/ RELEASE 41 a. RUTGERS UNIVERSITY The State University of New Jersey C FOR RELEASE: FRIDAy, OCTOBER 20, 1972 THE EAGLETON INSflTUTE OF POLITICS Wood Lawn.Neilson Campus New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901 CONTACT: JOHN C. BLYDEN BURGH Tel.201-828-2210 Eagleton Institute Richard Nixon s strategy of putting together a coalition of traditional Republicans and dissident Democrats seems to be working In New Jersey with some notable exceptions. According to the Eagleton Institute s New Jersey Poll, a statewide sample of 1221 persons reveals that Nixon is preferred to McGovern by 54% to 31% with 15% undecided. Although Nixon s support crosses most of the categories of voters polled, a notable exception was the much touted youth vote. Among 18 24 year olds, McGovern is preferred 48% to Nixon s 41% with 11% undecided. Since the sample is slightly biased against student respondents who are expected to be solidly pro McGovern, this breakdown Is probably a conservative estimate of McGovern s youth support. Nixon s chief campaign problem is reflected in the breakdown of political party preference in the poll. Democrats outnumber Republicans by 53% to 35%. Evidence of the success of Nixon s strategy to attract away Democrats can be found by looking at the breakdown of cand±date support by political party preference. Republican support for Nixon is very solid with only 3% of the Republicans voting for McGovern and 7% undecided, the rest going to Nixon. But Nixon has captured 30% of the avowed Democrats to McGovern s 53% while an unusually large 17% remain undecided. more
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of the unskilled workers and 55% of the skilled workers replied fair to poor. policies. Asked how they feel Nixon Is doing handling the economy 65% class Democrats. While unskilled and skilled workers seem to be shifting ReleaSe: Oct. 20, 1972 to Nixon in 1972, they are not doing it out of love for Nixon s economic C 30 and the Eagleton Institute of Politics. The New Jersey Poll is supported by grants from the Wallace-Eljabar Foundation The results were tabulated by the Opinion Research Corp. of Princeton, N.J. Institute and surveyed 1221 randomly selected New Jersey residents over 18. The Fourth New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone from Eagleton More than High School 44 45 11 High School Complete 26 60 14 Less than High School 28 53 19 Education McGovern Nixon Undeäided of the traditional distribution of support for Democratic candidates. group and substantially behind in other groups. This pattern is the opposite high school. McGovern is about even with Nixon among respondents in this McGovern s greatest support comes from respondents with education beyond When the sample is broken down by education it can be seen that White Collar 47 37 10 Skilled 51 19 32 Unskilled 64 34 30 Sales 52 32 20 Tob Type Democratic McGovern Loss Percent Percent for McGovern McGovern s major difficulty seems to be the desertion of working
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RUTGERS UNIVERSITY The State University of New Jersey TO: PROM: New Jersey Political Reporters John C. Blydenburgh Eagleton Institute of Politics ThE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS Wood Lawn, Neilson Campus New Brunswick. New Jersey 08901 Tel. 201-828-2210 October 19, 1972 RE: The Fourth New Jersey Poll, Release *1, October 20, 1972 The Eagleton Institute of Rutgers University has just completed Interviewing for the Fourth New Jersey Poll. Between October 6 and October 15 a random sample 1221 New Jersey residents were interviewed by telephone from New Brunswick. Questionnaires were tabulated by Opinion Research Corporation who also designed and selected the sample. We wishto make it clear that we do not look at the poi 1 results reported here as a prediction of the outcome of this year s presidential elecuon. The low level of interest in this year s campaign and the relatively soft support for the candidates suggest that early poll results this year may not be a good indicator of candidate performance. Thus, in the accompanying press release we have tded to emphasize analysis rather than prediction of Nixon s and McGovern s support. A note on the sample of 18-24 year olds: telephone interviewing under-represents collage students living on campus, thus we feel that support for McGovern is underestimated by these results. It is clear that New Jersey youth support for McGovern over Nixon, in apparent conflict with results from national samples of the youth vote. The questions on which the accompanying ralease is based are as follows: Head to Head - Suppose the election for President were being held today and you had to choose right now would you vote for Richard Nixon the Republican, or George McGovern the Democrat? Party Identification In politics as of today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?
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NJ Political Reporters 2 October 1, 1972 Job type is coded by an objectively determined set of categories by Opinion Research Corporation. Nixon McGovern Undecided All Respondents 54 31 15 Democrat 30 53 17 Independent 42 22 36 Republican 90 3 7 - Liberal 36 50 14 In Between/Undecided 45 39 16 Conservative 70 17 13 18 24 41 48 11 25 29 52 40 8 30 49 55 30 15 50orover 61 20 19 White 59 27 14 Non White 17 65 18 Income under $5,000 41 40 19 $5,000 $1o,000 51 34 15 $10,000 $is,000 62 27 11 over $15,000 56 32 12 H.S. incomplete or less 53 28 13 High School complete 60 26 14 Some college or more 45 44 11 Man 55 31 14 Woman 53 31 16 Unskilled semi skilled 50 34 16 Skilled bluecollar 63 19 18 Sales and clerical 57 32 10 Manager,sem.i professional 51 37 12 other 49 45 5 C Catholic 60 25 15 Protestant 56 30 14 Other 33 48 19 -v t -.C v.- - _ -_.
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*Does not total to 100 due to rounding. Prefer McGovern 16 12 32 6 3 25 3 3 100 included data breaking down candidate preference in the general election Undecided 16 10 2 20 2 21 5 22 98 * Candidate Supported in Democratic Primary Election C a, In addition to data supporting the accompanyinç release, we have Political Reporters 3 October 19, 1972 PreferNixon 19 16 8 25 2 19 3 9 101 * a, z -, U a) _c o S 0 H E U) (I) (ti a 0 0 (1) t4.j. a) a, >1. C) C) 0 0 those who were undecided on party affiliation. These data include only self identified Democrats, Independents, and by candidate preference in the Tune 1972 Democratic pdmary election.
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