Chapter 1: The Demographics of McLennan County

Chapter 1: The Demographics of McLennan County

General Population Since 2000, the Texas population has grown by more than 2.7 million residents (approximately 15%), bringing the total population of the state to slightly less than 24 million people. In 2006, a relatively high birth rate and increasing international immigration catapulted Texas past California as the country s fastest growing state. i A burgeoning population, which includes a growing child population, has created a need for increased services for the children and families of the state that includes early care and education. Section 1. 1 Statistics from the State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer ii report that the 23.9 million residents of the state of Texas are divided almost equally between the genders; 50.5% male and 49.5% female. The population of Texas is primarily Anglo (47.4%) and Hispanic (36.8%) with the balance of residents of either African American (11.6%) or other (4.1%) heritage. Slightly more than 1 in 4 (26.9%) of the residents are under 18 years of age. McLennan County 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total population 220,123 219,736 222,313 224,167 225,771 Anglo population 137,317 135,072 134,445 133,354 132,069 African American 34,103 34,057 34,526 34,825 35,056 population Hispanic population 44,898 46,718 49,251 51,698 54,187 Other population 3,805 3,916 4,091 4,290 4,459 Table 1.1.1 Population Changes for McLennan County (2003-2007) General Population Source: Texas State Data Center, Office of the Demographer Page 43

The Demographics of McLennann County 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total population - Anglo Total population - African American Total population - Hispanic Total population - Other race Figure 1.1.2 Population Distribution by Race (2002-2006) Source: Texas State Data Center and State Demographers Office In McLennan County, the total population (2007) of 225,771 residents is 49% male and 51% female. Furtherr examination of the demographics for McLennan County reveals that the ethnic distribution is 58.5% Anglo, 24% Hispanic, 14.2% African American, and 2% other races. Table 1.1.1, which details the ethnic distribution for McLennan County, also illustrates the changes that have occurred over the past five years. Further, the table provides additional insight into the trends leading to the future demographics of the county, a future which will be examined in greater detail in Section 1.4. Maps prepared by the Texas State Demographer s Office, using data from the 2000 United States Census, graphically describe the ethnic characteristics of McLennan County in the year 2000. The maps clearly show that the predominant ethnic group in McLennan County, at that time, was the Anglo population (53.2% 75.0%) followed by the Hispanic, African American and Other ethnicity in order of decreasing predominance. The series of maps (figures 1.1.3 1.1.6) further compare the demographic characteristics of McLennan County against the other counties across the state. Page 44

The Demographics of McLennann County McLennan County Figure 1.1.3 Percent Anglo Population Texas Counties (2000) Anglo Percent Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer McLennan County Figure 1.1.4 Percent African American Population Texas Counties (2000) African American Percent Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Page 45

The Demographics of McLennan County McLennan County Figure 1.1.5 Percent Hispanic Population Texas Counties (2000) Hispanic Percent Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer McLennan County Figure 1.1.6 Percent Other Race / Ethnicity Population Texas Counties (2000) Other Race / Ethnicity Percent Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Page 46

In a 2008 report prepared by the Texas State Library and Archives Commission, McLennan County was ranked as the 21 st most populous county in Texas iii with a total population that is estimated at slightly over 228,000. Table 1.1.1, which details the population changes in McLennan County for half a decade spanning the years 2003 through 2007, shows that the African American and Hispanic population each has grown by 2.8% and 20.7% respectively. However, during the same time frame, the Anglo population has declined approximately 3.8%. The current population estimates rank McLennan County as the 13 th and 22 nd largest African American and Hispanic populations respectively among all of the counties of Texas. As the figures and table demonstrate, the demographics of McLennan County are experiencing dynamic growth and changes that are a reflection of the population changes witnessed across the state of Texas. Predictions for the future populations of McLennan County will be examined in section 1.4. Next, section 1.2 will examine the child population and the changes of the past five years that have been reported for McLennan County residents who are younger than 18 years of age. Page 47

Key Points to Consider The population of the state of Texas continues to experience significant growth increasing from approximately 20.9 million (2000) to its current population of 23.9 million residents, an increase of 14.3%. The population of McLennan County grew to 225,771 residents (a 3.6% increase) between 2003 and 2007. McLennan County has experienced changes in the demographic profile of its population. While the county has witnessed a growth of the Hispanic and African American population, the Anglo population has declined. i ii iii Texas KIDS COUNT Annual Data Book. (2007). The State of Texas Children: 2007. Center for Public Policy Priorities: Texas. Texas State Data Center. (2008). 2007 Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity Estimates for the state of Texas and all Texas counties. Available at http://txsdc.utsa.edu/tpepp/2--7/2007asrestimates/alldata.pdf. Data extracted by Texas State Library and Archives Commission, (2008) Reference/Documents staff from http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/co-est2007-01-48.xls. Original Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Page 48

Child Population Across the state of Texas, the child population has undergone many changes over the past decade. Growth has been reported for all age groups with the exception of the 6 11 years old age group. The most dramatic growth has occurred in Texas 0 to 5 population. Estimates indicate that this age group grew by 290,000 between 2000 and 2006 and that there are currently, approximately 760,000 children in Texas that are between the critical ages of 3 to 4. i Across the state, the Hispanic population has the largest reported child population at 2.9 million. Anglos make up the next largest group with an estimated population of 2.4 million children. Finally, the African American child population is estimated at 795,000 residents. Despite the growth of the state s young population, approximately half of the state s counties are witnessing a decrease in their child population, mostly in the rural and small suburban sections of the state. The Texas counties seeing the greatest growth in the child population are in high density urban areas, particularly in the North Texas, Houston, Central Texas, and Texas Mexico border regions. ii Section 1. 2 Child Population The trend for the child population of McLennan County reflects those of the small suburban communities. Population estimates reported between 2000 and 2006 indicate that both the 6 11 and 12 14 year old age groups have decreased in size while the 15 to 17 year old age group has remained stable. However, McLennan County s early childhood age group (0 5 year olds) has grown in recent years. Table 1.2.1 and Figure 1.2.2 details the changes in the childhood population showing the 0 5 age group as the sole age group among all of the McLennan County child populations to increase in numbers, a noteworthy difference when compared against other larger metropolitan counties across the state. Page 49

McLennan County 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Ages 0 5 18,738 19,119 19,252 19,729 20,101 Ages 6 11 18,366 18,167 17,844 17,780 17,656 Ages 12 14 9,631 9,526 9,279 9,204 9,154 Ages 15 17 10,103 10,017 9,814 9,771 9,663 Table 1.2.1 Changes in the McLennan County Child Population by Age Group (2002 2006) Source: Anne E. Casey Foundation 2007 Kids Count 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Ages 0 5 Ages 6 11 Ages 12 14 Ages 15 17 5,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Figure 1.2.2 Graphic Representation of the Changes in the McLennan County Child Population by Age Group (2002 2006) Source: Anne E. Casey Foundation 2007 Kids Count In some areas of Texas, communities such as McLennan County are witnessing an emerging 0 5 age group in combination with a changing minority population. Changes in the demographics of the McLennan County child population parallel changes in the general population. Table 1.2.4, which details the characteristics of the child population in McLennan County between 2003 and 2007, shows that the overall population has remained consistent at slightly more than 56,000 children. However, the distribution Page 50

2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Other Hispanic African American Anglo among the ethnicities has shifted with a 13.96% increase in the Hispanic population. At the same time, the Anglo and African American populations have decreased 7.8% and 1.2% respectively. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Figure 1.2.3 Child population distribution by race, 2003 2006 Anglo (blue), African American (red), Hispanic (green), Other, including Asian (light purple) Source: Anne E. Casey Foundation 2007 Kids Count 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total child population 56,838 56,829 56,189 56,484 56,574 Anglo 29,354 28,818 27,941 27,565 27,080 African American 11,159 11,130 10,991 11,001 10,996 Hispanic 15,549 16,136 16,503 17,144 17,719 Other 776 745 754 774 779 Table 1.2.4 Changes in Childhood Population by Race (2002 2006) Source: Anne E. Casey Foundation 2007 Kids Count Finally, data for each McLennan County zip code was analyzed and populations of the 0 5 age group were identified and categorized. Table 1.2.5 details the results of the analysis. Further, the analysis compared the 0 5 population changes between 2000 and 2007 for each zip code. From the analysis, the zip codes with the largest child populations were identified with 76706 topping the list (Figure 1.2.6). This zip code also experienced the largest change in the 0 5 population, a 79.45% increase over the seven year period. Page 51

Figure 1.2.6 McLennan County Zip Codes with Largest 0 5 Population. 76706 76705 76708 76710 76707 76712 Zip Code Population Population Ages 0 5 Ages 0 5 (2000) a (2007) b (2000) a (2007) b 76524 2,434 2,301 173 156 76557 3,232 6,709 214 476 76624 2,284 3,348 148 215 76630 1,779 2,587 134 178 76633 3,579 4,194 210 264 76638 2,430 2,002 178 128 76640 3,113 4,324 210 293 76643 11,279 8,431 889 616 76654 335 ND NA NA 76655 6,228 9,404 349 608 76657 8,654 8,291 630 606 76664 3,411 4,241 230 278 76682 2,622 3,139 161 196 76684 228 ND ND ND 76691 6,342 7,753 417 496 76701 2,216 2,244 74 158 76704 7,560 7,964 759 715 76705 27,843 30,042 2,138 2,263 76706 29,449 35,377 1,869 3,354 76707 17,403 16,765 1,710 1,587 76708 21,278 21,822 1,582 1,704 76710 22,552 21,710 1,413 1,606 76711 8,619 7,878 764 706 76712 19,233 19,117 1,167 1,272 76798 3,123 ND ND ND Total 11,893 13,861 Table 1.2.5 McLennan County Child Population by Zip Code (2000 and 2007) Sources: a. U.S. Census Bureau 2000 b. Estimates 2001 2007, Geolytics, Inc. The results of the analysis indicate that the dynamics of the child population are rapidly changing across the state and the nation. Recognizing these changes will factor heavily in the community plans to deliver services to the population of McLennan County and the municipalities of this area. Page 52

Key Points to Consider The greatest child population growth in Texas is localized primarily to high density population areas. The 0 5 age group alone has grown in McLennan County over the past half decade. Changes in the child population for McLennan County reflect changes in the demographic profiles of its general population. The most dramatic growth has been witnessed among Hispanic children whose population has increased 13.6% in 5 years. 85.03% of the 0 5 year old age group lives in 6 zip codes of McLennan County. Page 53

i ii Texas KIDS COUNT Annual Data Book. (2007). The State of Texas Children: 2007. Center for Public Policy Priorities: Texas. Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer. (2007). Over Half of Texas Counties Seeing Decline in Their Child Population.; As received by: Texas KIDS COUNT Annual Data Book. (2007). The State of Texas Children: 2007. Center for Public Policy Priorities: Texas. Page 54

Race, Ethnicity, and Language in the Community Texas, along with California and Illinois, is home to one of the largest number of foreign born populations. [Between 2000 and 2007, the Texas immigrant population grew by 32.0%, from 2.9 million to 3.8 million.] Statewide, the foreign born, in relation to the total population, has experienced an increase from 13.9% of the Texas population (2000) to 16.0% in 2007. Immigrants from Mexico make up the largest group of foreign born persons in the United States. Nationwide, the immigrant population from Mexico nearly tripled between 1990 to 2008 i. Figure 1.3.1 Graphic Representation of the Distribution of Mexican Born Residents of the United States Texas has traditionally been home to a significant immigrant population from Mexico (Figure 1.3.1), but has also seen an influx of immigrants from El Salvador and Vietnam. In 2007, 75.1% of the foreign born in Texas originated from Latin Section 1. 3 Race, Ethnicity and Language in the Community Page 55

Zip Code % of foreign born 76707 13.9% 76711 12.4% 76706 10.4% 76708 9.2% 76657 7.7% 76701 6.5% McLennan County 6.1% 76524 5.1% 76705 3.9% 76691 3.8% 76710 3.8% 76712 3.6% 76557 3.4% 76638 3.1% 76643 2.6% 76798 2.1% 76624 1.8% 76633 1.7% 76640 1.3% 76655 1.3% 76630 1.2% 76664 0.8% 76682 0.8% 76704 0.7% 76654 ND 76684 ND Table 1.3.3 Foreign Born Population by Zip Code Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 America, 63.1% of which were from Mexico. An additional 3.6% of the immigrant population emigrated from Vietnam and 3.1% from El Salvador. ii In a 2003 report from the Migration Policy Institute, estimates suggest that approximately 42.5% of the foreign born population held U.S. citizenship while only 30.9% of the foreign born residents of the state of Texas were U.S. citizens. Further, the data indicates that 66.5% of the immigrants residing in Texas that entered the US before 1980 held US citizenship. In comparison, only 6.2% of immigrants entering the U.S. after 2000 had obtained US citizen status. iii In 2006, the foreign born population for McLennan County accounted for approximately 19,615 people, as indicated by Census reports. The overwhelming majority, approximately Country of Origin Mexico Vietnam Germany Korea Philippines China, excluding Hong Kong & Taiwan India Table 1.3.2 Top Countries of Origin for Foreign Born Residents of McLennan County Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey 14,750 of the foreign born population, does not hold US citizenship and entered the country before the year 2000. Further, the Census information indicates that the largest percentage of the immigrant population in McLennan County is from Mexico, mirroring national and state trends. In addition to the significant Mexican immigrant population, the county also has a population of immigrants that originated from other countries including Vietnam, Germany, Korea and the Philippines (Table 1.3.2). Page 56

Percent 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% An examination of the foreign born population residing in each of the McLennan County zip codes was conducted. The results of the analysis detailed in table 1.3.3 (previous page) revealed that 6.1% of the population of McLennan County is foreign born. Further, Foreign born population Speak language other than English the foreign born population of 6 of the county zip codes exceeded the county average of 6.1% with the maximum (13.9%) reported for 76707. McLennan County, in comparison to larger Figure 1.3.4 metropolitan areas Foreign Born Populations and Language Proficiency such as Dallas Fort Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey Worth and Austin, has a smaller percentage of foreign born immigrants and native persons who speak a language other than English (Figure 1.3.4). The county also has a higher Residents over 5 years of age Total population 209,969 English only 172,534 Language other than English 37,435 Speak English less than 17,287 very well Table 1.3.5 Languages Spoken at Homes in McLennan County Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey percentage of foreign born and non English speakers than Amarillo, and has a larger percentage of immigrants than Lubbock. McLennan County also has a higher percentage of immigrants and individuals who speak a language other than English than its neighboring area, Bryan College Station. According to Census 2000 information, 7,045 or 13.9% of children in Waco were living in Page 57

immigrant families, close to half of the overall state average. More than 6,000 of the children in immigrant families originated from Mexico. Zip Code % population 76711 37.9% 76707 28.1% 76706 24.2% 76708 18.2% 76657 16.3% 76701 15.8% McLennan County 15.6% 76524 15.0% 76691 14.8% 76798 13.5% 76705 13.1% 76557 12.6% 76710 11.6% 76712 9.1% 76643 7.9% 76638 7.7% 76640 7.1% 76633 6.9% 76655 6.2% 76630 6.0% 76682 6.0% 76664 5.3% 76704 3.2% 76624 3.0% 76654 ND 76684 ND Table 1.3.6 Zip Code Distribution of Residents >5 Years of Age who Speak Language Other than English Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Looking in depth, particular zip codes represented higher rates of foreign born and non English speakers compared with the overall county average of 6.1%. For instance, zip codes 76707, 76711, and 76706 all had a foreign born population of more than 10.0%. In addition, the same zip codes had a much higher percentage of individuals older than five years who spoke a language other than English or spoke English less than very well. In contrast with McLennan County s 15.6% and 6.8% average, the zip code 76711 had 37.9% of its population who spoke another language other than English and 17.5% who spoke another language and spoke English less than very well. The following zip codes of 76707 and 76706 also had close to 30% of the population who spoke another language and between 11.0 15.2% who did not speak English very well. Linguistic isolation, a term used to describe all persons in a household with limited English proficiency (LEP), can impact the way an individual or family gains access to resources and influence the way it builds human capital. As immigrants begin to lay a foundation in their newly acquired home, the ability to communicate in English becomes an important aspect of everyday living and a key factor to social mobility. From 2000 to 2007, the number of immigrants living in Texas who were limited English proficient (LEP) rose 38.2%, over ten percent higher than the U.S. average of 26.3%. Recent data shows that 62.5% of Texas foreign born persons ages five years and older were LEP. Research has also Page 58

Zip Code % Population foreign language speakers with limited English proficiency 76711 17.5% 76707 15.2% 76706 11.0% 76701 10.4% 76708 10.0% 76657 7.1% 76524 7.0% McLennan County 6.8% 76691 5.6% 76705 5.1% 76710 4.5% 76557 4.3% 76638 2.8% 76640 2.4% 76655 2.3% 76798 2.3% 76643 2.2% 76633 2.1% 76630 1.9% 76712 1.7% 76664 1.6% 76704 1.6% 76682 1.2% 76624 0.8% 76654 ND 76684 ND Table 1.3.7 Zip Code Distribution of Foreign Language Speakers with Limited English Language Proficiency Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 shown that immigrant persons who speak languages such as Spanish, are more likely to have a higher rate of being LEP. For instance, 75.0% of Spanish speaking immigrants ages five and older were LEP, in contrast with 54.0% of groups who spoke Asian and Pacific Islander languages, 30.3% of those who spoke Indo European languages, and 34.3% of populations who spoke other languages. iv Linguistic isolation, a term used to describe a household in which all persons are limited English proficient (LEP), can impact the way an individual or family gains access to resources and influence the way it builds human capital. According to 2007 Census reports, 8.7% of all households in Texas were linguistically isolated, a little less than double the average for the U.S. As language comes into play in the lives of the nation s newcomers, other challenges may emerge that are deeply rooted in the ability to communicate effectively. For example, the number of immigrants with less than a high school diploma grew 25% between 2000 and 2007, although the number of immigrants with a college degree has also risen in that time. Still, only 18.9% of the Texas immigrant population ages 25 and older had a bachelor s degree or higher, compared with 46.9% of immigrants who did not complete high school. v In addition to educational attainment, basic English literacy can also pose a challenge to recent newcomers. In 2003, research from the National Assessment of Adult Literacy found that nearly one in seven adults in the U.S. lacked basic English reading skills. In Texas, 19% of the general population lacked basic prose literacy skills. Immigrant adults, in particular, had much higher rates of literacy difficulties, 46.2% scoring below basic on prose literacy, 36.3% on document literacy, and 45.3% on quantitative literacy. vi Page 59

Key Points to Consider The foreign born population in Texas, in relation to the total population, has increased from 13.9% (2000) to 16.0% (2007). Immigrants from Mexico make up the largest group of foreign born persons in the United States. In 2003, approximately 30.9% of the foreign born population in Texas was US citizens. In comparison, 42.5%.of the foreign born population in the United States holds US citizenship. 6.1% of the population of McLennan County is foreign born. 6.8% of the McLennan County population is limited English proficient. i ii iii iv v vi Mexican Residents in the United States. 2009. Pew Research Center. Available at http://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/47.pdf Migration Policy Institute. The Foreign Born from Mexico in the U.S. 2003. http://www.migrationinformation.org Migration Policy Institute. The Foreign Born from Mexico in the U.S. 2003. http://www.migrationinformation.org Migration Policy Institute. The Foreign Born from Mexico in the U.S. 2003. http://www.migrationinformation.org Migration Policy Institute. The Foreign Born from Mexico in the U.S. 2003. http://www.migrationinformation.org National Assessment of Adult Literacy. National Center for Education Statistics. 2003. http://nces.ed.gov/naal Page 60

The Future of McLennan County Demographics As Texas continues to attract more families with diverse backgrounds and cultures, the state will be faced with new opportunities and challenges. In 2000, the population for the 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Figure 1.4.1 Projected Population Changes for the State of Texas (2000 2040) Source: Texas State Data Center Total Anglo African American Hispanic Other state of Texas stood at 20.8 million people. Estimates from the State Demographer suggest that the population will approach 36 million by 2040, almost double the 2000 population. Further, population projections indicate that Hispanics will become the majority population in the state by 2020. Further, by the year 2040, Hispanics will comprise half the population for the state of Texas. Over the same time period, non Hispanic Whites will comprise approximately one third of the population with African Americans making up 9% of the state population. In Central Texas, the Hispanic population of San Antonio is expected to approach 50% while the Hispanic population of the city of Austin will grow to approximately 44%. Section 1. 4 The Future of McLennan County Demographics Page 61

500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 McLennan County Heart of Texas Region Figure 1.4.2 Projected Population Changes for McLennan County and the Heart of Texas Region (2000 2040) Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Year McLennan County Heart of Texas Region 2000 213,517 321,536 2005 221,426 333,881 2010 231,538 349,266 2015 241,694 365,071 2020 251,078 379,673 2025 259,851 393,100 2030 268,466 406,017 2035 277,042 418,583 2040 285,484 430,965 Table 1.4.3 Projected Population Changes for McLennan County and the Heart of Texas Region (2000 2040) Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Page 62

Estimates from the State Data Center for Greater Waco indicate that the area will experience a moderate growth of approximately 20% between the years 2000 and 2020. These estimates lag behind a projected growth rate of 34% for the state over the same time frame. Figure 1.4.2 graphically depicts the projected changes in the population for McLennan County and the Heart of Texas Region between the years 2010 to 2040 (see Table 1.4.3 for population details). The projected growth for the region, as well as the state of Texas, will have significant implications on the delivery of a broad range of services including early childhood education. Changes in the 0 5 population for McLennan County are projected to take a different track from the general population changes described above. The estimates reported by the Texas State Data Center indicate that this population (0 5 age group) will decrease for each ethnicity over the next three decades. Figure 1.4.4 graphically describes the projected population changes for this age group (detailed in table 1.4.5). While the reasons for this downward trend in the 0 5 population are unclear, potential factors may include the movement of the child bearing age group towards the urban centers in pursuit of employment, education or family responsibilities. Page 63

Child Population 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year Anglo African American Hispanic Other race/ethnicity Figure 1.4.4 Projected Population Changes for McLennan County, Ages 0 5, by Ethnicity (2010 2040) Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Year Total Anglo Total African American Total Hispanic Total Other Race/Ethnicity 2009 9,273 3,666 7,886 209 2010 9,150 3,642 8,215 212 2015 8,232 3,459 9,517 219 2020 8,128 3,033 5,840 125 2025 6,198 2,361 4,936 90 2030 6,929 2,662 6,101 97 2035 6,719 2,510 6,115 90 2040 6,542 2,374 5,995 80 Table 1.4.5 Population changes for McLennan County, Ages 0 5, by Ethnicity (present 2040) Source: Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Page 64

Key Points to Consider The population of the state of Texas will experience significant growth over the next three decades. The Hispanic population will become the majority by the year 2020 and make up 50% of the total population by 2040. The demographic profile of McLennan County is dynamic, undergoing changes in its overall makeup. The population of McLennan County is projected to grow 20% by the year 2020. The population of the 0 5 age group in McLennan County is expected to decline between the now and 2040. Page 65

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