primary win in February Though he is down by five points according to the RCP average, his campaign gained momentum from an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll (released Sept. 11 th ) showing Trump behind Clinton by only one point in NH among likely voters and tied among registered voters Trump, as recently as Sept. 3 rd, began investing in data-driven ad buys on cable channels in the state In a move that raised some eyebrows in Connecticut, the Trump campaign ed CT supporters to canvass in NH and shift some of their resources to NH in an effort to rally support and increase momentum across New England Trump may be able to appeal to the state s largely white electorate with his tough stance on immigration and America first policy on trade Sources: Janet Hook, Contest expands to new battlegrounds, Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, 25 battleground counties to watch, POLITICO, August 8, 2016; RealClearPolitics Poll Average, September 13, 2016; Kate Kaye, Trump s TV turning point: data-driven ad buys are happening, AdAge, September 8, 2016; Niel Vigdor, Trump campaign steers Conn. voters to NH, CT Post, September 12, September 13, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 113

114 Battleground state: Ohio is one of the closest races in the country for Trump and Clinton Presidential candidate strategy in Ohio Ohio From Clinton s Perspective Clinton s strategy is focused on driving turnout in cities and appealing to moderates in the suburbs. The message to persuade Republicans to flip is on social issues and national security, Trump can t be trusted, and his rhetoric toward women and minorities including disabled people is disqualifying. The Clinton campaign and one of the top Super PACs behind her, Priorities USA, have run ads on this theme. Clinton s campaign is targeting the same Ohio demographics that drove Obama s success in the state. The campaign will aim to bring African Americans, women, Latinos, and organized labor into her support base. While labor leadership is behind Clinton, the campaign will have to defend against some in the labor community who are drawn to Trump. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland area) is a major bellwether for Ohio. According to party operatives, anywhere above 260,000 votes in the county for Democrats would guarantee the state for Clinton. Ohio From Trump s Perspective Ohio is one of Trump s most promising battleground states, in which he is neck and neck with Clinton at 41.8% to her 43.8%. Trump is doing better than Republicans have historically in Ohio s Democratic strongholds. Stuart Garson, chairman of the (Cleveland area) Cuyahoga County Democrats, says his focus will be defending against Trump s appeal to what historically might be referred to as Reagan Democrats. Trump does have a strained relationship with Ohio state party leadership, especially after his campaign chairman said Gov. Kasich embarrassed his state by skipping the RNC Convention and withholding his endorsement. Trump s main base in Ohio is in the eastern and southeastern counties, filled with blue-collar towns and many coal miners who are angry with Clinton for her pledge to put coal miners out of business. OHIO BATTLEGROUND Sources: Katie Glueck, How Ohio will be won, POLITICO, July 31, 2016; POLITICO s Battleground States Polling Average, August 15, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, 25 battleground counties to watch, POLITICO, August 8, September 9, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 114

115 Battleground state: Virginia may be out of reach for Donald Trump Presidential candidate strategy in Virginia Virginia from Clinton s perspective Virginia is one of Clinton s strongest battleground states, though it was a Republican stronghold until 2008 In RealClearPolitics average, Clinton leads in Virginia by 5 points and she has suspended advertising there with no plans to buy more advertising in the future Clinton seems to be indicating a high level of confidence about her lead in the state In 2012, 20% of Virginia voters were black. This demographic has shown itself to be very loyal to Clinton, especially in a matchup against Trump Virginia also had the highest percentage of college graduates in its voting population in 2012 among the 11 battleground states, which is a population that tends to favor Clinton over Trump. Clinton will likely look to running mate Tim Kaine, Virginia s former governor and senator, to sure up her lead in the state Virginia from Trump s perspective Trump does not appear to be putting much emphasis on Virginia and Republican operatives in the state suggest that it is leaning so heavily toward Clinton that it might be unwinnable for Trump Trump has not invested in advertising in the state thus far According to a Virginia GOP operative, the overall vote is going to be determined by Northern Virginia and the Tidewater area these are areas where Trump lost in the primary and where demographics include immigrants and college-educated voters Trump also has to contend with the advantage Clinton gains from Tim Kaine s wide appeal in the state and her close relationship to the state s current governor, Terry McAuliffe Tom Davis, a former VA congressman, says if Trump starts running ads and holding more events in the state, he would have an opportunity to even up the score VIRGINIA BATTLEGROUND Sources: Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Trump s shrinking swing state map, POLITICO, September 8, 2016; Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney, Daniel Strauss, 25 battleground counties to watch, POLITICO, August 8, 2016; RealClearPolitics Polling Averages, September 9, September 9, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 115

116 Battleground state: Trump slow to start in Florida while Clinton invests heavily in the state Presidential candidate strategy in Florida Florida From Clinton s Perspective Clinton and her allies have spent over $20 million so far in Florida according to NBC News. In an August 2 nd rally at Daytona State College, Tim Kaine stressed that it was his second trip to the state in 10 days saying, I think you can see that to the Clinton team, Florida is really, really important. The campaign is targeting the I-4 corridor of swing counties with middle-income families as well as younger families and an influx of Hispanic voters including many citizens who have left the economic difficulty in Puerto Rico. Clinton currently leads in Florida, polling at an average of 45.4% to Trump s 40.6%. According to the Clinton camp, her campaign has a few hundred staffers on the ground and many are focused on registration efforts. In the coming weeks the campaign will also send surrogates and entertainers to rally support in the state. Florida From Trump s Perspective Trump has pre-existing ties to Florida; the most significant being Trump National Golf Course in Doral which is his biggest source of income according to his most recent FEC filings. After weeks of very little activity in Florida, Trump met with the Republican National Committee in Orlando on August 12 th (87 days before the general election) to agree on a plan to increase efforts in Florida. Trump and the RNC will open 25 Florida field offices and enlist more than 200 paid staff by Labor Day. Without Florida, Trump would have a much more difficult path to 270 electoral votes. The candidate has not yet run any general-election ads, instead relying on rallies to energize supporters. Trump and campaign insiders explain that this delayed strategy in Florida is deliberate and meant to let Clinton run through the motions and run through her resources. The Trump campaign is planning to begin advertising in Florida very, very shortly; probably in the next week or so. FLORIDA BATTLEGROUND Sources: Jonathan Swan, Trump Campaign Plans Rapid Florida Expansion, The Hill, August 13, 2016; John Wagner, Ed O Keefe, Fast-Growing, Diverse Part of Florida Earns Special Attention from Clinton, Trump, The Washington Post, August 2, 2016; POLITICO s Battleground States Polling Average, August 15, August 15, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 116

117 Chapter 9 Debate Intel

118 Commission on presidential debates decides on debate sites for general election 2016 GENERAL ELECTION DEBATE SCHEDULE Presidential Debate Vice Presidential Debate September October First Presidential Debate: September 26, 2016 Moderated by Lester Holt, NBC Hofstra University Hempstead, NY Vice Presidential Debate: October 4, 2016 Moderated by Elaine Quijano, CBS Longwood University Farmville, Virginia Second Presidential Debate: October 9, 2016 Moderated by Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz, CNN Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis, Missouri Third Presidential Debate: October 19, 2016 Moderated by Chris Wallace, Fox News University of Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada Source: Commission on Presidential Debates, Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Sites and Dates for 2016 General Election Debates, September 23, October 20, 2016 Katharine Conlon, Christine Yan and Owen Minott 118

119 HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE PPP polls show Clinton with debate advantage Automated survey of who won Monday s debate Public Policy Polling Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline Clinton Trump Analysis PPP s automated surveys all show Clinton as having won Monday s debate Her smallest margin of victory is 17 percentage points in Florida, 52% to 35% Sources: Colin Diersing and Karyn Bruggeman, PPP polls show Clinton with debate advantage, National Journal, September 30, September 16, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 119

120 HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE Debate breaks viewership records Average viewership totals across main networks Nielsen, viewership in millions Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline Total television viewership: Estimated combined television and online viewership: 84 million 93 million The 84 million accounts for people who watched via traditional TV channels at home. People who watched at parties, bars, restaurants, and offices were not included. Source: Karyn Bruggeman, Debate breaks viewership records, September 28, 2016; Joe Concha, Final numbers show record-setting viewership for debate, The Hill, September 28, September 30, 2016 Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox

121 DEBATE VIEWERSHIP Debate viewership fell sharply from Trump and Clinton s first showdown Presidential debate viewership, 2012 v 2016 Nielsen October 10, 2016 First debate Second debate Analysis 20% fewer people tuned in to watch the second presidential debate than the first In 2012, there was less of a drop in viewership between debates, but fewer viewers watched overall Sources: Karyn Bruggeman, Clinton draws large crowd at Ohio State, National Journal, October 11, October 13, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 5

122 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE Race, security and trade are key topics during first debate Key takeaways from the first presidential debate Takeaway Overview Possible effect on voters 1. Both candidates ran into issues regarding trust and truthfulness 2. Clinton carefully navigated discussion on race relations while Trump tripped over birther issue 3. Trump found his footing when attacking Clinton on trade 4. Both candidates faltered when discussing national security Trump was slammed for his refusal to release his tax returns and trouble managing his business while Clinton suffered from continued talk about deleted s. Trump also garnered significant pushback from moderator Lester Holt who fact checked the candidate several times throughout the debate. When Holt transitioned to the topic of race, Clinton discussed racial inequality and implicit bias while Trump focused on law and order and improving community relations. Trump later got trapped in a discussion of his stance on the Obama birther issue and added little information on the topic. Trump unloaded on Clinton s experience with trade deals, citing NAFTA and her initial support of TPP as moves that have hurt Americans more than helped. Clinton drew attention to the success of trade in the 90s as evidence of a path forward. Clinton showed her foreign policy prowess by highlighting her work with NATO and her plan to defeat ISIS while Trump criticized Democrats past mistakes that resulted in ISIS s formation. Trump also got stuck fighting against both Clinton and Holt on his past comments regarding his support for the war in Iraq. Constant talk about trust hurts both candidates and likely increases the chances that voters on both sides will either sit out the election or vote for third party candidates Clinton likely appealed to millennials, who have been instrumental in race relations through groups like Black Lives Matter. Trump likely satisfied his base but said little that would sway undecided voters. Trump will likely benefit from these attacks as his words may resonate with blue-collar voters in swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump s attacks bring focus to Clinton s past mistakes but his positivity toward Putin and lack of constructive proposals make voters reactions extremely difficult to predict. Sources: Aaron Blame and Team Fix, The first Trump-Clinton presidential debate transcript, annotated, The Washington Post, September 26, 2016; Kyle Cheney, The 10 most memorable moments of the presidential debate, Politico, September 26, 2016; Jonathan Easley and Amie Parnes, Five takeaways from wild debate, The Hill, September 27, September 27, 2016 Justin C. Brown

123 VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE Kaine enters debate ready to attack Key takeaways from the VP debate 1. Takeaway Overview 1. Pence backtracked from several of Trump s positions 2. Kaine was constantly on the attack Pence insinuated that Trump would not immediately deport all undocumented immigrants. Pence interrupted Kaine s dark description of Trump s roaming deportation force, insisting it was nonsense, but not specifying which undocumented immigrants would be allowed to stay. Kaine also accused Pence and Trump of having an affinity for Putin. Pence responded by calling Putin a small, bullying leader and insisting that Russian provocations need to be met with American strength. Kaine threw Trump s own words at Pence all night, attempting to force him to respond to Trump s comments about undocumented immigrants, a federal judge of Mexican descent, Sen. John McCain s war record and woman. Except for the few times when Pence diverged from Trump s previous statements, he was able to avoid Kaine s heated attacks. Analysis Historically, VP debates do not affect the outcome of the election Despite the CNN/ORC poll showing Pence s performance was six percentage points better than Kaine s, it is unlikely that this will have a significant effect on Trump s poll numbers Social media is buzzing with speculation that the debate was a preview for Pence s 2020 run 3. Quijano often cut debate short in order to get through her selected topics 4. Pence s temperament won the debate Although Quijano cut some exchanges short to switch topics, she managed to get Pence and Kaine to answer questions about a variety of issues, facilitating a more targeted policy discussion than the presidential debate. The candidates discussed immigration, foreign policy, criminal justice reform and abortion rights. Kaine s continual interruptions made the conversation harder to follow. Paine, a former radio host, was well prepared to handle Kaine s attacks without taking the bait. Sources: National Journal Research, October 6, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 1

124 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE The first general election debate was one of the most anticipated in recent history Key information about the upcoming presidential debates NY Date: Monday, September 26, 2016 Location: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY Debate Structure Time Segment minute time segments. Each on a separate topic. Debate Moderators 3 First Debate Monday, Sept. 26 Hempstead, NY Lester Holt, NBC News Second Debate Sunday, Oct. 9 St. Louis, MO Martha Raddatz, ABC News Anderson Cooper, CNN Third Debate Wednesday, Oct. 19 Las Vegas, NV Chris Wallace, Fox News Moderator: Opens with a question Candidate A: 2 minutes to respond Candidate B: 2 minutes to respond Candidates will use the remaining time to respond to each other. Time will be balanced between candidates by the moderator. Sources: Rebecca Savransky, Clinton Camp Talking to Trump Co-Author for Debate Prep, The Hill, August 30, 2016; Joe Concha, Networks Brace for Decision on Trump-Clinton Debate Refs, The Hill, August 16, 2016; Patrick Healy, Matt Flegenheimer, Hillary Clinton Piles up Research in Bid to Needle Donald Trump at First Debate, NY Times, August 29, 2016; Commission on Presidential Debates, September 2, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 1

125 Donald Trump approaches debate preparation with a confident, laissez-faire attitude A breakdown of Donald Trump s debate preparation PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE Debate Strengths Unpredictable Confident/experienced in front of a camera Debate Weaknesses Tendency toward unclear language Likely will not have a mastery of policy details Lack of preparation Strategy Specifics In a recent interview, Trump said, I believe you can prep too much for those things [debates]. It can be dangerous. You can sound scripted or phony like you re trying to be someone you re not. Trump has spent the past two Sundays with his debate team, but has been reluctant to engage in mock debates. These meetings instead were used as time for Trump to ask questions about debate topics, Clinton s debate skills, and possible moderators. Roger Ailes, recently ousted Fox News chairman, has been a key advisor in debate prep meetings. Trump cites his success in the 11 primary debates he participated in and is confident saying, I know how to handle Hillary. Sources: Rebecca Savransky, Clinton Camp Talking to Trump Co-Author for Debate Prep, The Hill, August 30, 2016; Joe Concha, Networks Brace for Decision on Trump-Clinton Debate Refs, The Hill, August 16, 2016; Patrick Healy, Matt Flegenheimer, Hillary Clinton Piles up Research in Bid to Needle Donald Trump at First Debate, NY Times, August 29, 2016; Commission on Presidential Debates, September 2, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 2

126 Hillary Clinton s careful debate strategy seeks to bait Trump into making his own blunders A breakdown of Hillary Clinton s debate preparation PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE Debate Strengths Experienced with political debate Deep knowledge and familiarity with policy details Thorough debate preparation Debate Weaknesses Responding to personal attacks, past scandals Clarity of message surrounding private server and Clinton Foundation donations Potential to appear condescending Strategy Specifics Clinton has been focusing on understanding Trump s psyche. She has employed psychology experts and spoken with Trump s Art of the Deal ghostwriter to create a personality profile for her opponent. Clinton does not see a debate victory in overwhelming Trump with policy details. Instead she is looking for methods to bait her opponent into making blunders. Clinton wants to avoid a debate that characterizes Trump as the truth-telling political outsider and characterizes her as a product of the establishment with questionable ethics. The Clinton camp believes Trump is most insecure about his intelligence, his net worth, and his reputation as a successful businessman. Clinton is developing ways to target those areas in the debate. However, Clinton also has to defend against appearing condescending or like a know-it-all. Clinton is also preparing for Trump to attack her personal history, particularly her marriage. The Clinton campaign has not yet chosen who will play Trump in the debate preparations, as many do not want to say the below-the-belt things Trump may bring up. Sources: Rebecca Savransky, Clinton Camp Talking to Trump Co-Author for Debate Prep, The Hill, August 30, 2016; Joe Concha, Networks Brace for Decision on Trump-Clinton Debate Refs, The Hill, August 16, 2016; Patrick Healy, Matt Flegenheimer, Hillary Clinton Piles up Research in Bid to Needle Donald Trump at First Debate, NY Times, August 29, 2016; Commission on Presidential Debates, September 2, 2016 Madelaine Pisani 3

127 Trump interrupted Clinton 51 times, Holt interrupted her 70 times Amount of times interrupted during debate: Clinton vs. Trump DEBATE INTERRUPTIONS Clinton interrupted by Holt Clinton interrupted by Trump Trump interruptions by Holt Trump interruptions by Clinton Analysis Clinton was interrupted significantly more by Holt throughout the debate than Trump was; however, Trump raised his voice and interrupted Clinton more often Source: Sarah Frostenson and Emily Crockett, Trump interrupted Clinton 51 times at the debate, Vox, September 27, September 27, 2016 Libbie Wilcox

128 SEPTEMBER 26 DEBATE SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY Clinton draws more new followers, but Trump is more discussed on Twitter during first debate New Twitter followers September 26 th presidential debate Twitter mentions September 26 th presidential debate The most retweeted tweet during the debate was something Trump wrote in 2012 about global warming Most Tweeted moments: 1.Trump says he has good temperament (and Clinton s response) 2.Trump comments on stop and frisk 3.Trump and Clinton exchange over plan to defeat ISIS Most Tweeted topics: 1.The economy 2.Foreign affairs 3.Energy and environment 4.Terrorism 5.Guns Source: Tim Chester, These topics dominated Twitter, Facebook and Google during the debate, Mashable, September 27, 2016; Twitter.com/gov. September 27, 2016 Owen Minott Jr.

129 SEPTEMBER 26 DEBATE SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY Clinton more searched on Google, Trump dominates Facebook discussion in first debate Candidate Google searches September 26 th presidential debate Google searches for registrarse para votar ( register to vote, in Spanish) hit an all-time high during the debate, reaching over 100,000 searches and become the third trending search in the US Clinton was more searched on Google than Trump in all 50 states Much of the discussion about both candidates on Facebook was negative Candidate Facebook mentions September 26 th presidential debate Top searched debate topics on Google: 1.Voter registration 2.Police 3.ISIS 4.Race issues 5.Immigration 6.Economy 7.Abortion 8.Climate change 9.Affordable Care Act 10.National debt Source: Tim Chester, These topics dominated Twitter, Facebook and Google during the debate, Mashable, September 27, 2016; Google searches for registrarse para votar hit all-time high during debate, The Washington Post, September 27, January 29, 2016 Owen Minott Jr

130 HOTLINE PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE Trump exceeds expectations, but Clinton won second debate Debate instant poll: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC, October 10 Based on headlines from National Journal s Hotline Clinton Trump Analysis Clinton may be the debate favorite; however, 58% of viewers polled already supported her The debate was widely believed to be an especially low in what has been a divisive campaign without precedent Sources: Colin Diersing and Karyn Bruggeman, PPP polls show Clinton with debate advantage, National Journal, September 30, October 14, 2016 Libbie Wilcox 130

131 GENERAL ELECTION POLLING Clinton leads Trump in most polls, Gary Johnson still hasn t met debate threshold Polls used by the Commission on Presidential Debates Poll: ABCNews/WaPo CBS/NYT CNN/ORC Fox News NBC/WSJ Date of Last Poll: 9/5-9/8 9/9-9/13 9/1-9/4 9/11-9/14 7/31-8/3 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Source: Huffpost Pollster, 2016 General Election: Trump v. Clinton v. Johnson, September 12, September 16, 2016 Justin C. Brown A candidate needs to average at least 15% among the five major polls in order to be eligible for the nationally televised debates. The last third-party candidate to be featured in a presidential debate was Ross Perot in 1992.

132 6 of the top 10 rated debates occurred within the last three election years. Top 10 presidential debates ranked by average household audience TOP 10 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE RATINGS Year Date Democrat Republican Independent Households (in millions) /3/12 Obama Romney /28/80 Carter Reagan /16/12 Obama Romney /07/08 Obama McCain /15/92 Clinton Bush Perot /30/04 Kerry Bush /15/92 Clinton Bush Perot /22/12 Obama Romney /15/08 Obama McCain /21/84 Mondale Reagan 39.1 Sources: Nielsen, From Your House to the White House: The Top Presidential Debates, August 15, 2016.; Noun Project, Edward Boatman, Pham Thi Dieu Linh, Yi Chen, Alex Tai, Alex WaZa. August 16, 2016 Alexander Perry