RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or

FOR RELEASE;: TUESDAY OCTOBER 28, 1980 RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or THE STATE UNIVERSITY JAN ICE BALLOU OF NEW JERSEY THE EAGLETON NSTITUTE OF POLITICS WOOD LAWNaNEILSON CAMPUS.NEW BRUNSWCK.NEW JERSEY 08901.201/828.2210 RELEASE: 42 1 REAGAN HOLDS NARROW LEAD GOING INTO TONIGHT S DEBATE Ronald Reagan takes a narrow lead over Jimmy Carter into tonight s Presidential debate, while support for independent candidate John Anderson has declined dramatically in recent weeks, according to the latest Eagleton survey. The Rutgers based poll interviewed a random sample of 907 New Jerseyans between October 20 and 23. Among the 587 persons most likely to vote in next week s election Reagan leads Carter by 40 to 36 percent, with Anderson receiving 10 percent and 14 percent undecided. Reagan held a similar lead of 5 points among likely voters inter viewed by Eagleton during the last half of September, leading Carter by 36 to 31 per cent with Anderson at.21 percent. Among the 766 registered voters the candidates run evenly, with Carter getting 37 percent, Reagan 36 percent, and Anderson 10 percent. Registered voters interviewed in September gave Reagan a 1 point lead. Cliff Zukin, Director of the Poll, said the 2 percentage point difference between September and October fell into the survey s margin of error and was not significant. Zukin noted, The difference between the registered and likely voter figures indicates that voter turnout will be a key to the candidate s fortunes in New Jersey. A large turnout can help Carter close the gap on Reagan. The Poll indicates that many New Jerseyans have been making up their minds about who to support in recent weeks. While the margin between Reagan and Carter has remained the same, support for both candidates is up from September, while half of John Anderson s supporters have left him. Two in three registered voters now say they are firm in their support of one of the candidates, up from 56 percent in September. However, with more Attention Radio Stations: Audio is available after 7:00 P.M., 10/27/80, from (201) 545 6193 (Rutgers Feature Phone).

EP42 1 Page 2 20 percent saying they might change their mind before election day and an additional 14 percent undecided, tonight s debate looms as a. crittcal event in the 1980 campaign, as does the possible release of the American hostages held in Iran. New Jersey voters appear to be slightly more concerned with domestic than foreign issues. The survey, conducted before the government s latest economic report putting inflation at 12.7%, found 87 percent saying they are very concerned with the shape of the nation s economy. About 4 in 5 also say they are very concerned about the nation s energy problems. About 7 in 10 are deeply concerned over the possibility of war in the next few years; the same number are concerned over government spending and taxes. Fewer 59 percent say they are very concerned about keeping up with the Soviet Union in military strength. Carter supporters tend to be more concerned about the possibility of war and energy problems, while Reagan supporters express more concern with the economy, government spending and taxes, and with the issue of military strength. The Rutgers survey also finds none of the candidates to be commanding enthusiastiec support among New Jersey s registered voters. Opinions about Governor Reagan are mixed with 44 percent saying their general impression of him is favorable, while 45 percent say they have an unfavorable view of him. able ones by a margin of 53 to 40 percent. Unfavorable views of Carter outnumber favor Representative Anderson remains not well known to about one third, with 31 percent offering no opinion of him. Another third 34 percent say their general view of Anderson is favorable; the remaining third offer an unfavorable opinion of the independent candidate. Reagan is better regarded among members of his own party than Carter is among Democrats. Reagan is also viewed more favorably by independents. Favorable impressions of Reagan outnumbered unfavorable ones among Republicans by 81 to 14 percent. Democrats view Carter more favorably than unfavorably by a smaller margin of 64 to 27 percent. Independents are evenly divided in their impressions of Reagan 46 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable and are largely negative toward Carter with 66 percent evaluatinl him negatively and 29 percent positively. more

Reagan has made some gains among blue collar workers in the state, but these have been offset by losses among self employed Garden State workers. Among blue collar workers Reagan is up 7 points from September to October while Carter is up I point and Anderson down 4 points during that same ( period. The bottom dropped out of Anderson s support among self employed persons going from 22 to 3 percent. Carter appears to have been the principal beneficiary of this, moving from 19 to 36 percent among this group. Reagan dropped from 49 to 43 percent. more EP42 1 Page 3 Zukin commented, The closeness of the race, despite Reagan s more favorable image indicates there are a number of New Jerseyans who prefer him but have reser vations over the risk of war with Reagan as President a central theme of the Carter campaign. However, Reagan may have an easier task in tonight s debate he needs to reassure people who would like to support him, while Carter needs to convert people who generally have an unfavorable opinion of him. If Reagan is unable to reduce voters fears we might see late voters returning to the incumbent. There is a feeling among the general public that while Carter has not been a good President, he has at least kept us out of war. While not fully reflected in the percentages supporting Reagan and Carter, the Poll figures show voters making up their minds most recently favoring the incumbent. Among those saying they had decided who to vote for in the last two weeks, Carter led Reagan by 48 to 32 percent. Those who had decided in the last month or two favored by 45 to 41 percent over Reagan. Reagan led among those who had decided earlier than this by a margin of 48 to 42 percent. Among those having decided on a candidate, 18 percent say they made up their minds in the last week or two, 33 percent in the last month or two and 49 percent decided more than two months ago. The Eagleton survey also revealed a number of trends in support for the candidates from September to October: Carter has picked up some support among members of his own party, now receiving 67 percent of Democratic votes compared to 60 percent in September. Reagan was supported by about three auarters of Republicans in both surveys. The drop in John Anderson s support among independents has been split evenly between Carter and Reagan ndependents now divide 36 for Reagan, 26 for Carter, 16 percent for Anderson. Tn September 34 percent of independents favored Anderson, 30 percent Reagan and 19 percent Carter. ( Carter

EP42 1 Page 4 Eighty two percent of Reagan voters now say they are firm in their support up from 71 percent in September. Three quarters of Carter supporters now say they are firm up less from the 70 percent who said they were firm in September. The data presented in this release come from interviews conducted by telephone with a random sample of 907 New Jerseyans 18 years and older. Of this sample, 766 said they were registered to vote in the state. Only the responses of registered voters are reported in this release. In theory one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results based on the sample differ by no more than 4 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained had all registered voters in the state been inter viewed. The error for smaller sub groups is larger, depending on the number of re spondents in the sub group. The theoretical margin of error does not take into account additional error resulting from various practical difficulties involved in taking any survey of public opinion. 30-- Copyright, The Eagleton Institute, 1980 C

26 UNION MEMBER IN HOUSEHOLD Yes 40 31 12 15 3 101% (285) No 34 38 9 16 2 99% (453) REGION North 39 36 8 14 3 100% (399) Central 36 35 12 17 0 100% (148) South 33 36 11 17 3 100% (195) THE STATE UNIVERSITY RUTGERS OF NEW JERSEY THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS WOOD LAWN.NE LSON CAMPUS.NEW SRUNSWICK.NEW JERSEY 08901.201/828-2210 BACKGROUND MEMO- RELEASE 42-1, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28. 1980 The questions and figures referred to in this release follow. The numbers in parenthesis are the weighted number of respondents answering each question. The figures presented in this release are based on those saying they are registered to vote in New Jersey except where otherwise noted. If the election for President was held today who would you vote for: Jimmy Carter, the Democrat; Ronald Reagan, the Republican; or John Anderson, running as an Independent? Undecided! Will Carter Reagan Anderson Other Not Vote Total j LIKELY VOTERS October, 19801 36 40 10 14 0 100% (587) September, 1980 31 36 21 11 1 100% (654) REGISTERED VOTERS October, 1q80 37 36 10 15 3 101% (766) September, 1980 32 33 22 11 1 99% (967) May, 1980-31 24 16 3 100% (834) 67 12 6 14 2 101% (263) Independents 26 36 16 17 4 99% (303) Republicans 9 76 5 9 1 100% (16]) EDUCATION Less than U.S. 46 31 4 16 2 99% (193) High School Grad. 36 34 11 16 3 100% (280) More than U.S. 30 40 13 14 2 99% (267) IDEOLOGY Liberal 54 15 17 12 2 100% (151) Moderate 38 35 1]. 15 2 101% (358) Conservative 23 58 4 12 3 100% (181) OCCUPATION Blue Collar 45 31 14 9 2 101% (171) White Collar 30 38 13 17 2 100% (300) Self Employed 36 43 3 17 1 100% ( 80) Retired 42 36 5 15 2 100% (132) RACE White 32 38 11 16 3 100% (658) - Non White 73 14 5 7 1 100% ( 81) C Democrats

3 2 IS SUE CONCERN 4 EP42 1 2 Undecided! Will Carter Reagan Anderson Other Not Vote Total Economy 35 39 10 16 100% (628) War 41 32 10 17 100% (520) - Might 4Responses to the following question: When did you make up your mind about who you would vote for in the last few days, in the last couple of weeks, in the last month or two, or before this? Spending/Taxes 34 41 9 16 100% (512) Energy 39 36 10 17 102% (569) Military Pairity 35 44 7 14 100% (429) TIME OF VOTE DECISION Last Week or Two 48 32 19 100% (109) --Last Month or Two 45 41 13 1 100% (195) Earlier 42 48 8 2 100% (29.1) Would you say you are voting more for (respondent s choice of Carter/Reagan/Anderson), or more against the others? Both for Don t For Against & Against Know Total (n) Carter Supporters 61 29 6 4 100% (271) Reagan Supporters 51 42 6 1 100% (265) Anderson Supporters 51 43 5 1 100% C 73) Are you very firm about your choice, or do you think you might change your mind before election day? C. Firm Change Undecided Total (n) TOTAL REGISTERED 67 20 14 101% (724) Carter Supporters 75 25 100% (271) Reagan Supporters 82 18 100% (265) Anderson Supporters 66 35 101% C 73) This group of 587 (60 percent of the total sample) are those most likely to vote in the election. Likely voters were determined by responses to questions concerning interest, perceived importance of the election out come, degree of caring about who wins, registration status, reported voting intention and questions about past voting behavior. 9 People saying they would not vote were not asked these questions. 3lncludes saying they were very concerned about the issue. Full question wording given elsewhere.

C EP42 1 Numbers of respondents are. as eollows.: Total Registere4 (721); Carter Supporters T m going to read you a quick list of issues and would like you to tell me how concerned you are about each. For each one simply say if you are very, somewhat or not very concerned. VERY SOMEWHAT NOT VERY DON T KNOW TOTAL THE SHAPE OF THE ECONOMY Total Registered* 87 11 2 0 100% Carter Supporters 82 14 3 0 99% Reagan Supporters 93 6 1 0 100% Anderson Supporters 84 16 0 0 100% THE POSSIBILITY OF WAR IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS Total Registered 72 20 8 0 100% Carter Supporters 78 15 7 0 100% Reagan Supporters 63 27 10 1 101% Anderson Supporters 72 23 6 0 101% REDUCING GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAXES Total Registered 71 25 3 1. 100% Carter Supporters 65 30 4 1 100% Reagan Supporters 78 19 2 1 100% Anderson Supporters 60 35 5 0 100% THE NATION?S ENERGY PROflLS Carter Supporters 81 14 5 0 100% ( Total Registered 79 18 3 0 100% Reagan Supporters 76 22 1 0 99% Anderson Supporters 74 24 2 0 100% KEEPING UP WITH THE SOVIET UNION IN MILITARY STRENGTH Total Registered 59 27 12 1 99% Carter Supporters 55 28 15 2 100% Reagan Supporters 71 20 9 0 100% Anderson Supporters 41 44 14 2 101% (271); Reagan Supporters (26:5); Anderson Supporters (73). Registered voters saying they would not vote have been omitted from this tables

EP42 1 4 In general, is your overailimpression of (candidate s name) favorable or unfavorable, or dont you really have an opinion about him? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that very (aorable/unfavorable) or only somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)? FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NO OPINION JOHN ANDERSON Total Registered* 10 24 18 18 31 101% Carter Supporters 7 20 18 24 31 100% Reagan Supporters 2 27 24 15 32 100% Anderson Supporters 50 36 4 0 9 99% Democrats 8 18 16 24 34 100% Independents 14 28 17 12 29 100% Republicans 4 29 23 18 25 99% JIMMY CARTER RONALD REAGAN Reagan Supporters (265); Anderson Supporters (73); Democrats (265); Independents (303); Republicans (161). VERY SOMEWHAT SOMEWHAT VERY DON T KNOW TOTAL Total Registered 15 25 25 28 8 101% Carter Supporters 37 45 10 3 6 101% Reagan Supporters 2 10 33 52 4 101% Anderson Supporters 1 9 39 49 1 99% Democrats 31 33 17 10 9 100% Independents 7 22 29 37 6 101% Republicans 4 18 32 41 5 100% Total Registered 17 27 22 23 10 99% Carter Supporters 0 7 36 48 9 100% Reagan Supporters 43 46 5 1 5 100% Anderson Supporters 1 22 37 31 9 100% Democrats 7 14 28 40 12 101% Independents 14 32 26 19 10 101% Republicans 41 40 8 6 5 100% * Numbers of respondents are as follows: Total Registered (745) Carter Supporters (27l)

Anderson Supporters EP4 2 i 5 The figures reported below are the breakdowns for the voting question reported in the background memo for Release 41 i, October 1, 1980 (September). They are represented below to facilitate over time comparisons. All figures refer to registered voters. Will Undecided Not Carter Reagan Anderson Other Vote Total (n) Democrats 60 14 17 8 1 100% (327) Independents 19 30 34 16 1 100% (410) Republicans 8 75 11 6 0 100% (216) EDUCATION Less than H.S. 42 28 15 14 3. 100% (137) High School Gra4.31. 37 19 12 1 100% (321) More than HS. 26 33 30 9 1 99% (507) IDEOLOGY ITEeai 47 17 28 6 1 99% (187) Moderate 30 32 23 14 1 100% (493) Conservative 24 51 17 8 0 100% (226) OCCUPATION 31ue Collar 44 24 18 12 2 100% (213) White Collar 30 33 27 9 0 99% (439) Self Employed 19 49 22 9 1 100% (131) Retired 31 33 21 16 0 101% (130) RACE White 26 37 24 13 1 101% (857) Non white 75 6 11 5 2 99% ( 99) choice of Carter/ Would you say you are voting more for (respondent s Reagan/Anderson), or more against the others? Both for Don t For ginst & Against Know Total j Carter Supporters 58 41 1 0 100% (287) Reagan Supporters 52 40 5 2 99% (325) Anderson Supporters 33 60 4 2 99% (236) Are you very firm about your choice, or do you think you might change I, your mind before election day. Firi Might Change Undecided!1. TOTAL REGISTERED 56 Carter Supporters 70 7]. 48 31 30 29 52 13 100% (967) 100% (28/) 100% (325) 100% (236) Reagan Supporters