She t&1lcbgcf/eagleton POLL FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1989 CONTACT: JANICE BALL.OU RELEASE: SL./EP 27I (EP fli) OR BOB CARTER FI 4$E INFORMATION A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will appear in Sundays StarLedger. Other newspapers may also use this information in their Sunday editions. Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Saturday, November 4. We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the StarLedger/Eagleton Poll. IN THE HOMESTRETCIfFLORIO LEADS BY 24 POINTS Jim Florio, the Democratic candidate for governor has a substantial 24 point lead over his opponent Jim Courter, the Republican, going into Tuesday s election. Florio continues to have stronger partisan support than Courter, and is heavily favored among independent voters. The latest Star Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted by telephone with 1,000 likely voters from October 29 to November 2, 1989. In addition, the survey identified 628 probable voters representing those who are most likely to turn out on election day. As he has during the course of this gubernatorial campaign, Jim Florio continues to get more support from voters than Jim Courter. Florio now leads Courter by a margin of 54 percent to 30 percent among probable voters. Sixteen percent have not yet decided who they will vote for. When the preferences of undecided voters are taken into account, the survey results project Florio receiving about 62 percent of the vote among those most likely to go to the polls on November 7. One of Florio s main advantages in this election comes from the more than 2toi lead he has over Courter among independentsby a margin of 56 to 22 percent In addition, Florio has much stronger support within his own party than Courter. While 85 percent of the Democrats say they will vote for Florio, only 65 percent of the Republicans pick Courter. more A fl ENTION RADIO STATIONS: Audio is available after 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, November 4, 1989 from (201) 9323605 (Rutgers Feature Phone). It1111EIZ.S THE STA1 UNtPSW Of NEW JEfWV Eogleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey 08901 201/8282210
More voters continue to have a more positive image of Florio than of Courter. the independent vote, it looks like Florio has been able to bring home the Democrats that Janice Ballou, Director of the Poll, commented: In addition to winning over much of Courter than Florio by a margin of 29 to 15 percent. in3 feel this way about Jim Courter. More voters did not have any opinion or did not know While about 6intO say their impression of Jim Eorio is favorable, just slightly more than 1 Copyright, November 5, 1989, The Eagleton Institute and Newark StarL edger. 30 the one for Governor. It will be really important for voters to remember to participate in these elections as well as The assembly elections look like they will be closely contested, commented Ballou. Republicans by a margin of 39 to 33 percent. being contested. Based on this latest poll, the Democrats have a slight edge over the In addition to the race for Governor, all 80 seats in the New Jersey Legislature are Ballou, Poll Director. support throughout the campaign and seems to be continuing his momentum, said Janice in these last few days before the election, Florio has been able to maintain a solid base of Although there are still some undecided and soft voters that may change theft mind Florio has his largest advantage over Courter by a margin of 73 to 27 percent. Among those voters who have made their choice for governor in the last few days, currently support one of the candidates say they might change theft mind. candidate say they are sure about who they will vote for. However, about I in 5 voters who up. Among those voters who have made up their minds, 8inlO of the supporters of each With the election just a few days away, support for each of the candidates is firming Kean and Reagan had persuaded to vote for them. EP7TI (SL/EP271) Page 2
is 632, with a sampling error of ±4.0 percent. percent of registered voters. The sample size of this group Voters based on a projected turnout of between 60 and 65 registered to vote and who report they will definitely or are likelym voters. These are people who say they are probably vote. Figures are also presented for a smaller subset of Probable NOTE: This release on the election is based on New Jerseyans who BACKGROUND MEMO RELEASE SL/EP271 (EP7IU. SUNDAY. NOVEMBER 5. 1989 (Courter/Florio) favorable or unfavorable, or don t you have an opinion about him? * In June, September, and midoctober the following question was asked: Is your general impression of Florio 39 18 41 3 101 (717) Florio 41 13 43 4 101 (707) June 1989Registered Voters Florio 41 11 40 8 100 (647) Kean 37 18 42 3 100 (1162) Florio 43 18 37 2 100 (1176) October 1989Likely Voters Courter 24 23 42 10 99 (717) September 1989Likely Voters Courter 22 21) 40 18 100 (707) Courter 18 7 46 30 101 (646) October 1981Registered Voters Republican 33 49 12 5 99 (283) Democrat 81 7 8 3 99 (325) Independent 62 23 14 1 100 (337) Pam (Oct/Nov 1989 Total).4 iobable Voters 63 26 9 1 99 (632) FLORIOLIKELY VOTERS 59 25 12 3 99 (1000)..Independent 35 37 17 11 100 (337) Democrat 18 48 15 19 100 (325) Pam, (Oct/Nov 1989 Total) Republican 63 17 9 11 100 (283) obable Voters 39 39 13 9 100 (632) COURTERLIKELY VOTERS 36% 35% 15% 14% 100% (1000) LATE ourearly NOV. 1989 Favorable Unfavorable No Ouinion Not Recowilzed Is your general impression of (CourterfFlorio) favorable or unfavorable? as follows: interviewed before the data are statistically weighted. The questions and figures referred to in this release are ± 3.2 percent. Sampling error is the probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in the )robably vote in November s election. Figures based on this sample size are subject to a sampling error of The latest StarLedger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between October 29 and November 2, 1989, when a random sample of 1,000 New Jerseyans ages 18 years and older was interviewed by telephone. The survey was administered only with respondents who reported being registered to vote and saying they would definitely or population versus a scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The a is the actual number of people ([he tarjlcbgcr/eagleton POLL
EP771 (SL/EP271) 2 Suppose the election for was held today and you had to choose right now. Would you vote for Jim the Republican; or Jim Florio, the Courter Governor Democrat? COURTER (Republican Canddptel UNDECIDED FLORIO (Democratic Candidatel Likely Voters 28% 18% 54% 100% (989) Probable Voters 30 16 54 100 (628) Pa Democrat Independent 5 9 85 99 (324) 22 22 56 100 (332) Republican 65 17 18 100 (278) ideglen Liberal 14 10 76 100 (180) 27 18 56 101 (470) Conservative 43 17 41 101 (264) Moderate Gender Men 31 15 54 100 (480) Women 25 20 55 100 (509) White 32 18 51 101 (807) Nonwhite 13 17 70 100 (169) Reeipn North 27 18 55 100 (476) Central 30 18 52 100 (265) South 28 17 55 100 (248) Tyye Central city 14 19 67 100 (100) Cities and older suburbs 24 20 56 100 (222) New suburbs 30 17 53 100 (529) Rural 38 17 45 100 (138) of Community October 1989 32 19 49 100 (700) September 1989 30 17 53 100 (691) June 1989 32 17 49 98 (647) Voters) (Registered October 1981 37 19 43 99 (1097) (Likely Voters; Kean/Florlo) * Does not include 2% who said they would not vote.
EP771 (SL/EP271) 3 Those choosing either Courter or Florio were asked if they were very sure about voting for him, or might you change your mind before election day? Of the Courter voters, 81 percent said they were sure and 19 percent said they might change. Eighty percent of Florio voters were firm while 20 percent said they might switch. Undecided voters were asked at this moment do you lean more towards Courter, or more towards Floric? percent leaned to Courter, 20 percent to Florio and the remainder did not state a preference. Twenty With the leaners allocated, and with firmness of preference taken into account, voters displayed the following pattern: COURTER (Republican Candidate) Ernn ft J FLORIO (Democratic Candidate) UWDECIDED La S2ft fizm Ica1 La) Likely Voters 23% 5% 4% 11% 3% 11% 43% 100% (989) Probable Voters 25 4 4 10 3 6 48 100 (628) Parry (Oct/Wow 1989 Total) Democrat 4 2 1 6 3 12 73 101 (324) Independent 16 5 4 15 3 14 42 99 (332) Republican 56 9 6 9 2 7 11 100 (278) October1989 20 12 3 12 5 15 34 101 (700) September 1989 16 14 1 13 3 22 31 100 (691) June 1989 17 16 2 11 4 29 21 100 (632) (Registered Voters) October 1981 27 10 5 11 4 13 30 100 (1086) As of Thursday night (Nov. 2), with undecided voters allocated, the two party division of the vote among probable voters was: Florio 62%; Courter 38%. When did you decide who you would vote forin the last few days, in the last couple of weeks, in the last month or two, or before that? Last Last Couple Last Month Before Don t Few Days of Weeks or Two Two Months Know Içjj La) Likely Voters 9% 24% 32% 31% 4% 100% (804) Probable Voters 6 20 32 38 4 100 (520) Choice (or Governor Courter 7 25 32 30 5 99 (279) Florio 10 23 32 32 3 100 (524) October 1989 14 23 23 31 4 100 (587) CHOICE FOR GOVERNOR When Decided IThp To Vote For Courter Florio M Last few days 27% 73% 100% (70) Last couple of weeks 36 64 100 (185) Last month or two 34 66 100 (250) Before two months 33 67 100 (264) Question was onô asked of the 804 likely voters who selected a candidate to vote for.
EP771 (SL/EP271) 4 Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you think will win the election for Governor? Courter Flprip No Opinion jj Likely Voters 12% 66% 22% 100% (990) Probable Voters 9 73 18 100 (629) October 1989 24 61 15 100 (717) September 1989 22 59 19 100 (707) June 1989 28 52 20 100 (647) (Registered Voters) How interested are you in the outcome of this electionvery, somewhat, not very, or not at all interested? Don t Somewhat Not Very Not at all Know Ick1 zii Likely Voters 55% 37% 4% 2% 2% 100% (999) Probable Voters 73 25 1 0 1 100 (632) October 1989 54 37 5 2 1 99 (717) September 1989 44 37 14 4 1 100 (707) If the election for State Assembly was held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidates from your district? Don t Democratic Republican Other Know Ica1 LnI Likely Voters 39% 33% 3% 24% 99% (1000) Probable Voters 41 34 5 20 100 (632) October 1989 37 31 1 31 100 (717) September 1989 31 26 2 42 101 (706)