Australian Bishops Conference Pastoral Research Office Mass attendance in Australia: A critical moment A report based on the National Count of Attendance, the National Church Life Survey and the Australian Census. Robert Dixon, Stephen Reid and Marilyn Chee December 2013
Table of contents Mass attendance in Australia 1 Age and sex of Mass attenders 2 Birthplaces of Mass attenders 3 Mass attendance rates by age 3 Change in Mass attendance over time 4 Attendances by diocese 6 Australian summary 8 Conclusion 8 Report produced December 2013 by the Pastoral Research Office of the Australian Bishops Conference Copyright Australian Bishops Conference 2013 Pastoral Research Office contact details: ACBC Pastoral Research Office Australian University Locked Bag 4115 Fitzroy VIC 3065 Phone: 03 9953 3457 E-mail: office@pro.catholic.org.au Web: www.pro.catholic.org.au
Mass attendance in Australia Mass attendances for the whole of Australia are collected once every five years in a project known as the National Count of Attendance. The first National Count was in 2001, the most recent in 2011. Many dioceses also conduct annual counts. The National Attendance Count reveals that, in 2011, the number of people at Mass in Australia on a typical weekend was about 662,000, or 12.2 per cent of the population as determined by the 2011 Australian Census. According to the 2011 National Church Life Survey (NCLS), about 85 per cent of those who attend Mass on any one weekend are there every weekend, down from a stable figure of around 87 per cent in previous surveys. Another 8 per cent in 2011 reported that they attended two or three times a month, with the remainder attending about once a month or less often, or even attending Mass for the first time. NCLS results also show that 97.4 per cent of the people at Mass in parishes on weekends are s, and that a further 2.2 per cent belong to other Christian denominations. Table 1 shows selected demographic characteristics for Mass attenders in 2006 and 2011, together with corresponding characteristics for the 2011 population. All of the characteristics shown in the table are for persons aged 15 and over. Table 1. Demographic characteristics: Mass attenders 2006 & 2011, and population 2011 Demographic Mass attenders population characteristic 2006 2011 2011 Median age (years) 58.2 59.3 44.8 Aged 15-24 (%) 7.6 6.9 13.4 Aged 60-74 (%) 30.5 32.1 13.1 Aged 80 or over (%) 7.4 8.5 3.7 Female (%) 60.6 60.7 52.9 With university degree (%) 27.9 33.8 17.6 Born in Australia (%) 63.9 58.8 70.1 Born in Non-English 28.8 33.6 17.9 Speaking Country (%) Never married (%) 16.4 16.6 33.9 In first marriage / remarried 64.0 62.8 after being widowed (%) 49.6 Remarried after divorce (%) 3.3 1.3 Widowed (%) 10.0 9.8 5.7 Separated / divorced (%) 5.0 5.5 10.8 Total typical weekend attendance (all ages) 708,618 662,376 -- Source of data: National Count of Attendance 2006 and 2011, National Church Life Survey 2006 and 2011, Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 Census of Population and Housing. All figures except total typical weekend attendance refer to persons aged 15 years and over. National Count of Attendance The National Count involves an attempt to count attendances at all Masses (and also at Sunday Assemblies in the Absence of a Priest) across Australia during the same period. It includes attendances from Masses celebrated in all parishes, migrant Mass centres, hospitals and nursing homes, prisons, religious houses, university and other chaplaincies, boarding schools, and so on. Each national count is conducted over four Sundays during the month of May, ensuring that attendances at monthly Masses, quite common in rural areas and in non-parish settings, are included. The count provides us with information such as average weekly attendance figures, attendance rates, change over time, and attendances at Masses celebrated in languages other than English. National Church Life Survey Held in the same years as the National Count, the multi-denominational National Church Life Survey (NCLS), is conducted in a national random sample of parishes, and provides a great deal of information about Mass attenders, including their frequency of attendance, their demographic characteristics and their beliefs and practices. In 2011, a total of 47,426 completed questionnaires were received from the 217 parishes in the national sample. Because these parishes were part of a carefully constructed statistical sample, we can be confident that their results are an accurate representation of all parishes in Australia. Another 155 parishes took part in the survey for their own benefit, but as they were not part of the representative sample, their figures are not included in published results. NCLS began in 1991 as an initiative of Anglicare (NSW) and the Uniting Church Board of Mission (NSW), and the survey has been held every five years since then. In 1996, parishes participated in a parallel project known as the Church Life Survey. The Australian Bishops Conference became the third sponsor in the NCLS partnership in 2000, and in 2010 Australian University became the fourth sponsor. 1
Age and sex of Mass attenders The median age of Mass attenders rose slightly between 2006 and 2011, and is much higher than the median age of s in general. Almost a third of Mass attenders (32.1 per cent) are aged between 60 and 74 years, and attenders on the whole are ageing. Figure 1 shows that, in 2011, Mass attenders aged 15 to 59 accounted for a lower proportion of attenders than they did in 1996, while attenders aged 60 and over accounted for a higher proportion of all attenders. Among Mass attenders, there are about three women for every two men; this ratio has remained unchanged over four successive Church Life Surveys. The age-sex profile in Figure 2 clearly shows the preponderance of women and the lack of young adults of both sexes. Figure 1: Age profile of Mass attenders, 1996 and 2011 Percentage of attenders 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Age 1996 2011 Source of data: Church Life Survey 1996 and National Church Life Survey 2011 Figure 2: Age-sex profile of Mass attenders, 2011 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Number of Mass attenders Male Female Source of data: National Church Life Survey 2011 2
Birthplaces of Mass attenders In 2011, about one-third of Mass attenders had been born in non-english speaking countries. In particular, respondents born in India, Sri Lanka or the Philippines accounted for much larger proportions of attenders compared to their proportions in the population as a whole. The principal countries of origin are shown in Table 2, alongside comparable figures for the population as a whole. Table 2. Country of birth of Mass attenders and population, 2011 Country of birth Mass attenders (%) population (%) Australia 58.8 74.7 New Zealand 1.0 1.3 Pacific Islands 0.9 0.4 Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland) 3.5 2.5 Ireland (including Northern Ireland) 1.7 1.0 Italy 3.1 3.1 Malta 1.7 0.7 Northern or Western Europe 1.9 1.2 Eastern Europe 0.9 2.2 Middle East / North Africa 0.8 1.3 South Africa 0.9 0.4 Mauritius 1.1 0.3 North America 0.6 0.4 Central or South America 0.8 1.2 China (including Hong Kong) 0.5 0.4 Korea 0.2 0.3 Vietnam 1.6 0.7 Philippines 6.9 2.5 India / Sri Lanka 7.5 1.3 Other Asia 3.9 1.0 Other 1.7 2.9 Total 100 100 Source of data: National Church Life Survey 2011 and Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 Census of Population and Housing. Mass attendance rates by age As Figure 3 illustrates, attendance rates vary considerably by age. Among young adults aged 20-34, only about five or six per cent attend Mass on a typical Sunday. The highest attendance rates are found among those in their 70s, where attendance is typically a little over 30 per cent. The green areas of the graph represent non-attending s. Many of these are associated with schools, either as parents or students. Others are employed in organisations such as schools, hospitals, universities, or social service organisations. Still others have little or no regular association with the Church, but may occasionally attend Mass at Christmas, Easter or for family occasions. And there are some for whom their identity is limited to ticking the box on 3
the Australian census form. Nevertheless, as we will show in a later publication, identity makes a difference. Surveys show that people who continue to identify as s but who do not attend Mass have quite different beliefs compared to people who used to be but who no longer identify as such. Figure 3: Mass attendance rates by age, 2011 Age groups (Years) 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 0-14 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Per cent of all s Mass attenders Non-attenders Derived from data from the 2011 National Church Life Survey, the 2011 National Count of Attendance and Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 Census of Population and Housing. Change in Mass attendance over time Mass attendances have been in a more or less constant state of decline since the 1950s. 1 Although the first National Account of Attendance was not conducted until 2001, a quite reliable national figure calculated by aggregating diocesan counts exists for 1996. Between 1996 and 2011, a fifteen-year period, typical weekly attendance in Australia fell from approximately 864,000 to 662,376, a net average fall of more than 13,000 people per year. Since 1996, the percentage of Mass attenders born in non-english speaking countries has risen from about 18 per cent to almost 34 per cent, resulting in an increase of attenders born in non-english speaking countries of about 69,000. Despite this increase, overall Mass attendances declined by about 23 per cent. This happened because the number of Australian-born attenders fell by around one-third! Two major factors have contributed to this decline. Firstly, people in particular age cohorts have 1 See Robert Dixon and Ruth Powell, Vatican II: a data-based analysis of its impact on Australian life, in Neil Ormerod et al. (eds). Vatican II: Reception and Implementation in the Australian Church (Mulgrave, Garratt, 2012), p.302. 4
stopped going to Mass; it is estimated, for example, that up to 26,000 Baby Boomers stopped going to Mass between 1996 and 2011. Secondly, young adult attenders are not being replaced as they age. In 1996, about 136,000 s aged 15 to 34 attended Mass on a typical weekend, but by 2011 the number of Mass attenders aged 15 to 34 had dropped to about 80,000. Figure 4 shows how attendance rates of people born in non-english speaking countries have remained relatively stable since 1996, while those for people born in Australia have declined from 17 per cent to 10 per cent and for those born in other speaking countries have declined from 26 per cent to 16 per cent. The attendance rates in Figure 4 are approximate, due mainly to the fact that we do not have birthplace or age data for the 46,000 or so people who attend Mass in migrant Mass centres or parishes belonging to Eastern Churches. Figure 4. Approximate Mass attendance rates by birthplace group, 1996 2011 30 25 26 23 25 22 23 23 Per cent of birthplace group 20 15 10 17 13 20 12 16 10 5 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year Australian-born Born in ESC Born in NESC Derived from Church Life Survey 1996 and National Church Life Survey 2001, 2006 & 2011. National Counts of Attendance 2001. Mass count estimates 1996. 2006 & 2011. Australian Censuses 1996-2011. ESC: English speaking countries. NESC: Non-English speaking countries. Figure 4 offers one demonstration of how much the Church in Australia owes to our immigrants, particularly those from non-english speaking countries. But it cannot be assumed that the situation will remain the same; for one thing, the religious composition of immigrants might change at any time, resulting in fewer immigrants. Furthermore, although we do not have enough data to be certain, indications are that the Mass attendance behaviour of second generation Australians, that is, the children of immigrants, is more like that of third and later generation Australians than it is like that of parents. In other words, the beneficial effects on Mass attendance of immigrants from non-english speaking countries tends to last only one generation. 5
Attendances by diocese Table 3 on the following page shows detailed attendance results for every diocese in Australia. We have already seen that total attendances fell by over 46,000 between 2006 and 2011, so it is no surprise that attendances fell in all 28 territorial dioceses except Perth (which experienced a rise of 2,167) Bunbury (441), Darwin (173) and Geraldton (99). In the same period, however, all these dioceses experienced strong growth in their populations. Attendances also rose in the Maronite Diocese (a rise of 2,312) and the Ukrainian Eparchy (303). Attendance rates in the 28 territorial dioceses varied from a high of 16.1 per cent in the Archdiocese of Sydney to 6.7 per cent in the Diocese of Cairns. Fourteen dioceses recorded attendance rates of ten per cent or above and the other 14 recorded rates below ten per cent. In contrast, only two dioceses had attendance rates below ten per cent in 2006. Since attendance rate is calculated from the number of attenders and the population, rates can fall both because of a decrease in attendance and a rise in the population. Attendance rates are strongly influenced by the demographic composition of the population in each diocese. Statistical analysis shows that more than half of the variation between dioceses can be explained by just five demographic characteristics, all of which are shown in Table 3. 1. The number of s living in the diocese. 2. The percentage of s in the total population of the diocese. 3. The percentage of s living at the same address as at the time of the previous (2006) Census. 4. The percentage of the adult population with a university degree. 5. The percentage of diocesan population born in non-english speaking countries. The Archdiocese of Sydney, for example, the diocese with the highest attendance rate, has a large population (611,431) making up 27.5 per cent of the total population. It has the highest percentage of any diocese of s born in non-english speaking countries (29.8 per cent), and the second highest percentage, after Broken Bay Diocese, of adult s with a university degree (23.1 per cent). Its population is relatively stable, residentially speaking, with 58.9 per cent living at the same address for both the 2006 and the 2011 Censuses. On the other hand, the Archdiocese of Hobart, with an attendance rate of 7.0 per cent, has a relatively small population (88,842) that accounts for only 17.9 per cent of the total population. While it has a residential stability similar to that of the Archdiocese of Sydney (60.0 per cent), it has a very low percentage of s from non-english speaking countries (7.1 per cent) and of university-educated s (12.4 per cent). Why do these five factors have such a strong influence on attendance? We know that high percentages of Mass attenders have university degrees and were born in non-english speaking countries. These people also tend to live in the major cities, which is one reason why the size of the population in a diocese has an impact on attendance rates; another is the ease of finding a Mass at a convenient time and place in the cities relative to rural areas. Residential stability is a factor because when people live in the one location for an extended period they are more likely to put down roots in their local community, and that includes becoming involved in their parish. The reason why the percentage of s in the total population is related to attendance rates is perhaps the most difficult to explain; it may be that a higher percentage of s in the population leads to greater visibility, a stronger sense of belonging to a community, and the availability of more resources. 6
Table 3. Attendances and attendance rates by diocese Diocese 2011 Average weekly attendance 2006 Average weekly attendance Change 2006-2011 2006 Population 2011 Population 2011 Total Population 2011 Per cent 2011 Attendance Rate 2011 Per cent same address 3 2011 Per cent with degree 4 2011 Per cent born in NESC 5 Adelaide 31,984 34,085-2,101 278,017 290,094 1,431,571 20.3 11.0 62.4 16.1 20.2 Armidale 4,389 5,184-795 44,284 44,238 178,303 24.8 9.9 56.8 10.7 2.9 Ballarat 11,896 14,499-2,603 98,985 102,018 407,375 25.0 11.7 59.7 11.8 6.0 Bathurst 7,094 8,131-1,037 66,394 67,877 221,227 30.7 10.5 56.7 10.8 3.8 Brisbane 65,952 70,923-4,971 645,765 716,368 3,099,963 23.1 9.2 50.1 18.7 12.6 Broken Bay 25,532 29,502-3,970 213,285 223,240 887,195 25.2 11.4 58.1 24.0 15.5 Broome 724 830-106 8,308 9,779 36,266 27.0 7.4 50.2 11.7 4.8 Bunbury 5,246 4,805 441 53,640 63,112 327,609 19.3 8.3 52.1 10.9 10.5 Cairns 4,196 5,005-809 57,157 62,247 259,344 24.0 6.7 52.1 11.9 12.5 Canberra & Goulburn 17,327 20,814-3,488 159,670 162,813 604,062 27.0 10.6 57.3 20.7 12.0 Darwin 4,313 4,140 173 40,423 45,067 208,212 21.6 9.6 47.4 16.1 15.9 Geraldton 2,248 2,150 99 23,004 29,310 126,531 23.2 7.7 40.8 10.8 9.6 Hobart 6,208 7,175-967 87,782 88,842 495,353 17.9 7.0 60.0 12.4 7.1 Lismore 10,103 12,072-1,969 108,168 111,450 479,769 23.2 9.1 57.0 11.2 5.3 Maitland-Newcastle 12,774 15,642-2,868 153,857 159,151 666,265 23.9 8.0 58.4 12.2 6.3 Melbourne 148,759 155,513-6,755 1,062,789 1,112,182 4,098,614 27.1 13.4 61.5 20.1 24.6 Parramatta 50,613 51,684-1,071 319,228 331,970 1,050,318 31.6 15.2 62.8 16.6 25.5 Perth 56,616 54,449 2,167 379,012 426,609 1,747,806 24.4 13.3 54.6 19.4 21.8 Port Pirie 2,861 3,760-899 27,176 28,056 166,707 16.8 10.2 60.2 9.2 9.6 Rockhampton 8,855 10,382-1,528 97,847 107,707 434,534 24.8 8.2 49.4 11.3 6.5 Sale 11,503 11,838-335 103,645 120,341 490,350 24.5 9.6 56.1 11.2 17.0 Sandhurst 9,388 11,438-2,050 90,135 93,663 357,695 26.2 10.0 59.7 11.4 7.0 Sydney 98,308 103,310-5,002 594,700 611,431 2,223,104 27.5 16.1 58.9 23.1 29.8 Toowoomba 7,084 8,615-1,531 62,822 66,288 260,108 25.5 10.7 51.7 12.4 5.2 Townsville 5,895 6,177-282 72,966 80,245 278,488 28.8 7.3 50.0 12.3 7.8 Wagga Wagga 7,817 9,395-1,578 62,983 63,377 196,075 32.3 12.3 58.0 11.0 6.1 Wilcannia-Forbes 2,747 3,519-772 33,439 32,536 108,549 30.0 8.4 61.9 8.1 3.5 Wollongong 19,598 22,306-2,708 179,447 186,791 656,793 28.4 10.5 62.0 12.5 15.2 Military Ordinariate of Australia 1 539 694-155 1,934 2,461 9,542 25.8 21.9 - - - Maronite 2 15,243 12,931 2,312 [29,075] [30,665] - - 49.7 - - - Melkite 2 1,609 1,701-92 [1,985] [2,500] - - 64.4 - - - Ukrainian 2 1,756 1,453 303 [3,621] [3,058] - - 57.4 - - - Chaldean 2 3,200 4,500-1,300 [4,500] [4,975] - - 64.3 - - - Notes: 1 Population figures for the Military Ordinariate refer to persons living on military bases. They do not include all Armed Services personnel and their families, most of whom do not live on military 2 The Chaldean, Maronite, Melkite and Ukrainian population figures are included in individual diocesan Population totals (because the Eastern dioceses and eparchies cover the whole of Australia), but are also shown here to allow calculation of attendance rates. The Melkite and Ukrainian Eparchies provided an average weekly attendance for the four weeks of the count period. The Chaldean Diocese provided a single approximate weekly attendance figure. 3 Per cent of s living at the same address as at the time of the previous Census in 2006. 4 Percentage of population aged 15+ with a university degree. 5 Percentage of population born in non-english speaking countries. 7
Table 4. Australian summary Australia Mean weekly total attendance Population Total Population Per cent Attendance Rate 2011 662,376 5,439,268 21,507,719 25.3 12.2 2006 708,618 5,126,884 19,855,287 25.8 13.8 Change 2006-2011 -46,243 312,384 1,652,432-0.5-1.6 Percentage change 2006-2011 -6.5 6.1 8.3 Conclusion We have reached a critical moment with regard to Mass attendance in Australia. Between 2006 and 2011, the number of dioceses with attendance rates below ten per cent rose from two to fourteen. It is not improbable that the number could increase by another nine by the time of the next national count in 2016, and several dioceses could drop to as low as five per cent. The age profile of current attenders makes it almost certain that we have not yet seen the end of the decline in total attendances; only an unprecedented surge in attendance among people who do not currently attend Mass, or the unanticipated arrival of large numbers of s from non-english speaking countries, could offset the inevitable effects of advancing age. The parish has been the bedrock of the Church in Australia, but its survival in many parts of the country is no longer assured. While there are numerous examples of strong, vital parish communities 2, in other places the viability of parishes is threatened by declining attendances. Urgent action is required if we are to save the treasure that is the Australian parish. 2 See, for example, the Building Stronger Parishes website at www.buildingstrongerparishes.catholic.org.au. 8
About the authors Robert (Bob) Dixon is the Director of the Pastoral Research Office and an Honorary Professor at Australian University. Stephen Reid is a Research Officer at the Pastoral Research Office and an Honorary Fellow at Australian University. Marilyn Chee is a Research Assistant at the Pastoral Research Office and also a sessional teaching staff member in the School of Business at Australian University. 9
ACBC Pastoral Research Office Australian University Locked Bag 4115 FITZROY VIC 3065 Ph: 03 9953 3457 Email: office@pro.catholic.org.au Web: www.pro.catholic.org.au