Using new data sources student migration and future plans Sarah Crofts and Oliver Dormon
Student Migration The student migration issue Data Sources: Analysis Exit Checks International Passenger Survey (IPS) Survey of Graduating International Students (SoGIS)
Long-term non-eu international migration flows (thousands) The Student Migration Issue (non-eu) 250 200 inflow for formal study (non-eu) inflow for formal study (non-eu) (confidence interval bounds) outflow for previous study (non-eu) Measures to improve compliance in Tier 4 route from 2010 onwards 150 outflow for previous study (non-eu) (confidence interval bounds) the 'gap' between inflow for study and outflow of previous students 100 50 0 Year Source: International Passenger Survey, Office for National Statistics
Data Sources: Exit Checks Coverage: UK Inbound/outbound for non-eea except in Common Travel Area Coverage is better for air routes than rail or maritime 1 Reference Period: 8 April 2015 to 7 April 2017 Use: Examine activity of non-eu students after their visas expired, through Departure rate of non-eu students Extensions of visas (further study / work / other reasons) Cohort linking to identify future activity 1 Exit Checks Report 24 August 2017
Data Sources: IPS Coverage: UK Sample based survey (700,000-800,000 interviews of these 4,000 are identified as long-term migrants). All main entry and exit points including airports, sea ports and the channel tunnel Reference Period: April 2015 to March 2016 Use: Compare outflows of non-eu students to Exit Checks departures: Intentions of those departing the UK, for Non-EU nationals who have been resident in the UK for 12 months or more for formal study
Data Sources: Survey of Graduating International Students Coverage: 51 Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) 3500+ final year international students Target population All UK HEIs and all international graduating students (UG/PG, PhD etc.) Reference Period: Students expecting to finish courses in 2016/17 academic year Use: Examine the intentions of non-eu students after their study, through: Their intentions post-study, How sure they are of those intentions Behaviour during study e.g. Travel for Christmas, Easter and Summer holidays
Exit Checks Outcomes for non-eu students with a visa expiry date between 8 April 2015 and 7 April 2016 51% 2% 10% 26% 4% 7%
Why are the IPS emigration numbers lower? To be identified as an emigrating student they need to say: Exit Checks are based on actual behaviour not intentions: Likely to overstate intentions to return to the UK compared with actual behaviour More may say they will return to the UK than actually do May say they have been in the UK for shorter time than they actually have May state a different reason for previously immigrating to the UK
IPS outflows of previous non-eu students (April 2015 to March 2016) Persons Estimate 95% Confidence Interval Emigrated (for more than 12 months) 43,800 +/- 6,700 Emigrated but unsure how long 2,200 +/- 1,400 Departed the UK intending to return within 3 to 12 14,200 +/- 3,200 months Departed UK but unsure how long would be away for 5,300 +/- 2,100 (possibly 3 to 6 months) Departed but not identified as previous student immigrant 8,000 +/- 2,500 Intended to stay for 12 months or more for study but 2,800 +/- 2,300 departed within 12 months after arrival Total 76,300 +/- 8,500 Source: International Passenger Survey, Office for National Statistics
Certainty of plans of non-eu graduating students to stay in the UK after study Very certain Certain Uncertain Not certain at all Stay 12 months or more 6-12 months 3-6 months Less than 3 months Leave Immediately 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 % Source: Survey of Graduating International Students, Office for National Statistics and Centre for Population Change
Frequency of travel outside the UK during study 60.0 0 holiday periods 1 holiday period 2 holiday periods 3 holiday periods 50.0 40.0 % 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 EU non-eu Source: Survey of Graduating International Students, Office for National Statistics and Centre for Population Change
Intentions after study After finishing your current course of study, what are you planning to do? How likely are you to return within 12 months to live, work or study in the UK? 100% I don't know yet 100% 90% Travel in the UK + outside the UK 90% 80% Travel outside the UK 80% 70% Travel in the UK 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Take up a job offer I already have outside the UK Take up a job offer I already have in the UK Look for a job outside the UK 60% 50% 40% 30% Unsure Very unlikely Unlikely Likely Very Likely 20% Look for a job in the UK 20% 10% 0% EU non-eu Further study outside the UK Further study in UK 10% 0% EU non-eu Source: Survey of Graduating International Students, Office for National Statistics and Centre for Population Change
Future Plans In February we published a paper detailing our plans to improve the evidence on international migration in the UK using admin data International migrants are likely to interact with a number of different administrative systems Key policy areas to improve evidence on: International Students Migrant Labour Market Economic Impact Impact on Public Services Quality of Long-Term International Migration Figures
Migration Statistics Framework Who are migrants? 14
Movements of Migrants Where do migrants go after entering the country? Using Flag 4 on Patient Register (PR) as a migrant identifier Link longitudinally to track frequency and patterns of movements over time PR Year x Year x + 1 Year x + 2 Year x + 3 Address 1 Address 2 Address 3 Address 4 Address 1 Address 1 Address 1 Address 1 Address 1 Address 2 Address 2 Address 3
International Students How many EU students depart the UK after their studies? HESA 1 Semaphore How many students go onto further study after finishing their initial studies in the UK? HESA HESA How many former students have remained in the UK to work? HESA HMRC 1 Higher Education Statistics Agency
Migrant Labour Market Provide a much richer evidence base for occupations, hours worked, industries and earnings. Including circular migrants that are difficult to identify on existing sources. HMRC MWS 1 1 Migrant Worker Scan
Economic Impact How do different groups of migrants impact the economy? Local Areas Students EU15 Non-EU How long have migrants been living in the UK? Do they contribute more or less economically the longer they live here? HMRC BIDS 1 MWS 2 1 Benefit and Income Data Source 2 Migrant Worker Scan
Impact on Public Services How do international migrants use the health service in local areas? How do they contribute to the health sector in terms of labour supply? RTI 3 PR 1 PDS 2 IDBR 4 MWS 5 Impacts of international migration on the education sector. RTI SC 6 LEO 7 IDBR MWS 1 Patient Register, 2 Personal Demographic Service, 3 Real Time Information, 4 Inter-Departmental Business Register 5 Migrant Worker Scan, 6 School Census, 7 Longitudinal Education Outcomes
Quality of Long-Term International Migration Figures How well is the IPS measuring emigration of non-eu nationals on work or family visas? Exit Checks Can other sources provide evidence of when EU nationals are likely to have emigrated? HMRC Semaphore
Will administrative sources replace the IPS? This is very unlikely for three main reasons: 1. The IPS will include people who may not appear on administrative systems for some time. 2. Administrative systems will not provide a perfect measure of international migration. 3. The timeliness of the IPS will provide leading indicators of migration as 12 months will need to pass from the first to last record on administrative systems before they would be considered a long-term migrant. In 2019, we will make a decision on whether these administrative sources can improve the accuracy of the IPS based migration figures, by extending current methods to carry out adjustments to the IPS intentions-based information.
Any questions? migrationanalysis@ons.gov.uk