OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends. Challenges & Opportunities. Discussion

People on the Move James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill January 2017

OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

what CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL January 2017

6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma s Well and Grandpa s Too!

People on the Move The South Rises Again!

The South Continues To Rise...Again!

Years SOUTH S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010 U.S. Absolute Population Change South s Absolute Population Change South s Share of Change 1910-1930 30,974,129 8,468,303 27% 1930-1950 28,123,138 9,339,455 33% 1950-1970 51,886,128 15,598,279 30% 1970-1990 45,497,947 22,650,563 50% 1990-2010 60,035,665 29,104,814 49%

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Region REGION, 2000-2010 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, 2000-2010 Percent Population Change, 2000-2010 U.S. 309,050,816 26,884,972 9.5% Northeast 55,417,311 1,753,978 3.3% Midwest 66,972,887 2,480,998 3.0% South 114,555,744 14,318,924 14.3% West 72,256,183 8,774,852 13.8%

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010 Region Absolute Population Change Percent of Total UNITED STATES 26,884,972 100.0 NORTHEAST 1,753,978 6.0 MIDWEST 2,480,998 9.0 SOUTH 14,318,924 53.0 WEST 8,774,852 32.0

NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 Northeast Midwest South West Total -1,032-2,008 +2,287 +46 Black -346-71 +376 +41 Hispanic -292-109 +520-117 Elderly -115 +42 +97-27 Foreign born -147-3 +145 +3 = Net Import = Net Export

STATE SHARE OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010 Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 14,318,924 100.0% Texas 4,293,741 30.0% Florida 2,818,932 19.7% Georgia 1,501,200 10.5% North Carolina 1,486,170 10.4% Other Southern States 4,218,881 29.4%

GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010 The Region Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net 2004-2007 4,125,096 3,470,431 654,665 268,619 132,382 136,237 2007-2010 3,874,414 3,477,899 396,525 232,501 132,201 100,300 Florida Domestic Foreign Years In Out Net In Out Net 2004-2007 812,053 630,051 182,002 41,745 24,108 17,637 2007-2010 654,931 668,087-13,156 33,095 32,094 1,001

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2010-2015 Region 2015 Population Absolute Population Change, 2010-2015 Percent Population Change, 2010-2015 U.S. 321,418,820 12,071,957 3.9% Northeast 56,283,891 896,717 1.6% Midwest 67,907,403 929,898 1.4% South 121,182,847 6,319,989 5.5% West 76,044,679 3,925,353 5.4%

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2010-2015 Region UNITED STATES Absolute Population Change Percent of Total 12,071,957 100.0 NORTHEAST 896,717 7.4 MIDWEST 929,898 7.7 SOUTH 6,319,989 52.3 WEST 3,925,353 32.5

STATE SHARES OF SOUTH S NET GROWTH, 2010-2015 Region/State Absolute Change State s Share The South 6,319,989 100.0% Texas 2,244,751 35.5% Florida 1,421,382 22.5% Georgia 501,406 7.9% North Carolina 483,823 7.7% Virginia 357,206 5.7% Other Southern States 1,311,421 20.7%

Two colorful demographic processes are drivers of change Browning & Graying of America

The Browning of America Immigration-driven population change

The Numbers Legal Immigrants Year Annual Flow 1920-1961 206,000 1961-1992 561,000 1993-1998 800,654 1999-2004 879,400 2005-2008 1,137,000 2009-2012 1,067,000 Refugees, Parolees, Asylees Year Annual Flow 1961-1993 65,000 1994-1998 107,000 1999-2004 85,500 2005-2008 75,000 2009-2012 92,500

The Numbers Cont d Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in 1986 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated there were 5 million illegal immigrants in U.S. Since August 2005: Estimates of illegal population have ranged between 7 million and 15 million Today: An estimated 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.

NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2011 Year All Classes Exchange Visitors Academic & Vocational Students 1981 11,756,903 108,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) 1985 9,539,880 141,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) 1990 17,574,055 214,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) 1995 22,640,540 241,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) 2000 33,690,082 351,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) 2001 32,824,088 389,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) 2002 27,907,139 370,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) 2008 39,381,928 506,138 (1%) 917,373 (2%) 2011 53,082,286 526, 931 (1%) 1,702,730 (3%)

Number of Immigrants (in millions) U.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2014 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 42.2 35.2 31.1 19.8 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.1 11.6 10.3 10.3 9.7 9.6 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2014 Year

U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Race/Ethnicity Foreign Population Share of Total (%) Total 42,235,749 100.0 Hispanic 19,300,947 45.7 White Alone, not Hispanic Black Alone, not Hispanic Asian Alone, not Hispanic Other Alone, not Hispanic 7,655,008 18.1 3,377,733 8.0 11,036,059 26.1 866,002 2.1 25

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY Race RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 2010 Percentage Change 2000-2010 Total 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Non-Hispanic 258,267,944 12,151,856 4.9% White 196,817,552 2,264,778 1.2% Black 37,685,848 3,738,011 11.0% AI/AN 2,247,098 178,215 8.6% Asian 14,465,124 4,341,955 42.9% NH/PI 481,576 128,067 36.2% 2 or More Races 5,966,481 1,364,335 29.6% Hispanic 50,477,594 15,171,776 43.0%

NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010 Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 27,323,632 91.7 55.5 South 14,318,924 79.6 46.4 Texas 4,293,741 89.2 65.0 Florida 2,818,932 84.9 54.7 Georgia 1,501,206 81.0 27.9 North Carolina 1,486,170 61.2 28.3

NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2010-2015 Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US 12,071,957 95.2 48.3 South 6,319,986 80.9 40.7 Texas 2,224,751 98.3 51.9 Florida 1,421,382 80.0 50.0 Georgia 501,406 86.3 19.3 NC 483,823 67.0 23.0 VA 357,206 85.7 32.6

MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2014 Race Total Male Female United States 37.7 36.3 39.0 White Alone 40.4 39.0 39.6 White, Non-Hispanic 43.1 41.7 41.8 Black Alone 33.4 31.6 35.1 AI/AN Alone 32.5 31.1 33.6 Asian Alone 36.5 35.3 37.7 NH/PI Alone 30.8 30.3 31.6 Two or More Races 19.6 19.1 20.2 Hispanic 28.4 27.9 29.1 January 2017 29

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity 1990 2008 2011 White 66% 50% 49.6% Blacks 17% 16% 15.0% Hispanics 15% 26% 26.0% Other 2% 8% 9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity 2005 2050 White 67% 47% Blacks 12.8% 13% Hispanics 14% 29% Asian 5% 9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

The Graying of America The Silver Tsunami is about to hit

Key Drivers Changes in Longevity Declining Fertility Aging of Boomer Cohort

U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH YEAR AGE 1900 47.3 1930 59.7 1960 69.7 1997 76.5 2007 77.9 2010 78.3 2030 101.0

Centenarians in the U.S. Year Number 1950 2,300 2010 79,000 2050 601,000

COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN 40-44 YEARS OLD Year Percent Childless Avg. Number of Children Percent Higher Order Births* 2006 20 1.9 28 1976 10 3.1 59 *Three or more Children

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2012 Race/Ethnicity Total Fertility Rate All Races 1.88 Hispanic 2.18 Non-Hispanic White 1.76 Blacks 1.90 Asian 1.77 Native American 1.35

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2010 Age 2010 Absolute Change 2000-2010 Percentage Change 2000-2010 <25 25-44 45-64 65+ TOTAL 104,853,555 5,416,289 5.4% 82,134,554-2,905,697-3.4% 81,489,445 19,536,809 31.5% 40,267,984 5,276,231 15.1% 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Prescription Drug Deaths, 1999-2004

U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day 12,344 11,541 9,221 8,032 Average Number/Minute 8.6 8.0 6.4 5.6 January 2017 42

Metropolitan and Micropolitan Destinations of Elderly Migrants, 2006-2010

The Multigenerational Workforce

Multi-Generational Diversity Generation Birth Years Current Ages Est. Workforce Participation in 2013* Veterans Traditionalists WWII Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Boomers 1922-1945 70-93 5% (7M) 1946-1964 51-69 38% (60M) Generation X Baby Busters Generation Y Millennials 1965-1980 35-50 32% (51M) 1981-2000 15-34 25% (40M) January 2017 49 *Source: AARP Leading a Multi-Generational Workforce, 2007

Succession Planning & Accommodations for Elder Care Organizational Game Changers!

Signs of Global Aging Japan sells more adult diapers than baby diapers China has the 4:2:1 problem Today, 9% of the Chinese population is elderly (129 million) By 2050, the Chinese elderly population will total 330 million (25% of the total) larger than the entire U.S. population today

Signs of Global Aging, Cont d For the first time in 100 years, deaths exceeded births among U.S. non-hispanic whites in 2011 Today, 16% of the U.S. population is 65+; 26% will be elderly by 2040. Close to 40 million people in the U.S. provided unpaid eldercare in 2011 and 2012- - at an estimated cost of $30 billion in loss work productivity.

Signs of Global Aging Cont d 10 million millennials are caring for adult family members. 25 percent of U.S. caregivers are between 18 and 34 years of age. Google launches a medical company Calico to defeat death by prolonging life.

Family Life is Changing Ozzie and Harriet are no longer the norm!

Marrying Out is In January 2017 55

INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity January 2017 56

INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 January 2017 57

Living Arrangements are more diverse And Interesting!

COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA S WELL And Grandpa s Too!

Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, 2001-2010 Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change 2001-2010 All 74,718 2,712 3.8 No Grandparents 67,209 917 1.4 Both Grandparents Grandmother Only 2,610 771 41.9 1,922 164 9.3 Grandfather Only 318 71 28.7 Percent Change 2001-2010 January 2017 60

Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only All 74,718 69.3% 23.1% 3.4% 4.0% No Grandparents Both Grandparents Grandmother Only Grandfather Only 67,209 73.4% 21.2% 3.3% 2.1% Living with Neither parent 2,610 18.1% 40.6% 5.2% 36.1% 1,922 13.8% 48.4% 4.5% 33.2% 318 26.4% 45.9% 4.4% 23.6% January 2017 61

Type of Couple Married opposite sex Unmarried opposite sex Couple Households with Children, 2009 Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children 23,453,504 99.6 0.4 2,493,838 86.9 13.1 Same Sex 104,949 90.2 9.8 Percent Unrelated Children

Same Sex Couple Households with Children, 2009 Type of Couple Number of Households with Children Percent Own Children Same Sex 104,949 90.2 9.8 Unmarried Male-Male Unmarried Female- Female 33,010 94.5 5.5 71,936 88.3 11.7 Percent Unrelated Children

DIVERSITY RULES...but Challenges Abound September 2012 64

Workforce Planning and Development Challenges The End of Men? The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage Education necessary, but not sufficient

The End of Men?

FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 % Female

JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry Women Men Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451,800 +118,100 Government +176,000 +12,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to 1969. Selective male withdrawal from labor market rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREE MALE FEMALE DIFFERENCE Associate s 293,000 486,000 193,000 Bachelor s 702,000 946,000 244,000 Master s 257,000 391,000 134,000 Professional 46,800 46,400-400 Doctor s 31,500 32,900 1,400 TOTAL 1,330,300 1,902,300 572,000

Gender Composition of Student Head Count Enrollment in NC Colleges & Universities, Fall 2014 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male Enrollment All Institutions 554,505 230,672 41.6 Bible Colleges 3,880 2,720 70.1 Public Institutions 459,651 189,749 41.3 UNC System 220,121 95,435 43.3 PWIs 181,246 81,304 44.9 MSIs 38,875 14,131 36.3 HBUs 32,653 11,835 36.2 Community Colleges 239,530 104,313 43.5 Private Institutions 90,974 38,204 42.0 Senior Colleges & Universities 90,296 37,755 41.8 Junior Colleges 678 449 66.2

The Triple Whammy of Geographical Disadvantage The Human Capital Challenge

Racial Typology of U.S. Counties

U.S. Racial Segregation by Census Tract

U.S. School Age Poverty by Census Tract

The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage

Summary Indicators of Exposure Level of Vulnerability Number of Youth Percent Non-White Triple Whammy 9.8 million 93 Double Whammy 12.2 million 81 Single Whammy 20.0 million 39 No Whammy 32.1 million 24

NC s Triple Whammy of Geographical Disadvantage The Human Capital Challenge

Absolute and Percent Population Change, 2000-2010 Area 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 U.S. 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% South 114,555,744 14,318,924 14.3% North Carolina 9,335,483 1,46,120 18.5%

NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, 1990-2007 829% 547% 332% 129% 127% 133% 182% Native Immigrant White Black Hispanic Asian Pacific Islander

Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in North Carolina, 2010-2014 Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: www.census.gov *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age 39.2 43.6 36.2 35.7 33.2 27.3 23.9 17.2 23.9 39.4 38.0 Fertility/1000 women* 54 47 56 65 63 81 81 69 84 50 83

Absolute and Percent Population Change, 2010-2015 Area 2015 Population Absolute Change 2010-2015 Percent Change 2010-2015 U.S. 321,418,820 12,071,957 3.9% South 121,182,847 6,319,989 5.5% North Carolina 10,042,802 483,823 5.1%

NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2010-2014 Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share NC 408,481 67.3 23.1

NC Absolute Population Growth by County, 2010-2015

Demographic Change Typology, NC Counties, 2010-2014

CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, 2000-2016. Group 2015-16 Enrollment 2000-01 Enrollment Absolute Change Percent Change Total 1,443,471 1,268,422 175,049 13.8 AI/AN 19,347 18,651 696 3.7 Black 370,872 393,712-22,840-5.8 Asian 43,108 23,576 19,532 82.8 Hispanic 238,837 56,232 182,605 324.7 White 714,459 776,251-61,792-8.0 Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

Race/Ethnic Profile of NC Public Schools, 2015-16 Race/Ethnicity Absolute Number Share of Total All Students 1,443,471 100.0 American Indian 19,347 1.3 Asian 43,108 3.0 Hispanic 238,837 16.5 Black 370,872 25.7 White 714,459 49.5 Two or more races 55,049 3.8 Pacific Islander 1,799 0.1

Racial Typology of North Carolina Counties

North Carolina Racial Segregation by Census Tract

North Carolina Poverty by Census Tract

The Triple Whammy of Geographic Disadvantage

Suspension Rates by County Type, Grades 9-13, 2014-15 County Type Majority- Majority Racial Generation Gap Majority- Minority Average Daily Membership Number of Suspensions Suspensions /100 Students Range of rates 263,910 40,309 15.3 2.4 62.3 136,535 33,645 24.6 8.0 65.4 30,885 11,480 37.1 11.4 76.1

Reportable Crimes by County Type, Grades 9-13, 2014-15 County Type Majority- Majority Racial Generation Gap Majority- Minority Average Daily Membership Reportable Crimes Reportable Crimes/1000 Students Range of Rates/1000 students 253,793 3,299 13.0 1.0 33.0 135,706 1,885 13.7 0 25.8 30,885 500 16.2 0 19.8

Number of Test Takers Male-Female Presence Disparity 6400 Total Number of EOC Test Takers 6200 6000 5800 5600 5400 5200 males females 5000 4800 4600 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 Year Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)

Percent of High School Graduates Requiring Remedial Course Work 2010 26.8 19.2 54 1,725 2009 24 20.8 55.2 1,587 2008 23.8 20.2 55.9 1,534 2007 25.6 19.2 55.2 1,261 2006 28.7 23.3 48 1,047 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 None One Two or MoreHS more GradsPercent of HS Grads

Education is Necessary...but insufficient

Key Takeaways Addressing the challenges facing our young people is a strategic imperative. We must create a more inclusive economy. Rejecting our diversity is the wrong path to take if the U.S. is to remain globally competitive.

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