Retention of newcomers in New Brunswick A quantitative analysis using provincial administrative data

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1 Retention of newcomers in New Brunswick A quantitative analysis using provincial administrative data

2 Presentation Overview Purpose of study Context of immigration Challenges Data source and sample Descriptive results Regression results Further research May

3 Purpose of Study Compare retention rates of newcomers (Immigrants, Refugees and Interprovincial migrants) in New Brunswick. Assess the adequacy of the Provincial Medicare Registry for this type of analysis. Estimate the relative importance of various determinants of migration. (age, gender, source region) November

4 Role of Immigration in Canada Traditionally focused on economic growth Addressing population decline or stagnation New immigrants are younger and have higher fertility rates. Selective immigration highly skilled workers Immigration is the primary source of population in Canada since 1999 November

5 Annual number of immigrants to Canada November

6 New Brunswick Context Stagnant population growth Declining working age population GNB has invested significant resources in an effort to address demographic challenges. New Brunswick has received 1700 Syrian refugees between Nov, 2015 and March, November

7 Challenges for migration modelling Lack of timely and accessible data The Provincial government does not have direct access to personal information on who lands in NB and who stays in NB. IMDB (landing records linked to tax files) are available on a restricted basis through Statcan and with a substantial time lag. Only tax filers are captured Provincial settlement agencies disclose data (e.g. icare) to IRCC, not to GNB Landing records/imdb cannot currently be linked to other sources of provincial administrative data such as health records November

8 Alternative Data Sources Various surveys LSIC, IMDB, Census, other Statscan databases IRCC data sets available on open data portal Provincial administrative data November

9 Provincial Medicare Registry Advantages Coverage includes almost all NB permanent residents and citizens Retrospective and longitudinal (registry information back to 1971) Timely Medicare registry data can be obtained with as little as a 3 month time lag Contains age, sex, postal code of residence, household composition, citizenship status Linkable to other provincial administrative data November

10 Provincial Medicare Registry Disadvantages No direct identifier of immigrant status or visa category must be imputed Only the province or country of last residence is recorded Residence in NB must be imputed based on active Medicare registration Medicare cards renewed only every 3 years (5 from 2016) Migration to another province is accurate but migration out of Canada is not observed Limited personal information available in the registry November

11 Sample All NB residents with active Medicare registry at any point in time between 1971 and mid-2015 with a focus on recent arrivals. Entry to NB is observed based on the first date of registration in NB Medicare (>3 months). Exit from NB is observed based on date of termination in NB registry. Multiple entry/exit can be linked by individual. Date of death in NB is observed New immigrants imputed based on non-nb born, non-citizen, and arriving in NB from outside Canada: date of arrival, country of last residence Interprovincial migrants to NB imputed based on non-nb born, citizen, arriving in NB from another province/territory November

12 Data Source Comparison November

13 Place of last Residence Sample characteristics Gender Average Age at arrival Average Year of Arrival Observations USA Men Women EU/UK Men Women Mideast/Africa Men Women Asia Men Women UN Men Women Other Men Women Rest of Canada Men Women November

14 Approach - Duration Analysis Kaplan Meier A non-parametric estimate of the survivor function. The survivor function represents the probability that an individual survives from the time of origin to some future time. It accommodates censored observations and is useful for comparing groups of survival times. November

15 Rate of Migration from NB (Age 19-29) 12% 10% Rate of Migration Out of NB 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Year NB Non-NB Over Sea November

16 Rate of Migration from NB (Age 30-59) 7% 6% 5% Rate of Migration Out of NB 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Year NB Non-NB Over Sea November

17 Rate of Migration from NB by Age and Source Country 10% 9% 8% Rate of Migration Out of NB 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% plus Age Category NB Non-NB Asia EU / UK Mideast / Africa UN USA Other November

18 Proportion staying in NB by years in NB Years Non-NB Asia EU / UK Mideast / Africa UN USA Other November

19 Summary of results Outmigration rates for immigrants to NB are broadly comparable to outmigration rates for non-nb Canadians, but with variation by age and region of last residence. NB born residents have much lower outmigration rates. Outmigration is highest among young adults for all groups. Highest outmigration rates are exhibited by individuals from the Middle East and Africa as well as Asia; lowest are for UN and USA individuals Outmigration rates are cyclical but have been trending down for immigrants and non-nb residents The majority of attrition occurs in the first five years of arrival November

20 Approach - Duration Analysis Cox Proportional Hazard Model - Allows the relationship between the survival experience and explanatory variables to be explored. The model consists of two components a linear component (defined by the explanatory variables) and a baseline hazard function (all variates = 0 or reference category). The hazard rate is the probability of an event occurring conditional on the probability the individual has survived until that time. Result are expressed as the relative hazard or hazard ration if < 1 then risk is lower if > 1 than risk is higher. Parameter estimates are the logarithm of the hazard ratio. November

21 Variable Definitions Region individuals previous country of residence if listed. Interprovincial refers to individuals who listed a previous province of residence. Language English (ref), French, Unspecified Gender Male (ref), Female Arrival Decade 1990s (ref) Birth Decade 1940s (ref), only 18 and older included November

22 Parameter Parameter Estimate Standard Error Pr > ChiSq Hazard Ratio Rest of Canada UN < Asia < Region EU/UK < Mideast/Africa < Other USA < Language French < Unspecified < Gender Female

23 Parameter Parameter Estimate Standard Error Pr > ChiSq Hazard Ratio 1970s Arrival Decade 1980s < s < < s < s < Birth Decade 1960s < s < s < s <

24 Summary results Survival analysis confirms: variation by source region recent arrivals are less likely to leave NB those indicating no language preference are much more likely to leave younger arrivals are more likely to leave Results using provincial Medicare data are similar to results using tax records November

25 Further Research Incorporate Medicare registry data Indirectly identify Syrian refugee and other arrivals based on country of last residence and time of arrival. Add health data to examine health service use in first years after arrival Data sharing agreement with IRCC to obtain linkable provincial landing records data at NB-IRDT November

26 Additional Considerations Consequences of migration the role of migration, and other factors in regional social and economic outcomes. Individual characteristics that explain source region differences Combine with qualitative methods (interviews etc.) Consider controls for income and amenity differences November

27 Acknowledgements SSHRC-IRCC Population Growth Division, GNB Pathways to Prosperity (PI: Victoria Esses) NBHRF/MSSU Ted McDonald, Zikuan Liu, and Jonathan Boudreau November

28 References Akbari, A. H., & Sun, C. (2006). Immigrant attraction and retention: What can work and what is being done in atlantic canada. Our Diverse Cities, 2, Aydemir, A., & Robinson, C. (2008). Global labour markets, return, and onward migration. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d'économique, 41(4), Canadian Megatrends, Oct 2014 (StatsCan) Krahn, H., Derwing, T. M., & Abu-Laban, B. (2003). The retention of newcomers in second and third tier cities in canada Prairie Centre of Excellence for Research on Immigration and Integration Edmonton, AB. Lee, A. (2014). Essays on the challenges to labor market entry for Iraqi refugees and immigrants in the united states. Milan, (2014) (StatsCan) /Modeling%20Migration.pdf November